Quantum Computers and Qubits: IDTechEx report; Alice & Bob whitepaper & roadmap
Introduction:
In the last decade, the number of companies actively developing quantum computer hardware has quadrupled. Between 2022 and 2024 multiple funding rounds surpassing US$100 million have been closed, and the transition from lab-based toys to commercial product has begun. Competition is building in the quantum computing market, not only between different companies but between quantum computing technologies. The focus today has intensified on the need for logical or error-corrected qubits [1.]. The challenge ahead is to scale up hardware and increase qubit number while reducing errors as well as infrastructure demand. Leaders today have between 1 and 50 logical qubits, thousands are likely needed to provide a meaningful advantage over classical computing alternatives.
Note 1. Quantum computing is based on the use of qubits – the quantum equivalent to classical bits – the architectures available to create them vary substantially. Many are now familiar with IBM and their superconducting qubits – housed inside large cryostats and cooled to temperatures colder than deep space. Indeed, in 2023 superconducting quantum computers broke the 1000 qubit milestone – with smaller systems made accessible via the cloud for companies to trial out their problems.
However, many agree that the highest value problems – such as drug discovery – need many more qubits, perhaps millions more. As such, alternatives to the superconducting design, many proposing more inherent scalability, have received investment. There are now more than eight technology approaches meaningfully competing to reach the million-qubit milestone.
The quantum computing hardware market today has the unique property of seeing rapid growth in revenue generation despite remaining at a low technology readiness level. National laboratories and supercomputing centers are already investing in the installation of early-stage machines on premises, primarily for research but also to allow more local users the ability to ‘pay to play’. This is, in part, a result of the intensifying governmental stake in the technology – and its potential to provide significant economic and national security advantages in conjunction with quantum sensing and quantum communications. As a result, while multiple technical challenges remain, it appears that the race to commercial advantage could well be paved with gold for some. However, towards the end of the decade, as pressure mounts to deliver commercial value and return on investment – some of those leading the charge today may not necessarily prove to be the true winners in the long term.
With so many competing quantum computing technologies across a fragmented landscape, determining which approaches are likely to dominate is essential in identifying opportunities within this exciting industry. IDTechEx uses an in-house framework for quantum commercial readiness level to measure how quantum computer hardware is progressing in comparison with its classical predecessor. Furthermore, as the initial hype around quantum computing begins to cool investors will increasingly demand demonstration of practical benefits, such as quantum supremacy for commercially relevant algorithms. As such, hardware developers need to show not only the quality and quantity of qubits but the entire initialization, manipulation, and readout systems. Improving manufacturing scalability and reducing cooling requirements are also important, which will create opportunities for methodology agnostic providers of infrastructure such as speciality materials and cooling systems. By evaluating both the sector and competing quantum computing technologies, this report provides insight into the opportunities provided by this potentially transformative technology.
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Alice & Bob, a leading innovator in fault-tolerant quantum computing, just released their whitepaper and technology roadmap titled, “Think Inside the Box: Quantum Computing with Cat Qubits.”
Key highlights of the whitepaper:
- Exponential Error Reduction: Cat qubits simplify error correction by reducing it from a 2D to a 1D problem, achieving unmatched fidelity (99.999999%) and reducing hardware requirements by up to 200x compared to traditional approaches.
- Roadmap Milestones: Alice & Bob’s plan moves from mastering single qubits to developing commercially viable quantum computers by 2030, with transformative applications across industries such as finance, healthcare, and cybersecurity.
- Quantum Advantage: Their technology positions them to deliver practical solutions to computational problems that are currently beyond the reach of classical computing.
Image Credit: Alice & Bob
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The roadmap details five key milestones in Alice & Bob’s plan to deliver a universal, fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2030:
- Milestone 1: Master the Cat Qubit Achieved in 2024 with the Boson chip series, this milestone established a reliable, reproducible cat qubit capable of storing quantum information while resisting bit-flip errors. Milestone 2: Build a Logical Qubit Currently under development with the Helium chip series, this stage focuses on creating the company’s first error-corrected logical qubit operating below the error-correction threshold.
- Milestone 3: Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computing With the upcoming Lithium chip series, Alice & Bob aims to scale multi-logical-qubit systems and demonstrate the first error-corrected logical gate.
- Milestone 4: Universal Quantum Computing The Beryllium chip series will enable a universal set of logical gates enabled by magic state factories and live error correction, unlocking the ability to run any quantum algorithm.
- Milestone 5: Useful Quantum Computing The Graphene chip series, featuring 100 high-fidelity logical qubits, will deliver a quantum computer capable of demonstrating quantum advantage in early industrial use cases by 2030, integrating into existing high-performance computing (HPC) facilities.
“Our roadmap lays out a clear path to solving quantum’s toughest engineering challenges,” said Raphael Lescanne, CTO and Co-Founder of Alice & Bob. “Quantum computing can seem opaque, but it shouldn’t be. This white paper makes our technology and roadmap accessible for engineers, business leaders and tech enthusiasts alike.”
Achieving practical quantum advantage requires overcoming the errors inherent in quantum systems. Quantum error correction typically relies on additional qubits to detect and correct these errors, but the resource requirements grow quadratically with complexity, making large-scale, useful quantum computing a significant challenge.
Alice & Bob’s cat qubits offer a promising solution to this bottleneck. These superconducting chips feature an active stabilization mechanism that effectively shields the qubits from some external errors. This unique approach has enabled cat qubits to set the world record for bit-flip protection, one of the two major types of errors in quantum computing, effectively eliminating them.
This protection reduces error correction from a 2D problem to a simpler, 1D problem, enabling error correction to scale more efficiently. As a result, Alice & Bob can produce high-quality logical qubits with 99.9999% fidelity, what they call a “6-nines” logical qubit, using a fraction of the resources required by other approaches.
“Quantum computing should be a tool for solving useful problems in science and industry. This white paper shows how Alice & Bob’s cat qubits can bring that vision to life in a practical way by the decade’s end,” said Théau Peronnin CEO and co-founder of Alice & Bob.
References:
https://alice-bob.com/products/solution-the-box/
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