IEEE ComSoc Technology Blog

Perhaps many readers were wondering why SPRINT was upgrading their core network backbone. (See Sprint to Scale Core Network to 40G/100G .. on this website). SPRINT is perceived by most folks as a wireless carrier that’s behind the curve in deploying LTE (they incorrectly chose WiMAX as their “4G” technology).  That widely believed perception is not accurate as SPRINT has ALWAYS been a well respected wireline carrier.  For over 30 years SPRINT has offered wireline public data network services to enterprise and government customers. Those services have included X.25, ISDN, Frame Relay, IP VPN and (recently Business Ethernet).

The 3rd ranked U.S. telco has just announced a major expansion of its Business Ethernet (AKA Carrier Ethernet, EoC, EoF and other names) coverage for enterprise and wholesale customers in the U.S. and abroad.  It plans to more than double its U.S. footprint to 143 markets while expanding service to Argentina and Poland overseas.  SPRINT now delivers a variety of Business Ethernet services to 38 countries.  For more information, please visit:  http://www.sprint.com/business/resources/FactSheet_EthernetServices.pdf

A Sprint spokeswoman cited “strong” demand for Business Ethernet, which provides dedicated and aggregated speeds from 2 Megabits up to 1 Gigabit per second.  With lots of aggregated 1G Ethernet traffic (as well as other traffic types like IP VPN), one can understand why the telco is upgrading their core network to 40G/100G as described in my previous article.

Introduced five years ago (and based on the IEEE 802.3ah Ethernet First Mile standard of 2003), Carrier Ethernet access is geared for businesses and Sprint’s wholesale partners.  Outside the U.S., Sprint currently offers Ethernet in 36 countries including Brazil, Canada, China, India and many European countries.  Businesses can now choose from 18 aggregated and 16 dedicated Ethernet speeds.

“Aggregated Ethernet access can provide a cost-effective alternative to traditional TDM access, while Dedicated Ethernet access expands easily to meet specific customer bandwidth needs, offering fixed-rate and fractional (burstable) billing,” Sprint noted in a press release (see url below).

Stephanie Greenwood, a spokeswoman for Sprint, said the company doesn’t reveal the number of Ethernet customers or total sales tied to such services. However, she noted customer demand has been robust.  “We knew customer demand would be strong and we had expectations, which have been met,” she said. For more information, please see the press release:

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20120619005585/en/Sprint-Expand-Ethernet-Access-Nationwide-Reduce-Complexity

And an earlier article detailing Sprint’s Business Ethernet roll-outs several months ago: 

Sprint to launch Business Ethernet service in New U.S. and Global Markets

https://techblog.comsoc.org/2011/09/09/sprint-to-launch-business-ethernet-service-in-new-u-s-and-global-markets

As part of its Network Vision program, Sprint will be able scale its core network initially to 40G and 100G, and later to 400G b/sec by using Ciena’s 6500 packet optical platform.  The updated network, powered exclusively by Ciena, will enable Sprint to enhance transport network scalability, cost and performance. It will also enable Sprint to support growing demand for wireless and wireline high-speed data service offerings, reaching core network speeds of 40G and 100G today with the ability to scale to 400G and beyond in the future.

Iyad Tarazi, VP of Network Development & Engineering, Sprint, said that with Ciena’s coherent optical technology, “we are able to expand our network to address growing demand for high-speed data services today, with a built-in path to deliver higher-speed data services in the future.”

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sprint-upgrades-network-with-ciena-coherent-optical-technology-2012-06-13

TELECOM-PRO Comment:  That 400G transmission will be needed soon for core networks is a startling revelation, since 100G is not yet widely deployed.  Ciena had earlier announced that BT (UK) would be a 400G customer.

