Month: January 2016
Analysis of AT&Ts Earnings & Comparison with T Mobile by David Dixon of FBR
AT&T reported largely mixed 4Q results that included one full quarter of Direct TV results. While subscriber metrics were generally in line to modestly better, financial metrics missed the mark.
Given intensifying competition, we think the company has shifted focus on improving profitability over subscriber growth. We believe AT&T has been relegated to this path given T-Mobile”s continuing net add momentum. Furthermore, with iPhone 6S supporting Band 12, T-Mobile should see improved coverage using its 700 MHz A Block spectrum.
We also expect AT&T to be affected by the eSIM in the iPhone 7, which will increase churn risk for the wireless carrier industry. Recent increases to monthly data allowance and free music streaming at T Mobile suggests the company may not be as capacity constrained as the Street believes; however, our re-seller checks are highlighting significant network coverage-based challenges within the T-Mobile subscriber base.
While T-Mobile is still a net spectrum acquirer, we believe leveraging WiFi-first calling may have been more successful than the company had expected, resulting in more generous data allowances.
On the wireline front, competition from Google Fiber and cable companies high speed internet services have forced AT&T to continue to build out GigaPower, a negative NPV, but strategically important, asset.
Key Points:
* 4Q15 results recap: Including the full month of DTV results (the Direct TV acquisition closed on 7/24/15), consolidated revenues increase 22.3% YOY to $42.1B, below consensus of $42.7B.
Business Solutions revenue of $18.2B, Entertainment and Internet Services revenue of $13.0B, Consumer Mobility revenue of $8.7B, and International revenue of $1.8B. Adjusted EBITDA of $12.2B were also short of Street expectations of $12.9B. EBITDA margins improved by 160 bps YOY to 29.1%, driven by increased cost efficiencies in Business Solutions and contributions from Direct TV within the Entertainment group. Mobility postpaid net adds of 526,000 and prepaid net adds of 469,000, compared to consensus of 485,000 and 354,000, respectively. Postpaid churn was 1.18%.
* Potential for spectrum acquisitions and asset sales. While AT&T has not committed an exact amount for the 600 MHz incentive auction, management has been clear that it would like to acquire two 10 MHz blocks.
We believe there is growing urgency to shed less profitable businesses, such as consumer wireline, to fund spectrum purchases.
* FY16 guidance maintained. Management maintained prior issued guidance of double-digit consolidated revenue growth, adjusted EPS growth of mid single digits, or better, stable consolidated margins, and $22B in capex.
FBR Comments:
Declining iPhone churn confirmed that the loss of exclusivity and resurgence of T-Mobile were manageable.
Extended upgrade eligibility, upgrade fees, and accelerated upgrade opportunities through AT&T Next have material margin implications, and we expect continued discipline on upgrade eligibility, even in the event of flow share to Verizon and T-Mobile.
With the LTE network buildout complete and AT&T diversifying into Mexico to alleviate churn pressures, further changes to upgrade eligibility are likely. 6 to 12 Months Can AT&T drive earnings growth? Smartphone activations remain significant.
Strategic initiatives with Samsung and Google, coupled with support of the Windows Phone ecosystem by MSFT, NOK, and other OEMs, are key to lower wireless subsidy pressure, but it is early days.
We think AT&T will continue to consider pricing action to augment growth once the LTE network build is complete, but competitive intensity is likely to increase in FY16, so this will prove difficult absent consolidation or until T-Mobile becomes spectrum challenged, which we think is still one year away and a function of T-Mobile commitment to continue network investment. Timeframe: 6 to 18 Months
How will AT&T fare in the changing wireless landscape in 2016 and beyond?
Our strategic concerns for AT&T include:
1) the Apple eSIM impact, should Apple be successful in striking wholesale agreements;
(2) the Google MVNO impact, which could strip the company of the last bastion of connectivity revenue; and
(3) a Wi-Fi first network from Comcast, coupled with a wholesale agreement with a carrier, which would enable a competitor and increase pricing pressure. Timeframe: 6 to 18 Months
Does AT&T have a sustainable spectrum advantage compared with other carriers?
AT&T is behind Verizon in spectrum and out of spectrum in numerous major markets, according to our vendor checks. However, with additional density investment, it is reasonably well positioned to benefit from the combination of coverage layer (700 MHz and 850 MHz) and capacity layer (1,700 MHz and 1,900 MHz and soon-to-be-confirmed 2,300 MHz) spectrum and will focus on LTE and LTE Advanced, as well as refarming 850 MHz/1,900 MHz spectrum for additional coverage and capacity.
