Outlook and Analysis:

Operators worldwide are deploying Centralized (C)-RAN architectures to bring simplicity, agility, flexibility and efficiency to mobile networks. However, this is nowhere more apparent than in Asia Pacific, where China has overtaken Japan in C-RAN deployments.

In 2015, China Mobile and China Unicom finally managed to convince their government that C-RAN was the right way to go to achieve energy savings of about 60 percent and have a green footprint. The Chinese operators have aggressive 5G research and development initiatives that include C-RAN. China Mobile has deployed C-RAN in three cities and one province, which led to a rollout of 2,000 sites.

A few C-RAN deployments also happened in EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa) and Canada in 2015.

In 2016, IHS expects more C-RAN rollouts in China, along with a few in CALA (Caribbean and Latin America) and Europe, where operators will start to adopt C-RAN as a means to expand their existing footprints by connecting remote radio heads (RRHs) to BBUs of installed base transceiver stations (BTSs).

Worldwide C-RAN architecture revenue is forecast to top $12 billion in 2020—a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.8 percent from 2015 to 2020—primarily driven by RAN expansion in the West and the beginning of 5G rollouts in Japan and South Korea.

Key Points:

• Global centralized RAN (C-RAN) architecture equipment revenue reached $5 billion in 2015, a gain of 18 percent from $4.3 billion in 2014
• The market remains mainly driven by Asia Pacific—with China now in the driver’s seat thanks to China Mobile’s and China Unicom’s C-RAN deployments, followed by Japan with NTT DOCOMO’s “advanced C-RAN architecture” rollout
• The most expensive component in a C-RAN architecture, baseband units (BBUs) accounted for the bulk of C-RAN revenue in 2015
• Nokia Networks once again led the C-RAN market in 2015, and Ericsson remained in second place—but Huawei gained 4 percentage points year-over-year to move into third place, displacing Samsung

C-RAN Report Synopsis:

The IHS Technology C-RAN Architecture Equipment Annual Market Report tracks centralized RAN equipment revenue and units, covering the migration from decomposed to C-RAN architectures including baseband units (BBUs) and remote radio heads (RRHs). The report provides worldwide and regional market size, vendor market share, forecasts through 2020, analysis and trends, and includes a C-RAN Deployment Tracker that shows C-RAN announcements and major developments by region, country, service provider and strategy. Vendors tracked include Alcatel-Lucent, Eblink, Ericsson, Fujitsu, Huawei, NEC, Nokia Networks, Samsung and ZTE.

To buy the IHS report in the Americas, call +1 844 301 7334 or [email protected]; in Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) at +44 1344 328 300 or[email protected]; or Asia-Pacific (APAC) at +604 291 3600 or [email protected].

Separately,  New GSMA Report Predicts Chinese IoT Market Will Exceed One Billion Connections by 2020 

 Underpinned by Licensed Low Power, Wide Area Market

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160628005096/en/GSMA-Report-Predicts-Chinese-IoT-Market-Exceed

1.  Verizon and KT to collaborate on 5G standard and technology: 

Verizon Communications (VZ) and Korea Telecom (KT) will collaborate on development of 5G wireless technology ahead of a planned 2018 demonstration of the proposed standard.

KT Chairman Hwang Chang-gyu  noted in a statement:  “Global partnership for the 5G standardization is very crucial ahead of its planned commercialization in 2020.”

Up till recently, it appeared VZ didn’t agree as the US carrier had announced 5G trials before ITU-R even defined what 5G is and the specs aren’t to be finalized till the end of 2020. VZ inked a partnership with Samsung to make their 5G trials real.

Carriers and manufacturers are making their 5G speed tests public, but until a global standard is established, it is difficult to gauge the accuracy of the 5G speed tests by the companies.

The 5G service is expected to roll out by 2020, but Korea Telecom aims to be ahead of the pack and deliver 5G capabilities by 2018 during the PyeongChang Winter Olympics. The deal between KT and Verizon means that the latter will pool its efforts to push out the next generation of wireless service, which should make sure KT checks its objective. Keep in mind that Verizon was the first carrier that introduced 4G LTE service in the United States and there is a high chance to repeat the feat with 5G.

Although 5G remains a debatable subject, a tight partnership of the two large global carriers can make sure that the technical infrastructure is ready quicker than expected.

