Dell’Oro: Global RAN Market to Drop 2% between 2021 and 2029

According to a new report from Dell’Oro Group, the overall RAN market is now facing a second consecutive year of steep declines, which follows 40 to 50% revenue growth between 2017 and 2021.  While the pace of decline is expected to moderate after 2024, downward pressure is likely to persist until 6G becomes a reality. In addition to the typical market fluctuations that have shaped the RAN landscape over the past 30-plus years, the overpromising of 5G and its inability to significantly alter the flat revenue trend among operators are fueling increased skepticism regarding the need for substantial investments in new technologies (like 5G Advanced, 5G RedCap or O-RAN).

“Some skepticism is warranted. After all, operators invested over $2 trillion in wireless capex between 2010 and 2023 to build out 4G and 5G, yet revenues remain flat,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President of RAN and Telecom Capex research at Dell’Oro Group. “Looking ahead, operators will need to optimize their spectrum roadmaps to address various data traffic scenarios. Our base case assumes that mobile data traffic growth will continue to slow, enabling operators to improve their capital intensity ratios, which will in turn put further downward pressure on the RAN market. However, additional capacity will eventually be required, and at that point, leveraging larger spectrum bands and the existing macro grid will likely offer the most cost-effective solution,” Pongratz added.

Additional highlights from the new 6G Advanced Research Report:

  • Total RAN revenues are projected to trend downward until 2029
  • 6G RAN revenues to approach $30 B by 2033
  • Sub-7 GHz and CM-wave macros are expected to dominate the 6G mix by 2033

About the Report

Dell’Oro Group’s 6G Advanced Research Report offers a complete overview of the RAN market by region and by technology, with tables covering manufacturers’ revenue for 5G NR and 6G by frequency, including Sub-7 GHz, cmWave, and mmWave. The report also covers Cloud RAN, small cells, and Massive MIMO. To purchase this report, please contact by email at [email protected].

References:

6G RAN to Approach $30 B by 2033, According to Dell’Oro Group

https://www.ericsson.com/en/blog/2023/6/cm-wave-spectrum-6g-potent-enabler

Dell’Oro: RAN market still declining with Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung top vendors

Dell’Oro & Omdia: Global RAN market declined in 2023 and again in 2024

Highlights of Dell’Oro’s 5-year RAN forecast

Dell’Oro: RAN market declines at very fast pace while Mobile Core Network returns to growth in Q2-2023

Dell’Oro: 2023 global telecom equipment revenues declined 5% YoY; Huawei increases its #1 position

 

Nokia, Windstream Wholesale and Colt complete world’s first ultra-fast 800GbE optical and IP service trial

Nokia, Windstream, and Colt Technology Services have completed an 800 Gigabit Ethernet (800 GbE) trial spanning 8,500km between London and Chicago over a subsea and terrestrial route. The trial showcased innovative power-saving networking technologies from the three global tech businesses to test the boundaries of next-generation wavelength, capacity, speed and latency between two of the world’s largest financial trading hubs.

Colt’s five transatlantic subsea cables and part of its extensive terrestrial fiber optic network were connected with Windstream Wholesale’s domestic U.S. low latency, optical fiber Intelligent Converged Optical Network (ICON) monitoring speed and performance.  Colt and Windstream Wholesale have partnered to demonstrate the world’s first transoceanic 800 gigabit ethernet (GbE) end-to-end service transport from router to router over 1Tbps optical transport. The trial was successfully delivered using Nokia’s sixth-generation Photonic Service Engine (PSE-6s) coherent optics and 7750 Service Router (SR) high-performance routing platforms boosting internet service speeds and supporting ultra-high wavelength capacity, while maintaining power efficiency.

The companies say that 800G marks a breakthrough in service bandwidth, doubling capacity to support advanced network applications like AI data center networking, content delivery networks, and financial data hub connections.

Table 1 – Summary of IEEE 802.3df™-2024 Specifications
Ethernet Rate AUI BP Cu Cable MMF 50m MMF 100m SMF 500m SMF 2km
400 Gb/s 4 pairs
800 Gb/s 8 lanes 8 lanes 8 pairs 8 pairs 8 pairs 8 pairs 8 pairs

 

Quotes:

Buddy Bayer, Chief Operating Officer of Colt Technology Services, said: “Pushing the boundaries of technology innovation is a fundamental part of our customer commitment: it means we stay a step ahead of the market, so we’re ready when our customers ask, “What’s next for us?” This trial has seen us build a powerful industry collaboration to explore the ‘what’s next?’. It’s tested the limits of infrastructure performance and capability across thousands of miles of land and sea with incredible networking technologies, and it’s demonstrated the power and potential of what can be achieved, without skipping a beat.”

Joe Scattareggia, President of Windstream Wholesalesaid: “Our latest innovation represents a true game-changer for global connectivity. By partnering with two extraordinary leaders in the industry, we’re enabling unprecedented bandwidth capabilities that are essential for driving AI-powered applications worldwide for our customers. As an optical technology leader, Windstream Wholesale and our partners are establishing 800GbE as the next evolutionary advancement increase for wave services. This collaboration has pushed the boundaries of what’s possible, creating a network solution like no other. Together, we’re not just meeting the demands of the future—we’re shaping it.”

Federico Guillén, President of Network Infrastructure at Nokia, said: “Such an ambitious project — to link two of the world’s most important financial hubs — sets the bar very high for network capacity, speed, security and reliability. This demonstration would simply not have been possible without the commitment of Nokia and our partners to the highest standards of innovation in networking technology. Together, we are redefining the art of the possible for IP and optical networks enabling cross-continental subsea and terrestrial communications.”

Following the successful completion of the trial, the organizations are currently exploring options to bring 800GbE connectivity services to market for global business customers.

Resources and additional information:
Webpage: Nokia PSE-6s
Webpage: Nokia Optical Networks

About Nokia:
As a B2B technology innovation leader, we are pioneering networks that sense, think and act by leveraging our work across mobile, fixed and cloud networks. In addition, we create value with intellectual property and long-term research, led by the award-winning Nokia Bell Labs.

With truly open architectures that seamlessly integrate into any ecosystem, our high-performance networks create new opportunities for monetization and scale. Service providers, enterprises and partners worldwide trust Nokia to deliver secure, reliable and sustainable networks today – and work with us to create the digital services and applications of the future.