Alcatel Lucent said in May that 20 customers are ready to deploy its 400Gbit/s Photonic Service Engine based equipment when it’s commercially available at the end of the year.

http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/blogs/techzine/2012/the-400g-photonic-service-engine/

Huawei’s new 400G DWDM system provides a capacity of up to 20 Tbit/s over a single fiber (C-band) and a transmission distance spanning 1,000 km without electrical regeneration.

http://www.huawei.com/en/about-huawei/newsroom/press-release/hw-124626-400gdwdmprototypeultrabroadband.htm

Some pundits are even talking 1Terabit optical transmission will be needed soon in the core network!  We find that very hard to believe.  While the core/backbone network increases capacity, there appears to be a huge lag in providing fiber to cell towers and commercial buildings which would result in higher speed mobile backhaul and business communications (Internet and private line/virual private line).  We also think that inter-(telco) office links need to be upgraded to 1G/40G before we see a real need for 100G/400G in the core.  So we believe that upgrading telco backbone networks to 400G and beyond is premature at this time.

Ciena has introduced a networking platform that includes many of the principles of software-defined networking (SDN) to support full programmable switching using application programming and network-to-network interfaces. OPn is designed to provide superior network functionality at the control plane by making networks more responsive to applications and services such as VoIP and network virtualization.

OPⁿ spans Ciena’s optical and packet layers and will involve programability at multiple layers of the network, enabled both through application programming interfaces (APIs) and through network-to-network interfaces that are “subtly different,” said Ciena CTO Steve Alexander.  OPⁿ will also involve bypassing certain network functions, thereby simplifying data forwarding plane functionality.  

Every major vendor is declaring an SDN plan, it seems, and there might be a fight brewing over who gets to provide the control plane that will reach into multiple layers of the network and orchestrate tasks such as moving virtual-machines.

http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=221843&

SDN will be the focus of the IEEE ComSocSCV July 11 meeting in Santa Clara, CA (organized by this author):

Software Defined Networking (SDN) Explained- New Epoch or Passing Fad?

Abstract

After several years of research, Software Define Networking (SDN) has finally become a reality. At this year’s Open Networking Summit, Google announced it had already deployed its own SDN design in the backbone network that interconnects all its Data Centers. NTT and Verizon hinted that they’d deploy SDN soon, while network equipment vendors indicated they were committed to the concept. IT executives and managers are also taking notice. One pundit predicted a ‘new epoch’ in networks based on SDN- for data centers, campus networks and WANs. But what exactly is SDN and the associated OpenFlow protocol that the Open Networking Foundation (ONF) is standardizing?

Speakers

• Guru Parulkar is the founding Executive Director of Open Networking Research Center
• Dan Pitt is an Executive Director at the Open Networking Foundation

More info at:  http://www.ewh.ieee.org/r6/scv/comsoc/index.php#current

Vodafone and Spain’s Telefónica, which operates the O2 mobile service in the UK, will share their cell towers, masts, radio equipment and local transmission kit in a 50/50 joint venture aimed at improving user coverage and accelerating the development of new fourth-generation (4G) mobile services.  The agreement could reduce the companies’ UK mobile network costs by 25 per cent, producing combined savings of more than £1bn by 2015, said Emeka Obiodu, a telecoms analyst at Ovum.

“There is the obvious possibility for this arrangement to be extended into other important European markets in which Vodafone and Telefónica compete – Germany and Spain for example,” said analysts at Espirito Santo. “The agreement has the potential to significantly improve network quality, speed to market with 4G, lead to much better cash generation, and enhance returns on capital in the UK market for both companies.”

The new joint venture between Telefónica (O2 in the UK) and Vodafone – which will not affect the way they compete for customers – is an extension of a collaboration agreed in 2009, which did not cover all sites or radio and local transmission equipment.

The companies said the deal  will create one grid of 18,500 cellular sites, allow indoor coverage of 98 per cent of the UK population with second and third-generation wireless technologies by 2015, and 98 per cent population coverage with fourth-generation technology by 2017.

