Month: April 2020
Waveform Survey: Consumers Unexcited and Unsure of 5G’s Benefits
Executive Summary:
Americans do not appear to fully comprehend the ultra overhyped and mostly false claimed benefits of 5G (like ultra low latency, e.g <=1 msec in data plane and <=10 msec in control plane) and ultra high reliability which haven’t been specified yet, let alone standardized or implemented.
In fact, only one-third (32.8%) of U.S. consumers “very clearly” or “extremely clearly” understood how they would benefit from 5G, according to this new Waveform survey.
Methodology: Waveform commissioned SurveyMonkey to poll 1,065 adult Americans online on March 30. To provide a wider sample of the US population, the online survey company utilized its age- and gender-normalized panel. Measures were taken to organize a sample representative of the overall population. The company reports a 3% confidence interval of its results excluding a noted exception in which the survey included only a respondent subset.
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Highlights of Waveform’s Report related to 5G:
- Many consumers still aren’t sure of the benefits of 5G
- Despite heavy 5G marketing, only 32.8% of consumers said they understand the benefits of 5G very clearly. This is an increase over the last time we asked this question in October 2018, but still represents a minority of users.
- Most consumers aren’t very excited about 5G
- 65.7% of consumers said they weren’t very excited about 5G. There was only a small increase in excitement about 5G compared to the last time we asked this question in October 2018.
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All the major US carriers have been heavily touting their new 5G networks with large advertising campaigns. The advertised major benefits of 5G are lower latency, higher data rates, and greater capacity. But the landscape is extremely confusing, with three different flavors of 5G, each with different levels of improvement over 4G LTE.
Here’s a quick overview of the different versions of 5G offered today by each US carrier:
- AT&T has 3 version of 5G. 5GE (the “E” stands for “evolution”) is just a rebrand of existing 4G LTE and not true 5G at all. AT&T’s 5G refers to 5G technology on their low-band 850 MHz spectrum, which shows slight improvements in performance for users over 4G LTE. Finally there’s AT&T’s 5G Plus, which refers to millimeter wave (mmWave) 5G that is being rolled out in urban areas and offers dramatic increases in data rates
- Verizon has been focused on mmWave 5G, which they call “Ultra Wideband 5G.” Coverage is limited to urban areas, but where coverage exists, it offers huge improvements in speeds.
- T-Mobile is rolling out low-band 5G on their 600 MHz spectrum. This version of 5G offers slight improvements in performance compared to 4G LTE. While T-Mobile have licenses for 5G on mmWave frequency bands, they haven’t started rolling it out yet.
- Sprint, unlike other carriers, hasn’t been rolling out low-band or mmWave 5G. Instead, they’ve been rolling out the new technology on their huge swath of 2.5 GHz mid-band spectrum.
Waveform asked customers how clearly they understood the benefits of 5G, and the results showed that the marketing is having at least some effect. Customers understand 5G better than before: 32.8% of respondents said they understand the benefits “very clearly” or “extremely clearly,” compared to 21.2% who reported the same in October 2018.
However, overall, the majority of people have a hazy view of the benefits of 5G. 67.2% of respondents understood 5G “somewhat clearly,” “not so clearly,” or “not at all clearly.” The results are hardly surprising given the alphabet soup of different varieties of 5G. And customer understanding likely hasn’t been helped by AT&T’s marketing-driven decision to rename recent 4G LTE network upgrades as 5GE.
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While US consumers understand the benefits of 5G slightly better than when we asked the same question in 2018, their excitement hasn’t increased in quite the same way.
65.7% of our panel of respondents said that they weren’t “very” or “extremely” excited about 5G. That represents only a small change from our October 2018 poll, when 70.1% said they weren’t “very” or “extremely” excited. Apparently a better understanding of 5G’s benefits hasn’t translated into customer interest.
Breaking the results down by carrier showed a clear divide: T-Mobile and Sprint customers are significantly more excited about 5G than Verizon or AT&T. 43.3% of T-Mobile subscribers and 38.2% of Sprint subscribers were highly excited about 5G, whereas just 29.6% of Verizon subscribers and 34.1% of AT&T subscribers reported the same.
The complete Waveform report is available at:
https://www.waveform.com/pages/5g-and-t-mobile-merger-report-04-20
DoJ: Google to operate undersea cable connecting U.S. and Asia
The U.S. Department of Justice announced Wednesday that it has approved Google’s request to use part of an undersea cable connecting the US and Asia via Taiwan. Google agreed to operate a portion of the 8,000-mile Pacific Light Cable Network System between the US and Taiwan, while avoiding the leg of the system extending to Hong Kong.
Google and Facebook helped pay for construction of the now completed undersea cable, along with a Chinese real estate investor. U.S. regulators had previously expressed national security concerns about the Chinese investor, Beijing-based Dr. Peng Telecom & Media Group Co.
Google, Facebook and telecom and undersea infrastructure developer TE SubCom and PLDC (Pacific Light Data Communication Co. Ltd.) are teaming up to build a 120 Terabits per second (Tbps), 12,800 km subsea cable that will connect Los Angeles with Taiwan, but exclude Hong Kong.
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The DoJ granted a six-month authorization for using the cable after Google emphasized “an immediate need to meet internal demand for capacity between the US and Taiwan” and that without the requested temporary authority, it would likely have to seek alternative capacity at “significantly higher prices.”
After discussions with Google representatives, the DoJ concluded that the obligations undertaken by Google would be sufficient to preserve their abilities to enforce the law and protect national security. Under the terms of the security agreement, Google has agreed to a range of operational requirements, notice obligations, access and security guarantees, as well as auditing and reporting duties, among others.
Google also committed to pursuing “diversification of interconnection points in Asia,” as well as to establish network facilities that deliver traffic as close as practicable to its ultimate destination. This reflects the views of the US government that a direct cable connection between the US and Hong Kong “would pose an unacceptable risk to the national security and law enforcement interests of the United States”, the DoJ said.
More information concerning the license application and the US Justice Departments’ response is available here.
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The U.S. government decision to exclude Hong Kong (see Update below) from a trans-Pacific cable was “severe blow” to the city as a telecom hub, a key industry figure said Thursday.
The DOJ said “a direct connection between the U.S. and Hong Kong would pose an unacceptable risk” to national security and law enforcement interests.
Charles Mok, the IT industry representative in the Hong Kong Legislative Council, said the decision was “not a surprise.”
It had been public knowledge for at least six months that the FCC held such views about Hong Kong and was delaying approval of the cable.
More than a month ago, Facebook and Google had amended their applications, excluding Hong Kong and terminating the cable in Taiwan, Mok pointed out.
“It is a severe blow to Hong Kong’s status as a hub for telecommunications and underseas cable in the region,” he said.
“The obvious reasons – behind what the US claims to be concerns over their national interest – must be the widely perceived deterioration of Hong Kong’s One Country Two Systems, rule of law, freedom of information and the media, and the increasing interference from China.
June 18, 2020 Update:
In a press release Wednesday, “Team Telecom” recommended the FCC deny an application to connect the Pacific Light Cable Network (PLCN) subsea cable system between the US and Hong Kong.
FCC commissioners appear poised to accept the recommendation. “I’ll reserve judgment for now, but the detailed filing raises major questions about state influence over Chinese telecoms. In this interconnected world, network security must be paramount,” tweeted Democratic FCC Commissioner Geoffrey Starks.
Team Telecom – officially the Committee for the Assessment of Foreign Participation in the United States Telecommunications Services Sector – is an organization created by President Trump in April. It’s chaired by Trump’s attorney general and includes his secretaries of Homeland Security and Defense. As the Department of Justice explained, Team Telecom formalizes a process that has existed for years, but which will “benefit from a transparent and empowered structure.”
References:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-allows-google-internet-project-to-advance-only-if-hong-kong-is-cut-out-11586377674 (on-line subscription required)
China’s big 3 telcos offer 5G Rich Communication Services (RCS)
China’s big three telecom carriers unveiled a new 5G-enabled messaging service on Wednesday, which analysts said is likely to open a new era for social networking.
China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom published a white paper for the 5G messaging service, known as Rich Communication Services, or RCS,. The paper specifies technical details to invite smartphone makers to support the new service.
The 5G RCS messaging service is designed to replace current short messages with a system that is richer, provides phonebook polling, and can transmit in-call multimedia.
5G may facilitate a shift away from basic SMS messaging, ushering in an era of RCS, where mobile messaging can become much more interactive and flexible, more akin to what we now know as iMessaging through platforms like Facebook and WhatsApp. RCS will not only facilitate the sharing of GIFs and high-quality videos, but will also more directly interface with the internet; for example, offering a list of available flights when the user sends a message regarding a holiday.