Yet this non-standard LTE band will cost more capex and take longer to implement. In the short run, aggressive cell splitting is expected, and metro Wi-Fi and small-cell solutions with economic backhaul solutions are becoming available, allowing for greater surgical reuse of existing spectrum. Sprint differentiation through Clearwire spectrum in FY16 is only likely to modestly affect AT&T relative to Verizon. Furthermore, with 70% 80% of wireless data traffic on Wi-Fi and only 20% of capacity utilized, this suggests a focus in this area to manage data usage growth.
We expect AT&Ts wireless segment to continue to be challenged by a resurgent T-Mobile US. We are less bullish on near-term improvements in capex intensity, due to cultural challenges associated with the much-needed migration to software-centric networks, coupled with the need to upgrade its fiber plant aggressively to improve its competitive positioning and lay the foundation for efficiency improvement.
Risks:
Outperformance at AT&T, Inc. depends on a sustainable economic recovery. Revenue pressures could accelerate in the event of a further economic slowdown, and cost cutting could be inhibited by increased competitive intensity.
Incremental capital spending remains high within the telecommunications segment, driven by technological and competitive challenges. As a result, the inability to control costs effectively could result in downward pressure on free cash flow and affect the sustainability of the company’s current dividend policy.
Overall industry risks continue to center on pricing pressure, particularly in the business segment and accelerated wireless substitution in the consumer segment. Economic recovery factors continue to play key roles in a sector where growth in wireless subscribers, growth in revenue from existing subscribers, and enhanced wireline services are large determinants of growth.
Regulatory uncertainty also continues to play a significant role in the valuation outlook for both the wireline and wireless sectors; therefore, the regulatory landscape must be watched carefully.
Analysis of Sprint’s Earnings Report & Network Strategy by David Dixon, FBR
Sprint’s turnaround story continues with another quarter of positive postpaid net add growth and historically low churn. We believe recent pricing action, coupled with evidence of broader network improvements, bodes well. Positive subscriber momentum confirms that Sprint’s turnaround is beginning to gain traction.
We are encouraged that roughly the majority of Sprint’s customer base is using tri band devices. Sprint achieved positive net adds with its aggressive 50%-off offer despite recent price increases (unlimited data plan increased to $70/month from $60/ month). This offer appears to be accretive, as many customers are buying additional data for a similar price they paid to Verizon and AT&T.
Lack of Free Cash Flow continues to drive the network strategy, which is getting underway at a lower cost trajectory than expected by the market; Sprint provided more details around the new device lease facility in partnership with SoftBank.
Looking ahead, we see an improved liquidity position as Sprint extends its leasing focus to the financing of cell site installation and equipment on more favorable terms than Sprint’s current, unsecured, high-yield bond rate, which should further improve Sprint’s cost structure.
Key Points:
■ Management raised FY15 and FY16 adjusted EBITDA guidance. As a result of cost savings and revenue growth, the adjusted EBITDA trajectory is improving faster than expected. Management raised fiscal-2015 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $7.7B–$8B. Its preliminary estimate for fiscal-2016 adjusted EBITDA is in the range of $9.5B–$10B, substantially higher than consensus estimates. We are confident management can drive out further network head-count costs as it leans on Google to assist with network planning and backhauls traffic inside 2.5 GHz, instead of through leased fiber backhaul.
■ Network update. Performance is benefiting from optimized NV markets. Planning for the small cell pivot is underway, but equipment orders remain light. The initial focus is outdoor urban, where there is no WiFi option, so customer churn risk is highest and roaming expense can be minimized. The major risk is that Mobilitie, the network financing installation partner, promises Sprint the world at one-third of the cost, gets early wins on easy site locations, but does not get the key sites where Google tells Sprint it needs them. Mobilitie may have to fail before vendors help. This will become clearer by the end of 1Q16.
Sprint Network Performance Improving Due to Network Vision Optimization
Independent network checks and Sprint reseller checks confirm improving network coverage relative to T Mobile US and Sprint is closing the gap with AT&T and Verizon. However relative performance metrics are already declining in Chicago because the company spent too long messing around with the wrong network strategy. Management now appears to be on the right path and should be able to add capacity quickly and cheaply as long as they continue to hold Mobilitie’s feet to the fire. Mobilitie should have good early successes but the key will be its success in the harder to locate but most important dense urban areas in major cities.