KT Chairman Hwang Chang-gyu, right, poses with Verizon Chairman Lowell McAdam, after signing a partnership over developing core technologies used for fifth-generation (5G) networks, at Verizon headquarters in Basking Ridge, New Jersey, Friday. / Photo Courtesy of KT References: http://www.techtimes.com/articles/167186/20160627/verizon-partners-with-korea-telecom-to-develop-5g-standard-and-accelerate-deployment.htm http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/tech/2016/06/133_207907.html http://www.mtsfb.org.my/sites/default/files/MTSFB_REPORT_ITU-T_%20FG_IMT2020_Dr.Jeffrey.pdf 2. FCC Action Could Impede 5G Wireless Deployment Proposed rate regulation for business data services by the Federal Communications Commission could slow deployment of 5G wireless, said USTelecom President Walter McCormick. The commission is ignoring significant evidence of a rapidly growing and competitive marketplace, he said. “If winning the race to new 5G wireless is the goal, then incenting investment is key,” McCormick said. Forcing facilities-based providers that are investing in business data services to lease their networks at FCC-set discount prices to companies that are opting against investment will discourage deployment of the infrastructure America needs to support new 5G services. Read more at:  https://www.ustelecom.org/news/press-release/fcc-action-could-impede-5g-wireless-deployment

An AT&T executive offered an update on the carrier’s “smart city” program, in which the company is competing against other providers in the Internet of Things space.

 ‘Secure connectivity’ is the common thread in smart city technologies

Matt Foreman, lead product marketing manager for the smart cities business unit, discussed the differences between selling to governments and enterprises, noting that cities are especially wary of introducing new technologies that could prove risky or insecure.  Foreman said:

“AT&T is super excited about this space. Really, secure connectivity is the common thread woven through any smart city technology,” which can range from smart electric and water meters to connected garbage cans, street lights, irrigation systems and even acoustic leak detection.

“All of those are anchored on secure connectivity whether that be LTE, whether that be fiber,” or satellite, Foreman said. “We want to make sure we’re the connectivity provider of choice, taking our best in breed practices and capabilities to help cities solve problems for their citizens.”

He emphasized that, when dealing with government, derisking a deployment is key. “The technology that’s influencing and changing the direction of how cities can operate, interact with their citizens and create that compelling place to live is tried, true and proven. There’s a huge startup ecosystem that we want to solve for and bring into that fold, but at the same time we don’t want cities to think these are new technologies.”

Foreman also highlighted the differences between selling to government and selling to the enterprise. “”When you think about the enterprise side versus government, there’s different sales cycles and different procurement considerations. When you think about some of these account teams and relationships that are out there…AT&T is really well positioned to come in and help bubble up decision making and strategy out of the individual departments to a higher level so you get incremental, exponential value.”

More, including video clip, at: http://industrialiot5g.com/20160617/channels/news/att-smart-city-tag17

Separately, AT&T vowed to appeal a Federal court decision to uphold the FCC’s network neutrality rules

“We have always expected this issue to be decided by the Supreme Court, and we look forward to participating in that appeal,” AT&T Senior Executive Vice President and General Counsel David McAtee said in a statement.

The latest Ericsson Mobility Report covers the period to 2021. Ericsson has forecast significant growth in a wide range of factors. Some of the highlight figures include:

• Mobile broadband subscriptions: CAGR of 15%
• LTE subscriptions: CAGR of 25%
• Data traffic per smartphone: CAGR of 35%
• Total mobile data traffic: CAGR of 45%

Video to dominate mobile traffic growth:
Ericsson expects video to continue to play a large part in the data traffic growth mainly due to teenagers streaming video.. In 2015 video was some 40–55% of the total mobile data traffic depending on the device type and is forecast to have a CAGR of 55% to 2021. By 2021 Ericsson forecasts that video will account for some 70% of mobile data traffic. As the report notes: “Today’s teens… have no experience of a world without online video streaming.”

To meet such growth, LTE continues to provide fast speeds with current deployments providing up to 600Mbps (Cat 11), which will grow to 1Gbps LTE (Cat 16) with deployments in in 2016 according to Ericsson.

5G to start in 2020:
Looking beyond 4G and the massive growth, Ericsson forecasts that 5G services will commence in 2020 based on ITU IMT2020 standards, and that there will be 150 million 5G subscribers by 2021 led by rollouts in South Korea, Japan, China and the US.

IoT endpoints to overtake mobile phones:

In one of the most eye-catching predictions, Ericsson suggests that the number of IoT connected end points — such as cars, machines, smart meters and consumer tech — will overtake the number of mobile phones in 2018. IoT devices are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 23% over the period, and what is worth noting is the connectivity types including non-cellular IoT connectivity and the various low-power wide-area (LPWA) proprietary systems like SIGFOX, LoRa and Ingenu. Ericsson forecasts non-cellular IoT to be almost 10 times the cellular IoT by 2021.

