Gartner Group Innovation & Insight: Cutting Through the 5G Hype

Executive Summary:

Most 5G deployments will initially focus on islands of deployment, without continuous national coverage through 2022. Enterprise architecture and technology innovation leaders must adapt digital business initiatives to the available network services.

Key Findings:

  • Despite service provider hype, most 5G rollouts will initially focus on islands of deployment. Broad availability of full-function public 5G from CSPs is unlikely before 2023, putting some digital business plans at risk — unless private networks are rolled out.
  • Early public 5G deployments will be spotty in coverage, but will satisfy some enterprise use cases such as high-speed fixed wireless access.
  • Enterprises may choose to deploy private 5G networks to address specific needs such as upgrading factory, stadium or warehouse networks. This may leverage Wi-Fi for access and 5G for the backbone.
  • Application use-case requirements (such as latency) must be clearly defined, so alternatives to 5G can be considered where applicable. In many cases, Proto-5G (an enhanced 4G) will be good enough to satisfy application use cases.

Recommendations:

Enterprise architecture and technology innovation leaders responsible for accelerating enterprise infrastructure innovation and agility should:
  • Incorporate realistic networking assumptions for business plans by working with business leaders and network service providers to identify the availability of required advanced wireless services such as Proto-5G and 5G.
  • Address current use-case requirements by identifying where 5G alternatives such as Proto-5 G can be leveraged when and where 5G is unavailable or too expensive.

Strategic Planning Assumption:

Less than 45% of CSPs (Communications Service Providers) globally will have launched a commercial 5G network by 2025.

Analysis:

To optimize their planning and deployment decisions, enterprise architecture and technology innovation leaders need to understand when advanced cellular network technologies will be available, and how they can be beneficial to their organizations (see Figure 1). Deployments of 5G will not be consistently available worldwide, but enhanced 4G (referred to collectively as “Proto-5G” in this research) may suffice for some use cases, and 4G radio may be combined with edge computing and core network slicing.
Adding to the confusion about 5G availability is the fact that many CSPs are claiming that everything they deploy is 5G. However, what they deploy may be little more than rebranded or advanced LTE, or a subset of 5G that is deployed in a very limited footprint.
Ubiquitous availability of 5G will be hampered by the following:
  • 5G deployments will take more than twice as long as 4G/LTE because higher-frequency radio spectrum is required. This will force deployment of large numbers of new cellular radios.
  • Spectrum allocation is progressing slowly.
  • 4G/LTE is successful and profitable.
  • There are no killer applications to pay for the required investment.
Network-based CSPs in North America, Greater China and Japan will launch projects to complete 90% of nationwide 5G population coverage by 2023. CSPs in Western Europe will achieve similar coverage by 2026, while other regions will not achieve the same coverage until after 2026.
Technological variation in frequency bands worldwide means that the deployment timelines and benefits will vary by geography (see Figure 1).

Figure 1. Estimated Timing of 5G Network Launches

Source: Gartner (December 2018)

Estimated Timing of 5G Network Launches

Definition:

5G is the next-generation cellular standard after 4G. It has been defined across several global standards bodies, including the International Telecommunication Union, 3GPP and ETSI.
The official ITU specification, International Mobile Telecommunications-2020, targets maximum downlink and uplink throughputs of 20 Gbps and 10 Gbps, respectively; latency below 5 ms endpoint to RAN; and massive scalability, although initial deployments may be less ambitious. New system architecture includes core network slicing and edge computing.

Description:

For the first time in cellular technology development, 5G represents a shift in focus to go beyond consumer handsets to address the networking needs of a much broader group of wireless devices with very divergent requirements (see Figure 2).

Figure 2. Three Technology Pillars of 5G

Three Technology Pillars of 5G

AR/VR = augmented reality/virtual reality; eMMB = enhanced mobile broadband; IoT; Internet of Things; mMTC = massive machine-type communications; URLLC = ultrareliable and low-latency communication

Source: Gartner (December 2018)

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Blending the following three capabilities will allow 5G to address multiple use cases, although the implementations for each use case may be very different.
  • eMBB: High-throughput data transfer, with maximum speeds of 20 Gbps for downlink (although initial deployments will fall between 4 Gbps and 8 Gbps) and 10 Gbps for uplink.
  • mMTC: Targets support of up to 1 million low-power nodes per square kilometer.
  • URLLC: End-to-end cellular network latency of 5 ms or less.
From an enterprise perspective, 5G may serve as an alternative to landline connections for branch-office networks, as a replacement for some in-building networks or as a way to reach dispersed fixed (sensors) and mobile (vehicles) endpoints. Mobile voice and text messaging are not target use cases for 5G.

The Evolution of 4G Versus the Promise of 5G:

While much has been made of the advanced capabilities that will be provided by 5G networks, the reality is that Proto-5G, which is still 4G, is good and getting better. As Table 1 shows, Proto-5G is a kind of 4G-extended technology mainly for data communication and IoT connectivity support. In some, or even many, cases, Proto-5G capabilities may be good enough to support your emerging applications. As CSPs deploy 5G, migration to this new service may require equipment refresh.

Table 1: Proto-5G (Enhanced 4G) Compared to Existing 4G and 5G Wireless Access in the Future

Feature
4G
Proto-5G
5G Wireless Access
Requirement and Target
Up to several hundred Mbps downlink throughput
About several tens of ms latency
More than 500 Mbps downlink throughput
About 10 ms latency IoT connectivity support
More than 10 Gbps downlink throughput
About 1 ms latency URLLC support
Frequency
Licensed (less than 6GHz)
Licensed and unlicensed (less than 6GHz)
Millimeter waves, in addition to Proto-5G’s frequency bands
Device IoT Support
LTE user equipment Cat. 1
LTE user equipment Cat. 0, M1 and NB-IoT
To be discussed in the technology standards
LTE = Long Term Evolution; URLLC = ultrareliable and low-latency communication
Source: Gartner (December 2018)
Deployments of 5G will occur over several years, and with multiple versions with very different capabilities because equipment vendors (Ericsson, Fujitsu, Huawei, NEC, Nokia, Samsung and ZTE) have their own evolutionary roadmap from 4G: LTE, to Proto-5G, to 5G. This will lead to inconsistent service across markets and carriers.

Benefits and Uses:

The benefits of 5G will evolve as the technology matures. In the short term, 5G will deliver higher bandwidth and lower latency connections, in many cases, in the form of fixed wireless access networks and early IoT networks.
In a shift from traditional cellular deployments, organizations will benefit from private network deployments that replace or augment campus Wi-Fi networks and wired in-building networks for applications such as factory automation and surveillance.
This deployment will be driven by 5G’s increased bandwidth, lower latency and support for IoT devices, as well as by the flexibility afforded by operating on unlicensed frequencies.
A recent Gartner survey indicates that, enterprise leaders have a broad awareness of 5G and have identified primary use cases (see Figure 3).
The figure shows that 5G-capable networks are expected to be most broadly used for IoT communications and video, including 4K and 8K video streaming to mobile devices, or ultrahigh definition wireless, closed-circuit TV applications.

Figure 3. Expected Use for 5G-Capable Networks

AR = augmented reality; VR = virtual reality

Source: Gartner (December 2018)

Expected Use for 5G-Capable Networks
The 5G support of a massive number of endpoints will enable IoT applications such as dense sensor networks for agriculture optimization. Improved operational efficiency is cited as the reason to deploy 5G for noncritical sensors, fixed wireless access, IoT communications and video. The 5G-capable networks are expected to be most broadly used for IoT communications and video. Controls/automation, fixed wireless access, high-performance edge analytics, and location tracking are a second tier of uses for 5G-capable networks.
Figure 4 shows use cases that benefit from improved operational efficiency enabled by 5G.

