A new report from Intel and Ovum contains some eye opening expectations for the growth of 5G cellular networks over the next decade. Video will account for 90 percent of 5G data use, but 5G-powered VR and AR will reach a tipping point. By 2028, gaming — not industrial use — will account for 90 percent of 5G AR data.
The report claims 5G is about to drive $1.3 trillion in new revenues to media and entertainment companies over the next decade. Ovum forecasts that user demand for video data alone will grow from a monthly average of 11.7GB per 5G subscriber in 2019 to 84.4GB in 2028, at that point accounting for 90 percent of all 5G traffic. That’s not just because videos will improve in resolution; they’ll also include additional embedded media and immersive experiences that improve the experience, and video viewing time will increase.
Within a decade, the global media industry stands to gain $1.3 trillion from 5G, according to the “5G Economics of Entertainment Report” commissioned by Intel and conducted by Ovum ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
The report states that as early as 2025, 57 percent of global wireless media revenues will be generated by using the super-high-bandwidth capabilities of 5G networks and the devices that run on 5G. The low latency of these networks means that no video will stall or stop – live streaming and large downloads will happen in the blink of an eye.
The report points to the following breakouts in revenue as 5G networks overtake 3G and 4G by offering new capabilities:
- 2022: nearly 20 percent of total revenues – $47 billion of $253 billion
- 2025: more than 55 percent of total revenues – $183 billion of $321 billion
- 2028: nearly 80 percent of total revenues – $335 billion of $420 billion
How Media Demand Drives Network Evolution:
The “5G Economics of Entertainment Report” forecasts that 5G will accelerate content consumption, including mobile media, mobile advertising, home broadband and TV, and improve experiences across a broad range of new immersive and interactive technologies – unleashing the full potential of augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR) and new media.
The average monthly traffic per 5G subscriber will grow from 11.7GB in 2019 to 84.4GB per month in 2028, at which point video will account for 90 percent of all 5G traffic.
Intel also expects major gains for both VR and AR, suggesting that “a new dawn of VR-driven experiences will emerge as early as 2025,” thanks to 5G. Beyond freeing players from cabled headsets, the report predicts that sensory experiences will be added to VR games, whereby “sensations such as heat and pressure could be bundled into a weapons upgrade in an action game.”
Augmented reality could evolve considerably as a result of 5G. The initial applications sound modest, as the report expects AR will be used to connect people to existing media through “virtual items, virtual characters, and augmented contextual information” — steps we’re already seeing with Star Wars and similar “AR stickers.” But by 2028, AR games are predicted to make up “more than 90 percent of 5G AR revenues,” or around $36 billion globally. That’s a fascinating suggestion, given that AR today is all but exclusively seeing interest from industrial and enterprise customers.
Despite the prediction of heavy video demand, Intel sees games as the key driver for 5G: “Gaming will be at the forefront of 5G-led innovations.” Initially, users will see mobile cloud gaming become a reality, as cloud-based servers do the heavy graphics and AI lifting for less powerful mobile devices. By 2028, the companies expect that 5G mobile games revenue will be $100 billion per year.
Much of the past year’s discussion of 5G has been on its potential to transform transportation, cities, and industries, with carriers, chipmakers, and even government officials suggesting it will bring about a “fourth industrial revolution.” But if today’s report is correct, the vast majority of 5G data won’t be self-driving car controls or coordinated IoT sensors, but rather video, VR, and AR. In part, that’s because entertainment content is data-intense: The report notes that one minute of AR will consume 33 times more traffic than one minute of 480p video.
According to Venture Beat’s Jeremy Horowitz, the challenge for Intel is to actually get 5G products into the marketplace. The now #2 global semiconductor company has been working on 5G modems and has shown early prototype devices, but it appears at this point to be focused on equipping computers and larger network hardware devices with 5G as rivals such as Qualcomm concentrate on 5G smartphones.
AT&T will use 700MHz low-band and 2.3GHz WCS spectrum along with millimeter wave spectrum for its 5G rollout, said Gordon Mansfield of AT&T. Separately, the company plans to use its millimeter wave Project AirGig to reach rural areas.
He also appeared to indirectly criticize the 5G-based fixed wireless access service from wireless telco rival Verizon Communications Inc. “They have to go ahead and rip out the equipment at the customer homes when they want to update,” Mansfield said, not naming Verizon’s 5G Home Service, a fixed wireless offering based on the operator’s proprietary 5GTF specification, which launched on October 1, 2018.
AT&T’s Gordon Mansfield at the Light Reading event in New York City.
