Business Research Company: Double Digit Growth Forecast for China’s Telecom Market
Overview:
China’s telecom market grew from $289.6 billion in 2014 to $418.8 billion in 2018 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.7%. The market is expected to grow from $418.8 billion in 2018 to $649.3 billion in 2022 at a CAGR of 11.6% according to The Business Research Company (TBRC’s) Global Market Model.
[Switzerland is expected to be the fastest growing country within the telecom market at a CAGR of 16.5% followed by Denmark at 14.5% and Iraq at 13.2% respectively.]
China was the second largest country in the global telecom market. It was worth $418.8 billion in 2018, accounting for 15.6% of the global telecom market, followed by Japan at 8.3% and India at 3 % respectively. China’s telecom market accounts for 42.5 % of the Asia Pacific’s telecom market in 2018.
Major telecom companies in China include: China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom, China Netcom, Companhia de Telecomunicações de Macau (Macau was previously a Portuguese colony now owned by China), and UTStarcom.
Editor’s Note: The first three companies listed (China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom) are all state owned and are by far the largest telecom companies in China. We have no idea why neither Huawei or ZTE are listed as major telecom infrastructure companies like UTStarcom.
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Market Definition:
The telecoms market consists of sales of telecommunications goods and services by entities (organizations, sole traders and partnerships) that apply communication hardware equipment and software for the transmission and switching of voice, data, text and video. This market includes segments such as wired telecommunications carriers, wireless telecommunications carriers and communications hardware. The telecoms market also includes sales of goods such as GPS equipment, cellular telephones, switching equipment.
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Discussion:
The satellite and telecommunication resellers was the fastest growing segment within China’s telecom market at a CAGR of 14.6% followed by wired telecommunication carriers at 11.2% and wireless telecommunication carriers at 10.4% from 2014 to 2018. The satellite and telecommunication resellers is expected to be the fastest growing segment during the forecast period from 2018 to 2022 at a CAGR of 16.2% followed by wired telecommunication carriers at 12.8% and wireless telecommunication carriers at 11.9%.
The telecom market is segmented in to wireless telecommunication carriers, wired telecommunication carriers, communications hardware, and satellite and telecommunication resellers. The wireless telecommunication carriers market mainly consists of sub segments such as cellular/mobile telephone services, and wireless internet services. the wired telecommunication carriers market consists of sub segments such as broadband internet services, fixed telephony services, and direct-to-home(DTH) services. The communications hardware market includes sub segments such as general communication equipment, broadcast communications equipment, and telecom infrastructure equipment. The satellite and telecommunication resellers market has satellite telecommunications, telecommunication resellers, and others – satellite and telecommunication resellers as its sub segments.
China’s Telecom Accounts For More Than 3% Of The Country’s GDP in 2018:
The table below shows telecom market size as a proportion of China’s GDP during 2014 – 2022.
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 HCAGR FCAGR Percentage of GDP 2.74% 2.96% 3.00% 3.04% 3.08% 3.13% 3.18% 3.23% 3.28% 2.98% 1.58%
China’s telecom market grew at a CAGR of 9.7% from 2014 to 2018, while China’s GDP grew at a CAGR of 6.49% during the same period. China’s telecom percentage share in China’s GDP increased from 2.74% to 3.08% during the same period. China’s telecom share of China’s GDP is expected to reach to 3.28% in 2022.
China’s Per Capita Expenditure On Telecom Was Less Than That Of Global Expenditure In 2018
The table below shows China’s per capita expenditure on telecom during 2014 – 2022.
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 HCAGR FCAGR Per capita Expenditure ($) 211.73 241.26 248.03 271.63 301.28 334.74 373.84 415.20 461.29 9.22% 11.24%
China’s telecom market grew at a CAGR of 9.7% from 2014 to 2018, while China’s population grew at a CAGR of 0.41% during the same period. China’s per capita expenditure on telecom increased from $211.73 to $301.28 from 2014 to 2018 and expected to reach to $461.29 in 2022.
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Major Trends Shaping The Telecom Market Include:
1. Over-The-Top Services Are Becoming Popular
OTT services are becoming popular as this technology enables customers to access audio and video content through internet. Over-the-Top (OTT) services refers to accessing film or TV content via Internet without subscribing to cable or paytv services. It delivers messaging, voice and video content directly to the consumers over the internet.
2. Investments In Cyber Security
Telecommunication providers are investing in cyber security solutions to protect telecom infrastructure and datafrom cyberattacks. Cybersecurity refers to the set of techniques used to protect the network integrity and data from unauthorized access. Telecom operators are investing more into cybersecurity solutions to manage cyber security. For Instance, leading telecommunication companies like Telefonica, Softbank, Etisalat and SingTel have signed an agreement to create the first global cyber security partnership
3. Software Defined Wide Area Networking
Software defined wide area networking (SD-WAN) application is widely used in enterprise networking to reduce the network traffic. Software defined wide area networking (SD-WAN) is a specific application of software-defined networking (SDN) technology applied in WAN connections which connects enterprise networks over large distances. It improves connectivity and security in a cloud environment due to its scalability across numerous locations. It also provides encrypted data across the connectivity points, firewalls and application-based security.i For Instance, some of the major companies providing this technology include Silver Peak, Cisco, VMware, Riverbed and Citrix.