Figure 4. Use Cases for Deploying 5G-Capable Networks for Operational Efficiency

Source: Gartner (December 2018)

Use Cases for Deploying 5G-Capable Networks for Operational Efficiency
In many cases, 5G is linked to organizations’ edge computing deployments, which are driven by digital business initiatives. Bandwidth- and latency-sensitive applications benefit from placing compute as close as possible to the wireless client device, especially when bandwidth is constrained from the edge back into the core. As a result, many enterprises may find it advantageous to leverage emerging CSP edge computing services (see Figure 5).

Figure 5. Migration to 5G Will Enable Emerging Edge Computing Applications

P2P = peer-to-peer; VNFs = virtualized network functions

Source: Gartner (December 2018)

Migration to 5G Will Enable Emerging Edge Computing Applications
Over the longer term, 5G deployments will deliver multigigabit bandwidth and extremely low latency. When combined with dense coverage, which will require a dramatic increase in the number of antenna deployed, 5G promises enablement of new services, including mobility-enhanced AR/VR and autonomous vehicles. AR, VR, immersive video or holograms, and smart city are key use cases being deployed primarily to drive new service provider revenue.
Figure 6. 5G Use Cases That CSPs Expect to Drive New Revenue

Source: Gartner (December 2018)

5G Use Cases That CSPs Expect to Drive New Revenue

Adoption Rate:

From 2018 through 2022, organizations will mainly utilize 5G to support IoT communications, high-definition video and fixed wireless access. Use of higher frequencies and massive capacity will require very dense deployments with higher frequency reuse.
As a result, Gartner expects most 5G deployments to initially focus on islands of deployment, without continuous national coverage, typically reaching less than full parity with existing 4G geographical coverage by 2022 in developed nations.
In addition, slower adoption of 5G by CSPs (compared to 4G) means less than 45% of CSPs globally will have launched a commercial 5G network by 2025 (see Table 2).

Table 2: Representative Sample of 5G Deployments and Expected Use Cases to Be Supported

Country
CSP
Launch Target
Use Cases and Demos
U.S.
Verizon
October 2018 and broader rollout in 2019
  • Fixed wireless access
  • 4K VR in 5G trial at Indianapolis 500
  • Verizon and KT test of the world’s first 5G live hologram call
AT&T
AT&T plans to be the first U.S. company to introduce mobile 5G service in 12 cities in 2018.
  • Fixed wireless access
T-Mobile
Build out 5G in 30 cities in 2018 and 2020 l for full nationwide coverage
  • LTE enhancement
Sprint
5G commercial services and devices by 1H19
  • LTE enhancement
South Korea
SK Telecom
Commercial launch March 2019
  • 5G connected car trial with Ericsson and BMW
KT
Official 5G provider of the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics
Commercial launch March 2019
  • Olympic network showcases 5G eMBB
  • Immersive 5G broadcasting
  • 5G safety (drones and facial recognition)
LG U+
Commercial launch March 2019
  • N/A
Japan
NTT DOCOMO
NTT DOCOMO will start 5G preservice in September 2019 and launch commercial service in spring 2020.
  • 8K live broadcast with NHK at the 5G trial site in Tokyo Skytree Town
KDDI
Commercial launch in 2019 and massive deployment from 2020
  • VR, 8K
SoftBank
Commercial launch in 2019
  • Immersive video, remote control of robots
China
China Mobile
Commercial 5G services in 2020
  • N/A
China Telecom
Commercial 5G services in 2020
  • N/A
China Unicom
Commercial 5G services in 2020
  • N/A
Europe
EE in the U.K.
In late 2019
  • N/A
Deutsche Telekom in Germany
Strong preparation course for 5G rollout in 2020
  • N/A
Telia in Finland
Target 2019 for commercial rollout of 3.5GHz
  • Initial demo in Helsinki in 2018
Vodafone in the U.K.
Vodafone is gearing up for a full commercial launch of 5G services in mid-2019 and expects to have about 1,000 5G mobile sites in service by 2020.
  • N/A
Telefónica in Spain
2020
  • Working with SEAT and FICOSA on connected car applications
  • Working on tourism use cases with Fitur
TIM in Italy
First 5G use cases made available in June 2018, and full rollout in Bari and Matera to be completed during 2019.
  • 3D virtual reconstructions of archaeological sites and museums in Matera, Italy. In Bari, Italy, the technology would allow for “better management of logistics and transport.”
Swisscom in Switzerland
Swisscom plans to introduce 5G at select sites in 2018. Extensive coverage can be expected in 2020.
  • N/A
Middle East
Etisalat in UAE
Per a 14 May 2018 announcement, fixed devices and services will be available from September 2018 with the service gradually extended across the UAE.
  • 5G has applications for autonomous driving, networking vehicles, industrial automation and IoT.
Ooredoo in Qatar
Per a 14 May 2018 announcement, the first Ooredoo 5G site was launched, just days after Ooredoo’s new 5G Commercial Core Network was activated.
  • The 5G Supernet will support new applications, including driverless cars and smart roads, virtual and augmented reality, and a national fleet of service drones.
STC in Saudi Arabia
Per a 16 May 2018 announcement, the company will continue building the network gradually in Saudi Arabian cities until the 5G-capable devices are available during 2019.
  • 5G will enable uses such as IoT, artificial intelligence and robots.
eMBB = enhanced mobile broadband; IoT; Internet of Things; N/A = not available; UAE = United Arab Emirates; VR = virtual reality
Source: Gartner (December 2018)

Risks:

Business plans that depend upon 5G availability face multiple risk factors related to 5G availability and inconsistency of services, including:
  • Service provider hype will convince business leaders that 5G is broadly available well ahead of actual deployments.
  • Differences in Proto-5G technologies will lead to inconsistent solutions across providers and regions.
  • CSP capital expense budgets are constrained, which will slow deployments in all but the highest-demand locations and for the applications that generate immediate service provider revenue.
  • Full-featured 5G requires a 4x increase in antenna density and an upgrade of the entire antenna to radio access node network, which will be challenging in cities due to existing buildings and lack of rights of way.

Acronym Key and Glossary Terms:

AR
augmented reality
CSP
communications service provider
ITU
International Telecommunication Union
LTE
Long Term Evolution
ms
millisecond
RAN
radio access network
URLLC
ultrareliable and low-latency communication
VR
virtual reality

SCWS Americas: Verizon and AT&T 5G Roadmaps Differ on FWA vs mobile “5G”

Verizon has no plans for linear or on-demand (or any other form) of pay TV for its “5G” FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) based residential/Verizon Home broadband service, according to  Bill Stone, the company”s VP of technology development and planning.  Stone stated that in a question from this author (during the Q&A session after his second presentation) at the excellent SCWS Americas conference in Santa Clara, CA on December 5, 2018.  Instead, Verizon has a partnership with YouTube TV (first three months free) to provide OTT video to its FWA customers.   Verizon Home customers get a free Apple TV 4K or Google Chromecast Ultra (Internet TV adapters with HDMI connection to the customer’s TV) when they sign up for 5G Home service.

Stone also said that Verizon’s FiOS will continue to offer higher speeds than its 5G Home service, which will transition from its proprietary “5G TF” spec to 3GPP release 15 5G NR NSA (non stand alone) in the near future.   He told me privately that any wireless base station vendor that supports 5G NR would be able to interoperate on the carrier’s 5G FWA network (we don’t think so for many reasons).  Verizon’s 5G Home service is currently available in Houston, Indianapolis, Los Angeles and Sacramento.

Stone noted with pride that the mega carrier continues to bolster its 4G LTE network with new technologies.  “LTE has a lot of runway left,” Bill said to the audience.

Verizon currently says that customers of its 5G Home service will receive download speeds of at least 300 Mbps.  A video was shown of satisfied customers who all got download speeds of 800 Mbps or higher.  The mega carrier said that speeds can range up to 1 Gbps depending on customers’ location in relation to the towers for the service.

