LEO satellite direct-to-device (D2D) technology looks promising. Telecom analyst firms see D2D as a fast-growing but still early-stage market, with forecasts ranging from roughly 22% to 49% revenue CAGR depending on scope and whether they are measuring total D2D services or smartphone satellite D2D specifically. But that’s not happening now.  T-Mobile chief Srini Gopalan, who said the service so far had generated “a lot less usage” than anticipated.

The most common near-term view is that basic D2D will add modest operator revenue at first, but the long-term market could become multi-billion-dollar as broadband and richer services mature.  Here are a few analyst forecasts:

• MarketsandMarkets projects the D2D market to rise from USD 0.57 billion in 2025 to USD 2.64 billion by 2030, a 35.6% CAGR.
• Mordor Intelligence projects the direct-to-device satellite connectivity market from USD 4.08 billion in 2025 to USD 13.80 billion by 2031, a 22.37% CAGR.
• Omdia forecasts smartphone satellite D2D revenue to reach USD 11.99 billion by 2030, with a 49.4% revenue CAGR from 2026 to 2030.
• Counterpoint Research expects 46% of all smartphones shipped by 2030 to be D2D-capable. That implies D2D is moving from a niche satellite feature toward a mainstream handset capability, driven by chipset integration and broader device support.
• Juniper Research thinks the number of monthly active users will top 150 million by 2031. The analyst firm suggests a temporary access model, similar to roaming or travel eSIMs, where consumers purchase access in a particular area for a set period.  Juniper thinks connectivity alone won’t be enough to attract consumers. It believes operators will have to bundle the satellite service into rewards programs or roaming access.
• Analysys Mason expects operators launching D2D in 2026 to see about a 1% annual revenue uplift from basic services alone, with much larger upside once broadband D2D becomes available.
• TelecomTV reports a similar view from Analyst Brad Grivner, who says D2D could give MNOs around a 1% annual revenue uplift and also improve retention and upsell opportunities.

The spread in forecasts mostly reflects different definitions of the market, different start dates, and whether the analyst counts only current narrowband services or also future broadband D2D. In practical terms, the consensus is that D2D will start as a coverage and messaging feature, then evolve into a broader connectivity platform as device support and satellite capacity scale.

Analysts consistently point to 3GPP NTN standardization (rubber stamped by ETSI and ITU-R), more satellite-ready smartphones, and large-scale LEO deployments as the main catalysts. They also emphasize emergency messaging, rural coverage, IoT, industrial connectivity, and enterprise resilience as the first meaningful demand pools.  D2D market growth is being driven by a mix of coverage gaps, new device support, and expanding enterprise use cases. The strongest themes across analyst and industry reports are universal connectivity, IoT demand, LEO satellite buildout, and 3GPP NTN standardization.

Image Credit: Digital Regulation Platform

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Main D2D growth drivers:

• Coverage expansion. Analysts say D2D is filling a major gap in rural, remote, maritime, and disaster-prone areas where terrestrial networks are weak or unavailable.

• 3GPP NTN standards. Standardized non-terrestrial networking is making satellite connectivity more practical for mainstream devices and accelerating ecosystem adoption.

• LEO constellation growth. More low-Earth-orbit satellites, along with falling launch costs and better satellite economics, are increasing capacity and improving latency.

• Smartphone integration. As more phones become satellite-capable, D2D can move beyond niche emergency features into broader consumer usage.

• Enterprise IoT demand. Logistics, mining, agriculture, utilities, and energy firms want reliable connectivity for remote assets, monitoring, and worker safety.

• Disaster resilience. Climate-related outages and emergency-response needs are pushing governments and operators toward backup connectivity solutions.

• Carrier-satellite partnerships. Cooperation between MNOs and satellite operators is speeding commercialization and helping services reach scale.

The D2Dmarket is still starting with messaging, emergency connectivity, and narrowband IoT, but analysts expect growth to broaden as device support and satellite capacity improve. In short, D2D grows fastest where it solves a clear pain point: no coverage, weak resilience, or expensive remote connectivity.

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References:

https://www.lightreading.com/satellite/making-the-most-of-satellite-d2d

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