ABI Research: mobile network spending to fall 29% from 2026-to-2031
According to ABI Research, global mobile network infrastructure spending is projected to peak at ~$92 billion in 2026–2027 before falling 29% to $65 billion by 2031. This decline reflects the maturation of 5G deployments and a shift in operator focus toward 6G, with reduced demand for traditional Radio Access Network (RAN) equipment.
“5G deployments have seen significant growth over the years, with industry estimates placing the current number of launched 5G networks at over 350 globally,” said Matthias Foo, Principal Analyst at ABI Research. “By the end of 2025, global 5G population coverage is expected to reach 60%, driven in part by rapid deployments in India, where more than 500,000 5G Base Transceiver Stations have been installed within three years.”
As 5G rollouts mature, RAN equipment vendors are beginning to report slower growth. Even as advanced deployments such as 5G-Advanced emerge in markets like the United States, China, and Saudi Arabia, overall infrastructure demand is stabilizing following years of rapid expansion.
Recent financial results from major vendors reinforce this trend.
- Ericsson reported flat RAN growth in 2025 and expects a similar outlook for 2026.
- Nokia also posted flat performance in its Mobile Networks business.
- ZTE reported a 5.9% Year-on-Year decline in its Carriers’ Networks segment in the first half of 2025.
Following the release of their respective financial reports, both Ericsson and Nokia said they expect the RAN market to be more or less flat this year. Nokia is focusing on data center networking, while Ericsson is concentrating on mission critical communications, defense, and enterprise networking.
ABI says some near-term growth is still expected in 2026, supported by ongoing deployments in markets such as Malaysia, India, Argentina, Peru, and Vietnam.
Open RAN adoption is forecast to grow at a 26.5% CAGR through 2031, accounting for approximately 23% of the installed base. However, despite high-profile announcements from operators and vendors, the market is still expected to remain largely dominated by incumbent suppliers rather than new entrants initially expected.
These findings are from ABI Research’s Indoor, Outdoor, and IoT Network Infrastructure market data report, part of its 5G, 6G & Open RAN research service. The report provides detailed forecasts, market share analysis, and insights into key infrastructure investment trends.
Research Highlights:
- mMIMO market tracker across regions and by configurations.
- DAS revenue forecasts by region, technology, and verticals.
- Small cell market tracker for both indoor and outdoor infrastructure.
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Dell’Oro Group is slightly less pessimistic than ABI Research. In January, it forecast that global RAN revenues will grow at a 1% CAGR for the remainder of the 2020s, as ongoing 5G investments. Stefan Pongratz said at the time that downside risks still outweigh the upside potential though, the most notable of those being slowing data growth.
References:
Dell’Oro: RAN Market Stabilized in 2025 with 1% CAG forecast over next 5 years; Opinion on AI RAN, 5G Advanced, 6G RAN/Core risks
Dell’Oro: RAN market stable, Mobile Core Network market +14% Y/Y with 72 5G SA core networks deployed
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