Speeding up the deployment of mmWave for the mobile rather than fixed 5G will require more infrastructure integration, as Verizon seemed to acknowledge at the event.
AT&T is hopeful that its millimeter wave “Project AirGig” will be able to provide gigabit-speed backhaul in the future, especially in rural areas. The AirGig technology wirelessly rides alongside medium-voltage power lines and uses newly designed “low-cost” plastic antennas for connectivity. (See Project AirGig Goes Down to Georgia ). At the moment, “it’s a research project,” Mansfield added.
Mansfield pointed out that AT&T has already been “serving users at Magnolia Silos with [fixed] broadband 5G” since December 2017. AT&T announced that it would hold a wireless trial at the Magnolia Market at The Silos shopping complex in Waco, Texas, on December 17, 2017. The operator is using millimeter wave spectrum to deliver connectivity to shoppers, distributed via WiFi.
AT&T is expected to launch 3GPP mobile 5G in parts of 12 US markets in “late” in 2018.
From Twitter: Gordon Mansfield discusses ATT‘s 5G Evolution technology on October 9th on CheddarLIVE, chatting about the company’s vision, the technology’s impact, and its possibilities across different industries.
— by Stu Woo and Daphne Zhang with Eric Sylvers contributing to this article.
Governments start selling access to spectrum for new mobile networks that would be much faster than those of today.
A new battle for cellular airwaves (frequency spectrum) is under way as governments around the world start to auction off spectrum for mobile coverage that could power near-instant video downloads and help run factories, control gadgets and navigate driver-less cars.
Countries have long sold airwave rights for cellular service within their borders but places like Britain and Spain this year held their first major auctions for radio frequencies needed to make so-called 5G cellular networks, which could be much faster than today’s mobile networks, a reality. Italy made a splash earlier this month with a blockbuster sale—spinning off $7.6 billion of frequencies to several big European carriers, including Telecom Italia SpA and Vodafone Group PLC.
In June, South Korean mobile operators snapped up $3.3 billion of spectrum there. Next month, the Federal Communications Commission plans to hold the first major U.S. auction for 5G-friendly airwaves.
Other countries 5G auctions and amount received for same:
UK $1.8B, Spain 0.51B, Ireland 0.09B, and Finland 0.09B. Note that some governments sell spectrum in phases, rather than all at once.
The frequencies sold at these auctions are the ones that governments and carriers think will be crucial for a broad rollout of 5G, which promises to eventually replace today’s fastest 4G networks.
The broad contours of how 5G will work, once it is fully operational, is only now starting to emerge, and some industry executives and analyst are skeptical of its potential, saying the technology might not be much different than today’s 4G. U.S. carriers plan to roll out their first iterations of 5G networks in a few cities in the next three months.
Cellular airwaves are a public resource akin to a lake that provides water to businesses and homes. Governments reserve chunks of spectrum for everything that requires wireless connectivity: radio and TV broadcasts, satellites, military communications, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth and even remote controls and garage-door openers.
Only a limited amount of airwaves are suitable for cellular service, so wireless providers such as Verizon Communications Inc. and AT&T Inc. compete fiercely for them. In general, a wireless carrier with more spectrum can provide faster service and serve more people compared with a competitor with less spectrum. It also can base advertising campaigns around that fact.
Demand for 5G airwaves, or spectrum, even in this early stage, is heating up. Auctions—including for 3G and 4G and potentially in a decade for 6G—typically sell 10- or 20-year leases to airwaves, so if a carrier misses out now, it may have to wait a decade or two for its next chance.
“If you don’t have spectrum, you can’t provide wireless service,” said Steve Blythe, who heads spectrum strategy for Orange, a French carrier that operates throughout Europe and Africa.
Carriers say 5G networks will be made up of loads of small antennas much more densely packed into populated areas. Those antennas will need to operate over different frequencies than those used in today’s networks. Generally, sought-after bandwidth will be capable of transmitting more data, but over shorter distances.
Governments in each country typically hold auctions to lease channels of airwaves to wireless carriers, and proceeds go into government coffers.
Cellular providers are closely watching auctions even in countries where they don’t have a presence. In addition to trying to lock in rights to the spectrum, carriers also can learn bidding strategies and lobby regulators on what they consider to be the best auction rules.
Wireless auctions already vary widely in terms of how they work around the world, and the heightened interest in 5G has drawn extra scrutiny to some. In the Italian auction that ended Tuesday, the government reaped more than double the revenue it had forecast, drawing criticism from one prominent carrier.
