India’s 5G may lag due to low telecom infrastructure growth rate and insufficient fiber for backhaul

by Muntazir Abbas (edited by Alan J Weissberger) from Economic Times:

India’s 5G ambition may be thwarted as mobile infrastructure expansion is likely to remain low-paced following policy bottlenecks in the federal governance structure.  Add to that India’s weak fiberization, which is mandatory for high-speed wireless network backhaul.

The country’s existing telecom infrastructure catering to a billion active subscribers may require rapid expansion, but the absence of clarity on active network sharing, distributed right-of-way norms and thin fibre penetration, may not bring 2020 a true 5G year.

The Narendra Modi-led government is eyeing to make 5G services commercially available by next year after soon-to-start field trials which would be followed by a mega spectrum sale with 275 Mhz of airwaves earmarked for the newer technology.

Plagued with high debt, the telco incumbents  Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel, have not made much network investments over the past few years.  In a constrained scenario, sharing of active and passive networks assume much significance.

The Tower and Infrastructure Providers Association (Taipa) Director General Tilak Raj Dua says, “In order to make 5G a success story in India, it is essential to invest on network densification heavily through provisioning of fiber, small cells and mobile towers.”  Taipa represents telecom infrastructure companies in the country.

The India Department of Telecommunications (DoT), over the past few years, has apparently not been able to bring telecom tower companies to mainstream despite their ever-growing role in India’s digital service delivery.

The much-sought ‘infrastructure status’ accorded to the sector in 2012, has not materialised so far with firms seeking the Narendra Modi government to bring about radical reforms before the 5G make a debut.

Fiberization— A must do

Fibre-based backhaul is still in infancy in India. Industry’s assessment suggests that India’s robust 5G network would require 100 million fibre kilometres (m fkm) optic-fibre cable a year which has been growing at merely a rate of nearly 25 mfkm a year currently.

The government has recognized it as the strategic element for a high-speed data network, and has put a huge thrust and aims to increase fibre footprint to five fold or 7.5 million kilometres by 2022, from the current 1.5 million kilometers. In addition, the national policy aims to fiberise at least 60% of telecom towers by 2022, eventually accelerating migration to 5G.

“Achieving such speeds make fiber connectivity essential. India’s high population density also translates into deeper and denser fiber network,” ratings agency ICRA in its finding said, adding that the country has about 500,000 towers of which only 22% are fiberised as against 80% in China.

Earlier, telecom secretary Aruna Sundararajan said that that the department would want to benchmark how much fibre is being deployed every day to achieve 4G and 5G, and it has to become a national priority, and added that if the industry ever wants to take 5G to the villages without fibre, it would not happen, as fiberisation remains a key driver.

State-run Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL) that has the largest fibre base of up to 8 lakh kilometres is considering to lease out dark fibre to private players in a run up to 5G rollout that according to analysts would help operators cut Capex by leveraging state telco’s infrastructure as per need basis.

ICRA estimates the present market value of fiber assets owned by major private telecom operators stand at nearly Rs 1.25 lakh crore, with the extent of fiber rollout over the next few years would require investments of Rs 2.5 lakh crore to 3 lakh crore and sharing of fiber among multiple telcos would be the driver for a reasonable return on capital.

“5G rollout is the biggest driver for all major investment into fibre infrastructure in next five years. The next generation of technology’s performance will be dependent on the overflow of content to and from data centres,” Sandeep Aggarwal, Managing Director of Paramount Communications said, and added that the only medium capable of meeting these demands is fiber which will need to be available at every nook and corner of the country.

The government, in a recently-unveiled national policy also talked about setting up of a National Fibre Authority (NFA), but ironically there has been a dismal activity so far to take the ambitious vision forward.

The challenges, from the fibre standpoint, however, continue to remain making the 5G ride not so smooth with fibre companies together with telecom carriers seeking the Narendra Modi-led government to accelerate efforts and carve out an incentive regime.

Reliance Jio, a pure-play 4G operator that has up its ante in fibre deployment for the ambitious fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) offering dubbed as JioGigaFiber said that that to incentivise telcos, the department should draw out incentives so that operators are not challenged to deliver on fiber which is a critical element for India’s digital growth.

Earlier, Mumbai-based Jio chief Mathew Oommen said that, “service providers should use incentives for creating a deeper fiber with the redundancy of routes,” and believes that incentives should be in the form of “conducive policy to attract more investments in building fibre infrastructure” by telcos.