LTE is available in all markets and the LTE plus network (i.e. Carrier aggregation 2 x 20MHz of 2.5GHz) is now in 150 markets. Downlink cell edge performance is 10x faster when the company adds 2.5GHz to a 1.9GHz cell site. While there is no change to the uplink performance (due to 2.5GHz having weaker propagation than 1.9GHz) the downlink is served by the wider, high power downlink channel increasing cell edge speed from 500kbps to 5Mbps based on our checks. The company noted peak speeds of 100Mbps are possible and is marketing on this basis. The question is how sustainable can this improved performance be. We believe 2.5GHz is the key to sustainability. Adding capacity is cheap if you have spectrum. The percentage of time customers are on the LTE network at 94% is also very encouraging with respect to VoLTE.
In our view, to achieve network superiority relative to Verizon and AT&T, Sprint will need to establish greater network consistency. This is not possible, in our view, without the consolidation with TMobile, as the company does not have sufficient cash flow to invest in high-cost network coverage in the near to medium term. We believe senior management understands that establishing network superiority in two years will be very difficult (perhaps five years is more realistic) but continues to drive at this lofty goal.
The concern is execution. Engineers are incented to take short cuts on vendor interoperability due to this aggressive target. However 2.5GHz is the jewel in the crown and the company has a terrific head start on the competition which is looking forward to the 3.5GHz band to provide it with a similar low cost spectrum portfolio to address metro capacity challenges. The 2.5GHz band is excellent for indoor coverage, outdoor densification with pico cells, and good as an (initial) wireless backhaul solution.
Clearwire’s established backhaul network is also a viable alternative to fiber backhaul. We believe the company continues to focus on outdoor small cells first, vs. indoor coverage using crowd sourcing data to determine where its pain points are and where the highest roaming expense to VZ occurs. We are encouraged that in region roaming expense continues to fall significantly as many coverage holes have been filled and software solutions have been found to prevent phones from roaming on the high cost Verizon network.
Update on Sprint’s Low-Cost Densification Program:
Outdoor Pico Cells Sprint shares have been volatile following the Re/Code article this month which suggested that Sprint will be decommissioning cell sites as part of the new lower cost network strategy. Management clarified that this is not correct, and we believe that the cost savings reported were against what the company may have spent using established vendors, not what they actually spend. Therefore we believe there is limited revenue risk to the tower segment which extend for the next 5- 7 years, but may lower future revenue streams which we do not believe the market has factored in due to the company’s weak balance sheet and expectations for consolidation over this time frame.
How can Sprint leverage its 2.5 GHz spectrum portfolio to improve network quality?
2.5 GHz spectrum is the basis of Sprint s LTE plus network and makes up the bulk of Sprint’s spectrum portfolio. Sprint controls approximately 120 MHz of 2.5 GHz spectrum in 90% of the top 100 U.S. markets. If Softbank can create low-cost Pico and CPE solutions using 2.5 GHz spectrum to densify its network, Sprint will have the potential to become the lowest-cost and fastest data network among the national carriers that are migrating to a greater dependency on low-cost Wi-Fi spectrum ahead of a migration to low-cost, shared LTE spectrum in the 3.5 GHz band and beyond.
Timeframe: 12 to 24 Months
How can the company shift away from expensive coverage improvement but still improve network quality?
Sprint is shifting away from high-cost macro coverage improvement to less costly surgical capacity improvement. Despite network coverage improvement from Network Vision (NV), substantial coverage gaps still exist, and network congestion is compounding challenges. Network quality remains poor in the eyes of consumers. The good news is that 2.5 GHz deployment will be quick (though now targeted), and in the postpaid segment, management has cleared the decks of 3G devices and is focusing on tri-band devices, which may provide 3G refarming opportunities at 1.9 GHz. LTE is now used by the postpaid segment 94% of the time. Key will be clearing 3G devices in the prepaid and wholesale segments.
Timeframe: 12 to 24 Months
Sprint’s Pricing Promotion:
Aggressive pricing promotion appears to be revenue accretive Sprint offered 50% off the price off most Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile rate plans during the biggest switching period of the year. Results exceeded expectations in terms of customer demand and the number of lines per account that were coming in. Sprint has extended the offer for another month. Management calculates the average customer life value of this year’s additions is 33% higher than a year ago. Furthermore, Sprint’s share of industry postpaid phone gross adds increased by 150 basis points year-over-year to the highest level in almost 3 years. Revenue accretion is a function of incoming customers paying similar to what they paid Verizon or AT&T as they are taking more data. Furthermore, Sprint is seeing a lot more multi line customers. As a result average billing per account and per user is increasing. Postpaid average billing per account is up 4% YOY while average billing per user (i.e. service plus handset revenue) is up 3% YOY. Higher installment billings and lease revenues more than offset the lower monthly service charges offered in conjunction with device financing options as well as the fact that average lines per account increased 5% year-over-year. Total service revenues plus installment billings and lease revenues of $7.1B increased 1% year-overyear. In terms of device leasing 65% of postpaid device sales were financed consistent with the prior two quarters and 46% a year ago. Furthermore 55% of postpaid sales selected leasing plans which was up slightly from last quarter.