4. Green Wireless Network
A rapid increase in energy consumption in wireless networks has been recognized as a major threat for environmental protection and sustainable development. Due to access to the high-speed internet provided by the next generation wireless networks and increased smartphone usage, the requirement for global access to data has risen sharply, triggering a dramatic expansion of network infrastructures and escalating energy demand. To meet these challenges green evolution has become an urgent priority for wireless network service providers.
5. Voice over IP (VoIP) services:
VoIP is the transmission of voice and multimedia content over Internet Protocol (IP) networks. VoIP services are becoming popular as the audio quality is superior than traditional wired networks. With more networks investing to upgrade to 5G, there has been a substantial improvement in the quality of VoIP. 5G will eliminate common troubleshooting issues like call jitter, echoes and packet loss. AI is also beginning to be an integral part of system restoration. With the latest advancements in AI, identifying and adjusting poor quality calls even before answering them has become much easier. AI helps in restoring call quality quickly and efficiently without the need for human intervention.
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IDC on China’s Telecom Market:
In 2018, the capital expenditure of China’s three major operators (China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom) was US$4.34 billion and China was the second-largest operator expenditure market. In addition, in 2018, Chinese mobile subscribers reached 1.57 billion, which is the largest single mobile communication market in the world. On June 6, 2019, China formally issued 5G licenses, and the construction of 5G will accelerate.
With the business transformation and network transformation of operators, the impact of telecommunications industry on traditional infrastructure is also growing. SDN/NFV, cloud, and edge computing are becoming the new mainstream technology, and the operator market has great potential for IT vendors.
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The Business Research Company’s reports are based on the methodology below:
Our data sets are created using a wide range of proprietary and public sources including leading government bodies, associations, trade journals, market intelligence reports and trade magazines. Data is modeled based on hard data, extrapolation, regression analysis based on known macro data inputs, interpolation between hard figures, comparisons with other geographies and markets, price estimations, and qualitative inputs. Data is triangulated within our unique market data model covering an exhaustive list of 600+ markets across 48 countries and 7 regions. Comparable data is used for sanity check and trend analysis. For example, our global market value data is compared to unit sales and price data for the relevant market as well as relevant macro-economic data sets in order to establish validity.
Market value is defined as the revenues earned by organizations for products and services within the specified market. The break down by geography is revenue generated within the specific industry by organizations in the specified geography, irrespective of where they are produced.
Market value and forecasts used in market share calculation and potential gain of the company is sourced from TBRC’s Global Market Model (more below).
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The Global Market Model is a comprehensive database of integrated market information which covers historic, current and forecast market information. This database helps in drawing multiple conclusions, exploring market opportunities and taking effective business decisions.
Global Market Model’s methodology ensures that the data is of the highest quality. It starts with high standard data sources and correlation based modelling techniques. This is supported by TBRC’s market expertise and thousands of expert interviews conducted each year to verify the data.
The data sets on the global market model are created using a wide range of proprietary and public sources including leading government bodies, associations, trade journals, market intelligence reports and trade magazines. Data is modeled based on hard data, extrapolation, regression analysis based on known macro data inputs, interpolation between hard figures, comparisons with other geographies and markets, price estimations, and qualitative inputs. Data is triangulated within our unique market data model covering an exhaustive list of 600+ markets across 48 countries and 7 regions. Comparable data is used for sanity check and trend analysis. For example, our global market value data is compared to unit sales and price data for the relevant market as well as relevant macro-economic datasets in order to establish validity.
Analysis is drawn from our Consultants’ wide range of industry and research experience as well as public and proprietary sources. Consultants are trained in research techniques and ethics by the Market Research Society.
Every year The Business Research Company carries out thousands of interviews with senior executives and industry experts across hundreds of markets. Through these interviews we develop our internal understanding of markets and geographies and cross reference our understanding of global markets with expert feedback utilizing ‘Delphic’ research methodologies.
The Business Research Company prides itself on the quality and validity of its data and analysis. Our unique ‘end noted’ referencing approach allows the user to trace our market numbers and analysis back to the specific data sources they were derived from.
Note: All currency conversions are done on the basis of 2018 exchange rates.
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References:
TBRC Business Research Pvt Ltd-Document BRCOMM0020200213eg2d0000f
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telecommunications_industry_in_China
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March 15, 2020:
Beijing has put 26,000 5G base stations into operation, with 5G users reaching about 800,000, according to the Beijing Municipal Communications Administration.
Beijing municipal government rolled out policies in the past year to support the telecom industry by slashing the expenses in carrying out 5G infrastructure construction, said the administration in a statement.
According to a report compiled by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, the 5G commercialization in China is expected to generate a direct gross output of 10.6 trillion yuan (about 1.51 trillion U.S. dollars) from 2020 to 2025, plus an indirect gross output of about 24.8 trillion yuan.
Given the complexity of the current epidemic control and the economic development, it is an important and pressing task to expedite the development of 5G technology, said Chen Zhaoxiong, vice minister of Industry and Information Technology, recently.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-03/15/c_138880135.htm
China is going all out on 5G construction
The headline may not be new, but the numbers are.
