Technology Blog

We’ve written about the huge potential for WiMAX in India for many years, but we still don’t see any broad committment by Indian mobile operators to the technology.  Last year, the Indian government raised over Rs 38,300 crore through the auction of Broadband Wireless Access (BWA) spectrum which was expected to be used to deploy mobile WiMAX (IEEE 802.16e-2005).  However, none of the network operators in India has yet made a formal announcement on their plans for offering BWA services or the chosen technology.

Reliance Infotel (the only company with a pan-India license) is doing trials using TD-LTE technology.  So it was anticipated that other operators might also opt for the same technology, but none have announced their intentions to date.

The WiMAX Forum has said they are “not threatened” by TD-LTE, as the market is big enough for both technologies to co-exist.  WiMAX Forum Director of Marketing Declan Byrne recently stated, “We are not threatened by the (TD-LTE) technology. We are actually delivering mobile broadband, while TD-LTE is still under trial. My request to the TD-LTE camp is — this is a big market, let us cooperate to serve it well.  We are hearing a very positive response. Operators are testing equipments (in India) and we remain positive on the market here.”

Yet it remains to be seen whether the companies would deploy TD-LTE, WiMAX or a hybrid-type network (supporting WiMAX in the initial stage with a migration path to TD-LTE).

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/software/india-big-market-for-broadband-wimax/articleshow/7304778.cms

Closing Comment:  Despite the steady growth in India’s mobile subscriber base to over 700 mn, broadband segment remains an area of concern. Although broadband uptake has increased in couple of years yet the penetration level is just 0.74%, lowest in the world. With an increasing focus on wireless broadband it is more likely to present a huge opportunity for all stakeholders in the value chain-operators, Internet service providers, equipment, manufacturers and value added service providers.  This is why India has so much untapped potential for mobile and fixed wireless access!

Addendum

January 2011 WiMAX Forum Industry report:

http://www.wimaxforum.org/resources/monthly-industry-report

Here is a map of Global WiMAX deployments (somewhat difficult to decipher, IMHO).  WiMAX Forum cautions the reader:

“Please note that the numbers below do not necessarily represent total WiMAX networks in existence, but rather the total deployments that we currently track.”

http://www.wimaxmaps.org/

Report from the Taipei WiMAX Summit

ITU-R had blessed IEEE 802.16m earlier this year, as the first true 4G RAN technology (along with LTE Advanced). That standard is to be finalized and approved in March of this year. The 2011 Taipei WiMAX Summit, held by Taiwan`s Ministry of Economic Affair officials on Jan. 10 at Grand Hotel in conjunction with week-long IEEE 802.16 meeting and WiMAX Forum Global Operator Summit, have drawn over 100 global WiMAX operators to the island. That’s quite positive for the local Taiwanese WiMAX equipment makers. Let’s hope they’re not disappointed!

IEEE 802.16’s Session #71 was held on 10-13 January 2011 in Taipei. This Interim Session of the Working Group was sponsored by ITRI and MediaTek, with Global Mobile providing WiMAX-based network services. The 802.16m editors will prepare a final draft standard – P802.16m/D11- which the 802.16 WG will vote on as a confirmation recirculation ballot for final standard approval.The IEEE 802.16 Session #71 Report summarizes the outcomes: <http://ieee802.org/16/meetings/mtg71/report.html>.

The next IEEE 802.16 meeting (Session #72) will take place on 14-17 March 2011 in Singapore: Here’s the meeting announcement:
http://ieee802.org/16/meetings/mtg72

Other References:

http://viodi.com/2010/10/20/itu-r-progresses-lte-advanced-and-wimax-2-0-as-4g-ran-standards/
http://news.cens.com/cens/html/en/news/news_inner_35072.html

Here’s an upbeat article on WiMAX 2.0 from Taipei:

“The next generation of the WiMAX standard will be commercialized this year, industry officials promised as they gathered in Taiwan for technology meetings last week. WiMAX2, based on the 802.16m standard, will be backwards compatible with the current Mobile WiMAX platform, but with faster data rates, and enhanced security and power efficiency. It will also support wide 20MHz channels.

The Taipei meetings were a prelude to the finalization of the IEEE’s 16m standard in March, which would set the scene for products to appear at the end of this year. The certification and interoperability testing processes, which were lengthy for the current 16e platform, should be far quicker this time, because it is an extension of an existing standard, and because many lessons have been learned about how OFDMA-based devices behave.

[]Once 16m is approved this quarter, manufacturers will be able to pre-install the technology and begin the testing programs. Rakesh Taori, vice chair of the 802.16 working group, told IDG that key enhancements will be better battery life for devices; privacy protection for users and their locations; and the doubling of bandwidth, which will enable data rates that will leapfrog those of LTE and get closer to the goal of ‘true 4G’, at 100Mbps while mobile.