FCC Removes Cuba from Exclusion List; Way Paved for U.S. Telcos to Offer Services in the Island
US telecom network providers can provide voice and broadband service to Cuba without government permission following a Federal Communications Commission announcement that it has removed the island nation from its “Exclusion List.” The Exclusion List identifies countries and facilities that are not covered by grant of a global facilities-based Section 214 application and require a separate international Section 214 application filed under section 63.18(e)(3) of the Commission’s rules
“Removing Cuba from the Exclusion List benefits the public interest as it will likely alleviate administrative and cost burdens on both” telecom companies and the FCC and fuel more competition among telecom carriers interested in the market, the agency said.
The FCC order states (see references below): “We adopt our proposal to remove Cuba from the Commission’s Exclusion List. We agree with the commenters that removing Cuba from the Exclusion List will make it easier for U.S. facilitiesbased carriers to initiate service to Cuba, promote open communications, and help foster bilateral communications between the United States and Cuba.”
The move has been anticipated following the Obama administration’s decision in late 2014 to reopen diplomatic relations with the island nation. At the time of the dramatic announcement, the U.S. government said telecommunications companies will be among the first industries to to set up equipment and other infrastructure projects needed to begin their services.
IDT Telecom, Netflix, Sprint and Verizon began offering services early last year. Cuba’s state-owned and operated telecom ETECSA struck an agreement with IDT to provide direct international long-distance voice calls between the two countries. Verizon and Sprint began offering international mobile services in the country, while Netflix launched its streaming video services in Cuba.
In September, 2015, the U.S Commerce and Treasury departments followed through by removing a series of restrictions on Americans traveling to and doing business with Cuba. The changes, ranging from investment to banking to joint ventures, enabled American businesses to establish a “physical presence” in Cuba and hire Cubans to work in their offices.
The U.S. economic embargo on Cuba remains in effect since only an act of Congress can lift it and then only if numerous conditions are satisfied.
Reference:
FCC Order Removing Cuba from the Exclusion List
http://transition.fcc.gov/Daily_Releases/Daily_Business/2016/db0115/DA-16-55A1.pdf
BT- DT Partnership based on promise of All-IP, New IP & Cloud Services
The changeover from the legacy PSTN to All-IP networks may be at the heart of Deutsche Telekom’s (DT’s) decision to own 12% of the entity formed by BT’s merger with mobile operator EE rather than accept additional cash. A DT executive said the transition would help pave the way for the introduction of new IP-based technologies.
It might not be immediately obvious why DT would prefer 12% of BT to additional cash. Outside the UK, there is little overlap between the two operators’ footprints. While BT is expanding into the TV, mobile and ultra-fast broadband markets in the UK, DT is heavily focused on building a “pan-European” network in central and eastern Europe.
According to Axel Clauberg, Deutsche Telekom’s vice president of aggregation, transport, IP and fixed access, all-IP investments are also laying the foundations for the rollout of New IP technologies like SDN and NFV.
All-IP and New IP could provide a financial rationale for cross-border takeover activity, according to financial analysts. The scenario is that an operator buys a network in a neighboring country, dispenses with that player’s service platforms (along with some facilities and employees needed to support them) and bolsters its sales and margins accordingly. This could justify a takeover of BT. (See All-IP DT Could Drive Euro M&A, Say Analysts.)
Besides their all-IP ambitions, though, BT and Deutsche Telekom share an interest in expanding their enterprise-sector businesses through the rollout of cloud services, as do many large telcos (e.g. Verizon and AT&T in the U.S.). It remains to be seen if that effort will be at all sucessful.
For more info:
CenturyLink CFO: Sell Data Centers; Still Offer Colocation Capabilities & Managed Services
Century Link’s Data Center & Colo Plans:
In yet another sign that there’ll be fewer cloud providers with their own mega-data centers, Century Link has proposed to divest more than 18 data centers it acquired in 2011 when it purchased Qwest and then Savvis. With the Savvis aquisition, Century Link also picked up managed services and cloud services. CenturyLink became a colocation provider through the acquisitions. That move to divest its data centers won’t necessarily disrupt the company’s colocation business, according to Chief Financial Officer Stewart Ewing.