About Colt Technology Services:

Colt Technology Services (Colt) is a global digital infrastructure company which creates extraordinary connections to help businesses succeed. Powered by amazing people and like-minded partners, Colt is driven by its purpose: to put the power of the digital universe in the hands of its customers, wherever, whenever and however they choose.
Since 1992, Colt has set itself apart through its deep commitment to its customers, growing from its heritage in the City of London to a global business spanning 40+ countries, with over 6,000 employees and more than 80 offices around the world. Colt’s customers benefit from expansive digital infrastructure connecting 32,000 buildings across 230 cities, more than 50 Metropolitan Area Networks and 250+ Points of Presence across Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Africa and North America’s largest business hubs.

Privately owned, Colt is one of the most financially sound companies in the sector. Obsessed with delivering industry-leading customer experience, Colt is guided by its dedication to customer innovation, by its values and its responsibility to its customers, partners, people and the planet.

For more information, please visit www.colt.net

About Windstream Wholesale:

Windstream Wholesale is an innovative optical technology leader that delivers fast, flexible, and customized wavelength and dark fiber solutions to carriers, content providers, and hyperscalers in the U.S. and Canada. Windstream Wholesale is one of three brands managed by Windstream. The company’s quality-first approach connects customers to new opportunities and possibilities by delivering a full suite of advanced communications services. Windstream also offers fiber-based broadband to residential and small business customers in 18 states as well as managed cloud communications and security services to mid-to-large enterprises and government entities across the U.S. Windstream is a privately held company headquartered in Little Rock, Ark. Additional information about Windstream Wholesale is available at windstreamwholesale.com. Follow us on X (Twitter) @Windstream and LinkedIn at @Windstream.

To view the Windstream Wholesale network map, visit https://www.windstreamwholesale.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Windstream-Wholesale-National-Network.pdf

References:

https://www.nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2024/10/14/nokia-windstream-wholesale-and-colt-technology-services-join-forces-to-complete-worlds-first-ultra-fast-800gbe-optical-and-ip-service-trial-connecting-london-and-chicago/

https://standards.ieee.org/beyond-standards/ethernets-next-bar/

AI adoption to accelerate growth in the $215 billion Data Center market

Ethernet Alliance multi-vendor interoperability demo (10GbE to 800GbE) at OFC 2023

Cisco 800G line card for Cisco 8000 Series Routers powered by Silicon One ASIC

Reliance Jio vs Starlink: administrative process or auction for satellite broadband services in India?

Reliance Jio has argued that India’s telecom regulator incorrectly concluded that home satellite broadband spectrum should be allocated and not auctioned, according to a letter seen by Reuters. That intensifies Jio’s face-off with Elon Musk’s Starlink.

Starlink is expected to launch broadband satellite service in India soon after receiving a Global Mobile Personal Communication by Satellite (GMPCS) license. The Telecom Ministry has granted in-principle approval, and the Home Ministry is expected to finalize the vetting process. Starlink’s initial strategy was to provide satellite broadband directly to consumers, but the company may now only offer business services in India

Starlink and global peers like Amazon’s Project Kuiper back an administrative allocation, while Ambani – Asia’s wealthiest man who runs India’s Reliance Jio – is arguing for an auction process.
The current dispute is over an interpretation of Indian law that some in the industry say paved the way for the allocation of spectrum last year as Musk wanted.
But Reliance is arguing no provisions are in place for satellite broadband services for individual or home users, industry sources said on Sunday.

India’s telecom regulator, TRAI, is holding a public consultation, but Reliance in a private Oct. 10 letter seen by Reuters asked for the process to be started afresh as the watchdog has “pre-emptively interpreted” that allocation is the way forward. “TRAI seems to have concluded, without any basis, that spectrum assignment should be administrative,” Reliance’s senior regulatory affairs official Kapoor Singh Guliani wrote in the letter to India’s telecoms minister Jyotiraditya Scindia.

TRAI has in its consultation paper indicated Indian laws mandate allocation of spectrum for such services without conducting any studies, Reliance added in its letter.
“We have requested (the) TRAI to amend the consultation paper” to ensure a level playing field, Reliance Jio said in a statement to Reuters on Sunday, adding that “it is imperative upon TRAI to also consult on the methodology of assignment” of spectrum.
A senior TRAI official said on Sunday that due process is being followed and Reliance is welcome to share feedback during the consultation period.  The recommendations of the watchdog will form the basis for the government’s decision on the matter. Elon Musk wants to launch Starlink in India, though a final decision on spectrum allocation remains a sticking point. Starlink argues that the administrative allotment of licenses is in line with a global trend. Reliance says an auction is needed for a level playing field as foreign players could offer voice and data services and compete with traditional players, Reuters has reported.

References:

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/ambanis-reliance-lobbies-india-minister-satellite-spectrum-new-face-off-with-2024-10-13/

India’s TRAI releases Recommendations on use of Tera Hertz Spectrum for 6G

FCC: More competition for Starlink; freeing up spectrum for satellite broadband service

SpaceX launches first set of Starlink satellites with direct-to-cell capabilities

Communications Minister: India to be major telecom technology exporter in 3 years with its 4G/5G technology stack

India’s Trai: Coexistence essential for efficient use of mmWave band spectrum

OneWeb, Jio Space Tech and Starlink have applied for licenses to launch satellite-based broadband internet in India

Starlink to explore collaboration with Indian telcos for broadband internet services

SNS Telecom & IT: $6 Billion Private LTE/5G Market Shines Through Wireless Industry’s Gloom

SNS Telecom & IT’s latest research report estimates that the private LTE and 5G network market revenues will be $6 Billion by the end of 2027.  It’s one of the few bright spots in the otherwise gloomy wireless telecommunications industry, which is marked by a slowdown in public mobile network infrastructure spending and service providers struggling to monetize their existing 5G investments, particularly in the consumer segment.

Historically a niche segment of the wider wireless telecommunications industry, private 4G-LTE and 5G networks – also referred to as NPNs (Non-Public Networks) in 3GPP terminology – have rapidly gained popularity in recent years due to privacy, security, reliability and performance advantages over public mobile networks and competing wireless technologies as well as their potential to replace hardwired connections with non-obstructive wireless links.

