IEEE ComSoc Technology Blog

In its new report:  “4G Fuels the Decade of Disruption,” the Yankee Group predicts a slow start for 4G but says moves made by players in 2011 will determine their ultimate fate in the marketplace.

“Connectivity—especially mobile connectivity—drives disruption in the telecom arena,Once 4G takes hold, its impact will be swift and profound, and 2011 is the year to prepare.”” said Jason Armitage, senior analyst at Yankee Group and a co-author of the report. We are hoping to have a phone interview with Jason who works and lives in London, England

Here are the 2011 predictions for 4G from Yankee Group:

1. 4G will be a “drop in the ocean.” By the end of 2011, the world’s most important 4G technology (LTE) will account for only 0.04 percent of all global mobile lines (but 0.33% in US).

2. 4G will fail to win the enterprise. Currently, less than a third of enterprise decision-makers believe 4G is important; that number won’t budge by year end.

3. 4G killer device will be a hotspot. Users will gravitate to hotspots’ simplicity and savings, reducing 4G subscriptions in the long run.

4. Competition in the U.S. will create a 4G marketing mess. As operators slap the “4G” moniker on everything from WiMAX and LTE to HSPA+, confusion will abound.

5. A denial-of-service attack will take a 4G network down. In their rush to roll out 4G, operators are cutting corners on security; one unlucky operator will pay the price.

6. Chinese vendors will beat 3G incumbents in their own backyards. Both Huawei and ZTE will make key 4G wins outside Asia, to the detriment of established players.

7. 4G users will spend twice as much time on the mobile Web as their non-4G counterparts. Companies that invest in mobile Web sites and free or near-free rich media content will benefit most.

8. Mobile video will not drive consumers to 4G. Mobile video won’t be the killer 4G app everyone expects; instead, consumers will spend more time with music services like Pandora and Slacker.

9. The Web will not save operators in the mobile apps market. Operators think 4G will give them a leg up in mobile apps, but Apple and Google will still lead the market in 2011.

10. MVNO hype will build, but most of it will lead to nothing. 4G MVNOs will fail for the same reason most 2G and 3G MVNOs failed: Most won’t complement their hosts’ businesses.

11. Pricing will end in tiers. 4G will herald the introduction of tiered mobile data pricing models, and flat-rate pricing will be gone forever.

12. Carrier VoIP will still be AWOL, despite 4G. 4G’s speed and bandwidth are multimedia must-haves but not big voice necessities. Few operators will launch services before 2013, allowing over-the-top companies to gain an early lead.

13. Google will take the wheel in mobile data. Currently behind Apple and others in the mobile space, Google will quickly grab the mobile lead as 4G rolls out.

http://blogs.yankeegroup.com/2010/12/07/webinar-yankee-groups-2011-predictions/

Infonetics Research (http://twitter.com/infonetics) released its 3Q10 report on  2G/3G Mobile Infrastructure and Subscribers market share and forecast.

MOBILE INFRASTRUCTURE MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

. The worldwide 2G and 3G mobile infrastructure market grew 2% in 3Q10, to $8.8 billion

. The overall market is still down year-over-year (-20.7% from 3Q09), when the market was inflated by massive 3G rollouts in China

. All major segments of the market posted sequential gains, including radio access network (RAN), mobile switching subsystem (MSS), mobile packet core, and home location register (HLR) equipment

. Since its peak of $42.5 billion in 2008, annual spending on just RAN equipment — base transceiver stations (BTS), base station controllers (BSC), and remote radio heads (RRH) — is dropping almost $10 billion, to an expected $33.4 billion in 2010

. The GSM RAN equipment market bounced back in 3Q10, up 12.5% sequentially, led by major 2G capacity upgrades in China and India

. Ericsson remains the King of the Radio, with double the revenue market share of its nearest competitor, Nokia Siemens, for worldwide macrocell RAN equipment

. In the mobile packet core equipment segment — in which Ericsson is also #1 — just 3 quarters ago the spread between #2 Nokia Siemens and #3 Cisco was about 13.5 percentage points; in 3Q10 the distance between them is only 2 percentage points

. The number of mobile subscribers passed the 5 billion bar in 2010 and is on track to hit 6 billion between 2012 and 2013

-With the worldwide population now at 6.9 billion, it is very likely that mobile penetration will exceed the global population in the near future

Infonetics Analyst Comment:

“As we anticipated more than a year ago, in the third quarter of 2010 the mobile infrastructure market was marked by the start of 2G capacity upgrades and modernization projects, sustained but slowing 3G activity in North America, and the start of 3G rollouts in India. Despite the misleading ‘4G’ pandemonium in the US, 2G is back in full force and will keep the planet busy for the next few years as global mobile penetration reaches 100%,” predicts Stéphane Téral, Infonetics Research’s principal analyst for mobile and FMC infrastructure.

More info at:  www.infonetics.com

FG-FN Mini Workshop:  Lubljana, Slovenia Wednesday, 1 December (14:00 – 18:00)

Note:  ITU-T SG13  established “Focus Group on Future Networks (FG-FN)” to share the discussion on Future Networks and ensure global common understanding about Future Networks with collaboration and harmonization with relevant entities and activities.

The Focus Group, by collaborating with worldwide future network (FN) communities (e.g., research institutes, forums, academia and etc), aims to collect and identify visions of future networks, based on new technologies,  assess the interactions between future networks and new services, familiarize ITU-T and standardization communities with emerging attributes of future networks, and
 encourage collaboration between ITU-T and FN communities.

Motivation for this workshop: FG FN made big progress during last 18 months. FG produced very tangible results (documents, database).  It has established a very comprehensive program of work. This FG needs to communicate its achievements to the public (ITU, researcher, industry). FG FN will use mini workshop in Ljubljana to present our achievements to date.