Taiwan’s state-run Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) is working closely with 10 local manufacturers to kickstart the uptake of WiMAX2. Taiwan has been a critical player in the WiMAX market, placing the weight of its vast manufacturing community behind the technology and aiming to create a national mobile broadband network based on 16e. This is a technology that Taiwan feels it can influence in IPR terms too, unlike 3GPP standards. An ITRI engineer, Song Ting-chen, said in an interview: “That way we’ll be able to exercise our competitiveness in terms of patents or our manufacturing. Some of our contributions have already been accepted by the international community.”

http://wimaxtaipei.tw/news_headline_detail.php?id=2273

http://www.rethink-wireless.com/2011/01/11/wimax2-commercialized-year.htm

Our Opinion:

We continue to believe that IEEE 802.16m will be a “paper tiger” standard and while the technology specs are impressive, any implementations will be DOA. In particular, we wonder if any large network operator will deploy WiMAX 2.0? Doesn’t look like it will be Sprint or Clearwire, who are testing LTE instead. If it’s just UQ Communications in Japan and a few small Taiwanese carriers, that’s hardly enough to establish volumes of scale (critical mass) that are needed to drive the manufacturing costs down.

Moreover, there don’t seem to be any prototype chips or emulators available for testing WiMAX 2.0 this Spring. And we just heard that WiMAX super cheerleader Intel has closed it’s WiMAX Program Office. So where does that leave WiMAX 2.0 implementations?

Most people don’t want to admit it, but IEEE 802 has consistently failed in producing standards for commercially viable MAN/WAN technologies. The list of failures includes IEEE 802.6 DQDB, 802.3ah Ethernet First Mile (EFM), 802.17 Resilient Packet Rings, 802.20 Mobile Broadband Wireless Access, and 802.22 Cognitive Radio based Regional Area Networks. We think 802.16e-2005 WiMAX 1.0 can succeed as a wireless DSL replacement in developing countries and in rural areas of developed countries.  But it can’t compete with 3G+/LTE which makes it exremely difficult to justify infrastructure for WiMAX 2.0.

Would welcome any challenges to these opinions in the comment box below.

And why not?  We already pay for premium Internet content, e..g Netflix and other video streaming, WSJ and other on line newspapers/magazines, telco TV, mlb.com, nba.com, nhl.com, etc.  It appears that BT Wholesale and Metro PCs in the U.S. will be introducing two tiered networks where customers will pay more for a higher quality of service.

1.  BT Wholesale”s new service, called Content Connect, will be sold to their UK broadband network provider customers.  It aims to give those network providers tthe opportunity to charge content owners for high quality distribution of their video products to consumers. Sally Davis, head of BT Wholesale, said that by using BT’s new network,broadband providers should be able to reduce their costs partly by cutting spending on “backhaul” connections between telephone exchanges and their core infrastructure.

Ms Davis said broadband providers using BT’s network may be able to give their customers the option to make an on-demand payment for watching a live event such as football. The payment would be in addition to charges associated with watching premium content like live football games. 

Content Connect Key Benefits (according to BT)

-End Users benefit from the new Content Connect product:

•TV video entertainment will be delivered to the home through a broadband line with the option of an enhanced experience including HD internet video on TV.

-ISPs benefit from the new Content Connect product:

•Brings ISPs into the content value chain and allows them to earn revenue from delivering internet video from CSPs .

CSPs benefit from the new Content Connect product:

•CSPs can have their content delivered at a higher quality of service.  

http://www.btwholesale.com/pages/static/Products/Broadband/Wholesale_Content_Connect.html

As one might expect, BT has been sharply criticized for offering Content Connect by advocates of Internet freedom.  They perceive the new BT offering as one of the first steps on the road to a two-tier internet, meaning content providers unwilling or unable to pay extra will be hampered by a slower service.

Jim Killock, executive director of the Open Rights Group, said the issue comes down to ISPs competing with the internet for content delivery.  “The result could be a fundamental shift away from buying services from the internet to bundled services from ISPs: which would reduce competition and take investment away from internet companies.”

BT defended its decision by saying it should be allowed the freedom to make commercial deals with content providers, such as 4OD and YouTube, to ensure faster delivery.  “We are an enabler – we are not dictating anything,” said the company.  “It will be up to broadcasters, ISPs and content owners to work together to decide on the charging model for a service.”

Proponents of net neutrality argue that fair access to content for all providers is one of the founding principles of the internet, and founding father of the web Tim Berners-Lee is well-known as an outspoken supporter of it.

http://www.broadband-finder.co.uk/news/bt/is-bt-helping-the-shift-towards-a-twotier-internet_800326588.html

2.  Meanwhile, MetroPCS’s “4G LTE” mobile broadband plans, are charging subscribers for content delivery at different rates.  Before selecting a wireless plan with MetroPCS, subscribers have to decide how much content you want access to.  Here’s the breakdown of the three plans MetroPCs is offering:

•The $40 service plan offers unlimited talk, text, 4G Web browsing with unlimited YouTube access. For $40 per month you can watch as many YouTube videos as you like and browse the web freely. But if you try and watch a video through a service other than YouTube it will not play because your plan does not cover it.
•The $50 service plan includes the same unlimited talk, text, 4G Web services and unlimited YouTube access as the $40 plan. Additional features include international and premium text messaging, turn-by-turn navigation with MetroNAVIGATOR™, ScreenIT, mobile instant messaging, corporate e-mail and 1 GB of additional data access, with premium features available through MetroSTUDIO™ when connected via Wi-Fi, including audio capabilities to listen and download music and access to preview and trial video content.
•The $60 service plan provides the same premium features as the $50 plan, plus unlimited data access and MetroSTUDIO premium content such as 18 video-on-demand channels and audio downloads.  Ultimately MetroPCS is only offering a complete Internet experience for $60.
 

