SpaceX
Eutelsat hails EC’s IRIS-2 project to take on U.S. NTN providers
Executive Summary:
The European Commission (EC) has announced the next steps for the IRIS2 [1.] project after reaching an implementation agreement with the prime contractors, one of which is Eutelsat. The EC agreed terms with the SpaceRISE consortium – comprising Eutelsat, Hispasat and SES – for deploying the satellite system, which includes adding 66 more low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites dedicated to defense, security and emergency services, and launching services from 2029.
Note 1. IRIS² Backgrounder:
IRIS² is the European Union’s secure-connectivity LEO satellite program: Infrastructure for Resilience, Interconnectivity and Security by Satellite. It is intended to provide sovereign, resilient communications for EU governmental users while also supporting commercial broadband and connectivity in underserved areas. IRIS² is planned as a multi-orbit constellation of 290 satellites, principally in low-Earth orbit (LEO) and medium-Earth orbit (MEO). Combining LEO’s lower latency with MEO’s wider coverage is meant to support secure, high-availability communications across Europe and beyond.
IRIS² was established under Regulation (EU) 2023/588, the Union Secure Connectivity Programme for 2023–2027. The Commission awarded a 12-year concession in December 2024 to the SpaceRISE consortium—SES, Eutelsat, and Hispasat—with major European aerospace, satellite, and telecom companies participating as subcontractors.
The current planning cited by ESA anticipates first satellite launches in 2029, initial services in 2030, and full operations targeted for 2031. In the interim, initial governmental capability is to draw on pooled national satellite resources through GOVSATCOM.
IRIS² is commonly described as the EU’s third flagship space program after Galileo and Copernicus. Its strategic rationale is European digital and communications sovereignty: reducing reliance on non-European satellite systems, improving resilience against cyber and physical disruptions, and sustaining a European space/telecom industrial base. It is not simply a European retail satellite-internet competitor to Starlink; secure governmental connectivity and strategic autonomy are central design objectives.
A good part of the motivation to build the IRIS2 satellite system is to reduce reliance on U.S. satellites internet providers (e.g. Starlink, Amazon LEO), especially for sensitive military and government communications.
Principal uses of IRIS2 include:
-
Secure communications for EU institutions, Member States, defence/security users, embassies, and critical infrastructure.
-
Crisis management, disaster/humanitarian response, border or surveillance-related applications.
-
Broadband, transport connectivity, satellite trunking, and service in terrestrial coverage gaps.
-
Integration with 5G/non-terrestrial-network technology; the Commission’s 2026 terminal-industrialization call explicitly includes 5G NR NTN-compliant modem/baseband capabilities.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Eutelsat CEO Jean-François Fallacher said this is “a very important milestone” that moves the project on from design and preparation to an “operational phase” and confirms Eutelsat’s role as the program’s “LEO lead.” Fallacher shared a high-level view of some of the system’s new technology that is hoped to give it an advantage over larger U.S. rivals. He said the multi-orbit MEO-LEO constellation is “very advanced,” and will have “much more” capacity than satellite internet provider OneWeb has today.
He also confirmed it will be based on 5G non-terrestrial network (NTN) standards, which is “important.”
“We use 5G NTN technology. For IRIS2, we want to normalize the technology … This is also a way to fight against the American giants because today each of the technology used by ourselves on OneWeb (now owned by Eutelsat), by Amazon or by Starlink are full proprietary technologies,” he said. “Going to normalized technologies such as 5G NTN will also help [in] bringing the cost down [and] having antennas which will be cheaper and of a smaller size.”
Eutelsat, which also operates 31 geostationary orbit (GEO) satellites, gained its LEO constellation with the acquisition of OneWeb in 2023. It is a distant second LEO operator with around 650 satellites, compared to Starlink’s more than 10,000. They both operate LEO constellations, but Eutelsat has a “fundamentally different constellation with different target customers, business models and scale.” LEO connectivity accounted for 25% of Eutelsat’s total revenue of €1.23 billion (US$1.41 billion) for the fiscal year ending June 30, and LEO revenue grew 70% year-over-year.
Photo Credit: HJBC/Alamy Stock Photo
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
For IRIS2, Eutelsat will design and operate 264 dual Mil-Ka/Ku band and 66 Mil-Ka band satellites. The company said it will invest €2.23 billion ($2.57 billion) in the shared infrastructure and €1.16 billion ($1.34 billion) in the commercial infrastructure (which includes Ku payload and commercial ground equipment), with spending phased from 2027 to 2034. According to its concession agreement with the EC, the company said it expects revenue from IRIS2 activity to be more than €10 billion ($11.6 billion) from 2032 to 2040. The Ka-only satellites are planned to start launching in 2029, while the commercial Ku LEO system is expected to be operational by mid-2032. Eutelsat also said it plans to add 229 satellites to OneWeb through 2034 in addition to 440 new first-generation satellites for an investment of €1 billion ($1.2 billion).
https://www.lightreading.com/satellite/eutelsat-hails-5g-ntn-to-take-on-american-giants
European Consortium 5G NTN transmission paves the way for standards based direct to device (D2D) connectivity
Non-Terrestrial Networks (NTN) Tutorial: Architecture, Spectrum, and Technical Foundations
Non-Terrestrial Networks (NTNs): market, specifications & standards in 3GPP and ITU-R
ITU-R recommendation IMT-2020-SAT.SPECS from ITU-R WP 4B to be based on 3GPP 5G NR-NTN and IoT-NTN (from Release 17 & 18)
From LPWAN to Hybrid Networks: Satellite and NTN as Enablers of Enterprise IoT – Part 2
Telecoms.com’s survey: 5G NTNs to highlight service reliability and network redundancy
InterSAT extends Pan-African satellite services via Ku-band on Eutelsat 70B satellite
Orange France satellite Internet based on Eutelsat Konnect VHTS satellite
France’s Eutelsat nears deal to buy UK satellite internet company OneWeb
Analysis & Opinion: SpaceX to build, lease or buy a hybrid/terrestrial satellite network?
Should SpaceX’s Starlink build, lease/rent or buy a hybrid terrestrial/satellite mobile network or perhaps do it through a mix of these alternatives. Several industry watchers see an MVNO deal as the most likely path (we agree- see Analysis & Opinion below). That way SpaceX/Starlink can deliver reliable service indoors and out because it will have access to necessary low band and mid band spectrum, plus access to its own direct-to-device (D2D) service to cover areas out of reach of the terrestrial cellular network. Some analysts suggest that SpaceX might try to exchange some of its spectrum for an MVNO agreement, or perhaps come up with some other means to achieve that goal.
“Starlink is playing the long game. It will continue to negotiate, cajole, and, if necessary, coerce, in an effort to secure an MVNO agreement with one of the Big Three,” MoffettNathanson analyst Craig Moffett said in a recent report (subscribers only) that sized up SpaceX’s options. “It is clear, however, that the Big Three (AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile) fully understand the clear and present danger that would be posed by Starlink’s market entry as another Cable-like hybrid MNO/MVNO.”
