ABI Research and CCS Insight: Strong growth for satellite to mobile device connectivity (messaging and broadband internet access)

The satellite connectivity market will grow strongly in coming years, according to data from analysts ABI Research and CCS Insight.  The growing convergence of satellite technology and cellular smartphones has been made possible by integrating Non-Terrestrial Networks (NTN) connectivity into the 5G cellular ecosystem.
ABI Research’sThe role of satellite in 5G: non-terrestrial networks mobile” forecasts that the NTN-Mobile segment has the potential to reach a market value of at least $18bn, with up to 200 million connections by 2031. It added that the NTN Mobile marketspace has a positive outlook, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 59% from 2024 to 2031.It predicts the revenue growth in this sector will be driven primarily by the introduction of NR-NTN satellite services, which is expected in 2026. ABI believes that the potential adoption of NTN satellite services in consumer vehicles for mobile emergencies, messaging, voice, and data communications use cases would also drive the growth of NTN-Mobile connections. The market research firm said that following the release of 3GPP Release-17, the satellite-to-mobile marketplace has gained significant momentum, driven by notable product launches and major announcements.
However, it should be noted that there is no official standard for 5G NTNs!  ITU-R WP5D hasn’t even started work on it yet, focusing singularly on terrestrial 5G.
Image Credit:  ABI Research
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Victor Xu, satellite communications research analyst, highlighted increased traction from the device side as leaving the sector poised for the mainstream.  He cited moves to provide satellite-capable mobile devices by “major consumer smartphone manufacturers and chipset makers” including “Apple, Qualcomm, Motorola, MediaTek, Huawei, and ZTE” as a marker of the market’s readiness.
ABI also noted that these collaborations have extended beyond to include mobile network operators (MNOs) aiming to expand their network coverage. Examples given were T-Mobile partnering with satellite operator SpaceX/Starlink to provide satellite-to-mobile connectivity services, while satellite operators AST SpaceMobile and Lynk have also established strategic alliances with MNOs such as Vodafone, Rakuten Mobile, AT&T, Bell Canada, MTN Group, Orange, Zain KSA, Saudi Telecom Company (STC), and Telefónica.Xu noted the current batch of satellite-to-mobile services “will initially prioritize low data rate communications through IoT NTN.”  While services to date “have mainly focused on specialised emergency services and messaging with low data rates,” Xu predicted satellite networks will “eventually incorporate NR-NTN, a 5G-based, more advanced communication specification, in the next few years.” Xu added the standard will “increase capacity and network capabilities, enabling more concurrent users and applications with higher data rates.”
ABI Research also highlighted a growing number of deals between satellite service providers and mobile operators, but Xu said it was important to note that the recently announced satellite services will initially prioritize low data rate communications through IoT-NTN technology.”
“Currently, satellite communication services have mainly focused on specialized emergency services and messaging with low data rates. Still, satellite networks are anticipated to eventually incorporate NR-NTN, a 5G-based, more advanced communication standard, in the next few years,” said Xu. “Integrating NR-NTN will increase capacity and network capabilities, enabling more concurrent users and applications with higher data rates. As a result, new possibilities and use cases for satellite connectivity will emerge,” he added.
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Separately, a study from CCS Insight revealed new opportunities for enhanced global connectivity, with projected growth in satellite-connected devices and the introduction of new satellite constellations that can fill connectivity gaps in remote areas.CCS Insight forecasts that 92 million mobile phones will have built-in satellite messaging functionality by the end of 2023, a significant rise from just under 2 million devices in 2021. This shift in accessibility it said was being driven by Apple’s partnering with Globalstar for the Emergency SOS feature in the iPhone 14 range, as well as Qualcomm’s partnership with Iridium, which is bringing similar capabilities to Android phones.The research firm believes that with the integration of satellite connectivity on mobile devices, the market will soon no longer be reliant on hardware modifications. With commercial services expected to launch later in 2023, new low-Earth-orbit satellite constellations led by AST SpaceMobile, Lynk and SpaceX are set to work alongside terrestrial mobile networks to provide satellite connectivity to all unmodified phones.

CCS Insight believes that these enhanced satellite networks have the capability to grow to deliver voice and data services as the constellations evolve. It adds that network operators will be able to offer these satellite services as add-ons to existing subscription packages, catering to the growing demand for ubiquitous connectivity.

As demand for enhanced global connectivity continues to rise, the analyst forecasts that 15% of global mobile subscribers are expected to own a smartphone that supports satellite messaging by 2027 and an additional 10% will benefit from satellite plans provided by their operator.  By capitalizing on revenue streams generated through operators and supplementary services, CCCS believes that the direct-to-device satellite market is poised to amass $18bn in revenue by 2027. This market it said represented a “vast opportunity”, with an audience of more than 4.8 billion people who could access satellite services through a compatible smartphone. It calculated that as many as 493 million people worldwide lack any kind of mobile network coverage.

“Bringing satellite capabilities to mass-market smartphones marks a milestone in the telecom industry,” said Luke Pearce, senior analyst at CCS Insight.  “This development creates exciting opportunities for consumers, manufacturers and operators and promises to help bridge the digital divide. The projected growth in revenue and subscribers highlights the potential this integration holds for expanding connectivity options – we’re witnessing the start of a new era where satellite services become an integral part of everyday smartphones.”

CCS Insight’s free report, Direct Satellite-to-Device Mobile Services, shares unique insight into the market for satellite-connected phones and unpacks its developing dynamics.

 References:

https://www.abiresearch.com/market-research/product/7780386-the-role-of-satellite-in-5g-non-terrestria/

https://www.abiresearch.com/market-research/product/7781971-highlights-developments-in-the-satcom-ntn-/

Direct Satellite-to-Device Mobile Services

ABI tips NTN, 5G mobile market to reach $18B by 2031

AST SpaceMobile achieves 4G LTE download speeds >10 Mbps during test in Hawaii

FCC Grants Experimental License to AST SpaceMobile for BlueWalker 3 Satellite using Spectrum from AT&T

https://www.ericsson.com/en/reports-and-papers/ericsson-technology-review/articles/3gpp-satellite-communication

One thought on “ABI Research and CCS Insight: Strong growth for satellite to mobile device connectivity (messaging and broadband internet access)

  1. This new era of direct satellite-to-earth communications is an amazing development. It will be interesting to see how it evolves and complements existing terrestrial networks.

    Although, as you rightly point out, there are no standards for these non-terrestrial networks, with the relatively rapid lifecycle of consumer electronics, standards may not be as big an issue when endpoints were expected to last a long time. Similarly, interoperability may not be as big an issue, if the NTN spans enough area so that roaming between carriers is no longer needed.

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