The new plans will initially be offered in Boston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, New York City, Philadelphia, Sacramento and San Francisco. Atlanta, Jacksonville, Miami, Orlando and Tampa will come online at some point this year.

For more details:  MetroPCS’ New 4G LTE Plans Offer Unprecedented Value and Choice with Prices Starting at Just $40

http://www.metropcs.com/presscenter/newsreleasedetails.aspx?id=1

Also, this article: MetroPCS LTE Plans to Charge More for VoIP & Streaming

http://gigaom.com/2011/01/04/metropcs-lte-plans-charge-more-for-skype-and-streaming/?utm_source=webworkerdaily&utm_medium=specialtopics

3.  What side are you on in this network neutrality vs two tiered Internet paradigm shift?  Please comment in the box below!

Smart Phones Produce Bulk of Mobile Traffic:

According to Informa’s Telecom and Media research unit, smartphone use accounts for 65 per cent of all mobile cellular traffic worldwide.  This, despite smartphone penetration running at just 13 per cent,  The firm predicts smarphone network usage is set to increase exponentially over the next five years’  Informa found the average traffic per smartphone user increasing by 700 per cent by 2015.
Smartphone users across the globe currently average 85MB of traffic per month, with Apple’s iPhone proving the handset on which most
traffic is generated. Devices running the Android OS sit behind the iPhone in terms of traffic generation, and the Google-backed OS will not overtake Apple in this metric, Informa said, because Android will be deployed across low-, mid- and highuser segments.

“The traffic disparity between smartphone and non-smartphone is most pronounced in North America, where 86 per cent of mobile data traffic is currently generated by smartphone users,” said Malik Kamal-Saadi, principal analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media. Average traffic per user (ATPU) for smartphones in the US is set to hit 776MB/month by 2015, Informa said.

Growth in Western Europe will also be impressive, hitting 736MB/month in 2015, up from less than 44MB/month in 2009. The highest use will remain in the advanced markets of Japan and South Korea, which currently average 199MB/month and 271MB/month.

http://www.informatm.com/content/marlincontent/ITMG/ibctelecoms/matt/MCI/MCI168.pdf

Comment:  We think that the increasing use of tablet PCs (e.g. iPAD), netbooks and eReaders will generate more mobile traffic than smart phones in coming years. 

Coping with the Explosion in Mobile Data Traffic:

How will mobile operators deal with the surge in traffic growth?  Informa’s James Middleton+ believes there are three different approaches to alleviate network congestion:

– Move to LTE

-Employ some kind of offload strategy (femtocells) or network sharing

-Deploy optimization technologies, like compression

“The main consideration is that the traffic problem for many operators has already arrived—or will do very soon—and LTE is somewhat expensive and also has a long rollout cycle. An offload strategy may be more affordable and quicker to roll out but it will still take some time to complete. Which leaves us with optimisation, a system which is cheaper still and could potentially be deployed within weeks or months.”

*See Informa article: Traffic Police, which may be accesed from the above url, 

Our Opinion: 

Here’s our list of congestion avoidance methods: offloading mobile traffic to WiFi hot spots and femtocells, acquiring more spectrum, shrinking cell size which permits more frequency re-use, moving to OFDMA technologies (like LTE and mobile WiMAX), creating Self Organizing Networks (SONs) that reassign subscribers to base stations based on existing network load and avoiding congestion, using compression on video and large data files, and invoking some form of QoS/ traffic class management.

If there’s sufficient reader interest, I’ll wirte an article expaning on this important issue.  Please let me know!

A recent WSJ article – The Fiber-Optic Networks Regain Some Glow,- notes that there have been 14 acquisitions in the metro fiber industry this year alone and 45 since the fiber market began its turnaround in 2006. It states, “The deals have turned a market that once had many small participants and a few giants into one made up of a handful of regional and national players. Analysts say the consolidation has helped stabilize the prices fiber owners can charge customers like banks, phone carriers and universities that lease their networks.”

What we found most remarkable about this and similar articles, is that we’ve never heard of the new breed of fiber facilities based telcos Zayo Group, founded in 2007, was reported to be one of the largest with networks in 27 states and Washington DC. They have acquired 15 smaller fiber optic companies in the short time it has been in existence.