Editor’s Note:
RCS has been talked about and in development for many years, with very little commercial market acceptance to date. RCS’ biggest problem has been that it requires consensus across a large and complex industry. Contrast that with an OTT messaging startup with a dozen staff can create a viral global app overnight. It remains to be see if the collaboration between China’s big three telecom operators will make 5G RCS successful in China.
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With the new 5G RCS message service, consumers won’t have to download a variety of mobile apps. They can directly buy train tickets and book flights by sending messages.
Ma Jihua, an independent telecom analyst, said the new 5G-powered messaging service, if properly promoted, will usher in a new era of social networking, and erode the social networking business of Tencent Holdings Ltd.
A pedestrian walks past a 5G promotion board in Nanjing, capital of Jiangsu province. [Photo by Su Yang/For China Daily]
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China Telecom Vice President Wang Guoquan said the new 5G messaging services would enhance 5G innovation and help turn 5G from “the biggest variable affecting the telecom industry” into the biggest vehicle for growth.
He said China Telecom would work with industry partners “to build a new ecosystem and promote the rapid development of rich media information.”
Besides the three operators, 11 device vendors including Huawei, Xiaomi, Vivo, Oppo and Samsung endorsed the new messaging service and promised early support on their handsets. Huawei stated that it would have an RCS-capable phone this June, while Xiaomi has confirmed that all of its new 5G phones will also run the new messaging service.
“Together with ecosystem partners, we will start a new chapter in 5G messaging and further promote RCS applications in China,” said a statement from the three operators releasing the paper.
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GSMA says the key development has been the creation of the universal profile (UP), an industry-agreed set of features intended to simplify RCS product development and deployment.
The Chinese players can also take heart from the positive numbers out of the first two years of the RCS-based +Message service in Japan, supported by all three operators.
User numbers rose 35% to 17.5 million in 2019 and are forecast to hit 40 million in 2021, according to a GSMA-commissioned study.
The number of business messages sent over the platform is expected to reach more than 150 million in 2021 and 1.2 billion in 2023.
What’s more, users appear responsive to the marketing messages. The open rate is 85% in Japan and 75% globally, compared to 3% for direct mail.
Says the GSMA: “+Message also allows Japanese consumers to communicate directly with a range of brands and services, for example allowing them to engage with virtual assistants to book flights, buy goods and make restaurant reservations.”
Worldwide, the GSMA says 88 operators have launched RCS, attracting 403 million users.
Messaging research firm MobileSquared has predicted that RCS will be the world’s biggest business messaging platform by 2021, with 2 billion users. The firm notes that while WhatsApp (owned by Facebook) has 1.5 billion users, it may be difficult to monetize it as a marketing channel because users are required to opt in.
References:
http://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202004/08/WS5e8d67aea310aeaeeed50c6a.html
https://www.lightreading.com/asia/china-operators-to-offer-rcs-based-5g-messaging/d/d-id/758762?
https://www.totaltele.com/505475/Chinese-operators-back-RCS-in-new-white-paper
Strategy Analytics: Global Smart Phone Market to Decline 25% in 2020
by David Kerr
Strategy Analytics updated smartphone shipment forecast numbers from the previous version published on March 2, 2020, given the latest available info and the escalating and global pandemic situation.
We further lower 2020 global and China smartphone shipment forecast numbers in this version, considering the rapid spread into more countries and the big impact on global economy.
The global smartphone market will ship -25% fewer smartphones than expected in 2020, due to the fear and “paralysis” caused by coronavirus. China smartphone shipments will be -16% less than expected in 2020. All regions will see an double digit annual decline rate this year. All industry stakeholders need to plan for a very soft and tough 2020.
No one wins. All OEMs will ship less smartphones this year, leading by Samsung, Apple, Huawei, OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi etc.
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Strategy Analytics was one of the world’s first mobile research houses to spot the looming disaster of Covid-19, in January 2020.
The firm had previously reported that global smartphone shipments tumbled 38 percent year-on-year in the month of February, 2020. That was the biggest fall ever in the history of the worldwide smartphone market.
