Mobile Internet Data Traffic Trends and  Implications for the Wireless Industry

Can the growth of mobile data live up to the hype given the current capacity of wireless networks? Interview with Andrew Odlyzko, Professor of Mathematics at the University of Minnesota and expert on internet traffic patterns and growth.

Introduction:

Due to the success of smart phones, app stores, and open platforms, a strong consensus now holds that mobile data is creating the next telecom revolution.  The volume of data transmitted over mobile wireless networks is skyrocketing, growing at rates over 100% per year. 

But is that growth rate sustainable? Bandwidth per user will continue to be limited by overall 3G-network capacity.  Moreover, considerable CAPEX would be required to upgrade mobile networks to 4G.  Also, most subscribers are unwilling to pay rates in excess of $50 or even $70 per month, which most mobile operators need to get a reasonable ROI .  Yet wireless data growth conjures up "visions of sugar plums" for many telecom professionals and wireless industry stakeholders.

To examine the hype vs.  reality of mobile Internet data growth, we checked in with Professor Andrew Odlyzko – a former AT&T Researcher who exposed the myth of exponential (wireline) Internet traffic growth back in 1998 – just prior to the dot com bust and optical networking melt down.  Odlyzko has been tracking Internet traffic trends for over 12 years.  During most of that time period, the actual traffic growth did not live up to the over-hyped projections.
 

To read the rest of this fascinating interview, please go to:
http://www.wimax.com/commentary/blog/blog-2009/august-2009/mobile-internet-data-implications-for-the-wireless-industry-0816

http://www.wimax.com/commentary/blog/blog-2009/august-2009/why-cellular-carriers-have-not-delivered-on-the-promise-of-the-mobile-internet-0806

Article #2 has been published at:

http://www.wimax.com/commentary/blog/blog-2009/august-2009/how-the-mobile-internet-can-be-realized-through-new-technologies-applications-0810

Here’s the lead-in:Realizing the Mobile Internet- new functions, technology and innovative applications

Abstract:

In the second article resulting from our in depth interview, Siavash Alamouti, CTO of Intel’s Mobile Wireless Group comments on the roadmap, potential new applications, functions, and technical requirements for 4G mobile networks. Specifically, he envisions several intriguing mobile Internet applications and value added services, delineates major performance and feature upgrades for 4G (it is not an evolution from 3G as many think), identifies several technical issues/ problems to be resolved, and explains why LTE is not the panacea many believe it to be.
 

Introduction

While the pump is primed for mobile broadband, significant investments in next-generation broadband wireless networks will be needed to deliver on the promise and potential of the mobile internet experience.   If that is not the case, then all the predictions for explosive mobile Internet growth are a myth- similar to the Internet traffic growth stories of the late 1990s

Read the complete article at:

http://www.wimax.com/commentary/blog/blog-2009/july-2009/growth-of-mobile-broadband-limited-without-investments-in-4g-networks-0729

Alan Weissberger

IEEE ComSoc SCV Vice Chair

Report of IEEE 802.16m Meeting -Session #62 on 13-16 July 2009 in San Francisco, CA

Most notably, the IEEE 802/16 Working Group met a major milestone by agreeing to open a letter ballot on the first draft (P802.16m/D1) under the 802.16m project. The 16m Task Group will issue a request for input on specific technical topics (LBS, E-MBS, Relay, and SON- see below for acronym definitions), to be submitted prior to Session #63 in Jeju, Korea and discussed at Session #63.5 on the big island of Hawaii.

The IEEE 802.16 Session #62 Report summarizes the outcomes:

http://ieee802.org/16/meetings/mtg62/report.html

From Jose Puthenkulam, IEEE 802.16 Vice Chair:

The important news items are:

– The first IEEE 802.16m Draft Standard (D1) will be issued shortly, before August 1st.

– The 802.16 Working Group Letter Ballot on the IEEE 802.16m Draft Standard will start soon after.

– A lot of contributions (60) on 802.16m Femto-cells were submitted last week. Work on Femtocells will continue throughout the letter ballot phase.

– Also optional features like Enhanced Location Based Services (LBS), Enhanced Multicast-Broadcast Services (EMBS), Integrated Relay and Self Organizing Networks (SON) will start being developed soon.

– The IMT-Advanced Proposal development also progressed very well. The complete proposal will be ready by mid September and finalized by the Sept 21-24 Hawaii meeting.

– IEEE 802.16m Systems are expected to deliver performance >300Mbps in 4×4 MIMO configurations using 20MHz channels

From Siavash Alamouti, CTO of Intel’s Mobile Wireless Group – on IEEE 802.16m capabilities in the 2010-2011 timeframe:

-Peak sector throughput over 300 Mbps Downlink* (in a 20 MHz channel)
-TDD & FDD support
-Multi-carrier support; BW of up to 100 MHz
-Increased VoIP capacity
-Even lower link access latencies
-Enhanced coverage
-Enhanced multi-radio coexistence and inter-technology handover
-Integrated multi-hop relay
-Self-organizing base stations
-Increased mobility: Up to 350 km/hr*

*Note: Actual mobility & throughput depends on environmental conditions and Service Provider provisioning. Aggregate peak sector throughput calculated using 20 MHz channel for Downlink.

References for IEEE 802.16m:

http://www.wimax360.com/profiles/blogs/4g-myth-busting-intels-march

http://ewh.ieee.org/r6/scv/comsoc/Talk_032509_WiMAXUpdate.pdf

Observation: It appears that IEEE 802.16m is a lot closer to standardization then 3GPP’s LTE Advanced. If so, it is likely to be implemented sooner – assuming IEEE 802.16e (Mobile WiMAX) is a commercial success.

Alan J Weissberger

IEEE ComSoc SCV Program Chair and Vice Chair

Technology and Entrepreneurship gives rise to the term known as Techpreneurship.