Image Credit: Stephen Searle/Alamy Stock Photos
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
A recent a Semafor report suggests the build and buy options are both being consdiered at SpaceX, kicking it off with a lead proclaiming that “Elon Musk is coming for your cell phone networks.” The report said SpaceX is seeking spectrum that can deliver service in “cities and dense areas,” and is exploring some options to get there that include acquiring companies that already own spectrum or obtaining spectrum at auction.
“In the most recent sign that Musk’s Starlink plans to compete directly with AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile. Musk’s SpaceX has taken other steps into the conventional telecommunications business. President Gwynne Shotwell demonstrated a prototype mobile handset to some investors earlier this year, the Wall Street Journal reported. The Financial Times also reported that Shotwell had expressed interest in building their own terrestrial networks.”
“SpaceX wants to grow its Starlink mobile business, which analysts expect to hit $15 billion in revenue this year and which SpaceX, in its IPO pitch to investors, pegged at a $740 billion market. SpaceX is working on new technologies to improve Starlink’s coverage in tree-covered areas and inside buildings, and Musk has also said he’s considered building a hybrid satellite-terrestrial network to bolster the service.”
Elon Musk has kept the door open for SpaceX to attempt a takeover of an MNO in the future. Whether any would be willing to sell is a completely different discussion.
- Roger Entner, analyst and founder at Recon Analytics, suggested that SpaceX’s fight over the upper C-band buildout rules indicates that it’s not shopping to acquire a wireless carrier. He said it shows that SpaceX “is a company that means to win spectrum at auction and build a satellite and terrestrial hybrid network on it from the ground up, the same way it built its own dish and its own router rather than buying either off a shelf.”
- “The key thing to look at is where SpaceX can exert pressure on the MNOs at minimal cost to itself. I expect we’ll see more rumors of a Starlink phone & cable partnership. Perhaps even a CBRS purchase from EchoStar. But strict buildout timetable now makes upper C-band unappealing,” Tim Farrar, principal at TMF Associates, explained on X.
The Semafor report notes that SpaceX’s plans are fluid, and the company could ultimately choose not to follow through. Building a network is capital intensive, requiring continuous, steady investment in both towers and spectrum —- drawing capital away from businesses that investors more richly reward, chiefly AI.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Analysis and Opinion (aided by Perplexity.ai):
SpaceX is most likely to buy spectrum and selectively acquire/lease assets, rather then build a lean, satellite‑centric terrestrial layer — not buy a legacy carrier, and not build a Dish‑scale greenfield MNO.
This is a hybrid “buy‑then‑build” playbook: buy the airwaves (and maybe some small operators or tower portfolios) to secure optionality, then build only the terrestrial pieces that are economically justified, letting Starlink Direct‑to‑Device do the heavy lifting for coverage.
Why a pure “build” MNO is unlikely:
-
Capital allocation: SpaceX’s 2025 capex was already dominated by AI (~$18B in AI spend, with total near‑term IG funding needs around $300B before FCF turns positive). A full terrestrial MNO build would compete directly with that priority.
-
Strategic fit: SpaceX’s historical pattern is to design and build its own infrastructure, but only where it unlocks a new market or margin (rockets, satellites, user terminals). A retail MNO with dense tower grids and low ARPU is a different beast.
-
Regulatory reality: FCC rules for the EchoStar spectrum impose strict buildout and performance obligations, but they also allow blending space and ground infrastructure—exactly what a satellite‑first hybrid needs.
Why a pure “buy a carrier” is also unlikely:
-
No willing seller at the right price: Major carriers have rejected MVNO/wholesale overtures, and buying AT&T/T‑Mobile/Verizon is not realistic.
-
Asset mismatch: Legacy carriers come with large, costly tower grids and cost bases that a satellite‑terrestrial hybrid is designed to minimize.
The middle path: buy spectrum, build sparingly:
Evidence points to this as SpaceX’s actual strategy:
-
Spectrum first: The $17B EchoStar deal (AWS‑4, H‑Block, unpaired AWS‑3) gives SpaceX ~65 MHz of nationwide, exclusive, contiguous midband spectrum explicitly for direct‑to‑cell and hybrid services.
-
Auction strategy: SpaceX is expected to bid aggressively in the upcoming upper C‑band auction (3.98–4.14 GHz, 160 MHz) to secure urban capacity for a full‑service mobile offering.
-
Terrestrial as a complement: In dense areas, smartphones would connect to terrestrial base stations SpaceX plans to deploy; outside those zones, devices would switch to Starlink Direct‑to‑Cell. This keeps tower counts and capex manageable.
-
Selective M&A: Rather than buying a Big Three carrier, SpaceX is more likely to acquire spectrum‑rich smaller operators or lease/buy tower capacity where it accelerates coverage without a full build.
Bottom line:
SpaceX will almost certainly enter the U.S. mobile market as a hybrid operator, but the most capital‑efficient and strategically consistent route is:
-
Buy: spectrum (EchoStar + auctions) and possibly small, targeted assets.
-
Build: a lean terrestrial layer only where density and economics justify it, relying on satellites for the rest.
This balances a valid concern about AI’s capital pull with SpaceX’s clear intent to control the customer relationship and avoid being just a wholesale satellite internet operator.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
References:
https://www.semafor.com/article/07/29/2026/spacex-looks-to-compete-with-the-carriers
FT: SpaceX considering Starlink Direct-to-Consumer mobile service & terrestrial cellular network infrastructure in the U.S.
Elon Musk: Starlink could become a global mobile carrier; 2 year timeframe for new smartphones
US Mobile’s new bundle combines its multi-network mobile service with Starlink residential internet
Direct-to-Device (D2D) satellite network comparison: Starlink V2 (Starlink Mobile) vs “Satellite Connect Europe”
U.S. BEAD overhaul to benefit Starlink/SpaceX at the expense of fiber broadband providers
FT: SpaceX considering Starlink Direct-to-Consumer mobile service & terrestrial cellular network infrastructure in the U.S.
According to the Financial Times (FT), SpaceX is evaluating a strategic expansion of its Starlink satellite Internet service to include a direct-to-consumer mobile service in the United States, a move that could materially disrupt the established U.S. mobile network market. According to sources familiar with recent IPO roadshow discussions, President and COO Gwynne Shotwell indicated that the company is considering both a retail Starlink mobile offering and the potential development of a terrestrial cellular network infrastructure.
Such a shift would represent a transition from SpaceX’s current wholesale and partnership-driven model—where Starlink satellite capacity is integrated with incumbent MNO networks—to a vertically integrated retail service directly competing with Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile. To date, Starlink’s U.S. mobility strategy has primarily relied on enabling partner operators, notably T-Mobile, to extend coverage in underserved and rural areas via satellite augmentation.
Although commercial terms remain undisclosed, industry analysts infer that Starlink currently participates in revenue-sharing arrangements tied to satellite-enabled service tiers. A direct retail model would enable SpaceX to capture a larger share of end-user revenue while reducing dependence on intermediary operators.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Here are some details, as reported by Reuters:
-
SpaceX already offers direct-to-cell connectivity with T-Mobile in the U.S., providing supplemental coverage from space to extend internet access to remote areas. [1.]
