According to a new report from Dell’Oro Group, the overall RAN market is now facing a second consecutive year of steep declines, which follows 40 to 50% revenue growth between 2017 and 2021.  While the pace of decline is expected to moderate after 2024, downward pressure is likely to persist until 6G becomes a reality. In addition to the typical market fluctuations that have shaped the RAN landscape over the past 30-plus years, the overpromising of 5G and its inability to significantly alter the flat revenue trend among operators are fueling increased skepticism regarding the need for substantial investments in new technologies (like 5G Advanced, 5G RedCap or O-RAN).

“Some skepticism is warranted. After all, operators invested over $2 trillion in wireless capex between 2010 and 2023 to build out 4G and 5G, yet revenues remain flat,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President of RAN and Telecom Capex research at Dell’Oro Group. “Looking ahead, operators will need to optimize their spectrum roadmaps to address various data traffic scenarios. Our base case assumes that mobile data traffic growth will continue to slow, enabling operators to improve their capital intensity ratios, which will in turn put further downward pressure on the RAN market. However, additional capacity will eventually be required, and at that point, leveraging larger spectrum bands and the existing macro grid will likely offer the most cost-effective solution,” Pongratz added.

Additional highlights from the new 6G Advanced Research Report:

• Total RAN revenues are projected to trend downward until 2029
• 6G RAN revenues to approach $30 B by 2033
• Sub-7 GHz and CM-wave macros are expected to dominate the 6G mix by 2033

About the Report

Dell’Oro Group’s 6G Advanced Research Report offers a complete overview of the RAN market by region and by technology, with tables covering manufacturers’ revenue for 5G NR and 6G by frequency, including Sub-7 GHz, cmWave, and mmWave. The report also covers Cloud RAN, small cells, and Massive MIMO. To purchase this report, please contact by email at [email protected].

References:

6G RAN to Approach $30 B by 2033, According to Dell’Oro Group

https://www.ericsson.com/en/blog/2023/6/cm-wave-spectrum-6g-potent-enabler

Dell’Oro: RAN market still declining with Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung top vendors

Dell’Oro & Omdia: Global RAN market declined in 2023 and again in 2024

Highlights of Dell’Oro’s 5-year RAN forecast

Dell’Oro: RAN market declines at very fast pace while Mobile Core Network returns to growth in Q2-2023

Dell’Oro: 2023 global telecom equipment revenues declined 5% YoY; Huawei increases its #1 position