Their expanding influence is evident from the recent use of rapidly deployable private cellular network-in-a-box systems for professional TV broadcasting, enhanced fan engagement and gameplay operations at major sports events, including Paris 2024 Olympics, 2024 UEFA European Football Championship, North West 200 Motorcycle Race, 2024 World Rowing Cup III, New York Sail Grand Prix, 2024 PGA Championship, 2024 UFL Championship Game and 2024 NFL International Games, as well as the Republican and Democratic national conventions in the run up to the 2024 United States presidential election.

Other examples of high-impact private LTE/5G engagements include but are not limited to multi-site, multi-national private cellular deployments at the industrial facilities of Airbus, BMW, Chevron, John Deere, LG Electronics, Midea, Tesla, Toyota, Volkswagen, Walmart and several other household brand names; Aramco’s 450 MHz 3GPP network project in Saudi Arabia and ADNOCS’ 11,000-square kilometer private 5G network for connecting thousands of remote wells and pipelines in the UAE; defense sector 5G programs for the adoption of tactical cellular systems and permanent private 5G networks at military bases in the United States, Germany, Spain, Norway, Japan and South Korea; service territory-wide private wireless projects of 450connect, Ameren, CPFL Energia, ESB Networks, Evergy, Neoenergia, PGE (Polish Energy Group), SDG&E (San Diego Gas & Electric), Tampa Electric, Xcel Energy and other utility companies; and the recent implementation of a private 5G network at Belgium’s Nobelwind offshore wind farm as part of a broader European effort to secure critical infrastructure in the North Sea.

There has also been a surge in the adoption of private wireless small cells as a cost-effective alternative to DAS (Distributed Antenna Systems) for delivering neutral host public cellular coverage in carpeted enterprise spaces, public venues, hospitals, hotels, higher education campuses and schools. This trend is particularly prevalent in the United States due to the open accessibility of the license-exempt GAA (General Authorized Access) tier of 3.5 GHz CBRS spectrum. Some examples of private network deployments supporting neutral host connectivity to one or more national mobile operators include Meta’s corporate offices, City of Hope Hospital, SHC (Stanford Health Care), Sound Hotel, Gale South Beach Hotel, Nobu Hotel, ASU (Arizona State University), Cal Poly (California Polytechnic State University), University of Virginia, Duke University and Parkside Elementary School.

SNS Telecom & IT estimates that global spending on private LTE and 5G network infrastructure for vertical industries will grow at a CAGR of approximately 20% between 2024 and 2027, eventually accounting for more than $6 Billion by the end of 2027. Close to 60% of these investments – an estimated $3.5 Billion – will be directed towards the buildout of standalone private 5G networks, which will become the predominant wireless communications medium to support the ongoing Industry 4.0 revolution for the digitization and automation of manufacturing and process industries. This unprecedented level of growth is likely to transform private LTE and 5G networks into an almost parallel equipment ecosystem to public mobile operator infrastructure in terms of market size by the late 2020s. By 2030, private networks could account for as much as a fifth of all mobile network infrastructure spending.

The “Private LTE & 5G Network Ecosystem: 2024 – 2030 – Opportunities, Challenges, Strategies, Industry Verticals & Forecasts” report presents an in-depth assessment of the private LTE and 5G network ecosystem, including the value chain, market drivers, barriers to uptake, enabling technologies, operational and business models, vertical industries, application scenarios, key trends, future roadmap, standardization, spectrum availability and allocation, regulatory landscape, case studies, ecosystem player profiles and strategies. The report also presents global and regional market size forecasts from 2024 to 2030. The forecasts cover three infrastructure submarkets, two technology generations, four spectrum licensing models, 16 vertical industries and five regional markets.

The report comes with an associated Excel datasheet suite covering quantitative data from all numeric forecasts presented in the report, as well as a database of over 7,300 global private LTE/5G engagements – as of Q4’2024.

The report will be of value to current and future potential investors into the private LTE and 5G market, as well as LTE/5G equipment suppliers, system integrators, private network specialists, mobile operators and other ecosystem players who wish to broaden their knowledge of the ecosystem.

For further information concerning the SNS Telecom & IT publication “Private LTE & 5G Network Ecosystem: 2024 – 2030 – Opportunities, Challenges, Strategies, Industry Verticals & Forecasts” please visit: https://www.snstelecom.com/private-lte

About SNS Telecom & IT:

SNS Telecom & IT is a global market intelligence and consulting firm with a primary focus on the telecommunications and information technology industries. Developed by in-house subject matter experts, our market intelligence and research reports provide unique insights on both established and emerging technologies. Our areas of coverage include but are not limited to 6G, 5G, LTE, Open RAN, vRAN (Virtualized RAN), small cells, mobile core, xHaul (Fronthaul, Midhaul & Backhaul) transport, network automation, mobile operator services, FWA (Fixed Wireless Access), neutral host networks, private 4G/5G cellular networks, public safety broadband, critical communications, MCX (Mission-Critical PTT, Video & Data), IIoT (Industrial IoT), V2X (Vehicle-to-Everything) communications and vertical applications.

References:

https://www.snstelecom.com/private-lte

SNS Telecom & IT: Private 5G Network market annual spending will be $3.5 Billion by 2027

SNS Telecom & IT: Private LTE & 5G Network Infrastructure at $6.4 Billion by end of 2026

Dell’Oro: Private RAN revenue declines slightly, but still doing relatively better than public RAN and WLAN markets

Wipro and Cisco Launch Managed Private 5G Network-as-a-Service Solution

 

Markets and Markets: Global AI in Networks market worth $10.9 billion in 2024; projected to reach $46.8 billion by 2029

According to research firm Markets and Markets, the global AI in Networks market is expected to be valued at USD 10.9 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 46.8 billion by 2029 and grow at a CAGR of 33.8% from 2024 to 2029.  AI in networks market is experiencing high growth driven by increasing adoption of 5G technology, edge computing, IoT connected devices, and expansion of smart cities. Increasing deployment of 5G networks has led to the vast amount of network data, generated by high bandwidth application such as video streaming and online gaming, driving network operators to integrate AI driven solutions to manage network data and allocate resources to reduce network congestion. Network operators are also integrating AI driven solutions to automate network operations and predictive maintenance, to reduce human dependency and errors, leading to efficient network management.