-
SpaceX is now considering launching a Starlink retail product and could build its own terrestrial U.S. mobile network, President Gwynne Shotwell told investors during a recent IPO roadshow, the FT report said, citing sources.
-
Reuters could not immediately verify the report. SpaceX did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment outside regular business hours.
-
In September last year, SpaceX bought wireless spectrum licenses from EchoStar for its Starlink satellite network for about $17 billion and then again for $2.6 billion in November, giving it the ability to quickly create a strong and affordable direct-to-cell service by using EchoStar’s wireless airwaves.
-
SpaceX will disrupt the $1.6 trillion U.S. communications industry as its satellite broadband unit Starlink expands, brokerage firm Oppenheimer said in a note earlier this month.
-
SpaceX’s record valuation is grounded in Starlink, which has over 10 million subscribers, and a launch business that analysts and investors say has transformed access to orbit.
Note 1. T-Mobile US D2D service has lower than expected usage:
During T-Mobile US’s recent earnings call, CEO Srini Gopalan admitted that just under a year after its commercial launch, T-Satellite is experiencing lower-than-predicted usage. However, he put a very positive spin on the situation, insisting that the technology is doing exactly what it was designed for.
“Our partnership with SpaceX is very strong. We’ve worked closely with them to really invent an entire category, and that’s been putting an end to dead zones. We’re pleased with that,” Gopalan said.
“Most of the usage we’re seeing is in national parks and if anything, courtesy of the great network Dr Saw has built, we’re seeing a lot less usage than we were originally thinking,” he admitted, referring to Chief Technology Officer John Saw. “But it’s a great complementary product.”
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
SpaceX Satellite Launch using Falcon 9 Rocket. Image Credit: Space Center Houston
This potential expansion follows SpaceX’s recent IPO, which has intensified investor expectations for accelerated revenue growth and diversification. Starlink already operates in more than 150 countries, delivering broadband services via LEO satellite constellations, with approximately 10.3 million global subscribers as of March. A U.S. mobile retail offering would significantly expand its addressable market beyond fixed satellite broadband.
Importantly, SpaceX has not publicly confirmed plans to launch a retail mobile service. However, speculation has increased following its $17 billion acquisition of wireless spectrum licenses from EchoStar in September, widely interpreted as a foundational step toward mobility services. In its bond prospectus, the company noted that while Starlink Mobile is currently expected “to be most impactful for customers in remote areas uncovered by terrestrial mobile networks,” its long-term positioning is more expansive, stating it would “compete to be the preferred connectivity experience to our customers no matter where they are located, whether in rural, suburban or urban areas.”
Despite the strategic rationale, significant technical and economic barriers remain. U.S. MNOs collectively control approximately 1,020 MHz of spectrum, compared to SpaceX’s estimated 65 MHz, according to New Street Research. This disparity highlights the challenges associated with scaling a competitive terrestrial mobile network, particularly in spectrum-constrained and highly saturated markets.
David Barden of New Street Research emphasized the difficulty of such an undertaking, noting that building a “wireless network in saturated markets around the world would be incredibly hard.” However, he added that “[But,] as a starting point for negotiating the best possible revenue-sharing deal with mobile network operator partners? It makes tremendous sense.”
Conclusions:
While a Starlink retail mobile service offering could redefine the company’s role in the telecom value chain, near-term implementation would likely require a hybrid model leveraging both satellite and terrestrial assets, alongside continued strategic partnerships with incumbent operators.
The most useful follow-on question is whether “terrestrial cellular network infrastructure” means acquiring spectrum, building or buying towers, or simply partnering for access and backhaul. If it means an owned network, the economics look very different from satellite direct-to-device: capital spend rises, time-to-scale slows, and the business starts competing head-on with Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile instead of complementing them. If it means a hybrid model, then the more plausible path is a bundled satellite-plus-terrestrial offering targeted at coverage gaps, mobility, and emergency connectivity rather than a nationwide full replacement.
The strategic significance of the FT report is not simply another Starlink service tier, but a possible shift from supplemental coverage provider to vertically integrated U.S. mobile operator, with major implications for spectrum policy, carrier competition, and infrastructure investment.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
References:
https://www.ft.com/content/42af0f15-3aa9-49b7-b429-4a39540af03e?syn-25a6b1a6=1 (paywall)
Ookla: Starlink a viable competitor for hybrid 5G/NTN services due to network performance improvements and larger coverage area
Ookla: D2D satellite connectivity surged 24.5% during last 9 months; Starlink’s footprint expansion leads the way
US Mobile’s new bundle combines its multi-network mobile service with Starlink residential internet
Tutorial: LEO Satellite Internet connectivity, D2D, and major providers
Direct-to-Device (D2D) satellite network comparison: Starlink V2 (Starlink Mobile) vs “Satellite Connect Europe”
Starlink doubles subscriber base; expands to to 42 new countries, territories & markets
Elon Musk: Starlink could become a global mobile carrier; 2 year timeframe for new smartphones
GEO satellite internet from HughesNet and Viasat can’t compete with LEO Starlink in speed or latency
U.S. BEAD overhaul to benefit Starlink/SpaceX at the expense of fiber broadband providers
Telstra selects SpaceX’s Starlink to bring Satellite-to-Mobile text messaging to its customers in Australia
SpaceX launches first set of Starlink satellites with direct-to-cell capabilities
Blue Origin announces TeraWave – satellite internet rival for Starlink and Amazon Leo
Ookla: Starlink a viable competitor for hybrid 5G/NTN services due to network performance improvements and larger coverage area
SpaceX’s Starlink low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation providing high speed internet service is increasingly positioning itself as a scalable broadband access platform within the global telecom ecosystem. It now has growing relevance for both retail and enterprise connectivity use cases.
Network performance improvements (see below) have occurred alongside substantial subscriber growth. Starlink’s global user base expanded from approximately 4.6 million at the end of 2024 to over 10 million by early 2026, underscoring the LEO satellite platform’s ability to scale capacity while maintaining service quality.
This evolution is exemplified by T-Mobile’s “SuperBroadband” offering, which integrates 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) with Starlink satellite connectivity to deliver hybrid terrestrial–non-terrestrial network (NTN) solutions for business customers. The viability of such architectures is directly dependent on sustained improvements in satellite network throughput, latency, and service consistency.
Ookla Speedtest® data for the second half of 2025 indicates significant year-over-year improvements in Starlink’s performance across key network metrics. Median download speeds exceeded 100 Mbps in 49 states, compared to 23 states in 2H 2024, reflecting both increased system capacity and improved spectral efficiency. Performance gains were also observed across the lower quartile of users: 25th percentile download speeds improved in 48 states, with the number of states below 50 Mbps declining from eleven to two (Alaska and Florida). This shift indicates not only higher peak throughput but also improved quality of experience (QoE) consistency across the subscriber base.