“Our motivation is the fact we have 4G coming round the corner,” said Guy Laurence, chief executive officer of Vodafone UK. “It was a natural point for us to do this because we have to replace equipment anyway. It makes sense to do so at this inflection point.”

This sharing of cellular network infrastructure could serve as a blueprint for similar deals across Europe, as wireless telcos search for ways to reduce cost and add capacity.  Europe’s largest mobile phone companies are examining fresh ways to trim costs in a market beset by rising investment demands, increased regulatory pressure and weaker consumer spending.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/be188e8e-b069-11e1-a79b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1xDIBXEV4

AJW Comment:  This sharing of cellular infrastructure has been talked about for a long time and is now finally happening in the UK and some places in Europe (see below).  But it doesn’t appear likely in the U.S.- at least not with the 4 leading mobile operators- VZW, AT&T, Sprint or T-Mobile. Why not?

NY TImes reports:

“The costs of building LTE networks in saturated European markets has also prompted Telenor, a Norwegian operator, and Tele2, a Swedish operator, to merge their networks in Sweden. In Germany, both O2, the nation’s No. 3 mobile operator, and E-Plus, the No. 4 owned by KPN of the Netherlands, are examining venture options for their businesses.
“As network quality perceptions are becoming more about how fast and reliable networks are in any location rather than who has the best coverage, there is less and less logic in every operator in a market having their own entirely independent network infrastructure,” said Philip Kendall, an analyst at Strategy Analytics in Milton Keynes, England.
Mr. Dunne, the O2 chief executive, said the operators would investigate ways to cut up to 10 percent of their combined cellphone masts.  In a note to clients, Sanford C. Bernstein & Company, a New York investment fund manager, said the network venture could generate up to 1.5 billion euros, or $1.9 billion, in savings for each operator.   The network venture aims to help O2 and Vodafone keep pace with Everything Everywhere, which was created in 2010 and displaced O2 as Britain’s No. 1 operator.”

The Financial Times reports that several of the UK’s telecom operators have identified small business enterprises (SMEs) as a driver for future growth.  At their full-year results presentations this month, both BT Group and Vodafone highlighted small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) as one of their top priorities to increase revenues.  There is no dominant player in the UK’s SMEs telecoms market, with Virgin Media, BT Group, Vodafone and Daisy Group among the companies competing for a piece of the market.

“There is a growing trend towards mobility for businesses to access all the systems in their offices from their mobile device wherever they are, which is what attracts mobile providers such as Vodafone to SMEs,” says Mike Cansfield, a telecoms analyst at IDC, the consultancy group.

Last year, Vodafone launched a global advertising blitz to promote its One Net unit, which offers services such as linking landline numbers to mobiles, resulting in the net addition of 500,000 users to the division and pushing its customer numbers above 2m. The marketing campaign resulted in a 2.2 per cent year-on-year increase in revenues from Vodafone’s business-focused enterprise division.  Globally, Vodafone has 34m business customers accounting for about one-quarter of its £43bn in annual service revenue.

“The enterprise market offers attractive growth opportunities. Multinationals and smaller companies alike are looking not only to manage costs but also to move to converged platforms and improve mobile connectivity and productivity for their workforces,” Vodafone says.

Vodafone’s looming £1bn takeover of Cable & Wireless Worldwide is likely to further bolster the group’s UK presence in the sector, piling pressure on smaller rivals such as Daisy, the solely business-to-business telecoms company.  Without the marketing clout of Vodafone, Daisy uses its face-to-face customer service as a selling point for its subscriber base of 75,000 businesses, which are dwarfed by BT’s 893,000 SME clients.

“We set ourselves up as an SME-focused company because we wanted to spread out our risk over thousands of customers rather than be totally reliant on one or two big ones,” says Matthew Riley, Daisy chief executive.

Daisy’s customers employ an average of 80 staff, leaving the bigger contracts to the likes of BT and Vodafone.

“Big companies have layers of bureaucracy. With small companies it’s nearly always the boss that you deal with, and decisions are made quickly,” says Mr Riley.