Verizon currently charges new customers $70 per month for 5G Home service, but only $50 per month for existing customers (with 1st three months free) who also subscribe to the carrier’s $30/month mobile data plan.  Voice is offered along with high speed Internet access, but no pay TV is available as with FiOS.

“The peak data rates here in millimeter-wave will definitely increase,” Stone told the audience.  Verizon currently runs its 5G Home service in its 28 GHz licensed spectrum in 400 MHz channels. But he said the carrier has the ability to increase that spectrum allotment to 600 MHz and 800 MHz channels (Verizon owns huge amounts of millimeter-wave spectrum via its purchases of XO and Straight Path). Stone explained that expanding the service’s spectrum channels would both increase user speeds and increase Verizon’s network capacity.  Verizon will move from 400 MHz to 800 MHz, and that will result in the speeds and capacity available  would double as a result.

Currently, the antennas and receivers for Verizon’s Home broadband service are installed by “white glove” professional technicians.   In the future, the carrier is planning to offer a self-installation option for its 5G Home service.  “Over time the goal is to introduce the ability to drop ship equipment that the customer can install on their own,”

Stone said, without providing a timeline for such a move. tone touched on several other data points for its FWA home broadband service:

  • 50% of Verizon’s 5G Home customers do not subscribe to the operator’s mobile service.
  • The service can transmit 1 Gbps downstream up to 3,000 feet.
  • The millimeter-wave service works in conditions including rain, snow and non-line-of-sight scenarios. Indeed, Stone said some transmissions work better in non-line-of-sight scenarios than when customers are within sight of the tower, due to the fact that millimeter-wave transmissions can reflect off various objects in order to reach their intended destination.
  • Verizon’s 5G Home customers are switching to the carrier from a variety of other service providers, though no details were provided.
  • Verizon ultimately expects to expand 5G Home to 30 million households at some unspecified time in the future, though Dunne said the carrier may revisit that figure as the company’s rollout progresses.
  • Verizon won’t build any more locations with its 5GTF equipment, and will instead wait for 3GPP release 15 5G NR equipment to become available before expanding to additional neighborhoods and cities.  However, the implementation of 5G NR by vendors will initially be non stand alone (NSA), which means its dependent on a LTE core network and LTE signaling.  That may differ amongst wireless base station vendors as will the frequencies used for different 5G NR carrier networks.
  • Verizon is making significant progress toward implementing vRAN technology on its 5G network, working with its vendors—including Ericsson, Samsung and Nokia—to virtualize the lower layers of its network in addition to the upper layers. The process of virtualizing the baseband functions in the RAN is part of a broader trend in the wireless and wider telecom industry in which operators are increasingly looking to move away from expensive, dedicated hardware from traditional suppliers and toward general-purpose compute servers running (mostly) open source software.
  • Verizon remains interested in providing edge computing services, services he said the operator could sell to companies looking to provide offerings ranging from drones to autonomous vehicles.  Verizon’s efforts in edge computing stem from the carrier’s moves to densify its network and to virtualize parts of its network functions. Those efforts, Stone said, would create a foundation for Verizon to eventually run edge computing sevices for third parties.

5G Home is one of many services Verizon plans to offer via 5G network technology with mobile 5G (again, based on 3GPP release 15 “5G NR”o NSA) being the next “5G” offering.  When mobile “5G” is deployed in the 11st half of 2019, the Motorola moto z3 smartphone, paired with the 5G moto mod and a Samsung 5G smartphone will be available.  So will an Inseego 5G hotspot that can access Verizon’s mobile network.

Addendum:  5G is one network, multiple use cases, Verizon CEO says

Last week at the UBS Global Media and Communications Conference, Verizon CEO Hans Vestberg touted the carrier’s 5G home residential broadband service as complementing its wired Fios offering while extending the ability to provide a wireless alternative to home connectivity. While the fixed wireless access service is only available in four markets, the carrier said half of the customers are new to the company.

In a discussion with John Hodulik of UBS Investment Bank and HSBC analyst Sunil Rajgopal, Vestberg said 5G Home comes with a guaranteed 300 Mbps but its millimeter wave spectrum can support up to 800 Mbps or 900 Mbps.

“It’s a totally different way to doing broadband, meaning, instead of having a cord into the house, you have a wireless wave into the house, but the experience is the same in the house. And I think that’s a big opportunity for us. We have one footprint of Home, and that’s the Northeast where we have our Fios footprint. For the rest of the country, we don’t have it. So of course, we see that as an opportunity.”

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

In a SCWS Americas keynote speech, title “Building our 5G network,”  Al Burke, AT&T Assistant Vice President – RAN Hardware and Software Development, described the progress the carrier has made in upgrading its network for 5G.  The key points he made were:

  • 5G will facilitate and support new applications such as VR/AR, remote surgery (Bill said he doesn’t want to be one of the first patients), connected cars, etc.
  • Small cells will be an integral part of 5G networks and “bring them to fruition”
  • By the ned of 2017, 55% of AT&Ts network functions were virtualized (I take that to mean they were implemented as software running on commodity compute servers)
  • There have been huge shifts in AT&Ts network in the last few years:

1.  From hardware to software implementations (e.g SDN, NFV);

2.  From centralized to decentralized control (e.g. EDGE computing)

3.  From observation (of network events, alerts, alarms) to insight via AI/ML (e.g.AT&T’s INDIGO)

  • Open RAN (ORAN) is the way to move forward.  Via disaggregation of RAN functions with well defined interfaces, ORAN is “open, modular, enables automation, and is lower cost.  ORAN results in interchangeable network modules (from different vendors) vs vendor proprietary equipment.

AT&T’s 5G Roadmap (only mobile 5G was shown on Al Burke’s slide – nothing on fixed 5G):

  • 2019:  5G NR access with LTE Core network and LTE Access (=signaling?).   The spectrum for AT&Ts initial mobile 5G rollout was not disclosed, but many believe it will be mmWave.
  • 2020-2022+:  5G NR access with 5G Core network (3GPP Release 16 SA or IMT 2020?); also LTE Core with LTE Access
  • 2019-2022+:  mmWave NR : Evolution to Ultra High Speed and lower latency
  • End of 2019-2022+: (unspecified time frame?), AT&T will provide sub 6 GHz 5G coverage in the U.S. speed and latency; dedicated & shared spectrum (LTE-NR-Coexistence)

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

When AT&T introduces its “5G” FWA residential service it will be based on LTE, according to Mr. Burke.  In answer to a question from this author during the Q&A session, he said it would start as LTE but then transition to 5G NR based FWA.  The spectrum to be used was not revealed, but you can assume it will be mmWave (like Verizon’s 5G Home).

Author’s Closing Comments:

A claim we’ve heard before (by Ericsson and Vodafone), but don’t believe:  LTE network and terminal equipment will upgrade to 5G NR via “only a software upgrade.”As noted many times by this author and others,

AT&T has repeatedly stated they would roll out “standards based 5G” in 12 cities by the end of 2018 (they have only 3 weeks to fulfill that promise) and 19 cities in 2019.  Some of the cities identified by AT&T for the 2018 launch include Houston TX, Dallas TX, Atlanta TX, Waco TX, Charlotte NC, Raleigh NC, Oklahoma City OK, Jacksonville FL, Louisville, KY, New Orleans LA, Indianapolis IN, and San Antonio TX.

How long can AT&T claim their “5G” network is standards based when they only support 3GPP release 15 “5G NR” NSA access with a LTE core network and LTE signaling?  The ONLY 5G RAN/RIT standard is IMT 2020 which won’t be completed till the end of 2020.

 

 

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

Fierce Wireless writes about what to expect from AT&T’s 5G mobile service.  We’d like to know How much will it cost? And who will subscribe when only a WiFi hotspot with 5G backhaul is offered?

