Introduction

In its latest report on PON, FTTH, and DSL Aggregation Equipment and  Subscribers for 1Q2011, market research firm Infonetics (www.infonetics.com) states that “The overall market’s decline was led by a double-digit sequential drop in DSL infrastructure spending in all regions.”  That huge drop pulled the combined market down, even with a 20% increase in the worldwide PON market to over $1B for the first time ever.

“The major story in the broadband aggregation equipment market this quarter is the dramatic drop in DSL ports in China, which points to operators there continuing their dramatic shift away from DSL. The first quarter is typically one of the slowest for DSL, but the seasonal effect was worsened by Chinese operators’ continued shift away from traditional DSLAM deployments. Also, voice ports (DS0s) on FTTB/MXU MSAPs in Asia dropped significantly, signaling a shift away from adding voice lines to simply installing DSL ports,” notes Jeff Heynen, directing analyst for broadband access at Infonetics Research.

Analysis

Is this finding evidence that service providers throughout the world are perhaps ready to shed their copper in favor of fiber?  We don’t think so!  VZ has been the only U.S. telco that’s serious about deploying fiber to the home (for it’s FiOS triple play service offering)  China and Japan have been much more agressive in this area.  Six years ago, I visited my friend in Tokyo who had 100M b/sec Internet access via Ethernet over Fiber.

With most telcos moving at a glacial pace to deploy fiber to homes and commercial buildins, we think DSL still has a lot of life left in it.  Yet, there are other opinions:

DSL equipment spending plummets: Is DSL finally dying?   http://blog.connectedplanetonline.com/unfiltered/2011/05/24/dsl-equipment-spending-plummets-is-dsl-finally-dying/comment-page-1/#comment-37268

There are two types of DSL deployed by telcos in the U.S.:

1. ATM over ADSL or ADSL2 for Internet access and POTs
2. IP-Ethernet over VDSL2 for delivery of triple play services, especially entertainment video (e.g. ATT U-Verse)

With very few new subscriber additions (with possible exception of new buildouts in rural areas), we think ATM over ADSL is likely to see very little new telco spending. It might even be phased out, i.e. no longer offered to new subscribers by many telcos.

The second version of DSL remains commercially viable, but for how long? Will VDSL2 adequately support 3 compressed HDTV streams + high speed Internet acess? And over what distances?

Meanwhile, Comcast has become much more aggressive than U.S. telcos in providing higher speed Internet to residential customers over its HFC network.  (Comcast’s brand name for residential services is “Xfinity”). Comcast Business is extending its fiber network to commercial buildings. This is being done to attract larger business customers to Comcasts high speed Metro Ethernet service and Legacy PBX (PRI) Trunking service.

Comcast Fiber Network Buildout gives rise to Metro Ethernet and PRI trunking services for SMBs

http://viodi.com/2011/05/23/comcast-fiber-network-buildout-gives-rise-to-metro-ethernet-and-pri-trunking-services-for-smbs/

Do you think DSL is Dead?  That telcos are replacing it with FTTH and GPON?  Or that MSOs higher speed Internet access is taking market share from DSL based Internet?  And what about AT&Ts U-Verse which uses VDSL2 to deliver 3 HDTV channels + high speed Internet + VoIP (or so ATT claims)????

DSL Reports says that AT&T “will virtually stop” its U-Verse build-outs at the end of this year.  U-verse,  which delivers residential triple play service bundles, is one of the fastest growing parts of AT&Ts wireline business.  Much more so than the traditional digital private line and IP VPN services to business customers

During a recent Citibank investor’s conference,  John Stankey, AT&T’s President, said that the service provider is confident it can pass 55-60 percent of the 30 million homes passed in their service region by end of 2011.  But that may be the end of the line for U-Verse.  

Within the broadband data realm, Stankey said that only 25-30 percent of homes in AT&T’s region will be offered ADSL, adding that 20 percent of them are “not a heavy emphasis for investment.”Interestingly, AT&T’s goal comes at a time when U-verse continues to resonate with customers in the regions where it’s available. In Q1 2011, AT&T added 175,000 new broadband subscribers and 218,000 U-verse subscribers to reach 3.2 million in service.  However, the broadband numbers fell short of analyst expectations of 195,000 new subscribers.

AT&T CFO Ritcher told investors “Consumer wireline is growing again, thanks to our U-verse product. We’re really just seeing the benefits of scaling the service and it gives us great momentum. U-verse is transforming our consumer results. Where we offer U-verse, our ARPUs are higher, our churn is lower, our customer satisfaction is better across all of our products.”

DSL Reports’ Dave Burstein, wrote, “I didn’t expect so severe a cutback, and wouldn’t be surprised if they reversed it eventually. I checked with AT&T whether Stankey mis-spoke, but not so according to his pr people. Virtually stopping means that in many cities U-Verse will look like Swiss cheese, with 10-50% of homes in holes that can’t be served. 

I’m guessing that what’s going on is that AT&T decided they had no choice but to raise capex on wireless, accelerating the LTE build to prevent falling too far behind Verizon. Expanding U-verse to 75-85% is almost surely profitable after cost of capital, which to a purely theoretical economist would suggest they would just borrow modestly and do both.”