In Metro Route Mileage Leaders for Competitive Fiber Operators, Rob Powell of Telecom Ramblings lists the top 20 metro fiber CLECs, ranked by total mileage for metro loops and laterals, but NOT counting long haul links. To no one’s surprise, Level 3 leads the pack with 27,000 metro fiber miles, followed by TW Telecom with 21,000 miles.  Mr. Powell states that the list does not include the incumbents (e.g. AT&T, Verizon) and most cable operators (e.g. Comcast, TW Cable, others) – many of whom would obviously be at the top. Hence, this lisitng should be thought of as competitive metro fiber. 

Abstract:

Recently, we’ve written about cloud network infrastructure and the need for a UNI and (multiple) NNIs.  For more on that topic, please visit:

https://techblog.comsoc.org/2010/12/10/whats-the-uni-nni-and-network-infrastructure-needed-for-cloud-computing

In this article we look at telco benefits (both internal and external) of deploying cloud services as well as a cloud computing services model.  We believe that cloud computing offers great potential for telcos to participate in the growth of the enterprise, government, and consumer ICT markets, which are currently dominated by IT vendors (IBM, Cisco, Oracle, etc) and Internet software companies (i.e. Google, Amazon, Facebook, Yahoo, etc).  With a cloud computing services model, service providers can insert themselves into the value chain by redefining their roles to expand beyond connectivity and provide Web-based application delivery services.

Benefits of Cloud Computing to Network Provider:

A.  ITU-T FG Cloud Position

The benefits of cloud computing could  be considered from several different perspectives, including network/ service providers, partners and users.  The ITU-T FG-Cloud sees three potential benefits of cloud computing from a telecom/ICT provider perspective: 

1. To consider the cloud delivery model as a converged platform to deliver IT and communication services over any network (fixed, mobile and worldwide coverage) and used by any end user connected devices (PC, TV, Smart Phone, M2M, etc).
2. To deliver a rich set of communication services (voice & video call, audio, video & web conf, messaging, unified communication, content creation, workspace, broadcasting…) according to cloud multi-tenant consumption based usage model and creating mashups with Web 2.0 collaborative services for “Communication and Collaboration as Services” CaaS.
3. To consider network services (L2-L3 connectivity , VPN and L4-L7 network services) as smart pipes “high-grade network” for cloud services transport and cloud interconnection (inter-cloud) in order to guarantee secure and high performance end-to-end quality of service QoS for end users (considered as an important key differentiator for telecommunication players.

In addition to these main three benefits , some other benefits can be also considered from Service Provider and user perspectives:

• Cost saving: Cloud providers can host software at a much lower cost than enterprise customers can themselves. Virtualization and provisioning software lets them efficiently allocate computing resources, lowering their cost of hardware. Cloud computing service providers can locate facilities at low cost locations, provisioning which cannot be duplicated by most enterprises. There are low up-front costs. In fact, other than the costs for a user terminal (personal computer or smart phone), web browser and network capacity for each end-user, there are no software or hardware costs that customers need to pay.

• Improve Total Cost of Ownership & De-Risk: Investments are shifted from the upfront Capital Expense (CAPEX) to Operational expense (OPEX) for consuming IT resources. Increases capacity utilization of IT assets. User terminals, servers, or software, which is not needed in-house (Onsite), can be offered up for outsourcing (Online), and equipment not fully utilized can be used jointly with third parties to reduce idle time. Costs can also be reduced by short lead times, and by paying for just what is needed.

• Highly scalable and flexible infrastructure: Massively scalable engine allows building highly scalable services for customers and partners. Infrastructure scale with the demand for peak loads and seasonal variations.

• Efficiency & flexibility of resource management: Service providers can use more flexible and efficient resources (IT resources, server, storage and network resources) using virtualization technology in cloud computing.

• Business agility with rapid service deployment: Service provision with lower cost by efficient use and management of resources. The easier and faster a provider can perform an administrative task the more expedient the business moves, reducing costs or driving revenue. Easier to get IT operations established and less need for IT expertise at the company level. Provider also finds their speed of deployment is much quicker than if they were to build applications, or worse, a whole data center, from scratch.

• Reliability of service with high availability: Since the workloads can be spread across many facilities, and even across clouds, redundant instances of applications can be used to avoid downtime and increase the availability. In addition, data distribution strategies can help address disaster recovery and business continuity issues.

• Highly support of 3^rd party business: Intermediate service provider, utilize marketplace which allows multiple input from Independent Software Vendors among ISV, developers, cloud service (SaaS) providers, integrators, business customers, end users

• Energy efficiency: In principle, cloud computing can be an inherently energy-efficient technology for ICT provided that its potential for significant energy savings that have so far focused on hardware aspects, can be fully explored with respect to system operation and networking aspects.

ITU-T FG-Cloud home page: http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-T/focusgroups/cloud/Pages/default.aspx

B. Alcatel-Lucent strategic whitepaper: Assessing Cloud Computing- Challenges and opportunities for network providers, by Jane Anderson

Ms Anderson suggested cloud benefits for network providers:

• New revenue opportunities – network providers can benefit by switching enterprise-hosted services to private or virtual private clouds. This approach offers better margins, along with decreased management demands. A number of leading network providers have already introduced their own cloud services, and they will soon be followed by an array of other operators who have new services in development now.