Agenda:

• Introduction – FG scope and objectives (Alojz Hudobivnik, Iskratel)

• FGFN – the history of 18 months (Takashi Egawa, NEC)

• Results of FG in details

  • Contributions analysis (Nozomu Nishinaga, NICT,)

  • FN Vision (Group moderator: Daisuke Matsubara, Hitachi)

  • FN Virtualization (Group moderator: Sangjin Jeong, ETRI)

  • FN energy savings (Moderator: Toshihiko Kurita, Fujitsu)

• Database of world R&D projects about FN

  • Overview (as a source for now and the future)(Nozomu Nishinaga, NICT)

  • Examples:

    • Presentation of some FP7 project (Alix Galis, UCL)

    • Korea Future Internet R&D Plan and ETRI Activities (Myung-Ki Shin, ETRI)

    • Presentation of AKARI project (Hideki Otsuki,NICT)

• ICT research network in Slovenia (August Jauk, ARNES, CTO)

• Further steps in standardization and the role of the ITU (Chaesub Lee, SG13 Chairman)

Introduction:

With the global liquidity picture improving, more early stage companies are being funded by VCs and Angel Investors.  There’ve been more IPOs and some big corporate acquisitions, which provide the needed “exit” for those investors.  Some big M&A deals included: McAfee (Intel), Sybase (SAP) and 3PAR (HP).   There were more IPOs this year too. IPO’s like MakeMyTrip and Qlik Technologies were succesful.  Finally, there were a raft of new startup acquisitions and several large VC financing rounds for still private companies.

Another dynamic at work clearly favors start up companies. It’s that the largest companies are doing very little R & D  For example, look at how much HP has cut back on the percentage of revenues devoted to R & D.  And the disappearance of Bell Labs and other notable research institutions.  This trend has accelerated recently, as the bad economy has led to further cuts in large company (and U.S. government) R & D spending.  But start ups are all about doing new things in new ways.  They are all about R & D in very selected areas. Hence, they become more attractive acquisition targets when larger companies are not innovating. In effect, innovation is  being “outsourced” by large companies to start ups, which are often acquired (i.e. Cisco is famous for succeeding with this corporate strategy).  More nimble, less bureacratic companies are seen as being more innovative and quicker to get their ideas to market then medium or large size companies.  

On November 30th, TiE Silicon Valley (SV) Software Special Interest Group (SIG) convened a distinguished set of panelists to address growing software markets, technologies, applications, and investment outlook for start up companies in this space.  The panel  was to adress hot software segments and issues like:

• What areas of software are ripe for investing in 2011?
• Is the recession really over for software companies?
• Which parts of IT budgets will grow? Which are likely to get cut?
• What does it take to get funded now?
• Will exit windows stay open in 2011?
• How should startups navigate the current climate?
• Technology investments in the US vs. China and India (local control vs better value for investment capital, respectively)

The TiE-SV panel session participants were as follows:

Moderator: 

Vispi Daver, Partner, Sierra Ventures

Panelists:

• Byron Deeter, Partner, BVP
• Mark Jacobsen, Managing Director, O’Reilly AlphaTech Ventures
• Mitchell Kertzman, Managing Director, Hummer Winblad Venture Partners
• Ping Li, Accel Partners

Discussion:

The hot software market segments identified were the following:

• Business Intelligence- especially real time analytics which help companies make real time business decisions
• Big Data- large scale data storage management.  At a time when it’s possible to store more data then ever before- what should be retained and where?
• Cloud Computing- especially Software as a Service (AKA Application as a Service)
• Mobile HTML5 (the next revision of HTML- the standard for structuring and presenting content on the Web) and its effect on how mobile apps will be written in the future

As this global ComSoc Community web site focuses on communications technologies, we will restrict our coverage to the latter two software segments- Cloud Computing and Mobile HTML5.

Cloud Computing:

The panelists saw huge opportunities in this space.  One stated that even Cloud Computing niches could be big markets as all heavy duty computing moves from mainframes and servers in data centers to distributed computing in the cloud (i.e. the Internet).  Here are some selected comments from the panelists:

• Application as a Service will be a massive enabler of new services.  It’s more attractive for start ups  than Infrastructure as a Service or Platform as a Service (the other two layers of the Cloud Computing architecture).
• The middle layer of management and services is intriquing.
• Large companies are going through a consolidation phase as they plan to use cloud services.
• “Pure play “cloud service providers and software companies can take cloud leadership from larger companies that have more diverse agendas and strategies.
• Cloud computing redefines software layers, with virtualization and security of utmost importance.
• Amazon is a role model as a Cloud service provider [Amazon’s Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2) is a web service that provides resizable compute capacity in the cloud. It is designed to make web-scale computing easier for developers.]
• “Virtualized desktop” could be another Cloud Computing service (no details provided).
• How to contol and maintain mobility of IT resources will be a challenge.
• Both mobile and fixed line access to the cloud will be provided, offering different capabilities and apps.

Mobile HTML5:

Background:  The HTML5 specification was adopted as the starting point of the work of the new HTML working group of the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) in 2007. This working group published the First Public Working Draft of the specification on January 22, 2008. The specification is an ongoing work, and is expected to remain so for many years, although parts of HTML5 are going to be finished and implemented in browsers before the whole specification reaches final Recommendation status late in 2010 or early 2011.

This new standard incorporates features like video playback and drag-and-drop that have been previously dependent on third-party browser plug-ins such as Adobe Flash and Microsoft Silverlight. 

Mitchell Kertzman stated that HTML5 might be a  replacement for both Adobe’s Flash and Oracle’s Java.  “HTML5 has the potential to deliver a much richer user experience.  More engaging HTML5 based apps will be offered to mobile users.”   Continuing, Mr. Kertzman said, “Programmers and (mobile app) developers will take advantage of bandwidth and generate apps that enable you to do more than you can do today.”

While the consumer software space was described as a “wild west,” it seems that HTML5 (along with the Android platform) might concentrate efforts and initiatives such that software produced will run on more devices and hence have wider applicability.