“5G is an interesting initiative. There is still a lag in fiber deployments in remote locations. We have learnt how to roll out fiber throughout the country, and modern technologies aligned to 5G is also one of the important factors,” R&M chairman Hans Hess told ETT.

“5G needs fiber highways and tower fiberisation is essential to be accelerated and the establishment of National Fiber Authority similar to the National Highway Authority or NHAI. These aim towards a significant portion to be invested in fibre roll out,” Sterlite Technologies Limited (STL) Group CEO Anand Agarwal told ETT.

Company’s top executive said that the national policy has accorded fibre the status of a public utility, and since fibre is essential for both wireline and wireless networks, a greater level of confidence in fibre investment was much needed.

R&M’s Hess seconded Agarwal’s views, adding that a robust fibre-based backbone would be a vital element for a network of next generation of networks.

“There would be an increase in consumption of data due to the Internet of Things (IoT) proliferation. In order to produce more data faster, a strong backbone is needed that can be built on fiber,” the Swiss company’s executive added.

“5G technology will also require a multi-fold increase in small cells deployment, with each small cell having backhaul on fibre. We are woefully inadequate in terms of optic-fibre cable density both in urban and rural areas and a special focus for its densification in a time bound manner is essential for 5G deployments,” Agarwal added.

India’s fiber coverage in kilometre per capita works out to 0.09, which is far behind 0.87 for China and more than 1.3 for the United States and Japan, according to ICRA.

The Gurugram-based firm believes that fiber density in India would have to increase at least four-fold, and that would also mean that it would evolve as a separate industry in some time, similar to the telecom tower segment in the past two decades.

Active network sharing— Do it now

The 5G, based on low latency technology, requires a dense network to seamlessly deliver Internet connectivity enabled through a telecom infrastructure such as in-building solutions, small cells, fiber and fiberised mobile towers.

In a view to ease out financially-stressed operators, the government, in the policy has envisaged active network sharing that would allow telcos to share their networks and thereby reducing their capital (Capex) as well as operational (Opex) investment. Currently, the contours of the new regime are under a discussion stage together with the department and industry, and is expected to bring much respite to 5G rollouts.

The national policy, however, talks about encouraging sharing of active infrastructure by enhancing the scope of Infrastructure Providers (IP) and promoting deployment with incentives for common sharable, passive as well as active infrastructure.

“This (active network sharing) should be done in a more structured manner. All telecom service providers should make active sharing as freely as possible that could also help them reduce Capex as well as Opex in a scenario where margins are thin,” BSNL Chairman Anupam Shrivastava said.

Shrivastava further said that it would be going to help all service providers, and added that BSNL was offering its network for sharing and the same was expected from other operators.

Sector watchdog Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai), in one of its whitepaper estimates the savings on account of active infrastructure sharing to the extent of 25-35% in Opex and 33-35% in Capex.

Network sharing, according to industry analysts, can significantly bring down 5G networks rollout as well as maintenance cost. New York-based McKinsey & Company in its finding has estimated the cost reduction of up to 40% — with major savings in rollout of small cells.

Current telecom infrastructure growth rate may play spoilsport to India’s 5G party5G network, according to Taipa’s director general Dua, will enable a new set of applications such as the connected devices and cars which could become a reality only if the coverage becomes ubiquitous.

In order to have a pervasive 5G and for contiguous operations, there would have to be mushrooming of small cells over a city. Infrastructure providers can play a vital role in faster deployment of small cells that comes with a huge investment and thus support telcos to save on Capex and Opex,” he added.

Telecom carriers with 5G ambitions would be able to leverage 4G unified license (UL) coverage through dual connectivity or UL-sharing and would be able to cover larger areas with the same number of sites. 5G coverage compared to 4G coverage using 1800 MHz (megahertz) spectrum band would be about 60%.

A greenfield 5G operator, according to Taipa estimates, would need to deploy about 66% more sites to compensate for penetration losses.

Right-of-way— Not so right

The industry, demanding ease in Right-of-Way (RoW) rules, has been under continuous discussions with the regulator as well as policymakers for shaping up a comprehensive ‘dig-once’ common duct policy framework that according to the industry would help in the proliferation of 5G infrastructure across the country.