The big three telcos are ready to sink around 180 billion yuan ($25.5 billion) into their 5G rollouts in 2020. That’s more than four times the 2019 level.
It’s not clear whether this is something long planned, or whether it flows from the party leadership directive to double down on 5G and boost the virus-stricken economy. (See China 5G: Unicom and Telecom speed up rollout.)
However, analysts have complained that the aggregate rise in capex was short of expectations, suggesting that operators have shifted some spend from other items to 5G.
Additionally, China Tower expects to tip RMB17 billion ($2.4 billion) into 5G this year, taking the total close to RMB200 billion ($28.2 billion).
It’s not always easy being government-owned
Being state-owned in a socialist economy isn’t always a doddle.
Sure, the regulator has your back, and you don’t have to squander your hard-earned cash in a frivolous spectrum auction, but every now and then the public interest rears its ugly head.
Specifically, the MIIT has been bearing down on operators over the past five years, demanding “faster speeds and lower prices.” The result is a series of price cuts, in particular in mobile.
In the first year of the scheme, China Mobile cut mobile tariffs by 43%. Its average revenue per user since then has fallen from RMB59 ($8.30) to RMB49 ($6.90). China Unicom’s has shrunk from RMB47.80 ($6.75) to RMB40.10 ($5.65).
No wonder they struggle to get any revenue growth in their core business.
Telco leaders need to get their story straight about subs losses
The plunge in total subscriber numbers over the first two months of the year has attracted a lot of attention both inside and outside China. (See China’s mobile subs base shrinks by 20M.)
Following a tepid January, the three operators lost 19.4 million customers between them last month, with the smallest player, Unicom, taking the biggest hit.
One of the more lurid explanations is that the disappearance of millions of subscribers reflects an unreported mass death toll from COVID-19. China’s numbers are dodgy but not that dodgy.
Problem is, industry bosses themselves aren’t sure what to make of it.
China Unicom boss Wang Xiaochu blames it on customers dumping dual SIMs. For years, a lot of people have carried a second or third SIM to avoid roaming and long-distance charges. But those charges are disappearing because of changing price structures. Plus, people have been staying at home and connecting over Wi-Fi for the past two months.
China Telecom vice president Wang Guoquan says it’s because of the closure of retail stores during the outbreak, while China Mobile CEO Yang Jie also pins it on the coronavirus without elaborating how.
The epidemic is no doubt the biggest factor – the January number is weak because the virus wiped out the traditional Chinese New Year shopping blitz. The collapse in February, while much of the country was in lockdown, appears a direct result of the contagion.
However, analysts also point to the introduction of even tighter ID authentication rules in December, causing customers to abandon or decide not to renew their services.
Network sharing is in
The Telecom-Unicom network-sharing experiment appears to be an unqualified success. It has saved RMB10 billion ($1.4 billion) on rollout costs since last September, according to Unicom figures.
Combined, it will give the partners scale to go head to head with China Mobile, which expects to have 300,000 basestations in operation by year end. The two smaller operators are targeting 250,000 by the end of the third quarter.
But it may also pave the way to a partnership between China Mobile and the underfunded new licensee, China Broadcast Network (CBN). (See China’s Newest Operator Now Has 2 Suitors.)
China Mobile’s Yang Jie confirmed last week he’s had discussions with CBN management on a sharing arrangement.
There’s some pressure from above to get a deal done. But any agreement struck would certainly look different from the Telecom-Unicom partnership, which is basically one of equals.
https://www.lightreading.com/asia/the-mysterious-case-of-the-vanishing-chinese-customers/d/d-id/758516?
Enterprise, not 5G, powers China Mobile, Unicom earnings growth
China Mobile now claims 331 million “5G package” customers – that is, customers that have signed up for a 5G plan. Of these, just 160 million are using the new network with a 5G device. That’s still an enormous number itself and includes the 33 million added in Q3 alone – more than South Korea’s entire 5G customer base.
But while China Mobile might be sweating the LTE network by selling bigger data bundles to 4G users, it is carrying 171 million ‘5G’ customers on its 4G legacy network, which means it is missing out on the efficiency and capacity gains of 5G. That is especially concerning when mobile ARPU is down. Mobile’s ARPU slipped 4.0% from Q2 to Q3 – not where you want to go when you’re piling on 5G subs and when mobile data usage per handset has climbed by a third.
Rather than 5G, enterprise was the biggest source of growth for both China Mobile and China Unicom.
China Mobile’s Q3 cloud and industrial internet revenue soared 46% to 49 billion yuan, or nearly a quarter of total revenue. The company said it had “seized the development opportunities” provided by accelerated digital transformation.
China Unicom’s Q3 industry internet revenue increased 29% to 12 billion yuan – around 15% of its total sales.
Looking ahead, China Unicom said it hoped to “fully unlock” the potential of digital transformation and its the mixed-ownership reform.
https://www.lightreading.com/asia/enterprise-not-5g-powers-china-mobile-unicom-earnings-growth/d/d-id/772976?