VoLTE growth:
Voice over LTE (VoLTE) also features in the report. Ericsson forecasts that the 100 million VoLTE subscriptions at the end of 2015 will increase to 2.3 billion by 2021 — representing over 50% of all LTE subscriptions. In the US, Canada, South Korea and Japan this figure rises to over 80%.

The article on managing user experience describes how high traffic load in less than a tenth of the mobile radio cells in metropolitan areas can affect more than half of the user activity over the course of 24 hours.

In the last article, Ericcson discusses the need for global spectrum harmonization to secure early 5G deployments. 

Illustrations:

In analyzing the report, John Okas of Real Wireless wrote:

One of the key conclusions from the report is that managing the user experience is key for network operators and infrastructure providers – and all of the trends highlighted above are making that an increasingly complex challenge. As such, Data analytics are increasingly being applied to find the relationship between user experience and network performance statistics. Such an understanding is vital for operators to prioritise network investment as well as keep churn low. As the data from the report shows, operators face many calls on capex and opex as new technology combined with new use cases (and hopefully more spectrum), gives operators new opportunities and as well new challenges.

Of course, vendors put time and effort in to these reports to bring these challenges into sharp focus for the operators along with whatever solutions the vendor may have to offer. Real Wireless provides deep independent expertise in all of the areas and topics covered in such vendor reports including LTE, 5G and IoT. We’re involved in the business, technology, regulation and markets, working with all parts of the ecosystem including vendors, operators, regulators and end users. We help bring clarity and understanding to the challenges as well as the opportunities in the wireless world — without bias.

Sprint is working with Mobilitie LLC, a Newport Beach, Calif., company to build small cellular antenna systems from California to Massachusetts. The company wants to install low-power cellular antennas in public rights of way, land typically holding utility poles, street lamps and fire hydrants. In places where it can’t strap antennas to existing poles, it wants to erect new poles.

However, the new antenna on poles rollout has been delayed as communities confront what some consider unsightly installations and authorities wrestle with new regulatory questions. Sprint recently slashed its capital spending plans for the year as it waits for zoning approvals. Mobilitie says it has about 1,000 permits approved and will start large-scale installations once more are in hand.

Caption: One of the wireless antennas being installed on light poles in cities around the country for Sprint and other carriers to increase cellphone service quality at lower cost than much-larger tower antennas. Pole above is in Los Angeles. PHOTO: CELLTOWERPHOTOS.COM 

In the past, wireless carriers built towers of 200 feet or more that could send signals over large areas to cover as many customers as possible. Now that more people use smartphones to stream videos and surf the Web, carriers want to put lower-power antennas closer to the ground so that fewer people will connect to each one—resulting in less network congestion.

“It’s not a new concept,” said John Saw, Sprint’s chief technology officer. “All carriers are trying to ‘densify’ their networks.” But Sprint’s goal is to be “cheaper and faster and more innovative” than its rivals, he said.

Mounting antennas on existing utility poles is something most carriers are hoping to do. But cash-strapped Sprint aims to take the concept further than rivals: It is hoping to install as many as 70,000 antennas in the public right of way over the next few years. By comparison, it has 40,000 traditional antenna sites on towers or rooftops.

It is a central piece of a strategy devised in early 2015 by Sprint Chairman Masayoshi Sonto improve service while keeping costs down. Companies can negotiate with a city for one deal that includes various permits. Mobilitie Chief Executive Gary Jabara says building and operating these so-called small cells costs about $190,000 over 10 years, whereas a traditional tower costs $732,000 because of real estate rents, power and other costs.

The spectrum Sprint owns are ideally suited for this design because their high frequency prevents them from traveling long distances. Rather than string fiber-optic cables to each antenna, Sprint hopes to link them via wireless connections, further bringing down costs and speeding deployment.

“We’re not surprised that sometimes you will run into opposition in certain jurisdictions,” Mr. Saw says. “ ‘Not in my backyard’ has been around for a very long time.”

Sprint’s CFO, Tarek Robbiati, explained to J.P. Morgan analyst Phil Cusick at the bank’s tech conference last month that Sprint envisions using multiple small cells — radios with short range, which can be deployed on lamp-posts and other areas that don’t cost high rents — as a way to make Sprint’s network have better coverage:

There’s not enough towers in the country to do what we intend to do to densify the Sprint network, period. So, you’ve got to think differently. And really, there is great benefit around this, because the cost of deployment of cell sites is a fraction of the cost of the deployment of a tower site. So, whatever number you pick up for a tower site, it’s probably $200,000, thereabout, including all-in costs, labor and equipment. Small cell sites are a fraction of that, 60%, 70% lower.