When asked about the impact of the UK double-dip recession, Mr Riley says that it is mostly behind SMEs because “the weaker ones have already gone bust. The stronger ones have pulled their belts in, but they’re not seeing much growth.”

Budget-conscious SMEs have provided business opportunities for telecoms providers to combine services, such as fixed-line telephone systems, mobile, broadband, cloud computing and consultancy, into one lower cost package.

However, the benefits of this move is yet to reach Daisy’s bottom line.

At Daisy’s most recent results for the six months to September 31, the group narrowed pre-tax losses from £10m to £9m, out of revenues up from £119m to £176m. Daisy’s sales were bolstered by a swath of acquisitions.

“The problem that Daisy Group has is that it is not big enough in a market where size really matters,” says Mr Cansfield, acknowledging that Daisy has made acquisitions to address this concern.

Although SMEs have tightened their belts during the downturn, both Mr Riley and Mr Cansfield backed calls for the government to increase its pressure on banks to free up lending to SMEs to stimulate growth.

“An economy grows when its SME sector is vibrant,” says Mr Cansfield. “Big multinationals are not the companies that drive economic growth.”

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/dc0464d0-ab0b-11e1-b875-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1x7HZFUXA

Verizon Communications said today that it will increase the fastest speed for its FiOS broadband service, doubling the download rate to 300 megabits per second and increasing the upload maximum to 65 Mbps for that service package. Verizon will also add a new tier at 75 Mbps downstream/ 35 Mbps upstream. The zippiest speeds are designed for larger households — generally those with at least five members — who are streaming content throughout their home on various devices.  Higher performance routers that support Gigabit WiFi will enable in-home networks to support the faster speeds.

Verizon clearly understands the impact of the “connected home.”  Broadband Internet enables people to consume more of their entertainment and do most of their communications at home.  It also understands the impact of more devices in the home. For example, it recommends its new 75/35 Mbps for a household that “streams HD movies to the TV, downloads or uploads video files, participates in multiplayer gaming, and has three or more Internet-connected users on multiple devices.”

The higher 150/65 and 300/65 Mbps speed tiers are aimed at larger families with 5 or more people doing streaming, gaming, etc. things on a variety of devices.  And that makes many, new, unknown applications possible.  In particular, fast, low-latency fiber-to-the-home connections (e.g. FiOS) offer the possibility of medical care in the home, video presence in HD, or maybe even your own personal holodeck. As efforts to build gigabit networks expand around the country, we’re going to see new applications. Verizon at least is letting its customers get a taste of what those might be. With faster speeds and without a data cap to keep them in check.

http://gigaom.com/broadband/top-that-cable-verizon-offers-300-mbps-home-broadband/

Telecom-Pro Comment:  The upgraded FiOS speeds from Verizon will give it a distinct advantage over both cable cos (MSOs) as well as AT&Ts U-Verse, which relies on telephone twisted pair for the “last mile” access (currently via VDSL2).   That makes FiOS virtually future proof in its support of new applications.  

We know that AT&T is supporting fiber to the premises for new U-Verse (greeenfield) buildouts, but not for existing installations that are served by copper phone wires.  No way can twisted pair support the upstream/downstream rates that fiber to the home can. That limits the new high bandwidth/ low latency applications that U-Verse can support.

ITU-T.81 – ISO/IEC 10918-1 is one of the dominant image compression standards. If that name doesn’t mean anything to you – it is just ordinary JPEG. The JPEG committee – of which I’m a member of – released various new standards in the past view years that provided better performing compression schemes, more flexible image representations and smarter file formats. While some of them were adopted in the industry, as JPEG-LS (aka LOCO) and JPEG 2000 in the digitial movie and medical industry, all the rest of the world still speaks old traditional JPEG.

