Who will be the big bidders at upcoming FCC C-band and AWS auctions?
Under new chairman Brendan Carr, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) plans to open up more C-band (3.98-4.2 GHz) spectrum for 5G, recalling a golden age of spectrum awards that brought in tens of billions of dollars. The first C-band auction, which drew to a close in early 2021, brought in a staggering US$94 billion. Verizon made headlines by shelling out $52.9 billion at the auction, including incentive payments and clearing costs, so naturally there is talk of whether it will look to repeat its performance in the next C-band sale. But until we have more information it’s all just speculation. “In 2020, the FCC conducted the most successful auction in history when it released 280 megahertz of mid-band spectrum in the C-band for 5G,” Carr wrote, in a blog post.
At its upcoming February 25, 2025 Open Commission Meeting, the FCC (among other things) will:
- Enhancing National Security Though the Auctioning of Spectrum Licenses
The Commission will consider a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking that would update 10 year-old AWS-3 service-specific competitive bidding rules to bring those rules in line with current practice as the first step in fulfilling the Commission’s statutory obligation to initiate an auction of licenses for the AWS-3 spectrum in the Commission’s inventory by June 23, 2026, under the Spectrum and Secure Technology and Innovation Act. (GN Docket Nos. 25-70, 25-71, 13-185) - Exploring New Uses for Mid-Band Spectrum in the Upper C-band
The Commission will consider a Notice of Inquiry exploring whether, and if so how, we could free up additional mid-band spectrum for new services in the Upper C-band to meet projected spectrum demand, spur economic growth, and advance American security interests. (GN Docket No. 25-59)
CTIA – the U.S. wireless industry’s primary trade group – quickly cheered the news: “We applaud Chairman Carr for his swift action in exploring how best to make the upper C-band available for 5G wireless commercial use,” CTIA CEO Meredith Attwell Baker said in a statement. However, Carr didn’t specifically say whether that C-band 2.0 auction would be for 5G. “We will vote on a notice of inquiry that asks whether the commission should open up additional portions of the C-band (3.98-4.2 GHz) for more intensive use. We want to hear your views,” Carr wrote.
Elon Musk’s SpaceX and the major U.S. 5G telcos (AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile) have expressed interest in upper C-band spectrum. SpaceX said in January that the FCC should develop “a modernized sharing framework” for the upper C-band, presumably so that it could be used by both satellite operators (like SpaceX) and terrestrial operators (like AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile).
“Establishing a modernized sharing framework for the upper C-band that welcomes multiple new entrants is essential to solidify American leadership in 6G, which will interweave terrestrial and satellite networks into a seamless consumer experience,” SpaceX wrote. Politico noted that FCC’s Carr – has been developing ties to Musk.
“While the outcome is far from certain, we give an edge to the wireless interests,” wrote Blair Levin, a policy adviser to New Street Research and a former high-level FCC official, in a recent note to investors. “In this administration it appears that ‘whatever Elon wants, Elon gets.’ So, it is difficult to have conviction on the outcome.” Indeed, there are plenty of ways for the FCC to handle the upper C-band situation. Levin wrote, “There are multiple compromises available, such as allocating some to exclusive and some to satellite sharing or getting back more spectrum from the current users,” he wrote.
Other industry watchers are unsure about SpaceX vs wireless industry C-band spectrum bidding:
- “It’s unclear whether SpaceX could overcome the wireless lobby’s desire for more terrestrial spectrum,” analyst Tim Farrar, with TMF Associates, told Light Reading.
- “The upper C-band is an enormous opportunity to unleash additional spectrum for mobile 5G, for LEO [low-Earth orbit] satellite direct-to-device connectivity, or for a combination of both,” Michael Calabrese told Light Reading. Calabrese is director of the Wireless Future Project, which is part of New America’s Open Technology Institute think tank. Calabrese said that FCC Chairman Brendan Carr “is wise to open a notice of inquiry to explore what form of repurposing or sharing will best promote innovation and the connectivity needs of the future. The one certainty is that the 220 megahertz in C-band that was not repurposed five years ago should be a priority for reallocation to a higher and better use today.”
–>The previous C-band sale may have been the peak of wireless network operator spectrum spending, but we could see the big players pony up a significant amount of cash again in the next year or so at FCC auctions.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Mr. Carr also talked about an upcoming AWS-3 frequency auction, indicating that it is on track to take place by mid-2026 as required by law. In one of his first official statements as the new chairman of the FCC, Carr said he plans to auction AWS-3 spectrum before the end of next year. He added that the commission would consider holding another auction of C-band spectrum.
“This month, we will vote to kickstart the process for reauctioning a large number of AWS-3 spectrum licenses that have sat in inventory for years. This auction will be a win-win. It brings new spectrum into play for commercial use. And the proceeds from this auction will also cover the costs of the national security initiative known as “rip and replace”—an effort that is removing untrustworthy technology, like Huawei and ZTE gear, from networks. Specifically, our AWS-3 notice of proposed rulemaking will ensure that the Commission is on track to meet its statutory obligation to complete this auction by June 23, 2026.’
Those auctions will help pay for Rip and Replace (mostly Huawei network equipment) from U.S. telco networks. The Rip and Replace program was created in 2020 to remove Chinese components from U.S. wireless communications systems. The Rip and Replace fund needs an additional $3B in order to finish its mission.
AT&T is the most likely to spend big on the AWS-3 spectrum sale, given that it has less mid-band spectrum than its rivals, and CEO John Stankey has already expressed interest in the airwaves.
References:
https://www.telecoms.com/spectrum/new-fcc-chair-looks-to-repeat-c-band-mega-auction
https://broadbandbreakfast.com/fcc-to-vote-on-aws-auction-inquiry-into-upper-c-band-2/
https://www.lightreading.com/5g/could-elon-grab-some-of-5g-s-spectrum-
https://www.lightreading.com/5g/carr-hands-a-spectrum-gift-to-5g-industry
https://www.ctia.org/news/ctia-statement-on-chairman-carrs-announcement-on-upper-c-band
https://www.fcc.gov/February2025