Sprint’s strategy is sound, says David Dixon of FBR &Co:

While Sprint’s lower capex guidance is raising eyebrows across the industry and early execution challenges are
evident, we believe Sprint’s plan to use low-cost commodized small cells and CPE solutions leveraging its vast 2.5 GHz spectrum portfolio will allow it to close the multi-faceted performance gap with competitors in the coming years and achieve positive Free Cash Flow (FCF) while staying within the confines of lower capex guidance. If well executed, Sprint has the potential to become the lowest cost and fastest data network among the national carriers that are migrating to greater dependency on low-cost densification for coverage and capacity using commodity hardware solutions and new (shared) spectrum bands.

 Majority owner Softbank is highly levered, and investors fear it will be challenged going forward to support its majority investment in Sprint. However, Sprint is benefiting from a change in the technology cycle, leveraging the cloud to nextgen deployment options to spend much less than expected in capital to help generate positive FCF […] There is a general lack of understanding on how Sprint can achieve a 10x increase in downlink network speed at less than half the expected cost and achieve a 30% improvement in network coverage from increasing the maximum power levels in devices, which drives a 30% decrease in cost. Bottom line, existing spectrum in the 2.5 GHz frequency band should sustain Sprint’s improved performance for the next six-plus years […] 2.5 GHz spectrum is the basis of Sprint s LTE Plus network and makes up the bulk of Sprint’s spectrum portfolio. Sprint controls approximately 120 MHz of 2.5 GHz spectrum in 90% of the top 100 U.S. markets. If Softbank can create low-cost Pico and CPE solutions using 2.5 GHz spectrum to densify its network, Sprint will have the potential to become the lowest-cost and fastest data network among the national carriers that are migrating to a greater dependency on low-cost WiFi spectrum ahead of a migration to low-cost, shared LTE spectrum in the 3.5 GHz band and beyond.

However, other analysts are concerned about Sprint lowering Capex Spending as per this article

http://www.androidheadlines.com/2016/05/sprints-network-strategy-fire.html

Also see:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Sprint/comments/4ikm3q/so_with_sprint_lowering_its_capex_from_45b_to_3b/

In a new video clip, AT&T’s AVP Dave Wolter told Light Reading’s Carol Wilson that 5G represents a fundamental change.  Not just more and faster data, but massive IoT based deployment for a variety of industries.  Many new frequency bands are being considered for 5G.  However, there is still a lot of work to be done to bring 5G to market. Wolter said that work is well underway, starting with test bed activity this summer.  

The core network must be upgraded to support the diverse IoT requirements, Wolter added.  SDN and NFV will be key to create “network slices” to particular applications and serves their needs.

Meanwhile,  Verizon CEO Lowell McAdam said that the huge wireless network operator sees 5G as a potential cable/DSL replacement for delivering high-speed data to the home. That implies 5G might initially be used for wireless fixed line triple play services.  

McAdam said Verizon has now tested its initial 28GHz “5G testbed” at 1.8 Gbit/s in Basking Ridge, New Jersey.  Verizon plans a fixed wireless pilot in 2017 but McAdam envisages a broader deployment in the US over time. “I don’t know why there would be any limitation on where we would take it,” McAdam says. (See Verizon Will Pilot 5G Fixed Wireless in 2017.)

Verizon needs is enough fiber close enough to the 5G radios to make it viable, McAdam noted. “Close is to be defined,” he added.  “That’s why we bought XO Communications,” McAdam said. “Because they have 45 of the top 50 markets they have metro fiber rings that gives you the ability to be out into those markets and then you just run your extensions off of them.” 

“5G as a mobile network standard is probably more of a 2020 proposition,” McAdam acknowledged (what every reader of this blog knows already).

Finally, Ericsson has cooperated with academia to produce a comprehensive book about 5G titled, 

“5G Mobile and Wireless Communications”

Samsung Electronics announced a new contract with SK Telecom to deploy a commercial Internet of Things (IoT)-dedicated nationwide LoRaWAN network which is specified by the 300+ member LoRa Alliance.

The network will be deployed across Korea using the 900 MHz unlicensed frequency band. The commercial service is scheduled to launch in Daegu, Korea’s fourth largest city, next month and will be available nationwide by the middle of this year.