To stem the loss of traditional DSL customers,  where  U-verse is not available, AT&T is offering a number of special promotions.  These include low-priced DSL offerings to lure dial-up Internet customers starting at $14.99. It is also appealing to its growing wireless custoemr base with a special bundle for qualifying U-Verse TV customers a $45 monthly discount for six months covering the cost of U-Verse Internet Max.

Personal Note:  AT&T trucks and technician’s have spent the last three days at the patch panels outside my condo complex in Santa Clara, CA.  They have been testing resident copper loops for U-Verse compatibility.  During those tests, existing customer phone and DSL based Internet were out of service with no notice given to the customers effected.  I am wating for an AT&T Executive to explain this unexpected outage with no customer notification.  Will report back later.

For more information:  AT&T’s Stankey: U-verse Build Virtually OverCompany Comments Suggest Build Ends at 55-60% of Homes

http://www.dslreports.com/shownews/ATTs-Stankey-Uverse-Build-Virtually-Over-114279

Market research firm Infonetics Research has released its first quarter 2011 (1Q11) Optical Network Hardware vendor market share report, which finds that the optical network market will experience modest growth this year after a mixed 1Q11.  Highlights from the report:

  The global optical network equipment market, including WDM and SDH/SONET equipment, saw a typical seasonal decline in 1Q11, down 12%, following a 10% increase in 4Q10
.    Year-over-year, from the first quarter of 2010 to the first quarter of 2011, WDM optical network equipment spending is up 20% and the overall optical market is up 7%
.    Optical network hardware vendors that are Japan- and North America-centric did well in 1Q11, including Ciena, Cisco, Fujitsu, and NEC, all posting single- or double-digit gains
.    Meanwhile, most other vendors posted slight to significant revenue declines, including market leaders Alcatel-Lucent and Huawei
.    North America optical spending held steady in 1Q11 over 4Q10, bucking normal seasonal trends
.    Optical equipment spending is up year-over-year in all regions except Asia Pacific
.    ROADM spending set another new high in 1Q11, shrugging off seasonal spending patterns to rise 4% sequentially

 “There is concern in the optical industry about the outlook for 2011, but we feel our single digit growth forecasts for 2011 are achievable. Optical equipment for mobile and broadband backhaul is in demand, and carriers are embarking on a multi-year ‘optical reboot’ to 40Gbs/100Gbs transmission over OTN and ROADM based networks. Vendors who service the growing WDM and packet-optical sector should do well, while vendors leveraged to legacy SONET/SDH will not,” foresees Andrew Schmitt , Infonetics Research’s directing analyst for optical.

Here’s a link to a sample chart from this report: 

http://viodi.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/2011-Infonetics-1Q11-Optical-Ntwk-Hardware-Mkt-Fcst-Chart.jpg

The report tracks optical network vendors, including Adtran, ADVA, Alcatel-Lucent, BTI, Ciena, Cisco, ECI, Ericsson, Fujitsu, Huawei, Infinera, NEC, Nokia Siemens Networks, Nortel, Sycamore, Tellabs, Transmode, Tyco, ZTE, and others. Worldwide and regional vendor market share, market size, and analysis are covered in the report (1Q11 analysis and forecasts will be published by May 26).

Equipment tracked: metro and long haul optical network equipment, including SONET/SDH (ADMs and terminals, metro MSPPs and crossconnects), WDM (transport, ROADM, and long haul submarine line terminating equipment), and packet-optical transport systems (P-OTS). Also tracked: number of ports and revenue per port by speed (Ethernet, SONET/SDH/POS, WDM), from below OC48/STM1 to 100G. Regions tracked: Asia Pacific (with breakouts for China , Japan , India ), Central and Latin America (CALA), EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa), North America , and worldwide.

A related Infonetics report on the OTN market is described and analyzed at:  

http://viodi.com/2011/05/16/infonetics-carriers-making-major-push-to-otn-pmc-sierra-sees-healthy-otn-growth-during-next-5-years/

Categories and Definitions
Products
◆ SONET/SDH: ADMs and MSPPs and crossconnects that attach to SONET/SDH rings and/or provide DCS functions
◆ WDM: Transport + ROADM
• Transport: DWDM + CWDM terminals, OADMs, amplifiers

Long haul hardware interconnects COs between metro areas, supporting distances greater than 200km
◆ SONET/SDH ADMs and terminals; switches with or without DCS functions; may have transport capabilities
◆ WDM: Transport + ROADM
• Transport: terminals, OADMs, amplifiers
• ROADM: OEO or photonic switching; may have transport capabilities; includes amplifiers; must incorporate ROADM technology

Packet-optical transport systems (P-OTS) is an “overlay” category; it is a subset of already reported SONET/SDH and WDM equipment (P-OTS is not added into total optical revenue)

Legacy DCS (Digital Cross Connect) optical network hardware is not included in this service.