Funding Environment:

We knew that VCs make initial investments of $500K – to $10M per start up company selected after passing their due diligence screens.  What we were surprised to hear is that two of the VC panelists stated their company only made about four to six new investments per year.  That’s after receiving over 1,000 business plans from start ups during the same period of time. 

So very few new start ups are evidently being funded by VCs these days.  That’s why the Angel Investor financing model is getting a lot of traction.  Please refer to:   Highlights of Nov 15th TiE Angels meeting   http://viodi.com/2010/11/23/tie-2/

Prashant Shah, organizer of this panel session, believes the small number of start-ups funded may not be due to the sluggish economy, as many believe.  Mr. Shah made the following comment clarifying the funding environment for start-ups:

“One thought that jumps out is on your statement of how few startups are getting funded. True that it’s tough to get funding nowadays, but in reality, it has never actually been easy (with the possible exception of the dot com days). It’s always been a challenge. So the 4 to 6 fundings a year would not necessarily be a significantly larger number if the economy was better. In fact, I would argue that in a better economy the percentage of fundings would be about the same because the number of business plans would go up as well. (There is a question of how fast venture firms could scale up in better times, but that’s a discussion for another day)

My point is that sometime entrepreneurs forget when they seek VC money, they are competing for funding dollars against other startups who may be in a completely different market but represent better investment opportunities. That’s they key to getting VC money – regardless of whether they are funding 4 deals a year or 40, entrepreneurs have to demonstrate their business will generate higher ROI than anything else in the deal pipeline.”

TiECon 2010 and 2009 Conference Summary Reports:

http://viodi.com/2010/05/19/tiecon-2010-report-wireless-market-status-trends-and-future-directions/

http://viodi.com/2010/05/22/tiecon-2010-wireless-sessions-part-ii-mobile-apps-advertising/

a href=”http://viodi.com/2009/06/14/tiecon2009/” rel=”nofollow”>http://viodi.com/2009/06/14/tiecon2009/

China – the world’s largest mobile market – had 38.64 million 3G users by the end of October 2010, a threefold increase year-on-year, according to figures from the country’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) cited in a Xinhua report. Approximately 25.38 million users were new subscribers in the past year.

The number of 3G users of each of China’s top three operators – China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom – exceeded 10 million by the end of October. China Mobile had 16.98 million 3G connections as of 31 October, while China Unicom had 11.66 million. China Telecom, the country’s third-largest operator, doesn’t disclose its 3G user numbers every month but earlier said it had 9.15 million 3G users at the end of September. Interestingly, China Mobile’s 3G lead doesn’t reflect its dominance in the market overall; it has only around 5 million more 3G connections than number-two player China Unicom, but controls a huge 70 percent market share of China’s total mobile sector, according to Wireless Intelligence. However, China Mobile’s 3G rollout uses homegrown technology TD-SCDMA, compared to its rivals’ use of the global, more popular technologies W-CDMA and CDMA EV-DO. China’s 3G base now equates to around 5 percent of its total mobile market, meaning the three operators have a long road ahead of them in converting their customers to the faster mobile broadband technology. Xinhua notes that earlier this month the ministry said that China aimed to have 150 million 3G mobile users by 2011.

Business revenue of mobile telecommunications made up 69.84 percent of the total, while fixed-line revenues accounted for 30.16 percent, dropping 3.2 percentage points year on year, the MIIT said

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2010-11/26/c_13622747.htm

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Meanwhile, a recent study has concluded that 3G adoption in India will be slow. This goes contrary to the high awareness campaigns currently being doled out by service providers for their 3G offerings, and the technology’s famed capabilities to deliver broadband content.

Only one in five urban mobile subscribers would opt for 3G services in the short term, a new study by the Nielsen Company has found. It further noted that it may take as long as 8-10 years before a majority of mobile users move onto a 3G plan. The study was released by the Nielsen Company in New Delhi on Wednesday at the `Consumer 360′ conference.

However, “The response from consumers has been encouraging, though it is too early to comment on the numbers since we have launched early November,” Deepak Gulati, executive president, mobility of Tata Teleservices Ltd (TTSL) said. Tata DoCoMo, the GSM service arm of TTSL, provides 3G services in nine of out of 22 telecom circles. On early adopters of 3G, he said, “Obviously the high end customers go for it initially.”

The study found that nearly 70 per cent of urban mobile subscribers are aware of 3G services and 63 per cent were familiar with it as a concept. “While service providers have succeeded in popularising the concept and articulating its promises, consumers seem tentative about their disposition to embrace the technology” said Arjun Urs, director – Client Solutions India of Nielsen.

The study also found that the most eager group ready to adopt 3G was “Power users largely made up of working professionals and internet-savvy youth. They told Nielsen they were eager to embrace higher speeds to access the internet and download large attachments,” Urs added.

The survey noted that 36 per cent of those polled indicated a strong disposition towards 3G adoption. Not surprisingly, less tech reliant groups, showed little enthusiasm about the next wave of mobile services.

While government-owned Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd and Mahanagar Nigam Ltd have already launched their 3G services, the response to it has been rather poor, stated market observers. TTSL was the first private telecom provider to launch 3G services.

Market leader Bharti Airtel is expected to launch its 3G services in December, and Vodafone Essar is gearing up to launch its offering in January 2011, to be followed by the Aditya Birla Group-owned Idea Cellular Ltd.

http://www.tehelka.com/story_main48.asp?filename=Ws261110Mobile_telephony.asp

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The slow start expected for 3G in India comes on the heels of the much delayed 3G spectrum auctions and that country’s 2G auction scandal.  The November 24 2010 Financial Times reports that:

Mobile carriers in India have come under scrutiny this week, after a report by the national auditor concluded that the country’s telecoms ministry had sold off its 2G spectrum at a “throwaway price”, on a “first come, first serve basis”.     The report by the Comptroller and Auditor General of India estimated that undervaluations of licences allocated to domestic and foreign telecoms groups in 2008 might have cost the government a total of about $39bn in lost revenues. The report said about $8bn was lost from the excess allocation of spectrum licenses to existing wireless telecom operators.  A further $31bn was lost due to the undervalued sale of spectrum to new entrants into the market. Analysts think this is likely to have a harmful impact on one of the country’s most successful industries.