The next generation technologies are shaping the world economies and the smart cities would be built on a fibre-centric network for enabling ubiquitous and seamless connectivity. Trai is expected to come out with a policy enabling ‘common duct’ that would take telecom infrastructure to a next-level of growth.

In the last two years, post industry’s continuous rigorous follow-ups, only 13 states have to some extent aligned their policies with the Centre’s RoW rules notified in November 2016, according to Taipa.

“There is an urgent need for the states to align their telecom infrastructure policies with the Indian Telegraph Right of Way Rules to facilitate deployment of mobile infrastructure and connect the unconnected,” Dua added.

Deployment of small cells is significant for a proliferation 5G in India, the network rollout would have to be facilitated through enabling policies, which, according to the group, should include mandatory provisions for small cells at government lands and premises with new business models to excite municipal corporations and state governments.

The infrastructure providers such as Bharti Infratel, ATC Corporation and GTL Infrastructure demand a uniform RoW charges and single-window clearances nationwide to facilitate the telecom infrastructure for the digital delivery of services as envisaged by the Centre.

https://telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/current-telecom-infrastructure-growth-rate-may-play-spoilsport-to-indias-5g-party/69596900

 

 

11 thoughts on “India’s 5G may lag due to low telecom infrastructure growth rate and insufficient fiber for backhaul

  1. COAI – Price of 5G spectrum in India 30-40 pc higher than global rates:
    A day after the government announced its intention to hold spectrum auctions in the current year, industry body COAI said that the recommended base price of 5G radiowaves is nearly 30-40 per cent higher than the rates in markets like South Korea and the US.

    “Majority of our operators have indicated that 5G spectrum is far too prohibitively expensive and that their balance sheets can’t afford this,” Cellular Operators’ Association of India (COAI) Director General, Rajan Mathews told reporters on the sidelines of 5G spectrum policy workshop organised by the industry body Tuesday.

    https://telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/price-of-5g-spectrum-in-india-30-40-pc-higher-than-global-rates-coai/69649360

  2. Indian mobile carriers are apparently finding it hard to come out with relevant use cases for the fifth-generation or 5G technology making the government-backed commercial rollout gloomy as envisaged for 2020.

    “5G is not a mass technology, at least immediately. The next generation of technology is more inclined towards business customers which are shying away from it, making telco’s potential business opportunity in limbo,” a top executive of the country’s leading telco said.

    Since 2016, the Narendra Modi-led government has shown much enthusiasm and is not leaving any stone unturned with empowering the AJ Paulraj-headed 5G high-level forum and sub-committees for a healthy dialogue between the industry and government, as well as identifying the bottlenecks for a robust 5G roadmap.

    https://telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/indian-telcos-grapple-with-5g-use-cases/70380348

  3. Vodafone Idea CEO: We must nail 4G if we want to do 5G right in India

    Vodfone Idea has recently deployed Massive MIMO technology across its 4G networks, in order to pave the way for the transition to 5G in 2020
    Vodafone Idea will continue to develop and invest in its existing 4G networks, as it paves the way for the move towards 5G next year, according to the company’s CEO.

    Speaking at the ET Telecom 5G Congress in New Delhi last week, Sharma said that it was crucially important to ensure that the country’s 4G networks were on the cutting edge of innovation, to ease the transition into 5G.

    “5G is the opportunity of a lifetime. It is the culmination of everything we have been working towards over the last few years. It’s about making the connectivity revolution happen.

    “5G in India, as with everywhere else in the world, is going to launch on a non-stand-alone basis, which means it will be built on top of our existing 4G framework. This is an absolute imperative to get the 4G story right. It means we have to spread the 4G networks right across the country and make sure that they are robust enough to deal with enormous volumes of traffic,” he said.

    Sharma said that the biggest issue in evolving from 4G to 5G connectivity would be the backhaul. Sharma claims that right now, there is insufficient quantities of fibre available to operators, meaning that backhaul could end up being a throttling point for 5G network speeds. Indeed, it is already having an effect on the country’s 4G networks.

    “The 5G capabilities are being introduced to our networks right now. It will not just be a case of flicking a switch and going from 4G to 5G.

    “For example, Massive MIMO. I just tested the speed on our network using the Ookla speed test. We are clocking speeds of 39.8Mbps on our 4G network right now, which is pretty good. That’s because we have already deployed Massive MIMO technology on our network. Massive MIMO is a 5G technology but we have already deployed over 5,000 Massive MIMO sites across the country. That is the second biggest deployment of that technology in the world. It’s already here.

