Starlink – IEEE ComSoc Technology Blog

Starlink Mobile: NTN–Terrestrial Convergence, Network Capacity, and the Limits of Disruption

Posted on August 8, 2026 by Alan Weissberger

Executive Summary:

Elon Musk’s strategic objective for Starlink extends beyond satellite broadband connectivity for remote, maritime, aviation, and enterprise users. SpaceX is positioning Starlink for a broader role in mobile communications through an integrated non-terrestrial network (NTN) and terrestrial-network architecture. That strategy could combine direct-to-device (D2D) satellite connectivity, satellite backhaul, selected terrestrial access infrastructure, and potentially a retail mobile service.

Financial markets have treated that prospect seriously. Shares of U.S. wireless network operators have been under pressure since SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell described the opportunity for “Starlink Mobile” as “huge,” in a CNBC interview on June 12th. On SpaceX’s recent earnings call, Shotwell characterized the U.S. wireless market as generating $600 billion in annual revenue and stated, “and I anticipate us to be able to acquire quite a few of their customers because I think our service will be better.”

Editor’s Note: The combined annual revenue of AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile is closer to $360 billion, depending on the reporting period and whether total revenue or service revenue is used.

The timing, service architecture, spectrum strategy, device ecosystem, and go-to-market model for a SpaceX mobile offering remain unresolved. A central distinction is needed: direct-to-device NTN service, satellite backhaul, a terrestrial radio access network (RAN), and a consumer mobile service are related but technically and commercially distinct propositions.

The most plausible medium-term outcome is not wholesale replacement of U.S. mobile network operators (MNOs), but deeper NTN–terrestrial integration. LEO satellite systems can extend coverage, improve resilience, support mobility, and connect underserved areas. Dense terrestrial networks retain structural advantages for high-traffic urban service, indoor coverage, and busy-hour mobile capacity.

“The perceived risk of Starlink Mobile disrupting the U.S. wireless industry is greater than the actual risk in the next one to two years,” says Morgan Stanley analyst Sean Diffley.

Starlink’s satellite-broadband business serves 12 million subscribers and reportedly generates profit margins above 60%. Musk’s ambitions, however, extend beyond connectivity for aircraft, ships, and remote fixed locations. SpaceX plans a large third-generation Starlink constellation, supported by the anticipated launch economics of its fully reusable Starship system. Starlink V3 satellites are expected to materially increase satellite capacity relative to earlier generations.

However, aggregate constellation capacity should not be equated with mobile-network capacity in dense urban markets. The relevant question is how much spectrum, beam capacity, spatial reuse, and backhaul capacity can be delivered to a given area during the busy hour.

Image Source: Facebook

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Starlink Mobile could develop along four, potentially overlapping, paths:

Service or architecture	Primary function	Principal constraint
Direct-to-device NTN	Extends basic connectivity beyond terrestrial coverage using standard or adapted mobile devices	Limited shared spectrum and capacity over large beam footprints
Satellite backhaul	Connects selected remote, temporary, or difficult-to-fiber terrestrial sites	Cost, capacity, availability, and traffic concentration
Hybrid NTN–terrestrial network	Combines satellite coverage extension with targeted terrestrial RAN deployment	Capital intensity and operational integration
Retail mobile service or MVNO	Markets consumer service using wholesale terrestrial access and Starlink capabilities	Dependence on partner economics and network-control limitations

The proposed Starlink Mobile service should therefore be assessed as an integrated network proposition, not as a simple satellite replacement for a nationwide cellular network.

Why Terrestrial Networks Retain an Advantage:

The central technical constraint is spatial/spectrum reuse. Terrestrial mobile networks deliver high area capacity by repeatedly reusing licensed spectrum across dense grids of macro cells, small cells, and indoor systems. Capacity is further increased through sectorization, advanced antenna systems, massive MIMO, carrier aggregation, and high-capacity fiber or microwave backhaul.

A LEO satellite system has different strengths. It can provide wide-area reach, support mobility, offer resilience during terrestrial outages, and extend coverage to regions where conventional network deployment is uneconomic. Yet its radio resources are shared across comparatively large beam footprints. This creates more demanding link-budget, capacity, and spectral-efficiency constraints in high-density areas, particularly for indoor service and busy-hour traffic.

Terrestrial-cell coverage areas vary considerably with spectrum band, terrain, urban morphology, antenna configuration, and load. Nevertheless, the architectural distinction remains: terrestrial networks achieve high capacity by spatially reusing spectrum over relatively small geographic areas, whereas satellite systems must manage shared capacity over much broader footprints.

For this reason, Starlink V3 satellites may substantially improve overall system capability without eliminating the terrestrial RAN advantage in dense urban and suburban markets. The strongest near-term use cases for NTN are likely to include coverage extension, emergency communications, maritime and aviation connectivity, mobility, IoT, selected backhaul, and service in remote or underserved locations.

3GPP’s NTN work is specifically directed toward integration with terrestrial cellular and wireline networks, reinforcing the view that NTN will develop as part of a broader communications architecture rather than wholly separate from it. Analyss opinions:

Daiwa Capital Markets analyst Jonathan Kees similarly argues that Starlink is “only a complement, not a substitute” for existing wireless infrastructure.
BofA Securities analyst Michael Funk reaches a comparable conclusion: “Existing direct-to-device satellite technology [is] underdeveloped and largely complementary to terrestrial mobile networks,” Funk says.

Spectrum, Capital, and AI:

SpaceX has acquired valuable spectrum assets through its EchoStar transactions. The FCC approved the transfer of approximately 65 MHz of spectrum to SpaceX for next-generation direct-to-device use. This is strategically important, but spectrum ownership alone does not establish a nationwide facilities-based mobile network.

A fourth nationwide MNO would require much more than spectrum. It would require:

Radio-access infrastructure, including macro sites, small cells, antennas, radios, and power.
High-capacity backhaul and transport networks.
Mobile core-network functions, service assurance, cybersecurity, and operational-support systems.
Device testing and certification, distribution, retail channels, billing, customer care, and subscriber-acquisition spending.
Sustained capital investment to expand coverage and capacity as traffic grows.

SpaceX must also finance Starlink V3 production, launches, constellation replenishment, gateways, ground infrastructure, and continuing development of D2D and NTN capabilities. At the same time, the company is investing heavily in AI infrastructure and Starship. Reported second-quarter capex exceeded $18 billion, including approximately $15.83 billion associated with AI infrastructure.

This does not establish that SpaceX lacks the financial capability to enter mobile communications. It does establish a major capital-allocation challenge. AI infrastructure requires rapid, front-loaded investment; terrestrial mobile networks require multi-year and geographically distributed deployment; and satellite systems require recurring capital expenditure for replenishment and capacity expansion.

—->Please see detailed discussion of this issue in Addendum below Conclusions subhead.

The key strategic risk is therefore prioritization. If AI, Starship, and satellite-constellation investment continue to absorb the majority of incremental capital, Starlink Mobile may progress more slowly as an independent terrestrial build. It may instead favor targeted terrestrial deployment, satellite-enabled backhaul, wholesale arrangements, or an MVNO model.

Starlink Coverage Issues as per Iain Morris of Light Reading:

Starlink is estimated to have between 3 and 4 million subscribers in the U.S., mostly in rural areas where there is no fixed or mobile alternative. That is, after all, why someone would opt for satellite broadband. But a small cell network built on the rooftops of these 3 to 4 million customers – or several times that amount – is not going to provide the mobile coverage demanded by anyone who even occasionally travels a few miles from home. And inside the building, what advantage would a Starlink cellular service have over Starlink-supported Wi-Fi?

SpaceX cannot possibly hope to address this coverage problem without some kind of physics-defying technological breakthrough. According to figures shared by an authoritative source on the telco side, a small cell might get you coverage about half a kilometer from the basestation, while a rural macro site would take you up to 20 kilometers from it. In urban areas where higher-frequency spectrum comes into play, this radius would probably fall to about 2 kilometers, making small cells look more competitive. The trouble there is Starlink’s lack of subscribers in cities.

Other estimates do not improve the outlook. William Webb, an academic and analyst who previously worked for UK telecom regulator Ofcom, thinks Starlink might be able to achieve a coverage radius of 1 to 2 kilometers with roof-mounted antennas, “assuming a reasonably high gain cellular antenna is integrated into the Starlink terminal and oriented correctly,” as he wrote in a LinkedIn update. But mounting below roof level would reduce the figure to less than 1 kilometer, according to Webb.

“The biggest issue will likely be that overall coverage will be patchy, concentrated in areas where there are the most Starlink broadband subscribers,” he said. “These are likely to be rural areas where fixed broadband provision is poor. As a result, coverage will likely be overlapping in rural communities but sparse outside of these areas.”

Commercial Models and Possible Partnerships:

SpaceX may determine that a fully independent nationwide mobile network is not the most efficient near-term approach. An MVNO arrangement would allow SpaceX to purchase terrestrial capacity at wholesale rates while offering a consumer service incorporating Starlink capabilities. Such a model could provide near-national coverage more rapidly, though it would reduce SpaceX’s control over network economics, service differentiation, and quality-of-service management.

Several Starlink Mobile outcomes are plausible:

Path	Capital requirement	Likely implication
Independent nationwide MNO	Very high	Long deployment cycle, substantial execution risk, and intense capital competition with AI, Starship, and satellite programs
Hybrid NTN–terrestrial network	High, but targeted	Satellite supports coverage extension and selected backhaul; terrestrial infrastructure is concentrated where capacity demand is greatest
MVNO or strategic MNO partnership	Lower upfront capex	Faster national-market entry, but less control over margins, network policy, and customer experience

Why would AT&T, Verizon, or T-Mobile enter an MVNO or deeper partnership with a prospective competitor? The answer may be competitive strategy. The first MNO to secure a commercially favorable relationship with SpaceX could gain a relative advantage in coverage, satellite integration, customer acquisition, or enterprise services.

SpaceX is “going to have to partner with one of the mobile network operators like a Verizon or T-Mobile,” says RBC Capital Markets analyst Ken Herbert. “They’re going to have to find ways to work with other companies.”

T-Mobile already has a direct-to-cell/device (D2D) relationship with SpaceX. Verizon’s FWA business is more directly exposed to fixed-broadband competition from Starlink, while AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile each possess extensive spectrum, RAN, transport, and customer-service assets that would be difficult and costly for a new nationwide entrant to replicate.

Evaluating Starlink/Spacex Deployment Plans:

Starlink’s satellite-broadband business serves 12 million subscribers and reportedly generates profit margins above 60%. Musk’s ambition, however, is substantially broader than providing internet access to aircraft and oceangoing vessels. SpaceX plans to deploy as many as 100,000 third-generation Starlink satellites, supported by the anticipated economics of its fully reusable Starship launch system. Starship remains in the test phase, but SpaceX has stated that it is designed to place up to 150 metric tons in orbit per launch at approximately one-tenth the per-kilogram cost of Falcon 9. Starlink V3 satellites are expected to provide roughly 10 times the capacity of earlier-generation spacecraft.