Latency performance has also trended positively, driven by both constellation densification and architectural enhancements. While Starlink continues to target ~20 ms median latency, the number of states with median multi-server latency below 40 ms increased from one to ten between 2H 2024 and 1H 2025. By 2H 2025, top-performing regions—including New Jersey, Colorado, Arizona, and Washington, D.C.—achieved median latencies of approximately 37 ms, approaching parity with certain terrestrial broadband deployments and enabling latency-sensitive applications.
There has been a rapid expansion of the Starlink constellation and ongoing satellite technology upgrades. As of February 2026, the constellation exceeded 10,000 satellites in orbit, materially increasing aggregate network capacity and reducing cell congestion through greater spatial reuse. The deployment of Generation 3 (V3) satellites—featuring an order-of-magnitude increase (~10×) in downlink capacity relative to prior generations—has further enhanced throughput. Concurrently, upgrades to inter-satellite laser links have enabled more efficient space-based routing, reducing dependency on terrestrial gateway infrastructure, minimizing bottlenecks, and improving end-to-end latency performance.
Notably, these network enhancements have coincided with rapid subscriber growth. Starlink’s global user base expanded from approximately 4.6 million at year-end 2024 to over 10 million by early 2026, demonstrating the platform’s ability to scale capacity in line with demand while maintaining or improving key performance indicators.
Uplink performance has also improved materially, with 22 states achieving median upload speeds ≥20 Mbps in 2H 2025, compared to zero states in the prior-year period. This threshold is aligned with the FCC’s current broadband definition, underscoring Starlink’s increasing capability to meet regulatory benchmarks for two-way broadband services. Nebraska, New Jersey, and Minnesota recorded the largest gains, with Nebraska leading overall at 24.94 Mbps median upload throughput.
However, performance gains remain uneven across certain geographies. States including Connecticut, Hawaii, and New Hampshire exhibited relatively modest uplink improvements, suggesting localized constraints related to capacity allocation, gateway distribution, or demand density. These variances highlight the continued importance of targeted constellation scaling and ground segment optimization to ensure uniform service quality.
In Q4, 44.7% of Starlink’s user base achieved the FCC’s 100/20 Mbps broadband benchmark, signaling the provider’s transition from a niche rural solution to a high-performance market disruptor. By scaling its LEO constellation to over 10,000 nodes and deploying higher-throughput payloads, Starlink has successfully optimized spectral efficiency and reduced latency, maintaining QoS even as its global subscriber base scaled to 10 million.
While the U.S. remains Starlink’s primary market, the competitive landscape is shifting. Amazon’s Project Kuiper faces significant deployment headwinds; despite an FCC mandate to orbit 1,618 satellites by July 2026, the company has only deployed roughly 240 units and has petitioned for a two-year extension due to launch capacity constraints. This market penetration places legacy GEO operators like Hughesnet and Viasat at a strategic disadvantage. Although these incumbents are leveraging aggressive pricing and CPE (Customer Premises Equipment) refreshes to stem churn, the inherent latency limitations of GEO architecture continue to pose a significant structural barrier to competing with LEO-based performance.
Overall, the data indicates that Starlink is transitioning from a niche rural broadband solution toward a more robust, high-capacity access network capable of supporting hybrid 5G/NTN architectures and enterprise-grade connectivity services.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Addendum – LEO vs GEO satellite internet:
The technical architectures of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) systems are fundamentally defined by their orbital altitude, which dictates their latency, link budget, and network complexity.
- Orbital Mechanics and Altitude:
- GEO satellites reside at a fixed altitude of approximately 35,786 km. They orbit at the same speed as the Earth’s rotation, appearing stationary from the ground, which allows for simple, fixed-point antenna installations.
- LEO satellites operate at significantly lower altitudes, typically between 160 km and 2,000 km. Because they are closer to Earth, they must travel at much higher velocities (approx. 28,000 km/h) to maintain orbit, completing a full revolution in about 90–128 minutes.
- Latency and Propagation Delay:
- GEO: The extreme distance results in a high propagation delay, with a typical round-trip time (RTT) of 500–600 ms. This is unsuitable for real-time applications like VoIP, gaming, or high-frequency trading.
- LEO: Proximity to Earth reduces latency to 20–50 ms, making the performance comparable to terrestrial fiber.
- Link Budget and Power Requirements:
- GEO: High path loss over 36,000 km requires high-power Traveling Wave Tube Amplifiers (TWTAs) and large, high-gain satellite antennas to maintain signal integrity. However, the terminal transmit power required for low-bitrate applications can actually be lower than LEO due to the stable, optimized architecture of legacy GEO MSS systems.
- LEO: Lower path loss enables the use of lower-power RF systems. However, the rapid movement requires complex phased array antennas at the user terminal to electronically track satellites and manage seamless handoffs between nodes in the constellation.
- Network Resilience and Capacity:
- GEO: A single satellite can cover up to 42% of the Earth’s surface, but capacity is centralized; a single point of failure can impact an entire region.
- LEO: Resilience is achieved through distributed constellations of thousands of satellites. These systems often utilize Intersatellite Links (ISLs)—optical or RF mesh networks in space—to route data between satellites, reducing the need for local ground gateways.
| Feature | LEO Architecture | GEO Architecture |
|---|---|---|
| Altitude | 160 – 2,000 km | ~35,786 km |
| Latency (RTT) | 20 – 50 ms | 500 – 600 ms |
| Coverage | Regional/Global via large constellation | ~1/3 of Earth per satellite |
| Terminal Type | Advanced tracking/Phased array | Fixed parabolic dish |
| Operational Life | ~5 years (due to atmospheric drag) | ~15 years |
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
References:
https://www.ookla.com/articles/starlink-hits-new-us-highs
Ookla: D2D satellite connectivity surged 24.5% during last 9 months; Starlink’s footprint expansion leads the way
US Mobile’s new bundle combines its multi-network mobile service with Starlink residential internet
Starlink doubles subscriber base; expands to to 42 new countries, territories & markets
Elon Musk: Starlink could become a global mobile carrier; 2 year timeframe for new smartphones
Direct-to-Device (D2D) satellite network comparison: Starlink V2 (Starlink Mobile) vs “Satellite Connect Europe”
Blue Origin announces TeraWave – satellite internet rival for Starlink and Amazon Leo
Amazon Leo (formerly Project Kuiper) unveils satellite broadband for enterprises; Competitive analysis with Starlink
China ITU filing to put ~200K satellites in low earth orbit while FCC authorizes 7.5K additional Starlink LEO satellites
GEO satellite internet from HughesNet and Viasat can’t compete with LEO Starlink in speed or latency
Direct-to-Device (D2D) satellite network comparison: Starlink V2 (Starlink Mobile) vs “Satellite Connect Europe”
Executive Summary:
1. Starlink is preparing a new Direct-to-Device (D2D) constellation to provide satellite fill-in services and has renamed their V2 D2D services as Starlink Mobile. This rebrand coincides with the introduction of their next-generation V2 satellites, which aim to provide 5G-like broadband speeds (up to 150 Mbit/s) directly to unmodified smartphones. With 650 direct-to-cell Starlink satellites active, part of a constellation of almost 10,000 Starlink satellites of various kinds, that roaming service now offers connectivity to 32 countries across six continents. Today, Starlink V1 D2D has 10 million active users a month – and the company expects to top 25 million by the end of 2026.