Ports
◆ Ethernet optical used in WDM and SONET/SDH products only (not in Ethernet switches and routers)
• 10M/100M/1G
• 10G
• 40G
• 100G
◆ SONET/SDH/POS used in SONET/SDH and WDM products only (not in Ethernet switches and routers)
• OC-3/STM1 (155M)
• OC-12/STM4 (622M)
• OC-48/STM16 (2.5G)
• OC-192/STM64 (10G)
• OC-768/STM256 (40G)
• 100G

◆ WDM used in SONET/SDH and WDM products only (not in Ethernet switches and routers)
• Below OC-48/STM1, wavelength, OTN includes OC-3 and OC-12, SAN ports (FICON, ESCON, Fiber Channel)
• OC-48/STM16, wavelength, OTN (2.5G)
• OC-192/STM64, wavelength, OTN (10G)
• OC-768/STM256, wavelength, OTN (40G)
• 100G wavelength, OTN

Metro hardware connects buildings to COs and any locations between (such as CEVs and RTs), and to connect COs, POPs, and data
centers in a metro area, supporting distances of up to 200km

ROADM: OEO or photonic switching; may have transport capabilities; includes amplifiers; must incorporate ROADM technology
SLTE (submarine line terminating equipment): dry hardware only, does not include wet hardware such as festoons and
amplifiers; does not include terrestrial equipment used to drive undersea links; must be purpose built for SLTE applications

2nd gen P-OTS: platforms with an architecture that provides Ethernet switching and circuit switching (SONET/SDH crossconnect and/or OTN) across the chassis; must support connection oriented Ethernet (COE) protocols (e.g., MPLS-TP, PBB-TE, T-MPLS, switched VLANs), WDM, and ROADM at a system level with a single control plane; does not include external ROADM systems

1st gen P-OTS: platforms that provide L2 Ethernet switching and/or aggregation, SONET/SDH ADM (may have crossconnect), and WDM
interfaces; may have some but not necessarily all of the following: the ability to groom and switch both SONET/SDH and Ethernet across the chassis, connection-oriented Ethernet protocols (e.g., MPLS-TP, PBB-TE, T-MPLS, switched VLANs), and OTN G.709 client interfaces

RELATED OPTICAL RESEARCH from Infonetics (www.infonetics.com):

. Optical transceiver market rockets to $1.2B in 2010, forecast to hit $2.8B by 2015

. ROADM WSS component market on pace for 20% annual growth through 2015

. OTN survey reveals huge shift in carrier plans for optical switching

. EMEA optical network hardware market expected to turn around in 2011

. High speed network port market to hit $52 billion in 2015 (1G, 10G, 40G, 100G)

Disclaimer:  This author has no business relationship with Infonetics, but we respect the primary market research that is the basis for their reports

CenturyLink, which is acquiring Qwest, Embarq (former Sprint Local) and Savvis, added over 52,000 new DSL subscribers in the last quarter, bringing it to a total of 2.4 million broadband subscribers.  While DSL subscribership rose in Q1, CenturyLink was able to reduce access line loss to 13.6, an improvement over Q4 2010 and 15.2 percent over Q1 2010. At the end of Q1 2011, CenturyLink had 6,397,000 access lines. 

The carrier reported a 16% drop in profit, which came in at 69 cents a share, only a penny shy of analyst estimates.  Qwest results were not included in CenturyLink’s earnings report, because the telco purchase closed in early April.   Operating revenues for first quarter 2011 were $1.70 billion compared to $1.80 billion in first quarter 2010. The revenue decline was primarily due to the impact of access line losses and lower access revenues, including the anticipated impact of lower universal service fund receipts and wireless and long distance traffic migration. These decreases more than offset revenue increases driven by growth in high-speed Internet customers, data services demand from business customers and data transport demand from wireless providers.

Operating expenses, excluding special items, decreased to $1.20 billion from $1.22 billion in first quarter 2010, driven by lower transport costs due to the migration of legacy Embarq long distance traffic to our internal IP network and lower personnel-related costs.   These decreases were partially offset by higher costs associated with the expansion of CenturyLink™ Prism™ TV into additional markets.

Glen Post III, CEO and president of CenturyLink, said in the earnings release that in addition to “successfully integrating and operating the Embarq properties, slowing the rate of line loss in our business and meeting customer demand for high-speed Internet and high-bandwidth services.” 

“The addition of more than 52,000 high-speed Internet subscribers, expansion of CenturyLink’s Prism™ TV service to additional markets and growing demand for Ethernet and data transport services helped drive strategic revenue growth of 7% in the first quarter this year versus last year,” Post said. “Customer demand for bandwidth intensive services continues to increase, and CenturyLink continues to focus on delivering high-quality, reliable broadband services to meet this growing demand.”

“I believe the recently completed Qwest transaction and the pending Savvis acquisition significantly enhance CenturyLink’s position as a global communications leader and strengthen our ability to drive long-term shareholder value.”
  