Bharti Airtel, India’s biggest telecoms group by sales, and Vodafone of the UK risk becoming the first leading companies to be targeted by the government for having been awarded more spectrum than the auditors claim they should have, without paying any upfront charges.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e302161c-f7ff-11df-8d91-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=crm/email/20101125/nbe/Telecoms/product#axzz16H86gvzu

There has been a huge public outcry over the cheap license given to new telecom firms in 2008 in a scam which cost the government `1.76 lakh crore. The Comptroller and Auditor General’s (CAG) in a report has castigated the former telecom minister, Mr A. Raja, for allocating 2G licenses to new players in a process which “ lacked transparency and appeared to have been done with the objective of favouring a few firms”.

After getting cheap licenses, these firms sold stake to foreign firms at huge valuation. This despite the fact that these new firms had no infrastructure on the ground. The government is facing heat from the opposition parties over the scam. They are demanding an investigation by the joint parliamentary committee (JPC) on the issue.

On November 14th, 2010, Mr. A Raja resigned as India’s Telecom Minister due to this 2G Scandal.  It was reported that the ruling Congress party leadership had advised Raja to step down so that parliament could function peacefully.  The opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) said Raja should be prosecuted under the provisions of the Prevention of Corruption Act and a first information report should be registered against him.  Mr. Raja is accused of causing a loss of Rs1.76tn ($40bn) to the exchequer by allocating 2G spectrum at 2001 rates.

http://hollywooddaily.us/2010/11/14/raja-resigns-as-telecom-minister-over-2g-scandal/ 

Opinion:   This author heard Mr Raja speak two years ago at the India Community Center (ICC) in Milpitas, CA.  His presentation was not at all impressive (most of it was in Tamil) and we tend to side with the BJP party regarding prosecution for his role in this fiasco.  Corruption is rampant in India and those that benefit from it must be shown that they won’t be able to get away scott free.  Economic growth will suffer if corruption by government officials is not punished.

Executive Summary

In two new reports: “Service Provider VoIP Equipment and Subscribers-third quarter (3Q10),” and “IMS Equipment and Subscribers market share and forecast,”  Infonetics Research finds that although prices have dropped, worldwide demand has risen for VoIP infrastructure hardware.  Apparently, large network transformations are driving the need for more IP-enabling products and services, including Internet Protocol Multimedia Subsystem (IMS).

While VoIP equipment shipments were up in the 3rd Q 2010, overall market revenue is decreasing despite growing demand for IP-enabling services,  Infonetics Research predicts growth for VoIP equipment, especially with products that help in the migration to all-IP systems and those focused on improving mobile services.  A key missing piece is mobile VoIP, which hasn’t happened yet despite numerous predictions from many market research firms.

According to the Infonetics’ report: “Service Provider VoIP Equipment and Subscribers,” the total service provider VoIP equipment market – including trunk media gateways, SBCs(Smart Business Communications Systems?), media servers, softswitches and voice application servers – decreased 9 percent from the second quarter to $511 million. But while revenue is down for the quarter, shipments for almost all segments in the market are up sequentially.  Worldwide, Asia Pacific is the only region expected to post year-over-year revenue growth for service provider VoIP equipment in 2010, the report noted.

The IP multimedia subsystem space, is experiencing an increase in revenue as a result of the demand for VoIP equipment, according to Infonetics’ third-quarter “IMS Equipment and Subscribers” report. The worldwide IMS equipment market, including IMS core equipment and application servers, grew 4 percent in the third quarter, on the heels of a 34 percent jump in the previous quarter.  Longer-term, the IMS market will get a boost from the push for enhanced mobile services, according to this report.

ANALYST NOTE

“The number-one story that will come out of 2010 for the IMS and carrier VoIP equipment markets is China, where conditions are driving volumes up and pushing prices down. There are large network transformation projects underway in China, so demand for equipment is very strong, but at the same time, vendors are willing to push the pricing limits to get into strategic accounts. In the third quarter of 2010, every product category except media servers was impacted by pricing pressures, so while shipments were up for most segments, total worldwide revenue took a hit. Looking at the long-term prospects, the network elements that are best poised for solid growth are those that facilitate the migration to all-IP networks, such as session border controllers (SBCs),” notes Diane Myers, directing analyst for VoIP and IMS at Infonetics Research.

Diane Myers,  Directing Analyst, VoIP & IMS Infonetics Research  (408) 583-3391   [email protected]

SERVICE PROVIDER VOIP MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

• The total service provider VoIP equipment market, including trunk media gateways, SBCs, media servers, softswitches, and voice application servers, decreased 9% from 2Q10 to 3Q10, to $511 million
• While revenue is down for the quarter, shipments for almost all segments in the market are up sequentially
• Asia Pacific is the only region expected to post year-over-year revenue growth in 2010 for service provider VoIP equipment
• In 3Q10, GENBAND leads the combined carrier VoIP and IMS equipment market for worldwide revenue

IMS MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

• The worldwide IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) equipment market, including IMS core equipment and application servers, grew 4% in 3Q10, on the heels of a 34% jump in the previous quarter
• In 3Q10, the 4 top vendors, Alcatel Lucent, Ericsson, Huawei, and Nokia Siemens Networks, continue to fight it out for new deals and replacement RFPs
  • Ericsson and Nokia Siemens saw revenue growth with CSCF in a relatively flat quarter
• Overall, the IMS equipment market is experiencing strong and healthy growth, driven in the near-term by the continued adoption of VoIP services and service provider migration of VoIP services to IMS networks
• Longer-term, the IMS market will get a boost from the push for enhanced mobile services, with LTE being the most significant driver

Top 5 VoIP and IMS Vendors by 3Q2010 Revenue are: GENBAND, Huawei, Alcatel-Lucent, Acme Packet, Metaswitch. 