Where Starlink V1 delivers text and what Nicolls described as “light data,” meaning only for selected apps, Starlink V2 (Starlink Mobile) will deliver what was called “terrestrial-like connectivity.” In good conditions, “it should look and feel like you’re connected to a high-performing 5G terrestrial network.” To make that happen, V2 will need both new frequencies – the same globally-licensed S-band Starlink will use for emergency alerts – and new, much larger satellites.
Image Credit: ZUMA Press Inc/Alamy Stock Photo
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
2. European operators have launched “Satellite Connect Europe“ to offer wholesale D2D services to mobile carriers. Satellite Connect Europe is actually a joint venture between AST SpaceMobile and Vodafone. It will primarily use satellites provided by AST SpaceMobile to offer direct-to-device (D2D) services in Europe. The venture is building a dedicated, sovereign European constellation, with plans to establish an operations center in Germany.
Five major mobile network operator groups will deploy D2D satellite mobile broadband services across Europe. The agreements cover CK Hutchison, Orange, Sunrise, Telefonica and Vodafone, with customer trials scheduled to start this summer (2026). The service is expected to launch around the end of 2026, with demonstrations planned in Romania before then.
Role of 3GPP NTN specifications:
Both of these initiatives are dependent on 3GPP-based non‑terrestrial networking (NTN) specs, introduced primarily in Release 17 and enhanced in Release 18 to enable direct satellite-to-device connectivity using 5G NR (new radio) and IoT (NB-IoT/eMTC) protocols. 3GPP detailed NTN specs include TR 38.821 (architecture), TS 38.101-5 (user equipment radio performance), and TS 38.104 (base station requirements), supporting LEO/GEO orbits and S/Ka-band spectrum.
-
3GPP Release 17 introduced NR‑NTN and IoT‑NTN profiles, defining waveform adaptations, timing and Doppler compensation, mobility procedures, and MSS band mappings so that satellite and terrestrial RANs interoperate under a single 5G system architecture. These NTN specs will be submitted to ITU-R WP 4B for rubber stamping as ITU-R recommendations (official standards).
-
Both the Starlink and Satellite Connect Europe/AST initiatives map their radio interfaces and mobility behavior to these NTN specifications over time, which should let future 5G devices with NTN support hand over natively between cell towers and satellites without custom stacks.
These two D2D initiatives differ in radio design, spectrum, and integration models with mobile operators which provide the actual end point connections as follows:
Starlink D2D technical details:
-
Starlink’s Direct‑to‑Cell satellites use software‑defined radios and large phased‑array antennas so each LEO satellite behaves like a moving LTE/NR macro cell in space.
-
Unlike standard Starlink Ku/Ka user terminals, the D2D layer transmits and receives in allocated terrestrial/mobile bands (roughly 800–2000 MHz) to talk directly to 3GPP LTE/NR chipsets in unmodified handsets, using TDD LTE initially.
-
The payload compensates for fast LEO motion (~550 km altitude, ~7.5 km/s) with Doppler pre‑correction and timing advance logic in the satellite SDR so that ordinary UE modems still see acceptable frequency and timing error.
-
Onboard beamforming and beam‑hopping allow very narrow spot beams and dynamic power control, which is critical to protect terrestrial networks sharing IMT spectrum and to deliver enough link budget for small handset antennas at long slant ranges.
-
Backhaul from the D2D layer uses Starlink’s existing Ku/Ka links and optical inter‑satellite links into the ground segment, so D2D traffic can be routed either to the MNO’s core via gateways or across the Starlink mesh to another region.
Service model and 3GPP spec alignment:
-
Starlink positions Direct‑to‑Cell as a “fill‑in” layer: SMS/low‑rate data first, then higher‑rate NR‑NTN services as 3GPP Release 17+ NTN features become available in commercial chipsets.
-
The network integrates at the EPC/5GC interface so MNOs can advertise satellite coverage as just another PLMN/RA, letting devices roam seamlessly between terrestrial eNB/gNBs and the Starlink NTN cells, subject to roaming and spectrum agreements.
Satellite Connect Europe D2D technology:
-
Satellite Connect Europe is a wholesale platform that exposes AST SpaceMobile’s LEO D2D satellite RAN to European MNOs, with ground stations in multiple EU markets providing regional gateways, traffic anchoring, and regulatory control within European jurisdiction.
-
AST’s constellation uses very large phased arrays in LEO to form direct 4G/5G broadband links to standard smartphones, targeting multi‑Mbps throughput per device over IMT and MSS spectrum, again without any handset hardware or software changes.
-
The ground segment is designed so that radio resource control, data handling, lawful intercept, and policy enforcement for European traffic all sit under EU‑based operational control, which is a key differentiator versus non‑European satellite operators.
-
Integration work with operators such as Telefónica and Orange focuses on core‑network interconnect, mobility management between terrestrial 4G/5G sites and satellite cells, and using D2D mainly for rural coverage and resilience in outages or disasters.
Comparison — Starlink vs Satellite Connect Europe:
References:
https://www.3gpp.org/technologies/ntn-overview
https://itbrief.co.uk/story/satellite-connect-europe-seals-five-mno-trial-deals
Non-Terrestrial Networks (NTNs): market, specifications & standards in 3GPP and ITU-R
ITU-R recommendation IMT-2020-SAT.SPECS from ITU-R WP 5B to be based on 3GPP 5G NR-NTN and IoT-NTN (from Release 17 & 18)
Starlink doubles subscriber base; expands to to 42 new countries, territories & markets
Elon Musk: Starlink could become a global mobile carrier; 2 year timeframe for new smartphones
Amazon Leo (formerly Project Kuiper) unveils satellite broadband for enterprises; Competitive analysis with Starlink
Blue Origin announces TeraWave – satellite internet rival for Starlink and Amazon Leo
From LPWAN to Hybrid Networks: Satellite and NTN as Enablers of Enterprise IoT – Part 2
Keysight Technologies Demonstrates 3GPP Rel-19 NR-NTN Connectivity in Band n252
Telecoms.com’s survey: 5G NTNs to highlight service reliability and network redundancy
China ITU filing to put ~200K satellites in low earth orbit while FCC authorizes 7.5K additional Starlink LEO satellites
NBN selects Amazon Project Kuiper over Starlink for LEO satellite internet service in Australia
GEO satellite internet from HughesNet and Viasat can’t compete with LEO Starlink in speed or latency
Analysis: SpaceX FCC filing to launch up to 1M LEO satellites for solar powered AI data centers in space
SpaceX has applied to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) for permission to launch up to 1 million LEO satellites for a new solar-powered AI data center system in space. The private company, 40% owned by Elon Musk, envisions an orbital data center system with “unprecedented computing capacity” needed to run large-scale AI inference and applications for billions of users, according to SpaceX’s filing entered late on Friday.
