Countdown to Q-day: How modern-day Quantum and AI collusion could lead to The Death of Encryption

By Omkar Ashok Bhalekar with Ajay Lotan Thakur

Behind the quiet corridors of research laboratories and the whir of supercomputer data centers, a stealth revolution is gathering force, one with the potential to reshape the very building blocks of cybersecurity. At its heart are qubits, the building blocks of quantum computing, and the accelerant force of generative AI. Combined, they form a double-edged sword capable of breaking today’s encryption and opening the door to an era of both vast opportunity and unprecedented danger.

Modern Cryptography is Fragile

Modern-day computer security relies on the un-sinking complexity of certain mathematical problems. RSA encryption, introduced for the first time in 1977 by Rivest, Shamir, and Adleman, relies on the principle that factorization of a 2048-bit number into primes is computationally impossible for ordinary computers (RSA paper, 1978). Also, Diffie-Hellman key exchange, which was described by Whitfield Diffie and Martin Hellman in 1976, offers key exchange in a secure manner over an insecure channel based on the discrete logarithm problem (Diffie-Hellman paper, 1976). Elliptic-Curve Cryptography (ECC) was described in 1985 independently by Victor Miller and Neal Koblitz, based on the hardness of elliptic curve discrete logarithms, and remains resistant to brute-force attacks but with smaller key sizes for the same level of security (Koblitz ECC paper, 1987).

But quantum computing flips the script. Thanks to algorithms like Shor’s Algorithm, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could factor large numbers exponentially faster than regular computers rendering RSA and ECC utterly useless. Meanwhile, Grover’s Algorithm provides symmetric key systems like AES with a quadratic boost.

What would take millennia or centuries to classical computers, quantum computers could boil down to days or even hours with the right scale. In fact, experts reckon that cracking RSA-2048 using Shor’s Algorithm could take just 20 million physical qubits which is a number that’s diminishing each year.

Generative AI adds fuel to the fire

While quantum computing threatens to undermine encryption itself, generative AI is playing an equally insidious but no less revolutionary role. By mass-producing activities such as the development of malware, phishing emails, and synthetic identities, generative AI models, large language models, and diffusion-based visual synthesizers, for example, are lowering the bar on sophisticated cyberattacks.

Even worse, generative AI can be applied to model and experiment with vulnerabilities in implementations of cryptography, including post-quantum cryptography. It can be employed to assist with training reinforcement learning agents that optimize attacks against side channels or profile quantum circuits to uncover new behaviors.

With quantum computing on the horizon, generative AI is both a sophisticated research tool and a player to watch when it comes to weaponization. On the one hand, security researchers utilize generative AI to produce, examine, and predict vulnerabilities in cryptography systems to inform the development of post-quantum-resistant algorithms. Meanwhile, it is exploited by malicious individuals for their ability to automate the production of complex attack vectors like advanced malware, phishing attacks, and synthetic identities radically reducing the barrier to conducting high impact cyberattacks. This dual-use application of generative AI radically shortens the timeline for adversaries to take advantage of breached or transitional cryptographic infrastructures, practically bridging the window of opportunity for defenders to deploy effective quantum-safe security solutions.

Real-World Implications

The impact of busted cryptography is real, and it puts at risk the foundations of everyday life:

1. Online Banking (TLS/HTTPS)

When you use your bank’s web site, the “https” in the address bar signifies encrypted communication over TLS (Transport Layer Security). Most TLS implementations rely on RSA or ECC keys to securely exchange session keys. A quantum attack would decrypt those exchanges, allowing an attacker to decrypt all internet traffic, including sensitive banking data.

2. Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies use ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm) for signing transactions. If quantum computers can crack ECDSA, a hacker would be able to forge signatures and steal digital assets. In fact, scientists have already performed simulations in which a quantum computer might be able to extract private keys from public blockchain data, enabling theft or rewriting the history of transactions.

3. Government Secrets and Intelligence Archives

National security agencies all over the world rely heavily on encryption algorithms such as RSA and AES to protect sensitive information, including secret messages, intelligence briefs, and critical infrastructure data. Of these, AES-256 is one that is secure even in the presence of quantum computing since it is a symmetric-key cipher that enjoys quantum resistance simply because Grover’s algorithm can only give a quadratic speedup against it, brute-force attacks remain gigantic in terms of resources and time. Conversely, asymmetric cryptographic algorithms like RSA and ECC, which underpin the majority of public key infrastructures, are fundamentally vulnerable to quantum attacks that can solve the hard mathematical problems they rely on for security.

