The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI finds that China is further ahead in more technologies than has been realized. It’s the leading country in 37 of the 44 technologies evaluated, often producing more than five times as much high-impact research as its closest competitor. This means that only seven of the 44 analysed technologies are currently led by a democratic country, and that country in all instances is the U.S.  Of the ten AI and ICT-related technologies examined, China dominates in seven, the study concluded.

The ASPI study is based on an analysis of the top 10% most-cited papers in each area of research published between 2018 and 2022 – a total of 2.2 million papers. It acknowledges that a widely cited piece of research does not automatically translate into successfully deployed technology. The study also does not reflect the current state of commercialization or of technology diffusion. Here’s a table showing China leading technologies:

Source: Australian Strategic Policy Institute

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China leads globally in photonic sensors (43% of world’s top 10% high-impact research, 3.41 times the US), quantum communications (31%, 1.89 times the US), advanced optical communications (38%, 2.95 times the US) and post-quantum cryptography (31%, 2.3 times the US). Taken together, these observations increase the risk of Chinese communications going dark83 to the efforts of western intelligence services. This reduces the capacity to plan for contingencies  in the event of hostilities85 and tensions.

China has reportedly built the physical infrastructure to claim the world’s largest quantum communication network,86 and has even established quantum communication with moving drones87 and satellites.88 As with many things, the risk is cumulative—the risk increases as China leads in both cryptography resistant to decryption by quantum computers and the ability to share encryption keys via quantum communication. One mitigating factor is the current US lead in quantum computing (34% of world’s top 10% high-impact research output, 2.26 times China).

Here are three key tech areas where China dominates in high-impact research papers:

• In advanced radiofrequency communications, including 5G and 6G, (there is no such thing as 6G radio) China ranks 1st with 29.65% vs 9.50% for the U.S. and 5.2% for the UK.
• In advanced optical communications, China ranks 1st with 37.69% vs. 12.76% for the U.S.
• In artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms and hardware accelerators, China ranks 1st with 36.62% vs. 13.26% for the U.S.

The ASPI report designates China’s lead in these technologies as “high-risk,” meaning it is a long way ahead of its closest competitor and that it is home to most of the world’s leading research bodies in that field.

Quantum communications is another area of strength for China. USTC is the top institution irrespective of the quality metrics, and a total of eight out of 20 top institutions are based in China (see Figure 9). Tsinghua University and Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands occupy the second and third places depending on the quality metrics. China’s lead in quantum communications is especially prominent in the proportion of publications in the top 10% of highly cited papers. China’s quantum research was spearheaded by the Xiangshan Science Forum for quantum information in Beijing in 1998, which resulted in experimental research in quantum information within several Chinese universities and research institutes, including USTC, Shanxi University and the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Physics.

USTC scientist Jian-Wei Pan to demonstrate the potential of quantum communications to Xi Jinping and other Politburo members, and he became known as the founder of Chinese quantum science. In China’s Thirteenth Five-Year National Science and Technology Innovation Plan announced in August 2016,163 the CCP strengthened its quantum strategy further by listing quantum communications and computing as major science and technology projects for advances by 2030. USTC demonstrated China’s dominance in quantum communication by building the first fibre-based ‘Beijing–Shanghai Quantum Secure Communication Backbone’ in 2013, connecting Beijing, Shanghai, Jinan Hefei and 32 reliable nodes over a total transmission distance of more than 2,000 kilometres.164 The strength of quantum communications is that it ensures secure communication due to quantum entanglement, which effectively ensures that any quantum information is modified when observed. This effectively makes it difficult to amplify quantum signals in the conventional way used for current optical communications. Pan’s research team made another significant breakthrough in 2017 by using the first quantum satellite (Micius, launched in 2016), and the free space reduced attenuation to transmit image and sound information using quantum keys over 7,600 kilometres between Austria and China.

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ASPI warns that China’s advanced research “at the intersection of” photonic sensors, quantum communications, optical communications and post-quantum cryptography could undermine the U.S. led “Five Eyes” global intelligence network.

“Taken together, these observations increase the risk of Chinese communications going dark to the efforts of western intelligence services,” the report said.  ASPI said its research will be updated with the aim of assessing the future tech capabilities of nations and to highlight long-term strategic trends.

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References:

https://www.aspi.org.au/report/critical-technology-tracker

https://techtracker.aspi.org.au/

https://www.lightreading.com/6g/china-dominates-research-in-6g-and-optical-report/d/d-id/783630?

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