Credit: Blueee/Alamy Stock Photo
The proposed new satellites would operate in “narrow orbital shells” of up to 50 kilometers each. The satellites would operate at altitudes of between 500 kilometers and 2,000 kilometers, and 30 degrees, and “sun-synchronous orbit inclinations” to capture power from the sun. The system is designed to be interconnected via optical links with existing Starlink broadband satellites, which would transmit data traffic back to ground Earth stations.
“Fortunately, the development of fully reusable launch vehicles like Starship that can deploy millions of tons of mass per year to orbit when launching at rate, means on-orbit processing capacity can reach unprecedented scale and speed compared to terrestrial buildouts, with significantly reduced environmental impact,” SpaceX said.
- Energy Density & Sustainability: By tapping into “near-constant solar power,” SpaceX aims to utilize a fraction of the Sun’s output—noting that even a millionth of its energy exceeds current civilizational demand by four orders of magnitude.
- Thermal Management: To address the cooling requirements of high-density AI clusters, these satellites will utilize radiative heat dissipation, eliminating the water-intensive cooling loops required by terrestrial facilities.
- Opex & Scalability: The financial viability of this orbital layer is tethered to the Starship launch platform. SpaceX anticipates that the radical reduction in $/kg launch costs provided by a fully reusable heavy-lift vehicle will enable rapid scaling and ensure that, within years, the lowest LCOA (Levelized Cost of AI) will be achieved in orbit.
- Vacuum-Speed Data Transmission: In a vacuum, light propagates roughly 50% faster than through terrestrial fiber optic cables. By utilizing Starlink’s optical inter-satellite links (OISLs)—a “petabit” laser mesh—data can bypass terrestrial bottlenecks and subsea cables. This potentially reduces intercontinental latency for AI inference to under 50ms, surpassing many long-haul terrestrial routes.
- Edge-Native Processing & Data Gravity: Current workflows require downlinking massive raw datasets (e.g., Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery) for terrestrial processing, a process that can take hours. Shifting to orbital edge computing allows for “in-situ” AI inference, processing data onboard to deliver actionable insights in minutes rather than hours. This “Space Cloud” architecture eliminates the need to route raw data back to the Earth’s internet backbone, reducing data transmission volumes by up to 90%.
- LEO Proximity vs. Terrestrial Hops: While terrestrial fiber remains the “gold standard” for short-range latency (typically 1–10ms), it is often hindered by inefficient routing and multiple hops. SpaceX’s LEO constellation, operating at altitudes between 340km and 614km, currently delivers median peak-hour latencies of ~26ms in the US. Future orbital configurations may feature clusters at varying 50km intervals to optimize for specific workload and latency tiers.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
The SpaceX FCC filing on Friday follows an exclusive report by Reuters that Elon Musk is considering merging SpaceX with his xAI (Grok chatbot) company ahead of an IPO later this year. Under the proposed merger, shares of xAI would be exchanged for shares in SpaceX. Two entities have been set up in Nevada to facilitate the transaction, Reuters said. Musk also runs electric automaker Tesla, tunnel company The Boring Co. and neurotechnology company Neuralink.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
References:
Google’s Project Suncatcher: a moonshot project to power ML/AI compute from space
Blue Origin announces TeraWave – satellite internet rival for Starlink and Amazon Leo
China ITU filing to put ~200K satellites in low earth orbit while FCC authorizes 7.5K additional Starlink LEO satellites
Amazon Leo (formerly Project Kuiper) unveils satellite broadband for enterprises; Competitive analysis with Starlink
Telecoms.com’s survey: 5G NTNs to highlight service reliability and network redundancy
Huge significance of EchoStar’s AWS-4 spectrum sale to SpaceX
U.S. BEAD overhaul to benefit Starlink/SpaceX at the expense of fiber broadband providers
Telstra selects SpaceX’s Starlink to bring Satellite-to-Mobile text messaging to its customers in Australia
SpaceX launches first set of Starlink satellites with direct-to-cell capabilities
AST SpaceMobile to deliver U.S. nationwide LEO satellite services in 2026
GEO satellite internet from HughesNet and Viasat can’t compete with LEO Starlink in speed or latency
How will fiber and equipment vendors meet the increased demand for fiber optics in 2026 due to AI data center buildouts?
Subsea cable systems: the new high-capacity, high-resilience backbone of the AI-driven global network
Blue Origin announces TeraWave – satellite internet rival for Starlink and Amazon Leo
The BBC reports that Jeff Bezos owned Blue Origin plans to create a new communications network called TeraWave, launching more than 5,400 satellites to offer global internet coverage. TeraWave will be focused on data centers, businesses and governments.
In a satellite internet market dominated by Elon Musk’s Starlink, Blue Origin would still have fewer satellites in orbit than Starlink. Yet TeraWave’s network at maximum speed would allow upload and download speeds of up to 6 terabits per second, much faster than rival commercial satellite offerings. The satellites are set to start launching by the end of 2027.
In April, Blue Origin launched an 11-minute space flight with an all-female crew, including Bezos’ now-wife Lauren Sánchez, singer Katie Perry and CBS presenter Gayle King. However, some commentators said it was “tone deaf” for celebrities to be taking part in such a fleeting and expensive trip at a time of economic struggle.
Blue Origin says TeraWave will be focused on data centers, businesses and governments. Blue Origin said its network, at its fastest, would allow upload and download speeds of as much as 6 terabits per second, much faster than rival commercial satellite services currently offer.
TeraWave is Optimized for Enterprise, Data Center, & Government Customers
- Starlink – part of Musk’s rocket firm SpaceX (which is 40% owned by Elon Musk) is by far the #1 satellite internet and phone service provider, primarily to individual customers.
- Blue Origin’s TeraWave satellite network will also compete with Amazon Leo, but they are targeting different market segments despite both being backed by Jeff Bezos. While it currently has around 180 satellites in orbit, having launched dozens more just last week, it plans to have more than 3,000 in orbit. Like Starlink, Amazon is also more focused on the general public than businesses and governments, positioning Leo as a way to offer high-speed internet access globally. It has not said when all of the Leo satellites will be in orbit.