This includes: combined sales of worldwide trunk media gateway, softswitch, media server, VAS (value added service) and CSCF  server market share. (CSCF=Call Session Control Function is a central component to signaling and control within the IP Multimedia Subsystem- IMS).  Interestingly, these five companies only comprise approximately 60% of sales.  The “Other” category of miscellaneous vendors accounts for about 40% of combined revenues.

About  Infonetics’ quarterly reports:

 1. Service Provider VoIP Equipment and Subscribers report provides worldwide and regional market share, market size, forecasts, and analysis for VoIP subscribers and media processing and call control carrier VoIP equipment, including high-, mid-, and low-density trunk media gateways, line access media gateways, SBCs, media servers, Class 4 and Class 5 softswitches, and voice application servers (IP Centrex/hosted IP PBX, IP trunking, and residential). Vendors tracked include Acme Packet, Alcatel-Lucent, AudioCodes, BroadSoft, Cisco, Dialogic, Ericsson, GENBAND, Huawei, Iperia, Italtel, MetaSwitch, Movius, Nokia Siemens, RadiSys Convedia, Sonus, Technicolor (Thomson), Tekelec, Xener, ZTE, and others.

2. IMS report provides worldwide and regional market size, market share, forecasts, and analysis of mobile and fixed-line IMS subscribers and equipment. Equipment tracked includes IMS voice and IM/presence application servers and IMS core equipment, including home subscriber servers (HSS), call session control function (CSCF) servers, media resource function (MRF), and breakout gateway control function (BGCF). The report includes an IMS deployment tracker by region, country, carrier, and vendor. Vendors tracked include Alcatel-Lucent, Broadsoft, Ericsson, Huawei, Mavenir, Nokia Siemens, ZTE and others.

Contact Info

If you are interested in buying an Infonetics report or discussing a consulting project? Please contact:

Larry Howard, Vice President
[email protected] +1 408.583.3335

Scott Coyne, Senior Account Director Eastern North America, Europe, Middle East
[email protected] +1 408.583.3395

www.infonetics.com

Note:  This author has no business relationship with Infonetics Research and never has.  We are pleased to inform you that Infonetics co-founder Michael Howard is an IEEE member and has spoken at our June 24 ComSocSCV-TiE workshop on Mobile Apps and Infrastructure (his topic was mobile backhaul)

2.  NIST Special Report 800-127, Guide to Securing WiMAX Wireless Communications

NIST says, WiMAX technology continues to adapt to market demands and provide enhanced user mobility. SP 800-127 discusses WiMAX wireless communication topologies, components, certifications, security features and related security concerns.

This report.recommends that organizations that have adopted WiMAX:

• Develop a robust wireless metropolitan area network security policy and enforce it;
• Assess WiMAX technical countermeasures before implementing a vendor’s WiMAX technology;
• Require mutual authentication for WiMAX devices; and
• Implement FIPS-validated encryption algorithms employing FIPS-validated cryptographic modules to protect data communications.

More at:    http://www.govinfosecurity.com/articles.php?art_id=3116

The NIST document covers the security of the WiMAX air interface and user subscriber devices, including security services for device and user authentication; data confidentiality; data integrity; and replay protection. It does not address WiMAX network system specifications, which covers core network infrastructure and are primarily employed by commercial network operators.

“Like other networking technologies, all WiMAX systems must address threats arising from denial-of-service attacks, eavesdropping, man-in-the-middle attacks, message modification and resource misappropriation,” the guidelines say.

The publication explains the basics of WiMAX, detailing the security differences among the major versions of the IEEE 802.16 standard, along with information on the security capabilities and recommendations on securing WiMax technologies.

WiMax threats consist primarily of compromises to the radio links between WiMAX nodes. These radio links can be both line-of-sight and non-line-of-sight. Line-of-sight links generally are harder to attack than non-line-of-sight links because an adversary would have to physically locate equipment between the nodes to compromise the link.

Non-line-of-sight systems provide coverage over large geographic regions, which expands the potential staging areas both for clients and adversaries.

More at:  http://gcn.com/Articles/2010/11/19/WiMAX-security-guidelines-released.aspx?p=1

Introduction:

ITU-T Focus Group on Cloud Computing (FG Cloud) was established further to ITU-T TSAG agreement at its meeting in Geneva, 8-11 February 2010 followed by ITU-T study groups and membership consultation.

The Focus Group will, from the standardization view points and within the competences of ITU-T, contribute with the telecommunication aspects, i.e., the transport via telecommunications networks, security aspects of telecommunications, service requirements, etc., in order to support services/applications of “cloud computing” making use of telecommunication networks; specifically:

• identify potential impacts on standards development and priorities for standards needed to promote and facilitate telecommunication/ICT support for cloud computing
• investigate the need for future study items for fixed and mobile networks in the scope of ITU-T
• analyze which components would benefit most from interoperability and standardization
• familiarize ITU-T and standardization communities with emerging attributes and challenges of telecommunication/ICT support for cloud computing
• analyze the rate of change for cloud computing attributes, functions and features for the purpose of assessing the appropriate timing of standardization of telecommunication/ICT in support of cloud computing

The Focus Group will collaborate with worldwide cloud computing communities (e.g., research institutes, forums, academia) including other SDOs and consortia.

ITU-T TSAG is the parent group of this Focus Group.

Next Meeting: The third meeting of the FG Cloud is scheduled to take place at the France Telecom Orange premises in Lannion, France, from 30 November to 3 December 2010 inclusive, at the kind invitation of France Telecom Orange, France.

