Mist
HPE-Juniper combo + Cisco restructuring create enterprise network uncertainty
Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s (HPE) pending acquisition of Juniper Networks and Cisco’s recent corporate restructuring (which de-emphasizes legacy networking products like access/core routers and Ethernet switches) is putting enterprise networking customers in a holding pattern. They are pausing investments in network equipment as they wait out the uncertainty.
“I’ve had customers put things on hold right now, and not just the Juniper side but both sides,” Andre Kindness, principal analyst at Forrester Research, said in an interview with SDxCentral about how Juniper and HPE customers are reacting to uncertainty around the deal. “Typically, if customers are strong enough to look outside of Cisco and they’re not a Cisco shop, then HPE, Aruba, Juniper are the primary ones that they’re looking at. I’ve had customers put some of that on hold at this point.”
That holding pattern is tied to uncertainty over what systems and platforms will emerge from a combined HPE-Juniper. Mr. Kindness noted in a blog post when the deal was announced that “the journey ahead will be rife with obstacles for Juniper and HPE/Aruba customers alike.” Kindness explained that one important move for HPE would be to “rationalize/optimize the portfolio, the products and the solutions.”
“HPE will try to reassure you that nothing will change; it doesn’t make sense to keep everything, especially the multiple AP [access point] product lines (Instant On, Mist, and Aruba Aps), all the routing and switching operating systems (Juno, AOS-CX, and ArubaOS) and both management systems (Central and Mist),” Kindness wrote.
“Though not immediately, products will need to go and the hardware that stays will need to be changed to accommodate cloud-based management, monitoring, and AI.” HPE CEO Antonio Neri and his management team has attempted to temper these concerns by stating there is virtually no overlap between HPE and Juniper’s product lines, which Kindness said, “just boggles my mind,” he added.
Juniper’s AI product, called Marvis (part of the Mist acquisition in 2019), is by far the most advanced AI solution in the networking market. That’s not a profound statement; no vendor has anything close to it. The quick history: Juniper’s acquisition of Mist brought the company a cloud-based Wi-Fi solution with a leading AI capability, Marvis. Juniper quickly started integrating its switching and routing portfolio into Marvis. Walmart, Amazon, and others took notice. Fast-forward to today: This gives HPE Aruba a two-year lead against its competitors by bringing Juniper into the fold.
“I think [Neri’s] got to worry about the financial analyst out there in the stock market or the shareholders to pacify them, and then at the same time you don’t want to scare the bejesus out of your customer base, or Juniper customer base, so you’re going to say that there’s going to be either no overlap or no changes, everything will coexist,” Kindness said.
While overlap and other concerns could alter what a potential Juniper HPE combo looks like, Kindness said he expects the result to lean heavily on Juniper’s telecom and networking assets. That includes HPE products like Aruba networking gear being replaced by Juniper’s artificial intelligence (AI)-focused Mist and Marvis platforms.
“Mist has been really a game changer for the company and just really opened a lot of doors,” Kindness explained. “[Juniper] really did a 180 degree turn when they bought [Mist], and just the revenue that’s brought in and the expansion of the product line itself, and the capabilities of Mist and actually Marvis in the background would be hard for [HPE] to replicate at this point. My perception was HPE looked at it and said, Marvis and Mist is just something that would take too long to get to.” Kindness added that he does not expect significant platform thinning to happen for a couple of years after a potential closing of the deal, but the interim could be filled with challenges tied to channel partners and go-to-market strategies that could chip away at market opportunities similar to what is happening at VMware following the Broadcom acquisition. “Broadcom is ruthless, right or wrong, it’s its business model,” Kindness said. “HPE is not quite that dynamic.”
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Cisco CFO Scott Herren told the audience at a recent investor conference that HPE’s pending Juniper acquisition is causing “uncertainty” in the enterprise WLAN market that could be benefit Cisco. “I think for sure that’s created just a degree of uncertainty and a question of, hey, should I consider if I was previously a vendor or a customer of either of those, now is the time to kind of open up and look at other opportunities,” Herren said. “And we’ve seen our wireless business, our orders greater than $1 million grew more than 20% in the fourth quarter.”
Cisco is also working through its own networking drama as part of the vendor’s recently announced restructuring process. Those moves will see Cisco focus more on high-growth areas like AI, security, and cloud at the expense of its legacy operations, including the pairing down of its networking product lines.
“It looks like Cisco’s realizing that all the complexity of customer choice and all these variations and offering a zillion features is probably not the way to go. I think Chuck realized it,” Kindness said of Cisco’s efforts. “If you look at the ACI [Application Centric Infrastructure] and Cloud Dashboard for Nexus starting to consolidate, and then the Catalyst line and the Aironet line and the Meraki line are consolidating, it’s just the right move. The market has told them that for the last 10 years, it just took them a while to recognize it.”
References:
https://www.juniper.net/us/en.html
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