SpaceX is advancing these plans at a time when the U.S. communications market is already experiencing cross-sector competitive convergence. Fifth-generation mobile technology enabled MNOs to expand fixed wireless access (FWA) offerings and compete more directly with cable operators for residential broadband customers. The resulting service bundles combine mobile subscriptions, home broadband, and, in some cases, video and value-added services. Cable operators, in turn, have expanded mobile offerings, generally using Wi-Fi offload, their extensive wireline footprints, and mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) arrangements with incumbent wireless carriers for wide-area cellular coverage.

This competitive equilibrium has modestly favored wireless operators, although neither sector has emerged unambiguously dominant. AT&T, for example, is expected to generate sales and earnings growth over the next several years, albeit below broader market growth rates. Comcast faces a more constrained outlook, with relatively flat expected revenue and earnings performance. The valuation gap reflects both differing growth expectations and the capital intensity of maintaining and upgrading nationwide communications infrastructure.

Wall Street has amplified concerns about SpaceX’s competitive impact. Early research coverage has broadly characterized the launch, satellite-connectivity, and artificial-intelligence company as a disruptive force. The average analyst price target for SpaceX stock is approximately $227, implying a valuation near $3 trillion—roughly five times the combined market capitalization of AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile.

The major U.S. MNOs also operate with substantial debt burdens. AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile collectively carry approximately $420 billion in net debt, against about $140 billion in expected 2026 EBITDA. “I would not for a second sleep easily if I had the investments that [wireless telecom providers] have, and the debt that they have, and Elon Musk working on a superweapon as it pertains to my business,” says Drew Cupps of Polen Capital.

Nevertheless, Starlink faces significant capital, engineering, and deployment challenges before it can offer a broadly substitutable mobile service. Daiwa Capital Markets analyst Jonathan Kees argues that the investment required to build a V3-based Starlink constellation capable of materially disrupting terrestrial operators is underestimated. He estimates that constellation deployment could require more than $100 billion, excluding investment associated with SpaceX’s AI initiatives. Starlink is “only a complement, not a substitute” for existing wireless infrastructure, says Kees.

The fundamental constraint is spatial reuse and capacity density. A terrestrial cell site can concentrate spectrum resources over a coverage area measured in a few square miles, while a LEO satellite beam may serve a much broader footprint. Satellite systems therefore face more difficult link-budget, capacity, and spectral-efficiency challenges in dense urban environments, particularly for indoor service and high-traffic applications. V3 satellites may substantially improve system capacity, but they do not eliminate the capacity advantage of dense terrestrial RAN deployments.

For that reason, BofA Securities analyst Michael Funk does not view SpaceX as an immediate, large-scale competitive threat to incumbent MNOs. While some projections assign LEO-based mobile services 15% to 35% of the U.S. telecommunications market, Funk regards those estimates as overly optimistic. “Existing direct-to-device satellite technology [is] underdeveloped and largely complementary to terrestrial mobile networks,” Funk says. That assessment is consistent with Starlink’s present international model, which emphasizes partnerships with mobile operators rather than wholesale replacement of their networks.

Conclusions:

Starlink Mobile is an important strategic development in the evolution of NTN–terrestrial convergence. It should not, however, be evaluated as a satellite-only replacement for nationwide cellular networks.

LEO systems can provide broad-area reach, coverage extension, resilience, mobility, selected backhaul, and direct-to-device services. Dense terrestrial RAN infrastructure retains decisive advantages in spatial reuse, indoor coverage, spectrum utilization, and busy-hour capacity. Starlink’s most credible competitive impact in the near and medium term is therefore likely to occur in selected coverage, mobility, resilience, backhaul, and fixed-broadband segments—not through immediate replacement of nationwide terrestrial mobile networks.

The central uncertainty is which architecture and commercial model SpaceX will adopt. Its concurrent commitments to AI infrastructure, Starship, satellite replenishment, and spectrum assets may favor a hybrid or partnership-led approach over a fully independent nationwide MNO build.

In that outcome, incumbent operators’ spectrum, terrestrial RAN, fiber backhaul, tower infrastructure, customer relationships, and regulatory authorizations remain strategically important. Rather than becoming obsolete, those assets may increase in value as NTN and terrestrial networks become more tightly integrated.

If satellite and terrestrial systems become increasingly interdependent, incumbent operators’ assets may become more valuable rather than less. Spectrum, fiber backhaul, tower infrastructure, distributed RAN assets, customer relationships, billing systems, and regulatory authorizations remain essential elements of an integrated non-terrestrial network (NTN) and terrestrial-network ecosystem. EchoStar’s share-price appreciation over the past year illustrates the strategic value that spectrum holdings can command, particularly as SpaceX and AT&T acquire additional spectrum assets.

The three national U.S. wireless operators collectively hold spectrum assets estimated to be worth more than $400 billion based on recent transaction benchmarks. That figure is approximately 80% of their combined market capitalization and is broadly comparable to their aggregate debt burden. Spectrum holdings alone do not establish an investment thesis, but they provide a meaningful asset-value foundation as satellite, terrestrial, and hybrid connectivity models continue to evolve. They aren’t going to sell their spectrum. They have businesses to run, and those businesses are reasonably valued and growing.

Addendum: AI Capex is a Significant Risk for Starlink Mobile:

AI-data-center investment is a significant capital-allocation risk to Starlink Mobile, but it is not, by itself, evidence that SpaceX lacks the financial capacity to enter mobile communications. The more credible concern is that AI, Starship, constellation replenishment, and terrestrial mobile deployment will compete for capital simultaneously—potentially slowing Starlink Mobile’s rollout, limiting network densification, or increasing reliance on an MVNO partnership.

SpaceX’s capital spending has risen sharply: reported second-quarter capex exceeded $18 billion, including approximately $15.83 billion directed to AI infrastructure. Management indicated that similarly elevated capex could continue over subsequent quarters. Meanwhile, Starlink profitability and connectivity operations remain an important source of funding for the broader AI strategy.

A facilities-based mobile network would add another exceptionally capital-intensive program:

SpaceX has already committed approximately $19.6 billion through its EchoStar spectrum transactions for up to 65 MHz of spectrum, including associated debt obligations. Thus, the issue is not whether it can acquire any spectrum; it has already done so. The issue is whether that spectrum portfolio is sufficient for a competitive nationwide terrestrial-mobile network, particularly in high-density markets.reuters
A fourth nationwide MNO requires far more than spectrum: site acquisition, radios, antennas, power, backhaul, core-network functions, device certification, retail/distribution, customer care, and sustained subscriber-acquisition spending.
Starlink must also fund V3 satellite production, launch capacity, gateway infrastructure, constellation replenishment, and the evolution of direct-to-device/non-terrestrial-network capabilities.

These programs have distinctly different investment horizons. AI infrastructure requires rapid, front-loaded spending to secure compute capacity; terrestrial mobile networks require multi-year, geographically distributed capex; and satellite systems require continuous capital expenditure to maintain and upgrade orbital capacity.

The likely consequence is not cancellation of Starlink Mobile, but a more capital-disciplined architecture than a conventional nationwide greenfield MNO build. SpaceX has said it intends to build terrestrial mobile services but has not disclosed projected mobile capex or a site-count plan; analysts have warned that a competitive direct-to-consumer national offering would be very difficult without an MVNO agreement providing broad baseline coverage. This produces three plausible outcomes:

Path	Capital requirement	Likely implication
Independent nationwide MNO	Very high	Slow rollout, large execution risk, and a potentially prolonged cash drain while AI and Starship also consume capital
Hybrid satellite–terrestrial network	High but more targeted	Terrestrial build concentrated in capacity-constrained urban and suburban areas; Starlink provides backhaul, coverage extension, and resilience
MVNO or strategic MNO partnership	Lower upfront capex	Fastest route to nationwide service, but less control over margins, product design, and differentiation

Technical constraint remains decisive: Even if SpaceX could fully finance a terrestrial build, capital alone does not eliminate the fundamental network-engineering constraints. Its acquired spectrum is valuable, but incumbents have substantially deeper spectrum portfolios, dense existing cell-site grids, mature indoor-coverage solutions, established device ecosystems, and decades of operational experience.

Satellite connectivity can reduce backhaul requirements at selected sites and enhance rural, maritime, aviation, emergency, and resilience use cases. It cannot economically substitute for dense terrestrial spectral reuse in the highest-traffic urban areas. Therefore, AI-related capex pressure is particularly relevant because Starlink Mobile needs substantial investment precisely where the satellite component provides the least complete replacement for terrestrial infrastructure.

A key additional risk is strategic prioritization, not immediate insolvency. If SpaceX continues allocating the overwhelming share of incremental capital to AI data centers and Starship, Starlink Mobile may emerge as a hybrid service, wholesale platform, or MVNO-enabled offering rather than a fully independent fourth nationwide carrier. That outcome would reduce the near- to medium-term disruption risk to AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon. It would also reinforce the more technically credible view that Starlink is likely to be complementary to terrestrial mobile networks for years, even if it becomes a powerful competitor in selected coverage, backhaul, and mobility segments.

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References:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/spacex-wont-destroy-telecomit-will-just-reinvent-it-79b88d1a

https://www.lightreading.com/satellite/spacex-small-cell-plan-serves-up-more-musk-madness

FT: SpaceX considering Starlink Direct-to-Consumer mobile service & terrestrial cellular network infrastructure in the U.S. (See Comments below the article)

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Direct-to-Device (D2D) satellite network comparison: Starlink V2 (Starlink Mobile) vs “Satellite Connect Europe”

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Eutelsat hails EC’s IRIS-2 project to take on U.S. NTN providers

Posted on August 7, 2026 by Alan Weissberger

Executive Summary:

The European Commission (EC) has announced the next steps for the IRIS²[1.] project after reaching an implementation agreement with the prime contractors, one of which is Eutelsat. The EC agreed terms with the SpaceRISE consortium – comprising Eutelsat, Hispasat and SES – for deploying the satellite system, which includes adding 66 more low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites dedicated to defense, security and emergency services, and launching services from 2029.

Note 1. IRIS² Backgrounder:

IRIS² is the European Union’s secure-connectivity LEO satellite program: Infrastructure for Resilience, Interconnectivity and Security by Satellite. It is intended to provide sovereign, resilient communications for EU governmental users while also supporting commercial broadband and connectivity in underserved areas. IRIS² is planned as a multi-orbit constellation of 290 satellites, principally in low-Earth orbit (LEO) and medium-Earth orbit (MEO). Combining LEO’s lower latency with MEO’s wider coverage is meant to support secure, high-availability communications across Europe and beyond.

IRIS² was established under Regulation (EU) 2023/588, the Union Secure Connectivity Programme for 2023–2027. The Commission awarded a 12-year concession in December 2024 to the SpaceRISE consortium—SES, Eutelsat, and Hispasat—with major European aerospace, satellite, and telecom companies participating as subcontractors.

The current planning cited by ESA anticipates first satellite launches in 2029, initial services in 2030, and full operations targeted for 2031. In the interim, initial governmental capability is to draw on pooled national satellite resources through GOVSATCOM.

IRIS² is commonly described as the EU’s third flagship space program after Galileo and Copernicus. Its strategic rationale is European digital and communications sovereignty: reducing reliance on non-European satellite systems, improving resilience against cyber and physical disruptions, and sustaining a European space/telecom industrial base. It is not simply a European retail satellite-internet competitor to Starlink; secure governmental connectivity and strategic autonomy are central design objectives.