Four wireless carriers essentially bought 200 chunks of airwaves that they coveted for 5G networks. But instead of auctioning off individual packages, the Italian government said wireless carriers had to buy one of four big bundles. Two bundles featured 80 chunks of airwaves each, and two packages had 20 chunks each.
Bidding for the two larger packages was fierce. In the end, the carriers spent €6.55 billion ($7.55 billion) in the auction—more than double the €2.8 billion the Italian government had written into its budget.
Vodafone, which operates in more than 20 countries and is the world’s No. 2 wireless carrier by subscribers, won one of the 80-chunk packages, spending €2.4 billion in the overall auction. But the high price it forked over caused grumbling at the London headquarters.
“Auctions should be designed to balance fiscal requirements with the need for investment,” said Vodafone Chief Executive Nick Read, in a statement. He warned against future “artificial auction constructs.”
A spokesman for Italy’s ministry of economic development, which conducted the auction, declined to comment. European wireless executives said they believed the auction’s cost was an outlier compared with other countries because both Italy’s government and wireless industry face unique circumstances.
BT-owned mobile operator EE has launched a 5G test network in Canary Wharf, London ahead of a full commercial rollout next year. As the cUK’s largest mobile operator by subscribers, the launch by EE is a landmark moment in the UK’s path to 5G.
Fotis Karonis, 5G Technology Lead at BT Group, said:
“This is the latest milestone in our 5G rollout – a live test of our 5G network, in a hugely busy ‘hotspot’, where we know there’s going to be demand from customers for increased mobile capacity.
With constant upgrades to 4G, and laying the foundations for 5G, we’re working to always be able to deliver what our customers need – both consumers and the vertical industries that will make the greatest use of 5G.
We were UK pioneers with 4G and today we saw the UK’s first live connections on 5G – this is a huge step forward for our digital infrastructure.”
EE announced it would be launching the 5G network back in June, promising it to be the UK’s first proper test. Some expected mobile operator O2 to beat it after plans to launch its own test bed at the O2 Arena, but EE was first to market.
The current network covers Montgomery Square in Canary Wharf and was selected by EE for its high footfall and data usage. Some 150,000 people visit the square each day, providing a better test of how the network will perform in high traffic areas.
Mark Nallen, Head of Technology and Innovation at Canary Wharf Group, commented:
“Staying at the forefront of connectivity and new technologies is critical to our community, and that’s why we’re partnering with BT Group to support delivery of 5G.
The consumers who live and work here will benefit from being better connected, and the enterprises based here will have the chance to partner with BT Group to understand the full capabilities of 5G.”
The equipment at the site will also be hooked up to a lab core network, which functions as a replica of EE’s commercial core network, and will link up to other test sites as and when they come online. Walling it off also means that it’s possible to test 5G in whatever ways are necessary without having any impact on existing services.
Another testbed is set to launch in Shoreditch later this year, which will present different challenges to the Montgomery Square tests. Mainly because it isn’t as ‘clean’ an area. Exactly when it will happen isn’t clear yet.
EE is using network equipment by Huawei for its test; along with 3.4 GHz spectrum it won in regulator Ofcom’s auction earlier this year. The use of Huawei’s equipment continues to be a controversial subject.
In Europe, Huawei is relatively welcome and its highly-regarded equipment used by many operators. Australia, however, recently took the decision to follow the U.S. in banning the Chinese vendor’s equipment over national security concerns.
The U.S. and Australia are part of the ‘Five Eyes’ intelligence sharing partnership which also includes the UK, Canada, and New Zealand. The US is said to be pressuring its partners to follow suit.
Last month, Canadian security officials went on record to say the country has the necessary safeguards in place not to follow the bans of the US and Australia. Canada is attempting to make the case to its partners that excluding telecoms equipment manufacturers leads to an increased security risk. If a specific vendor’s equipment is compromised, it would represent a larger proportion of the network.
Rather than ban Huawei, the UK and Canada have both established labs where security officials test equipment for potential vulnerabilities.
Testing equipment rather than banning seems to be a more sensible approach. This week, India announced it would be testing Huawei 5G gear. Competition is good for prices and innovation, while bans would prevent companies such as EE from accessing potentially class-leading equipment.
1. Vodafone Italy, which competes with Telecom Italia (TIM), has acquired spectrum to enable the deployment of 5G technology for €2.4 billion during the 5G spectrum auction that fetched $7.6 billion for the Government.
The Italian Government will collect 1,250 million euros from all mobile operators during the current year, 50 million in 2019, 300 million in 2020, 150 million in 2021, and the remaining in 2022 from the 5G auction.
