Nokia Report: 5G will add $8T to global GDP by 2030; Barriers to Adoption & Catalysts Noted

In a just released 5G Readiness report commissioned by Nokia, market research firm Sapio surveyed 1,628 technology purchasing decision-makers in eight markets and across six industry sectors to get a broad sense of how professionals believe 5G is going to affect their business.

The markets (and participants) surveyed were as follows: Australia (203), Finland (200), Germany (203), Japan (203), Saudi Arabia (202), South Korea (200), UK (207), US (210).
The sectors were: energy and utilities (208 responses), mining (119), manufacturing (455), public sector (271), healthcare (445), transportation (130). Respondents from companies of less than 250 employees were only permitted for energy and utilities and mining companies.

The grand summary of this extensive survey and extrapolating exercise is that Nokia now forecasts 5G will add $8 trillion to global GDP by 2030. A key message is that a lot of technological progress over the next decade will depend on 5G. That remains to be seen, especially in light of the lack of standards for the non radio aspects of 5G and the ultimate number of 5G Radio Interface Technologies to be included in the 2nd version of IMT 2020.SPECS, sometime in 2021.

On average, whilst the importance of 5G adoption is well understood, a significant investment gap remains. 86% of decision makers said they have some kind of strategy for 5G, and over a third fear being outpaced by the competition should they not invest in 5G in the next 3 years. However, only 15% are currently investing in its implementation, and over a quarter (29%) of businesses are not planning any 5G investment in the next 5 years.

Image Credit: Nokia

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The report breaks down the findings by country and also looks at specific events like the COVID-19 pandemic. How literally to take all these extrapolations from a company with a vested interest in driving the market is down to the individual, but at the very least it provides a good snapshot of industry expectations. Here are a few survey results:

43% of global technology decision makers have increased their overall investment in their strategic technology planning. This represents a 27% net increase in the number of budgets that have increased.
In the U.S., additional costs (44%), disrupted timelines (42%) and the emergence of new technology gaps (38%) have been the most prevalent impacts of COVID-19 on technology road maps.
41% have C-Level sponsor for 5G implementation in their organization. 25% don’t have any 5G championing from management (23%).
Businesses are more likely to feel that their industry is middling in terms of 5G adoption, with 20% setting a high benchmark.
43% of technology decision makers have a long term 5G strategy. Just over 1 in 10 have no strategy whatsoever (11%)
Over a third fear being outpaced by the competition should they not invest in 5G, while 27% feel whatever their 5G investment they will still be successful.

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5G Investment Plans (SOURCE: Nokia):

Barriers to 5G adoption:

The gap between enterprise awareness of 5G’s benefits and current levels of adoption suggests there are notable barriers to implementation. The research identified five principal barriers to 5G adoption for:

Ecosystem availability: Limited availability of key infrastructure outside urban centers was cited by 28% of decision-makers.
Education and understanding: 17% said a key barrier is that decision-makers within their business do not understand 5G, while 14% said they don’t know enough about it themselves.
Awareness: Over a fifth of technology buyers (22%) said that 5G implementation is not a current priority for their business.
Cost and complexity: 15% said they were not confident their company would be able to implement the necessary technologies.
Security: Over a third (34%) said that they are concerned about the security of 5G.

Quotes:

“As organizations across the world move faster towards deployment of 5G enabled technologies, those who wish to be the first to leverage its potential cannot afford to lose more time,” said Gabriela Styf Sjöman, Chief Strategy Officer at Nokia. “To capture the tremendous opportunities of 5G, organizations must start or intensify their planning now and accelerate business model innovation to remain competitive in a rapidly digitalizing global economy. Beyond investment in the technology itself, this will require digitalizing operations, processes and ways of working to capture the full potential of 5G.

“5G adoption is categorically shown to fuel business success. Organizations that have integrated 5G stand to benefit from advantages that go way beyond faster, more efficient and reliable network services. As 5G enables businesses to transform, it will also accelerate wider technological and economic trends, with unimaginable possibilities for global economies and societies.

“The cities, hospitals and factories of the future depend on 5G and the unparalleled ability it offers to move, process and store vast volumes of data. Moreover, the biggest challenges we face as a society – from climate change to the pandemic – can be better tackled through at-scale use of the data and technologies that 5G will unleash.”

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5G Catalysts:

The report identifies three key catalysts for change in order to bring about improved understanding, confidence and ultimately adoption of 5G. These are: improved regulation, collaboration and willingness to innovate.

A third of technology buyers said that government investment in infrastructure or subsidies to drive down costs would encourage them to invest more in 5G. Enterprises will not adopt 5G unless the supply from network operators is presented and priced appropriately, which in turn relies on governments and regulators making 5G spectrum in low, mid and high bands available and affordable.
The lack of understanding that exists within some businesses around 5G must be directly addressed. Companies and consumers alike need more information about the technology and how it can both improve operations and solve real world problems, ranging from enterprise use cases to telehealth to green technology.
As companies better understand 5G, they must boldly move to overhaul their operations to accommodate it, for example, exploring how they could use 5G to streamline and more effectively monitor their mobile workforce, fleet or supply chain.

References:

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/10/11/2106580/0/en/Nokia-5G-set-to-add-8trn-to-global-GDP-by-2030.html

https://www.nokia.com/networks/5g/readiness-report/

https://www.nokia.com/networks/5g/readiness-report/about-this-report/

https://onestore.nokia.com/asset/210070?_ga=2.168806049.1042908821.1602549124-1767387886.1601396220