A good part of the motivation to build the IRIS²satellite system is to reduce reliance on U.S. satellites internet providers (e.g. Starlink, Amazon LEO), especially for sensitive military and government communications.

Principal uses of IRIS²include:

Secure communications for EU institutions, Member States, defence/security users, embassies, and critical infrastructure.
Crisis management, disaster/humanitarian response, border or surveillance-related applications.
Broadband, transport connectivity, satellite trunking, and service in terrestrial coverage gaps.
Integration with 5G/non-terrestrial-network technology; the Commission’s 2026 terminal-industrialization call explicitly includes 5G NR NTN-compliant modem/baseband capabilities.

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Eutelsat CEO Jean-François Fallacher said this is “a very important milestone” that moves the project on from design and preparation to an “operational phase” and confirms Eutelsat’s role as the program’s “LEO lead.” Fallacher shared a high-level view of some of the system’s new technology that is hoped to give it an advantage over larger U.S. rivals. He said the multi-orbit MEO-LEO constellation is “very advanced,” and will have “much more” capacity than satellite internet provider OneWeb has today.

He also confirmed it will be based on 5G non-terrestrial network (NTN) standards, which is “important.”

“We use 5G NTN technology. For IRIS², we want to normalize the technology … This is also a way to fight against the American giants because today each of the technology used by ourselves on OneWeb (now owned by Eutelsat), by Amazon or by Starlink are full proprietary technologies,” he said. “Going to normalized technologies such as 5G NTN will also help [in] bringing the cost down [and] having antennas which will be cheaper and of a smaller size.”

Eutelsat, which also operates 31 geostationary orbit (GEO) satellites, gained its LEO constellation with the acquisition of OneWeb in 2023. It is a distant second LEO operator with around 650 satellites, compared to Starlink’s more than 10,000. They both operate LEO constellations, but Eutelsat has a “fundamentally different constellation with different target customers, business models and scale.” LEO connectivity accounted for 25% of Eutelsat’s total revenue of €1.23 billion (US$1.41 billion) for the fiscal year ending June 30, and LEO revenue grew 70% year-over-year.

Photo Credit: HJBC/Alamy Stock Photo

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For IRIS², Eutelsat will design and operate 264 dual Mil-Ka/Ku band and 66 Mil-Ka band satellites. The company said it will invest €2.23 billion ($2.57 billion) in the shared infrastructure and €1.16 billion ($1.34 billion) in the commercial infrastructure (which includes Ku payload and commercial ground equipment), with spending phased from 2027 to 2034. According to its concession agreement with the EC, the company said it expects revenue from IRIS²activity to be more than €10 billion ($11.6 billion) from 2032 to 2040. The Ka-only satellites are planned to start launching in 2029, while the commercial Ku LEO system is expected to be operational by mid-2032. Eutelsat also said it plans to add 229 satellites to OneWeb through 2034 in addition to 440 new first-generation satellites for an investment of €1 billion ($1.2 billion).

IRIS² links EU spectrum policy to sovereign satellite connectivity:

The EC’s proposed allocation of the 2 GHz mobile-satellite-services band complements IRIS², the EU’s secure-connectivity program. One-third of the spectrum would be assigned to a European operator providing governmental services—security, critical communications, and defense—with a requirement to integrate with present and future IRIS² capabilities. Together, the initiatives seek to strengthen Europe-controlled satellite infrastructure and reduce reliance on non-European systems.

IRIS² is designed primarily for secure governmental connectivity, including defense, crisis response, civil protection, and critical-infrastructure users. The SpaceRISE concession—led by Eutelsat, SES, and Hispasat—also permits commercial use of shared infrastructure. The planned multi-orbit architecture combines LEO and MEO satellites to provide resilience, coverage, and broadband capacity.

3GPP 5G NR-NTN alignment:

IRIS² is intended to use 3GPP 5G NR non-terrestrial-network (NTN) technology in the space, ground, and user-terminal segments. At the March 2025 3GPP RAN#107 plenary, industry participants described IRIS² as a multi-orbit Ku-/Ka-band broadband constellation adopting 5G NR-NTN specifications; the expected benefits are interoperability with terrestrial mobile networks, multi-vendor terminal support, and a broader equipment ecosystem.

The relevant 3GPP baseline NTN specs include:

Release 17 NR-NTN, which introduced foundational 5G NR satellite support, including architecture and radio adaptations for long propagation delay, Doppler shift, satellite ephemeris/UE location assistance, timing advance, and HARQ operation. The principal study and solutions specifications are 3GPP TR 38.811 and TR 38.821.
3GPP TS 38.300, the NR overall-description specification, which defines NTN architectural support; TS 38.331, which specifies RRC signaling needed for NTN-related configuration and assistance information.
3GPP TS 38.101-5, which defines NR user-equipment RF requirements for satellite/NTN operation. For Ka-band VSAT-type terminals, this includes NTN bands such as n510, n511, and n512, with downlink spectrum in the 17.7–20.2 GHz range and uplink spectrum extending into the 27.5–30 GHz range, depending on band.
Release 18 5G-Advanced NTN enhancements, including further NR-NTN performance and mobility enhancements, as well as expanded satellite spectrum support. Release 18 added NTN band n254 alongside the Release 17 n255 and n256 L-/S-band options.

3GPP Release 19 gives IRIS² a more capable 5G-Advanced NTN standards baseline, but it does not redefine the programme’s core sovereign-connectivity mission or its already-selected multi-orbit architecture. Its practical role is to enable a more interoperable evolution of IRIS² user terminals, gateways, and potentially onboard processing as the constellation is deployed from 2029 onward. Release 19 was frozen in 2026, making it a stable implementation target rather than only a work-in-progress specification.

For IRIS², the most relevant Release 19 NTN enhancements are:

Regenerative-payload support. Release 19 supports an NTN architecture in which a complete 5G gNB may be hosted onboard a satellite, rather than using only a transparent bent-pipe payload. This can reduce dependence on feeder-link and gateway availability, improve latency for certain paths, and enable more flexible routing and service continuity—important attributes for resilient governmental communications.
NR-NTN Phase 3 enhancements. These build on the Release 17 and 18 foundations for NR satellite access, addressing NTN mobility, access, capacity, and performance issues associated with high Doppler, long propagation delay, and fast-moving LEO satellites.
GNSS-independent operation and positioning. Release 19 work includes support for UE access when GNSS is unavailable, as well as positioning enhancements for satellite-only access. Those capabilities have clear relevance for emergency, defence, and resilience use cases where GNSS availability may be degraded, denied, or unreliable.
Enhanced IoT NTN. Release 19 adds store-and-forward operation, IoT-NTN TDD capability, public-warning support, and uplink-capacity improvements. These can support lower-power, delay-tolerant sensing and asset-monitoring applications across critical infrastructure, transport, energy, and remote areas.
Additional NTN spectrum support. Release 19 expands the 3GPP NR-NTN band portfolio, including Ku-band-related work and additional S- and L-band options. This is relevant to the evolution of IRIS² terminals and complementary mobile-satellite services, although the IRIS² broadband layers principally use Ku and military Ka-band spectrum.

IRIS² can use Release 19 to move beyond basic satellite backhaul or proprietary broadband toward a standards-based 5G NTN platform with greater integration into terrestrial 5G networks. Standardization should support multi-vendor terminals, common modem and protocol ecosystems, roaming/interworking possibilities, and a less proprietary ground-segment architecture.

IRIS² has publicly committed to adoption of the 3GPP 5G NR-NTN specification family, but the precise release profile and the definitive set of normative TS requirements for each satellite, gateway, and terminal have not yet been publicly detailed. It would therefore be more accurate to describe the programme as 3GPP 5G NR-NTN-aligned than to assert blanket compliance with every specification or band.

Competitive and regulatory context:

The initiative has drawn U.S. regulatory attention. FCC Chairman Brendan Carr suggested that European restrictions on U.S. satellite operators could invite reciprocal treatment in the United States, while SpaceX has reportedly asked the FCC to examine Eutelsat’s planned constellation expansion.

Luke Pearce of FDM CCS Insight said that Starlink’s use in Ukraine illustrates why the EU seeks a non-U.S.-dependent secure-connectivity capability:

“Ukraine’s use of Starlink on the front line has highlighted how important satellite communications will be in future warfare. The EU is understandably keen not to be reliant on its US partners for this capability.”

Pearce doubts the project can catch up to Starlink, or even Amazon’s planned rollout. IRIS²has been “marred by significant uncertainty and scrutiny” since it was announced in November 2022, and “at times, the project has appeared destined to fail,” he said. Initial services were supposed to launch in 2024. Now, the full system is likely to arrive in 2030 or later, he explained.

“It is therefore materially behind Starlink and will almost certainly remain so. By the time IRIS² is operational, SpaceX will have moved through further generations of satellites, terminals and services. Amazon Leo will also be a much more established competitor. Using standardized technology should broaden the equipment ecosystem, improve interoperability with terrestrial networks and ultimately bring costs down. However, 5G NTN is not a silver bullet. Standardization alone will not overcome the US’s enormous lead in satellite manufacturing, launch capabilities, terminals and overall scale,” said Pearce.

Conclusions:

IRIS² is materially behind Starlink in deployed constellation scale, launch capacity, terminals, and service maturity. Standardized 5G NR-NTN can improve interoperability and reduce ecosystem fragmentation, but it cannot independently offset those scale advantages. IRIS² should therefore be assessed chiefly as a European sovereign-connectivity and resilience program, rather than as a like-for-like retail broadband challenger to Starlink or Amazon Leo.

3GPP Release 19 provides an important 5G-Advanced NTN evolution path for IRIS². In addition to Release 17/18 NR-NTN baseline capabilities, Release 19 introduces support for regenerative satellite payloads, enhanced LEO mobility and access procedures, GNSS-independent operation, improved positioning, and expanded IoT-NTN functions including store-and-forward delivery. These features could improve the resilience, interoperability, and terrestrial-network integration of later IRIS² system increments.

The applicable ITU-R NTN satellite Recommendation is currently ITU-R M.2177-0 (February 2026), Detailed specifications of the satellite radio interfaces of IMT-2020. It identifies the “3GPP 5G-NTN: RIT” and “3GPP 5G-NTN: SRIT” as the IMT-2020 satellite radio interfaces. The Recommendation explicitly covers NR-NTN and IoT-NTN and points to 3GPP global core specifications rather than reproducing the full 3GPP technical corpus.

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References:

https://www.lightreading.com/satellite/eutelsat-hails-5g-ntn-to-take-on-american-giants

EU spectrum proposal

PCMag report

FCC Chairman Carr’s post

European Consortium 5G NTN transmission paves the way for standards based direct to device (D2D) connectivity

Non-Terrestrial Networks (NTN) Tutorial: Architecture, Spectrum, and Technical Foundations

Non-Terrestrial Networks (NTNs): market, specifications & standards in 3GPP and ITU-R

ITU-R recommendation IMT-2020-SAT.SPECS from ITU-R WP 4B to be based on 3GPP 5G NR-NTN and IoT-NTN (from Release 17 & 18)

From LPWAN to Hybrid Networks: Satellite and NTN as Enablers of Enterprise IoT – Part 2

Telecoms.com’s survey: 5G NTNs to highlight service reliability and network redundancy

InterSAT extends Pan-African satellite services via Ku-band on Eutelsat 70B satellite

Orange France satellite Internet based on Eutelsat Konnect VHTS satellite

France’s Eutelsat nears deal to buy UK satellite internet company OneWeb

Analysis & Opinion: SpaceX to build, lease or buy a hybrid/terrestrial satellite network?