 

Verizon, Samsung & Qualcomm achieve 1.7 Gbps in mobile 5G test; 5G smartphone for VZ and AT&T

Verizon, Samsung and Qualcomm report achieving a speed of 1.7 Gbps [1] through a mobile 5G connection while using the 28 GHz band. The test took place at Qualcomm’s San Diego, CA facilities, using Samsung’s 4G LTE and 5G NR gear, Verizon’s 28 GHz spectrum and a Qualcomm Snapdragon X50 5G modem.

Note 1.  For IMT 2020, the minimum requirements for peak data rate are: – Downlink peak data rate is 20 Gbit/s. – Uplink peak data rate is 10 Gbit/s.  Recommendation ITU-R M.2083 defines eight key “Capabilities for IMT-2020”, which form a basis for the 13 technical performance requirements. Recommendation ITU-R M.2083 also recognizes that the key capabilities will have different relevance and applicability for the different usage scenarios addressed by IMT-2020 (enhance mobile broadband, massive machine to machine communications, and ultra reliable, low latency communications).

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

“Successful inter-operation of multiple network technologies takes us another step closer to the commercialization of 5G mobility services,” Woojune Kim, the Senior Vice President and Head of North American Business at Samsung Electronics’ Networks Business said in a press release. “We are proud to join with Verizon and Qualcomm Technologies to spotlight the next steps driving network evolution. The use of substantial mmWave spectrum and EN-DC demonstrates how a seamless 5G/LTE approach succeeds in delivering high-speed, high-capacity mobility on next-generation networks.”

The year ahead likely will bring much news about the device market, which promises to be challenging. Indeed, the news seems to be picking up before the year arrives.

Verizon and Samsung said that they will bring a 5G smartphone [2] to market during the first half of 2019. They said that plans are to unveil a proof-of-concept 5G smartphone during the Qualcomm Snapdragon Technology Summit in Maui. The device seems similar to the one used in the data testing. It includes the Snapdragon Mobile Platform featuring the Snapdragon X50 5G NR modem and antenna modules with integrated RF transceiver, RF front-end and antenna elements.

Note 2.  Samsung showed a prototype design of its first 5G phone at the Qualcomm Summit, one that it promised will launch with Verizon and AT&T in the first half of 2019. Those “5G” networks will be based on 3GPP Release 15 “5G NR” non stand alone (dependent on a LTE core network).  The phone “is the result of years of collaboration to deploy an end-to-end solution for commercial 5G services using Samsung network equipment and personal devices,” the companies said in a press release.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

AT&T also said that it will offer a Samsung 5G smartphone during the first half of the year.  Cities AT&T is targeting for mobile 5G in 2019 are Atlanta; Charlotte, N.C.; Dallas; Houston; Indianapolis; Jacksonville; Louisville; Oklahoma City; New Orleans; Raleigh; San Antonio and Waco, Texas; Las Vegas; Los Angeles; Nashville; Orlando and San Diego, San Francisco and San Jose, CA.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

Verizon Tests Interoperable 5G and LTE Technology, Achieves Mobile 5G Speed of 1.7 Gbps

 

5G Network and Smartphone Update: AT&T Verizon and Qualcomm

AT&T is sticking to its “end of the year” 5G commercial deployment schedule, but no smartphones or tablets will be available at that time.  AT&T plans to have 5G available in parts of 12 markets up by the end of the year.  AT&T Communications CEO John Donovan. said AT&T’s 5G is expected to move into 19 cities (so far) in 2019.    AT&T has told Light Reading that it has 5G sites live in Dallas and Waco, Texas now. But the operator has not yet launched its commercial 5G service.

The only confirmed 5G device announced for AT&T’s mobile 5G network is the Netgear Nighthawk 5G Mobile Hotspot, which AT&T calls a “puck.”

Photo: AT&T
Photo: Natt Garun / The Verge

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

“We believe the early 5G opportunities are going to be in enterprise,” Donovan said.  He noted that AT&T’s work with Samsung Corp. on“robotic manufacturing” and augmented reality with Magic Leap Inc. will be future 5G enterprise offerings.  5G smartphones will be available in 2019, according to Donovan.

According to The Verge, Verizon will technically have a phone when it launches its mobile 5G offering in early 2019. If you buy the existing, Verizon-exclusive Moto Z3 which is advertised as “5G ready.” Verizon says its first 5G device will be a magnetic, modular 5G Moto Mod attachment you can snap onto that phone to add speedy 5G NR (3GPP Release 15) connectivity.

AT&T and Verizon both say they’re exclusively rolling out millimeter wave (mmWave) radios, which inherently provide far more bandwidth and capacity than today’s networks. But at 39GHz and 28GHz, those millimeter wave signals also don’t travel as far or penetrate buildings as easily as conventional cellular. That means you’ll probably drop down to LTE speeds when you transition indoors, and in order to cover the same area as today’s LTE cell towers, carriers will need to provide many more smaller cell sites. AT&T says it’s focusing on outdoor cells first, but is also looking at indoor ones for public venues like stadiums and concert halls.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Qualcomm president Cristiano Amon expects the first real wave of 5G smartphones to arrive in Q2 2019 at the earliest.   ”We are working, so as early as the second quarter of 2019, you’ll have smartphones being launched across the United States, across Europe, across South Korea, Australia. Some early in the quarter, some later in the quarter… they’re all going to be Android flagship devices,” says Amon. “You go to CES [in January], you’ll start to see a lot of phone announcements; you go to MWC [in February], you’ll see a lot of actual phone launches.”

Author’s Note:  Don’t expect a 5G smartphone from Apple till 2020 at the earliest.  The company is closely tracking the REAL 5G standard- ITU-R IMT 2020 which won’t be completed till year end 2020.  Companion IMT 2020 standards from ITU-T won’t be finalized till 2021 or later.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

“We need to build a crescendo,” says Amon. “You’re not going to change your phone unless the battery life is higher, the form factor is attractive, and you need companies that can actually deliver the performance,” he added.

“Today you stream music everywhere. You don’t download music anymore; even if you have low coverage, you have enough quality to stream music. 5G will do that for video,” Amon says, before moving on to fancier, further-out predictions like unlimited storage and on-demand processing power from the cloud that can, he imagines, virtually cram the power of a Magic Leap-like augmented reality headset into a normal pair of glasses.”

The Verge says that Qualcomm will announce a new Snapdragon processor at its  third annual Snapdragon Technology Summit next week in Maui.  It is targeted at 5G NR smartphones.   A “Snapdragon 1000” processor for a new wave of always-connected Windows laptops will also be introduced at the summit.

 

 

5G Security Issues Raise Mission Critical Questions & Issues

Researchers have unearthed a security issue with the coming 5G mobile networks that could raise privacy concerns for users. They are raising concerns about the 5G protocol known as Authentication and Key Agreement (AKA), which is considered superior to that of earlier 3G and 4G protocols but still presents potential problems, including failure to keep users’ identity and location data private.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

The type of AKA associated with 5G (via 3GPP- not ITU-R) should ensure that a device and a 5G network can authenticate each other while maintaining a confidential data exchange and keeping the user’s identity and location private. However, the researchers say, in its current state, the AKA could not fulfill those security aims because the requirements it sets forth are not sufficiently precise.

The team of researchers emphasized their belief that the AKA security for 5G would be superior to the AKA used in 3G and 4G network protocols. It still has gaps, though, including one that shows a phone’s presence in the vicinity without disclosing its owner’s identity. Moreover, this vulnerable version of the AKA could result in a person getting wrongfully charged for a third party’s usage of the 5G network.

The published paper about these findings recommends fixes. They include explicitly requiring intended security properties currently missing from the AKA and modifying the key-confirmation component so it offers a provably secure solution. Overall, the researchers say the AKA does not adequately protect privacy from active attackers but admit remedying that problem would not be straightforward.