Separately, Qwest reported $2.85 billion in operating revenues, down 4.1 percent from $2.97 billion in Q1 2010. However, it did see an uptick in strategic service revenues as a result of increases in Qwest IQ Networking and data transport services, as well as higher broadband revenues driven by subscriber growth and an improving mix of higher speed broadband services.  Qwest also saw a strong rise in broadband subscriptions with the addition of about 46,000 broadband DSL subscribers in Q1 2011. It ended the quarter with 3.0 million total broadband subscribers. As expected, Qwest saw its share of access line loss in Q1 2011. At the end of Q1 2011, Qwest had about 8.6 million access lines. The telco lost 223,000 lines in Q1 2011, which represented a 2.5 percent sequential decline and a year-over-year access line decline of 10.7 percent

CenturyLink won’t be extending its IPTV service to existing Qwest customers anytime soon.  While CenturyLink now offers its Prism IPTV service in a few select markets, Qwest (an early telco TV pioneer) has been delivering satellite TV services and pursuing a hybrid Over the Top video vision.  Without the video component, CenturyLink faces some strong cable competition from cable operators like Cox in it’s local markets.  That MSO offers 50 Mbps- DOCSIS 3.0 based Internet access as part of a triple play bundle in markets like Phoenix, Ariz. 
“We are getting more local — competing with the CLECs and cable companies who have been taking market share from Qwest,” said Karen Puckett, EVP and COO of CenturyLink.

On 04/27/2011, CenturyLink announced a definitive agreement to acquire all outstanding shares of Savvis common stock.  It’s a cash and stock merger valued at $40 per share, or a total of approximately $2.5 billion, plus net debt of approximately $0.7 billion which will be assumed or refinanced at close.   Savvis is a leading provider of cloud based services, colloacation and managed hosting.  They use their traffic engineered, IP-MPLS private network (rather than IP VPNs over the public Internet) to deliver LAN like network performance to its business customers.  In our opinion, this will give the company a huge advantage in delivering cloud computing services.

With the addition of Savvis, CenturyLink will achieve global scale as a managed hosting and colocation provider and will accelerate its ability to deliver quality managed hosting and cloud capabilities to its business customers. The combination of CenturyLink’s hosting and network assets with Savvis’ proven solutions in colocation, managed hosting and cloud services substantially enhances CenturyLink’s capabilities and provides the company with a solid platform for future growth.

“The transaction creates a premier managed hosting and colocation provider with global scale in a high growth sector, and is expected to be accretive to revenue growth and cash flow per share,” said Glen F. Post, III, CenturyLink CEO and president. “Today, businesses are shifting the way they manage their information technology services and infrastructure, and this transaction helps us meet these needs by offering Savvis’ leading products and services coupled with CenturyLink’s network. We look forward to working with the Savvis team to leverage CenturyLink’s significant scale and scope to fully realize the potential of Savvis’ capabilities for our combined customers, while also enhancing value for our shareholders and providing opportunities for our employees.”  

“As migration to cloud-based services continues to accelerate rapidly, a strategic combination was a natural choice to create significant scale and become part of a large global network for the benefit of our customers, stockholders and employees,” said James E. Ousley, chairman and chief executive officer of Savvis. “We believe that combining our proven capabilities in cloud infrastructure and managed hosting with CenturyLink’s hosting assets and large base of business customers will create powerful opportunities to accelerate growth. We also look forward to making the full resources of a much larger network infrastructure available to our customers.”

Together, CenturyLink and Savvis will operate 48 data centers located in North America, Europe, and Asia with more than 1.9 million square feet of gross floor space; a robust, national 207,000 route mile fiber network; a 190,000 mile global access network; and have a customer list that includes a majority of the Fortune 500 and Fortune 1000 companies

For all Century Link Press Releases, please visit:  http://news.centurylink.com/

Comment:  This author has had two interviews with Savvis Network Professionals and came away very impressed with the emphasis the company is putting on their IP-MPLS network to deliver a variety of cloud computing services to business customers.  We are planning a separate article that will look in depth at Savvis’ private network for cloud computing.  Please let us know your interests in that area by emailing the author ([email protected]) or commenting in the box below this article.

TiEcon 2011- “Innovation Reigns”  will take place at the Santa Clara Convention Center, May 13-14th. The conference always brings together a diverse and dynamic group of leaders from business, technology, venture capital, and media for two days of education, inspiration, and networking. This years event will feature session tracks and keynote speeches focused on several key market segments: Cloud, Mobile, Social, Energy and Life Sciences. Fifteen panel sessions will cover the hottest issues for industry participants, customers, and investors in these high profile industry sectors. Six Keynotes and Breakthrough Thinkers, representing the top of their industries, will share presentations and unique views on critical topics.

A session that seems of particular interest to IEEE ComSoc Community readers is The Next BIG Mobile Trends and Opportunities. It will be led by a top analyst- Rajeev Chand, Managing Director, Rutberg & Company.   Speakers will explore the opportunities and challenges that are of most interest to wireless carriers, software platform companies, and investors.

The panel will try to answer key questions like:

-How are mobile operators adapting to the new value chain?
-Where are venture firms placing bets? What are the key technology choices going forward?
-How will mobile ecosystem participants will adapt their strategies as mobile networks evolve to 4G with many more connected smart devices?
-What are the opportunities created by these ecosystem changes?

Session attendees will gain insight on what to expect as mobility becomes ever more mainstream. Expect to gain a better perspective on how the wireless industry will evolve and cope with the expected deluge of mobile data traffic that’s already upon us. Is mobile video (finally) the killer app?