Posted on August 1, 2026 by Alan Weissberger

Should SpaceX’s Starlink build, lease/rent or buy a hybrid terrestrial/satellite mobile network or perhaps do it through a mix of these alternatives. Several industry watchers see an MVNO deal as the most likely path (we agree- see Analysis & Opinion below). That way SpaceX/Starlink can deliver reliable service indoors and out because it will have access to necessary low band and mid band spectrum, plus access to its own direct-to-device (D2D) service to cover areas out of reach of the terrestrial cellular network. Some analysts suggest that SpaceX might try to exchange some of its spectrum for an MVNO agreement, or perhaps come up with some other means to achieve that goal.

“Starlink is playing the long game. It will continue to negotiate, cajole, and, if necessary, coerce, in an effort to secure an MVNO agreement with one of the Big Three,” MoffettNathanson analyst Craig Moffett said in a recent report (subscribers only) that sized up SpaceX’s options. “It is clear, however, that the Big Three (AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile) fully understand the clear and present danger that would be posed by Starlink’s market entry as another Cable-like hybrid MNO/MVNO.”

Image Credit: Stephen Searle/Alamy Stock Photos

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A recent a Semafor report suggests the build and buy options are both being consdiered at SpaceX, kicking it off with a lead proclaiming that “Elon Musk is coming for your cell phone networks.” The report said SpaceX is seeking spectrum that can deliver service in “cities and dense areas,” and is exploring some options to get there that include acquiring companies that already own spectrum or obtaining spectrum at auction.

“In the most recent sign that Musk’s Starlink plans to compete directly with AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile. Musk’s SpaceX has taken other steps into the conventional telecommunications business. President Gwynne Shotwell demonstrated a prototype mobile handset to some investors earlier this year, the Wall Street Journal reported. The Financial Times also reported that Shotwell had expressed interest in building their own terrestrial networks.”

“SpaceX wants to grow its Starlink mobile business, which analysts expect to hit $15 billion in revenue this year and which SpaceX, in its IPO pitch to investors, pegged at a $740 billion market. SpaceX is working on new technologies to improve Starlink’s coverage in tree-covered areas and inside buildings, and Musk has also said he’s considered building a hybrid satellite-terrestrial network to bolster the service.”

Elon Musk has kept the door open for SpaceX to attempt a takeover of an MNO in the future. Whether any would be willing to sell is a completely different discussion.

Roger Entner, analyst and founder at Recon Analytics, suggested that SpaceX’s fight over the upper C-band buildout rules indicates that it’s not shopping to acquire a wireless carrier. He said it shows that SpaceX “is a company that means to win spectrum at auction and build a satellite and terrestrial hybrid network on it from the ground up, the same way it built its own dish and its own router rather than buying either off a shelf.”
“The key thing to look at is where SpaceX can exert pressure on the MNOs at minimal cost to itself. I expect we’ll see more rumors of a Starlink phone & cable partnership. Perhaps even a CBRS purchase from EchoStar. But strict buildout timetable now makes upper C-band unappealing,” Tim Farrar, principal at TMF Associates, explained on X.

The Semafor report notes that SpaceX’s plans are fluid, and the company could ultimately choose not to follow through. Building a network is capital intensive, requiring continuous, steady investment in both towers and spectrum —- drawing capital away from businesses that investors more richly reward, chiefly AI.

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Analysis and Opinion (aided by Perplexity.ai):

SpaceX is most likely to buy spectrum and selectively acquire/lease assets, rather then build a lean, satellite‑centric terrestrial layer — not buy a legacy carrier, and not build a Dish‑scale greenfield MNO.

This is a hybrid “buy‑then‑build” playbook: buy the airwaves (and maybe some small operators or tower portfolios) to secure optionality, then build only the terrestrial pieces that are economically justified, letting Starlink Direct‑to‑Device do the heavy lifting for coverage.

Why a pure “build” MNO is unlikely:

Capital allocation: SpaceX’s 2025 capex was already dominated by AI (~$18B in AI spend, with total near‑term IG funding needs around $300B before FCF turns positive). A full terrestrial MNO build would compete directly with that priority.
Strategic fit: SpaceX’s historical pattern is to design and build its own infrastructure, but only where it unlocks a new market or margin (rockets, satellites, user terminals). A retail MNO with dense tower grids and low ARPU is a different beast.
Regulatory reality: FCC rules for the EchoStar spectrum impose strict buildout and performance obligations, but they also allow blending space and ground infrastructure—exactly what a satellite‑first hybrid needs.

Why a pure “buy a carrier” is also unlikely:

No willing seller at the right price: Major carriers have rejected MVNO/wholesale overtures, and buying AT&T/T‑Mobile/Verizon is not realistic.
Asset mismatch: Legacy carriers come with large, costly tower grids and cost bases that a satellite‑terrestrial hybrid is designed to minimize.

The middle path: buy spectrum, build sparingly:

Evidence points to this as SpaceX’s actual strategy:

Spectrum first: The $17B EchoStar deal (AWS‑4, H‑Block, unpaired AWS‑3) gives SpaceX ~65 MHz of nationwide, exclusive, contiguous midband spectrum explicitly for direct‑to‑cell and hybrid services.
Auction strategy: SpaceX is expected to bid aggressively in the upcoming upper C‑band auction (3.98–4.14 GHz, 160 MHz) to secure urban capacity for a full‑service mobile offering.
Terrestrial as a complement: In dense areas, smartphones would connect to terrestrial base stations SpaceX plans to deploy; outside those zones, devices would switch to Starlink Direct‑to‑Cell. This keeps tower counts and capex manageable.
Selective M&A: Rather than buying a Big Three carrier, SpaceX is more likely to acquire spectrum‑rich smaller operators or lease/buy tower capacity where it accelerates coverage without a full build.

Bottom line:

SpaceX will almost certainly enter the U.S. mobile market as a hybrid operator, but the most capital‑efficient and strategically consistent route is:

Buy: spectrum (EchoStar + auctions) and possibly small, targeted assets.
Build: a lean terrestrial layer only where density and economics justify it, relying on satellites for the rest.

This balances a valid concern about AI’s capital pull with SpaceX’s clear intent to control the customer relationship and avoid being just a wholesale satellite internet operator.

References:

https://www.lightreading.com/5g/spacex-might-build-and-buy-its-way-to-a-terrestrial-wireless-network-report

https://www.semafor.com/article/07/29/2026/spacex-looks-to-compete-with-the-carriers

FT: SpaceX considering Starlink Direct-to-Consumer mobile service & terrestrial cellular network infrastructure in the U.S.

Elon Musk: Starlink could become a global mobile carrier; 2 year timeframe for new smartphones

US Mobile’s new bundle combines its multi-network mobile service with Starlink residential internet

Direct-to-Device (D2D) satellite network comparison: Starlink V2 (Starlink Mobile) vs “Satellite Connect Europe”

U.S. BEAD overhaul to benefit Starlink/SpaceX at the expense of fiber broadband providers

FT: SpaceX considering Starlink Direct-to-Consumer mobile service & terrestrial cellular network infrastructure in the U.S.

Posted on June 27, 2026 by Alan Weissberger

According to the Financial Times (FT), SpaceX is evaluating a strategic expansion of its Starlink satellite Internet service to include a direct-to-consumer mobile service in the United States, a move that could materially disrupt the established U.S. mobile network market. According to sources familiar with recent IPO roadshow discussions, President and COO Gwynne Shotwell indicated that the company is considering both a retail Starlink mobile offering and the potential development of a terrestrial cellular network infrastructure.

Such a shift would represent a transition from SpaceX’s current wholesale and partnership-driven model—where Starlink satellite capacity is integrated with incumbent MNO networks—to a vertically integrated retail service directly competing with Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile. To date, Starlink’s U.S. mobility strategy has primarily relied on enabling partner operators, notably T-Mobile, to extend coverage in underserved and rural areas via satellite augmentation.

Although commercial terms remain undisclosed, industry analysts infer that Starlink currently participates in revenue-sharing arrangements tied to satellite-enabled service tiers. A direct retail model would enable SpaceX to capture a larger share of end-user revenue while reducing dependence on intermediary operators.

Here are some details, as reported by Reuters:

SpaceX already offers direct-to-cell connectivity with T-Mobile in the U.S., providing supplemental coverage from space to extend internet ⁠access to remote areas. [1.]
SpaceX is now considering launching a Starlink retail product and could build its own terrestrial U.S. mobile network, President Gwynne Shotwell told investors during a recent IPO roadshow, the FT report said, citing sources.
Reuters could not immediately verify the report. SpaceX did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment outside regular business hours.
In September ‌last ⁠year, SpaceX bought wireless spectrum licenses from EchoStar for its Starlink satellite network for about $17 billion and then again for $2.6 billion in November, giving it the ability to quickly create a strong and ⁠affordable direct-to-cell service by using EchoStar’s wireless airwaves.
SpaceX will disrupt the $1.6 trillion U.S. communications industry as its satellite broadband unit Starlink expands, brokerage ⁠firm Oppenheimer said in a note earlier this month.
SpaceX’s record valuation is grounded in Starlink, which has over 10 ⁠million subscribers, and a launch business that analysts and investors say has transformed access to orbit.

Note 1. T-Mobile US D2D service has lower than expected usage:

During T-Mobile US’s recent earnings call, CEO Srini Gopalan admitted that just under a year after its commercial launch, T-Satellite is experiencing lower-than-predicted usage. However, he put a very positive spin on the situation, insisting that the technology is doing exactly what it was designed for.

“Our partnership with SpaceX is very strong. We’ve worked closely with them to really invent an entire category, and that’s been putting an end to dead zones. We’re pleased with that,” Gopalan said.

“Most of the usage we’re seeing is in national parks and if anything, courtesy of the great network Dr Saw has built, we’re seeing a lot less usage than we were originally thinking,” he admitted, referring to Chief Technology Officer John Saw. “But it’s a great complementary product.”

SpaceX Satellite Launch using Falcon 9 Rocket. Image Credit: Space C enter Houston

This potential expansion follows SpaceX’s recent IPO, which has intensified investor expectations for accelerated revenue growth and diversification. Starlink already operates in more than 150 countries, delivering broadband services via LEO satellite constellations, with approximately 10.3 million global subscribers as of March. A U.S. mobile retail offering would significantly expand its addressable market beyond fixed satellite broadband.

Importantly, SpaceX has not publicly confirmed plans to launch a retail mobile service. However, speculation has increased following its $17 billion acquisition of wireless spectrum licenses from EchoStar in September, widely interpreted as a foundational step toward mobility services. In its bond prospectus, the company noted that while Starlink Mobile is currently expected “to be most impactful for customers in remote areas uncovered by terrestrial mobile networks,” its long-term positioning is more expansive, stating it would “compete to be the preferred connectivity experience to our customers no matter where they are located, whether in rural, suburban or urban areas.”