In an attempt to implement more security in the AKA, the researchers have reached out to 3GPP and hope to engage in a joint effort to improve the protocol before 5G’s widespread rollout. Also, the European Union Agency for Network and Information Security, or ENISA, released a different report warning that identified flaws with signaling protocols on the 2G, 3G and 4G networks could appear in the 5G network.

Ericsson show there could be 3.5 billion Internet of Things units by 2023 — equalling five times the number of connected devices used now. Additionally, the company forecasts that 5G networks will spur the growth of Internet-connected devices.

People became familiar with the security weaknesses of IoT devices when cybercriminals first targeted them with distributed denial of service attacks several years ago.

An insecure 5G network sets the stage for increasingly widespread attacks due to 5G’s high-speed bandwidth, which increases the available attack points. It’s not difficult to imagine a business using IoT sensors within a factory setting and getting shut down due to a DDoS attack.

Chip architecture company Arm is working on a software stack that would let IoT devices run with SIM card chips, thereby making them similar to smartphones with mobile data plans. Then, it would not be necessary to connect IoT devices via Wi-Fi. However, hackers can attack SIM cards and make them unusable. They can also distribute malware through text messages during SIM card attacks.

It’s too soon to say whether hackers will exploit SIM vulnerabilities in IoT devices that may eventually include them, but the possibility is there. In any case, it’s evident that the opportunities 5G offers could spur hackers’ efforts to launch increasingly devastating attacks using methods people already know, as well as wholly new techniques.

“5G doesn’t necessarily changes the risk factors we have today,” said Tom Lally, vice president of sales for data storage and management company, DataSpan, Inc. “But it is going to exponentially increase the threat vectors and opportunities for attackers to exploit.”

“5G is going to enable businesses to connect more and more devices at higher speeds so more data can be consumed at much faster rates,” he says. “Thus, increasing the capacity and data flows in and out of the datacenter. So if you have more devices connected and more traffic flows, then you have more potential vulnerabilities derived from the increase in new vectors.”

“It’s going to become more important than ever to have proper monitoring, be able to identify attacks once inside, and have the capability to respond effectively, to remediate any potential issue,” says Lally. “At the end of the day, you’re still looking for anomalies, you’re just going to have more. So the ability to swiftly identify and respond will be critical to minimizing risk.”

It is both valuable and admirable that researchers endeavored to bring the security concerns mentioned here to light. However, it’s crucial for people to remember that 5G is a pioneering technology. Besides these potential problems, there are inevitable risks not anticipated yet in these early stages.

Conversely, there are unforeseen benefits that are more specific than the advantages so often highlighted in media coverage of the 5G network. For example, some of the inventions people rely on soon might not have been possible to develop on older networks. In order to enjoy all those advantages to the fullest, it’s necessary to continually prioritize 5G network security.

References:

https://www.informationweek.com/strategic-cio/security-and-risk-strategy/the-security-missing-from-5g/d/d-id/1333230

UPDATE:

The real work on 5G security is being done by 3GPP with technical specification (TS) 33.501 Security architecture and procedures for 5G system being the foundation 5G security document.  That 3GPP spec was first published in Release 16, but the latest version dated 16 December 2020 is targeted at Release 17.  You can see all versions of that spec here.

3GPP’s 5G security architecture is designed to integrate 4G equivalent security. In addition, the reassessment of other security threats such as attacks on radio interfaces, signaling plane, user plane, masquerading, privacy, replay, bidding down, man-in-the-middle and inter-operator security issues have also been taken in to account for 5G and will lead to further security enhancements.

Another important 3GPP Security spec is TS 33.51 Security Assurance Specification (SCAS) for the next generation Node B (gNodeB) network product class, which is part of Release 16.  The latest version is dated Sept 25, 2020.

Here’s a chart on 3GPP and GSMA specs on 5G Security,  courtesy of Heavy Reading:

Question: When do you plan to implement the following 5G security specifications? (n=105-108) (Source: Heavy Reading)

 

Calix touts GigaSpire as smart home solution for ISPs

Calix has introduced its GigaSpire smart-home-as-a-service platform as a way for broadband providers (ISPs) to compete in the sector against larger tech firms and device-makers. The platform’s Wi-Fi gateway is combined with a smart home internet of things (IoT) management system. The premise behind GigaSpire is that service providers should pursue a smart home-as-a-service approach and offer an alternative to the patchwork of smart home applications that consumers must now manage on their own. It’s an interesting, yet challenging premise.

To do so, broadband Internet providers will need to go to battle with a wide variety of companies who are now aiming to capture growing smart home revenue as their own, including blue chip technology companies like Google and Amazon. Those two are joined by a growing number of device manufacturers from well known brands like Netgear and Linksys to emerging smart home ecosystem enablers like Ring and Iris.

Patching all of these platforms together can be challenging and frustrating to end customers, and service providers often get the brunt of this frustration in the form of tech support inquiries, whether it’s the provider’s fault or not. Many providers have ventured into managed Wi-Fi services to help curtail this issue, while hoping to generate additional revenue in the process. GigaSpire takes this strategy much further, according to Calix.

In an analyst briefing, Calix EVP of Field Operations Michael Weening says GigaSpire far surpasses any Wi-Fi gateway platform that end customers can buy from any retail or online environment.

smart home-as-a-service

GigaSpire Platform (Source: Calix)

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

GigaSpire runs Calix’s EXOS operating system, which was introduced last year and extends their AXOS access operating system platform into the customer premises. Other GigaSpire features include:

  • Wi-Fi 6 (802.11ax) capable, with up to 12 Wi-Fi streams
  • Intelligent bandwidth optimization using MU-MIMO technology
  • Universal and managed IoT supporting Zigbee, ZWave, combo BlueTooth Low-Energy and BlueTooth Classic
  • Amazon Alexa is integrated into the GigaSpire MAX
  • Instrumentation and analytics providing telemetry, performance and behavioral analytics that CSPs can leverage through the Calix Cloud

Calix also intends to build an ecosystem of smart home applications that will ride the GigaSpire platform, allowing service providers to offer and perhaps monetize smart home IoT applications. Examples provided include smart home device management, home security and network security.

Two Calix customers are acting as launch customers for GigaSpire, including Nebraska-based Allo Communications and Dubai-based du.

“Calix has been a great partner as we’ve built up our home Wi-Fi enabling the best connectivity but also the best customer service through ongoing network management,” said Brad Moline, president and CEO of ALLO Communications in press release. “This new smart home solution is anticipated to build on that connectivity advantage and really put it to use by delivering customized and differentiated service bundles to our subscribers.”

Smart Home-as-a-Service Goals
Calix’s goal with GigaSpire is to create an end-to-end smart home platform that service providers can take to the residential market and offer smart home-as-a-service. Whether that’s through better integration of existing smart home applications customer’s already have, or by introducing new ones through a smart home app ecosystem enabled through Calix designated partners. Calix will extend the GigaSpire platform to the SMB segment with a business focused smart IoT platform in 2019.

References:

https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/10/29/1638536/0/en/Calix-Launches-the-Ultimate-Smart-Home-System-Enabling-Service-Providers-to-Deploy-Cutting-Edge-Solutions-That-Their-Subscribers-Can-t-Find-in-Retail-Stores.html

https://www.telecompetitor.com/can-broadband-providers-succeed-at-smart-home-as-a-service-calix-wants-to-find-out/

https://www.calix.com/platforms.html

 

“America-first, 5G-first”- U.S. 5G leadership is a national imperative

After a meeting with key telecom executives, the Trump administration said it wants to help the wireless industry deploy “5G” quickly.  National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said that 5G support aligns with lower-tax and deregulation policies that encourage private sector growth, adding the U.S. supports an “America-first, 5G-first” approach.

Federal Communications Commission Chairman Ajit Pai called the development of 5G technology “a national imperative for economic growth and competitiveness.”