It is probably time to update the standard, and some members of the JPEG committee are looking into bringing 10918-1 up to date. New features might include lossless compression, high-bitrate compression and support for alpha channels. However, much care must be taken in extending a standard as predominant as JPEG, and one of the highest priorities in any such attempt should be backwards compatibility to existing implementations.

What can be done? At first, it takes a “verification model” that implements the proposed extensions. And here it is:

https://subversion.rus.uni-stuttgart.de/repos/libjpeg/stable/0.1/

available for public, under the GPL licence for everyone to try. This is a subversion repository. Use “anonymous” as user name, and “jpeg” as password, and you’re in.

This is a completely new implementation of 10918-1,and unlike most (or all) other codecs you might know, this implementation is complete. It features not only the DCT based process most codecs support, but also the JPEG lossless (yes, there is one) process, the hierarchical mode, arithmetic coding (patents run out by now), DNL markers, 12bits per pixel.

As this is might become a verification model for the proposed extensions, you find of course also new features, as lossless coding with the DCT based process; this codec is able to encode images in a special way such that they can be reconstructed without any loss by using the new codec you find here – and can be viewed with any existing JPEG codec as well – then of course with some minimal loss.

If you want to contribute, you are more than welcome to do so. You can either add to the program (ask me for write access to the repository) or report any bugs you find. For that, sign up at the bug tracker here:

https://lila-dev.rus.uni-stuttgart.de/bugs/

Obviously, the JPEG is also looking for industry to show interest in such applications and extensions, and would be happy to hear from you if this development is interesting for you. If so, please ask me for the official JPEG questionnaire on low-complexity coding, and I will forward to the committee. Or approach the committee yourself via your national delegate. Or contact me:

thor at math dot tu dash berlin dot de

Greetings, and Happy JPEGing,

Thomas

Gigabit Squared has raised $200 million to construct broadband networks in six U.S. communities that contain research universities. The effort to provide ultrahigh-speed Internet access will collaborate with Gig.U, which has led the installation of fiber-optic networks in university communities. The six communities have not been named. Gigabit Squared, based in Cleveland Heights, Ohio, is in negotiations with its first university and says it will make announcements about timing and participation later this year.

Mark Ansboury, Gigabit Squared’s President and co-founder told the NY Times, “The big carriers built their fiber-to-the-home systems, but we have really seen them pull back in recent years.”  He noted that the United States was falling behind other nations that have moved aggressively to build high-speed Internet infrastructures. It ranked 13th in average connection speed in a survey last year by the network service provider Akamai; the world leader was South Korea, followed by Japan, Hong Kong, the Netherlands and Latvia.

Last year Google selected Kansas City, Mo., to build a prototype for speeds of at least a gigabit — 1,000 megabits per second. The company originally said it would offer the service in the first half of this year, but the date has slipped and Mr. Medin said the details would be announced soon.  Google has already deployed a small demonstration network in homes next to the Stanford campus.

Gigabit Squared described the next generation of Internet service as two gigabits — about 2,000 megabits per second, roughly 71 times the speed of a standard cable modem. 

Gig.U is the brainchild of Blair Levin, former director of the government’s 2010 National Broadband Plan, which originally called for high-speed network islands around military bases. Mr. Levin later settled on university communities as a better starting base for future Internet services.

Even though major communications firms are not pushing toward higher speeds, there are pilot efforts at gigabit networking in several states, including Tennessee, Louisiana and California.  Sonic.net, a regional Internet service provider based in Northern California, is offering gigabit networks to homes on several blocks in Sebastopol, CA.  The service is $59.95 a month, said Dane Jasper, Sonic.net’s chief executive, who added, “It’s the fastest and cheapest broadband in America — although it’s admittedly a small footprint.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/23/technology/partnership-plans-to-bring-ultrahigh-speed-internet-to-six-communities.html?_r=1

Teleco-Pro Comment:  We think that more broadband initiatives like this one are urgently needed in the U.S.  With the failure of the 1996 Telecom Deregulation act, most of the competitive local exchange carriers (CLECs) have disappeared.  The existing competitive carriers (e.g. TW Telecom, XO, Level One, etc) and cablecos/MSOs (Comcast, TW Cable, Cox Cable, etc) seem to be ahead of AT&T and VZ in delivering high speed Internet to SMB customers.