    So, why are the speeds stuck at 39Mbps and not going on to 100 or 200Mbps? Its not a spectrum issue, its not a radio issue, it’s a backhaul issue. We have to have fibre everywhere as far as I’m concerned. We could even make it a shared fibre network, to ensure that everyone has access to that essential fibre that will power their 5G backhaul. Either that, or we need a massive release of microwave spectrum in the E-band for mobile backhaul. If you give me either of those things, we could see speeds of 100Mbps+ on our exiting 4G networks today,” he said.

    https://www.totaltele.com/503557/Vodafone-Idea-CEO-We-must-nail-4G-if-we-want-to-do-5G-right

  4. Affordable, adequate and clean 5G spectrum need of the hour: Rajan Mathews
    In an interaction with ETTelecom, Rajan Mathews, director general of Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI) said, “The industry needs affordable spectrum – present pricing is not appropriate.

    While limited participation from telecom operators is being speculated in the upcoming 5G spectrum auction, the telecom industry representative body has made clear that the current spectrum pricing is not appropriate and the industry would need affordable, adequate and clean spectrum to take up 5G.
    In an interaction with ETTelecom, Rajan Mathews, director general of Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI) said, “The industry needs affordable spectrum – present pricing is not appropriate. Secondly we need clean spectrum because now there appears to be all types of contention among various government, space and satellite agencies.”

    “Globally when everybody is looking at 28 GHz to be added to what we call as the mobility band of spectrum; we’re finding that we’re locked out of that because of the use of that band by the satellite industry,” he added.

    Global rating agency Fitch had recently said that India’s reserve price of $70 million per MHz is “expensive”, and will force Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel to participate in 5G spectrum auctions in a “limited” way.

    “We’re seeing balkanization of spectrum, such as in 3.3 GHz to 3.5 GHz band. Even when we look at 26 GHz band, we’re seeing the same problems,” commented Mathews.

    https://telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/affordable-adequate-and-clean-5g-spectrum-need-of-the-hour-rajan-mathews/70601689

  5. 5G spectrum sale may be deferred to early 2020

    Spectrum sale, including that of 5G airwaves, is likely to be pushed back to early 2020, given that the auctioneer will only be appointed by October 10, and major work on the draft auction documents is still pending, with the telecom department yet to take a call on airwave quantity and pricing, say officials and industry executives.

    “The timeline may be delayed by around a month, give or take,” said a Department of Telecommunications (DoT) official, who did not want to be named.

    The DoT had initially in June outlined plans to hold the next spectrum sale — first since 2016 — by December 2019.

    “It looks realistically difficult… extremely tight for auctions to begin by the year end,” said Rajan Mathews, director general at Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI), which represents all carriers in the country.

    DoT on Monday invited bids for selecting an auctioneer by September 25.

    The final selection will take place by October 10. The auctioneer’s appointment is typically followed by the government issuing the Notice Inviting Application (NIA) — the document formalising the terms and conditions of the auctions which includes the price and quantum of spectrum to be sold.

    https://telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/5g-spectrum-sale-may-be-deferred-to-early-2020/70851857

  6. India is emerging as the testing and acquisition playground for global consumer technology companies, especially the so-called FAANGs, according to a veteran Internet analyst.

    RBC Capital Markets’ Mark Mahaney, who calls himself Wall Street’s “oldest Internet analyst” after covering the sector for more than two decades, said India is now more popular than markets like China because it has the same growth dynamics but with fewer regulations.

    As one of the largest economies and most populous countries in the world, India has turned into a testing ground for companies such as Facebook, which has used it to beta-test a payments feature for WhatsApp. Netflix rolled out a mobile plan in India at Rs 199 ($2.80), much cheaper than what it charges for a basic plan elsewhere, and has created original content to capture more market share.

    “India does have regulations but it doesn’t seem to be as protectionist as China,” said Mahaney. India has been considering a new law that would require personal data to be stored locally, which could impair the operations of the Internet giants but Mahaney remains confident they can still penetrate the market.

    Besides organic growth, acquisitions are another strategy for these companies in India, especially since they are facing more scrutiny back home and in western Europe. “There’s an opportunity to build growth” in Asia, particularly in India, Mahaney said.

    Amazon has already tried its hand at deals in the South Asian nation by attempting to acquire Indian ecommerce pioneer Flipkart, before it was snapped up by Walmart last year.