In a recent speech to investors during this week’s Citi 2016 Global Internet, Media & Telecommunications Conference, Ewing described the company’s evolving managed services business, saying that data center ownership is not necessary for monetization.
“When we bought Savvis, we indicated that we really would not invest in the data-center business such that we would be able to grow revenues at the same rates that the colocation companies would get … because we just simply didn’t want to make the investment there,” Ewing said. “And we bought Savvis more so for the managed services and cloud.”
After operating the facilities for a few years, CenturyLink has decided that “we don’t really have to own the data centers so we’re going to run through a process to see what level of interest is out there and our ability to monetize that asset, and if we can’t we’ll keep it,” he said.
“But we think that if we can monetize it, we can still sell colocation services from a wholesale perspective with whomever we sell the data centers to, or potentially other colocation providers, as well as … continue to be a customer of that business from the standpoint of managed services cages for customers being in those data centers, as well as the cloud pods that are in some of those data centers,” Ewing said.
CenturyLink wants to keep the managed services and cloud services pieces because, when coupled with its network and IT services, it gives the company a differentiator between it and others that aren’t able to “put the whole package together for customers,” he said.
“So as more midsize and enterprise customers, and smaller customers start moving their infrastructure from their data center and closets to the cloud, we think that we can facilitate that process for customers, and it will give us, again, a differentiator,” Ewing said.
Other telcos are making major decisions regarding their data-center assets. This week, Reuters reported that Verizon Communications has started a process to sell its data-center assets as it focuses on its core business. It reportedly hopes to sell the assets for more than $2.5 billion. In October, Windstream announced the sale of its hosted unit to TierPoint for $575 million.
Kelly Morgan, research director at 451 Research, said there’s been no apparent downside for telcos selling their data-center assets. “I think that so far there haven’t been a lot of drawbacks,” she told Channel Partners. “It all depends on the pricing,” she added.
Colocation Market:
The market leader is Equinix, with close to 8.5 percent of global market revenue. Digital Realty is the the second-largest supplier in terms of revenue (5.6 percent) but the largest in terms of operational square feet, with or 9.6 percent of global capacity.
The market leader is Equinix, with close to 8.5 percent of global market revenue. Digital Realty is the the second-largest supplier in terms of revenue (5.6 percent) but the largest in terms of operational square feet, with or 9.6 percent of global capacity.
“This remains an extremely fragmented industry,” said Kelly Morgan, research director, North American Datacenters. “The majority of colocation facilities are provided by local operators with only one to three facilities each. However, it is becoming harder for them to compete with the more geographically diverse providers that are now entering many local markets. We will see continued consolidation in this sector.”
Consolidation in the data center market has been ongoing. The biggest recent deal was the merger between Interxion and TelecityGroup in Europe. A recent example in the U.S. was the Fortune Data Centers and Dallas Infomart merger last October.
Other consolidation is occurring in the form of telecoms and cable companies buying service providers. Zayo acquired Latisys, and Canada’s Shaw Communications acquired ViaWest. Large communications companies have been acquiring into the data center and cloud market for years. One big past example was Verizon acquiring Terremark.
The market seems split between those focusing on core markets and those focusing on emerging markets. Equinix and Coresite focus specifically on their core markets, while other players like 365 Data Centers and EdgeConneX focus on underserved metros.
“This remains an extremely fragmented industry,” said Kelly Morgan, research director, North American Data centers. “The majority of colocation facilities are provided by local operators with only one to three facilities each. However, it is becoming harder for them to compete with the more geographically diverse providers that are now entering many local markets. We will see continued consolidation in this sector.”
Consolidation in the data center market has been ongoing. The biggest recent deal was the merger between Interxion and TelecityGroup in Europe. A recent example in the U.S. was the Fortune Data Centers and Dallas Infomart merger last October.
Other consolidation is occurring in the form of telecoms and cable companies buying service providers. Zayo acquired Latisys, and Canada’s Shaw Communications acquired ViaWest. Large communications companies have been acquiring into the data center and cloud market for years. One big past example was Verizon acquiring Terremark.
The market seems split between those focusing on core markets and those focusing on emerging markets. Equinix and Coresite focus specifically on their core markets, while other players like 365 Data Centers and EdgeConneX focus on underserved metros. Other colocation providers include Telx, and SV Colo.
451 Research estimates that less than half of the world’s current. total operational space for colocation (space supporting IT equipment) is in North America: about 43 percent. EMEA and Asia-Pacific compose a large portion of the other half, each accounting for one quarter of the market. However, this is the first quarter that APAC has edged out EMEA as the second-largest market. Latin America is around 4.5 percent of the market.
References: