Dell’Oro: RAN Market Stabilized in 2025 with 1% CAG forecast over next 5 years; Opinion on AI RAN, 5G Advanced, 6G RAN/Core risks
A recently published report from Dell’Oro Group reveals that the Radio Access Network (RAN) market ended the year on a stable note, with stronger than typical 3Q to 4Q seasonality. Fourth-quarter results were consistent with the broader stabilization trend that shaped the RAN market throughout the year, resulting in stable revenue trends for the full year.
“Taking into consideration that the RAN market lost around a fifth of its value between 2022 and 2024, this improved stability in 2025 represents a welcome shift in market conditions,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President for RAN market research at the Dell’Oro Group. “Helping to explain the improved sentiment are the more favorable regional mix, easier comparisons, and the weaker USD. Even so, we have not made any material changes to the short-term outlook and still expect the market to be mostly flat in 2026,” continued Pongratz.
Additional highlights from the 4Q 2025 RAN report:
- Revenue rankings did not change in 2025. The top 5 RAN suppliers by worldwide revenue are Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE, and Samsung.
- RAN vendor dynamics shifted in 2025—leading vendors strengthened their positions, while smaller suppliers adjusted their strategies. As a result, overall RAN market concentration increased during the year.
- Overall market concentration, as measured by the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index, reached a 10-year high in 2025.
- In 2025, Huawei and Nokia gained ground, Ericsson and Samsung were stable, and ZTE’s RAN revenue share fell.
- The fundamentals that shape the RAN market have not changed, and the long-term trajectory discussed in the most recent 5-year forecast still holds (1% CAGR, 2025-2030).
- The short-term outlook is mostly unchanged, with total RAN expected to remain stable in 2026.
RAN is not a growth market over time (0% CAGR 2020-2025 in nominal US $). However, it can go through periods of higher and lower capital intensity ratios as operators align investment needs with the availability of new spectrum/technologies and demand for capacity. The base case forecast is for stable RAN and capex trends, resulting in further improvements in capital intensity ratios before 6G investments commence towards the end of the forecast period. Worldwide RAN revenue is projected to grow at a 1% CAGR over the next five years, as rapidly declining LTE capex will offset continued 5G and initial 6G investments. RAN as a share of wireless capex is expected to average in the 20 to 25 percentage share range over the forecast period.
Dell’Oro Group’s RAN Quarterly Report offers a complete overview of the RAN industry, with tables covering manufacturers’ and market revenue for multiple RAN segments including 5G NR Sub-7 GHz, 5G NR mmWave, LTE, macro base stations and radios, small cells, Massive MIMO, Open RAN, and vRAN. The report also tracks the RAN market by region and includes a four-quarter outlook. To purchase this report, please contact us by email at [email protected].
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Editors Opinion:
This author believes that the only RAN growth driver over the next 5 years will be investments in 5G SA core networks, which finally is starting to be deployed more than 5G NSA networks as we noted in today’s companion IEEE Techblog post. Omdia forecasts that 5G SA core network software spending will grow at an 8.8% CAGR between 2025 and 2030, making it a primary driver of investment. Continued 5G investments by global telcos are largely being offset by sharply declining 4G-LTE investments, leading to a “stable” rather than a growing RAN market.
Neither AI RAN, 5G Advanced, or Open RAN will be significant RAN market growth drivers:
- 5G Advanced (5G-A): 5G Advanced is widely considered a key part of the roadmap toward 6G. While some operators are focusing on it, its initial impact on overall global RAN revenue is expected to be more incremental rather than a massive boom in the next 2-3 years. If 5G-Advanced is seen by operators as “incremental” and 6G is legally/technically bound to a 2030/2031 ITU-R standards and 3GPP spec finalization, there is very little “must-have” radio hardware for a network operator to buy before 2030 at the earliest.
- AI-RAN: While AI-RAN is viewed as a key tool for improving efficiency and reducing energy costs (operational expenditure), its immediate impact on capital investment (Capex) in RAN equipment is likely to be slower. However, some, like Samsung, argue that AI-RAN is already driving optimizations in 2026. AI-RAN is primarily an OpEx play. Network operators are buying software and specialized silicon to lower their energy bills and automate frequency management. While this is critical for their survival, it doesn’t create a new “coverage wave” of RAN spending. It’s simply a “treading water” investment.
- Open RAN: has not led to increased RAN sales or multi-vendor equipment in the same RAN. Rather, it is a procurement shift, not a market expander.
There may be pockets of RAN growth in 5G-Advanced for specific performance needs, 5G private networks, and AI-enabled efficiency tools. However, we believe that the global RAN market will continue to stagnate till 6G network are deployed in early 2031.
Stefan had forecast that “cumulative 6G RAN investments over the 2029-2034 period are projected to account for 55 to 60% of the total RAN capex over that time period.” However, 6G capex does not translate into 6G RAN revenue until 6G is actually deployed!
Any earlier 6G deployment will be BEFORE the 5G RAN (IMT 2030 RIT/SRITs) and IMT 2030 Frequency arrangements standards are approved by ITU-R in late 2030 or early 2031 as IMT 2030 recommendations. Note that 3GPP Release 21 marks the official start of its normative 6G work. While the specific milestones for Release 21 are to be decided by June 2026, it is widely expected to produce the first formal 6G RAN technical specifications by late 2028 or early 2029 and submit them to ITU-R WP 5D via ATIS. Therefore, any 6G RAN equipment shipped before the 2030 ITU seal of approval would be based on pre-standardized or early 3GPP specifications that may require later alignment and hardware/software updates.