• Exposure of capabilities – network providers can add new revenues through partnerships with application and content providers. As ACPs look for ways to enrich their services, control delivery and ensure quality, network providers can gain a better position in the cloud computing value chain by contributing their unique capabilities.

Ms Anderson concludes:  “The growth of cloud services has important implications for network providers. Like Internet video, cloud services currently add to today’s increasing demands for bandwidth, while delivering revenues primarily to application and content providers, rather than to network providers.”

“In addition, as consumers and businesses become increasingly aware of the limitations of existing cloud services, network providers have a key opportunity to promote themselves as the “safe” cloud services provider.”

C.. Independent Expert Opinion

Ray Mota, Managing Partner of ACG Research. identified five reasons on how network/ service providers could capitalize on cloud computing for their own business and for their customers:

1.  The value proposition of cloud computing
Cloud computing has the potential to affect service providers’ total operational costs by reducing the hardware and software requirements of their current networks and platforms. Network architectures that build on optimization and consolidation are a key interest — also, increasingly, a requirement — for all service providers. Cloud computing platforms also enable enterprises to provision an infrastructure and add computing capacity on demand. This elasticity promotes rapid deployment of solutions and allows service providers to scale their infrastructure based on demand and consequently to improve time to market for new services.

2. Web-based applications promote IT independence
With more employees scattered in global offices or telecommuting, Web-based services and applications are perfect for the rapidly changing enterprise workplace. Service providers can increase their revenue and market share and capitalize on Web-based application services by communicating and promoting the tangible business benefits to their customers.

Mobile communication, accelerated developments in broadband networking, open source technologies, and Web 2.0 have made on-demand services more reliable and affordable. Using cloud-based services, businesses can store more data than on private computer systems, allowing them to save on the processing power and hard disk space required for desktop software while giving them access to an unlimited number of applications. Additional benefits for businesses — and selling points for service providers — include lower costs, improved system performance, reduced software cost, instant software updates, data reliability, universal data access, and hardware/device independence.

3. Growing cloud-based managed services market produces revenue
The managed services market is one of the fastest growing segments in the IT industry, and service providers are uniquely positioned to capitalize on it. Cloud computing offers service providers an ideal model for developing managed services because they already have the scalable engine to build scalable services. By assuming an end-to-end position (application to end user) in the cloud computing value chain, the service provider can improve and add significant quality of service to user-to-application experiences. This network-based approach to service assurance can position service providers to capitalize on the software revenue market related to the use of the applications — a market that network providers have yet to fully explore and utilize.

4. Increasing carriers’ data center efficiency and operations
With typical data center costs running approximately 25% of total IT budgets, service providers are under pressure to find cost-efficient business solutions and models to operate their data centers. A cloud computing data center model enables rapid innovation, scalability and support of core enterprise functions, resulting in significant economies of scale. OpEx and CapEx savings are realized through the standardization of systems and software components. A cloud computing data center reduces the need for additional hardware, software and facilities, as well as automation of server, network, storage, operating systems and middleware provisioning, and security issues, all of which are costly and time-consuming functions.

A cloud computing platform also increases the utilization of servers, which can range from 20% to 70%, resulting in a decrease in required infrastructure. This hardware reduction translates to a dramatic drop in some associated operations expenditures: rack space, real estate, power and cooling. And let’s not forget the cost savings associated with continuity and data center longevity. The average life expectancy of a large data center is 12 years. With the cost of developing a data center at approximately $500 million, cloud computing becomes both a business and operational value.

Author’s note: We believe this internal use of cloud – for telco data centers – will yield an immediate payback on investment for telcos.  Especially, because of mergers, acquisitions, and industry consolidation, telcos own many geographically dispersed data centers where Operation Support Systems and Back End Network Management are done.  By outsourcing those data centers to the cloud (Infrastructure as a Service model), the many benefits stated above can be realized, with savings in cost, energy and a dramatic increase in productivity.

5. Differentiating service providers from the pack
The current economic climate has forced service providers to take a hard look at their business models and how they differentiate themselves from their competitors. The old business model was about cost-per-bit, but in the new paradigm, service providers realize they have to focus on what makes them stand out. Delivering cloud-based consumer and business-critical applications with solid service-level agreements (SLAs) will not only allow service providers to differentiate themselves but will maximize the value of the network while promoting a new business model.

Moving to a cloud-based platform poses challenges and concerns for service providers. Dealing with standards, security, performance, data compliance aligned with procedures and operations, and availability issues are just a few of the organizational and technical challenges they’ll have to address to make cloud computing a true value proposition. Service providers can leverage their reputations and solid performances to offer reliable, comprehensive and secure cloud services. Most importantly, service providers can show value by strongly emphasizing that cloud computing allows enterprises to focus on other aspects of their businesses without having to concentrate resources on IT, server updates, and maintenance issues — a win-win service offering for both service providers and their customers. And last but certainly not least, by ensuring the value of services delivered via cloud computing, service providers not only deliver business value to their users but increase and extend their sustainability.