Related Activity:   Mobile Spectrum Re-Allocation has been the hottest topic in the last five years on the IEEE ComSocSCV Discussion list reflector (open to all IEEE members). It will be explored in depth along with other WiFi/3G/4G issues by VPs of Broadcom and Qualcomm at  ComSocSCV’s May 11th meeting. More info + RSVP at: www.comsocscv.org

There are more WIreless/Mobile TiECon sessions as well as panels on Cloud Computing that should be of interest to Communications professionals, especially start-ups.  At this year’s conference, TiE is introducing a new program called MentorConnect where seasoned entrepreneurs from TiE’s base of Charter Members will provide small group mentoring to TiECon attendees.

Another attraction for TiECon 2011 is an expanded  Innovation Expo, which will bring startups, universities, and research labs of large companies to show their innovative products and technologies to TiEcon attendees. We’ve just been informed that the Innovation Expo is oversold!  There will be over 120 booths in the various technologoy verticals. Plenty to see, investigate and learn many new things!

TiE 50, the 3rd annual awards program to recognize the “Top 50 Startup Companies”, will be a prominent part of TiEcon.  The 50 award winners selected from 291 finalists and over 1,600 nominations, represent the most enterprising startups of 2011 in five sectors that are driving today’s economy: Internet/Social Networking, Software/Cloud Computing, Life Sciences, Wireless/Mobile and Energy/Cleantech. The TiE 50 judging process was designed with meticulous planning, screening and judging by over forty prominent entrepreneurs, venture capitalists, corporate executives and other domain experts.  The TiE50 2011 Winners in the Wireless/Mobile space are:
Avnera Corporation, Bump Technologies, Cinemacraft Pte Ltd, E-Senza Technologies GmbH, Luna Ergonomics Pvt Ltd, mFoundry, Inc, Roamware, Inc., SmrtGuard Security, Stoke, Inc., Zenprise

We expect many of these award winners to be rising stars in their respective fields. Previous award winners have done quite well. The complete list of 2011 winners is at: http://www.tie50.net/TiE50Awards/2011Winners_List.asp

For more information about TiECon:

You can find more information about TiECon and register at www.tiecon.org. The keynotes, panel sessions, and other events are all listed there under the agenda along with speakers/moderators.

Note:  IEEE ComSocSCV has had a strategic alliance relationship with TiE-Silicon Valley since January 2010.  We have had 2 joint technical meetings (on networked video and transforming academic research into commercially viable technologies) and one hugely successful workshop (on mobile apps and mobile infrastructure).  IEEE is a marketing partner for TiECon and IEEE members get discounted registration for this conference.

Session Abstract

IEEE ComSocSCV brings together the semiconductor industry leaders in the WiFi and 3G-CDMA/ 4G-LTE markets for this information packed technical meeting. Each of our esteemed speakers will present their subject matter as described in the abstracts below. A panel session with audience Q and A will follow the two presentations. The speakers will cover the technology trend (integrated technology (CDMA, OFDM, WiFi, etc..), memory size, major challenges, etc) for ICs inside broadband wireless devices (can be both base station and subscriber), the market size, key applications and opportunities.

We are looking for corporate sponsors for this event. If interested, please contact our CMO Affif Siddique at [email protected]

Absract of Each Presentation

1.  Evolution of Wi-Fi,    Michael Hurlston — Sr VP at Broadcom, San Jose, CA

2.  3G and 4G Mobile Broadband Technologies and Silicon Solutions,   

Je Woo Kim, Ph.D-VP of Technology-Qualcomm, Santa Clara, CA

In the 3 part talk, we address the overall broadband wireless technologies and market trends. In section I, standards and technologies for the wireless broadband systems are described. 4G wish list and key features are addressed, too. In section II, mobile services, mobile broadband evolution and 3G/LTE multi-mode device strategy are discussed. For 3G/LTE multi-mode device strategy, the evolution path for data only LTE to VoLTE (voice)/LTE data is discussed. Silicon vendors, their products, features/technologies and product strategies for mobile broadband are compared in section III. The 3GPP progression path from LTE to LTE Advanced (true 4G) will also be examined along with the complexity of advanced features vs their actual implementation.

Please join us for what promises to be an exciting and illuminating session! 

RSVP and logistics at:  http://www.ewh.ieee.org/r6/scv/comsoc/index.php#may11

Please join us for what promises to be an exciting and illuminating session!  RSVP and logistics at:  http://www.ewh.ieee.org/r6/scv/comsoc/index.php#may11

Background:

Cyber security impacts all areas of IT and has probably not gotten the attention it deserves.  Here are several related questions to consider and think about:

• For Internet consumers, what web sites should you trust and what’s the risk? Will you be the unwilling victim of identity theft, a stolen email account or passwords? How can you protect yourself from these malicious attacks?
• Are corporate data centers (i.e. servers) secured? Is your IP VPN access foolproof with respect to authentication, authorization and accounting?
• As a potential cloud computing user/service provider/vendor, what are the real security issues with the cloud? Should we extrapolate from current data center security or think of the cloud as a distributed data center?
• Wat is the threat and risk of electronic eavesdropping? Is encryption needed on all web and email transactions?  Is your encryption foolproof or can it be broken?
• For government agencies, what is the risk of a cyber terror attack on government computers and Internet sites? 