The items for discussion at the meeting will be made available on the Focus Group web page:
http://www.itu.int/ITU-T/focusgroups/cloud/. Additional information related to the meeting as well as the contributions received will also be made available on the Focus Group web page.

The official meeting announcement, information and on line registration may be accessed from: 

http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-T/focusgroups/cloud/Pages/Default.aspx

Output documents from previous meeting:

Introduction to the cloud ecosystem: definitions, taxonomies, use cases, high level requirements and capabilities.

The scope of this deliverable is to provide an introduction to the Cloud ecosystems, focusing on integration and support of Cloud Computing model and technologies in telecommunication ecosystems. The major changes of this version include the addition of the value proposition and requirements and capabilities clauses according to the agreements reached in FG Cloud#2 meeting.

Functional requirements and reference architecture

The scope of this deliverable is to define the functional requirement and reference architecture of cloud computing, which includes the functional architecture, functional entities and reference points.

Overview of SDOs involved in cloud computing

The scope of this document is to provide an overview of SDOs; to map the FG cloud working group and output documents to these SDOs; and to be as a base to produce a gap analysis that will result in a unique areas that can be under the ITU-T purview, specifically from telecom perspective.

Cloud security, threat & requirements

Discussion of “Security Cloud” has started to review activities of other SDOs (CSA, DMTF, CloudAudit, NIST, GICTF, etc) which are related Cloud Security. After the reviews of the existing activities, the FG Cloud tentatively identified security threats from the standpoints of Cloud user and Cloud service provider. Considering the identified security threats, the FG Cloud also discussed security requirements to be considered for Cloud Computing Technology. The current security threats and requirements are not exhausted enough and further studies for threats and requirements are required based on the output (cloud-o-0013) from this meeting.

Infrastructure and network enabled cloud

Position existing network infrastructure capability is a unique opportunity for service providers to provide bundled offers combining Network and IT resources. In addition, service providers can leverage their network asset to address network availability and performance for secure end to end cloud services. Another opportunity for service providers is to evolve network resource allocation and control to more dynamic in order to meet the needs to provision on-demand cloud services. Major progress: A skeleton document is created per the scope, and some of the contributions are consolidated into the document.

FG Cloud work plan:

References:

ITU Cloud Computing Focus group and IEEE Cloud Computing Standards Study Group- will they fill the standards void?

https://techblog.comsoc.org/2010/05/28/itu-cloud-computing-focus-group-and-ieee-cloud-computing-standards-study-group-will-they-fill-the-standards-void

Cloud Computing: Impact on IT Architecture, Data Centers and the Network: July 14th IEEE ComSocSCV meeting
https://techblog.comsoc.org/2010/06/25/cloud-computing-impact-on-it-architecture-data-centers-and-the-network-july-14th-ieee-comsocscv-meeting

http://www.ewh.ieee.org/r6/scv/comsoc/ComSoc_2010_Presentations.php (scroll down to July 14 meeting for the pdfs from MSFT, Ericsson, VMWare and Juniper Networks)

Cloud Leadership Forum: IT Executives Share Experiences and Articulate What’s Needed for Cloud Computing Success
http://viodi.com/2010/06/18/cloud-leadership-forum-it-executives-share-experiences-and-articulate-whats-needed-for-cloud-computing-success/

The need for a Unified Set of Cloud Computing Standards within IEEE
https://techblog.comsoc.org/2010/03/26/the-need-for-a-unified-set-of-cloud-computing-standards-within-ieee

Top Coverage Highlights from Cloud Connect Conference (my article listed 3rd)
http://www.cloudconnectevent.com/2010/in-the-news.php

New ITU-T Focus Group May Set Framework for Cloud Computing
http://viodi.com/2010/05/25/new-itu-t-focus-group-may-set-framework-for-on-cloud-computing/
 
ACLU Northern CA: Cloud Computing- Storm Warning for Privacy
http://viodi.com/2009/02/13/aclu-northern-ca-cloud-computing-storm-warning-for-privacy/

• collect and identify visions of future networks, based on new technologies,
• assess the interactions between future networks and new services,
• familiarize ITU-T and standardization communities with emerging attributes of future networks, and
• encourage collaboration between ITU-T and FN communities.

• gather new ideas relevant to Future Networks and identify potential study areas on Future Networks,
• describe visions of the Future Networks,
• identify a timeframe of Future Networks,
• identify potential impacts on standards development, and
• suggest future ITU-T study items and related actions.

These days, any COMSOC member can learn various topics from online resources such as digital library, tutorials now, and industry now, besides You-Tube and IEEE TV. The question is why should IEEE members take time for commuting to a local chapter meeting if they can get the same content with a more professional delivery method online at comfort of their office or home. Can we offer services and values that will attract members to local chapter events? Which paramets are more important? Topic? Or networking opportunities? Or may be speaker? Can we combine online and local activities to provide even more benefits for our members? I will be eagerly waiting to see what you think. Post your comments and thoughts here in this blog.

ComSocSCV Meeting Report:  40/100 Gigabit Ethernet – Market Needs, Applications, and Standards

Introduction

At its October 13, 2010 meeting, IEEE ComSocSCV was most fortunate to have three subject matter experts present and discuss 40G/100G Ethernet- the first dual speed IEEE 802.3 Ethernet standard.  The market drivers, targeted applications, architectecture and overview of the the recently ratified IEEE 802.3ba standard, and the important PHY layer were all explored in detail.  A lively panel discussion followed the three presentations, In addtion to pre-planned questions from the moderator (ComSocSCV Emerging Applications Director Prasanta De), there were many relevent questions from the audience.  Of the 74 meeting attendees, 52 were IEEE members.