Linda Sui, Director at Strategy Analytics, said, “Global smartphone shipments tumbled a huge 38 percent annually from 99.2 million units in the month of February, 2019, to 61.8 million in February, 2020. Smartphone demand collapsed in Asia last month, due to the Covid-19 outbreak, and this dragged down shipments across the world. Some Asian factories were unable to manufacture smartphones, while many consumers were unable or unwilling to visit retail stores and buy new devices.”
Neil Mawston, Executive Director at Strategy Analytics, added, “February 2020 saw the biggest fall ever in the history of the worldwide smartphone market. Supply and demand of smartphones plunged in China, slumped across Asia, and slowed in the rest of the world. It is a period the smartphone industry will want to forget.”
Yiwen Wu, Senior Analyst at Strategy Analytics, added, “Despite tentative signs of recovery in China, we expect global smartphone shipments overall to remain weak throughout March, 2020. The coronavirus scare has spread to Europe, North America and elsewhere, and hundreds of millions of affluent consumers are in lockdown, unable or unwilling to shop for new devices. The smartphone industry will have to work harder than ever to lift sales in the coming weeks, such as online flash sales or generous discounts on bundling with hot products like smartwatches.”
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About Strategy Analytics
Strategy Analytics is a global, independent research and consulting firm. The company is headquartered in Boston, USA, with offices in the UK, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India and China. Visit www.strategyanalytics.com for more information.
Americas Contact:
Linda Sui / +1 617 614 0735 / [email protected]
Internet traffic spikes under “stay at home”; Move to cloud accelerates
With worldwide coronavirus induced “stay at home/shelter in place” orders, almost everyone that has high speed internet at home is using a lot more bandwidth for video conferences and streaming. How is the Internet holding up against the huge increase in data/video traffic? We focus this article on U.S. Internet traffic since the stay at home orders went into effect in late March.
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Sidebar: North America has only 7.6% of world’s Internet users:
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According to Eric Savitz of Barron’s, the U.S. networks are handling the traffic spikes without any major hiccups. In a call this past week with reporters, Comcast, the largest U.S. internet service provider, said that its network is working well, with tests done 700,000 times a day through customer modems showing average speeds running 110% to 115% of contracted rates. Overall peak traffic is up 32% on the network, with some areas up 60%, in particular around Seattle and the San Francisco Bay area, where lockdowns were put in place before they were in most of the rest of the country. In both Seattle and San Francisco, peak traffic volumes are plateauing, suggesting a new normal.
While Comcast said its peak internet traffic has increased 32 percent since the start of March, total traffic remains within the overall capacity its network. The increase in people working at home has shifted the downstream peak to earlier in the evening, while upload traffic is growing during the day in most cities. Tony Werner, head of technology at Comcast Cable, says it has a long-term strategy of adding network capacity 12 to 18 months ahead of expected peaks. He says that approach has given Comcast the ability to smoothly absorb the added traffic. The company hasn’t requested that video providers or anyone else limit their traffic.
AT&T, the second largest U.S. internet service provider, likewise asserts that its network is performing “very well” during the pandemic. This past Wednesday, it said, core traffic, including business, home broadband, and wireless, was up 18% from the same day last month. Wireless voice minutes were up 41%, versus the average Wednesday; consumer home voice minutes rose 57%, and WiFi calling was up 105%.
Over the past three weeks, the company has seen new usage patterns on its mobile network, with voice calls up 33% and instant messaging up 63%, while web browsing is down 5% and email is off 18%.
Verizon also says its network is handling the traffic well. One telling stat: The carrier says that mobile handoffs, the shifting of sessions from one cell site to another as users move around, is down 53% in the New York metro area, and 29% nationally; no one is going anywhere. More on Verizon’s COVID-19 initiatives here.
In the United States prior to coronavirus, total home internet traffic averaged about 15% on weekdays. But it started growing in mid March, and by late March it had reached about 35%, clearly connected to all the working and learning from home due to stay-at-home orders.
“The data suggests remote working will remain elevated in the U.S. for a prolonged period of time,” wrote analysts from Cowen analysts.
Craig Moffett of MoffetNathanson said “The cable companies are simply digital infrastructure providers. They are agnostic about how you can get your video content. And the broadband business is going to be just fine.”
“Our broadband connections are becoming our lifelines – figuratively and literally: we are using them to get news, connect to our work environments (now all virtual), and for entertainment too,” wrote Craig Labovitz, CTO for Nokia’s Deepfield portfolio, in a blog post.