IEEE 802.16’s Session #79 meeting was held on 16-19 January 2012 in Atlanta, Georgia, USA. This Working Group (WG) interim session was co-located with the IEEE 802 Wireless Interim.  This report was written by 802.16 chair Roger Marks.

HetNet Study Group

The new IEEE 802.16 WG Study Group on the WirelessMAN Radio Interface in Heterogeneous Networks (HetNet Study Group) met for the first time. Input contributions were received from individuals affiliated with Consensii LLC, ETRI, Nokia Siemens Networks, and WiMAX Forum. Based on the inputs and discussions, the Study Group proceeded in two directions:

• Following discussion of specific proposals related to heterogeneous networks incorporating multiple radio interface technologies, the Study Group issued a Call for Contributions on the Open Mobile Network Interface (OMNI) Standard for an IEEE 802 HetNet. Participants in the discussion developed a proposal for an IEEE 802 Tutorial entitled Heterogeneous Networking among the IEEE 802 Family: Proposal for an OMNI Standard. The tutorial has been scheduled for the evening of 16 July at the IEEE 802 Plenary in San Diego.
• Separately, the Study Group drafted PAR P802.16q on a Multi-Tier amendment to IEEE Std 802.16. This was forwarded by the WG to the IEEE 802 Executive Committee (EC) for review at the July 802 Plenary.

The Study Group issued a closing report

Metrology Study Group

The new IEEE 802.16 WG Study Group on Broadband Wireless Access Metrology (Metrology Study Group) met for the first time. Input contributions were received, from individuals affiliation with Consensii LLC, Georgia Tech, Google, Mobile Pulse, Inc., and NIST. Most contributions were related to network performance measurements. The Study Group concluded a draft PAR P802.16.3 on Mobile Broadband Network Performance Measurements, which was forwarded by the WG to the IEEE 802 Executive Committee (EC) for review at the July 802 Plenary. The Study Group remains open to investigation of other possible projects as well. It issued a Call for Contributions on Potential New Metrology Standardization Projects and summarized its work in a closing report

Machine-to-Machine Task Group

At Session #79, the Machine-to-Machine (M2M) Task Group resolved comments received during the first recirculations of the IEEE Sponsor Ballots regarding drafts P802.16p and P802.16.1b. In each case, a second recirculation will be requested and, if successful, the draft will be submitted to RevCom. The TG issued a closing report.

GRIDMAN Task Group

The Working Group’s GRIDMAN Task Group resolved comments received during the first recirculations of WG Letter Ballot #37 and WG Letter Ballot #38, in which drafts P802.16n and IEEE P802.16.1a are under review. In each case, a second 30-day recirculation will follow. The TG issued a closing report.

4G Counts Quarterly Report – Q4 2011 Produced March 2012

Executive Summary

Many operators launched LTE networks during the year as they upgraded or moved from 3G. On the other hand, the WiMAX industry continued to lose pace around the globe. Not only did several of the most prominent WiMAX operators announce their commitment to TD-LTE, but most slowed down the addition of new WiMAX subscribers to their networks as they antici-pated their move to the new technology.

A few highlights:
1) Sprint’s announcement that the first major markets in United States were to re-ceive 4G LTE in mid-2012, including Dallas, Atlanta, Houston, San Antonio and others, totalling 10 markets,

2) The FCC disapproval of the merger between AT&T and TMobile, meaning the deal is officially dead,

3) The AT&T LTE commercial launch covering 28 markets at the end of 2011,

4) Sprint’s announcement of its intention to help finance Clearwire’s LTE network and keep offering WiMAX service through 2015 under a set of agreements worth as much as US$1.6 billion,

5) Yota’s (Russia) launch of LTE in the city of Novosibirsk, Siberia, in December 2011 after a long wait for government approval.