Pai said 5G networks could effectively remove speed and capacity as meaningful constraints on wireless innovation and could be 100 times faster than current networks.

“The lag time between a device’s request for data and the network’s response will be less than one-tenth of what it is today,” he said. “Wireless networks that today support 1,000 connected devices per square kilometer could instead support 1 million” and could eventually lead to capabilities such as remote surgical procedures, he said.

Administration officials said they have high hopes for the technology that has the potential to help create 3 million new jobs, $275 billion in private investment, and $500 billion in new economic growth.

Although other U.S. government agencies like the FCC and the NTIA have long dealt in spectrum and network deployment issues, the White House summit last Friday was the first major signal by the Trump administration that it also wants to play an active role in smoothing regulations for 5G rollouts. The summit collected executives from the wireless industry with officials from the Trump administration—including Larry Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council, and Michael Kratsios, deputy U.S. CTO and deputy assistant to the President at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, the agency that held the event—along with top House and Senate lawmakers and officials from the FCC and the NTIA.

Officials described the event as an opportunity for White House representatives to listen to wireless industry executives and to learn ways the Trump administration can play a role in 5G.

5G networks will rely on denser arrays of small antennas and the cloud to offer data speeds up to 50 or 100 times faster than current 4G networks and serve as critical infrastructure for a range of industries.

Congress and regulators are also working to free up more wireless spectrum for use by 5G networks and improve other regulations to make it easier to deploy fiber lines, which are critical for 5G traffic from small cells.

In addition to providing vastly greater speed, 5G will allow transportation networks to link connected and self-driving cars, while new wireless sensors will provide real-time health monitoring and other advanced applications.

White House National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said on Friday the 5G race will be won “principally through the free enterprise, free market economy.”

CTIA, a wireless industry trade group representing Sprint Corp, AT&T Inc, Samsung Electronics Co Ltd and Intel Corp, said in a statement after the summit, “We completely agree with the administration, the FCC … and congressional leaders that free market American leadership in 5G is vital for our economy, private investment and future innovation.”

The FCC on Wednesday voted to eliminate regulatory barriers to 5G deployment. Pai said the measure would cap fees that cities could charge to install small cells and requires local governments to promptly review applications.    According to Pai, 5G networks will need 800,000 cell sites, mostly small cells no bigger than a backpack, or about four times the existing number of sites.

Kudlow said federal law allows the FCC to override localities on this issue. “We’re not here to be completely heavy-handed but sometimes you have to do what you got to do,” he said at the summit.

Rep. Walden noted that the U.S. needs to protect and encourage the supply chain for 5G. Although he did not discuss any specific policies or positions, he did say that “there are some who think we can simply ban vendors from American markets, but the marketplace for hardware and software is global.”

Those comments are particularly noteworthy given that the FCCembarked on a proposal to tacitly block any network operator—big and small—from using Universal Service Funds to purchase equipment from companies that pose a security threat. That proceeding at the FCC is widely seen as an attempt by the U.S. government to block Chinese network equipment vendors Huawei from competing in the market.

Walden did not name Huawei and also did not go into specifics of his position on the topic. No other speakers at the event discussed supply chain issues in their public remarks.

Separately, mid-band spectrum received a notable amount of attention from the likes of Rep. Walden and NTIA’s Redl. Speakers generally argued that a robust 5G marketplace will use a wide range of spectrum, from low-band spectrum to high-band spectrum. Officials and lawmakers acknowledged that the FCC is working to auction high-band spectrum starting in November, but several speakers called on regulators to release more mid-band spectrum for wireless network operators and others.

And Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., also noted that both licensed and unlicensed spectrum should be made available in the marketplace.

After the meeting, CTIA President and CEO Meredith Attwell Baker said in a statement that “it was especially noteworthy that today’s event focused so much on the need to free up more mid-band spectrum for commercial wireless use to help meet this goal and to keep up with skyrocketing consumer demand for mobile data. We look forward to continuing this important dialogue with the Administration and policymakers to make 5G a reality.”

However, FCC Commissioner Jessica Rosenworcel, a Democrat, sounded a note of caution on Friday. “As a result of our escalating trade war with China, by the end of this year we will have a 25 percent duty on antennas, switches, and routers – the essential network facilities needed for 5G deployment,” she said.

References:
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Table 1: Top patent owner of 5G declarations as to the number of patent families as to office of application and grant status

SOURCE: IPlytics, November 2019

Company name Declared 5G families Filed at USPTO, EPO or PCT Granted in one office
Huawei Technologies (CN) 3,325 2,379 1,337
Samsung Electronics (KR) 2,846 2,542 1,746
LG Electronics (KR) 2,463 2,296 1,548
Nokia (including Alcatel-Lucent) (FI) 2,308 2,098 1,683
ZTE Corporation (CN) 2,204 1,654 596
Ericsson (SE) 1,423 1,295 765
QUALCOMM (US) 1,330 1,121 866
Intel Corporation (US) 934 885 171
Sharp Corporation (JP) 808 677 444
NTT Docomo (JP) 754 646 351
CATT (CN) 588 360 72
InterDigital Technology (US) 428 346 226
Guangdong Oppo M Telecommunications (CN) 378 363 36
Vivo Mobile (CN) 193 168 0
ASUSTeK Computer (TW) 117 103 35
NEC Corporation (JP) 114 102 84
Apple (US) 79 73 52
KT Corporation (KR) 75 53 15
ETRI (KR) 71 50 20
Fujitsu (JP) 68 18 66
Mororola Mobility (US) 56 54 50
Lenovo Group Limited (CN) 51 48 19
HTC Corporation (TW) 46 44 40
MediaTek (TW) 42 38 30
WILUS Group (KR)  41 20 2
Panasonic (JP)  33 30 9
FG Innovation (CN)  33 33 4
Sony Corporation (JP) 22 17 23
ITRI (TW) 14 13 12
SK Telecom (KR) 12 8 0
Spreadtrum Communications (CN) 11 8 6

Note that Qualcomm (7), Intel (8), InterDigital (12) are only U.S. companies listed in the table above.

Posted in Uncategorized Tagged

KT to build fiber optic network in Philippines as part of $1.8B broadband project

KT CorpSouth Korea’s largest telecommunications network operator, will participate in a nationwide project to greatly improve Internet connectivity in the Philippines, gaining a major foothold in the Southeast Asian country and neighboring region.

KT signed a 53 billion won (US$ 47 million) contract last week with the Philippines’s Converge ICT Solutions Inc. to build an optical fiber network along some 1,570 kilometers (975 miles) of main roads in the northern region of Luzon. The company hopes the contract will lead to more business partnerships with the top Philippines Internet provider in the future.

The latest deal is part of Converge’s $1.8 billion endeavor to expand its broadband coverage throughout the Philippines over the next five years. KT is increasing efforts to expand its business presence and partnerships overseas, notably in AsiaEurope and Africa, with the company’s latest Internet solutions, including GiGA Wire, GiGA WiFi and GiGA LTE.

“The partnership with Converge ICT Solutions is a great opportunity to introduce our technological expertise in telecommunications network planning, construction and operation not only in the Philippines but also in neighboring countries,” said Yun Kyoung-Lim, head of KT’s future convergence and global businesses. “KT will continue its efforts in representing the Republic of Korea to the world as the global ICT leader.”

KT is a global leader in next-generation wireless technology. The company is preparing for the commercial launch of the country’s first nationwide 5G network early next year and successfully showcased trial 5G services with the world’s first 5G-ready network. The company is also a pioneer in future technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous driving, and virtual and augmented reality (VR and AR).

In recent years, KT has installed more than 5,500 kilometers (3400 miles) of optical fiber networks in MyanmarBangladesh and other countries. For the Philippines-based project, the company plans to cooperate with many Korean small- and mid-sized companies, which have proven their high quality through previous overseas projects. KT expects to have more business opportunities in the Philippines, including smart energy, corporate and public innovations, and disaster and safety management.

