Dell’Oro Group just completed its 1Q-2025 Radio Access Network (RAN) report. Initial findings suggest that after two years of steep declines, market conditions improved in the quarter. Preliminary estimates show that worldwide RAN revenue, excluding services, stabilized year-over-year, resulting in the first growth quarter since 1Q-2023.  Author Stefan Pongratz attributes the improved conditions to favorable regional mix and easy comparisons (investments were very low same quarter lasts year), rather than a change to the fundamentals that shape the RAN market.

Pongratz believes the long-term trajectory has not changed. “While it is exciting that RAN came in as expected and the full year outlook remains on track, the message we have communicated for some time now has not changed. The RAN market is still growth-challenged as regional 5G coverage imbalances, slower data traffic growth, and monetization challenges continue to weigh on the broader growth prospects,” he added.

Vendor rankings haven’t changed much in several years, as per this table:

Additional highlights from the 1Q 2025 RAN report:
– Strong growth in North America was enough to offset declines in CALA, China, and MEA.
– The picture is less favorable outside of North America. RAN, excluding North America, recorded a fifth consecutive quarter of declines.
– Revenue rankings did not change in 1Q 2025. The top 5 RAN suppliers (4-Quarter Trailing) based on worldwide revenues are Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE, and Samsung.
– The top 5 RAN (4-Quarter Trailing) suppliers based on revenues outside of China are Ericsson, Nokia, Huawei, Samsung, and ZTE.
– The short-term outlook is mostly unchanged, with total RAN expected to remain stable in 2025 and RAN outside of China growing at a modest pace.

About the Report

Dell’Oro Group’s RAN Quarterly Report offers a complete overview of the RAN industry, with tables covering manufacturers’ and market revenue for multiple RAN segments including 5G NR Sub-7 GHz, 5G NR mmWave, LTE, macro base stations and radios, small cells, Massive MIMO, Open RAN, and vRAN. The report also tracks the RAN market by region and includes a four-quarter outlook. To purchase this report, please contact us by email at [email protected]

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Separately, Pongrantz says “there is great skepticism about AI’s ability to reverse the flat revenue trajectory that has defined network operators throughout the 4G and 5G cycles.”

The 3GPP AI/ML activities and roadmap are mostly aligned with the broader efficiency aspects of the AI RAN vision, primarily focused on automation, management data analytics (MDA), SON/MDT, and over-the-air (OTA) related work (CSI, beam management, mobility, and positioning).

Current AI/ML activities align well with the AI-RAN Alliance’s vision to elevate the RAN’s potential with more automation, improved efficiencies, and new monetization opportunities. The AI-RAN Alliance envisions three key development areas: 1) AI and RAN – improving asset utilization by using a common shared infrastructure for both RAN and AI workloads, 2) AI on RAN – enabling AI applications on the RAN, 3) AI for RAN – optimizing and enhancing RAN performance. Or from an operator standpoint, AI offers the potential to boost revenue or reduce capex and opex.

While operators generally don’t consider AI the end destination, they believe more openness, virtualization, and intelligence will play essential roles in the broader RAN automation journey.

Operators are not revising their topline growth or mobile data traffic projections upward as a result of AI growing in and around the RAN. Disappointing 4G/5G returns and the failure to reverse the flattish carrier revenue trajectory is helping to explain the increased focus on what can be controlled — AI RAN is currently all about improving the performance/efficiency and reducing opex.

Since the typical gains demonstrated so far are in the 10% to 30% range for specific features, the AI RAN business case will hinge crucially on the cost and power envelope—the risk appetite for growing capex/opex is limited.

The AI-RAN business case using new hardware is difficult to justify for single-purpose tenancy. However, if the operators can use the resources for both RAN and non-RAN workloads and/or the accelerated computing cost comes down (NVIDIA recently announced ARC-Compact, an AI-RAN solution designed for D-RAN), the TAM could expand. For now, the AI service provider vision, where carriers sell unused capacity at scale, remains somewhat far-fetched, and as a result, multi-purpose tenancy is expected to account for a small share of the broader AI RAN market over the near term.

In short, improving something already done by 10% to 30% is not overly exciting. However, suppose AI embedded in the radio signal processing can realize more significant gains or help unlock new revenue opportunities by improving site utilization and providing telcos with an opportunity to sell unused RAN capacity. In that case, there are reasons to be excited. But since the latter is a lower-likelihood play, the base case expectation is that AI RAN will produce tangible value-add, and the excitement level is moderate — or as the Swedes would say, it is lagom.

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Editor’s Note:

ITU-R WP 5D is working on aspects related to AI in the Radio Access Network (RAN) as part of its IMT-2030 (6G) recommendations.  IMT-2030 is expected to consider an appropriate AI-native new air interface that uses to the extent practicable, and proved demonstrated actionable AI to enhance the performance of radio interface functions such as symbol detection/decoding, channel estimation etc. An appropriate AI-native radio network would enable automated and intelligent networking services such as intelligent data perception, supply of on-demand capability etc. Radio networks that support applicable AI services would be fundamental to the design of IMT technologies to serve various AI applications, and the proposed directions include on-demand uplink/sidelink-centric, deep edge, and distributed machine learning.

In summary:

• ITU-R WP5D recognizes AI as one of the key technology trends for IMT-2030 (6G).
• This includes “native AI,” which encompasses both AI-enabled air interface design and radio network for AI services.
• AI is expected to play a crucial role in enhancing the capabilities and performance of 6G networks. 

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References:

RAN Stabilizes in 1Q 2025, According to Dell’Oro Group

AI RAN – Should We Be Excited?

Dell’Oro: Private RAN revenue declines slightly, but still doing relatively better than public RAN and WLAN markets

ITU-R WP 5D reports on: IMT-2030 (“6G”) Minimum Technology Performance Requirements; Evaluation Criteria & Methodology

https://www.itu.int/dms_pubrec/itu-r/rec/m/R-REC-M.2160-0-202311-I!!PDF-E.pdf