Discussion:

At the April 19th IEEE ComSocSCV meeting (co-sponsored by IEEE Computer SCV), Ed Talbot and Tom Kroeger of Sandia Labs took a hard look at cyber security issues, especially the many assumptions people make that are not valid. From the session abstract:

“Current cyber security approaches are fundamentally broken. Vulnerabilities in current implementations are virtually limitless, and threats are exploiting these vulnerabilities faster than we can detect and counter them. This talk presents a qualitative survey of the current state of affairs in cyber security. We show how current cyber security implementations compound the problem by creating the illusion of security. The result is a primitive cyber society in which trust and confidence are absent or, worse yet, deceptive. This examination of cyber security is intended as a reality check with the hope of provoking the thoughtful discussion about solutions that address the core problems. We will examine this situation and present several approaches that attempt to develop a basis from which we can foster transformation in digital security.”

Here are the top three (out of 14) security myths the speakers identified:

1. The more layers of defense, the better.
2. Burdensome security is better security (like strong passwords).
3. Running my executables on my data on my system is secure because I control my system.

Counter examples for these three myths were provided with an interesting set of use cases and graphics which illustrated the fallacies, pitfalls and risks associated with these false notions of security.  The speakers said that vulnerabilities are  limitless with threats exploiting those vulnerabilities coming faster than they can be detected,  The speakers believe the industry needs a fresh approach or new way in which we think about security, potential vulnerabilities and counter-measures to prevent them.

The session was very well received by over 80 attendees as was evident during the very spirited Q and A session.  There were several debates among audience members and speakers.  After the meeting formally concluded at 8:15pm many attendees queued for 1 on 1 discussions with the speakers and each other. This lasted  till we were forced to leave the building at 9pm.  And then several attendees followed Ed and Tom into the parking lot to continue the discussions!

Postscript:

In an Aprl 20th email, Tom wrote: 

The Myths that we’ve discovered so far are below.  I probably need to tune up the wording on some of them and I’m sure that the list is not complete.  But it’s a place to start the dialog.  Your thoughts and comments are welcome.

• Myth 1: More Layers of Defense Are Always Better than Fewer
• Myth 2: Running My Executables on My Data on My System Is Secure Because I Control My System
• Myth 3: Effective Security Is Necessarily Burdensome
• Myth 4: Trusted Computing Eliminates the Need to Trust People
• Myth 5: We understand our adversary
• Myth 6: Stronger authentication will compromise anonymity
• Myth 7: Using industry best practices provides the best value in cybersecurity
• Myth 8: Better security will compromise availability
• Myth 9: It’s OK for the adversary to be in the system as long as they don’t compromise mission success.
• Myth 10: Cyber is a battle space just like land, sea, air, and space.
• Myth 11: Improving cyber security will necessarily compromise freedom, human rights, eliminate school lunch programs, kill puppies…whatever.
• Myth 12: The mission is more important than security.
• Myth 13: Using the cloud will diminish availability.
• Myth 14: A system is only as trustworthy as its weakest link

Ed asks, “Are there more???”

About IEEE ComSocSCV:

Please check out all our upcoming and archived meetings at:  www.comsocscv.org.

We also have a ComSocSCV Facebook page and a LinkedIn Group

Related blogs/ article: 

‘Demystifying Cyber Security – Myths vs Realities’ Perspective/Event Summary

http://www.semiwiki.com/forum/f2/demystifying-cyber-security-myths-vs-realities-perspective-event-summary-629.html

In a very impressive CSO Perspectives conference keynote speech on April 6th, Howard A. Schmidt, Special Assistant to the President and the Cybersecurity Coordinator, told the audience that the U.S. was taking very strong measures to prevent and defend against cyber-security attacks. President Obama has made cyber-security a top policy priority within his Administration. On May 29th of 2009 Obama stated that the “cyber threat is one of the most serious economic and national security challenges we face as a nation” and that “America’s economic prosperity in the 21st century will depend on Cyber-security.”

http://www.computer.org/portal/web/csdl/doi/10.1109/MSP.2010.95

The Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA) announced it will host a meeting of experts from various Standards Developing Organizations (SDOs) and similar forums from around the world who will look into the trends of machine-to-machine (M2M) standardization. The goal of the meeting is fostering global coordination and harmonization in this very fast growing telecommunications area.  That experts meeting will be held in conjunction with annual industry event – TIA 2011: Inside the Network – that will take place in Dallas, TX, May 17-20, 201.

At the most recent Global Standards Collaboration meeting (GSC-15) organized by the China Communications Standardization Association (CCSA) in Beijing, in September 2010, the Chair of TIA TR-50 Smart Device Communications engineering committee was appointed Convener of the newly-created M2M Standardization Task Force (MSTF), which will meet during TIA 2011.

