Month: August 2026
Analysis & Opinion: SpaceX to build, lease or buy a hybrid/terrestrial satellite network?
Should SpaceX’s Starlink build, lease/rent or buy a hybrid terrestrial/satellite mobile network or perhaps do it through a mix of these alternatives. Several industry watchers see an MVNO deal as the most likely path (we agree- see Analysis & Opinion below). That way SpaceX/Starlink can deliver reliable service indoors and out because it will have access to necessary low band and mid band spectrum, plus access to its own direct-to-device (D2D) service to cover areas out of reach of the terrestrial cellular network. Some analysts suggest that SpaceX might try to exchange some of its spectrum for an MVNO agreement, or perhaps come up with some other means to achieve that goal.
“Starlink is playing the long game. It will continue to negotiate, cajole, and, if necessary, coerce, in an effort to secure an MVNO agreement with one of the Big Three,” MoffettNathanson analyst Craig Moffett said in a recent report (subscribers only) that sized up SpaceX’s options. “It is clear, however, that the Big Three (AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile) fully understand the clear and present danger that would be posed by Starlink’s market entry as another Cable-like hybrid MNO/MVNO.”
Image Credit: Stephen Searle/Alamy Stock Photos
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A recent a Semafor report suggests the build and buy options are both being consdiered at SpaceX, kicking it off with a lead proclaiming that “Elon Musk is coming for your cell phone networks.” The report said SpaceX is seeking spectrum that can deliver service in “cities and dense areas,” and is exploring some options to get there that include acquiring companies that already own spectrum or obtaining spectrum at auction.
“In the most recent sign that Musk’s Starlink plans to compete directly with AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile. Musk’s SpaceX has taken other steps into the conventional telecommunications business. President Gwynne Shotwell demonstrated a prototype mobile handset to some investors earlier this year, the Wall Street Journal reported. The Financial Times also reported that Shotwell had expressed interest in building their own terrestrial networks.”
“SpaceX wants to grow its Starlink mobile business, which analysts expect to hit $15 billion in revenue this year and which SpaceX, in its IPO pitch to investors, pegged at a $740 billion market. SpaceX is working on new technologies to improve Starlink’s coverage in tree-covered areas and inside buildings, and Musk has also said he’s considered building a hybrid satellite-terrestrial network to bolster the service.”
Elon Musk has kept the door open for SpaceX to attempt a takeover of an MNO in the future. Whether any would be willing to sell is a completely different discussion.
- Roger Entner, analyst and founder at Recon Analytics, suggested that SpaceX’s fight over the upper C-band buildout rules indicates that it’s not shopping to acquire a wireless carrier. He said it shows that SpaceX “is a company that means to win spectrum at auction and build a satellite and terrestrial hybrid network on it from the ground up, the same way it built its own dish and its own router rather than buying either off a shelf.”
- “The key thing to look at is where SpaceX can exert pressure on the MNOs at minimal cost to itself. I expect we’ll see more rumors of a Starlink phone & cable partnership. Perhaps even a CBRS purchase from EchoStar. But strict buildout timetable now makes upper C-band unappealing,” Tim Farrar, principal at TMF Associates, explained on X.
The Semafor report notes that SpaceX’s plans are fluid, and the company could ultimately choose not to follow through. Building a network is capital intensive, requiring continuous, steady investment in both towers and spectrum —- drawing capital away from businesses that investors more richly reward, chiefly AI.
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Analysis and Opinion (aided by Perplexity.ai):
SpaceX is most likely to buy spectrum and selectively acquire/lease assets, rather then build a lean, satellite‑centric terrestrial layer — not buy a legacy carrier, and not build a Dish‑scale greenfield MNO.
This is a hybrid “buy‑then‑build” playbook: buy the airwaves (and maybe some small operators or tower portfolios) to secure optionality, then build only the terrestrial pieces that are economically justified, letting Starlink Direct‑to‑Device do the heavy lifting for coverage.
Why a pure “build” MNO is unlikely:
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Capital allocation: SpaceX’s 2025 capex was already dominated by AI (~$18B in AI spend, with total near‑term IG funding needs around $300B before FCF turns positive). A full terrestrial MNO build would compete directly with that priority.
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Strategic fit: SpaceX’s historical pattern is to design and build its own infrastructure, but only where it unlocks a new market or margin (rockets, satellites, user terminals). A retail MNO with dense tower grids and low ARPU is a different beast.
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Regulatory reality: FCC rules for the EchoStar spectrum impose strict buildout and performance obligations, but they also allow blending space and ground infrastructure—exactly what a satellite‑first hybrid needs.
Why a pure “buy a carrier” is also unlikely:
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No willing seller at the right price: Major carriers have rejected MVNO/wholesale overtures, and buying AT&T/T‑Mobile/Verizon is not realistic.
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Asset mismatch: Legacy carriers come with large, costly tower grids and cost bases that a satellite‑terrestrial hybrid is designed to minimize.
The middle path: buy spectrum, build sparingly:
Evidence points to this as SpaceX’s actual strategy:
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Spectrum first: The $17B EchoStar deal (AWS‑4, H‑Block, unpaired AWS‑3) gives SpaceX ~65 MHz of nationwide, exclusive, contiguous midband spectrum explicitly for direct‑to‑cell and hybrid services.
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Auction strategy: SpaceX is expected to bid aggressively in the upcoming upper C‑band auction (3.98–4.14 GHz, 160 MHz) to secure urban capacity for a full‑service mobile offering.
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Terrestrial as a complement: In dense areas, smartphones would connect to terrestrial base stations SpaceX plans to deploy; outside those zones, devices would switch to Starlink Direct‑to‑Cell. This keeps tower counts and capex manageable.
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Selective M&A: Rather than buying a Big Three carrier, SpaceX is more likely to acquire spectrum‑rich smaller operators or lease/buy tower capacity where it accelerates coverage without a full build.
Bottom line:
SpaceX will almost certainly enter the U.S. mobile market as a hybrid operator, but the most capital‑efficient and strategically consistent route is:
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Buy: spectrum (EchoStar + auctions) and possibly small, targeted assets.
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Build: a lean terrestrial layer only where density and economics justify it, relying on satellites for the rest.
This balances a valid concern about AI’s capital pull with SpaceX’s clear intent to control the customer relationship and avoid being just a wholesale satellite internet operator.
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References:
https://www.semafor.com/article/07/29/2026/spacex-looks-to-compete-with-the-carriers
FT: SpaceX considering Starlink Direct-to-Consumer mobile service & terrestrial cellular network infrastructure in the U.S.
Elon Musk: Starlink could become a global mobile carrier; 2 year timeframe for new smartphones
US Mobile’s new bundle combines its multi-network mobile service with Starlink residential internet
Direct-to-Device (D2D) satellite network comparison: Starlink V2 (Starlink Mobile) vs “Satellite Connect Europe”
U.S. BEAD overhaul to benefit Starlink/SpaceX at the expense of fiber broadband providers