–>No rational wireless network operator wants to deploy thousands of “6G-ready” sites in 2029 only to find that the ITU-R IMT 2030 RIT/SRITs and/or Frequency Arrangements finalized in late 2030 require a hardware filter change or a different sub-carrier spacing to meet global interference requirements.
Hopefully, 3GPP will have finalized its 6G core network specs during the same time period so that 6G RANs will be complemented with 6G core networks- unlike the initial 5G RAN rollouts which had 4G evolved packet cores (5G NSA).
Potential Repeat Problem of No 6G Core Network Standard:
It’s highly likely that 3GPP will once again (like with 5G) not submit their 6G core network specs to ITU-T which is responsible for non-radio aspects of wireless networks. That means that 3GPP effectively operates as a silo for the 6G Core Network (refusing ITU-T oversight),so there will likely be no unified global regulatory mandate for the “6G system” as a whole—only for the “radio” (ITU-R IMT 2030 recommendations). This might allow operators to delay 6G SA Core deployments indefinitely, which in turn kills the business case for buying new 5G-Advanced or AI-RAN hardware.
Google Gemini: If the 6G Core Network isn’t standardized in a way that allows operators to actually monetize these new radio architectures, it doesn’t matter if the RAN is “Open,” “AI-enabled,” or “Advanced.” It’s still just a cost center on a stagnant balance sheet. If the “brain” (6G Core) doesn’t support the “limbs” (6G RAN), the market may not buy the limbs and 6G RAN sales will disappoint, just as 5G RAN sales did. Many carriers are still struggling to recoup the billions spent on 5G deployment so are seriously concerned about the 6G ROI.
| Feature | 5G Challenge | 6G Challenge |
|---|---|---|
| Spectrum | Mid-band & mmWave (24-52 GHz) | Sub-THz & THz (>100 GHz) |
| Connectivity | Massive IoT (1M devices/km²) | Internet of Senses (10M devices/km²) |
| Architecture | Cloud-native | AI-native & “Cell-free” MIMO |
| Primary Goal | Enhanced Mobile Broadband | Convergence of Physical & Digital worlds |
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References:
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7422420902362988544/
6G Capex Ramp to Start Around 2030, According to Dell’Oro Group
Dell’Oro: Mobile Core Networks +15% in 2025; Ookla: Global Reality Check on 5G SA and 5G Advanced in 2026
Dell’Oro: RAN market stable, Mobile Core Network market +14% Y/Y with 72 5G SA core networks deployed
Omdia on resurgence of Huawei: #1 RAN vendor in 3 out of 5 regions; RAN market has bottomed
Dell’Oro Group: RAN Market Grows Outside of China in 2Q 2025
Dell’Oro: AI RAN to account for 1/3 of RAN market by 2029; AI RAN Alliance membership increases but few telcos have joined
Omdia: Huawei increases global RAN market share due to China hegemony
Network equipment vendors increase R&D; shift focus as 0% RAN market growth forecast for next 5 years!
vRAN market disappoints – just like OpenRAN and mobile 5G
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Your 6G analysis is right on the mark! While we are still in the early stages of defining the IMT 2030 standards (with commercial rollout not expected until around 2030-2031), the industry has identified several significant challenges. These aren’t just incremental upgrades from 5G; they involve fundamental shifts in physics and infrastructure. Here are the primary hurdles facing 6G deployment:
1. The Terahertz (THz) Gap
6G aims to use frequencies above 100 GHz (reaching into the Terahertz range) to achieve data rates of 1 Tbps.
The Problem: These waves have extremely short propagation distances and are easily blocked by walls, rain, or even human hands.
The Challenge: Deploying a network that requires an incredibly high density of “nano-cells” is logistically difficult and prohibitively expensive.
2. Massive Infrastructure Costs
Because 6G relies on higher frequencies with shorter range, the number of base stations required will be significantly higher than 5G.
Energy Consumption: Powering millions of small cells while trying to meet “Green IT” and sustainability goals is a major architectural contradiction.
Fiber Backhaul: Every one of those tiny 6G cells needs a high-speed fiber connection to handle the massive data throughput, requiring a total overhaul of urban fiber density.
3. Computational Complexity at the Edge
6G is expected to be the first “AI-native” generation, where the network optimizes itself in real-time.
Latency vs. Processing: To achieve sub-millisecond latency, the AI processing must happen at the “edge” (close to the user).
Hardware Limits: Current mobile hardware and edge servers may struggle to perform the complex matrix calculations required for 6G signal processing without draining batteries instantly.
4. New Materials & Antenna Design
Standard silicon-based chips struggle at THz frequencies due to heat and efficiency losses.
Meta-surfaces: 6G may require Reconfigurable Intelligent Surfaces (RIS)—essentially “smart mirrors” placed on buildings to reflect and steer beams around corners. Manufacturing and installing these across cities is a massive physical undertaking.
5. The “Killer App” Paradox
Perhaps the biggest non-technical challenge is the business case.
ROI Concerns: Many carriers are still struggling to recoup the billions spent on 5G deployment.
Market Need: While technologies like Holoportation (high-fidelity 3D holograms) and Digital Twins are cited as 6G use cases, it remains to be seen if consumer demand will justify the astronomical cost of building the network.