“TIA’s objective is to continue to be a catalyst for the development of effective standards for information and communications technology,” said TIA President Grant Seiffert. “The co-location of the MSTF meeting with TIA 2011 aims at providing real-time information firmly grounded on facts and a thorough understanding of the M2M Standardization environment.”

The MSTF is to report on its activities and recommendations to GSC-16, which will be hosted by the ICT Standards Advisory Council of Canada (ISACC), and held in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada during the week that starts October 31, 2011. Although the MSTF meeting is not open to the public, some of its speakers and attendees will participate in various panels of the M2M track of TIA 2011 and will be able to address the current status of this exploding market, the manifold opportunities of the technology, and share the progress made in the area of standardization.

Dr. Jeffrey O. Smith, Chief Technology Officer of Numerex, Chair of TIA TR-50 and Convener of the MSTF added, “I am very pleased with the response from our fellow SDOs. In addition to the United States, Canada, China, India, Japan, Korea, and Europe will be represented at the meeting, boding well for the quality of the work and the recommendations to GSC-16 . We have already started to liaise and collaborate with other prominent international standardization groups focused on M2M, and the results have been thus far very productive and illuminating.”  Dr Smith spoke at IEEE ComSocSCV’s M2M workshop @ SCU on Sept 25, 2010.

MSTF organizer Alain Louchez, also of Numerex, recently wrote, “We gave a presentation about TIA TR-50, the upcoming M2M Standardization Task Force (MSTF) meeting and TIA 2011 during the first meeting of the ITU-T JCA (Joint Coordination Activity) on IoT (Internet of Things). That meeting took place on March 15, 2011.  There is definitely a convergence of common concerns and scope.  Hyoung Jun Kim and the whole JCA IoT group are very interested in getting associated with the forthcoming MSTF meeting in Dallas, TX.”

For more info on the ITU-T JCA IoT group, please visit:

http://www.itu.int/en/itu-t/jca/iot/Pages/default.aspx

Reference: 

https://techblog.comsoc.org/2011/03/24/call-for-interest-m2m-standardization-task-force-especially-encouraging-ieee-standards-based-involvement

Introduction

ITU-T Focus Group on Cloud Computing (FG Cloud) was established by ITU-T TSAG agreement at its meeting in Geneva, 8-11 February 2010 followed by ITU-T study groups and membership consultation.

The Terms of Reference of the Focus Group are available at: http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-T/focusgroups/cloud/Pages/tor.aspx

The Focus Group will contribute to the telecommunication aspects of cloud computing, i.e., the transport via telecommunications networks, security aspects of telecommunications, service requirements, etc., in order to support services/applications of “cloud computing” making use of telecommunication networks; specifically:

• identify potential impacts on standards development and priorities for standards needed to promote and facilitate telecommunication/ICT support for cloud computing
• investigate the need for future study items for fixed and mobile networks in the scope of ITU-T
• analyze which components would benefit most from interoperability and standardization
• familiarize ITU-T and standardization communities with emerging attributes and challenges of telecommunication/ICT support for cloud computing
• analyze the rate of change for cloud computing attributes, functions and features for the purpose of assessing the appropriate timing of standardization of telecommunication/ICT in support of cloud computing

The Focus Group will collaborate with worldwide cloud computing communities (e.g., research institutes, forums, academia) including other SDOs and consortia.

For more information on the ITU-T Cloud FG, please visit:  http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-T/focusgroups/cloud/Pages/default.aspx

Results of April 2011 Meeting of ITU-T Cloud FG

The fifth ITU-T Focus Group on Cloud Computing (FG Cloud) meeting took place in Geneva, Switzerland, from 5 to 8 April, 2011. 39 participants brought 65 contributions, input liaisons and presentations to the meeting.

The principal outputs of this meeting were revised drafts of six documents (which are only available to ITU-T member organizations):

-Introduction to the cloud ecosystem: definitions, taxonomies, use cases, high level requirements and capabilities.
-Functional requirements and reference architecture.
-Infrastructure and network enabled cloud.
-Cloud security, threats and requirements.  A “Cloud Security Deliverable” document will be generated at the next FG meeting
-Benefits of cloud computing from telecom/ICT perspectives.
-Overview of Standard Development Organizations (SDOs) involved in cloud computing. 

Note: The FG will consider Open Virtualization Format (OVF) v1.0 as a virtualization technology.  It will soon be an international standard through an ANSI fast track submission in ISO/IEC JTC 1.

The following items will also be progressed at future FG meetings:

-Accessibility, virtual terminals and Eco-friendly Cloud Computing – accessibility general principle and relationship with Cloud.
-Resources Management. The Cloud FG will provide a document which lists the specifications available on the resources management and provide a gap analysis.

Of all these activities, the most relevant to the actual cloud network is the deliverable output covering Infrastructure and network enabled cloud.  This is the closest that the Cloud FG will come to defining a UNI and/or NNI for various configurations of cloud computing

The activity of that work area will be focused on:

– the ability to link existing networks services, Internet connectivity, L2/L3 VPN efficiently to public or private cloud services.

– the ability to link a flexible L2 & L3 network management and cloud technology forming an integrated cloud infrastructure enabling cloud services.  Both intra and inter-cloud scenarios are being considered.

