Ericsson Mobility Report
Latest Ericsson Mobility Report talks up 5G SA networks (?) and FWA (!)
Ericsson’s November 2024 Mobility Report predicts that global 5G standalone (SA) connections will top 3.6 billion by 2030. That compares to 890 million at the end of 2023. Over that same period of time, 5G SA as a proportion of global mobile subscriptions is expected to increase from 10.5% to 38.4%, while average monthly smartphone data consumption will grow to 40 GB from 17.2 GB. By the end of the decade, 80% of total mobile data traffic will be carried by 5G networks.
That rosy forecast is in sharp contrast to the extremely slow and disappointing pace of 5G SA deployments to date. In January, Dell’Oro counted only 12 new 5G SA deployments in 2023, compared to the 18 in 2022. “The biggest surprise for 2023 was the lack of 5G SA deployments by AT&T, Verizon, British Telecom EE, Deutsche Telekom, and other Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) around the globe. As we’ve stated for years, 5G SA is required to realize 5G features like security, network slicing, and MEC to name a few.”
Fifty 5G Standalone enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB) networks commercially deployed (2020 – 2023):
The report states, “Although 5G population coverage is growing worldwide, 5G mid-band is only deployed in around 30% of all sites globally outside of mainland China. Further densification is required to harness the full potential of 5G.” Among the report highlights:
- Global 5G subscriptions will reach around 6.3 billion in 2030, equaling 67% of total mobile subscriptions.
- 5G subscriptions will overtake 4G subs in 2027.
- 5G is expected to carry 80% of total mobile data traffic by the end of 2030.
- 5G SA subscriptions are projected to reach around 3.6 billion in 2030.
Source: Ericsson Mobility Report -Nov 2024
“Service differentiation and performance-based opportunities are crucial as our industry evolves,” said Fredrik Jejdling, EVP and head of Ericsson’s networks division. “The shift towards high-performing programmable networks, enabled by openness and cloud, will empower service providers to offer and charge for services based on the value delivered, not merely data volume,” he added.
The Mobility Report provides two case studies in T-Mobile US and Finland’s Elisa – both of which have rolled out network slicing on their 5G SA networks and co-authored that section of the report:
- T-Mobile has been testing a high priority network slice to carry mission-critical data during special events.
- Elisa has configured a slice to support stable, high-capacity throughput for users of its premium fixed-wireless access (FWA) service, called Omakaista.
The Mobility Report doesn’t say if those two telcos are deriving any monetary benefit from network slicing, or more broadly from their 5G SA networks.
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The Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) market has momentum:
- Ericsson predicts FWA connections will reach 159 million this year, up from 131 million in 2023.
- By 2030, connections are expected to hit 350 million, with 80% carried by 5G networks.
- In four out of six regions, 83% or more wireless telcos now offer FWA.
- The number of FWA service providers offering speed-based tariff plans – with downlink and uplink data parameters similar to cable or fiber offerings – has increased from 30% to 43% in the last year alone.
- An updated Ericsson study of retail packages offered by mobile service providers reveals that 79% have a FWA offering.
- There are 131 service providers offering FWA services over 5G, representing 54 percent of all FWA service providers.
- In the past 12 months, Europe has accounted for 73%of all new 5G FWA launches globally.
- Currently, 94% of service providers in the Gulf Cooperation Council region offer 5G FWA services.
- In the U.S. two service providers (T-Mobile US and Verizon) originally set a goal to achieve a combined 11–13 million 5G FWA connections by 2025. After reaching this target ahead of schedule, they have now revised their goal to 20–21 million connections by 2028.
- The market in India is rapidly accelerating, with 5G FWA connections reaching nearly 3 million in just over a year since launch. • An increasing number of service providers are launching FWA based on 5G standalone (SA).
References:
https://www.ericsson.com/en/reports-and-papers/mobility-report/reports/november-2024
https://www.ericsson.com/4ad0df/assets/local/reports-papers/mobility-report/documents/2024/ericsson-mobility-report-november-2024.pdf