Dell’Oro: RAN market declines at very fast pace while Mobile Core Network returns to growth in Q2-2023
A new report from Dell’Oro Group says RAN sales declined at their fastest pace in nearly seven years during Q2-2023. According to preliminary findings from the market research firm, following the ‘intense ramp-up’ from 2017 through 2021. While RAN revenues stabilized in 2022 and 1Q23, market conditions worsened in the second quarter, resulting in RAN declining at the fastest pace in nearly seven years. The decline was not unexpected by Dell’Oro, yet the magnitude of the reversal was much steeper than anticipated.
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The RAN market decline was surely expected by IEEE Techblog readers, as this publication has warned for years about the commercial failure of 5G mobile networks.
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“It is tempting to point the finger at data traffic patterns, 5G monetization challenges, and the odds stacked against an economy struggling with persistent levels of elevated inflation,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “Although these are, of course, important factors, we attribute the poor performance in the quarter to the clouds forming in North America. Alongside challenging 5G comparisons, the decline was amplified by the extra inventory accumulated over the past couple of years to mitigate supply chain risks,” Pongratz added.
Additional highlights from the Q2-2023 RAN report:
- Top 5 RAN suppliers for 1H23 include Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE, and Samsung.
- Nokia recorded the largest RAN revenue share gains between 2022 and 1H23.
- Huawei’s quarterly RAN share reached the highest level in three years. Huawei’s 2Q23 RAN revenue share outside of North America was as large as Ericsson and Nokia combined.
- Ericsson and Samsung’s RAN revenue shares declined between 2022 and 1H23.
- Regional projections are mostly unchanged; however, the short-term outlook has been revised upward in APAC excluding China and downward in the North American region.
- Global RAN revenues are expected to decline in 2023.
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In a separate report, Dell’Oro says the Mobile Core Network (MCN) market returned to growth in 2Q 2023. The China region returned to growth and Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) had the strongest quarterly growth rate since 3Q 2020.
“The MCN market shined on many fronts this quarter. The China region returned to growth with increased spending by two of the four Mobile Network Operators (MNOs). The EMEA region had its best quarterly growth rate since 2020, Huawei had record high revenues for the quarter, and Ericsson had its highest growth rate since 2Q20, as examples,” stated Dave Bolan, Research Director at Dell’Oro Group. “As a result, we are raising our outlook for 2023 year-over-year (Y/Y) growth rate from low single-digit percent to mid-single-digit percent.”
“As of 2Q 2023, we counted 44 Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) that have launched commercial 5G SA networks. One was added in 2Q 2023, Telefónica – Spain. The North America and EMEA regions of the 5G MCN segment Y/Y growth rates were in the triple-digit percent, signaling capacity additions to the 5G SA networks in both regions,” continued Bolan.
Editor’s Note: Despite years of promises, neither AT&T or Verizon has yet to deploy a 5G SA core network, without which no 3GPP defined 5G features/functions are possible.
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Additional highlights from the 2Q 2023 Mobile Core Network and Multi-Access Edge Computing Report include:
- The top MCN vendors worldwide for 2Q 2023 were Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, and ZTE.
- The top 5G MCN vendors worldwide for 2Q 2023 were Huawei, Ericsson, ZTE, and Nokia.
- Five MNOs launched commercial 5G SA networks in 1H 2023.
References:
RAN Declines at the Fastest Pace in Seven Years, According to Dell’Oro Group
Mobile Core Network Market Returns to Growth in 2Q 2023, According to Dell’Oro Group
Dell’Oro: RAN Market to Decline 1% CAGR; Mobile Core Network growth reduced to 1% CAGR
Dell’Oro: OpenRAN revenue forecast revised down
through 2027
Dell’Oro: U.S. suppliers ~20% of global telecom equipment market; struggling in RAN business
Earlier this year, a report from Mobile Experts forecast that 5G RAN investments would decline over the next few years before 6G forces another ramp up. Mobile Experts’ new forecast shows how China and the rest of the world have become entirely separate markets.
While Chinese operators will work to meet their government’s expectations of 5G development over the next two years, the United States and other countries will experience a decline in 5G investment, the firm stated.
“We’ve seen this pattern many times, in 2000, 2008, 2016 and now 2023,” said Mobile Experts chief analyst Joe Madden in a statement. “The second half of every ‘G’ involves significant reductions in base station pricing, as well as shifts in volume. Every ‘G’ migrates from a growth opportunity to a cash-cow opportunity. This time, we have some interesting shifts toward software and private 5G at the same time, which offset the natural decline of the market.”
High inflation and increasing interest rates also are affecting carriers’ spending plans. For example, Dish Network, which the U.S. government set up to become the nation’s fourth facilities-based mobile carrier, is taking a pause in its 5G network buildout after having met its June 2023 coverage mandates.
https://www.fiercewireless.com/tech/ran-market-downturn-steeper-expected-delloro
https://www.fiercewireless.com/tech/ran-revenue-decline-until-6g-comes-along-report