Daegu will serve as a test bed for the IoT network, and focus on setting up and adopting infrastructure for renewable energy solutions, cloud platforms and big data analytics of healthcare and medical services, as well as electric vehicle infrastructure for autonomous cars. For example, streetlights in the city will collect weather and traffic information using IoT sensors, enabling cost savings by automatically adjusting the lighting level and also sending air pollution status information.

“With the early deployment of a nationwide IoT network, SK Telecom will be able to maintain its position as pioneer in the field of telecommunications,” said Lee Jong-bong, Executive Vice President and Head of Infra Division at SK Telecom. “SK Telecom will continue to work closely with partners including Samsung to deliver new value and convenience to both individual and enterprise customers over the IoT network.”

“Now is a critical moment for ICT companies looking for new future business opportunities such as IoT services,” said Youngky Kim, President and Head of Networks Business at Samsung Electronics. “We are very pleased to partner with SK Telecom for its pioneering IoT vision. Samsung will contribute in creating the ecosystem for enabling significant changes driven by new IoT services.”

The country has already subsidized the building of Songdo, which is billed as the “world’s first smart city,” and is currently considering lifting regulations on the IoT industry in order to make it easier for companies to commercialize new technology.

South Korea’s Internet speeds are already among the fastest in the world, thanks to policies the government adopted more than a decade ago in order to help it recover from the Asian financial crisis.

Note that France based Orange (formerly France Telecom) has also opted to deploy the LoRa WAN.  Further, it’s rumored that there will be several large LoRa deployments within the next few months, including a U.S. wireless carrier.

From Craig Miller of Sequans Communications (builds LTE 1, M, M1 and M2 chips- but NOT for LoRa WAN):

“LoRa WAN is a perfectly fine technology, and like I said, there are applications where it (or it’s other proprietary rivals) will enjoy some acceptance, where folks are willing to tolerate the risk of relying long-term on a network that doesn’t exist on any truly national or global scale (unlike LTE), that runs on unlicensed frequencies (unlike LTE), and where the core IP is held largely by a single vendor (unlike LTE).  In campus deployments, in private networks, I’m sure it will do well.  BTW, someone still has to build, operate, maintain and upgrade those networks.”

References:

http://techcrunch.com/2016/05/25/samsung-and-sk-telecom-to-launch-worlds…

http://koreaittimes.com/story/59987/samsung-build-sk-telecom%E2%80%99s-l…

Introduction:

IoT (Internet of Things) is a mega technology trend that could very well be the next big marathon (or ultra marathon)! If the IoT marathon has a good finish, it will not only be an endurance test for legacy systems but will also shape the fate of small and big companies in many different industries.

At the Internet of Things (IoT) World conference May 10-12, 2016 in Santa Clara, CA, the mile markers for IoT were reinforced:

• 50 billion IoT devices by 2020 and 100 billion by 2025.
• At 100 billion interconnected things, IoT has the potential to be the largest land grab opportunity of all time.

IoT: The Numbers & Opportunities:

There is a frenzy to get in the IoT race and the barrier to entry is low.  That’s largely due to the availability of easy-to-assemble IoT kits and reference designs, MEMs based sensors (some popular ones are Samsung Artik, Intel Galileo, Arduino IoT), multiple LAN and WAN connectivity options, and IoT platforms that can be programmed via vendor specific Applications Program Interfaces (APIs).

Several industry enthusiasts perceive the IoT race as being able to convert anything that can be controlled (with on-off switch or manually configured) to a meaningful IoT device.

Thinking about the IoT impact from a product manager’s point of view, let us take an outside-in approach and ask this question: From the users perspective is there a potential wish-list of things we would want to connect to the Internet? 

To keep things simple, consider a few high-touch things from the users day-to-day usability:

The numbers in the above chart are based on a conservative adoption rate with a presumed 5x to 10x higher adoption in the industrialized world vs. emerging world countries.

Also, depending on how IoT is defined – smart phones might or might not be considered in the IoT umbrella.  A large part of the IoT camp does not consider smartphone as a thing or device given there is a human controlling it. The total above adds to 10 billion+ IoT devices.  One can categorize most of these IoT devices/things in the “Smart Home” market segment.

The IoT scope extends manifolds into industrial verticals, like Healthcare and Smart Cities (helping city planners provide a better quality of life experience).

Aari Jaksi, SVP of Connected Devices at Mozilla, a keynote speaker at the IoT World conference, said that IoT is perceived as primarily applicable to the “Home consumer segment” in Silicon Valley vs. “Industrial Segment” in Europe. He agreed IoT has yet to have a “Killer Application.”           