    Facebook, Netflix, Amazon and Alphabet can all win big in India, said Mahaney, who has a buy rating on the stocks. “India is less than 5% of Amazon’s total revenues but it has the potential” to get to that level within five years, Mahaney said.

    https://telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/us-tech-giants-turn-to-india-for-new-apps-before-world-release/71450318

  7. 5G WEAK SIGNAL, by Suman Layak
    1 December 2019 The Economic Times – Delhi Edition

    Copyright © 2019. Bennett, Coleman & Co., Ltd.

    The plan to conduct 5G spectrum auction early next year seems unrealistic, given the battering in the telecom space and the paucity of viable use cases for the next-gen network

    The National Company Law Tribunal courtroom of MK Shrawat and CB Singh in Mumbai was empty on the afternoon of November 27, though a vital order for the beleaguered telecom sector was due that day. The court was to decide whether Aircel, the insolvent telecom operator, could retain the right to use its allotted portion of airwaves, and make it count as an asset in the ongoing debt-resolution process.

    The order was finally available on the website past midnight, around 12.30 am on Thursday. It said, much to the relief of Aircel’s creditors, the Department of Telecommunication (DoT) could not take away the telecom spectrum from the bankrupt company.

    The implications of the order went beyond Aircel: the Anil Ambani-promoted Reliance Communications had filed for bankruptcy in February. The DoT had wanted to take back spectrum from mobile telephone service operators who have not paid their dues so that it can reauction them. For telecom players, the right to use spectrum for the licence period is an asset that they can transfer to other bidders.

    Like the court of Shrawat and Singh, multiplied to ?7.64 lakh crore from ?2.8 lakh crore in the same period. At the same time, there is consumer dissatisfaction over low-quality network. While some companies are in the bankruptcy courts, Airtel and Vodafone are trying to deal with a ?92,000 crore blow from the Supreme Court in a 16-year-old case related to revenue calculation.

    It does not bode well for the sector that it has to deal with these issue at a time when the world is talking about adopting much of Indian telecom sector is today burning the midnight oil to figure a way out of the mess it finds itself in. From 10 private sector telecom operators not so long ago, India now has only three major mobile telecom players – the Sunil Mittal-led Bharti Airtel, the Aditya Birla Group and Vodafone Group venture Vodafone Idea and Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Jio. A battle of attrition over tariff between the three, after Reliance Jio entered the market and grabbed almost a third of the market share, has seen the operators’ cash flows shrink rapidly over the past three years. The industry’s annual revenues have largely been stagnant since FY2015, while cumulative debt has 5G technology – the next generation of super-fast wireless communication technology. South Korea has already rolled it out in Seoul and Indian companies were about to start their own pilot projects. Union Telecommunication Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad had said the government plans to auction extra spectrum for 5G services by early next year. However, this seems to be the worst of times for 5G rollout.

    Talking of 5G now when every company is haemorrhaging cash, says a former CEO of an Indian telecom company who didn’t want to be named, is akinto Nero playing the fiddle while Rome was burning.

    Sanjay Kapoor, former CEO of Bharti Airtel, says the enthusiasm for 5G across the world is being driven by equipment makers, like Huawei, Nokia and Ericsson, and the governments, but the device ecosystem is still lagging. “Use cases for 5G have to be fully developed for every market and then monetisation plans have to be worked out. There is much work left to do,” he says.

    Despite the challenges facing the sector, the government’s plan to auction airwaves would open the supply taps. A total of 8,644 MHz of airwaves might be put up on offer, though the previous spectrum auction saw poor response. In 2016-17, the government could sell only 41% (965 MHz) of the spectrum on offer. It raised about ?65,000 crore though the base price of the entire spectrum value on the block was pegged at ?5.6 lakh crore. A mega-auction has been in the works for some time now, along with spectrum for 5G technology, in the 3,300-3,600 MHz band.

    For the upcoming auction, the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India has suggested a base price of ?492 crore per MHz for 5G spectrum. Operators are almost unanimous that they would need 100 MHz each to roll out 5G, which means they would have to pay nearly ?50,000 crore each for the spectrum fee alone. This would make it the highest priced 5G spectrum in the world.

