According to a recently published report from Dell’Oro Group, worldwide telecom capex increased about 5% year-over-year (YoY) in the first half of 2026. The stronger-than-expected start to the year follows several years of declining investment and marks an improvement relative to expectations at the beginning of 2026.

Telecom equipment trends remain closely aligned with capex. Aggregate manufacturer revenues across the six telecom equipment programs tracked by Dell’Oro Group—Broadband Access, Microwave Transport, Optical Transport, Mobile Core Network (MCN), Radio Access Network (RAN), and High End Router & Aggregation—also increased approximately 5% YoY in 1H2026.

“The first half was stronger than we expected, but the improving near-term trajectory does not materially change the longer-term capex story,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “Operators are in a stronger capacity position following the 5G and fiber investment cycles, and the focus is gradually shifting from coverage toward capacity, modernization, automation, and efficiency. At the same time, improving operator revenues are helping to reduce capital intensity ratios even as network investments remain flat.”

Additional highlights from the September 2026 Telecom Capex report:

• Despite the stronger start to 2026, Dell’Oro Group made only negligible revisions to its longer-term forecast. Worldwide telecom capex is projected to grow at a 0 to 1% CAG between 2025 and 2030, reflecting a more mature investment environment following the major 5G and fiber coverage cycles.
• Capital intensity, which peaked at 18% in 2022, is projected to decline to around 14 percent in 2028, before increasing modestly as early 6G investment emerges.
• Telecom equipment revenues are projected to grow at a 2 to 3% CAGR between 2025 and 2030, outpacing CSP capex, partly reflecting incremental demand from cloud providers.

About the Report

The Dell’Oro Group Telecom Capex Report provides in-depth coverage of more than 50 telecom operators, highlighting carrier revenue, capital expenditure, and capital intensity trends.  The report provides actual and 5-year forecast details by carrier, by region, by country (United States, Canada, China, India, Japan, and South Korea), and by technology (wireless/wireline).  To purchase this report, please contact us by email at [email protected]

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Other Voices:

Primary financial reports from Deutsche Telekom, Orange and Nokia add useful independent context: investment trends differ substantially by network operator and geography, capital intensity can fall even while spending rises, and equipment suppliers increasingly benefit from cloud demand—not just carrier network investment.

Deutsche Telekom’s cash capex excluding spectrum fell 4.9% to €7.8 billion in the first half of 2026, primarily reflecting the timing of German fiber investment, while group revenue increased 2.4%. Orange’s economic capex rose 2.7% on a comparable basis to €3.2 billion, driven by higher investment in Africa and the Middle East; spending excluding that region declined 2.4%. Orange’s revenue grew faster than investment, allowing its comparable capex-to-revenue ratio to edge down to 15.2%.report.telekom+2

Supplier results also highlight a source of equipment demand beyond traditional carrier budgets. Nokia reported first-half sales growth of 6%, while second-quarter Optical Networks and IP Networks sales increased 20% and 16%, respectively, at constant currency. Sales to AI and cloud customers more than doubled, and orders from those customers reached €2.8 billion in the quarter. These results support a distinction between a selective recovery in operator investment and stronger demand for optical and IP infrastructure serving AI and cloud networks.

References:

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7513319856398610432/

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