Though telecom operators will be releasing the spectrum auction money in the next five years, it will pose challenges to the telecom industry in Italy. Bloomberg reports that 5G spectrum auction in Italy was a record as compared with the auction in South Korea.
“Spectrum auctions should be designed to balance fiscal requirements with the need for investment to enable economic development. It is critical that European governments avoid artificial auction constructs which fail to strike a healthy balance for the industry,” Nick Read said in a statement.
Vodafone Italy, the second largest telecom operator, posted €1.231 billion revenue registering 6.5 percent drop in the first quarter ended 30 June 2018 against 0.7 percent increase in Q4 of previous fiscal.
Vodafone Italy and other operators are facing competition following the launch of a new entrant in late May. Vodafone Italy launched a new secondary brand to specifically address the needs of customers in the value segment of the market.
Vodafone Italy said the 5G spectrum will deliver network operating cost efficiency to meet the expected future growth in data traffic.
Vodafone Italy is buying 3700 MHz – 80 MHz for €1,685 million, 700 MHz – 2 x 10 MHz FDD for €683 million and 26 GHz – 200 MHz for €33 million.
Vodafone Italy will be using the 3700 MHz spectrum to enhance coverage, improve capacity, and for rapid development of 5G services. Vodafone Italy did not reveal the timing of its planned 5G launch in Italy.
Vodafone Italy will also utilize the 700 MHz spectrum, when it is available from 2022, to deploy 5G services, providing nationwide coverage at very high speed and very low latency for including IoT, virtual and augmented reality, connected vehicles and robotics. This indicates that Vodafone Italy will be playing in both the business and consumer markets of 5G to improve ARPU.
Vodafone Italy said it can also use the 26 GHz spectrum to deliver high capacity services in densely populated locations such as city centres, sports stadiums or industrial plants.
Vodafone said it is leading 5G trials promoted by the Ministry for Economic Development in Milan and its metropolitan area. Vodafone 5G network has already achieved coverage of 80 percent of Milan and targeting 80 percent 5G coverage in its metropolitan area by December 2018.
2. Telecom Italia (TIM) has obtained 5G frequencies for an 80MHz block of 3700 MHz for 1,694 million euros and a 200MHz block of 26 GHz for 33 million euros.
In addition to the two blocks of 700 MHz, TIM’s total investment in the 5G spectrum auction will be 2,407 million euros.
“The switch on of the antenna in Bari certifies TIM’s technological primacy in 5G space in Italy,” Amos Genish said.
Investment in 5G network is an important part of the TIM strategy for sprucing up revenue in Italy. TIM’s telecom business in Italy has posted 7.454 billion euros in revenue in the first half of 2018 against 7.494 billion euros in the same period 2017.
TIM 5G will be focusing on both consumer and business customers. Consumer business of TIM’s telecom business in Italy has reported 3.753 billion euros in revenue, while 2.333 billion euros came from business customers and 860 million euros from wholesale business in Italy.
TIM will use 3700 MHz and 26 GHz to leverage the testing already underway in Turin, Bari and Matera and in the Republic of San Marino.
TIM has started to implement services for the Smart City targeting public security, transport, environmental monitoring, healthcare, tourism and culture, in San Marino.
The 3700 MHz band, already used for the tests launched at the start of the year, is available immediately.
TIM will use 26 GHz millimetre wave band, which will be available from 2019, to conduct road test for the first 5G services. TIM will use the 700 MHz frequencies, available from 2022, to strengthen UBB coverage, including in indoor areas, with the implementation of 5G technology.
TIM said its 4G mobile broadband coverage reached over 98 percent of the population in Italy and fixed broadband reached 80 percent of homes via FTTC and FTTH technology.
After a meeting with key telecom executives, the Trump administration said it wants to help the wireless industry deploy “5G” quickly. National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said that 5G support aligns with lower-tax and deregulation policies that encourage private sector growth, adding the U.S. supports an “America-first, 5G-first” approach.
Federal Communications Commission Chairman Ajit Pai called the development of 5G technology “a national imperative for economic growth and competitiveness.”
Pai said 5G networks could effectively remove speed and capacity as meaningful constraints on wireless innovation and could be 100 times faster than current networks.
“The lag time between a device’s request for data and the network’s response will be less than one-tenth of what it is today,” he said. “Wireless networks that today support 1,000 connected devices per square kilometer could instead support 1 million” and could eventually lead to capabilities such as remote surgical procedures, he said.