The pockets with significant impact, like the automotive industry, are seeing a large inflow of long-term capital investment. The end user benefit, business and revenue opportunities are relatively better understood for the automotive segment. Indeed, there was a dedicated section on Connected Cars at the conference and had representation from big brand auto-makers.    

The billions of IoT devices, in any shape, form and application would each need and consume compute, network, and massive amounts of storage.

• The dominant microprocessor vendors for compute are ARM and Intel.
• The sheer number of IoT devices and volume of data generated by each device will test the network scale and capacity.
• Several of these devices will generate continuous stream of data and need an always-on Internet connection.

There are several companies and proposed network solutions  (both in wireless and wireline communication – see Alan Weissberger’s article on IoT PANs/LANs/WANs).

The security, configuration and management aspects for the IoT devices are also sought after market opportunities. The cloud service providers like Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform all have specialized solutions for IoT application developers.

Conclusions:

The race to 50/100 billion IoT devices provides several new growth opportunities. There is huge participation in IoT from legacy vendors and start-ups, but there are many unanswered questions and challenges ahead. The IoT racecourse is a work in progress, however several runners would like to see the finish line. What is your IoT strategy?    

Introduction:

This is the third and final article reviewing the super charged and ultra hyped IoT World Conference which this author attended on May 10-11, 2016 in Santa Clara, CA.  It is by far the most important for any outdoor IoT market segment (e.g. Industrial IoT in the field), because some form of wireless WAN connectivity will be needed for all “things” and devices.

1.  Panel: Examining Carrier Business Models & Networks for IoT

• Panel Moderator: Chris Pearson, President of 5G Americas

• Panelist: Craig Miller, Vice President, Worldwide Marketing at Sequans Communications (LTE chip maker)

• Panelist: Jameson Buffmire, Principal at Orange IoT Studio 

• Panelist: Brian Huey, M2M & IoT Business Development for Smart Grid and Energy at Sprint

Panel Objectives (from IoT World website):

• Establishing effective business models for collaboration with key verticals
• Where are the partnership & monetization opportunities?
• Optimising networks for IoT
• Leveraging LTE Networks

Backgrounder: 

This session examined the alternatives for wireless WAN connectivity/Radio Access Networks (RANs) that go by monikers such as “NB-IoT” or “Narrow Band IoT,”  “LPWANs,” and other acronyms/ catchy names.  Track Chair Daryl Schoolar of Ovum pointed me to 3GPP Release 13 which will cover Low Power, Narrow Band connectivity as a set of additional LTE features.  From the 3GPP website:

“(3GPP) Release 13 will be the refinement and enhancement of work started in earlier Releases, including power reduction in both terminals and base stations via more efficient radio transmission.  Investigations will continue into Licensed-Assisted Access (LAA), with the start of specification work on LAA downlink operation in Rel-13.”

Discussion of Key Points:

1. Cellular standards are evolving to address the IoT market.  LTE Category 1 (low data use, low power) has been around for awhile, but not used much if at all.  

• 18 months ago, Sequans began a design of LTE Cat 1 chip sets which are now being used by IoT makers in Japan, US, Canada, South Korea, parts of Europe and China.  To be successful in the IoT market, LTE Cat 1 “things” need to have very low power consumption and cost.
• LTE Category M1 (formerly called Cat M) and M2 (formerly called NB-IoT) will be specified in 3GPP release 13.
• Sequans has partnered with Gemalto (a digital security company) to develop a new set of narrowband LTE MTC (Machine Type Communications) solutions based on LTE Cat M1 and M2.
• Ericsson is also backing NB-IoT as per this April 25, 2016 article with list of advantages of being part of 3GPP:

-> use of the LTE ecosystem, leading to fast development, economies of scale, and global roaming
-> can be deployed as a simple addition of new software to existing LTE infrastructure
-> a management framework exists, enabling large-scale deployments
-> framework includes state-of-the-art security
-> future feature growth for MBB and NB-IoT use cases

2.  Sprint is “excited about LTE Cat 1 as well as 2G/3G- CDMA solutions” that it’s used for M2M communications for many years.  The company is looking forward to standardized LTE Cat M1 IoT devices which could cost in the $15 to $20 range.  “Hockey stick” growth in low bandwidth, low power LTE for IoT is expected.  LTE Cat M2/NB-IoT wasn’t mentioned nor were the other LPWANs technologies detailed below.