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Enterprise IT Accelerates Move to Cloud:
One takeaway from this extended, forced stay at home period is that, more than ever, corporate IT (think enterprise computing and storage) is moving to the cloud. We’ve previously reported on this mega-trend in an IEEE techblog post noting the delay in 5G roll-outs. In particular:
Now the new (5G) technology faces an unprecedented slow down to launch and expand pilot deployments. Why? It’s because of the stay at home/shelter in place orders all over the world. Non essential business’ are closed and manufacturing plants have been idled. Also, why do you need a mobile network if you’re at home 95% of the time?
One reason to deploy 5G is to off load data (especially video) traffic on congested 4G-LTE networks. But just like the physical roads and highways, those 4G networks have experienced less traffic since the virus took hold. People confined to their homes need wired broadband and Wi-Fi, NOT 4G and 5G mobile access.
David Readerman of Endurance Capital Partners, a San Francisco, CA based tech hedge fund told Barron’s: “What’s certainly being reinforced right now, is that cloud-based information-technology architecture is providing agility and resiliency for companies to operate dispersed workforces.”
Readerman says the jury is out on whether there’s a lasting impact on how we work, but he adds that contingency planning now requires the ability to work remotely for extended periods.
On March 27th, the Wall Street Journal reported:
Cloud-computing providers are emerging as among the few corporate winners in the coronavirus pandemic as office and store closures across the U.S. have pushed more activity online.
The remote data storage and processing services provided by Amazon.com Inc., Microsoft Corp., Google and others have become the essential link for many people to remain connected with work and families, or just to unwind.
The hardware and software infrastructure those tech giants and others provide, commonly referred to as the cloud, underpins the operation of businesses that have become particularly popular during the virus outbreak, such as workplace collaboration software provider Slack, streaming video service company Netflix Inc. and online video game maker Epic Games Inc.
Demand has been so strong that Microsoft has told some customers its Azure cloud is running up against limits in parts of Australia.
“Due to increased usage of Azure, some regions have limited capacity,” the software giant said, adding it had, in some instances, placed restrictions on new cloud-based resources, according to a customer notice seen by The Wall Street Journal.
A Microsoft spokesman said the company was “actively monitoring performance and usage trends” to support customers and growth demands. “At the same time,” he said, “these are unprecedented times and we’re also taking proactive steps to plan for these high-usage periods.”
“If we think of the cloud as utility, it’s hard to imagine any other public utility that could sustain a 50% increase in utilization—whether that’s electric or water or sewage system—and not fall over,” Matthew Prince, chief executive of cloud-services provider Cloudflare Inc. said in an interview. “The fact that the cloud is holding up as well as it has is one of the real bright spots of this crisis.”
The migration to the cloud has been happening for about a decade as companies have opted to forgo costly investments into in-house IT infrastructure and instead rent processing hardware and software from the likes of Amazon or Microsoft, paying as they go for storage and data processing features. The trends have made cloud-computing one of the most contested battlefields among business IT providers.
“If you look at Amazon or Azure and how much infrastructure usage increased over the past two weeks, it would probably blow your mind how much capacity they’ve had to spin up to keep the world operating,” said Dave McJannet, HashiCorp Inc., which provides tools for both cloud and traditional servers. “Moments like this accelerate the move to the cloud.”
In a message to rally employees, Andy Jassy, head of the Amazon’s Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud division, urged them to “think about all of the AWS customers carrying extra load right now because of all of the people at home.”
Brad Schick, chief executive of Seattle-based Skytap Inc., which works with companies to move existing IT systems to the cloud, has seen a 20% jump in use of its services in the past month. “A lot of the growth is driven by increased usage of the cloud to deal with the coronavirus.”
For many companies, one of the attractions of cloud services is they can quickly rent more processing horsepower and storage when it is needed, but can scale back during less busy periods. That flexibility also is helping drive cloud-uptake during the coronavirus outbreak, said Nikesh Parekh, CEO and cofounder of Seattle-based Suplari Inc., which helps companies manage their spending with outside vendors such as cloud services.
“We are starting to see CFOs worry about their cash positions and looking for ways to reduce spending in a world where revenue is going to decline dramatically over the next quarter or two,” he said. “That will accelerate the move from traditional suppliers to the cloud.”