The Korean telecom leader also signed an agreement last month with Germany-based albis-elcon to provide its GiGA solutions and next-generation technologies to communications service providers in Europe and other parts of the world. KT is also now working on various projects to improve ICT infrastructure in Africa, including broadband networks in RwandaGabon and Botswana and a public security network in Angola.

Luzon is the largest of more than 7,000 islands in the Philippines and is home to the Southeast Asian country’s capital, Manila. More than half of the country’s population, estimated at over 106 million, live on Luzon. Because the country consists of so many islands, the Philippines has experienced difficulties in improving its Internet speed and telecommunications service environment.

When the optical fiber cables project in Luzon is completed in June 2020, a great number of people in the Philippines are expected to benefit from high-speed home Internet connections. Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte has established the Department of Information and Communications Technology, and the administration is promoting e-government services and ICT development.

About KT:

KT Corporation, Korea’s largest telecommunications service provider reestablished in 1981 under the Telecommunications Business Act, is leading the era of innovations in the world’s most connected country. The company leads the 4th industrial revolution with high speed wire/wireless network and innovative ICT technology. After installing 4.5 million fixed lines for 20 million users in just 12 years, KT was the first telecom provider to introduce 5G broad-scale trial service in 2018. It is another step in KT’s continuous efforts to deliver essential products and services as it seeks to be the No.1 ICT Company and People’s Company.

For more information, please visit our English website at https://corp.kt.com/eng/

Cogent Communications still growing strongly -18 years after the Fiber Optic Bust

Cogent Communications, one of the world’s largest ISPs, is carrying more traffic on its network than most incumbent telcos. During its most recent earnings report, Cogent said its quarterly traffic growth came in at 10%, while year-over-year traffic growth hit 44%.   Let’s break that down into on-net and off-net services/customers:

On-net service is provided to customers located in buildings that are physically connected to Cogent’s network by Cogent facilities. On-net revenue was $93.0 million for the three months ended June 30, 2018; an increase of 0.7% from the three months ended March 31, 2018 and an increase of 8.7% over the three months ended June 30, 2017.  Cogent’s more than 65,000 on-net customer connections and its nearly 2,600 on-net office buildings and carrier-neutral data centers send traffic over its all-IP-over-DWDM network, protected at Layer 3, using Ethernet as its network interface.  On-net customers are obviously the most profitable customers for Cogent.

Off-net customers are located in buildings directly connected to Cogent’s network using other carriers’ facilities and services to provide the last mile portion of the link from the customers’ premises to Cogent’s network. Off-net revenue was $36.1 million for the three months ended June 30, 2018; the same amount as the three months ended March 31, 2018 and an increase of 6.3% over the three months ended June 30, 2017.

Total customer connections increased by 13.8% from June 30, 2017 to 76,193 as of June 30, 2018 and increased by 3.1% from March 31, 2018. On-net customer connections increased by 14.1% from June 30, 2017 to 65,407 as of June 30, 2018 and increased by 3.2% from March 31, 2018. Off-net customer connections increased by 12.3% from June 30, 2017 to 10,480 as of June 30, 2018 and increased by 2.3% from March 31, 2018. The number of on-net buildings increased by 161 on-net buildings from June 30, 2017 to 2,599 on-net buildings as of June 30, 2018 and increased by 58 on-net buildings from March 31, 2018.

Cogent classifies all of their customers into two types:  NetCentric customers and Corporate customers.

  1. NetCentric customers buy large amounts of bandwidth from us and carrier neutral data centers and our Corporate customers buy bandwidth from us in large multi-tenant office buildings. Revenue in customer connections by customer type.  There were 33,520 NetCentric customer connections on our network at quarter-end, which declined from last quarter due to significant circuit grooming, consolidating multiple 10 gig circuits to fewer 100 gig circuits at the same location from some of our larger NetCentric customers.
  2. Corporate customer revenue grew sequentially by 2.7% to $83.3 million and grew year-over-year by 11.9%. We had 42,673 Corporate customer connections on our network at quarter-end. Quarterly revenue from our NetCentric customers declined sequentially by 3.4% and grew year-over-year by 1.4%.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

CEO Dave Schaeffer’s Earnings Call Remarks:

The size and scale of our network continues to grow. We have over 927 million square feet of multi-tenant office space on-net in North America. Our network consists of over 31,900 metro fiber miles and over 57,400 intercity route miles of fiber.

Cogent remains the most interconnected network in world, where we are directly connected with over 6,360 networks. Less than 30 of these networks are settlement-free peers. The remaining over 6,330 networks are paying Cogent transit customers.

We are currently utilizing 27% of the lit capacity in our network. We routinely augment capacity in sections of our network to maintain these low utilization rates. For the quarter, we achieved sequential quarterly traffic growth of 10% in what is traditionally a slow seasonal period for traffic growth and we saw a significant improvement in our year-over-year quarterly traffic growth to over 44%.

We operate 52 Cogent-controlled data centers with 587,000 square feet of space and we are operating those facilities at 32% utilization. Our sales force turnover rate in the quarter was 4.8% per month, again better than our long-term average turnover rate of 5.7% per month. And I think a testament to the training and retention programs that we’ve put in place. We ended the quarter with 438 reps selling our services.

Cogent remains the low cost provider of internet access and transit services. Our value proposition to our customers remains unparalleled in the industry. Our business remains entirely focused on the Internet and IP connectivity and data colocation services. Our services provide a necessary utility to our customers. Beginning at the start of Q2 and April 1st, we began selling our SD-WAN services. We do not expect a material contribution from these services for the next several quarters.

We expect our annualized constant currency long-term revenue growth to be consistent with our annualized guidance of 10% to 20%, and our long-term EBITDA margin expansion rates to remain approximately 200 basis points per year for the next several years.

We expect to grow the sales force at between 7% and 10% per year for the next several years, while we expect operational head count growth to be slower at probably 2% to 3%. So the mix will increasingly become more sales-centric. Because of the efficiencies in running our business and the standardization of our products and the systems that we’ve deployed, we can sustain 44% traffic growth, 20% growth in unit number of connections and do that with a increase in operational and overhead employees of only about 2% to 3% per year. The sales force, however, is the engine that will drive accelerating revenue growth. And investing in that sales force has been and continues to be our major focus.

Analysis:

Cogent is trying to provide the most bandwidth at the lowest possible price, which means it’s in a race to run its network at the lowest possible cost, which means it’s in a race to take every advantage of new optical networking and routing technologies, as soon as they’re available.

“We divide the network into four big technology regions — edge routing, core routing, metro transport and long-haul transport,” Schaeffer told Light Reading. “In all of those functional areas we are on our third generation of equipment — we’ve done two complete forklift upgrades in 19 years — and, you know, I’m sure we’ll go to a fourth generation soon,” he added.

Webcast Replays:

The KeyBanc Capital Markets 20th Annual Global Technology Leadership Forum was held at the Sonnenalp in Vail, CO. Dave Schaeffer will be presenting on Monday, August 13th at 10:00 a.m. MT.  Investors and other interested parties may access the live webcast of the presentation by visiting the webcast page.

The Oppenheimer 21st Annual Technology, Internet & Communications Conference was held at the Four Seasons Hotel in Boston, MA. Dave Schaeffer will be presenting on Wednesday, August 8th at 1:05 p.m. ET.  Investors and other interested parties may access the live webcast of the presentation by visiting the webcast page.

The Cowen 4th Annual Communications Infrastructure Summit was held at the St. Julien Hotel and Spa in Boulder, CO. Dave Schaeffer will be presenting on Tuesday, August 7th at 3:30 p.m. MT.  Investors and other interested parties may access the live webcast of the presentation by visiting the webcast page.

