Omdia
Nokia & Omdia: 5G could bring up to $3.3 trillion to Latin America by 2035- vs 13% of mobile subs in 2025?
Executive Summary:
5G services could bring up to $3.3 trillion to Latin America by 2035, according to a new study by Nokia and research firm Omdia. The study, titled ‘Why 5G in Latin America?’ notes the uncertainty around the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic – yet alongside the projected $3.3 trillion in economic and social value promised by 5G, a $9 trillion improvement in productivity is also predicted.
We question what this optimistic forecast is based on since we haven’t been able to identify any real 5G use cases with current and near future 5G deployments.
Latin American operators have been relatively silent, apart from some trials, a deployment in Uruguay, and recent soft launches using DSS in Brazil.
This caution is understandable considering the late adoption of 4G. Omdia estimates that 4G in Latin America is about 52% of lines and 3G about a third (as of year-end 2019). Even 2G remains important at 13%, and it will not disappear until well after 2024.
To ignore the potential of 5G is to miss a considerable opportunity or leave it to one’s competitors, according to Omdia. This report shows the opportunity in the mass market, as a fixed broadband substitute, and in the enterprise market. The mass-market opportunity is based on the immersive technologies powered by 5G that will take our digital experiences to the next level and beyond.
The enterprise opportunity is less familiar because it has not been as important a play in 3G and 4G as Omdia believes it will be in 5G. All Latin American enterprises must explore digital transformation to remain competitive in the rapidly evolving global economy. Latin American governments must transform themselves and, more importantly, encourage digital transformation in their economies to improve productivity and return the region to real growth in income per capita.
5G is not an option but an imperative, and this report discusses what service providers and policy makers must do to get ready. There is a brief overview in the Appendix for those who would like to understand more about 5G technology.
The pandemic can be seen as a major opportunity point for digitisation of essential sectors, such as healthcare and emergency services, manufacturing, and the supply chain. Yet a major roadblock remains; a gap between the haves and have-nots for broadband penetration and connectivity.
This is similar to the reports from the Asia Cloud Computing Association (ACCA) regarding the Asia Pacific region; countries such as China and India score poorly because of the disparity between the rich and poor regions. Brazil, another BRIC region, is therefore set to be a major beneficiary according to the report; $1.22tn of 5G economic impact and an increase in productivity of just over $3 trillion.
The report outlines recommendations for service providers, particularly with regard to upgrading 4G to make it 5G-ready. Policy makers, meanwhile, are encouraged to finish allocating 4G spectrum to enable a ‘clear spectrum policy roadmap and an infrastructure policy which both encourages and facilitates the private sector to invest in 5G.’
“Latin American countries must diversify their sources of income and jobs into higher value-added activities,” said Wally Swain, principal consultant for Omdia Latin America. “Activities including mining and manufacturing must become more productive and 5G will play an important role on this.”
It is too early to be definitive about how COVID-19 will change behaviors and the patterns of 5G adoption in Latin America. But it seems clear that increased demand for broadband can only help the 5G business case, especially in FWA for homes and businesses. Because of the pandemic, there is a clear need for digitalization of essential sectors such as healthcare, emergency services, manufacturing, and supply chain.
The need for better-quality emergency communications will encourage the deployment of network slices, a key feature of the coming versions of 5G. In the future of what is often called Industry 4.0, a large part of the new value creation will be around the ability for humans to remotely see, understand, manage, operate, fix, and generally interact with all manner of physical systems and machines, and that will be possible with 5G.
Conclusions:
It is too early to be definitive about how COVID-19 will change behaviors and the patterns of 5G adoption in Latin America. But it seems clear that increased demand for broadband can only help the 5G business case, especially in FWA for homes and businesses. Because of the pandemic, there is a clear need for digitalization of essential sectors such as healthcare, emergency services, manufacturing, and supply chain.
The need for better-quality emergency communications will encourage the deployment of network slices, a key feature of the coming versions of 5G. In the future of what is often called Industry 4.0, a large part of the new value creation will be around the ability for humans to remotely see, understand, manage, operate, fix, and generally interact with all manner of physical systems and machines, and that will be possible with 5G.
You can read the full Omdia report here (name and email address required)
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According to Ebanx Labs, 5G will represent 13% of mobile connections in Latin America in 2025, according to the Ericsson Mobility Report. The survey indicates the first 5G network deployments are expected during 2020 in the region, with Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico to be the pioneer countries.
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References:
5G could bring up to $3.3 trillion to Latin America by 2035, says Nokia and Omdia
