Point Topic: FTTP broadband subs to reach 1.12bn by 2030 in 29 largest markets
Point Topic forecasts 1.39 billion fixed broadband connections by the end of the decade in the 29 largest broadband markets in the world. Fiber to the Premises (FTTP) is already dominating most of the markets and it will be the preferred option for most consumers, where it is available.
Between 2023 and 2030 Point Topic projects a 15% growth in total fixed broadband subscribers in the top 29 markets. The growth will come mainly from FTTP – although the increase in the total fiber lines will be lower than that in Fixed Wireless Access lines – 25% and 61% respectively, the sheer number of already existing and new FTTP connections will drive the total growth.
Figure 1. Fixed broadband lines by technology (Top 29 markets)
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Split by technology we estimate that by 2030 there will be 1.12 billion FTTP, 149 million cable, 79 million FTTX, 16 million FWA[1] and only 28 million DSL lines in these markets.
Figure 2. Change in fixed broadband lines, 2023-2030 (Top 29 markets)Cable is a term used as a proxy for those legacy MSOs/cablecos (e.g. Charter, VMO2, Comcast, etc.) that still have significant networks based on coaxial cable, mainly DOCSIS 3.0 and 3.1. We forecast some decline (-6%) in cable broadband lines by the end of the decade as these networks are being replaced with full fibre. The new generation DOCSIS4, which is in development, will match the capabilities of FTTH with XGPON, so markets with established cable networks will see a slight growth or stable take-up figures for ‘cable’ broadband lines.
FTTX (where fibre is present in the local loop with copper, mainly fiber to the cabinet) will decline over the next seven years (-19%). Some modest growth from new subscribers will remain in a few markets where legacy infrastructure is still widespread. Also, it will remain a cheaper option even where other technologies are available as it still offers enough bandwidth for some users.
DSL will see the largest decline at -44%. However, while being a slower and less reliable solution, it can provide enough bandwidth at a low price to some single or older households that are reluctant to upgrade. Besides, some of them will not have a choice of other technologies, especially in certain regions and markets.
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Figure 3. Fixed broadband penetration, 2023 and 2030 (top 29 markets)
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Point Topic only included FWA in its data in significant markets and where it was able to source reliable figures, such at the U.S., Canada, and Italy. Therefore, the total number of FWA subscribers could end up higher if FWA takes off in other markets.
In the U.S., T-Mobile US and Verizon are the FWA leaders with 8.6 million connections between them as of March 2024. T-Mobile recently added a new FWA service offer to its portfolio aimed at customers who might need a back-up for unreliable fiber or cable connections.
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China will be among the 16 markets with 90%-plus broadband penetration in seven years time. The potential for signing up new customers in those markets will shrink, leaving broadband providers with the task of converting existing customers to higher bandwidths and more advanced technologies for growth.
At the other end of the scale, there is still lots of room for broadband growth. India will have the lowest percentage of premises with a fixed broadband connection by 2030 at 33%, up from just 11% last year.
“There is significant growth to come in the ‘youthful’ markets with low fixed broadband penetration, with plenty of consumers in India, Indonesia and other fast-growing economies hungry for the advantages offered by fixed broadband and full fibre in particular,” Point Topic said.
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References:
https://www.point-topic.com/post/fttp-broadband-subscriber-forecasts-q4-2023
https://www.telecoms.com/fibre/fibre-to-drive-15-broadband-growth-by-2030
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Is the rapid growth of fiber-to-the-premises FTTP broadband subscriptions a sign of progress towards universal internet access or does it raise concerns about potential monopolies and lack of competition in the telecommunications industry? I found this site https://seoconsult.bg but I dont know exactly what to ask and what they should provide me. If you could please suggest :
IEEE Techblog does not advise readers about their internet access issues.