| Feature | Blue Origin TeraWave | Amazon Leo (formerly Project Kuiper) |
|---|---|---|
| Target Market | Enterprises, data centers, governments, and other high-capacity users. | Consumers and communities in remote and underserved areas. |
| Service Goal | Provide extremely high-speed, symmetrical, and redundant backbone connectivity. | Deliver general high-speed broadband internet access (consumer speeds). |
| Projected Speeds | Up to 6 terabits per second (Tbps) via optical links in MEO. | Up to 1 gigabit per second (Gbps) for its highest-end user terminal. |
| Constellation Size | Plan for 5,408 satellites (LEO and MEO). | Plan for over 3,200 satellites (LEO only). |
In November, Blue Origin successfully landed a rocket booster on a floating platform for the first time. Only SpaceX had previously accomplished that feat.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
References:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn0yydwe89jo
AST SpaceMobile to deliver U.S. nationwide LEO satellite services in 2026
FCC grants Amazon’s Kuiper license for NGSO satellite constellation for internet services
Amazon to Spend Billions on 38 Space Launches for Project Kuiper
Starlink doubles subscriber base; expands to to 42 new countries, territories & markets
China ITU filing to put ~200K satellites in low earth orbit while FCC authorizes 7.5K additional Starlink LEO satellites
Amazon Leo (formerly Project Kuiper) unveils satellite broadband for enterprises; Competitive analysis with Starlink
Amazon launches first Project Kuiper satellites in direct competition with SpaceX/Starlink
NBN selects Amazon Project Kuiper over Starlink for LEO satellite internet service in Australia
Elon Musk: Starlink could become a global mobile carrier; 2 year timeframe for new smartphones
GEO satellite internet from HughesNet and Viasat can’t compete with LEO Starlink in speed or latency
China ITU filing to put ~200K satellites in low earth orbit while FCC authorizes 7.5K additional Starlink LEO satellites
- Purpose: The planned systems are intended to provide global broadband connectivity, data relay, and positioning services, directly competing with U.S. efforts like SpaceX’s Starlink network.
- Filing Entities: The primary filings were submitted by the state-backed Institute of Radio Spectrum Utilization and Technological Innovation, along with other commercial and state-owned companies like China Mobile and Shanghai Spacecom.
- Status: These filings are an initial step in a long international regulatory process and serve as a claim to limited spectrum and orbital slots. They do not guarantee all satellites will ultimately be built or launched. The actual deployment will be a gradual process over many years.
- Context: The move is part of an escalating “space race” to dominate the LEO environment. Early filings are crucial for securing priority access to orbital resources and avoiding signal interference. The sheer scale of the Chinese proposal would, if realized, dwarf most other planned constellations.
- Regulations: Under ITU rules, operators must deploy a certain percentage of the satellites within seven years of the initial filing to retain their rights.
- Shanghai Yuanxin (Qianfan), currently China’s most advanced LEO satellite operator, has submitted a regulatory request for an additional 1,296 satellites.
- Telecommunications giant China Mobile is planning two separate constellations totaling 2,664 satellites.
- ChinaSat, the established state-owned satellite provider, is focusing on a 24-satellite medium-Earth orbit (MEO) system.
- GalaxySpace, a private satellite manufacturer based in Beijing, has applied for 187 satellites, and China Telecom has applied for 12.
Image Credit: Klaus Ohlenschlaeger/Alamy Stock Photo
“This gives SpaceX what they need for the next couple of years of operation. They’re launching a bit over 3,000 satellites a year, so 7,500 satellites being authorized is potentially enough for SpaceX to do what they want to do until late 2027,” said Tim Farrar, satellite analyst and president at TMF Associates.
SpaceX has plans for a larger D2D satellite constellation that would use the AWS-4 and H-block spectrum it is acquiring from EchoStar. It is awaiting FCC approval for the US$17 billion deal, but the spectrum is not expected to be transferred until the end of November 2027.
The FCC noted that the changes will allow the Starlink system to serve more customers and deliver “gigabit speed service.” Along with permission for another tranche of satellites, the FCC has set new parameters for frequency use and lower orbit altitudes. The modified authorizations will also apply to new satellites to be launched.
Starlink’s LEO satellite network competitors are Amazon Leo, OneWeb and AST Space Mobile.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
References:
U.S. BEAD overhaul to benefit Starlink/SpaceX at the expense of fiber broadband providers
Huge significance of EchoStar’s AWS-4 spectrum sale to SpaceX
Telstra selects SpaceX’s Starlink to bring Satellite-to-Mobile text messaging to its customers in Australia
SpaceX launches first set of Starlink satellites with direct-to-cell capabilities
SpaceX has majority of all satellites in orbit; Starlink achieves cash-flow breakeven
Amazon Leo (formerly Project Kuiper) unveils satellite broadband for enterprises; Competitive analysis with Starlink
NBN selects Amazon Project Kuiper over Starlink for LEO satellite internet service in Australia
GEO satellite internet from HughesNet and Viasat can’t compete with LEO Starlink in speed or latency
Amazon launches first Project Kuiper satellites in direct competition with SpaceX/Starlink
Vodafone and Amazon’s Project Kuiper to extend 4G/5G in Africa and Europe
Starlink doubles subscriber base; expands to to 42 new countries, territories & markets
Starlink, the satellite internet service by SpaceX, has nearly doubled its internet subscriber base in 2025 to over 9 million global customers. This rapid expansion from approximately 4.6 million subscribers at the end of 2024 has been driven by new service launches in 42 countries and territories, new subscription options, and the company’s focus on bridging the digital divide in remote and underserved areas.
- Total Subscribers: As of December 2025, Starlink connects over 9 million active customers across 155 countries.
- Growth Rate: The company added its most recent million users in just under seven weeks, a record pace of over 20,000 new users daily. Overall internet traffic from users more than doubled in 2025.
- Geographic Expansion: Starlink’s growth is heavily fueled by international markets where traditional broadband is limited. The U.S. subscriber base alone reached over 2 million by mid-2025.
- Infrastructure: SpaceX has focused heavily on scaling its network capacity, operating more than 9,000 active satellites in orbit and investing heavily in ground infrastructure.
Starlink’s Ground Network:
Starlink has also deployed the largest satellite ground network with more than 100 gateway sites in the United States alone – comprising a total of over 1,500 antennas – are strategically placed to deliver the lowest possible latency, especially for those who live in rural and remote areas.
Starlink produces these gateway antennas at our factory in Redmond, Washington where they rapidly scaled production to match satellite production and launch rate.
Network Resilience:
With more than 7,800 satellites in orbit, Starlink customers always have multiple satellites in view, as well as multiple gateway sites and internet points-of-presence locations (PoPs). As a result, Starlink customers benefit from continuous service even when terrestrial broadband is suffering from fiber cuts, subsea cable damage, and power outages that can deny service to millions of individuals for days.
Additionally, each Starlink satellite is equipped with cutting-edge optical links that ensure they can relay hundreds of gigabits of traffic directly with each other, no matter what happens on the ground. This laser network enables Starlink satellites to consistently and reliably deliver data around the world and route traffic around any ground conditions that affect terrestrial service at speeds that are physically impossible on Earth.
Starlink’s Latency:
To measure Starlink’s latency, the company collects anonymized measurements from millions of Starlink routers every 15 seconds. In the U.S., Starlink routers perform hundreds of thousands of speed test measurements and hundreds of billions of latency measurements every day. This high-frequency automated measurement assures consistent data quality, with minimal sampling bias, interference from Wi-Fi conditions, or bottlenecks from third-party hardware.
As of June 2025, Starlink is delivering median peak-hour latency of 25.7 milliseconds (ms) across all customers in the United States. In the US, fewer than one percent of measurements exceed 55 ms, significantly better than even some terrestrial operators.