Despite the strategic rationale, significant technical and economic barriers remain. U.S. MNOs collectively control approximately 1,020 MHz of spectrum, compared to SpaceX’s estimated 65 MHz, according to New Street Research. This disparity highlights the challenges associated with scaling a competitive terrestrial mobile network, particularly in spectrum-constrained and highly saturated markets.

David Barden of New Street Research emphasized the difficulty of such an undertaking, noting that building a “wireless network in saturated markets around the world would be incredibly hard.” However, he added that “[But,] as a starting point for negotiating the best possible revenue-sharing deal with mobile network operator partners? It makes tremendous sense.”

Conclusions:

While a Starlink retail mobile service offering could redefine the company’s role in the telecom value chain, near-term implementation would likely require a hybrid model leveraging both satellite and terrestrial assets, alongside continued strategic partnerships with incumbent operators.

The most useful follow-on question is whether “terrestrial cellular network infrastructure” means acquiring spectrum, building or buying towers, or simply partnering for access and backhaul. If it means an owned network, the economics look very different from satellite direct-to-device: capital spend rises, time-to-scale slows, and the business starts competing head-on with Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile instead of complementing them. If it means a hybrid model, then the more plausible path is a bundled satellite-plus-terrestrial offering targeted at coverage gaps, mobility, and emergency connectivity rather than a nationwide full replacement.

The strategic significance of the FT report is not simply another Starlink service tier, but a possible shift from supplemental coverage provider to vertically integrated U.S. mobile operator, with major implications for spectrum policy, carrier competition, and infrastructure investment.

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References:

https://www.ft.com/content/42af0f15-3aa9-49b7-b429-4a39540af03e?syn-25a6b1a6=1 (paywall)

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/musks-spacex-targets-us-consumers-with-starlink-mobile-service-push-ft-reports-2026-06-26/ (paywall)

Ookla: Starlink a viable competitor for hybrid 5G/NTN services due to network performance improvements and larger coverage area

Ookla: D2D satellite connectivity surged 24.5% during last 9 months; Starlink’s footprint expansion leads the way

US Mobile’s new bundle combines its multi-network mobile service with Starlink residential internet

Tutorial: LEO Satellite Internet connectivity, D2D, and major providers

Direct-to-Device (D2D) satellite network comparison: Starlink V2 (Starlink Mobile) vs “Satellite Connect Europe”

Starlink doubles subscriber base; expands to to 42 new countries, territories & markets

Elon Musk: Starlink could become a global mobile carrier; 2 year timeframe for new smartphones

GEO satellite internet from HughesNet and Viasat can’t compete with LEO Starlink in speed or latency

U.S. BEAD overhaul to benefit Starlink/SpaceX at the expense of fiber broadband providers

Telstra selects SpaceX’s Starlink to bring Satellite-to-Mobile text messaging to its customers in Australia

SpaceX launches first set of Starlink satellites with direct-to-cell capabilities

Blue Origin announces TeraWave – satellite internet rival for Starlink and Amazon Leo

Tutorial: LEO Satellite Internet connectivity, D2D, and major providers

Posted on May 24, 2026 by Alan Weissberger

Satellite Orbits:

Satellite connectivity operates across three orbital tiers:

Geostationary (GEO) satellites have been the dominant platform for decades, powering telecommunications, TV broadcasting, weather forecasting, military surveillance, rural internet, and satellite phones. Positioned 36,000 kilometres above the equator, a single GEO satellite covers nearly a third of the planet, but the distance creates a 500–700 millisecond signal delay that makes video calls and real-time services impractical. Each satellite is roughly the size of a school bus and requires its own rocket launch.
Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) satellites sit between 2,000 and 36,000 kilometres above Earth’s surface, with a latency of 70–120 milliseconds. The satellites range from car-sized to van-sized, with a few deployable per launch. MEO satellites are used for GPS and other global navigation systems but have never played a significant role in consumer connectivity.
Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites sit at just 300 to 2,000 kilometres above Earth’s surface, bringing latency down to 20–50 milliseconds — on par with home broadband. Their small, flat-panel design, roughly the size of a dining table, allows dozens to be stacked into a single rocket, significantly lowering the cost per satellite. Modern LEO constellations also link satellites directly via laser, forming a mesh network in space. Instead of every signal bouncing through a fixed ground gateway, data travels between satellites and descends at the nearest point, allowing LEO signals to reach oceans, disaster zones, and remote communities that no ground infrastructure will ever serve.

LEO satellites sit between 300 and 2,000 kilometres above Earth, completing an orbit every 90 to 120 minutes and covering different parts of the globe as they move. They communicate with ground stations or through inter-satellite links that relay data between satellites. Supporting infrastructure includes gateway stations, network operation centers, and data centers that manage satellite movements, route traffic, and maintain service reliability. For users, accessing LEO services requires a small satellite terminal — typically a dish — with power and a subscription plan. As shown in the figure below, users connect to a local Wi-Fi network linked to the dish. Data is transmitted to LEO satellites, relayed to a ground station, and then routed through fiber-optic networks to data centers or cloud platforms. The process is reversed for the return signal, completing the connection in milliseconds.

Importantly, LEO satellites are revolutionizing Direct-to-Device (D2D) communications by acting as cell towers in space, allowing standard, unmodified smartphones and IoT sensors to connect seamlessly without terrestrial infrastructure. By utilizing standard mobile-carrier spectrums or dedicated satellite bands, these fast-moving satellites bypass localized coverage gaps to provide ubiquitous, text, voice, and data services in remote, rural, and maritime areas, as well as critical backup during disasters.

LEO satellite internet functional block diagram:

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Regulatory approval is central to LEO satellite deployment. Providers must typically obtain spectrum licenses, comply with national rules for ground infrastructure, and secure approval for service provision. Requirements vary widely across jurisdictions — from registration to multi-stage authorization processes. Competition from incumbent internet service providers may constrain market entry and expansion. As a result, services may be restricted or delayed even where technical coverage exists.

LEO connectivity also has practical limitations. Terminals require an unobstructed view of the sky, making installation easier in open areas but more difficult in dense urban environments where buildings or trees block the signal. Tropical downpours, heavy rain, or storms can cause signal attenuation and reduce throughput. Compared with terrestrial systems such as fibre-optic or mobile networks, LEO services may deliver less consistent performance, particularly in urban areas, and speeds can drop during peak demand.

Providers of LEO satellite connectivity:

Company	Country of origin	Geographic focus	Target market	Notes
Starlink — SpaceX	United States	Global	Individual/residential, enterprises, maritime and aviation, telecommunications, defense, government	Largest LEO satellite network, with 9,000+ operational satellites as of January 2026, a number that continues to grow.
Amazon Leo (formerly Project Kuiper)	United States	Global	Individual/residential, enterprises, maritime and aviation, telecommunications, defense, government	Roll-out to customers begins this year. Integration with Amazon’s existing infrastructure could offer advantages for e-commerce and cloud computing services.
OneWeb — Eutelsat	France	Global	Enterprises, maritime and aviation, telecommunications, defense, government	Wholesale partnerships, with a focus on enterprise and government, and a constellation of 600+ satellites.
Telesat — Lightspeed	Canada	Asia, Australia, North America	Enterprises, maritime and aviation, telecommunications, defense, government	Mid-scale operator, designed specifically for enterprise-grade and government connectivity.
Sat.One	Australia	Australia, New Zealand	Communities, enterprises, maritime and aviation, telecommunications, defense, government	Operates as a service integrator, leveraging OneWeb’s LEO satellite network.
GuoWang	China	Asia-Pacific region	Individual/residential, enterprises, maritime and aviation, telecommunications, defense, government	Both focus on supporting China’s government communications, underserved areas in China, and regional broadband. While global expansion is emerging, concerns around data governance, privacy, and geopolitical risk may limit international adoption. GuoWang is targeting 13,000 satellites; Qianfan is planning 15,000 satellites.
Qianfan (Spacesail)	China	Asia, Africa, Latin America	Individual/residential, enterprises, maritime and aviation, telecommunications, defense, government

The global space economy is projected to reach US$1.8 trillion by 2035, driven largely by LEO constellations. However, value creation is likely to be concentrated among a small number of providers controlling key parts of the value chain, Financial barriers to entry remain significant, varying depending on mission scope and technical ambition. Amazon Leo (formerly Project Kuiper) will cost more than US$10 billion, while full deployment of SpaceX’s Starlink is estimated at US $20–30 billion.

A mix of private and state-backed operators is developing LEO constellations with different strategies in satellite numbers, coverage, and target markets. Chinese-backed LEO operators GuoWang and Qianfan represent a strategic shift, both advancing rapidly towards full operation with a dual mandate of serving domestic communications and extending broadband connectivity across the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Their emergence could reshape strategic choices for governments in the region.

Where LEO satellite delivers:

LEO satellites are not a universal solution to connectivity gaps, nor a replacement for terrestrial networks. In most countries, fibre-optic and mobile infrastructure will remain the primary source of broadband connectivity. Their value lies in specific contexts: serving remote communities beyond the economic reach of terrestrial investment; providing resilient backup when ground networks fail; and supporting connectivity where no viable alternative exists.

LEO satellites are increasingly used to enhance resilience in countries with extensive fiber-optic networks or high exposure to natural disasters. They can provide automatic failover — near instantaneous transition to a standby system — during submarine cable outages, power failures, or other disruptions, maintaining communications and supporting emergency response. In December 2024, earthquakes in Vanuatu disrupted contact with national disaster authorities until Starlink was activated. In April 2025, a blackout in Spain and Portugal cut power to thousands of mobile towers, halving terrestrial network capacity — Starlink maintained connectivity via ground stations in Italy.

The main advantage is network independence: LEO satellites operate separately from terrestrial infrastructure and continue functioning when ground systems fail. Integrating LEO satellites into national disaster frameworks, rather than relying on ad hoc deployment, would maximize resilience.

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References:

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/low-earth-orbit-satellites-closing-indo-pacific-digital-divide

https://www.telecoms.com/satellite/satellite-disruption-how-leo-and-d2d-are-impacting-telecoms

Analyst firms wide forecasts for the LEO satellite direct-to-device (D2D) market

Analysis: SpaceX FCC filing to launch up to 1M LEO satellites for solar powered AI data centers in space

Blue Origin announces TeraWave – satellite internet rival for Starlink and Amazon Leo

Open Cosmos introduces global space-based LEO satellite service for IoT monitoring

China ITU filing to put ~200K satellites in low earth orbit while FCC authorizes 7.5K additional Starlink LEO satellites

Amazon Leo (formerly Project Kuiper) unveils satellite broadband for enterprises; Competitive analysis with Starlink

GEO satellite internet from HughesNet and Viasat can’t compete with LEO Starlink in speed or latency

Ookla: Starlink a viable competitor for hybrid 5G/NTN services due to network performance improvements and larger coverage area

Posted on May 5, 2026 by Alan Weissberger

SpaceX’s Starlink low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation providing high speed internet service is increasingly positioning itself as a scalable broadband access platform within the global telecom ecosystem. It now has growing relevance for both retail and enterprise connectivity use cases.

Network performance improvements (see below) have occurred alongside substantial subscriber growth. Starlink’s global user base expanded from approximately 4.6 million at the end of 2024 to over 10 million by early 2026, underscoring the LEO satellite platform’s ability to scale capacity while maintaining service quality.

