Dell’Oro: Market Forecasts Decreased for Mobile Core Network and Private Wireless RANs

According to a newly published Dell’Oro Group report,  Mobile Core Network (MCN) market growth will be decreasing. Worldwide MCN 5-year growth is now forecasted at a 2% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR), compared to our January 2022 forecast of 3% CAGR.

“The July 2022 forecast is more conservative than the January 2022 forecast due to industry headwinds, including supply chain challenges, higher inflation, an impending recession, Mobile Network Operators’ (MNO) challenges to increase revenues, and regional political conflicts,” said Dave Bolan, Research Director at Dell’Oro Group. “As a result, we reduced the 2022 to 2026 cumulative revenue forecast by 6 percent, decreasing revenues by $3.2 B. The July 2022 cumulative revenue forecast (2022-2026) is now $50.3 B resulting in a 2 percent CAGR.

“We are tracking the number of 5G Standalone (5G SA) MBB networks that have been launched commercially by MNOs. In the first half of 2022, only three new 5G SA networks were launched, KDDI in Japan, DISH Wireless in the US, and China Broadnet in China bringing the total deployed around the world to 27 MNO 5G SA MBB networks,” Bolan added.

Additional highlights from the MCN 5-Year July 2022 Forecast report:

  • Year-over-year (Y/Y) MCN revenue growth rates for each year in the forecast are positive but will decrease each year; by 2026, Y/Y revenues will be essentially flat.
  • MCN market CAGR forecast by industry segments we expect 5G MCN to be 21 percent, 4G MCN -20 percent, IMS Core 2 percent, and the User Plane Function (UPF) required for Multi-access Edge Computing (MEC) 67 percent.
  • The North America and China regions are expected to have the lowest CAGRs, while EuropeMiddle East, and Africa (EMEA), and Asia Pacific without China regions are expected to have the highest CAGRs.

Dell’Oro Group’s Mobile Core Network & Multi-Access Edge Computing 5-Year January Forecast Report offers a complete overview of the market for Wireless Packet Core including MEC for the User Plane Function, Policy, Subscriber Data Management, and IMS Core with historical data, where applicable, to the present. The report provides a comprehensive overview of market trends by network function implementation (Non-NFV and NFV), covering revenue, licenses, average selling price, and regional forecasts for various network functions. To learn more about this report, please contact us at [email protected]

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In a related Dell’Oro “Private Wireless Advanced Research Report,” Stefan Pongranz states that private wireless radio access network (RAN) shipments and revenues are  coming in below expectations, resulting in another decreased forecast.

“We have not made any changes to the potential market calculations and still estimate private wireless is a massive opportunity,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group.  “At the same time, the message we have communicated for some time still holds – we still envision the enterprise and industrial play is a long game. This taken together with the fact that the standalone LTE/5G market is developing at a slower pace than previously expected forms the basis for the near-term downgrade,” continued Pongratz.

Additional highlights from the Private Wireless Advanced Research Report:

  • Private wireless projections have been revised downward to reflect weaker than expected progress with private wireless LTE and 5G small cells.
  • Total private wireless RAN revenues, including macro and small cells, are projected to roughly double between 2022 and 2026.
  • Standalone private LTE/5G is now expected to account for a low single-digit share of the total RAN market by 2026.

 About the Report

Dell’Oro Group’s Private Wireless Advanced Research Report with a 5-year forecast includes projections for Private Wireless RAN by RF Output Power, technology, spectrum, and region. To purchase this report, please contact us at [email protected].

About Dell’Oro Group

Dell’Oro Group is a market research firm that specializes in strategic competitive analysis in the telecommunications, enterprise networks, data center infrastructure, and network security markets. Our firm provides in-depth quantitative data and qualitative analysis to facilitate critical, fact-based business decisions. For more information, contact Dell’Oro Group at +1.650.622.9400 or visit www.delloro.com.

References:

Industry Headwinds to Decrease Mobile Core Network Market Growth, According to Dell’Oro Group

Private Wireless Forecast Adjusted Downward, According to Dell’Oro Group

 

Dell’Oro: Mobile Core Network market driven by 5G SA networks in China

According to a recently published report from Dell’Oro Group, the total Mobile Core Network (MCN) and Multi-access Edge Computing (MEC) market revenues for 1Q 2022 rebounded to a positive year-over-year (Y/Y) growth rate after the decrease in 4Q 2021 which was the first decrease since 4Q 2017.

The MCN market growth was driven by an extremely high double-digit percentage Y/Y revenue growth rate in the 5G MCN market overcoming the Y/Y revenue declines in the 4G MCN and IMS Core markets. For the MCN market regionally, the China region had a high growth rate while the MCN market excluding China had a negative growth rate for the quarter.

“With the continued aggressive build-out of 5G Standalone (SA) networks in China, the China region in 1Q 2022 substantially increased its share of the 5G MCN market over last quarter,’ stated Dave Bolan, Research Director at Dell’Oro Group. “At the end of 1Q 2022, we have identified 25 Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) that have commercially launched 5G SA Mobile Broadband networks (MBB) with services available to consumers. The 5G Core vendors (in alphabetical order) include Cisco, Ericsson, Huawei, NEC, Nokia, Samsung, and ZTE. We have identified 150 MNOs with 5G Core contracts with the above vendors plus Mavenir. There are still more 5G Core contracts that vendors have acknowledged without revealing the associated MNOs.

We see fewer 5G Core network launches slated for 2022 as compared to 2021 when 16 networks were launched. However, many are being readied for 2023 launches and we project mid-single-digit percentage Y/Y growth rates for the balance of 2022. One of the most anticipated and publicized 5G Core launches is Dish Wireless – the first to run 5G Core on the Public Cloud. The company is preparing to launch in many cities by mid-June 2022 to meet regulatory coverage requirements. In early May 2022, Dish had a soft launch in its first city, Las Vegas. Nokia is the primary 5G Core vendor.

“Multi-access Edge Computing deployed by MNOs has barely scratched the surface in spite of all the hype, except for the China region, which has deployed thousands of MEC nodes throughout their MNO networks, with a mix of Public MEC and Private MEC sites,” continued Bolan.

Additional highlights from the 1Q 2022 Mobile Core Network and Multi-Access Edge Computing Report:

  • The top two vendors for the MCN, 4G MCN, and IMS Core markets were Huawei and Ericsson.
  • The top two vendors for the 5G MCN market were Huawei and ZTE.
  • Nokia and Ericsson had the highest Y/Y growth rates for the 5G MCN market coming from a low small base. However, Huawei had the highest dollar revenue gain, with a lower Y/Y growth rate coming from a larger base.

About the Report

The Dell’Oro Group Mobile Core Network & Multi-Access Edge Computing Quarterly Report offers complete, in-depth coverage of the market with tables covering manufacturers’ revenue, shipments, and average selling prices for Evolved Packet Core, 5G Packet Core, Policy, Subscriber Data Management, and IMS Core including licenses by Non-NFV and NFV, and by geographic regions. To purchase this report, please contact us at [email protected].