The presentation titles and speakers were as follows:

1. Ethernet’s Next Evolution – 40GbE and 100GbE by John D’Ambrosia of Force10 Networks

2. The IEEE Std 802.3ba-2010 40Gb/s and 100Gb/s Architecture by Ilango Ganga of Intel Corp

3. Physical Layer (PCS/PMA) Overview by Mark Gustlin of Cisco Systems

Note:  All three presentation pdf’s may be downloaded from the IEEE ComSocSCV web site – 2010 Meeting Archives section (http://www.ewh.ieee.org/r6/scv/comsoc/ComSoc_2010_Presentations.php)

Summary of Presentations 

1.  The IEEE 802.3ba standard was ratified on June 17, 2010 after several years of hard work.  What drove the market need for this standard?  According to John D’Ambrosia, the “bandwidth explosion” has created bottlenecks eveywhere.  In particular, Increased number of users, faster access rates and methods, new video based services have created the need for higher speeds in the core network.  Mr D’Ambrosia stated,  “IEEE 802.3ba standard for  40G/ 100G Ethernet will eliminate these bottlenecks by providing a robust, scalable architecture for meeting current bandwidth requirements and laying a solid foundation for future Ethernet speed increases.”   John sees 40G/ 100G Ethernet as an enabler of many new network architectures and high bandwidth/ low latencey applications.

Three such core networks were seen as likely candidates for higher speed Ethernet penetration: campus/ enterprise, data center, and service provider networks  John showed many illustrative graphs that corroborated the need for higher speeds in each of these application areas.  The “Many Roles and Options for Ethernet Interconnects (in the Data Center),”  “Ethernet 802.3 Umbrella,” and “Looking Ahead -Growing the 40GbE / 100GbE Family” charts were especially enlightening.  We were surprised to learn of the breadth and depth of the 40G/100G Ethernet standard, which can be used to reduce the number of links for: Chip-to-Chip / Modules, Backplane, Twin Ax, Twisted Pair (Data Center), MMF, SMF.  This also improves energy efficiency according to Mr. D’Ambrosia.

Looking Beyond 100GbE,  John noted that the industry is being challenged on two fronts: Low cost, high density 100GbE and the Next Rate of Ethernet (?).  To be sure, the IEEE 802.3ba Task Force co-operated with ITU-T Study Group 15 to ensure the new 40G/ 100G  Ethernet rates are transportable over optical transport networks (i.e. the OTN),  But what about higher fiber optic data rates?  Mr. Ambrosia identified the key higher speed market drivers as Data Centers, Internet Exchanges, Carrier’s Optical Backbone Networks.  He predicted that the economics of the application will dictate the solution.

2.  Ilango Ganga presented an Overview of the IEEE 802.3ba standard, which has the following characteristics:

• Addresses the needs of computing, network aggregation and core networking applications
• Uses a Common architecture for both 40 Gb/s and 100 Gb/s Ethernet
• Uses IEEE 802.3 Ethernet MAC frame format
• The architecture is flexible and scalable
• Leverages existing 10 Gb/s technology where possible
• Defines physical layer technologies for backplane, copper cable assembly and optical fiber medium

Mr. Ganga noted there were several sublayers that comprise the IEEE 802.3ba standard:

• MAC  (Medium Access Control) –Data Encapsulation, Ethernet framing, addressing, error detection (e.g. CRC).  The term “Medium Access Control” is a carryover from the days when Ethernet used CSMA/CD to transmit on a shared medium.  Today, most all Ethernet MACs just use the Ethernet frame format and operate over non shared point to point physical media.
• RS (Reconciliation sublayer) – converts the MAC serial data stream to the parallel data paths of XLGMII (40 Gb/s) or CGMII (100 Gb/s).  It also provides alignment at the beginning frame, while maintaining total MAC transmit IPG
• 40GBASE-R and 100GBASE-R PCS (Physical Coding sublayer) – Encodes 64 bit data & 8 bit control of XLGMII or CGMII to 66 bit code groups for communication with 40GBASE-R and 100GBASE-R PMA (64B/66B encoding).  Distributes data to multiple physical lanes, provides lane alignment and deskew (due to different receiver arrival times of signals on each lane).  There’s also a Management interface to control and report status
• Forward Error Correction (FEC) sublayer – Optional sublayer for 40GBASE-R and 100GBASE-R to improve the BER performance of copper and backplane PHYs.  FEC operates on a per PCS lane basis at a rate of 10.3125 GBd for 40G and 5.15625 GBd for 100G
• 40GBASE-R and 100GBASE-R PMA (Physical Medium Attachment) –  Adapts PCS to a range of PMDs.  Provides: bit level multiplexing or mapping from n lane to m lanes;  clock and data recovery; optional loopback and test pattern geneneration/checking functions
• 40GBASE-R and 100GBASE-R PMD (Physical Medium Dependent) –  Interfaces to various transmission medium (e.g., backplane, copper or optical fiber medium)/  Transmission/reception of data streams to/from the underlying wireline physical medium.  Provides signal detect and fault function to detect fault conditions.  There are different PMDs for each of the two speeds (40G and 100G bits/sec)

            -40G PMDs:  40GBASE-KR4, 40GBASE-CR4, 40GBASE-SR4, 40GBASE-LR4  

            -100G PMDs: 100GBASE-CR10, 100GBASE-SR10, 100GBASE-LR4, 100GBASE-ER4

• Auto-Negotiation –  used for copper and backplane PHYs to detect the capabilities of the link partners and configure the link to the appropriate mode.  Allows FEC capability negotiation, and provides parallel detection capability to detect legacy PHYs
• Management interface – Uses the optional MDIO/MDC management data interface specified for management of 40G and 100G Ethernet Physical layer devices

These were illustrated for both 40G and 100G Ethernet with several layer diagrams showing each functional block and inter- sublayer interfaces.  For the electrical interfaces, both Chip- to -Chip or Chip- to- Module electrical specifications might be implemented.  It was noted that PMD specification definesthe MDI electrical characteristics.  Next, 40G and 100 G Ethernet functional block diagram implementation examples were shown.  Finally, Ilango identified two future standards related to IEEE Std 802.3ba:

• IEEE P802.3bg task force is developing a std for 40 Gb/s serial single mode fiber PMD
• 100 Gb/s backplane and copper cable assemblies Call For Interest scheduled for Nov’10

3.  Mark Gustin explained the all important PHY layer, which is the heart of the 802.3ba standard.  The two key PHY sublayers are the  PCS = Physical Coding Sublayer and the PMA = Physical Medium Attachment.