 

 

Busting a Myth: 3GPP Roadmap to true 5G (IMT 2020) vs AT&T “standards-based 5G” in Austin, TX

TRUTH about 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) and the path to 5G Standards:

3GPP is a very honest, focused and effective engineering organization that develops technical specifications – not standards.  Not once has 3GPP contributed to the hype and spin embedded in  “5G” propaganda and fake news.  It is the 3GPP  member companies, service providers, and the press that’s guilty of that disinformation campaign.

From the 3GPP website under the heading Official Publications:

The 3GPP Technical Specifications and Technical Reports have, in themselves, no legal standing. They only become “official” when transposed into corresponding publications of the Partner Organizations (or the national / regional standards body acting as publisher for the Partner). At this point, the specifications are referred to as UMTS within ETSI and FOMA within ARIB/TTC.

Some TRs (mainly those with numbers of the form xx.8xx) are not intended for publication, but are retained as internal working documents of 3GPP. Once a Release is frozen (see definition in 3GPP TR 21.900), its specifications are published by the Partners.

All of the above and more were explained in this blog post, but apparently no one paid any attention as the claims of being compliant with “3GPP standards” abound.  Here are two from AT&T:

1.  After the 3GPP New Radio (NR) description/specification was completed in 3GPP Release 15:

“We’re proud to see the completion of this set of standards. Reaching this milestone enables the next phase of equipment availability and movement to interoperability testing and early 5G availability,” said Hank Kafka, VP Access Architecture and Analytics at AT&T. “It showcases the dedication and leadership of the industry participants in 3GPP to follow through on accelerating standards to allow for faster technology deployments,” he added.

2. In AT&Ts recent FCC application for an experimental radio license in Austin, TX, which is in this FCC filing:

3GPP has developed 5G standards that became available in 2018.”

That statement was echoed in a Light Reading blog post titled: AT&T to Show Off Standards-Based 5G in Austin.

My rebuttal in an email to AT&T executives included this paragraph:

As you should be very well aware, 3GPP specifications have no official status and are not standards (as per their website).  More importantly, 3GPPs “final 5G” spec will be in release 16 which won’t be completed till July 2019.  Release 16 and parts of Release 15 will then be submitted for consideration as an IMT 2020 Radio Interface Technology (RIT) at the July 2019 ITU-R WP5D meeting- the first meeting which will evaluate IMT 2020 RIT/SRITs.  All this info and much more is available at the 3GPP website with no log in required for access!
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Here’s the actual status of 3GPP specs directed at 5G standards (IMT 2020) from 3GPP’s Submission of initial 5G description for IMT-2020:

IMT submissions

This document December 2017 version of 3GPP Release 15) is the first of three planned steps spanning two releases from 3GPP, following the decision to submit preliminary descriptions of the solution only when milestones of high relevance are achieved:

  • Release 15 December 2017 version;
  • Release 15 June 2018 version and
  • Release 16  (scheduled for July 2019)

The final and fully comprehensive 3GPP IMT-2020 submission (encompassing both Release 15 and Release 16) for IMT 2020 is planned for July 2019.

To help the ITU-R Evaluation Groups in their work, 3GPP is currently planning a workshop to present the 5G solutions to interested external bodies – specifically the Evaluation Groups – to allow a better understanding of the 3GPP technologies for 5G.

3GPP has agreed to organize a Workshop on 3GPP submission towards IMT-2020in October 2018. Some details are provided below:
•           Dates/Location:
–     October 24-25th, 2018;
–     Location: Brussels (European Commission facilities).
•           Target audience:
–     Independent Evaluation Groups, Regulators, Administrations, Industry Sectors interested in using 3GPP technologies.
•           Scope:
–     Present/describe the 3GPP IMT-2020 submission proposal
•           High level agenda/topics:
–     Specific technical features of the “5G” proposal
–     Submission templates
–     Self-Evaluation assumptions/results
–     Anticipations on the final submission with Rel. 15 and Rel. 16 contents
–     Overview of System Aspects

Here’s a free 3GPP webinar where you can get more information:

http://www.3gpp.org/news-events/3gpp-news/1966-webinar2_ran

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

Comment from Kevin Flynn of 3GPP, which was inadvertently deleted when this website was move to a new compute server in early May 2019:

Kevin Flynn says:

Hi Alan,
I have now updated the 3GPP page on Official Publications (http://www.3gpp.org/specifications/63-official-publications), referenced above. I hope that this does not undermine your excellent article in any way. I have updated the Partners & their web sites and modified the text to bring it up-to-date.

Thanks & best regards,
Kevin Flynn
3GPP Marketing Officer

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

Debunking the 5G carrier and vendor claims:

As we’ve repeatedly stated, ITU-R WP 5D is the official standards organization for IMT 2020 (5G mobile).  They will evaluate RIT/SRIT submissions at their July 2019 meeting.  To date, 3GPP, South Korea, China, ETSI/DECT Forum, and TDSI have all indicated their intent to submit detailed RIT/SRIT proposals at the July 2019 ITU-R WP 5D meeting.  There are significant differences amongst these proposed RITs which WP 5D must sort out and approve before the IMT 2020 standard is completed at the end of 2020.

Note also that there is NO IMT 2020 USE CASE FOR 5G FIXED WIRELESS ACCESS (FWA), so all claims about standards compliant 5G FWA (based on 3GPP release 155G NR – Non Stand Alone” are bogus/fake.

Non Stand Alone” (NSA) 5G NR means that a 4G-LTE network anchors the 5G NR access (see comments below this post).  That LTE network is used for control plane signaling and for the Evolved Packet Core (EPC).  In 5G NR NSA access, the LTE base station (eNB) and the 5G NR base station are interconnected with dual connectivity. The IMT 2020 standard will include a 5G packet core without any LTE components.

In addition to the IMT 2020 specified  (by ITU-R) packet core there is the transport network for 5G, which is described in this ITU-T Technical Report (TR).  There are fronthaul, midhaul and backhaul components described in that TR.  It is a work in progress.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

AT&T to test “standards based 5G” at the Austin, TX Convention Center:

The FCC has just granted AT&T an experimental radio license to test what the mega carrier calls “standards-based 5G” in the convention center in Austin, Texas.  The test will begin at the end of July.   AT&T will run “up to 3” 28GHz fixed base stations in the convention center with connections to “up to 6” compatible user devices at up to 100 meters. AT&T promises demonstrations of 4K TV, volumetric video and eSports, as well mobile gaming, over the air, and more.

Indeed, Austin has been a hotbed for AT&T’s 5G developments. In February, the company announced plans to open a new 5G lab there. One of the first in-house projects built at the lab is the Advanced 5G NR Testbed System (ANTS), which AT&T describes as a first-of-its kind 5G testbed system that is proprietary to AT&T.

AT&T said in January 2018 that it plans to launch 3GPP release 15 based mobile 5G in up to 12 markets by the end of the year.  The mega carrier (and now via Time Warner acquisition an entertainment content company) has been using special events around the country to showcase its 5G technology.

In early June, AT&T staged its Shape conference at Time Warner’s Warner Bros. Studios in Burbank, California, where it showed presentations on edge technologies, artificial intelligence and immersive entertainment, as well as a 5G demonstration with Ericsson and Intel.

At the Electronic Entertainment Expo (E3) in Los Angeles, AT&T conducted a 28 GHz demo to give gamers an up-close look at how a 5G connection can give them a live gaming experience virtually anywhere there’s network coverage. That demo also involved Ericsson, Intel and ESL.

Also in June, there was the 2018 5G demo at the  U.S. Open, which took place at the Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Tuckahoe, New York. Ericsson, Intel and Fox Sports were also participated in that demo.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Here are a few recent IEEE techblog posts related to AT&T’s 5G initiatives:
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Addendum- 3GPP Release 16 and 17 RAN schedule as of Dec 14, 2019:
RAN R17 schedule
Page 211 of 212
1 209 210 211 212