CCS Insight: Europe will fall behind China & U.S. in 5G
Researchers at CCS Insight have released a report predicting that Europe will fall behind in the rollout of “5G.” The market research firm predicts the U.S. and China will lead the way in deploying the next generation of mobile technology known as “5G.” Initial commercial deployments in the U.S. are expected this year, but China is set to overtake in connection volume by 2020.
CCS Insight’s forecast of an initial U.S. lead corroborates with a report from the GSMA at the end of March 2018 — but the firms appear to disagree in the rest of their rankings in the period leading to 2025.
In the GSMA’s report, China falls to fourth place — behind Europe — by 2025 with 25 percent of mobile connections being 5G. Europe fares slightly better with 31 percent, Japan with 45 percent, and the United States leading with 49 percent.
This author believes China will be #1 in “5G” deployment, even if the network operators there use a pre-standard RAN/RIT for mobile access.
Kester Mann, Principal Analyst covering operators at CCS Insight, said in the firm’s report:
“The industry might be struggling to establish the business models for investment in 5G, but this isn’t stopping leading operators battling for bragging rights to launch the first networks. Competitive forces and the need for capacity are the leading drivers of early deployment, although we caution this could set unrealistic expectations for initial network capability.”
The chart below provides a summary of CCS Insight’s 5G forecast up to 2025:
As per the above chart, CCS predicts adoption of 5G will not really start ramping up until 2021, which is what we’ve been saying for MANY YEARS!
“The industry might be struggling to establish the business models for investment in 5G, but this isn’t stopping leading operators battling for bragging rights to launch the first networks,” said Kester Mann of CCS Insight. “Competitive forces and the need for capacity are the leading drivers of early deployment, although we caution this could set unrealistic expectations for initial network capability.”
CCS forecasts that while the early launches might be in the US, Korea and Japan, China should storm to the front of the 5G pack. Estimates predict 5G in the country would hit 100 million connections in 2021 before passing 1 billion in 2025. Despite most other markets having launched commercial services by 2025, China will still account for nearly four in every 10 global 5G connections.
“We see the first 5G smartphones emerging in 2019, but these will be relatively few in number,” comments Marina Koytcheva, VP of Forecasting at CCS Insights. “The real ramp-up will come in 2021 when over 350 million 5G handsets will be sold worldwide.”
The bulk of adoption is not expected to be driven by innovative new technologies such as autonomous vehicles and remote healthcare, but rather by the need for higher speeds and bandwidth to support mobile video consumption. Even in 2025, mobile broadband is still predicted to represent 98 percent of all 5G connections.
5 thoughts on “CCS Insight: Europe will fall behind China & U.S. in 5G”
Related blog post by CCS Insight- Mobile Industry Eyes 5G Devices in Early 2019
Despite all the 5G optimism, it’s a delicate time for the new generation of networks. Expectations are high and claims of “foremost”, “first” and “fastest” are abundant. But these assertions fail to convey the challenging economics, and business case for 5G (a subject for another time). Until infrastructure and modems are functioning in real-world scenarios, it’s all too easy to make bold claims.
There’s a lot of hype surrounding 5G, and the technology has beaten expectations with its pace of development. However, what’s important now is that the industry collectively address real-world testing, uses and the associated performance and benefits. As we get closer to handsets running on 5G networks in 2019, let’s focus on actual performance rather than spurious theoretical claims and empty assertions of “5G firsts”.
Shift To 5G Will Not Happen In 2018, Says GlobalData:
While many telecom network technology vendors are claiming that the wait for fifth generation, high-speed wireless service (5G) is finally over, the full transition to 5G will not happen in 2018, according to data and analytics company GlobalData.
Ed Gubbins, senior telecom technology and software analyst at GlobalData said, “There are differing perspectives over whether 5G is finally here. For vendors selling 5G gear, basically it is. For consumers, depending on where in the world they live, it’s coming soon. But for operators – in the sense that really matters to them, namely new revenue and profit – the wait will continue.”
According to Gubbins, some mobile operators and vendors have been using the term ‘5G’ to label residential broadband services delivered over fixed, point-to-point wireless networks to users’ homes, typically handed off to wi-fi within the home.
“Verizon, which was early to trial this technology – based on high-frequency millimeter-wave spectrum – has been particularly vocal about promoting this as ‘5G,’ since it allows it to claim it’s providing 5G service earlier than its competitors. Likewise, suppliers of the wireless networking gear for these rollouts are keen to call it 5G. However, today’s 4G LTE subscribers will generally think of true 5G not as a fixed, but as a mobile service.”
The real defining promise of 5G is to allow operators to connect both people and machines with a common network, thereby attaining greater efficiency and profitability than any previous generation. That depends on the development of new business cases and new market adoption that the mobile industry has not seen before and does not well understand.
“Smartphones that support 5G are not expected until 2019. Though some operators, such as AT&T, have promised to roll out 5G service sooner, it can only be delivered to less popular devices like mobile hotspot ‘pucks’ and ‘dongles’ – mere preludes to the mass market,” Gubbins said.
