China gaining on U.S. in AI technology arms race- silicon, models and research
Introduction:
According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. maintains its early lead in AI technology with Silicon Valley home to the most popular AI models and the most powerful AI chips (from Santa Clara based Nvidia and AMD). However, China has shown a willingness to spend whatever it takes to take the lead in AI models and silicon.
The rising popularity of DeepSeek, the Chinese AI startup, has buoyed Beijing’s hopes that it can become more self-sufficient. Huawei has published several papers this year detailing how its researchers used its homegrown AI chips to build large language models without relying on American technology.
“China is obviously making progress in hardening its AI and computing ecosystem,” said Michael Frank, founder of think tank Seldon Strategies.
AI Silicon:
Morgan Stanley analysts forecast that China will have 82% of AI chips from domestic makers by 2027, up from 34% in 2024. China’s government has played an important role, funding new chip initiatives and other projects. In July, the local government in Shenzhen, where Huawei is based, said it was raising around $700 million to invest in strengthening an “independent and controllable” semiconductor supply chain.
During a meeting with President Xi Jinping in February, Huawei Chief Executive Officer Ren Zhengfei told Xi about “Project Spare Tire,” an effort by Huawei and 2,000 other enterprises to help China’s semiconductor sector achieve a self-sufficiency rate of 70% by 2028, according to people familiar with the meeting.
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AI Models:
Prodded by Beijing, Chinese financial institutions, state-owned companies and government agencies have rushed to deploy Chinese-made AI models, including DeepSeek [1.] and Alibaba’s Qwen. That has fueled demand for homegrown AI technologies and fostered domestic supply chains.
Note 1. DeepSeek’s V3 large language model matched many performance benchmarks of rival AI programs developed in the U.S. at a fraction of the cost. DeepSeek’s open-weight models have been integrated into many hospitals in China for various medical applications.
In recent weeks, a flurry of Chinese companies have flooded the market with open-source AI models, many of which are claiming to surpass DeepSeek’s performance in certain use cases. Open source models are freely accessible for modification and deployment.
The Chinese government is actively supporting AI development through funding and policy initiatives, including promoting the use of Chinese-made AI models in various sectors.
Meanwhile, OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman said his company had pushed back the release of its open-source AI model indefinitely for further safety testing.
AI Research:
China has taken a commanding lead in the exploding field of artificial intelligence (AI) research, despite U.S. restrictions on exporting key computing chips to its rival, finds a new report.
The analysis of the proprietary Dimensions database, released yesterday, finds that the number of AI-related research papers has grown from less than 8500 published in 2000 to more than 57,000 in 2024. In 2000, China-based scholars produced just 671 AI papers, but in 2024 their 23,695 AI-related publications topped the combined output of the United States (6378), the United Kingdom (2747), and the European Union (10,055).
“U.S. influence in AI research is declining, with China now dominating,” Daniel Hook, CEO of Digital Science, which owns the Dimensions database, writes in the report DeepSeek and the New Geopolitics of AI: China’s ascent to research pre-eminence in AI.
In 2024, China’s researchers filed 35,423 AI-related patent applications, more than 13 times the 2678 patents filed in total by the U.S., the U.K., Canada, Japan, and South Korea.
References:
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/how-china-is-girding-for-an-ai-battle-with-the-u-s-5b23af51
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