Network operators invest heavily in developing AI-driven solutions to manage and optimize network traffic. AI in networks allows operators to efficiently perform network management tasks such as traffic routing, resource allocation, and network security. As the 5G technology advances, the demand for cybersecurity solutions will also rise, driving the AI in networks market.

Constraint: Data privacy and security concerns in AI in networks
Integration of artificial intelligence technology in the networking leads to various risks affiliated with collecting, storing, and transmitting network traffic data. AI driven network collect users and network operations data information, creating a high risk environment of privacy breaches, due to the rising cyberthreats. These cyberattacks may lead to unauthorized access to network and user data, disrupting network operations. Additionally, data generated by connected and Iot devices such as smartphones, smart home systems, surveillance system is collected by network, leads to concerns regarding unauthorized surveillance and cyberattacks.

Opportunity: Increasing prevalence of smart city initiatives
Rapid urbanization has led to the exapsnion of smart cities globally. Countries around the world are investing heavily towards smart infrastructure by integrating advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI). For instance, smart city ecosystem consist of various sensors and connected and IoT devices, and to ensure efficient transmission and processing of data generated by these sensor and devices. AI driven network solutions play a vital role in collecting and processing of data, identifying anomalies and equipment failure based on present and historical data, helping network operator to schedule maintenance in advance and reduce downtime.

Challenge: Rapid change in the technology landscape
As the technology landscape evolves rapidly, AI presents a major challenge in the network market. As new technologies appear and current technology evolves, companies in the ecosystem must continuously invest in the research and development of changing market demand and advancements. Additionally, intense competition in the market and pressure to offer innovative solutions further restrict companies from maintaining market leadership. Companies’ negligence in identifying the technological shift can result in a decline in market share and revenue.

AI in networks market in North America will hold the highest market share during the forecast period.

The AI in networks market for North America is expected to hold the highest market share during the forecast period. This growth is attributed to the presence of leading AI and network technology companies in the region. These companies are investing heavily towards the advancement of  technologies such as AI, 5G, edge computing, due to the high internet penetration rate in the region. The demand for high bandwidth network application such as video streaming and online gaming also on the rise, driving the investments and innovations towards AI driven solutions in network management.

 

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References:

https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/ai-in-networks-market-131514910.html

AI adoption to accelerate growth in the $215 billion Data Center market

Allied Market Research: Global AI in telecom market forecast to reach $38.8 by 2031 with CAGR of 41.4% (from 2022 to 2031)

Nvidia enters Data Center Ethernet market with its Spectrum-X networking platform

Will AI clusters be interconnected via Infiniband or Ethernet: NVIDIA doesn’t care, but Broadcom sure does!

Generative AI in telecom; ChatGPT as a manager? ChatGPT vs Google Search

Generative AI could put telecom jobs in jeopardy; compelling AI in telecom use cases

The case for and against AI in telecommunications; record quarter for AI venture funding and M&A deals

2021 U.S. Broadband Infrastructure law has been a colossal failure – who’s to blame?

The 2021 U.S.  Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), AKA the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law was signed into law November 15, 2021. It included $42.5 billion for states to expand broadband to “unserved,” mostly rural, communities.  The White House said it would “Ensure every American has access to high-speed internet…. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal will deliver $65 billion to help ensure that every American has access to reliable high-speed internet through a historic investment in broadband infrastructure deployment. The legislation will also help lower prices for internet service and help close the digital divide, so that more Americans can afford internet access.”

In his speech at the Democratic National Convention, President Joe Biden trumpeted his broadband program in historic terms, calling it a national build-out “not unlike what Roosevelt did with electricity.” Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris helped create and promote the program as vice president, and on the campaign trail it could offer a way to show how the White House has delivered for rural Americans.

Yet almost three years later, ground hasn’t been broken on a single project! The Biden-Harris Administration recently said construction won’t start until next year at the earliest, meaning many projects won’t be up and running until the end of the decade.  Who’s to blame?

  • NTIA was expected to play a major role in the endeavor to connect every American to high-speed, affordable broadband. They intended to work closely with all stakeholders, including State and local governments, Tribal governments, industry, and community leaders, as well as across the Federal government to ensure that this bold investment is targeted to those who need it most. But they haven’t helped a bit!
  • States must submit plans to the U.S. Commerce Department about how they’ll use the funds and their bidding process for providers. The Commerce Dept. has piled on mandates that are nowhere in the law and has rejected state plans that don’t advance progressive goals. Commerce hoped to spread the cash to small rural cooperatives, but the main beneficiaries will be large providers that can better manage the regulatory burden. Bigger businesses always win from bigger government.
  • Commerce is all but refusing to fund anything other than fiber broadband, though satellite services like SpaceX’s Starlink and wireless carriers 5G FWA can expand coverage at lower cost. Extending 5G to rural communities costs a couple thousand dollars per connection. Building out fiber runs into the tens of thousands. Fiber networks will require more permits, which delay construction. But fiber will require more union labor to build. Commerce wants grant recipients to pay union-scale wages and not oppose union organizing.
  • The Administration has also stipulated hiring preferences for “underrepresented” groups, including “aging individuals,” prisoners, racial, religious and ethnic minorities, “Indigenous and Native American persons,” “LGBTQI+ persons,” and “persons otherwise adversely affected by persistent poverty or inequality.”
  • In Virginia, that leaves thousands of mostly rural residents stuck in a long-outdated version of the internet. According to the official state count, there are more than 100,000 homes and offices across Virginia with connection speeds slow enough to qualify for the $1.48 billion in funding.  “People need to see it,” said Lynlee Thorne, a political director for Democratic campaign group Rural Ground Ggame, which helps lead campaigns for Virginia state seats. “It’s got to be a lot more concrete. We’re past the point of being able to earn people’s votes based on the status quo or just hope.”
  • Last week, Cox Communications last week sued Rhode Island over the state’s plan to “build taxpayer-subsidized and duplicative high-speed broadband internet in affluent areas of Rhode Island like the Breakers Mansion in Newport and affluent areas of Westerly,” where Taylor Swift owns a $17 million vacation home. Cox says there are better ways to spend taxpayer dollars. According to the Federal Communications Commission, 99.97% of U.S. households already have access to high-speed internet.