Administration officials said they have high hopes for the technology that has the potential to help create 3 million new jobs, $275 billion in private investment, and $500 billion in new economic growth.
Although other U.S. government agencies like the FCC and the NTIA have long dealt in spectrum and network deployment issues, the White House summit last Friday was the first major signal by the Trump administration that it also wants to play an active role in smoothing regulations for 5G rollouts. The summit collected executives from the wireless industry with officials from the Trump administration—including Larry Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council, and Michael Kratsios, deputy U.S. CTO and deputy assistant to the President at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, the agency that held the event—along with top House and Senate lawmakers and officials from the FCC and the NTIA.
Officials described the event as an opportunity for White House representatives to listen to wireless industry executives and to learn ways the Trump administration can play a role in 5G.
5G networks will rely on denser arrays of small antennas and the cloud to offer data speeds up to 50 or 100 times faster than current 4G networks and serve as critical infrastructure for a range of industries.
Congress and regulators are also working to free up more wireless spectrum for use by 5G networks and improve other regulations to make it easier to deploy fiber lines, which are critical for 5G traffic from small cells.
In addition to providing vastly greater speed, 5G will allow transportation networks to link connected and self-driving cars, while new wireless sensors will provide real-time health monitoring and other advanced applications.
White House National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said on Friday the 5G race will be won “principally through the free enterprise, free market economy.”
CTIA, a wireless industry trade group representing Sprint Corp, AT&T Inc, Samsung Electronics Co Ltd and Intel Corp, said in a statement after the summit, “We completely agree with the administration, the FCC … and congressional leaders that free market American leadership in 5G is vital for our economy, private investment and future innovation.”
The FCC on Wednesday voted to eliminate regulatory barriers to 5G deployment. Pai said the measure would cap fees that cities could charge to install small cells and requires local governments to promptly review applications. According to Pai, 5G networks will need 800,000 cell sites, mostly small cells no bigger than a backpack, or about four times the existing number of sites.
Kudlow said federal law allows the FCC to override localities on this issue. “We’re not here to be completely heavy-handed but sometimes you have to do what you got to do,” he said at the summit.
Rep. Walden noted that the U.S. needs to protect and encourage the supply chain for 5G. Although he did not discuss any specific policies or positions, he did say that “there are some who think we can simply ban vendors from American markets, but the marketplace for hardware and software is global.”
Those comments are particularly noteworthy given that the FCCembarked on a proposal to tacitly block any network operator—big and small—from using Universal Service Funds to purchase equipment from companies that pose a security threat. That proceeding at the FCC is widely seen as an attempt by the U.S. government to block Chinese network equipment vendors Huawei from competing in the market.
Walden did not name Huawei and also did not go into specifics of his position on the topic. No other speakers at the event discussed supply chain issues in their public remarks.
Separately, mid-band spectrum received a notable amount of attention from the likes of Rep. Walden and NTIA’s Redl. Speakers generally argued that a robust 5G marketplace will use a wide range of spectrum, from low-band spectrum to high-band spectrum. Officials and lawmakers acknowledged that the FCC is working to auction high-band spectrum starting in November, but several speakers called on regulators to release more mid-band spectrum for wireless network operators and others.
And Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., also noted that both licensed and unlicensed spectrum should be made available in the marketplace.
After the meeting, CTIA President and CEO Meredith Attwell Baker said in a statement that “it was especially noteworthy that today’s event focused so much on the need to free up more mid-band spectrum for commercial wireless use to help meet this goal and to keep up with skyrocketing consumer demand for mobile data. We look forward to continuing this important dialogue with the Administration and policymakers to make 5G a reality.”
However, FCC Commissioner Jessica Rosenworcel, a Democrat, sounded a note of caution on Friday. “As a result of our escalating trade war with China, by the end of this year we will have a 25 percent duty on antennas, switches, and routers – the essential network facilities needed for 5G deployment,” she said.
India’s 5G Congress 2018, held September 19th and 20th in New Delhi, witnessed top policy makers, industry leaders, experts and observers deliberating on the future roadmap for the 5G rollout in India. The theme of the conference was ‘Developing a Roadmap for the Next Wireless Revolution.’ The first edition of the conference was held in 2017.
According to the 2018 conference brochure:
5G will be the key driver for Digital India initiatives. 5G is set to overtake 4G in India by 2020, and the backhaul equipment makers and network carriers are already developing the next-generation of mobile communication. The increase in the number of smart phone subscribers in India has led to a huge demand for data traffic, prompting network operators to upgrade their infrastructure. Currently, several 5G trials are being conducted in India by network operators and equipment providers in collaboration. The 5G-enabled digitization revenue is likely to be around $25.9 billion by 2026 while the 5G-enabled industry revenue is expected to add around $13 billion to operator revenue.