This evolution is exemplified by T-Mobile’s “SuperBroadband” offering, which integrates 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) with Starlink satellite connectivity to deliver hybrid terrestrial–non-terrestrial network (NTN) solutions for business customers. The viability of such architectures is directly dependent on sustained improvements in satellite network throughput, latency, and service consistency.

Ookla Speedtest® data for the second half of 2025 indicates significant year-over-year improvements in Starlink’s performance across key network metrics. Median download speeds exceeded 100 Mbps in 49 states, compared to 23 states in 2H 2024, reflecting both increased system capacity and improved spectral efficiency. Performance gains were also observed across the lower quartile of users: 25th percentile download speeds improved in 48 states, with the number of states below 50 Mbps declining from eleven to two (Alaska and Florida). This shift indicates not only higher peak throughput but also improved quality of experience (QoE) consistency across the subscriber base.

Latency performance has also trended positively, driven by both constellation densification and architectural enhancements. While Starlink continues to target ~20 ms median latency, the number of states with median multi-server latency below 40 ms increased from one to ten between 2H 2024 and 1H 2025. By 2H 2025, top-performing regions—including New Jersey, Colorado, Arizona, and Washington, D.C.—achieved median latencies of approximately 37 ms, approaching parity with certain terrestrial broadband deployments and enabling latency-sensitive applications.

There has been a rapid expansion of the Starlink constellation and ongoing satellite technology upgrades. As of February 2026, the constellation exceeded 10,000 satellites in orbit, materially increasing aggregate network capacity and reducing cell congestion through greater spatial reuse. The deployment of Generation 3 (V3) satellites—featuring an order-of-magnitude increase (~10×) in downlink capacity relative to prior generations—has further enhanced throughput. Concurrently, upgrades to inter-satellite laser links have enabled more efficient space-based routing, reducing dependency on terrestrial gateway infrastructure, minimizing bottlenecks, and improving end-to-end latency performance.

Notably, these network enhancements have coincided with rapid subscriber growth. Starlink’s global user base expanded from approximately 4.6 million at year-end 2024 to over 10 million by early 2026, demonstrating the platform’s ability to scale capacity in line with demand while maintaining or improving key performance indicators.

Uplink performance has also improved materially, with 22 states achieving median upload speeds ≥20 Mbps in 2H 2025, compared to zero states in the prior-year period. This threshold is aligned with the FCC’s current broadband definition, underscoring Starlink’s increasing capability to meet regulatory benchmarks for two-way broadband services. Nebraska, New Jersey, and Minnesota recorded the largest gains, with Nebraska leading overall at 24.94 Mbps median upload throughput.

However, performance gains remain uneven across certain geographies. States including Connecticut, Hawaii, and New Hampshire exhibited relatively modest uplink improvements, suggesting localized constraints related to capacity allocation, gateway distribution, or demand density. These variances highlight the continued importance of targeted constellation scaling and ground segment optimization to ensure uniform service quality.

In Q4, 44.7% of Starlink’s user base achieved the FCC’s 100/20 Mbps broadband benchmark, signaling the provider’s transition from a niche rural solution to a high-performance market disruptor. By scaling its LEO constellation to over 10,000 nodes and deploying higher-throughput payloads, Starlink has successfully optimized spectral efficiency and reduced latency, maintaining QoS even as its global subscriber base scaled to 10 million.

While the U.S. remains Starlink’s primary market, the competitive landscape is shifting. Amazon’s Project Kuiper faces significant deployment headwinds; despite an FCC mandate to orbit 1,618 satellites by July 2026, the company has only deployed roughly 240 units and has petitioned for a two-year extension due to launch capacity constraints. This market penetration places legacy GEO operators like Hughesnet and Viasat at a strategic disadvantage. Although these incumbents are leveraging aggressive pricing and CPE (Customer Premises Equipment) refreshes to stem churn, the inherent latency limitations of GEO architecture continue to pose a significant structural barrier to competing with LEO-based performance.

Overall, the data indicates that Starlink is transitioning from a niche rural broadband solution toward a more robust, high-capacity access network capable of supporting hybrid 5G/NTN architectures and enterprise-grade connectivity services.

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Addendum – LEO vs GEO satellite internet:

The technical architectures of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) systems are fundamentally defined by their orbital altitude, which dictates their latency, link budget, and network complexity.

Orbital Mechanics and Altitude:
- GEO satellites reside at a fixed altitude of approximately 35,786 km. They orbit at the same speed as the Earth’s rotation, appearing stationary from the ground, which allows for simple, fixed-point antenna installations.
- LEO satellites operate at significantly lower altitudes, typically between 160 km and 2,000 km. Because they are closer to Earth, they must travel at much higher velocities (approx. 28,000 km/h) to maintain orbit, completing a full revolution in about 90–128 minutes.
Latency and Propagation Delay:
- GEO: The extreme distance results in a high propagation delay, with a typical round-trip time (RTT) of 500–600 ms. This is unsuitable for real-time applications like VoIP, gaming, or high-frequency trading.
- LEO: Proximity to Earth reduces latency to 20–50 ms, making the performance comparable to terrestrial fiber.
Link Budget and Power Requirements:
- GEO: High path loss over 36,000 km requires high-power Traveling Wave Tube Amplifiers (TWTAs) and large, high-gain satellite antennas to maintain signal integrity. However, the terminal transmit power required for low-bitrate applications can actually be lower than LEO due to the stable, optimized architecture of legacy GEO MSS systems.
- LEO: Lower path loss enables the use of lower-power RF systems. However, the rapid movement requires complex phased array antennas at the user terminal to electronically track satellites and manage seamless handoffs between nodes in the constellation.
Network Resilience and Capacity:
- GEO: A single satellite can cover up to 42% of the Earth’s surface, but capacity is centralized; a single point of failure can impact an entire region.
- LEO: Resilience is achieved through distributed constellations of thousands of satellites. These systems often utilize Intersatellite Links (ISLs)—optical or RF mesh networks in space—to route data between satellites, reducing the need for local ground gateways.

Comparison Summary

Feature	LEO Architecture	GEO Architecture
Altitude	160 – 2,000 km	~35,786 km
Latency (RTT)	20 – 50 ms	500 – 600 ms
Coverage	Regional/Global via large constellation	~1/3 of Earth per satellite
Terminal Type	Advanced tracking/Phased array	Fixed parabolic dish
Operational Life	~5 years (due to atmospheric drag)	~15 years

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References:

https://www.ookla.com/articles/starlink-hits-new-us-highs

Ookla: D2D satellite connectivity surged 24.5% during last 9 months; Starlink’s footprint expansion leads the way

US Mobile’s new bundle combines its multi-network mobile service with Starlink residential internet

Starlink doubles subscriber base; expands to to 42 new countries, territories & markets

Elon Musk: Starlink could become a global mobile carrier; 2 year timeframe for new smartphones

Direct-to-Device (D2D) satellite network comparison: Starlink V2 (Starlink Mobile) vs “Satellite Connect Europe”

Blue Origin announces TeraWave – satellite internet rival for Starlink and Amazon Leo

Amazon Leo (formerly Project Kuiper) unveils satellite broadband for enterprises; Competitive analysis with Starlink

China ITU filing to put ~200K satellites in low earth orbit while FCC authorizes 7.5K additional Starlink LEO satellites

GEO satellite internet from HughesNet and Viasat can’t compete with LEO Starlink in speed or latency

Ookla: D2D satellite connectivity surged 24.5% during last 9 months; Starlink’s footprint expansion leads the way

Posted on April 21, 2026 by Alan Weissberger

Introduction:

Direct-to-device (D2D) satellite connectivity, primarily driven by Starlink deployments, continues to accelerate despite nascent market maturity. Ookla’s latest analysis reveals that while global D2D connections surged 24.5% from July 2025 to March 2026—spurred by Starlink’s expansion into Chile, Ukraine, Peru, and the UK—penetration among mobile subscribers remains under 1.5% in leading markets.

Starlink dominates D2D traffic, accounting for the bulk of connections alongside contributions from Skylo and Lynk Global. Initial use cases center on non-terrestrial network (NTN) extensions for SMS and geolocation in coverage gaps, with next-gen systems eyeing 5G NR integration via acquired spectrum like EchoStar’s holdings. Regional growth offset US/Canada dips, potentially tied to T-Mobile and Rogers introducing D2D surcharges amid seasonal patterns.

Image Credit: Ookla

The U.S. leads absolute volume, underscoring early-mover advantage in mature ecosystems. However, D2D growth was partially offset by a drop in connections in the U.S. and Canada. “This may correspond to moves by T-Mobile (in the US) and Rogers (in Canada) to begin charging some customers for D2D services, as well as other factors such as seasonal usage trends,” Mike Dano, lead analyst at Ookla explained in the report.

Country/Region	D2D Share (%)	Unique Monthly Users (% of Cellular Base)
U.S.	45.9	0.46
Australia	18.1	1.07
Chile	10.0	1.26
Canada	9.8	0.70
UK	4.5	0.30

From the report:

Using flagship smartphones, RootMetrics’ engineers in the U.S. conducted drive tests in northern New York state in the second half of 2025, testing that included efforts to send text messages through T-Mobile’s Starlink-powered D2D connections in locations where T-Mobile’s cellular service wasn’t available. The drive traveled in and out of T-Mobile’s coverage area in the region. In all, RootMetrics’ kit tried 238 times to send text messages through Starlink’s D2D network (when connected to Starlink’s MNC) during this drive test. The phones successfully sent and received texts 143 times, or roughly 60% of the time.

The longest amount of time it took for the RootMetrics’ kit to successfully send and receive a D2D text was 5 minutes. The shortest amount of time was 1 second. The average amount of time it took to successfully send and then receive a text (across the 143 successfully completed tests) was 1 minute, 17 seconds.

Again, this test was conducted while RootMetrics’ engineers were driving, so the sending and receiving phones were in a moving car and were not stationary. Most D2D services are intended to be used outdoors, in a stationary situation, with a clear view of the sky. The widespread availability of satellite-powered ‘broadband connectivity,’ as AT&T has promised, could ease demand for additional cell towers in rural areas. This could affect the long-term business for cell tower operators.

Adoption Barriers:

Terrestrial networks already blanket 96% of the global population per GSMA Intelligence, curbing urgency for D2D beyond edge cases. Low awareness and constrained throughput—versus 5G benchmarks—further limit uptake, though link budgets and multi-orbit architectures promise evolution.

Future Outlook:

Based on the February GSA (Global mobile Suppliers Association) report, Direct-to-Device (D2D) services have achieved commercial launch in 15 markets, with 61 countries currently in the evaluation, testing, or deployment phases of Non-Terrestrial Network (NTN) partnerships. Starlink dominates the landscape with 59 partnerships, followed by AST SpaceMobile at 28. In China—a market excluded from GSA data—ABI Research indicates that China Unicom and China Telecom are already leveraging the Tiantong GEO system for D2D. China Mobile is utilizing the BeiDou constellation while planning integrations with emerging LEO networks. To evolve from narrowband emergency services to full mobile broadband, all three Tier-1 operators are aligning with state-backed LEO mega-constellations, specifically Project Guowang and G60 Qianfan (Spacesail).

