Cisco’s Annual Internet Report (2018–2023) forecasts huge growth for IoT and M2M; tepid growth for Mobile

According to Cisco’s newly renamed Annual Internet Report [1.], networked devices around the globe will total 29.3 billion in 2023, outnumbering humans by more than three to one.  The number of overall connected devices: 29.3 billion networked devices by 2023, compared to 18.4 billion in 2018.

The report also anticipates that the internet of things (IoT) will spread to 50% of all networked devices through machine-to-machine (M2M) technology and that the internet will reach 5.3 billion people, compared to 3.9 billion in 2018.

“There is a lot of growth that still can happen from a user perspective,” said Shruti Jain, senior analyst with Cisco.  “Machine-to-machine is going to grow phenomenally,” she added.

Note 1.  Cisco’s Annual Internet Report was formerly titled Visual Networking Index or VNI)

Global Internet user growth

Figure 1.  Global Internet user growth

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Global device and connection growth

Figure 2.  Global device and connection growth
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Cisco said that about 70% of the global population will have mobile-network-based connectivity by 2023, with the total number of mobile subscribers growing from 66% of the population in 2018 to 71% of the population (5.7 billion) by 2023. Of those, about 10% will be 5G connections by the end of the forecast period, with the number of global mobile devices rising from 8.8 billion in 2018 to 13.1 billion, with 1.4 billion of those being 5G-capable.

Global mobile subscriber growth

Figure 6.   Global Mobile subscriber growth

5G speeds are anticipated to be 13-times faster than the average mobile connection speed: 575 Mbps by 2023.   Ms. Jain noted that as mobile network speeds approach those of wireline networks, it opens up new possibilities for mobile applications.

“Soon, those speeds are going to get very close to WiFi and [wired] broadband speeds, and be able to support a lot of new applications and experiences,” she said.

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Other key findings from the 2020 Cisco AIR:

-The number of devices per person will continue to rise, from 2.4 networked devices per-capita in 2018 to 3.6 devices by 2023.

-The number of public WiFi hot spots will increase fourfold by 2023, to nearly 628 million.

-Almost 300 million mobile applications will be downloaded by 2023, with the most popular ones being social media, gaming and business applications.

-Power users’ impact is dwindling. Cisco found that globally, the top 1% of mobile data users accounted for 5% of mobile data in 2019. That has dropped significantly since 2010, when the top 1% of mobile users accounted for 52% of mobile data usage.

Increasing video definition: By 2023, 66 percent of connected flat-panel TV sets will be 4K

Figure 3. Increasing video usage: By 2023, 66 percent of connected flat-panel TV sets will be 4K

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Summary: Multi-domain innovation and integration redefines the Internet

Throughout the forecast period (2018 – 2023), network operators and IT teams will be focused on interconnecting all the different domains in their diverse infrastructures – access, campus/branch, IoT/OT, wide-area, data center, co-los, cloud providers, service providers, and security. By integrating these formerly distinct and siloed domains, IT can reduce complexity, increase agility, and improve security. The future of the Internet will establish new connectivity requirements and service assurance levels for users, personal devices and IoT nodes, all applications (consumer and business), via any network access type (fixed broadband, Wi-Fi, and cellular) with dynamic security. Through our research and analysis, we anticipate innovation and growth in the following strategic areas.

Applications: Across virtually every business sector, there is an increased demand for new or enhanced applications that improve customer experiences. The Internet of Things (IoT), Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML) and business analytics are changing how developers build smart applications to simplify customer transactions and deliver new business insights. Businesses and service organizations need to understand evolving demands and deliver exceptional customer experiences by leveraging technology.

Infrastructure transformation: The rapid growth of data and devices is outpacing many IT teams’ capabilities and manual approaches won’t allow them to keep up. Increased IT automation, centrally and remotely managed, is essential for businesses to keep pace in the digital world. Service providers and enterprises are exploring software-defined everything, as well as intent-driven and context-powered infrastructures that are designed to support future application needs and flexibility.

Security: Cybersecurity is a top priority for all who rely on the Internet for business and personal online activities. Protect every surface, detect fast and remediate confidently. Protecting digital assets and content encompasses an ever-expanding digital landscape. Organizations need the actionable insights and scalable solutions to secure employees’ devices, IoT connections, infrastructure and proprietary data.

Empowering employees and teams: To achieve business agility and prepare employees for the future, empowering global work forces with the right tools is a must. Automation, collaboration and mobility are essential for managing IT complexity and new customer expectations and demands. Business teams, partners and groups in all types of organizations need to collaborate seamlessly across all application mediums that are relevant to various roles and responsibilities. Employees and teams need accurate and actionable data to solve problems and create new growth strategies.

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For more information:

Several interactive tools are available to help you create custom highlights and forecast charts by region, by country, by application, and by end-user segment (refer to the Cisco Annual Internet Report Highlights tool). Inquiries can be directed to ask-ciscoair@cisco.com.

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References:

https://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/executive-perspectives/annual-internet-report/white-paper-c11-741490.html

 

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