Will the wave of AI generated user-to/from-network traffic increase spectacularly as Cisco and Nokia predict?
Network operators are bracing themselves for a wave of AI traffic, partially based on a RtBrick survey, as well as forecasts by Cisco and Nokia, but that hasn’t happened yet. The heavy AI traffic today is East to West (or vice-versa) within cloud resident AI data centers and for AI data center interconnects.
1. Cisco believes that AI Inference agents will soon engage “continuously” with end-users, keeping traffic levels consistently high. has stated that AI will greatly increase network traffic, citing a shift toward new, more demanding traffic patterns driven by “agentic AI” and other applications. This perspective is a core part of Cisco’s business strategy, which is focused on selling the modernized infrastructure needed to handle the coming surge. Cisco identified three stages of AI-driven traffic growth, each with different network demands:
- Today’s generative AI models produce “spikey” traffic which spikes up when a user submits a query, but then returns to a low baseline. Current networks are largely handling this traffic without issues.
- Persistent “agentic” AI traffic: The next phase will involve AI agents that constantly interact with end-users and other agents. Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins has stated that this will drive traffic “beyond the peaks of current chatbot interaction” and keep network levels “consistently high”.
- Edge-based AI: A third wave of “physical AI” will require more computing and networking at the edge of the network to accommodate specialized use cases like industrial IoT.
“As we move towards agentic AI and the demand for inferencing expands to the enterprise and end user networking environments, traffic on the network will reach unprecedented levels,” Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins said on the company’s recent earnings call. “Network traffic will not only increase beyond the peaks of current chatbot interaction, but will remain consistently high with agents in constant interaction.”
2. Nokia recently predicted that both direct and indirect AI traffic on mobile networks will grow at a faster pace than regular, non-AI traffic.
- Direct AI traffic: This is generated by users or systems directly interacting with AI services and applications. Consumer examples: Using generative AI tools, interacting with AI-powered gaming, or experiencing extended reality (XR) environments. Enterprise examples: Employing predictive maintenance, autonomous operations, video and image analytics, or enhanced customer interactions.
- Indirect AI traffic: This occurs when AI algorithms are used to influence user engagement with existing services, thereby increasing overall traffic. Examples: AI-driven personalized recommendations for video content on social media, streaming platforms, and online marketplaces, which can lead to longer user sessions and higher bandwidth consumption.
The Finland based network equipment vendor warned that the AI wave could bring “a potential surge in uplink data traffic that could overwhelm our current network infrastructure if we’re not prepared,” noting that the rise of hybrid on-device and cloud tools will require much more than the 5-15 Mbps uplink available on today’s networks. Nokia’s Global Network Traffic 2030 report forecasts that overall traffic could grow by 5 to 9 times current levels by 2033. All told, Nokia said AI traffic is expected to hit 1088 exabytes (EB) per month by 2033. That means overall traffic will grow 5x in a best case scenario and 9x in a worse case.
To manage this anticipated traffic surge, Nokia advocates for radical changes to existing network infrastructure.
- Cognitive networks: The company states that networks must become “cognitive,” leveraging AI and machine learning (ML) to handle the growing data demand.
- Network-as-Code: As part of its Technology Strategy 2030, Nokia promotes a framework for more flexible and scalable networks that leverage AI and APIs.
- 6G preparation: Nokia Bell Labs is already conducting research and field tests to prepare for 6G networks around 2030, with a focus on delivering the capacity needed for AI and other emerging technologies.
- Optimizing the broadband edge: The company also highlights the need to empower the broadband network edge to handle the demands of AI applications, which require low latency and high reliability.
Nokia’s Global Network Traffic 2030 report didn’t mention agentic AI, which are artificial intelligence systems designed to autonomously perceive, reason, and act in their environment to achieve complex goals with less human oversight. Unlike generative AI, which focuses on creating content, agentic AI specializes in workflow automation and independent problem-solving by making decisions, adapting plans, and executing tasks over extended periods to meet long-term objectives.
3. Ericsson did point to traffic increases stemming from the use of AI-based assistants in its 2024 Mobility Report. In particular, it predicted the majority of traffic would be related to the use of consumer video AI assistants, rather than text-based applications and – outside the consumer realm – forecast increased traffic from “AI agents interacting with drones and droids. Accelerated consumer uptake of GenAI will cause a steady increase of traffic in addition to the baseline increase,” Ericsson said of its traffic growth scenario.
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Dissenting Views:
1. UK Disruptive Analysis Founder Dean Bubley isn’t a proponent of huge AI traffic growth. “Many in the telecom industry and vendor community are trying to talk up AI as driving future access network traffic and therefore demand for investment, spectrum etc., but there is no evidence of this at present,” he told Fierce Network.
Bubley argues that AI agents won’t really create much traffic on access networks to homes or businesses. Instead, he said, they will drive traffic “inside corporate networks, and inside and between data centers on backbone networks and inside the cloud. “There might be a bit more uplink traffic if video/images are sent to the cloud for AI purposes, but again that’s hypothetical,” he said.
2. In a LinkedIn post, Ookla analyst Mike Dano said he was a bit suspicious about “Cisco predicting a big jump in network traffic due to AI agents constantly wandering around the Internet and doing things.” While almost all of the comments agreed with Dano, it still is an open question whether the AI traffic Armageddon will actually materialize.
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References:
RtBrick survey: Telco leaders warn AI and streaming traffic to “crack networks” by 2030
https://www.fierce-network.com/cloud/will-ai-agents-really-raise-network-traffic-baseline
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Unlike generative AI, which focuses on creating content, agentic AI specializes in workflow automation and independent problem-solving by making decisions, adapting plans, and executing tasks over extended periods to meet long-term objectives.
Ultimately, a lot hinges on the deployment model of these AI agents—whether they run locally, on edge devices, or rely heavily on cloud inference.