3.  Orange (previously known as France Telecom) is one of the largest mobile network operators in Europe.  The telco has deployed a low power, long range wireless WAN based on LoRaWAN™ for IoT.   LoRaWAN was said to be an open global “standard” for secure, carrier-grade IoT LPWA connectivity from the LoRa® Alliance (which is NOT an official standards making body).  LoRaWAN (a Radio Access Network set of protocols) uses a new frequency modulation which produces maximum bit rates from 30K to 50K bits/sec.  It operates in the ISM Bands1  

Note 1. The industrial, scientific and medical (ISM) radio bands are radio bands (portions of the radio spectrum) reserved internationally for the use of radio frequency (RF) energy for industrial, scientific and medical purposes other than telecommunications.

Note 2.  On May 23, 2016, Orange S.A., officially joined the board of the 300+ member LoRa™ Alliance.

From LoRa® Alliance: “With a certification program to guarantee interoperability and the technical flexibility to address the multiple IoT applications be they static or mobile the Alliance believes that LoRaWAN can give all THINGS a global voice.”  View LoRa’s short introduction video here.

4.  Panel moderator Chris Pearson noted that France based upstart carrier SIGFOX has called attention to the need for low power, low speed wireless networks required for the IoT which they refer to as “ultra narrowband.”  SIGFOX believes that the overwhelming majority of outdoor IoT applications require low power and low speeds- more like 2G and not anything close to much higher data rates from 3G or 4G-LTE (let alone the elusive “5G”).

Note for clarification: The SIGFOX network operates at sub-GHz frequencies, on ISM bands : 868MHz in Europe/ETSI and 902MHz in the US/FCC.  SIGFOX uses what they refer to as “Ultra-Narrow Band (UNB)” using Gaussian FSK modulation.  They say that’s key to its ability to provide a scalable & high-capacity network. With a 162dB link budget, SIGFOX says it enables long range communications, with much longer reach than GSM.  

ENGIE M2M is building a SIGFOX compatible, Low Power, Wide Area dedicated IoT network as an exclusive SIGFOX partner and network operator for the Belgian market. 

On May 11, 2016, ON Semiconductor confirmed in a press release that its AX-SFEU system-on-chip (SoC) is now fully SIGFOX Ready™ certified for optimal two-way communication in Europe with certification underway for the US. The company’s press release states that their new SoC is a “low-power device-to-cloud connectivity solution that is highly optimized for environmental sensors, smart meters, patient monitors, security devices, streetlights and a broad spectrum of other industrial and consumer-oriented applications.”  

Also see this article which compares SIGFOX’s network and LoRaWAN specifications.

Author’s Note: Vodafone told Light Reading that the emerging NB-IoT (now known officially as LTE Cat M2) standard will be the death of rival technologies like Sigfox and LoRa, which have been relying on the use of unlicensed spectrum in the ISM bands to support services.  

Vodafone has opened a dedicated NB-IoT lab at its Newbury, UK headquarters, in partnership with Chinese equipment supplier Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd.  The global wireless operator was already a major player in the NB-IoT Forum, an association established in late 2015 to spur the development of the technology. Developers and organizations looking to use NB-IoT to support commercial services will now be able to test their applications at Vodafone’s new facility.

“NB-IoT operates in licensed spectrum and that is important to us at Vodafone because we need to deliver a high quality experience to our customers,” wrote Erik Brenneis, group director, Internet of Things (IoT) at Vodafone, in a blog post. “The alternative, using unlicensed spectrum, risks disruption to the signal from other technologies trying to use the same frequencies.”

5.   Brian Huey of Sprint said the forthcoming LTE Cat M standards from 3GPP would accelerate device to device communications and “mesh hopping” (which was not defined).  He also mentioned there were proprietary LPWA network schemes from INGENU (see below) and other start-ups.  

Developed country mobile operators were said to have “lit a fire” under the 3GPP, so that that organization would accelerate completion of Release 13 where LTE Cat M1 and M2 will be specified.  That’s because those operators urgently need a new network solution for IoT outdoor connectivity.  He noted that their traditional 3G/4G business has been slowing due to market saturation of smart phones and tablets.  So the revenue/profits (?) growth is expected to come from IoT!

6.  The “pain point” for operators deploying a new low power, low bandwidth wireless WAN for IoT will be in the certification process, according to the panelists.

7.  During the Q&A session, an audience member brought up yet another competing LPWA technology known as Wi-Fi HaLow from the WiFi Alliance.  It operates in frequency bands below one gigahertz, offering longer range, lower power connectivity to Wi-Fi CERTIFIED™ products. Wi-Fi HaLow will enable a variety of new power-efficient use cases in the Smart Home, connected car, and digital healthcare, as well as industrial, retail, agriculture, and Smart City environments. 