As per the industry predictions, India will be 5G enable by 2020 and this will further push the government’s digital delivery of services through the Digital India. 5G will not only improve the internet speed and QoS in the country but will also enable the digital transformation of services such as healthcare, education, entertainment, agriculture and manufacturing. The Make in India initiative will help in providing low-cost and high quality 5G mobile devices and telecom equipment in the market.
5G India Congress aims to become India’s best platform for all stakeholders including network operators, Government & technology providers to come together to discuss about the 5G development for next generation communications in India.
–>You can watch video highlights of the 5G Congress here.
Manoj Sinha, Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Ministry of Communications and Minister of State for Railways, Government of India, was the chief speaker at the conference. Addressing the delegates he said, “We cannot afford to miss the 5G bus for India. The significance of 5G for India cannot be overlooked. 5G will help us leapfrog infrastructure challenges and bridge the digital divide.” The India minister added, “5G is not an incremental technology but an integration of systems. Its economic impact alone will have about $1 trillion by 2035.”
Gopal Vittal, CEO, Bharti Airtel, said, “5G is going to be a game changer and will have massive impact but to get this happen we will have to come together.” He further said that the Indian government needs to get the spectrum price right for investments to continue. The government must relook at the prices set for the upcoming 5G spectrum auction. Vittal added that the return on capital in the industry is lower than 1%, while the price is significantly high.
Gopal continued, “We need at least 100 MHz of contiguous blocks of spectrum per operator and the pricing needs to be relooked. The government should further empower 5G high-level forum and allocate E and V bands. The fifth-generation, or 5G technology, will fulfill India’s larger socio-economic aspirations and create new job opportunities.”
Balesh Sharma, CEO of Vodafone-Idea, added, “5G is going to be an evolution but not a revolution.” He further said, “Smart City and Digital India will ride on 5G.” “5G, which is going to impact all industries, will need massive amount of spectrum at low cost and massive amount of fibre at site level,” said Mr. Vittal.
R S Sharma, Chairman, Telecom Regulatory Authority of India, said, “We need to promote huge investment to ensure there is required infrastructure in place to make 5G a success.” He added, “Regulations need to be there not to throttle 5G but to facilitate it.”
The experts speaking at the conference generally felt that the country may see the initial rollout of 5G in late 2019 or early 2020. Nitin Bansal, Managing Director, Ericsson India, said, “We are looking at 2020 as the timeline for 5G deployment in India.” “India will keep its date with 5G in 2020,” added Sanjay Malik, Head of India Market, Nokia.
Speaking about the union government’s efforts to drive 5G, Aruna Sundararajan, Secretary, Department of Telecommunications, Govt of India, said, “We are working with states to remove constraints from ‘right of way’ to fibre optics.”
Marie Hogan, Head of Broadband & IoT, Business Area Networks, Ericsson, said, “5G will generate additional revenue opportunities of about $13 billion for India.”
Smart City and Digital India initiatives will ride on 5G, said Balesh Sharma. He added, “Enhanced mobile broadband, mission critical communication and Massive IoT are prime use cases of 5G.”
Speaking about the current broadband penetration in India and the future potential, Ryan Perera, Country Manager, Ciena, said, “Twenty-seven percent is the current broadband penetration in India.
Israel Ministry of Communications director general Netanel (Nati) Cohen will try to interest overseas telecommunications companies in taking part in fifth generation cellular trials in Israel. Cohen will also try to introduce American investors into the Israeli telecommunications market. Cohen is accompanying Minister of Communications Ayoob Kara, who is part of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s entourage for his visit to New York to attend the UN General Assembly.
The ministry’s idea is to try to restore interest in the Israeli telecommunications market on the part of international companies, which have refrained from investment in Israel in recent years. The plan is to provide incentives in the form of rebates in exchange for acquiring frequencies and rolling out the network.
During his visit to New York, Mr. Cohen will reportedly meet with representatives of US telecoms giant Verizon and propose that the company should participate in 5G trials to be held at Bar Ilan University in conjunction with Israeli mobile carriers. Meetings will also be held with representatives of Lockheed Martin, with the aim of persuading the company to expand its investment in Israel.
The idea is also to conduct trials in IoT (Internet of Things), and to take advantage of the fact that there are many technology companies in Israel in areas of interest to the US companies, and to bring them into the initiative as well.