For further information, please see:

Five telecom provider benefits of offering cloud computing services

http://searchtelecom.techtarget.com/tip/Five-telecom-provider-benefits-of-offering-cloud-computing-services1

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Follow up request: We welcome any comments, suggestions, or even differences of opinion – especially from the telcos. Let’s make this an interactive vs uni-directional web site!

After their 8th meeting in Ljubljana, Slovenia, the ITU-T FG-Future Networks has been exchanging emails and having conference calls to agree on several output documents for their parent organization- SG 13.  Here is a list of  the output documents dated December 22, 2010:

FGFN-OD68-MeetingReport-LjubljanaR1.doc
FGFN-OD72-FNvision.doc
FGFN-OD74-FNenergy_final_draft.doc
FGFN-OD75-terminologyR1.doc
FGFN-OD76-Projectdescription.doc
FGFN-OD77-finalReportR2.doc
FGFN-OD78-LiaisonLjubljana updated.doc

There is also a Virtualization document being prepared.  

FNvision or “Future Networks: Objectives and Design Goals”  is the document that the FG spent most of their time and effort on.  The FG proposes that SG13 to start the approval process for this document at thier January 2011 plenary meeting.  That document can be downloaded for free at:  http://www.itu.int/oth/T3A05000072/en

Other output documents,  for each of the FG-FN meetings, may be accessed at:  http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-T/focusgroups/fn/Pages/output.aspx

Working documents can ONLY be accessed by individuals that have an ITU-T TIES account.  If your organization is an ITU-T member and you’d like to participate in this committee, please contact the FG-FN Chairman: “Takashi Egawa” [email protected]

Here’s the link to an overview presentation of FG-FN by Mr. Egawa:

http://www.future-internet.eu/fileadmin/documents/valencia_documents/sessions/architecture3/Egawa_fia-itu.pdf

Call for Interest:  Currently, IEEE is not participating in this committee although I’m told that IEEE is a Sector Member of ITU-T.  Do you think IEEE ComSoc should have its own “Future Network” Task Force and if so, under what umbrella?

Infonetics Research (www.infonetics.com) released its updated Service Provider Outsourcing to Vendors market size, market share, and forecast report.  It confirms the mega trend of telcos outsourcing their network operations, e.g. Sprint’s network now managed by Ericsson.

ANALYST NOTE
“Fierce competition among telecom service providers around the world is driving them to increase operating expenses, and that in turn is forcing service providers to outsource more of their network tasks, because outsourcing is one of the last remaining ways to cut opex. With major outsourcing deals looming, Ericsson, Nokia Siemens Networks, Alcatel-Lucent, and Huawei may end up running three-quarters of the networks on this planet,” notes Stéphane Téral, Infonetics Research’s principal analyst for mobile and FMC infrastructure.

SERVICE PROVIDER OUTSOURCING HIGHLIGHTS
.    By the end of 2010, telecom service providers worldwide will have outsourced about $53.5 billion worth of networking tasks to equipment vendors, 8% more than they outsourced in 2009
.    Mobile network outsourcing is growing much faster than fixed (wireline) outsourcing: in 2008 revenue from mobile and fixed network outsourcing was roughly the same; by 2014, mobile network outsourcing will grow to account for 61% of all network outsourcing
.    The major growth areas for telecom network outsourcing include network maintenance, planning, design, and operations
.    Much of the growth in outsourced services is coming from EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa) and Asia Pacific, and to a lesser extent, Central and Latin America, with the Oi-Nokia Siemens deal in Brazil and activity increasing in Mexico

REPORT SYNOPSIS
Infonetics’ Service Provider Outsourcing to Vendors tracks the revenue vendors derive from the services they offer to their service provider clients, which include mobile and fixed network planning and design, building, maintenance, operations, application service delivery, service provisioning and activation, and billing. The report tracks worldwide and regional market size, market share, and forecasts through 2014.

The report provides market share for Alcatel-Lucent, Ciena, Cisco, Ericsson, Fujitsu, Hitachi, HP, Huawei, IBM, Juniper Networks, Microsoft, Motorola, NEC, Nokia Siemens Networks, Nortel, Tellabs, UTStarcom, ZTE, and others.

Please refer to this article for background info:  Will Outsourcing of Managed Services and Network Maintenance Make Telecoms More Competitive? 

http://viodi.com/2009/08/22/outsourcing-managed-services/



Introduction:

Cloud computing deployments are being announced on an almost daily basis. Cloud computing accelerates application development and deployment without upfront capital costs for servers and storage. For this reason, many enterprises, governments and network/service providers are now considering adopting cloud computing to provide more efficient and cost effective network services. The Cloud Computing market is forecast to be very big by IDC, Gartner Group, andother market research firms.

But there seems to be a lot of confusion regarding the service delivery method and lack of interoperability. More importantly, there are no solid standards for Infrastructure as a Service, Platform as a Service or Applications/Software as a Service, network infrastructure needed for them or the required network interfaces between customer-provider (UNI), or between cloud providers (NNI).  This results in difficulties in exchanging information between cloud service providers and for users that change providers. It may also present a problem when bursting between a private cloud and different public clouds. Interoperability facilitates secure information exchange across platforms. Why isn’t there more talk about these interfaces and network infrastructure (both fixed and mobile) for cloud computing? 