Not only are many operators moving to LTE, but several vendors are exiting WiMAX al-together and refocusing on their 3GPP mobile broadband business. One of the major announcements during Q4 2011 was that Nokia Siemens Networks sold its WiMAX unit recently acquired from Motorola to NewNet Communications. This was the second re-cent sell-off for the company, as Dragonwave acquired its microwave backhaul business in October 2011.

LTE Deployment Trends

At the end of Q4 2011, 54 operators were commercial with LTE, including 19 added dur-ing the quarter alone. The total number of LTE subscribers at the end of the year reached 12.02 million worldwide. Fully 224 additional major mobile operators had com-mitted to launching the technology in the future, 193 with FDD-LTE, 31 with TD-LTE.

Although most of the commitments, trials and deployments are predominantly FDD-LTE, TD-LTE is gaining significant momentum. At the end of December 2011, there were 30 commitments to TD-LTE and 4 commercial TD-LTE networks: Aero2 (Poland), STC (Saudi Arabia), Mobily (Saudi Arabia) and SKY (Brazil). SKY’s is the first TD-LTE deploy-ment in Latin America of this kind. The region where more TDLTE trials have been con-ducted is APAC with 18 operators trials, followed by Europe with 5 trials. Although, the number of commercial LTE deployments in Europe is higher than any other region, with 25 commercial deployments counted at the end of 2011, the region still scores a very low LTE subscriber uptake with only 980k LTE subscribers reported at the end of 2011, rep-resenting 8% of the global LTE subscriber base.

A major reason for this phenomenon is that LTE smartphones are, strangely, nowhere to be seen in Europe. But that is changing in 2012, as some major LTE players including TeliaSonera and Tele2 in Sweden, and Vodafone Germany announced in February 2012 the introduction of new LTE smartphones. The introduction of LTE smartphones in Europe will boost the subscriber uptake in the region.

The most recent Maravedis 4G Subscriber Forecast predicts that LTE subscribers will grow from 12 million in 2011 to 469 million in 2016. By the end of 2016, 75% of the LTE subscriber base or 350 million will be FDD LTE subscribers, while the remaining 25% or 118 million will be TD-LTE subscribers. We expect that the TD-LTE subscriber uptake will commence in 2013.

BWA/WiMAX Trends

While in previous years we saw WiMAX subscribers growing at an average quarterly rate of 25%-30%, our findings revealed that subscriber growth for WiMAX decreased dramati-cally in 2011. In Q4 2011 alone, the quarterly WiMAX subscriber growth was only 14%. Today, WiMAX is being seen as the technology of choice for greenfield operators to pro-vide fixed-nomadic connectivity, while LTE is the choice for operators wanting to provide mobile broadband. At the end of Q4 2011, the worldwide BWA/WiMAX industry ac-counted for 25.16 million subscribers, an increase of 14% quarter over quarter from 22.07 million reported at the end of Q3 2011. Q4 2011 quarterly increase was low com-pared to the previous quarters.

For example, in Q4 2010, the subscriber quarterly increase was 35%, while in Q1 2011 it decreased to only 30%. In Q2 and Q3 2011, the subscriber quarterly increase was 20% per quarter. This shows a quarterly slowdown on subscriber additions. The BWA/WiMAX subscriber base grew by 12.16 million between Q4 2010 and Q4 2011, which represents a yearly increase of 193%.

For the Top 50 BWA/WiMAX operators tracked in 4GCounts Q4 2011, recorded ARPU was US$39.60 and US$76.24 for residential and business subscribers respectively, com-pared to US$39.17 and US$77.51 for the same segments in Q3 2011. Total worldwide WiMAX business revenues were $2.10 billion during the quarter.

http://maravedis-rethink.com/pdf/Executive%20Summary%204G%20Counts.pdf