    Despite the abundance of supply, demand during auction might be low due to other problems. Aircel and Reliance Communications will not participate as they are in insolvency courts. Airtel, Vodafone Idea and others are dealing with the massive financial blow after the Supreme Court in October ruled that licence fees of operators need to be calculated on the basis of their adjusted gross revenues, and not their telecom revenues alone. In an attempt to give some relief to the companies struggling with high debt and huge losses, the government then announced a two-year moratorium on payments of spectrum dues.

    For Bharti Airtel, the ruling means an additional burden of ?35,000 crore on pending dues. Vodafone Idea has dues of around ?53,000 crore. Vodafone Global CEO Nick Read had in November reportedly hinted at virtually writing off the India investments, although he retracted and apologised a day later.

    Bharti Airtel has moved a petition in the Supreme Court seeking permission to negotiate with the government to find a way to reduce the burden. Vodafone has also moved the court for relief.

    The third operator, Mukesh Ambani-promoted Reliance Jio, has much lower dues at ?60 crore, mostly because it is a recent player and has already paid a part of the dues. However, sources say, Reliance Jio might also go slow on 5G.

    For the quarter ended September 30, Bharti Airtel posted a loss of ?23,044 crore and Vodafone Idea reported a loss of ?50,921 crore. Jio posted a 45% rise in profit at ?990 crore.

    Reliance Jio, Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel did not respond to queries.

    Chairman of Inditrade Capital and market analyst Sudip Bandyopadhyay points out that while the government has announced a moratorium for spectrum payments to help the industry, it cannot expect a good spectrum auction at the same time. “It is best for the government to not do 5G auctions now, because if it does, who is going to buy? And how will it get a good price in this kind of a market? Even if Reliance Jio participates, it will get the auction at a low price and will be able to hoard it.”Much of the woes of the telecom sector, including the bankruptcy of some of the operators, can be traced back to the entry of Reliance Jio and the tariff battle that followed. However, Reliance Jio, after gaining about one-third of the market, has now raised tariff, signalling an end to the battle.

    Director General of the Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI) Rajan Matthews says the sector needs time to settle down. “We do not believe that the time is ripe for 5G auctions. The concerns around financial health of the sector must be resolved immediately. Hence, we are of the view that the government should not rush to spectrum auctions and should wait for the market to settle down.”A Tech PuzzleBeyond the financial issues, the sector is also facing technical problems.

    Kapoor, who sits on the board of Saudi Telecom, which launched 5G services in Saudi Arabia in June, says the road to 5G is complex in India. He lists out a few necessary changes that Indian operators must implement first before looking at the next-gen technology. Much of the margins in 4G were taken away by the content players who rode on the bandwidth, he says. For 5G, the telecom operators need to get this margin balance right. Also, he says, a big difference will be that 5G is likely to have more focus on B2B operation, and the operators will need to set up a fresh marketing machinery to sell the same. There would be manufacturing and service sector applications, like robotics or tracking and even financial sector applications, in 5G.

    On the technical front, Kapoor points out that 5G is a higher speed network with low latency (the time it takes for a request for data to reach the server and for the data to reach the user). This allows it to be used for critical applications, such as driverless cars, which need a strong fibre network connection. There cannot be any dark spots in the network for such applications. “Complete coverage across India may be uneconomical,” Kapoor says, adding that while inter-city fibre may be available, India lacks enough intra-city fibre.

    High InvestmentPrashant Singhal, technology, media and telecommunication leader for emerging markets at EY, says the investments that need to go in for 5G in India are likely to be much higher than those for 3G or 4G networks and there is no need to rush into it. “The 4G auctions had happened in 2010 and the rollout happened only by 2015-16. We do not want such a situation in 5G also,” Singhal cautions.

    E&Y has estimated that it would cost $100 billion or so to launch 5G in India. The government has announced a moratorium on spectrum fees payments and has asked the GST Council to help lower the tax burden. Given this situation, Singhal says, where is the question of doing a successful spectrum auction, leave alone a 5G launch.

    To be sure, work has already started on trials and development of 5G use cases. Ericsson has set up Centre of Excellence and Innovation Lab for 5G at the Indian Institute of Technology-Delhi. Intel has inaugurated the Intel Design Center, its new R&D facility for 5G and artificial intelligence, in Bengaluru. The DoT in June flagged off 5G trials, stating the trials would go on for a year. But the early-2020 target for 5G spectrum auctions looks impossible to achieve. “India can and will adopt 5G in good time,” adds Matthews of COAI.

    Bennett, Coleman & Co., Ltd.

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