For Mobile Network Operators (MNOs), D2D integration significantly alters CAPEX/OPEX strategies. In rural or remote areas, MNOs must now run a cost-benefit analysis: deploy traditional macro sites or utilize satellite-based coverage to eliminate dead zones. While Starlink argues that D2D allows MNOs to reduce terrestrial investment, the technology is largely limited to outdoor environments. Given that approximately 80% of mobile traffic is generated indoors—where satellite link budgets typically fail—terrestrial densification remains critical.

From a regulatory standpoint, the rise of NTN-D2D complicates Universal Service Fund (USF) allocations. In the U.S., the FCC is currently assessing how the $9 billion 5G Fund for Rural America should account for D2D capabilities. Ultimately, while D2D may solve the “dead zone” problem for outdoor mobility, it serves as a complement to, rather than a replacement for, high-capacity terrestrial infrastructure. Enhanced spectrum harmonization and handset chipsets could pivot D2D from supplemental to resilient 5G NTN layer, challenging capex models for rural densification. Network operators must navigate billing handoffs and QoS parity to unlock scale.

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References:

https://www.ookla.com/articles/measuring-the-direct-to-device-d2d-marketplace-2026

https://www.lightreading.com/satellite/d2d-connections-rising-but-only-a-sliver-of-mobile-subs-have-used-them-ookla

US Mobile’s new bundle combines its multi-network mobile service with Starlink residential internet

Analysis: Amazon <- Globalstar – a strategic move for D2D and spectrum parity

GSA: 5G Non Terrestrial Networks, 5G SA and 5G Advanced gain momentum

Direct-to-Device (D2D) satellite network comparison: Starlink V2 (Starlink Mobile) vs “Satellite Connect Europe”

Standards are the key requirement for telco/satellite integration: D2D and satellite-based mobile backhaul

Deutsche Telekom selects Iridium for NB-IoT direct-to-device (D2D) connectivity

MTN Consulting: Satellite network operators to focus on Direct-to-device (D2D), Internet of Things (IoT), and cloud-based services

Blue Origin announces TeraWave – satellite internet rival for Starlink and Amazon Leo

China ITU filing to put ~200K satellites in low earth orbit while FCC authorizes 7.5K additional Starlink LEO satellites

Starlink doubles subscriber base; expands to to 42 new countries, territories & markets

Amazon Leo (formerly Project Kuiper) unveils satellite broadband for enterprises; Competitive analysis with Starlink

Analysis: Amazon <- Globalstar - a strategic move for D2D and spectrum parity

Posted on April 14, 2026 by Alan Weissberger

Overview:

Amazon said today that it will acquire Globalstar in an $11.57 billion deal, bolstering its fledgling satellite internet business as it tries to catch up with Elon Musk’s Starlink.

Amazon is accelerating its Project Kuiper deployment, aiming to launch approximately 3,200 Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites by 2029. To meet regulatory milestones, nearly 50% of the constellation must be operational by the July deadline, with commercial satellite broadband services slated for a soft launch later this year.

The acquisition of Globalstar augments Amazon’s Direct-to-Device (D2D) connectivity offerings. Globalstar’s current architecture is optimized for low-bandwidth, high-reliability mobile links that bypass traditional terrestrial RAN infrastructure. This capability is vital for ubiquitous emergency services and IoT connectivity in non-terrestrial network (NTN) white spaces. Through this deal, Amazon expects to operationalize its own D2D offerings by 2028.

IMPORTANT: It should be noted that ONLY 3GPP is developing the standards for NTNs – ITU-R and ETSI SDOs are simply rubber stamp SDOs for 3GPP NTN specs.

“There are billions of customers out there living, traveling, and operating in places beyond the reach of existing networks, and we started Amazon Leo to help bridge that divide,” said Panos Panay, Senior Vice President of Devices & Services, Amazon. “By combining Globalstar’s proven expertise and strong foundation with Amazon’s customer-obsession and innovation, customers can expect faster, more reliable service in more places—keeping them connected to the people and things that matter most. We’re excited to support Apple users through the Leo D2D system, and look forward to working with mobile network partners to help extend coverage to every corner of the planet,” Panay added.

Image credit: Amazon
The Competitive Landscape: Starlink vs. Kuiper:

SpaceX’s Starlink currently maintains a significant lead with over 9 million global subscribers. While Starlink’s core business remains high-throughput fixed wireless via proprietary user terminals, it is aggressively pursuing D2D through spectrum-sharing partnerships with Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) like T-Mobile.

Industry analysts suggest that acquiring Globalstar is a “spectrum play.” Armand Musey of Summit Ridge Group noted that the deal allows Amazon to secure a critical spectrum position and potentially leapfrog Starlink in D2D deployment timelines. Furthermore, Amazon’s proposed data center constellation is engineered for a massive scaling of network capacity, intended to exceed current LEO benchmarks.

“Amazon has been falling behind Starlink on satellite broadband. Acquiring Globalstar allows them to catch up on their D2D spectrum position, and leap ahead on D2D deployment,” said Armand Musey, president & founder of Summit Ridge Group.

Amazon LEO’s proposed data center constellation would dwarf Starlink’s current network by several magnitudes:

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The Apple-Globalstar Ecosystem:

Crucially, Globalstar’s existing partnership with Apple remains intact. Globalstar currently provides the L-band connectivity powering Apple’s Emergency SOS and Find My features. Amazon has confirmed it will honor these agreements, maintaining the 2024 framework where Apple invested $1.5 billion for a 20% equity stake to expand the constellation to 54 satellites. See References below.

Market Consolidation and Valuations:

The move follows a broader trend of sector consolidation as players seek the scale required to compete with SpaceX’s vertical integration and launch frequency.

Deal Metrics: Amazon’s acquisition values Globalstar at approximately $10.8 billion ($90/share), representing a 31% premium over the pre-announcement close.
Regulatory Path: The merger is expected to close in 2025, pending FCC approval and the achievement of specific deployment KPIs. FCC Chair Brendan Carr indicated the agency remains “open-minded” regarding the consolidation.

Author’s Opinion & Analysis (aided by perplexity.ai):

Amazon’s Globalstar acquisition is a strong strategic move towards D2D, but it is more a spectrum-and-regulatory shortcut than a pure technology leap. The telecom significance is that Amazon is buying not just satellites, but licensed Mobile Satellite Spectrum (MSS), operational know-how, and an immediate path into direct-to-device connectivity that would otherwise take years to assemble.

From a telecom perspective, the key asset is spectrum parity. Globalstar holds licensed MSS spectrum in the L/S-band ranges used for satellite mobile services, and that spectrum is hard to replicate because the FCC has previously rejected or constrained new entrants in those bands. That makes the deal valuable less as a fleet expansion play and more as a way to secure a legally usable radio layer for D2D, which is not at all guaranteed.

Amazon’s stated plan is to combine Globalstar’s spectrum and MSS operations with Amazon Leo to deliver D2D services beginning in 2028, with claims of higher spectrum efficiency than legacy direct-to-cell systems. In telecom terms, that implies Amazon wants to move from “coverage extension” into a more integrated NTN architecture that can support voice, text, and eventually data services at scale. That’s certainly a tall order!

Against Starlink, this is a defensive and offensive move all at the same time. Starlink already has a lead in satellite scale and has commercialized carrier partnerships like T-Mobile’s direct-to-cell offering, so Amazon’s problem has been less launch capacity than spectrum and service readiness. Buying Globalstar narrows that gap by giving Amazon a ready-made regulatory and spectrum base instead of forcing it to negotiate every D2D pathway from scratch.

Against carriers, the move is more nuanced. Amazon is not simply disintermediating mobile operators; its own materials describe D2D as a way to help MNOs extend voice, text, and data beyond terrestrial reach. That suggests a wholesale or partner model, but the long-term competitive risk is obvious: if Amazon owns the satellite layer and the device/service stack, carriers may become optional distribution partners rather than network gatekeepers.

The phrase “spectrum parity” is the real strategic clue. In telecom, constellation size matters, but spectrum rights determine whether a constellation can actually deliver service with usable link budgets, device compatibility, and regulatory clearance. Globalstar’s spectrum therefore acts like a license to compete, not just a frequency block.

This also helps explain why the deal is strategically defensive for Amazon. Without Globalstar, Amazon would face a slower, less certain path through band planning, interference disputes, and NTNspecific regulatory work, especially in crowded MSS allocations. In that sense, the acquisition is a classic telecom play: buy scarce spectrum, then scale the network around it.

The biggest near-term risk to this deal is regulatory. The transaction will need FCC and likely antitrust review, and Amazon will also have to navigate the Apple/Globalstar relationship because Globalstar powers Apple’s Emergency SOS service. That creates both transition risk and potential bargaining leverage for Apple, which could complicate service continuity and deal terms.

Technically, D2D is still constrained by small link budgets, handset antenna limits, and the need to prioritize messaging and emergency services before richer data use cases. Even if Amazon claims better spectrum efficiency, the first commercially meaningful services will likely remain low-throughput, coverage-oriented offerings rather than full terrestrial substitutes. So the real competition is not “satellite internet for phones” in the consumer broadband sense, but who controls the premium coverage layer for dead zones, emergency service, enterprise continuity, and carrier augmentation.

In conclusion, Amazon is making a category-defining infrastructure purchase, not just a corporate acquisition. If approved, it gives Amazon a credible D2D spectrum position, reduces its regulatory latency, and turns Amazon Leo into a more complete and highly competitive NTN platform and D2D service provider.

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References:

https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/company-news/amazon-globalstar-apple

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/amazon-signs-1157-billion-deal-satellite-firm-globalstar-challenge-starlink-2026-04-14/

Amazon Leo (formerly Project Kuiper) unveils satellite broadband for enterprises; Competitive analysis with Starlink

Blue Origin announces TeraWave – satellite internet rival for Starlink and Amazon Leo

NBN selects Amazon Project Kuiper over Starlink for LEO satellite internet service in Australia

Amazon launches first Project Kuiper satellites in direct competition with SpaceX/Starlink

Emergency SOS: Apple iPhones to be able to send/receive texts via Globalstar LEO satellites in November

FCC proposes regulatory framework for space-mobile network operator collaboration

AT&T deal with AST SpaceMobile to provide wireless service from space

Starlink Direct to Cell service (via Entel) is coming to Chile and Peru be end of 2024

Starlink’s Direct to Cell service for existing LTE phones “wherever you can see the sky”

US Mobile’s new bundle combines its multi-network mobile service with Starlink residential internet

Posted on April 12, 2026 by Alan Weissberger

MVNO US Mobile has announced a partnership with Starlink to offer customers a bundle which includes its pre-paid wireless service with home internet from the Space X owned LEO satellite internet provider. Ahmed Khattak, CEO of US Mobile, announced the partnership on Reddit, saying their Starlink One service will be offered without data caps. Khattak stated the Starlink bundle will be offered with US Mobile’s unlimited standard or premium plans able to access all three networks, which means customers only need to deal with one bill, one app and “one company that actually picks up the phone.”