Most cloud pundits assume the UNI will be a broadband IP VPN (over whatever PHY layer access is used).  Will that IP VPN deliver the necessary performance, reliability/availablity and security that’s required- particularly for access to a public cloud?  And how do different cloud network providers communicate, e.g. what’s the NNI?  This is particularly important for Federated and Hybrid (Public-Private) Clouds, yet the topic is not discussed at Cloud Computing Conferences,  Finally, we don’t know of any standards organizations, including ITU-T FG-Cloud and IEEE Cloud Computing Initiative  that are seriously pursuing these very important network aspects of Cloud.  That said, the ITU-T FG-Cloud plans to work on the Cloud network infrastructure requirement and architecture design to fulfill intra-cloud, inter-cloud and the core transport network use cases, and network resource management issues as well.  (See ITU-T FG Cloud section below).  That’s a start, but we think a lot more work will be necessary for true multi-vendor  interoperability.

Discussion:

Cloud Computing represents a unique opportunity for service providers to provide bundled offerings which combine Network and IT resources. We think that service providers can leverage their network assets by providing five nine’s network availability and excellent performance for secure end to end cloud services. Another opportunity for service providers is to evolve network resource allocation and control to be more dynamic, in order to provide on-demand provisioning of cloud services.

But what about the different types of network access, especially the choice between a L2 (Ethernet) and L3 (IP) VPN?  And various scenarios for IP VPN -to-private line communications?  In particular, what does the protocol stack look like for UNI and various types of NNI’s?  Who will decide these critical issues and promulgate the network related standards for cloud computing is anyone’s guess at this time.

ITU-T FG Cloud Work on Network Infrastructure:

The ITU-T FG Cloud has had only three meetings.  Among other things, it is pursuing work on cloud network infrastructure that’s focused on several objectives: the ability to link existing networks services, Internet connectivity,  L2/L3 VPN efficiency to deliver public or private cloud services.  The ability to link a flexible L2 & L3 network management and cloud technology to form an integrated cloud infrastructure would enable various types of cloud services.

Three distinct cloud network types have been defined ny FG-Cloud:

1. Intra-cloud network: this network is to connect local cloud infrastructures, such as data center LAN used to connect servers, storage arrays and L4-L7 services (firewalls, load balancers, application acceleration devices, IDS/IPS…).

2. Core transport network (WAN/MAN): this is the network used by customers to access and consume cloud services deployed within the cloud provider’s data center.

3. Inter-cloud network: this network role is to interconnect cloud infrastructures together. These cloud infrastructures may be owned by the same cloud provider or by different ones.

These three network components are essential for cloud services composition and delivery. In order to provide a real added value in support of cloud services, they must offer their network requirements (to cloud service users) in terms of flexibility, scalability,and on-demand resource provisioning. More importantly, advanced networking functions are necessary to ensure performance, security and availability of the various types of cloud services.

One of the most intriquing work areas of this FG-Cloud are the upper layer (L4-L7) services that may reside within the Cloud Transport Network.  The ITU-FG takes this position:

“In order to transform the core transport network into “smart-pipes” with real added value for cloud services delivery, the core network component should be able to provide on-demand L4-L7 network services required to ensure the performance, security and availability. Some examples of this requirement are:

1. Security functions: provide on-demand security functions within the core transport network to protect and control customers traffic to cloud services. An example is firewalling functions and intrusion detection and prevention.

2. Performance: provide on-demand application acceleration and optimization services for cloud services. This is essential to ensure application performance because these application will be accessed remotely (from customers sites to the cloud providers sites) and it is well known that most of business applications were initially designed for LAN environment and are negatively impacted by the delays and packet loss of the core transport network.”

In our opinion, this effort is commendible, but is just scratching the service.  For sure, a lot more work lies ahead.  So it may be years before we see a high level of interoperability amongst the many different types of cloud services and networks that support them.

IEEE Cloud Computing Standards Study Group:

A call for participation for the IEEE Cloud Computing Standards Study Group, sponsored by the IEEE Computer Society Standards Activities Board (SAB), was issued months ago.  We have not seen an announcement on an initial meeting or conference call to get organized.. An IEEE Standards Study Group is the initial step in the process of developing a IEEE standard and is open to all interested individuals.

The mission of the IEEE Cloud Computing Standards Study Group is to determine the feasibility of developing an open standards profile which defines options for portability and interoperability of cloud computing resources. These profiles should address issues such as interfaces to computing, storage, network, and content resources, as well as workload (program and data) interoperability and migration, security, fault-tolerance, agency, legal and regulatory, intra-cloud policy negotiation, and financial relationships. It is expected that there will be multiple architectural approaches from which to choose.

The profiles should also support the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS), Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS), and Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) service models, and the private cloud, community cloud, hybrid cloud, and public cloud deployment models.