 

References:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/11/06/fact-sheet-the-bipartisan-infrastructure-deal/

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/kamala-harris-joe-biden-broadband-internet-rollout-cox-communications-8acba576

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/04/biden-broadband-program-swing-state-frustrations-00175845

https://broadbandusa.ntia.gov/news/latest-news/ntias-role-implementing-broadband-provisions-2021-infrastructure-investment-and

Dell’Oro: Global telecom CAPEX declined 10% YoY in 1st half of 2024

According to a recent report by Dell’Oro Group, telecom operators are now scaling back their investments in 5G and fixed broadband technologies. Of course, that’s nothing new as telco CAPEX has been declining for quite some time (see References below).  Preliminary Dell’Oro findings show that the more challenging conditions that shaped the second half of 2023 extended into the first half of 2024.

Worldwide telecom capex, the sum of wireless and wireline/other telecom carrier investments, declined 10% year-over-year (YoY) in the first half of 2024, partly due to built-up inventory, weaker demand in China, India, and US, challenging 5G comparisons, excess capacity, and elevated uncertainty.

“The high-level message is clear. The flattish revenue trajectory and the difficulties with monetizing new technologies and opportunities are impacting the risk appetite and willingness to raise the capital intensity levels for extended periods,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President for RAN and Telecom Capex research at Dell’Oro Group. “In addition, the reduced gap between advanced and less advanced regions, when it comes to adopting new technologies, is impacting the investment intensity on the way up and down,” continued Pongratz.

Additional highlights from the September 2024 Telecom Capex report:

  • Global carrier revenues are expected to increase at a 1 percent CAGR over the next 3 years.
  • Worldwide telecom capex is projected to decline at a mid-single-digit rate in 2024 and at a negative 2 percent CAGR by 2026.
  • The mix between wireless and wireline remains largely unchanged, reflecting challenging times still ahead for wireless. Wireless-related capex will decline at a 3 percent CAGR by 2026.
  • Capital intensity ratios are modeled to approach 15 percent by 2026, down from 17 percent in 2023.

In  a previous Dell’Oro report last month, telecom equipment revenues fell by 17% worldwide during the first half of the year. Dell’Oro described that as ‘abysmal results’ and again blamed excess inventory, weaker demand in China, ‘challenging 5G comparisons’, and elevated uncertainty.

About the Report

The Dell’Oro Group Telecom Capex Report provides in-depth coverage of around 50 telecom operators, highlighting carrier revenue, capital expenditure, and capital intensity trends.  The report provides actual and 3-year forecast details by carrier, by region by country (United States, Canada, China, India, Japan, and South Korea), and by technology (wireless/wireline).  To purchase this report, please contact by email at [email protected].

References:

Telecom Capex Down 10 Percent in 1H24, According to Dell’Oro Group

Dell’Oro: Abysmal revenue results continue: Ethernet Campus Switch and Worldwide Telecom Equipment + Telco Convergence Moves to Counter Cable Broadband

Analysts: Telco CAPEX crash looks to continue: mobile core network, RAN, and optical all expected to decline

Analysys Mason’s gloomy CAPEX forecast: “there will not be a cyclical recovery”

China Mobile & China Unicom increase revenues and profits in 2023, but will slash CAPEX in 2024

Dell’Oro: RAN market still declining with Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung top vendors

Highlights of Dell’Oro’s 5-year RAN forecast

Dell’Oro: 2023 global telecom equipment revenues declined 5% YoY; Huawei increases its #1 position

Dell’Oro & Omdia: Global RAN market declined in 2023 and again in 2024

Global 5G Market Snapshot; Dell’Oro and GSA Updates on 5G SA networks and devices

 

FCC approves EchoStar/Dish request to extend timeline for its 5G buildout

On September 20th, the U.S. FCC has granted EchoStar’s request to extend the deadline for portions of its 5G network buildout into 2026 in exchange for several commitments, including a low-cost offering and a pledge to accelerate build-outs in certain markets. 

EchoStar’s request to the FCC was sent to the commission on September 18, 2024.  The licenses subject to the requested waiver include EchoStar’s AWS-4, Lower 700MHz E Block, 600MHz, AWS-3, AWS H Block and AWS-3 licenses. Depending on the spectrum, EchoStar generally is asking to move the milestones to December 2026. EchoStar also wants final construction milestones moved from December 14, 2026, to June 14, 2028.  The request seemed to make clear that its 2025 deadlines were in jeopardy even if the company could resolve its near-term debt obligations (more below).

Benefits of the FCC’s new framework include:

  • Enhancing EchoStar’s Network Build. By the end of this year, EchoStar’s Boost Mobile Network will cover 80% of the U.S. population, an additional 30 million more Americans than EchoStar’s 2023 obligation to cover 70% of the population. EchoStar will also accelerate and expand its final buildout milestones in more than 500 license areas on this same timeline. Because of EchoStar’s wholesale partnerships with AT&T and T-Mobile, consumers in areas where EchoStar has not yet deployed will still be able to sign up for the industry-leading coverage EchoStar’s wireless service – Boost Mobile – offers.
  • Requiring a Low-Cost Offering. EchoStar will make a low-cost wireless plan and 5G device available to consumers nationwide, regardless of whether they live in an area where EchoStar has built out its Boost Mobile Network or relies on roaming partners to provide service.
  • Enabling a More Efficient Build. The targeted extensions adopted by the FCC will provide a construction timeline that more closely aligns EchoStar’s deployment with its 3.45 GHz spectrum licenses, reducing the resources necessary to install infrastructure twice at each cell site/tower. Small wireless carriers and Tribal nations will also be able to lease EchoStar spectrum licenses in extension areas where the company has not yet deployed.

Blair Levin, a policy analyst at New Street Research and a former FCC official, remarked at the speed at which the FCC approved the petition:

“We can’t think of a faster one. And it is a real tribute to the brilliant strategy and execution by the DISH public policy team,” he explained. “The speed at which the FCC acted – albeit likely with significant pre-negotiation – is an indication that the FCC leadership is willing to act quickly and decisively to increase the odds of DISH succeeding in building out a fourth national facilities-based competitor.”  Levin believes a vote is “highly unlikely” if there are three Commissioners willing to push this forward.

