New market research from Omdia reveals that satellite IoT is entering a period of rapid expansion, with connections projected to grow from 7.7 million in 2023 to 197.7 million by 2035, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31%.  Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite IoT connections are projected to grow at a CAGR of 88.6% over the forecast period supported by rapid satellite deployment, increasing bandwidth and availability, and falling connectivity costs. The Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) satellite market is  expected to grow at a much more moderate CAGR of 7.3%.

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Here’s an illustration depicting LEO, MEO (Medium Earth Orbit), and GEO satellite IoT connections. MEO-satellite services are used for maritime navigation and crew communications, therefore not serving many IoT-related use-cases just yet.

Source: Olga Kostina at https://www.iotforall.com/types-of-satellite-networks-used-in-iot-solutions

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“While the technical advances in the satellite market are significant, their timing is equally important,” said John Canali, Principal Analyst, IoT at Omdia. “As IoT matures enterprises increasingly need global coverage without connectivity gaps. as well as greater resilience when terrestrial connectivity is unavailable. These requirements will become more pressing as IoT devices support a growing range of data-intensive models and automated applications.”

Omdia expects satellite connectivity to see growing adoption across key IoT verticals including agriculture and environmental monitoring, defense and military, energy and utilities, transportation and logistics.

Source: Omdia

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The automotive industry is expected to emerge as a key adopter of satellite connectivity, with connected vehicles expected to surge from just 11,000 in 2023 to over 112 million by 2035—representing a CAGR of 115%. Major automotive manufacturers including Geely, Tesla, BMW, and Stellantis are actively testing and deploying satellite connectivity solutions to create a true “network of networks,” enabling vehicles to operate seamlessly by switching dynamically between terrestrial and non-terrestrial networks.

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Satellite IoT forecast landscape:

As of August 2026, market research firms broadly expect strong growth in satellite IoT, but the estimates vary substantially because firms define the market differently—some measure connections, while others include connectivity services, equipment, software, backhaul, or broader satellite-enabled IoT solutions.

Omdia: connection-led expansion:

Omdia’s forecast is particularly important for assessing the potential scale of the satellite IoT installed base:

• Total connections: approximately 197.6–197.7 million by 2035.

• Starting point: 7.7 million connections in 2023.

• Overall growth: approximately 31% CAGR.

• LEO connections: 88.6% CAGR.

• GEO connections: 7.3% CAGR.

• Connected vehicles: growth from approximately 11,000 in 2023 to more than 112 million in 2035, equivalent to a 115% CAGR.

IoT Analytics: operator and equipment revenue:

IoT Analytics estimates that satellite IoT connections reached 7.5 million in 2024. It forecasts combined revenue for satellite network operators and equipment vendors to exceed $4.7 billion by 2030, representing a 26% CAGR. Its analysis emphasizes declining LEO costs, multi-orbit networks, hybrid satellite-terrestrial architectures, standardized protocols, and automotive and transportation use cases.

ABI Research: approximately $4 billion by 2030:

ABI Research forecasts more than 26 million satellite IoT connections and a market size of approximately $4 billion by 2030. It identifies agriculture, energy and utilities, fisheries and aquaculture, and environmental monitoring as important verticals. ABI also expects satellite IoT agriculture connections to exceed 1.4 million by 2029 and condition-based environmental-monitoring connections to exceed one million.

ABI’s later forecast material gives a somewhat different connection estimate—approximately 28 million connections by 2030—illustrating how forecasts change with report vintage, market definition, and assumptions regarding direct-to-device and NTN deployments.

Revenue Forecasts:

Juniper Research has one of the higher near-term service-revenue estimates, projecting the satellite IoT services market from $2.9 billion in 2024 to $9.3 billion in 2030. Its coverage focuses on connectivity services and includes forecasts by satellite type, industry, country, and operator.

Grand View Research forecasts a more moderate but still substantial expansion—from $1.49 billion in 2024 to $7.23 billion in 2033, at a 19.5% CAGR. It identifies direct-to-satellite services, transport and logistics, agriculture, energy, environmental monitoring, and defense as major segments.

MarketsandMarkets’ forecast is older in its base period: it projects growth from $1.1 billion in 2022 to $2.9 billion in 2027, at a 21.9% CAGR. It highlights direct-to-satellite connectivity, LEO deployment, agriculture, transportation and logistics, and defense applications.

Omdia does not provide a corresponding revenue forecast in the public summary, reportedly because tariff structures are expected to change significantly as new satellite and direct-to-device providers enter the market.

Dispersion of Forecasts Explained:

The forecasts are not necessarily contradictory. They measure different portions of the opportunity:

• Connection forecasts capture device adoption and are most useful for evaluating modules, chipsets, spectrum, network capacity, and addressable endpoints.

• Service-revenue forecasts typically include recurring connectivity fees and may exclude hardware, terminals, integration, or application software.

• Market-size forecasts can include equipment, backhaul, platforms, terminals, managed services, and sometimes software.

• Automotive and direct-to-device NTN forecasts can produce much higher connection counts than traditional low-data-rate satellite IoT, but their average revenue per connection may be lower.

• GEO legacy services generally have higher revenue per connection, while LEO and 3GPP NTN models are expected to scale more rapidly but face pricing and wholesale-revenue uncertainty.

Conclusions:

A reasonable synthesis of the published forecasts is:

• Satellite IoT connections could grow from roughly 7–8 million today to tens of millions by 2030.

• The most aggressive current forecast reaches approximately 198 million connections by 2035, largely because of LEO and connected-vehicle adoption.

• Satellite IoT connectivity, equipment, and services revenue is commonly forecast in the range of $4–$9 billion by 2030, depending on scope.

• The principal growth areas are transportation and automotive, logistics and asset tracking, agriculture, energy and utilities, environmental monitoring, maritime, and defense.

• The main analytical risk is treating connection growth as equivalent to revenue growth: the market may add many low-ARPU LEO or NTN connections while legacy GEO and specialized industrial services continue generating disproportionately high revenue per device.

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References:

https://omdia.tech.informa.com/pr/2026/aug/satellite-iot-connections-to-reach-197point6-million-by-2035

https://www.iotforall.com/types-of-satellite-networks-used-in-iot-solutions

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