- Addressing the Digital Divide: Starlink has positioned itself as a critical solution for rural and remote communities, offering high-speed, low-latency internet where fiber or cable is unfeasible.
- New Services: The company is expanding beyond individual households to include services for airlines, maritime operators, and businesses. There are also plans for a direct-to-cell service in partnership with mobile carriers like T-Mobile.
- Next-Generation Satellites: To manage the growing user base and increasing congestion, SpaceX plans to launch its larger, next-generation V3 satellites in 2026, which are designed to offer gigabit-class connectivity and dramatically increase network capacity.
- IPO Considerations: Starlink’s significant growth and role as SpaceX’s primary revenue driver have positioned the parent company for a potential initial public offering (IPO) in 2026.
Competition:
Starlink’s main LEO competitors are Amazon Leo (Project Kuiper) and OneWeb (Eutelsat), aiming for similar high-speed, low-latency service, while established providers Hughesnet and Viasat (mostly GEO) offer more traditional, affordable satellite options but with higher lag, though they’re adapting. Starlink leads in consumer availability and speed currently, but Amazon and OneWeb are rapidly scaling to challenge its dominance with LEO constellations, offering faster speeds and lower latency than older satellite tech.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
References:
https://starlink.com/updates/network-update
Elon Musk: Starlink could become a global mobile carrier; 2 year timeframe for new smartphones
Amazon Leo (formerly Project Kuiper) unveils satellite broadband for enterprises; Competitive analysis with Starlink
NBN selects Amazon Project Kuiper over Starlink for LEO satellite internet service in Australia
GEO satellite internet from HughesNet and Viasat can’t compete with LEO Starlink in speed or latency
KDDI unveils AU Starlink direct-to-cell satellite service
Telstra selects SpaceX’s Starlink to bring Satellite-to-Mobile text messaging to its customers in Australia
U.S. BEAD overhaul to benefit Starlink/SpaceX at the expense of fiber broadband providers
One NZ launches commercial Satellite TXT service using Starlink LEO satellites
Reliance Jio vs Starlink: administrative process or auction for satellite broadband services in India?
FCC: More competition for Starlink; freeing up spectrum for satellite broadband service
SpaceX launches first set of Starlink satellites with direct-to-cell capabilities
Starlink Direct to Cell service (via Entel) is coming to Chile and Peru be end of 2024
Elon Musk: Starlink could become a global mobile carrier; 2 year timeframe for new smartphones
Yesterday, during a segment of the All-in Podcast dedicated to the SpaceX-EchoStar spectrum sales agreement [1.], Space X/Starlink boss Elon Musk was asked if this sets the industry down a path where Starlink’s end goal is to emerge as a global carrier that, effectively, would limit the role of regional carriers. “That would be one of the options,” Musk responded. Musk downplayed any threat against AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile. The podcast section dedicated to the EchoStar agreement starts around the 16:50 mark. You can start watching at that point via this YouTube link.
Note 1. SpaceX’s $17 billion agreement with EchoStar includes $8.5 billion in stock, plus $2 billion of cash interest payments payable on EchoStar debt. Separately, AT&T’s is paying $23 billion – all in cash – for its acquisition of EchoStar’s spectrum.
Regarding the EchoStar spectrum deal, Musk said, “This is kind of a long term thing. It will allow SpaceX to deliver high bandwidth connectivity directly from the satellites to the phones.”
Musk said that deal would not seriously challenge the big three U.S. mobile carriers. He said:
“To be clear, we’re not going to put the other carriers out of business. They’re still going to be around because they own a lot of spectrum. But, yes, you should be able to have a Starlink, like you have an AT&T or T-Mobile or Verizon, or whatever. You can have an account with Starlink that works with your Starlink [satellite] antenna at home with … Wi-Fi, as well as on your phone. We’d be a comprehensive solution for high bandwidth at home and high bandwidth for direct-to-cell.”
“Could you buy Verizon?” Musk was asked. “Not out of the question. I suppose that may happen,” Musk said with a chuckle.
That idea at least “highlights the possibility that SpaceX could pursue additional spectrum,” LightShed Partners analysts Walter Piecyk and Joe Galone explained in this blog post. “We highly doubt SpaceX has any interest in the people or infrastructure of a telco, there are plenty of compelling spectrum assets in and outside of those carriers to consider.”
Getting smartphones equipped with chips to support those new frequency bands will take some time. Musk estimated that’s “probably a two-year timeframe.” LightShed Partners analysts agreed, “On devices, Elon’s two-year timeline for a Starlink phone isn’t surprising given spectrum banding, chip development, and satellite integration. He’s mused before that if phone manufacturers continued to hinder his technology that he “would make a phone as a forcing function to compete with them.”
Some analysts view MVNO agreements as Starlink’s best route to becoming a full scale mobile carrier of satellite and terrestrial wireless services.
“The most plausible business model is that Starlink partners with MNOs for them to resell the service or embed the service as part of their plans,” Lluc Palerm Serra, research director at Analysys Mason, told PCMag.
LightShed Partners agreed. Musk’s point that SpaceX isn’t out to displace the incumbent carriers “reinforced our view that securing an MVNO deal will be essential if SpaceX wants to deliver a Starlink phone directly to consumers,” LightShed’s Walter Piecyk and Joe Galone explained in this blog post.
“In parallel, we’re working on the satellites and working with the handset makers to add these frequencies to the phones,” Musk said. “And the phones will then handshake well to achieve high-bandwidth connectivity. The net effect is that you should be able to watch videos anywhere on your phone.”
AT&T CEO John Stankey addressed Starlink’s “mobile-first” possibility earlier this week at an investor conference. Starlink’s current access to spectrum, including what is coming way of EchoStar, isn’t enough to create a “robust terrestrial replacement,” he said. But he acknowledged that, with the right type of commitments, perhaps it could happen someday.
“EchoStar still owns the highly lucrative 700 and AWS-3 spectrum, in which we note that all three wireless carriers have a robust ecosystem,” TD Cowen analyst Gregory Williams wrote in a note earlier this week. “Whether EchoStar sells more [spectrum] in short order remains to be seen,” TD Cowen’s Williams wrote Monday, explaining that, with the FCC dispute resolved, it may hold onto its portfolio longer. “EchoStar is not a forced seller, now has an excellent balance sheet and liquidity, and may desire to hold onto the spectrum as long as possible for higher sale valuations at a later date,” he added.
References:
https://www.lightreading.com/5g/turning-starlink-into-a-global-carrier-one-of-the-options-musk-says
Elon Talks Starlink Phone. Disruption Looms for Telcos and Apple
Huge significance of EchoStar’s AWS-4 spectrum sale to SpaceX
U.S. BEAD overhaul to benefit Starlink/SpaceX at the expense of fiber broadband providers
Telstra selects SpaceX’s Starlink to bring Satellite-to-Mobile text messaging to its customers in Australia
SpaceX launches first set of Starlink satellites with direct-to-cell capabilities
SpaceX has majority of all satellites in orbit; Starlink achieves cash-flow breakeven