“The Bureau has not yet issued the order but as far as we can tell, they simply approved the order. The speed at which the Bureau acted suggests to us that this was pre-negotiated, meaning that the Bureau order is unlikely to make changes,” he added noting that the FCC action could face a lawsuit, but does not expect anyone willing to spend the political capital to pursue one.

EchoStar/Dish hope to be able to offer a nationwide wireless service due to its roaming deals with AT&T and T-Mobile, but will also be able to sign up customers with competitive pricing and plans enabled by its “enhanced presence” in the accelerated buildout markets.  “This pro-consumer outcome is in addition to the public interest commitments EchoStar is making in connection with its extension request,” EchoStar said in their FCC petition.

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EchoStar is the parent company of Dish Network which is building a 5G Open RAN based network. The goal is to establish the company as a fourth national carrier after AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon.

EchoStar pledged to fulfill a range of commitments, including a plan to cover more than 80% of the US population with its open RAN network at the end of 2024. The company, which has MVNO partnerships with AT&T and T-Mobile, said it will also accelerate and expand its final buildout milestones in more than 500 license areas on that same timeline.

EchoStar said it’s also prepared to introduce a nationwide “affordable” 5G plan that will offer at least 30 gigabytes of data per month for no more than $25 per month for both prepaid and postpaid customers.

EchoStar also pledged to deploy 24,000 towers by June 14, 2025 – about 9,000 more than its 15,000 2023 tower obligation, and to offer to load at least 75% of new customers with compatible devices on its MVNO network in the aforementioned accelerated markets.

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On Monday, EchoStar disclosed in an 8-K filing that its negotiations with certain holders of senior debt securities had concluded without reaching an agreement regarding potential transactions, including new secured notes with an extended maturity date. “The Company remains engaged with various other parties regarding possible financing transactions,” EchoStar said in the filing.

“The failure to resolve the lawsuit limits Dish’s capital raising options, but they still have options. We believe the most likely path to raising capital will be notes secured by the AWS-3 licenses,” New Street Research analyst Jonathan Chaplin said in a note about the new filing.

About EchoStar:
EchoStar Corporation (Nasdaq: SATS) is a premier provider of technology, networking services, television entertainment and connectivity, offering consumer, enterprise, operator, and government solutions worldwide under its EchoStar®, Boost Mobile®, Sling TV, DISH TV, Hughes®, HughesNet®, HughesON™ and JUPITER™ brands. In Europe, EchoStar operates under its EchoStar Mobile Limited subsidiary and in Australia, the company operates as EchoStar Global Australia. For more information, visit www.echostar.com and follow EchoStar on X (Twitter) and LinkedIn.

References:

https://www.fcc.gov/ecfs/document/1091867842711/1

https://about.dish.com/2024-09-20-FCC-Grants-EchoStars-5G-Buildout-Framework-for-the-Boost-Mobile-Network

https://www.lightreading.com/regulatory-politics/fcc-greenlights-echostar-s-revised-5g-buildout-plan

https://www.lightreading.com/regulatory-politics/dish-asks-fcc-for-more-time-for-5g-buildout

https://about.dish.com/2023-06-15-The-DISH-5G-Network-is-Now-Available-to-Over-70-Percent-of-the-U-S-Population

https://about.dish.com/2024-02-22-DISH-Expands-VoNR-Coverage-to-Over-200-Million-People

 

 

Dell’Oro: Abysmal revenue results continue: Ethernet Campus Switch and Worldwide Telecom Equipment + Telco Convergence Moves to Counter Cable Broadband

Dell’Oro Group recently reported that:

1.  2Q 2024 worldwide Ethernet Campus Switch revenues contracted year-over-year for the third quarter in a row.  Ethernet campus switch sales hit an all-time high in 2Q 2023 and a year later, vendors are suffering in comparison.

“We expect another year-over-year contraction in sales next quarter, in 3Q 2024,” said Siân Morgan, Research Director at Dell’Oro Group.  “However, the outlook is improving, and the Ethernet Campus Switch market is expected to return to growth in 4Q 2024.”

“While the economy in China remains soft, Huawei grew year-over-year campus switch revenues across the rest of Asia Pacific and CALA.  Over half of Huawei’s campus switch sales were generated outside China,” added Morgan.

Additional highlights from the 2Q 2024 Ethernet Switch–Campus Report:

  • The contraction in Ethernet campus switch sales was broad-based across both modular and fixed form factors, all verticals and regions.
  • Sales to North America fell the most of any macro-economic region.
  • Cisco grew campus switch revenues on a quarter-over-quarter basis, for the first time in a year.

The Dell’Oro Group’s Ethernet Switch–Campus Quarterly Report offers a detailed view of Ethernet switches built and optimized for deployment outside the data center, to connect users and things to the Local Area Networks. The report contains in-depth market and vendor-level information on manufacturers’ revenue, ports shipped, and average selling prices for both Modular and Fixed, and Fixed Managed and Unmanaged Ethernet Switches (100 Mbps, 1/2.5/5/10/25/40/50/100/400 Gbps), Power-over-Ethernet, plus regional breakouts as well as split by customer size (Enterprise vs. SMB) and vertical segments. To purchase these reports, please contact us by email at [email protected].

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2.  Preliminary findings indicate that worldwide telecom equipment revenues across the six telecom programs tracked at Dell’Oro Group—Broadband Access, Microwave & Optical Transport, Mobile Core Network (MCN), Radio Access Network (RAN), and SP Router & Switch—declined 16% year-over-year (Y/Y) in 2Q24, recording a fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit contractions. Helping to explain the abysmal results are excess inventory, weaker demand in China, challenging 5G comparisons, and elevated uncertainty.

Regional output deceleration was broad-based in the second quarter of 2024, reflecting slower revenue growth on a Y/Y basis in all regions, including North America, EMEA, Asia Pacific, and CALA (Caribbean and Latin America). Varied momentum in activity in the first half was particularly significant in China – the total telecom equipment market in China stumbled in the second quarter, declining 17% Y/Y.

The downward pressure was not confined to a specific technology, and initial readings show that all six telecom programs declined in the second quarter. In addition to the wireless programs (RAN and MCN), which are still impacted by slower 5G deployments, spending on Service Provider Routers fell by a third in 2Q24.