Such a disparity offers a huge security gap. Information obtained today, even though it is in such excellent safekeeping now, might not be so in the future when sufficiently powerful quantum computers will be accessible, a scenario that is sometimes referred to as the “harvest now, decrypt later” threat. Both intelligence agencies and adversaries could be quietly hoarding and storing encrypted communications, confident that quantum technology will soon have the capability to decrypt this stockpile of sensitive information. The Snowden disclosures placed this threat in the limelight by revealing that the NSA catches and keeps vast amounts of global internet traffic, such as diplomatic cables, military orders, and personal communications. These repositories of encrypted data, unreadable as they stand now, are an unseen vulnerability; when Q-Day which is the onset of available, practical quantum computers that can defeat RSA and ECC, come around, confidentiality of decades’ worth of sensitive communications can be irretrievably lost.

Such a compromise would have apocalyptic consequences for national security and geopolitical stability, exposing classified negotiations, intelligence operations, and war plans to adversaries. Such a specter has compelled governments and security entities to accelerate the transition to post-quantum cryptography standards and explore quantum-resistant encryption schemes in an effort to safeguard the confidentiality and integrity of information in the era of quantum computing.

Arms Race Toward Post-Quantum Cryptography

In response, organizations like NIST are leading the development of post-quantum cryptographic standards, selecting algorithms believed to be quantum resistant. But migration is glacial. Implementing backfitting systems with new cryptographic foundations into billions of devices and services is a logistical nightmare. This is not a process of merely software updates but of hardware upgrades, re-certifications, interoperability testing, and compatibility testing with worldwide networks and critical infrastructure systems, all within a mode of minimizing downtime and security vulnerabilities.

Building such a large quantum computer that can factor RSA-2048 is an enormous task. It would require millions of logical qubits with very low error rates, it’s estimated. Today’s high-end quantum boxes have less than 100 operational qubits, and their error rates are too high to support complicated processes over a long period of time. However, with continued development of quantum correction methods, materials research, and qubit coherence times, specialists warn that effective quantum decryption capability may appear more quickly than the majority of organizations are prepared to deal with.

This convergence time frame, when old and new environments coexist, is where danger is most present. Attackers can use generative AI to look for these hybrid environments in which legacy encryption is employed, by botching the identification of old crypto implementations, producing targeted exploits en masse, and choreographing multi-step attacks that overwhelm conventional security monitoring and patching mechanisms.

Preparing for the Convergence

In order to be able to defend against this coming storm, the security strategy must evolve:

Inventory Cryptographic Assets: Firms must take stock of where and how encryption is being used across their environments.
Adopt Crypto-Agility: System needs to be designed so it can easily switch between encryption algorithms without full redesign.
Quantum Test Threats: Use AI tools to stress-test quantum-like threats in encryption schemes.

Adopt PQC and Zero-Trust Models: Shift towards quantum-resistant cryptography and architectures with breach as the new default state.

In Summary

Quantum computing is not only a looming threat, it is a countdown to a new cryptographic arms race. Generative AI has already reshaped the cyber threat landscape, and in conjunction with quantum power, it is a force multiplier. It is a two-front challenge that requires more than incremental adjustment; it requires a change of cybersecurity paradigm.

Panic will not help us. Preparation will.

Abbreviations

RSA – Rivest, Shamir, and Adleman
ECC – Elliptic-Curve Cryptography
AES – Advanced Encryption Standard
TLS – Transport Layer Security
HTTPS – Hypertext Transfer Protocol Secure
ECDSA – Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm
NSA – National Security Agency
NIST – National Institute of Standards and Technology
PQC – Post-Quantum Cryptography

References

***Google’s Gemini is used in this post to paraphrase some sentences to add more context. ***

About Author:

Omkar Bhalekar is a senior network engineer and technology enthusiast specializing in Data center architecture, Manufacturing infrastructure, and Sustainable solutions with extensive experience in designing resilient industrial networks and building smart factories and AI data centers with scalable networks. He is also the author of the Book Autonomous and Predictive Networks: The future of Networking in the Age of AI and co-author of Quantum Ops – Bridging Quantum Computing & IT Operations. Omkar writes to simplify complex technical topics for engineers, researchers, and industry leaders.

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