ABI Research: 5G rollouts to propel cellular RAN market to $26B in 2023
The global RAN base station equipment market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% to exceed $26 billion in 2023, ABI research forecast in a new report.
“Today the RAN equipment market is undergoing multiple technology transitions as network operators move to densify macro networks with small cells, tackle in-building wireless and evolve to new technologies such as 5G, LAA (Licensed Assisted Access), unlicensed and shared spectrum technologies such as OnGo in the United States, and MulteFire,” said Nick Marshall, Research Director at ABI Research.
“These transitions are occurring against a backdrop of continuous technology evolution as networks upgrade to include MIMO (Multiple Input Multiple Output), Massive MIMO, 256 QAM, and carrier aggregation,” continued Marshall.
Global spending on indoor equipment which represents 27% of this market today will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 15.5% to represent a value of 42% of the total by 2023, the ABI Research report, Indoor, Outdoor, and IoT Network Infrastructure states.
The Asia Pacific region, which includes some of the largest and growing RAN markets in the world, is expected to continue to dominate the market with a share of 58% of global sales. North America and Europe will rank a distant second and third respectively.
Sale of infrastructure equipment in the North American and Asia Pacific regions will continue to be dominated by replacement and upgrades to LTE with the addition of 5G equipment gaining share starting in 2019, the report states.
“While the overall market is healthy, the underlying technology transitions are complex and only those vendors that can leverage them stand to benefit – these vendors include Ericsson, Huawei, Nokia, Samsung, and ZTE,” Marshall concluded.
Not only the traditional vendors will benefit as various “5G” technologies mature. Many specialist vendors are ready to compete for “5G” market share. These vendors include small cell specialists Acceleran, Airspan, Airvana/CommScope, Comba, Contela, ip. access, Parallel Wireless, Ruckus/Arris, and SpiderCloud Wireless/Corning.
This report is part of the company’s 5G & Mobile Network Infrastructure research service, which includes research, data, and Executive Foresights.
About ABI Research
ABI Research provides strategic guidance for visionaries needing market foresight on the most compelling transformative technologies, which reshape workforces, identify holes in a market, create new business models and drive new revenue streams. ABI’s own research visionaries take stances early on those technologies, publishing groundbreaking studies often years ahead of other technology advisory firms. ABI analysts deliver their conclusions and recommendations in easily and quickly absorbed formats to ensure proper context. Our analysts strategically guide visionaries to take action now and inspire their business to realize a bigger picture. For more information about ABI Research’s forecasting, consulting and teardown services, visionaries can contact us at +1.516.624.2500 in the Americas, +44.203.326.0140 in Europe, +65.6592.0290 in Asia-Pacific or visitwww.abiresearch.com.
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Operators are expected to invest over $200 billion in capex on their 5G networks between 2018 and the end of 2023, and much more beyond that. Developed markets such as the USA and South Korea are taking the early lead regarding 5G rollout and service launch, but it will be China that comes to dominate capital expenditure within five years.
Heavy Reading’s latest report, Mobile Operator 5G Capex Forecasts: 2018-2023, seeks to provide insight into how much might be spent, and where and when. It provides estimates and forecasts 5G capex by mobile operators (including investments made by those mobile operators in the fixed transport infrastructure to serve those networks), as well as breakdowns of investment by region, and by network segment (RAN, transport, core and civils). The estimates are underpinned by forecasts for 5G subscribers and 5G macro and microcell sites.
— Simon Sherrington, Contributing Analyst, Heavy Reading
Survey: Awareness, expectations for 5G are high
5G comes in third in consumer awareness, just behind virtual reality and artificial intelligence, when ranked against other cutting-edge technologies, with 57% of consumers surveyed saying they’re aware of the innovation. HarrisX CEO and chief researcher Dritan Nesho noted that “expectations are high, with over 2 in 3 Americans believing 5G will become a reality by 2020, which will require significant investment by the public and private sector to get there.”
“Consumer sentiment around tech innovation and 5G in particular is widely positive, with big expectations for impact on job creation, business, various facets of people’s personal lives like healthcare management in the near future,” said Dritan Nesho, chief researcher and CEO of HarrisX, in a statement. “Expectations are high, with over two in three Americans believing 5G will become a reality by 2020, which will require significant investment by the public and private sector to get there.”
The inaugural survey, which T-Mobile plans to produce on a quarterly basis with HarrisX going forward, found that 57% of Americans are aware of 5G, and of those who are aware, 90% believe 5G will be better than 4G or LTE. Moreover, 64% of the survey respondents who are aware of 5G expect it to be “widely available” by 2020. Reliability, speed and wider coverage were all cited as the most appealing aspects of 5G among those surveyed.
Deloitte predicts that 5G will enter scale growth in 2019 . By the end of 2019 , it is estimated that 25 companies will launch 5G services; another 26 companies will launch 5G services in 2020 ; by the end of 2020 , 5G mobile phone sales (15-20 million ) will account for all 1% of smart phone sales , by 2021 , sales will start to rise, then 5G mobile phone sales will exceed 100 million.
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