Supplier rankings were mostly unchanged. The top 7 suppliers in 1H24 accounted for 80% of the worldwide telecom equipment market and included Huawei, Nokia, Ericsson, ZTE, Cisco, Ciena, and Samsung. Huawei and ZTE combined gained nearly 3 percentage points of share between 2023 and 1H24.

Supplier positions differ slightly when we exclude the Chinese market. Despite the ongoing efforts by the U.S. government to curb Huawei’s rise, Huawei is still well positioned in the broader telecom equipment market, excluding China, which is up roughly two percentage points relative to 2019 levels.

  • Even with the second half of 2024 expected to account for 54% of full-year revenues, market conditions are expected to remain challenging in 2024.
  • The Dell’Oro analyst team collectively forecasts global telecom equipment revenues to contract 8 to 10% in 2024, even worse than the 4% decline in 2023.

3.  U.S. Telcos Betting on Convergence and Scale To End Cable’s Broadband Reign

U.S. telcos have been very active the past two weeks with deals and partnerships.

  • Verizon announced a $20B deal to acquire Frontier Communications and push the combined entity to a fiber footprint of 25 million homes and a fixed wireless footprint of approximately 60 million homes.
  • AT&T announced partnerships with four open access network providers to help it expand the reach of its fiber services outside its existing wireline footprint. AT&T will serve as an ISP in these markets, delivering both residential and enterprise services via these partnerships. AT&T is on track to pass a minimum of 30 million homes with fiber by 2025 in its own footprint, as well as an additional 1.5 million homes through its Gigapower joint venture with BlackRock.
  • AT&T has also quietly increased the availability of its Internet Air FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) services to over 130 markets, as It potentially positions the service to move beyond just a means of capturing existing DSL subscribers.

These deals follow on the heels of T-Mobile’s proposed acquisition of Lumos Networks, which is slated to pass 3.5 million homes with fiber by the end of 2028. Under the terms of the deal, Lumos will transition to a wholesale model with T-Mobile as the anchor ISP. This is exactly the type of arrangement T-Mobile has established with some of its other infrastructure partners. However, with its partial ownership of Lumos, T-Mobile can presumably generate better returns and healthier margins from its broadband service offerings. The joint venture also is consistent with T-Mobile’s goal of expanding its market presence and footprint without expending a significant amount of capital. In fact, if you take the $1.4B that T-Mobile will ultimately invest in Lumos as it increases its homes passed from 320K to 3.5M by the end of 2028, T-Mobile’s cost per home passed ends up being somewhat less than $500.

That $500 per home passed figure could be even lower should Lumos continue to secure additional American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) Capital Project Fund grants as well as a portion of the $3.6 B in aggregate BEAD (Broadband Equity, Access, and Development) funding across North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia.

The primary reason for T-Mobile’s push into both direct fiber network ownership and partnerships with open access fiber providers is that the operator has over 1 million customers on a waiting list for its fixed wireless service. These customers can’t be served because they are in markets where T-Mobile does not have enough 5G capacity to serve them. As T-Mobile expands the reach of its fiber offering, it can not only provide service to these customers but also existing FWA subscribers. Once an FWA subscriber switches to T-Mobile Fiber, that opens the spectrum for additional FWA subscribers.

US telcos are moving quickly to expand the reach of their fiber, fixed wireless, and ISP services to complement their nationwide mobile networks because they smell blood among the largest cable operators. Telcos are disrupting the broadband market faster and more efficiently right now—a disruption that could very well be amplified by Federal and State subsidies.

With the rollout of 5G networks having had little impact on the profitability of mobile services, fixed wireless has emerged as the most successful use case for mobile network operators (MNOs) can monetize their excess 5G capacity. FWA’s timing couldn’t have been better, with inflation having increased from 2021 on, pushing subscribers to seek out more affordable—but still high quality—broadband service offerings. FWA hit the market providing a powerful combination of affordability, speed, and availability.

The success of FWA combined with overall fiber network expansions has given telcos a potent tool for not only the convergence of mobile and fixed broadband services but also the emergence of these services being offered on an almost nationwide basis. It’s pretty simple math. If you can offer a product or service to a larger number of end customers, the higher the likelihood of continued net subscriber additions, all other things being equal.

Even in markets where there is overlap between fixed wireless and that MNO’s own (or marketed) fiber broadband services, there isn’t really a danger of cannibalization, because the two services will very likely address very different subscribers. As the telcos’ ARPU (average revenue per unit) results have shown, subscribers are willing to pay more for fiber-based connectivity. In 2Q24, for example, AT&T announced that its fiber broadband ARPU is $69 and that the mix shift of its subscribers to fiber has pushed overall broadband ARPU up to $66.17, representing a 6% increase from 2Q23.

Meanwhile, in the second quarter, T-Mobile reported an ARPA figure of $142.54, which was up from $138.94 in 2Q23. Partially fueling that increase was an increase in the number of customers per account, due largely to the adoption of FWA services. Remember, T-Mobile prices and treats its FWA offering as an additional line of service, making it very simple to add to an existing T-Mobile account.

With a starting price point of $50 and typical download speeds ranging from 33-182 Mbps and upload speeds of 6-23 Mbps, T-Mobile is clearly targeting the low-mid cable broadband tiers—and having a great deal of success in converting those subscribers.

Going forward, the 1-2 punch of FWA and fiber will allow the largest telcos to have substantially larger broadband footprints than their cable competitors. Combine that with growing ISP relationships with open access providers and these telcos can expand their footprint and potential customer base further. And by expanding further, we don’t just mean total number of homes passed, but also businesses, enterprises, MDUs (multi-dwelling units), and data centers. Fiber footprint is as much about total route miles as it is about total passings. And those total route miles are, once again, increasing in value, after a prolonged slump.

For cable operators to successfully respond, consolidation likely has to be back on the table. The name of the game in the US right now is how to expand the addressable market of subscribers or risk being limited to existing geographic serving areas. Beyond that, continuing to focus on the aggressive bundling of converged services, which certainly has paid dividends in the form of new mobile subscribers.

Beyond that, being able to get to market quickly in new serving areas will be critical. In this time of frenzied buildouts and expansions, the importance of the first mover advantage can not be overstated.