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For more information on the ITU-T Cloud FG, please visit:  http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-T/focusgroups/cloud/Pages/default.aspx

Please post a comment or contact the author if you are interested in this ITU-T activity or the IEEE Cloud standards projects (see previous post).

On April 4th, IEEE announced the launch of its new Cloud Computing draft standards. Designed to serve as the catalyst for innovation in the cloud computing arena, it is claimed to be “the first broad-scope, forward-looking cloud computing initiative to be put forth by a global standards development organization (SDO).” These two Cloud standards development projects are being undertaken by two new IEEE Working Groups sponsored by IEEE Computer Society (ComSoc has no jurisdiction or official role):

• IEEE P2301™  Draft Guide for Cloud Portability and Interoperability Profiles

http://standards.ieee.org/develop/wg/CPWG-2301_WG.html

• IEEE P2302™  Draft Standard for Intercloud Interoperability and Federation

http://standards.ieee.org/develop/wg/ICWG-2302_WG.html

IEEE P2301 is to provide a road map for cloud vendors, service providers, and other key cloud providers for use in their cloud environments. If IEEE P2301 is a solid, widely adopted standard, it could aid users in procuring, developing, building, and using standards-based cloud computing products and services.  Th the objective would be to enable portability, increased commonality, and interoperability.

IEEE P2302 is to define the topology, protocols, functionality, and governance required to support cloud-to-cloud interoperability.  We hope this includes the Network to Network Interface (NNI) for Private to Pubic, Private to Private, and Public to Public Clouds.  That would enable different Cloud provider networks to be interconnected in a standardized way.  It is an area that we think IEEE should liaise with ITU-T FG Cloud (see Closing Comments below).

“Since its inception, the Internet has gone through radical changes driven by the twin engines of continued technology advancement and evolving user expectations,” said Steve Diamond, chair, IEEE Cloud Computing Initiative. “Cloud computing today is very much akin to the nascent Internet – a disruptive technology and business model that is primed for explosive growth and rapid transformation. But without a flexible, common framework for interoperability, innovation could become stifled, leaving us with a siloed ecosystem. By leveraging its uniquely deep and broad technological resources and expertise, IEEE is helping to minimize fragmentation and ensure that cloud computing realizes its full potential.” 

“Cloud computing will change everything. It is one of the three aspects of the ‘perfect storm’ of technology waves currently sweeping across humanity, the other two being massive deployment of very smart mobile devices, and ubiquitous high-speed connectivity,” said David Bernstein, IEEE P2301 and IEEE P2302 WG chair, and managing director, Cloud Strategy Partners. “The cloud will tie all of these coming advancements together. We’re truly embarking on a new age of innovation.”

“IEEE is in a uniquely powerful position to impact and shape the face of the burgeoning cloud computing revolution. Driven by a membership dedicated to technology innovation, IEEE continues to set the pace and methodology for contemporary standards development,” said Judith Gorman, managing director, IEEE-SA. “These newest standards will not only follow the consensus-based process championed by IEEE, but will also leverage the latest in technology development best practices, such as live global test beds and open source references. Cloud computing will showcase our ability to deliver exceptional, universally relevant standards created with these leading edge methodologies.”

For more information about IEEE P2301 and IEEE P2302, which are sponsored by the IEEE Computer Society , or to join their respective WGs, please visit the IEEE P2031 page and the IEEE P2032 page.

More information at:  http://standards.ieee.org/news/2011/cloud.html

Another Opinion:

Infoworld is quite skeptical in an article titled:  IEEE’s cloud portability project: A fool’s errand?

” I have my doubts that anything useful will come out of the IEEE efforts in any reasonable timeframe. The other standards groups involved in cloud computing have found that many of the cloud providers are more concerned with driving into a quickly emerging market and being purchased for high multiples than about using standards.”

http://www.infoworld.com/d/cloud-computing/ieees-cloud-portability-project-fools-errand-057?source=footer

Closing Comments:   

So far there’s been no single standards making body or forum that has defined any Cloud Computing standards/ specifications that have been implemented by Cloud Service Providers.  Will this IEEE inititative be any different?  In our opinion, IEEE has not been serious about Cloud Computing (till now) and is starting its two Cloud draft standards very late compared to other organizations.  Note this article pubished 11 months ago references a call for interest in the IEEE Cloud Computing Study Group:

https://techblog.comsoc.org/2010/05/28/itu-cloud-computing-focus-group-and-ieee-cloud-computing-standards-study-group-will-they-fill-the-standards-void

Despite over one year of deliberations, the detailed scope for either of the two Cloud  Working Groups haven’t been defined yet.  The network aspects of Cloud have only been addressed by the ITU-T Focus Group, which is meeting this week in Geneva (see previous articles summarizing their work).  They are discussing over 30 contributions!  We hope that  ITU-T and IEEE can work together and collaborate effectively on Cloud Computing standards, especially the interoperability aspects of IEEE P2302?   However, no IEEE representative has been attending ITU-T FG Cloud meetings.

Nonetheless, we hope that IEEE’s Cloud standards will be successful and not just paper tigers!