For further information and/or to be added to the IEEE CCSSG mailing list, please contact Steve Diamond, Chair, IEEE Cloud Computing Standards Study Group, at ieee-ccssg-chair [at] intercloud [dot] org

In its new report:  “4G Fuels the Decade of Disruption,” the Yankee Group predicts a slow start for 4G but says moves made by players in 2011 will determine their ultimate fate in the marketplace.

“Connectivity—especially mobile connectivity—drives disruption in the telecom arena,Once 4G takes hold, its impact will be swift and profound, and 2011 is the year to prepare.”” said Jason Armitage, senior analyst at Yankee Group and a co-author of the report. We are hoping to have a phone interview with Jason who works and lives in London, England

Here are the 2011 predictions for 4G from Yankee Group:

1. 4G will be a “drop in the ocean.” By the end of 2011, the world’s most important 4G technology (LTE) will account for only 0.04 percent of all global mobile lines (but 0.33% in US).

2. 4G will fail to win the enterprise. Currently, less than a third of enterprise decision-makers believe 4G is important; that number won’t budge by year end.

3. 4G killer device will be a hotspot. Users will gravitate to hotspots’ simplicity and savings, reducing 4G subscriptions in the long run.

4. Competition in the U.S. will create a 4G marketing mess. As operators slap the “4G” moniker on everything from WiMAX and LTE to HSPA+, confusion will abound.

5. A denial-of-service attack will take a 4G network down. In their rush to roll out 4G, operators are cutting corners on security; one unlucky operator will pay the price.

6. Chinese vendors will beat 3G incumbents in their own backyards. Both Huawei and ZTE will make key 4G wins outside Asia, to the detriment of established players.

7. 4G users will spend twice as much time on the mobile Web as their non-4G counterparts. Companies that invest in mobile Web sites and free or near-free rich media content will benefit most.

8. Mobile video will not drive consumers to 4G. Mobile video won’t be the killer 4G app everyone expects; instead, consumers will spend more time with music services like Pandora and Slacker.

9. The Web will not save operators in the mobile apps market. Operators think 4G will give them a leg up in mobile apps, but Apple and Google will still lead the market in 2011.

10. MVNO hype will build, but most of it will lead to nothing. 4G MVNOs will fail for the same reason most 2G and 3G MVNOs failed: Most won’t complement their hosts’ businesses.

11. Pricing will end in tiers. 4G will herald the introduction of tiered mobile data pricing models, and flat-rate pricing will be gone forever.

12. Carrier VoIP will still be AWOL, despite 4G. 4G’s speed and bandwidth are multimedia must-haves but not big voice necessities. Few operators will launch services before 2013, allowing over-the-top companies to gain an early lead.

13. Google will take the wheel in mobile data. Currently behind Apple and others in the mobile space, Google will quickly grab the mobile lead as 4G rolls out.

http://blogs.yankeegroup.com/2010/12/07/webinar-yankee-groups-2011-predictions/

Infonetics Research (http://twitter.com/infonetics) released its 3Q10 report on  2G/3G Mobile Infrastructure and Subscribers market share and forecast.

MOBILE INFRASTRUCTURE MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

. The worldwide 2G and 3G mobile infrastructure market grew 2% in 3Q10, to $8.8 billion

. The overall market is still down year-over-year (-20.7% from 3Q09), when the market was inflated by massive 3G rollouts in China

. All major segments of the market posted sequential gains, including radio access network (RAN), mobile switching subsystem (MSS), mobile packet core, and home location register (HLR) equipment

. Since its peak of $42.5 billion in 2008, annual spending on just RAN equipment — base transceiver stations (BTS), base station controllers (BSC), and remote radio heads (RRH) — is dropping almost $10 billion, to an expected $33.4 billion in 2010

. The GSM RAN equipment market bounced back in 3Q10, up 12.5% sequentially, led by major 2G capacity upgrades in China and India

. Ericsson remains the King of the Radio, with double the revenue market share of its nearest competitor, Nokia Siemens, for worldwide macrocell RAN equipment

. In the mobile packet core equipment segment — in which Ericsson is also #1 — just 3 quarters ago the spread between #2 Nokia Siemens and #3 Cisco was about 13.5 percentage points; in 3Q10 the distance between them is only 2 percentage points

. The number of mobile subscribers passed the 5 billion bar in 2010 and is on track to hit 6 billion between 2012 and 2013

-With the worldwide population now at 6.9 billion, it is very likely that mobile penetration will exceed the global population in the near future

Infonetics Analyst Comment:

“As we anticipated more than a year ago, in the third quarter of 2010 the mobile infrastructure market was marked by the start of 2G capacity upgrades and modernization projects, sustained but slowing 3G activity in North America, and the start of 3G rollouts in India. Despite the misleading ‘4G’ pandemonium in the US, 2G is back in full force and will keep the planet busy for the next few years as global mobile penetration reaches 100%,” predicts Stéphane Téral, Infonetics Research’s principal analyst for mobile and FMC infrastructure.

More info at:  www.infonetics.com