The push and pull of broadband and wireless subscribers isn’t expected to slow down anytime soon. Certainly, with inflation continuing to put pressure on household budgets, consumers are going to be focused on keeping their communications costs low and looking for value wherever they can find it. That means we are returning to an environment where subscribers take advantage of introductory pricing on services only to switch providers to extend that introductory pricing once the initial offer expires. That shifting and its expected downward pressure on residential ARPU will likely be countered by increasing ARPUs at some providers as they move existing DSL customers to fiber or, in the case of cable operators, move customers to multi-gigabit tiers.

The US broadband market is definitely in for a wild ride over the next few years as the competitive landscape changes across many markets. The net result is certain to be shifts in market share and ebbs and flows in net subscriber additions depending on consumer sentiment. One thing that will remain constant is that value and reliability will remain key components of any subscription decision. The providers that deliver on that consistently will ultimately be the winners.

References:

Ethernet Campus Switch Revenues Plunge by 30 Percent in 2Q 2024, According to Dell’Oro Group

1H24 Worldwide Telecom Equipment Down 17%

US Telcos Betting on Convergence and Scale To End Cable’s Broadband Reign

Dell’Oro: Private RAN revenue declines slightly, but still doing relatively better than public RAN and WLAN markets

Dell’Oro: Campus Ethernet Switch Revenues dropped 23% YoY in 1Q-2024

Dell’Oro: RAN revenues declined sharply in 2023 and will remain challenging in 2024; top 8 RAN vendors own the market

Dell’Oro: Broadband Equipment Spending to exceed $120B from 2022 to 2027

Dell’Oro: RAN Market to Decline 1% CAGR; Mobile Core Network growth reduced to 1% CAGR

Dell’Oro: Optical Transport market to hit $17B by 2027; Lumen Technologies 400G wavelength market

 

Dell’Oro: Private RAN revenue declines slightly, but still doing relatively better than public RAN and WLAN markets

Dell’Oro Group reports that Private Wireless Radio Access Network (RAN) revenue growth slowed slightly in the second quarter on a year-over-year basis relative to the ~40 percent increase in 2023. Still, the tapering is in line with expectations and private wireless is performing significantly better on a relative basis than both public RAN and enterprise WLAN.  [However, it’s a much smaller market.]

“With public MBB investments slowing, the expectations with new growth opportunities such as Fixed Wireless Access and private wireless are rising,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “The results in the quarter and the trends over the past year validate this message that we have communicated now for some time, namely that the enterprise is a very large and mostly untapped opportunity. The market will continue to grow faster than both public RAN and enterprise WLAN, but because of the lower starting point, it will take some time before enterprise RAN revenues are large enough to stabilize public MBB swings,” continued Pongratz.

Additional highlights from the September 2024 Private Wireless Report:

  • Contract activity is slowing but the quality of the contracts is improving and increasingly includes larger, multi-site, and even multi-country agreements.
  • Regional activity is mostly stable. The three largest regions in 1H24 from a revenue perspective include China, North America, and EMEA.
  • Vendor rankings did not change in 1H24. The evolving scope of private wireless taken together with the fact that the $20 B+ enterprise RAN opportunity remains largely untapped is spurring interest from a broad array of participants across the ecosystem. Still, the traditional RAN suppliers are currently well-positioned in this initial phase.
  • Top 3 Private Wireless RAN suppliers in 1H24 are Huawei, Nokia, and Ericsson.
  • Top 3 Private Wireless RAN suppliers in 1H24 excluding China are Nokia, Ericsson, and Samsung.
  • Projections are mostly unchanged. Private wireless RAN revenues are projected to grow at a 21 percent CAGR over the next five years, while public RAN revenues are set to decline at a 3 percent CAGR over the same time period.

About the Report:

Dell’Oro Group’s Private Wireless Advanced Research Report includes both quarterly vendors share data and a 5-year forecast for Private Wireless RAN by RF Output Power, technology, spectrum, and region. To purchase this report, please contact us at [email protected].

About Dell’Oro Group:

Dell’Oro Group is a market research firm that specializes in strategic competitive analysis in the telecommunications, security, enterprise networks, and data center markets. Our firm provides in-depth quantitative data and qualitative analysis to facilitate critical, fact-based business decisions. For more information, contact Dell’Oro Group at +1.650.622.9400 or visit https://www.delloro.com.

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Ericsson and Nokia – Private Wireless Network Initiatives:

  • Last week, Ericsson shared details of its enterprise 5G strategy, formulated after its 2020 Cradlepoint acquisition which provides both private 5G and neutral host solutions.  “Ericsson’s strategic and comprehensive approach to evolving its private networking portfolio is addressing the growing demand for secure, high-performance connectivity in enterprises,” the vendor quoted Pablo Tomasi, Principal Analyst for Private Networks and Enterprise 5G at Omdia, as saying in its strategy announcement. “Ericsson’s ability to meet customers where they are in their 5G journey with a unified experience will be critical in helping the market scale and enabling enterprises leveraging 5G to transform in a meaningful way,” Tomasi added.
  • Nokia has made myriad private networking deal announcements in the past couple of years and recently revealed the results of a market study it commissioned that paints the sector in a very positive light. Early adopters have been scaling up deployments, adding new locations for example, and the vast majority of those surveyed – 93%, to be exact – claimed to have generated a return on investment within a year; almost a quarter did so in just one month. That’s a strong message and one designed to help drive the market forwards.

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References:

Private Wireless RAN Revenues up 24 percent in 2Q 2024, According to Dell’Oro Group

https://www.telecoms.com/telecoms-infrastructure/private-ran-revenues-continue-to-grow-amid-vendor-push

Dell’Oro: RAN market still declining with Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung top vendors

Highlights of Dell’Oro’s 5-year RAN forecast

Dell’Oro: 2023 global telecom equipment revenues declined 5% YoY; Huawei increases its #1 position

Dell’Oro & Omdia: Global RAN market declined in 2023 and again in 2024

Dell’Oro: Private 5G ecosystem is evolving; vRAN gaining momentum; skepticism increasing

HPE Aruba Launches “Cloud Native” Private 5G Network with 4G/5G Small Cell Radios

SNS Telecom & IT: Private 5G Network market annual spending will be $3.5 Billion by 2027

Ericsson and Vodafone enable Irish rugby team to use Private 5G SA network for 2023 Rugby World Cup

Wipro and Cisco Launch Managed Private 5G Network-as-a-Service Solution

 

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