Mobile carriers throughout the world have been cutting back on investment in new wireless infrastructure, because of the fierce competition in the industry and the erosion of revenue. At the same time, no solution has been found for the high fees that the carriers pay the state for frequencies, which result in them foregoing frequency allocations simply because they cannot meet the fee payments.
Israel government ministries have hired the services of InfoSight Consulting, which is working together with Beta Finance to formulate for the state a new frequency fee structure, as the high payments that the companies make for frequencies, around New Israeli Shekel (currency in Israel) 300 million annually, diminish their incentive to invest and represent a heavy tax on them.
The state will probably try to find a formula whereby carriers will pay more for “quality” frequencies, and much less for lower-quality high frequencies. In any event, the model will be determined before the fifth generation auction slated to take place this December. The new generation of networks will allow considerably faster data transfer.
Intel Israel and 5G:
Elkana Ben Sinai, VP, Intel Israel said: “Intel wants to serve this market. Its vision is to be a data-centric company, dealing best with data through all its stages: collection, transmission, processing storage. It wants to make use of huge computing, storage, and its artificial intelligence and communication capabilities – very few companies have these combinations. And 5G is the leading technology to implement the ‘transmission’ part of this vision.”
For Intel, this means that its innovative products, already ubiquitous, will be even more so.
“New hardware will basically be in all aspects: data collection by new sensors (e.g. Mobileye), communication (e.g 5G), computing (e.g artificial intelligence),” Ben Sinai says. An ambitious move into the mobile phone market is also in the offing, as it is “certainly an ingredient” in Intel’s wider vision.
And Intel Israel, he says, is a “very important design center of Intel Corporation, leading some of its strategic developments in the area of computing, communication, security and more.”
Automotive and cybersecurity
Intel also has another edge. Last year, the company acquired the Jerusalem-based Mobileye, a developer of cutting-edge autonomous driving technologies, for a whopping $15.3 billion. Mobileye is considered a leader in advanced driver assistance systems – including pedestrian detection, collision warning – aimed to prevent road collisions.
The acquisition marked Intel’s entry into the vibrant automotive market, and the industry plays a central role in Intel’s vision for the future.
Huawei and Intel announced they have completed a standalone 5G call test based on 3GPP Release 15 spec for the third phase of China’s 5G technology R&D trials.
The trial, organized by China’s IMT-2020 promotion group, was conducted at the group’s laboratory using a Huawei 5G base station and core network and Intel’s 3rd generation “5G Mobile Trial Platform.” (It’s astonishing that it’s the 3rd generation of 5G when the IMT 2020 5G standard won’t be completed for over two years!)
Utilizing the 3.5-GHz frequency band, Huawei and Intel tested full stack initial access, registration and radio bearer establishment with the 5G new radio resource control (NR RCC) and non-access stratum (NR NAS) protocol stack.
Intel and Huawei completed non-standalone 5G interoperability and development testing in June in collaboration with China Mobile, and the two vendors commenced field trials for China’s third-phase 5G R&D test in August.
“Huawei will continue focus on system commercialization in the Third-Phase 5G R&D test, and together with industry partners will promote 5G business success,” Yang added.
“The completion of the SA (stand alone) test, based on the R15 protocol, is another important milestone for Huawei in China’s third-phase 5G R&D test. Huawei will continue focus on system commercialization in the 5G R&D test, and together with industry partners will promote 5G business success,” said Yang Chaobin, president of Huawei’s 5G product line.
“Intel’s 5G Mobile Trial Platform has been a key technology in enabling global 5G testing and will help to define the future use cases for 5G. Now that the interoperability test for the Standalone architecture in the third-phase 5G R&D test has been completed, we are a step closer to the commercialization of 5G and to delivering the powerful user experiences that it will bring,” said Asha Keddy, VP and GM of next generation and standards at Intel.
China’s national 5G tests:
China’s 5G R&D tests, which are being carried out by the IMT-2020 (5G) promotion group, started in 2016 and are expected to be concluded by the end of this year. These tests involve three phases: key technologies testing, the verification of technology and solution and 5G system verification.
The IMT-2020 (5G) promotion group was jointly established in 2013 by the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Science and Technology, based on the original IMT-Advanced Promotion Group. In China, it is the primary platform through which 5G research and international exchange and cooperation is conducted.