“I won’t tease numbers too hard, but imagine a plan for less than $50 a month that spans every major network in the United States, extends across Canada and Mexico, includes internet from space at home,” Khattak wrote. US Mobile has MNVO deals in place with AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile US and uses a platform which gives customers the ability to switch between networks. This “terrestrial and celestial” unification allows customers to manage their home and mobile connectivity under a single bill and app.

US Mobile and SpaceX have joined forces to redefine convergence. | Image by US Mobile

Details on the exact cost of the bundled tier and Starlink equipment were not available. Wave7 Research analyst Jeff Moore told Mobile World Live Starlink started offering its home broadband service last month in 120 T-Mobile Boost retail stores as part of a pilot program. “If Starlink is working to sell home Internet via Boost and providing mobile connectivity via US Mobile, then Starlink is probably having conversations with other MVNOs about options for becoming channels for internet sales and for mobile satellite connectivity,” he explained.

Meanwhile, Khattak stated he expects similar deals will follow with additional satellite broadband providers such as Amazon Leo. “The endgame is Global Multi-Orbit Convergence. Every major terrestrial network on the ground, every major LEO constellation in the sky, stitched together into a single plan that follows you anywhere on earth,” Khattak added.

The mobile portion of the bundle leverages US Mobile’s “unification layer,” which provides dynamic access to all three major US networks.

Dynamic Network Switching: Users can access Warp (Verizon), Dark Star (AT&T), and Light Speed (T-Mobile).
Automatic Handover: While US Mobile previously required manual “Teleporting” between networks, the new Multi-Network Add-on allows phones to automatically switch to the strongest available signal or a backup network if the primary one fails.
Unified Account: Both the Starlink satellite session and terrestrial cellular lines are managed via a single “unification layer,” which CEO Ahmed Khattak describes as a software infrastructure that’s been a decade in the making.

Plan Limitations:

Introductory Pricing: Most Starlink discounts revert to standard pricing (an increase of roughly $20/month) after the first six months.
Availability: The bundle is not available in certain areas subject to Starlink congestion pricing.
Hardware Requirements: To use dynamic network switching, your device must support multiple active eSIMs.

AT&T recently launched OneConnect, a cellular and fiber bundle providing one mobile line and fiber internet for $90 per month. T-Mobile’s MVNO Mint Mobile countered with a wireless and 5G internet bundle starting at $45 per month.

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References:

US MVNO teams with Starlink on home, wireless bundle

https://www.phonearena.com/news/us-mobile-starlink_id179545

Direct-to-Device (D2D) satellite network comparison: Starlink V2 (Starlink Mobile) vs “Satellite Connect Europe”

Blue Origin announces TeraWave – satellite internet rival for Starlink and Amazon Leo

Amazon Leo (formerly Project Kuiper) unveils satellite broadband for enterprises; Competitive analysis with Starlink

Starlink doubles subscriber base; expands to to 42 new countries, territories & markets

Elon Musk: Starlink could become a global mobile carrier; 2 year timeframe for new smartphones

KDDI unveils AU Starlink direct-to-cell satellite service

GEO satellite internet from HughesNet and Viasat can’t compete with LEO Starlink in speed or latency

Direct-to-Device (D2D) satellite network comparison: Starlink V2 (Starlink Mobile) vs “Satellite Connect Europe”

Posted on March 5, 2026 by Alan Weissberger

Executive Summary:

1. Starlink is preparing a new Direct-to-Device (D2D) constellation to provide satellite fill-in services and has renamed their V2 D2D services as Starlink Mobile. This rebrand coincides with the introduction of their next-generation V2 satellites, which aim to provide 5G-like broadband speeds (up to 150 Mbit/s) directly to unmodified smartphones. With 650 direct-to-cell Starlink satellites active, part of a constellation of almost 10,000 Starlink satellites of various kinds, that roaming service now offers connectivity to 32 countries across six continents. Today, Starlink V1 D2D has 10 million active users a month – and the company expects to top 25 million by the end of 2026.

Where Starlink V1 delivers text and what Nicolls described as “light data,” meaning only for selected apps, Starlink V2 (Starlink Mobile) will deliver what was called “terrestrial-like connectivity.” In good conditions, “it should look and feel like you’re connected to a high-performing 5G terrestrial network.” To make that happen, V2 will need both new frequencies – the same globally-licensed S-band Starlink will use for emergency alerts – and new, much larger satellites.

Image Credit: ZUMA Press Inc/Alamy Stock Photo

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2. European operators have launched “Satellite Connect Europe“ to offer wholesale D2D services to mobile carriers. Satellite Connect Europe is actually a joint venture between AST SpaceMobile and Vodafone. It will primarily use satellites provided by AST SpaceMobile to offer direct-to-device (D2D) services in Europe. The venture is building a dedicated, sovereign European constellation, with plans to establish an operations center in Germany.

Five major mobile network operator groups will deploy D2D satellite mobile broadband services across Europe. The agreements cover CK Hutchison, Orange, Sunrise, Telefonica and Vodafone, with customer trials scheduled to start this summer (2026). The service is expected to launch around the end of 2026, with demonstrations planned in Romania before then.

Role of 3GPP NTN specifications:

Both of these initiatives are dependent on 3GPP-based non‑terrestrial networking (NTN) specs, introduced primarily in Release 17 and enhanced in Release 18 to enable direct satellite-to-device connectivity using 5G NR (new radio) and IoT (NB-IoT/eMTC) protocols. 3GPP detailed NTN specs include TR 38.821 (architecture), TS 38.101-5 (user equipment radio performance), and TS 38.104 (base station requirements), supporting LEO/GEO orbits and S/Ka-band spectrum.

3GPP Release 17 introduced NR‑NTN and IoT‑NTN profiles, defining waveform adaptations, timing and Doppler compensation, mobility procedures, and MSS band mappings so that satellite and terrestrial RANs interoperate under a single 5G system architecture. These NTN specs will be submitted to ITU-R WP 4B for rubber stamping as ITU-R recommendations (official standards).
Both the Starlink and Satellite Connect Europe/AST initiatives map their radio interfaces and mobility behavior to these NTN specifications over time, which should let future 5G devices with NTN support hand over natively between cell towers and satellites without custom stacks.

These two D2D initiatives differ in radio design, spectrum, and integration models with mobile operators which provide the actual end point connections as follows:

Starlink D2D technical details:

Starlink’s Direct‑to‑Cell satellites use software‑defined radios and large phased‑array antennas so each LEO satellite behaves like a moving LTE/NR macro cell in space.
Unlike standard Starlink Ku/Ka user terminals, the D2D layer transmits and receives in allocated terrestrial/mobile bands (roughly 800–2000 MHz) to talk directly to 3GPP LTE/NR chipsets in unmodified handsets, using TDD LTE initially.
The payload compensates for fast LEO motion (~550 km altitude, ~7.5 km/s) with Doppler pre‑correction and timing advance logic in the satellite SDR so that ordinary UE modems still see acceptable frequency and timing error.
Onboard beamforming and beam‑hopping allow very narrow spot beams and dynamic power control, which is critical to protect terrestrial networks sharing IMT spectrum and to deliver enough link budget for small handset antennas at long slant ranges.
Backhaul from the D2D layer uses Starlink’s existing Ku/Ka links and optical inter‑satellite links into the ground segment, so D2D traffic can be routed either to the MNO’s core via gateways or across the Starlink mesh to another region.

Service model and 3GPP spec alignment:

Starlink positions Direct‑to‑Cell as a “fill‑in” layer: SMS/low‑rate data first, then higher‑rate NR‑NTN services as 3GPP Release 17+ NTN features become available in commercial chipsets.
The network integrates at the EPC/5GC interface so MNOs can advertise satellite coverage as just another PLMN/RA, letting devices roam seamlessly between terrestrial eNB/gNBs and the Starlink NTN cells, subject to roaming and spectrum agreements.

Satellite Connect Europe D2D technology:

Satellite Connect Europe is a wholesale platform that exposes AST SpaceMobile’s LEO D2D satellite RAN to European MNOs, with ground stations in multiple EU markets providing regional gateways, traffic anchoring, and regulatory control within European jurisdiction.
AST’s constellation uses very large phased arrays in LEO to form direct 4G/5G broadband links to standard smartphones, targeting multi‑Mbps throughput per device over IMT and MSS spectrum, again without any handset hardware or software changes.
The ground segment is designed so that radio resource control, data handling, lawful intercept, and policy enforcement for European traffic all sit under EU‑based operational control, which is a key differentiator versus non‑European satellite operators.
Integration work with operators such as Telefónica and Orange focuses on core‑network interconnect, mobility management between terrestrial 4G/5G sites and satellite cells, and using D2D mainly for rural coverage and resilience in outages or disasters.

Comparison — Starlink vs Satellite Connect Europe:

Aspect	Starlink D2D	Satellite Connect Europe / AST
Primary spectrum	Mobile mid‑bands (LTE/NR IMT), Ku/Ka for backhaul	IMT + MSS bands exposed via AST’s LEO payloads
Device support	Standard LTE/NR phones, starting with LTE TDD	Standard 4G/5G smartphones, broadband‑class links
Constellation role	Global fill‑in layer on top of existing Starlink mesh	European‑focused wholesale access to AST constellation
Control plane	SpaceX‑operated RAN, MNO integration at core level	EU‑based ground stations, MNO‑first governance and policy
Standards trajectory	Migrating from LTE to full NR‑NTN as device support matures	Positioned explicitly as 4G/5G D2D aligned with NTN evolution

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Addendum: Starlink deal with Deutsche Telekom:

In a partnership with Starlink, Deutsche Telekom will bring mobile communications to areas where network expansion is particularly challenging, for example due to nature conservation requirements or demanding topography.

“We provide our customers with the best mobile network. And we continue to invest heavily in expanding our infrastructure,” said Abdu Mudesir, Board Member for Product and Technology at Deutsche Telekom. “At the same time, there are regions where expansion is especially complex due to topographical conditions or official constraints. We want to ensure reliable connectivity for our customers in those areas as well. That is why we are strategically complementing our network with satellite-to-mobile connectivity. For us, it is clear: connectivity creates security and trust. And we deliver. Everywhere.”

“We’re so pleased to bring reliable satellite-to-mobile connectivity to millions of people across 10 countries in partnership with Deutsche Telekom,“ said Stephanie Bednarek, VP of Starlink Sales. “This agreement will be the first-of-its-kind in Europe to launch Starlink’s V2 next-generation technology that will expand on data, voice and messaging by providing broadband directly to mobile phones.“

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References:

https://www.3gpp.org/technologies/ntn-overview

https://itbrief.co.uk/story/satellite-connect-europe-seals-five-mno-trial-deals

https://www.telekom.com/en/media/media-information/archive/telekom-and-starlink-satellite-to-mobile-for-europe-1103000

https://www.lightreading.com/satellite/at-mwc-spacex-execs-tout-starlink-v2-and-a-key-carrier-partner-for-it

References:

FT: SpaceX considering Starlink Direct-to-Consumer mobile service & terrestrial cellular network infrastructure in the U.S. (See Comments below the article)

References:

Analysis and Opinion (aided by Perplexity.ai):

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Satellite Orbits:

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Introduction:

Market Share Breakdown:

Adoption Barriers:

Future Outlook:

References:

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Comparison — Starlink vs Satellite Connect Europe:

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Addendum: Starlink deal with Deutsche Telekom:

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References:

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