• The PCS performs the following functions:  Delineates Ethernet frames.  Supports the transport of fault information. Provides the data transitions which are needed for clock recovery on SerDes and optical interfaces. It bonds multiple lanes together through a striping/distribution mechanism. Supports data reassembly in the receive PCS – even in the face of significant parallel skew and with multiple multiplexing locations
• The PMA performs the following functions: Bit level multiplexing from M lanes to N lanes. Clock recovery, clock generation and data drivers.  Loopbacks and test pattern generation and detection

Mark drilled down to detail important multi-lane PHY functions of transmit data striping and receiver data alignment.  These mechanisms are necessary because all 40G/ 100G Ethernet PMDs have multiple physical paths or “lanes.”  These are either multiple fibers, coax cables, wavelengths or backplane traces.  Individual bit rates of 10.3125 Gb/s or 25.78125 Gb/s (new PMD will have a rate of 41.25 Gb/s).  Module interfaces are also multiple lanes, which are not always the same number of lanes as the PMD interface.  Therefore the PCS must support a mechanism to distribute data to multiple lanes on the transmit side, and then reassemble the data in the face of skew on the receiver side before passing up to the MAC sublayer.

Like Ilango, Mark touched on the topic of higher speed (than 100G) Ethernet.   He speculated that the next higher speed might be 400 Gb/s, or even 1Tb/s?  Mr. Gustin opined that it was too early to tell.  He noted that the IEEE 802.3ba architecture is designed to be scaleable.  In the future, it can support higher data rates by increasing the bandwidth per PCS lane and the number of PCS lanes.  He suggested that for 400 Gb/s, the architecture could be 16 lanes @25 Gb/s for example, with the same block distribution and alignment marker methodology.   Mark summed up by reminding us that the 40G/100G Ethernet standard supports an evolution of optics and electrical interfaces (for example, a new Single-mode PMD will not need a change to the PCS), and that the same architecture (sublayers and interface between them) can support future faster Ethernet speeds.

Panel Discussion/ Audience Q and A Session 

The ensuing panel session covered 40G/ 100G Ethernet market segments, applications (data center, Internet exchanges, WAN aggregation on the backbone, campus/enterprise, etc),competing technologies (e.g. Infiniband for the data center), timing of implementations (e.g. on servers, switches, network controllers. There were also a few technical questions for clarification and research related to single lane high speed links.  It was noted by this author that almost 10 years after standardization, servers in the data center only recently have included 10G Ethernet port interfaces while 10G Ethernet switches only now can switch multiple ports at wire-line rates.  So how long will it take for 40G/ 100G Ethernet to be widely deployed in its targeted markets?  The panelists concurred that more and more traffic is being aggregated onto 10G Ethernet links and that will drive the need for 40G Ethernet in the data center.  Mark Gustin said, “100GE is needed today for uplinks in various layers of the network.”. But the timing is uncertain. Higher speed uplinks on Ethernet switches, high performance data centers (e.g. Google), Internet exchanges, wide area network aggregation, and box to box communications were seen as the first real markets for 40G/ 100G Ethernet.  Each market segment/ application area will evolve at its own pace, but for sure the 40G/ 100G Ethernet standard will be an enabler of all of them.

The final question was asked by former IEEE 802.3 Chair, Geoff Thompson.  Geoff first noted that 40G/ 100 G Ethernet standard and all the higher speed Ethernet studies being worked in IEEE 802.3 are for the core enterprise or carrier backbone network.  He then asked the panelists when would there be big enough technological advances in the access or edge network to enable higher speeds there, i,e, the on ramps/ off ranps to the core network.  The panelists could not answer this question as it was too far from their areas of expertise.  In particular, nothing was said about the very slow- to- improve telco wireline access network (DSL or fiber) and the need to build out fiber closer to the business and residential customers to achieve higher access rates.  Nonetheless, the audience was very pleased to learn the 802.3ba architecture was scalable and seems to be future proof for higher speed Ethernet.

Author Notes on 40G/ 100G Ethernet Market: 

• The 802.3ba standard also complements efforts aimed at delivering greater broadband access.  An example is the Federal Communication Commission’s “Connecting America” National Broadband Plan, which calls for 100 M bit/sec access for a minimum of 100 million homes across the U.S.  If that were to happen, higher speed optical links would be needed between telco central offices and in the core and backbone networks.
• We think that this standard will accelerate the adoption of 10G Ethernet now that higher-speed 40G/100G pipes are available to aggregate scores of 10G Ethernet links. By simplifying current link aggregation schemes, it will provide concrete benefits such as lowered operating expense costs and improved energy efficiencies.
• Key stakeholders for IEEE 802.3ba will include users as well as makers of systems and components for servers, network storage, networking systems, high-performance computing, data centers.  Telecommunications carriers, and multiple system operators (MSOs) should also benefit as they can offer much better cost/ performance to their customers.

References:

1.  For further discussion and comments on 40G/ 100 G Ethernet, such as server virtualization and converged networks driving the need for higher network data rates, please refer to this article: When will 40G/100G Ethernet be a real market? https://techblog.comsoc.org/2010/09/09/when-will-40g100g-ethernet-be-a-r…

2.  IEEE ComSocSCV web site – 2010 Meeting Archives section (http://www.ewh.ieee.org/r6/scv/comsoc/ComSoc_2010_Presentations.php) for presentation slides.