Early 5G services are expected to launch in the US, Korea, Japan and China, primarily due to a mix of consumer demand, competitive pressure and 4G network maturity in those markets. Once this happens and 5G devices spread, then 5G can be said to finally be here, Global Data argues.
China to capture 40% of 5G subs by 2025:
China is expected to dominate the 5G market by 2025, accounting for 40% of all subscriptions, according to CCS Insight.
South Korea, Japan and the US are expected to be first out of the blocks with 5G, with launches planned on a limited scale as early as late 2018. But China will quickly take over, achieving 100 million connections in 2021 and over 1 billion in 2025, the research firm forecasts.
Globally, 5G subscriptions are on track to reach 280 million in 2021 and grow to 2.7 billion in 2025, with most markets having deployed 5G by this time.
CCS Insight has meanwhile raised its estimates for total 5G connections in 2020 by more than 50% from its previous forecast in October to nearly 60 million. Its projection for 2021 has also been increased by 25%.
“The industry might be struggling to establish the business models for investment in 5G, but this isn’t stopping leading operators battling for bragging rights to launch the first networks,” CCS Insight principal analyst for operators Kester Mann said.
“Competitive forces and the need for capacity are the leading drivers of early deployment, although we caution this could set unrealistic expectations for initial network capability.”
Meanwhile the first 5G smartphones are expected to emerge in 2019, but there will be relatively few by this time, the company said. The real ramp up is expected in 2021, by which time over 350 million 5G handsets will be sold worldwide.
5G will have no applications for European consumers over next 5 years – Freenet CEOThe 5G mobile standard is unlikely to have any importance for end customers in Europe for the foreseeable future, Freenet CEO Christoph Vilanek told German business publication Capital. Vilanek told Capital he doesn’t expect 5G to have any applications for end users over the next five years: people do not need 5G to make phone calls, while applications like video streaming are already possible with 3G and 4G.
Instead, the new mobile frequency standard will “essentially” be of importance for industrial applications thanks to the faster response times it offers for transmitting data, said Vilanek. Vilanek also warned that building up 5G networks will be “infinitely expensive” and cautioned that no one knows how these costs should be refinanced.
EE launches commercial 5G service in UK
U.K. wireless network operator EE has officially launched commercial 5G services in a number of U.K. cities, the telco said in a release.
The carrier said that 5G services are initially available in London, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Belfast, Birmingham and Manchester.
EE will also be introducing 5G across the busiest parts of Bristol, Coventry, Glasgow, Hull, Leeds, Leicester, Liverpool, Newcastle, Nottingham and Sheffield during the rest of the year. In 2020, Aberdeen, Bournemouth, Brighton, Cambridge, Dundee, Exeter, Ipswich, Norwich, Plymouth and York will receive 5G coverage, EE said.
The telco said that consumers and businesses can order 5G devices, including smartphones from Samsung, OnePlus, LG, and Oppo, a mobile broadband device from HTC, and a 5G home broadband router from Huawei.
The operator also said it expects customers to experience an increase in speeds of around 100-150Mbps even in the busiest areas.
EE said that the commercial launch is the first phase of the telco’s 5G rollout: a Non-standalone 5G New Radio deployment focused on using the combined power of 4G and 5G technologies. Phase 2, from 2022, will introduce the full 5G core network, enhanced device chipset capabilities, and increased availability of 5G-ready spectrum.
EE said that higher bandwidth and lower latency, coupled with expansive and growing 5G coverage, will enable a more responsive network, enabling immersive mobile augmented reality, real-time health monitoring, and mobile cloud gaming.
A third phase, beginning in 2023, will introduce Ultra-Reliable Low Latency Communications (URLLC), network slicing and multi-gigabit-per-second speeds. This phase of 5G will enable critical applications like real-time traffic management of fleets of autonomous vehicles and massive sensor networks.
Rival telco Vodafone recently announced that it will commercially launch its 5G network in seven cities across the U.K. on July 3.
The telco said that the new technology will be commercially available for both consumers and business customers.
Vodafone also said that it will also offer 5G roaming in the U.K., Germany, Italy and Spain over the summer. Initial 5G services will be available in Birmingham, Bristol, Cardiff, Glasgow, Manchester, Liverpool and London, while Birkenhead, Blackpool, Bournemouth, Guildford, Newbury, Portsmouth, Plymouth, Reading, Southampton, Stoke-on-Trent, Warrington and Wolverhampton will follow later this year.
Last year, U.K. telcos obtained spectrum for the future provision of 5G services. BT-owned EE won 40 megahertz for which it paid £303 million ($395 million). Three secured 20 megahertz of 3.4 GHz spectrum at a cost of £151.3 million. Vodafone won 50 megahertz of spectrum in the 3.4GHz frequency band after paying £378 million, while Telefónica-owned O2 picked up 40 megahertz for £318m.
Comments are closed.