Dell’Oro & Omdia: Global RAN market declined in 2023 and again in 2024

A new report from the Dell’Oro Group reveals that the global Radio Access Network (RAN) market concluded the year with another difficult quarter, resulting in a global decrease of nearly $4 billion in RAN revenues for the full year of 2023. However, despite these challenges, the results for the quarter exceeded expectations, partly due to robust 5G deployments in China.

“Following the intense rise between 2017 and 2021, it’s clear that the broader RAN market is now experiencing a setback, as two out of the six tracked regions are facing notable declines,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President for RAN market research at the Dell’Oro Group. “In addition to challenging conditions in North America and Europe, the narrowing gap between advanced and less advanced operators (e.g. India) in this first 5G wave, compared to previous technology cycles, initially had a positive impact but is now constraining global 5G and broader RAN growth prospects,” Pongratz added.

Additional highlights from the 4Q 2023 RAN report:

  • Overall concentration in the RAN market showed signs of improvement in 2021 and 2022, but this progress slowed down in 2023.
  • While full-year RAN rankings remained mostly unchanged for major suppliers, revenue shares within the RAN market showed more variability, with Huawei and ZTE enhancing their global revenue shares. Similarly, Huawei and Nokia saw improvements in their revenue shares outside of China.
  • The top 5 RAN suppliers based on worldwide revenues are Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE, and Samsung.
  • Regional projections are mostly unchanged, with market conditions expected to remain tough in 2024 due to difficult comparisons in India. Nevertheless, the base-case scenario anticipates a more moderate pace of decline this year.

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Source: Dell’Oro Group

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Separately, Rémy Pascal of Omdia says that global RAN revenues  (including both hardware and software) declined by 11% last year to just over $40 billion. The worst performing region by far was North America, which almost halved, but this should be viewed in the context of a relatively strong 2022.

India and China were been the best performing countries for new RAN deployments. This partly explains why Huawei continues to be the top RAN vendor despite attempts by the U.S. and its allies to prevent that, but as the Omdia table below shows, the Chinese vendor is still doing well in many other regions too. We’re told this table looked pretty much the same last year.

Top RAN vendors by region, full year 2023:

North America

Asia & Oceania 

Europe, Middle East and Africa

Latin America & the Caribbean

Ericsson

Huawei

Ericsson

Huawei

Nokia

ZTE

Nokia

Ericsson

Samsung

Ericsson

Huawei

Nokia

Source: Omdia

Omdia expects the RAN market size to decrease by around 5% compared to 2023. That’s an improvement on the 11% 2022-23 decline but still not good news for the RAN industry.

For all the talk of Open RAN, it clearly has yet to inspire significant capex from operators. The same goes for private 5G or programmable networks. Less than halfway through the presumed 5G cycle, spending has stalled and it’s not at all clear what will restart it.

About the Dell’Oro Report:

Dell’Oro Group’s RAN Quarterly Report offers a complete overview of the RAN industry, with tables covering manufacturers’ and market revenue for multiple RAN segments including 5G NR Sub-7 GHz, 5G NR mmWave, LTE, macro base stations and radios, small cells, Massive MIMO, Open RAN, and vRAN. The report also tracks the RAN market by region and includes a four-quarter outlook. To purchase this report, please contact us by email at [email protected].

References:

RAN Market Shows Faint Signals of Life in 4Q 2023, According to Dell’Oro Group

https://www.telecoms.com/wireless-networking/global-ran-market-declined-by-11-in-2023

5G Advanced – How will it impact the RAN Market?

Dell’Oro: RAN market declines at very fast pace while Mobile Core Network returns to growth in Q2-2023

Dell’Oro: RAN Market to Decline 1% CAGR; Mobile Core Network growth reduced to 1% CAGR

https://www.silverliningsinfo.com/5g/ericsson-nokia-and-state-global-ran-2024

LightCounting: Open RAN/vRAN market is pausing and regrouping

 

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