Operators participating in the IMT-2020 Promotion Group include: China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom and Japanese telecoms operator NTT DoCoMo. Vendors which are part of the initiative are Huawei, ZTE, Ericsson, Nokia, Datang and Samsung. A number of chipset and test measurement vendors, including Qualcomm, Intel, Mediatek, Ctec, Keysight Technologies and Rohde & Schwartz are also part of the initiative.
The IMT-2020 Promotion Group completed the initial phase of its trial program in 2016. That phase included testing wireless technologies including massive multiple-input-multiple-output, novel multiple access, new waveforms, advance coding, ultra-dense network implementations and high-frequency communications. The trial phase also included network slicing, edge computing and network function reconstruction. The second phase of the national 5G tests were fully completed during last year.
Earlier this year, the Chinese government had authorized carriers to test 5G technology in major cities across the country. Under this initiative, state-run telcos are the process of deploying 5G networks in 16 cities to trial the technology.
Intel and Ericsson meanwhile completed the first end-to-end nonstandalone 5G data call in July during a trial at Ericsson’s lab in Sweden.
Asia-Pacific’s mobile operators are expected to have a combined 477 million 5G subscriptions by 2023, according to a new report “Mobile Broadband Trends in Asia-Pacific” by GlobalData. The market research firm said that it expects the first 5G service launches by operators in the region next year.
Total mobile users in Asia-Pacific are meanwhile on track to reach 2.87 billion by the end of the year, growing to 3.3 billion by the end of 2023, for a CAGR of 2.8%. Subscription growth will be driven by the expansion of wireless networks in underserved markets, GlobalData predicted.
4G-LTE will become the dominant mobile technology by share of subscriptions this year, outnumbering 2G for the first time. The total LTE market share is on track to nearly double by the end of the forecast period in 2023 driven by continuous expansion of LTE networks by operators in the region.
Data services revenue is meanwhile predicted to account for 60.3% of total mobile service revenue generated by operators in the region between 2018 and 2023.
GlobalData has also estimated that MVNOs in Asia-Pacific have around 194 million subscribers, accounting for 4% of the total market.
The “Mobile Broadband Trends in Asia-Pacific” report provides in-depth analysis of the following:
– Section 1: Asia-Pacific in global context; the section provides comparison of Asia-Pacific mobile telecom market size and trends with other regions.
– Section 2: Competitive dynamics; this section provides competitive analysis of various MNOs and MVNOs in Asia-Pacific’s mobile market.
– Section 3: Mobile broadband subscription trends in Asia-Pacific; a demand profile and analysis as well as historical figures and forecasts of service revenue from the mobile voice and mobile data markets.
– Section 4: Mobile broadband revenue trends in Asia-Pacific; examines changes in the breakdown of overall revenue and ARPU over 2018-2023. –
– Section 5: Key findings and recommendations; it consists of a summary of the key findings for Asia-Pacific mobile broadband market.
An earlier related whitepaper by Frost and Sullivan stated the following:
The 5G landscape in Asia
Within Asia, South Korea and Japan are likely to be the first nations in the region to commercialize 5G. Both are attempting to capitalize on the upcoming Olympic Games in 2018 and 2020, respectively, where 5G will be showcased as an enabler of new forms of content delivery. However, one notable aspect of 5G in Asia is that, unlike in other regions, initial network uptake will not be limited to developed countries. Rapidly developing countries, such as India and China, will be important market leaders as well because of the massive size of their populations and growing middle classes. Even if a small portion of consumers and businesses in these countries adopt 5G at first, the likelihood of reaching profitability earlier is high. Further, ambitious digital initiatives in both countries have spurred strong government support of 5G rollout.
Indicators that Asia will set the global benchmark in 5G are evident. Piloting of 5G technology has already taken place, and small commercial launches are expected in South Korea by 2019, with larger rollouts unfolding in China and Japan by 2020. Rollout in India is not expected until after 2020 due to financial and infrastructure-related challenges, but mobile network operators are already strategizing ways to leapfrog to 5G. Despite delays compared with countries like South Korea and China, once commercialized, uptake should be relatively swift in India given strong backing from the Indian government, spectrum availability, and a large, addressable, market driving scale.
Device compliance is another indicator of Asia’s market readiness for 5G. Device manufacturers in Asia, such as ZTE, have already unveiled 5G-ready smartphones, further underscoring Asia’s commitment to 5G development.
As a whole, Asia is likely to account for just under half of all 5G subscriptions globally through 2022. By 2022, we expect regional revenue from 5G subscriptions to reach $4.5 billion and subscriptions to grow to over 280 million (or 49% of global totals). While this will represent only a fraction of all mobile subscriptions, growth for such a short period will be healthy.