A recent New Street Research broadband trends study suggests that U.S. cablecos (previously called MSOs) aren’t likely to increase the net number of broadband internet subscribers during this decade, but their broadband losses are expected to decrease. The financial market research firm doesn’t anticipate cable broadband subscriber growth to be positive for at least another four to five years. Under New Street’s “base case,” cable broadband net adds will remain negative each year until 2030.   Cable broadband  is facing fierce competition on the high end from fiber to the premises (e.g. AT&T, Frontier/Verizon) and on the lower end from 5G FWA (e.g. T-MobileUS, Verizon).

Cable “is the new copper,” New Street Research analysts David Barden and Vikash Harlalka wrote, implying declining subscribers for xDSL based broadband will also happen to cablecos. Obviously, cablecos won’t like that characterization given that their hybrid fiber/coax (HFC) networks are mostly comprised of fiber. However, declining subscriber trends is not a commentary about the cable industry’s underlying broadband access network technology.

“While we expect cable losses to improve over time, we never have cable adds in aggregate turning positive,” New Street analysts David Barden and Vikash Harlalka wrote in a Tuesday report. “We think most investors agree with us and are not modeling positive subscriber growth for any of the large cable operators over the next 5 years.”

“With industry growth remaining below pre-pandemic levels and FWA adds remaining strong, we don’t expect Cable to grow subscribers this decade. Cable needs industry growth to improve and FWA adds to slow down to return to growth,” New Street’s analysts write in their 140-page report (subscribers only).  

New Street outlines potential scenarios for how cable’s share of the broadband market will look by 2030: 

New Street expects cable’s “steady state terminal market share” to be just a bit higher than 40% across its footprint, down from 62% today.

The report also takes a look at how cable will fare in markets that overlap with fiber. New Street estimates that 75% of cable markets will have a fiber competitor in the years to come. When combining non-fiber and fiber markets, cable is expected to capture about 41% of the share in their footprints. That compares to fiber (34%), FWA (20%), DSL (2%) and satellite broadband (3%).

It only gets worse for cablecos, as their customer net promoter scores (NPS) [1.] are lower than their competitors (mostly telcos). Using data from Recon Analytics’ weekly survey of about 10,000 respondents, New Street’s study notes there’s a pronounced customer NPS gap for cable against its primary broadband rivals.  Customer NPS scores from Comcast (2) and Charter (1) are just above water compared to Cox Communications (-1) and Optimum Communications (-8). Fiber providers are doing much better: AT&T Fiber (25), Verizon Fios (21), Frontier (17) and Lumen Fiber (1). FWA also holds a sizable customer NPS advantage: T-Mobile (31) and Verizon FWA (29).

Note 1. NPS is a customer loyalty metric that measures the likelihood of customers recommending a company to a friend or colleague, using a scale of \(0\)-\(10\). The score is calculated by subtracting the percentage of “detractors” (those who score \(0\)-\(6\)) from the percentage of “promoters” (those who score \(9\)-\(10\)), with “passives” (those who score \(7\)-\(8\)) not being factored into the final score. NPS is a single, easy-to-understand number that ranges from \(-100\) to \(+100\) and is used to gauge customer satisfaction and predict business growth. Customers are asked, “On a scale of \(0\)-\(10\), how likely are you to recommend [company] to a friend or colleague?”

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Considering all types of broadband access, New Street expects total net U.S. broadband net adds of 1.6 million, up from the 1.2 million from an earlier estimate. Fueled by fiber and FWA, net broadband subscriber adds are expected to continue above that level through 2030.

That growth will continue even as the market becomes increasingly saturated. New Street forecasts 139 million Internet households in 2030, up from 133 million at the end of 2025. Broadband penetration is expected to reach 93% by 2030, up from 87.7% at the end of 2025.

New Street expects U.S. network service providers to have 32 million to 36 million FWA subscribers in the coming years. However, the forecast expects a slight slowdown in FWA sub adds in 2026, coming in just below the range of 3.7 million to 3.8 million seen over the past three years. Next year, New Street expects FWA subscriber adds of 3.6 million (1.7 million for T-Mobile, 1 million for Verizon and 900,000 for AT&T). The analysts  estimate that the carriers currently have enough capacity to support about 32 million FWA subs, estimating that carriers have already consumed about 55% of total capacity with new subs. That estimate does not include potential capacity coming from the upcoming auction of upper C-Band spectrum. That auction could provide capacity for another 4 million or so additional FWA subs, New Street said.

• Intense Competition: Cable operators are losing subscribers to FTTH, which offers faster speeds and higher reliability, and FWA services, which often appeal to customers seeking lower-priced or easily installed options.
• Market Saturation and Demographics: The broadband market is becoming increasingly saturated, and a slowdown in new household formation and people moving is curbing a key driver of new broadband connections.
• End of Government Subsidies: The expiration of government programs like the Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP) is impacting subscriber numbers, with major cable operators losing customers who relied on the subsidy.
• Network Upgrades: Cable companies are investing in network upgrades, such as DOCSIS 4.0, to improve speeds and performance, but it is not yet clear if these upgrades will significantly boost subscriber numbers.

Other Analyst Opinions:

• MoffettNathanson sees flattish cable broadband subscriber growth for the next couple of years, with  a small gain in 2028.   The firm projects subscriber losses in legacy markets will be eventually offset by gains from rural expansions and edge-out builds.  “The conclusion for the two [Comcast and Charter] is about the same: even a near worst-case scenario yields roughly flat subscribership over the next five years or so,” Moffett wrote. “That’s a far cry from the doomsday scenarios we typically hear for the bear case.”

• In February 2025, Wolfe Research estimated that total industry net broadband additions for 2025 would be under 2 million, with cable providers bearing much of the slowdown.
• Grand View Research forecasts the global broadband services market (all connection types) to reach ~ US$ 875 billion by 2030, growing ~ 9.8% per year from 2025. In North America, broadband services revenue is expected to grow at ~ 8.3% CAGR from 2025 to 2030.
• Mordor Intelligence forecasts that the global market for hybrid-fiber coaxial (HFC — the backbone for many cable networks) will grow a 7.6% CAGR from $14.96 billion in 2025 to ~ $21.58 billion in 2030.
• An Ericsson analysis noted a projected decline of around 150 million DSL and cable connections globally between 2024 and 2030, with most growth coming from fiber, FWA, and satellite.

References:

https://www.lightreading.com/cable-technology/ouch-broadband-study-casts-cable-as-the-new-copper-

https://www.lightreading.com/cable-technology/cable-broadband-faces-a-flat-future-not-doomsday

https://telcomagazine.com/top10/top-10-global-fxxt-companies-in-telecoms

https://broadbandbreakfast.com/cable-unlikely-to-grow-subscribers-this-decade-new-street/

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