RPMA was said to have “a distinct advantage over cellular rivals thanks to the much lower amount of variations needed to build a global product portfolio. For a globally compatible cellular smart meter, a company might have to ensure that it has upwards of ten different cellular radio modules – to accommodate the variations between different countries or regions and their cellular spectrum and technology. With a technology like RPMA, that manufacturer should only need a single skew – resulting in a much simpler production line and distribution channel.”

NOTE: This author was not able to attend this late afternoon Wednesday panel session, because he was saturated with conflicting and confusing information from previous panels that day.  Also frustrated by the horrible lunchtime logistics which caused him to miss the 1:40pm-2pm session.

From IoT Analytics website:

Mesh networks are emerging as an alternative to LPWANs:

Mesh networks made a few unexpected headlines at IoT World. Mesh networks are communication networks that rely on device-to-device communication rather than connecting individual devices to the network.

SilverSpring Networks introduced their new Starfish connectivity solution (based on the Wi-Sun Mesh standard) for smart meters and similar Smart City Solutions. The talk was also about connected car mesh clouds. From a communications technology point of view, mesh networks represent an alternative to the heavily marketed low-power wide area networks (such as Sigfox or LoRa) for low-powered devices that do not require large amounts of bandwidth – both technologies have their pros and cons.

Conclusions:

At IoT World, we heard about the following wireless LPWAN technologies:  

• LTE Cat 1, LTE Cat M1, M2 (AKA NB-IoT),
• LoRaWAN,
• Sigfox’s proprietary 2G RAN, 
• Wi-Fi HaLow/IEEE 802.11ah,
• Ingenu RPMA, and
• Wi SUN/IEEE 802.15.4g (smart metering utility industry)

There were also “in the halls, break time chats” about new proprietary LPWAN protocols (mostly based on long range WiFi) being developed for use on unlicensed spectrum.  Of course, interference mitigation and/or backoff will be a key issue, because unlicensed spectrum is shared by a large number of players.

From Craig Miller of Sequans via email:

“The lower speed (and cost and power) categories likely to be popular for most IoT applications are LTE Cat 1 (10 Mbps DL/5 Mbps UL) and Cat M1 (1 Mbps/1 Mbps in full duplex FDD, 300kbps/375kbps in half duplex FDD).  NB-IoT is coming soon too, and offers even lower speeds, in the neighborhood of 40-50kbps in HD-FDD.”

Craig thinks there will be as many wireless WAN categories as are required by the wide range of IoT applications and use cases expected to exist.  

“Regarding the 3GPP LTE variants, the different User Equipment categories (Cat 1, Cat M1, Cat M2 or NB-IoT) are merely cost/power/performance optimizations to meet a range of price/performance points.  One does not necessarily obsolete the next – all are likely to co-exist, and more importantly, all are compatible with existing LTE spectrum and network deployments.  This means a network operator can – on the same radio access network used today for their mobile phone subscribers – support IoT applications ranging from high-throughput infotainment solutions for passenger vehicles, down to VoLTE-capable alarm systems for homes and businesses, to asset tracking solutions, to wearables, and even down to simple sensors or utility meters that send only a few hundred bytes of data a few times a month on a battery that lasts for 10 or more years.  This is a remarkably powerful capability, built on a remarkably versatile global standard.”

This author agrees with Mr. Miller that the various 3GPP low power, narrow bandwidth categories will be the first choice for most wireless network operators.  But what about the others?

• Orange’s choice of LoRaWAN?  
• Network operators chosing any of the other LPWAN variants noted above?  
• What if an IoT big user wants to switch from one wireless network operator to another which does NOT use the same RAN protocols?   For example, SIGFOX, Verizon, Orange all use different LPWANs for IoT connectivity!
• How many LPWAN/RAN baseband protocols with analog front ends, different frequencies and antennas, etc can a SoC support and still claim to be “low power?”‘
• In March 2015 AT&T said its fully integrated, LTE based, IoT solution platform includes:  IoT application services, business rules engine, data model, agents/device protocol adapters, connected products, and management applications. There was no mention of any other wireless WAN other than existing LTE!
• “It is a top priority of our company to continue to be a leader in the IoT space,” Chris Penrose, senior vice president of AT&T’s IoT organization told Reuters.
• Bottom line:  market fragmentation for any IoT application which requires wireless WAN connectivity.

Let’s sum up with a quote from John Treadway, of Cloud Technology Partners from his article titled:  IoT World: A Conference of Connectivity and Confusion

“There were also comments about the explosion in connectivity options and the need to manage complexity in these environments — something that is both a threat and an opportunity for integrators and vendors to solve.”

Good luck and till next time…………………………………………………………