Dan Ives of Wedbush opines that the coronavirus pandemic is a “key turning point” around deploying cloud-driven and remote-learning environments. As a majority of Americans are working or learning from home amid federal social distancing measures, Ives’ projections of moving 55% of workloads to the cloud by 2022 from 33% “now look conservative as these targets could be reached a full year ahead of expectations given this pace,” he said. He also expects that $1 trillion will be spent on cloud services over the next decade, benefiting companies such as Microsoft and Amazon.
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China’s CBN to use 700MHz for 5G network but needs a telco partner
China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) announced that it has repurposed the country’s frequency use plan for 700MHz spectrum in order to accelerate the development of 5G technology and to promote the effective use of spectrum resources.
Under the new plan, MIIT will abandon the current usage – 702MHz-to-798MHz for TV and radio and broadcasting – in favor of 703MHz-743MHz/758MHz-798MHz for FDD mobile communication systems. In its notification, the MIIT ruled that mobile systems operating in this band must not interfere with broadcasting or other services operating in the same or adjacent frequency bands. Further, to avoid interference, frequency migration, site relocation and equipment mediation of existing legal radio stations must be carried out. The costs of that will charged to the user(s) of the 700MHz mobile spectrum.
The spectrum in question is currently held by radio and TV broadcaster China Broadcasting Network (CBN), which is also known as China Radio and Television. It plans to use the airwaves in conjunction with its 4.9GHz spectrum to provide a suite of interactive TV services in the short term, and mobile communication (4G and 5G?) plus IoT services in the future.
CBN was a surprise new entrant to mobile when the MIIT issued 5G licenses in June 2019. The company, owned by the National Radio and Television Administration (NRTA), was set up just five years ago. It had total revenues last year of RMB78 billion (US$10.9 billion) — around a third of China Unicom’s and a fifth of China Telecom’s.
CBN began its first wireless network trial last October– a standalone 5G pilot network in central Shanghai, announced last week by the Shanghai city government.
According to broadcast industry website DVBCN, CBN is planning to build pilot networks in 15 or so major cities, such as Beijing, Tianjin and Nanjing.
May 21, 2020 Update:
China Broadcasting Network Corporation (CBN) and China Mobile said they would jointly build and share a 5G network and also collaborate in content and platform sharing.
For China Mobile and CBN, joint network investment and construction at a 1:1 ratio is just one part of their arrangement, which will continue until 2031.
They will jointly own and share the capacity, but China Mobile has committed to wholesaling capacity on its 2.6GHz 5G network to its smaller partner. In areas where the 700MHz band is not yet commercially available, it will open up its 2G and 4G networks.
China Mobile’s statement said while the two partners would retain their own brands, they would explore further joint efforts in areas such as products, operations and content and even in “channels and customer services.”
For China Mobile, which already has 260MHz of 5G spectrum in the 2.6GHz and 4.9GHz bands, the partnership adds to its spectrum inventory and in particular access to precious low-band frequencies.
https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0520/2020052000370.pdf
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As in Shanghai, these will be standalone 5G networks in the 4.9GHz band. The company expects to deploy 200 basestations in each city at an estimated total cost of RMB2-3 billion ($279-419 million).
Table 1. China 5G spectrum allocation
| Operator | Assigned spectrum | Total | Shared spectrum |
| China Mobile | 2515-2675MHz | 160MHz | |
| China Mobile | 4800-4900MHz | 100MHz | |
| China Telecom | 3400-3500MHz | 100MHz | 3300-3400MHz (indoor) |
| China Unicom | 3500-3600MHz | 100MHz | 3300-3400 MHz (indoor) |
| China Broadcast Network | 703-798MHz | 80MHz | 3300-3400 MHz (indoor) |
| China Broadcast Network | 4.9GHz (trial) | TBD | |
| Source: MIIT | |||
Local China news outlet C114 writes that the new network operator (CBN) still needs to clear the spectrum and migrate existing radio and TV services to other frequencies, the cost of which was estimated to run to more than CNY10 billion (USD1.41 billion).
CBN, with income of around $11 billion from cable TV services, lacks the financial scale to build a national network and compete against three big telco incumbents.
CBN has business partners such as Alibaba and financial group Citic, but a partnership with a telco (like China Mobile) is needed to build out the network. The new network rollout cost is estimated to be at least 60 billion yuan (US$8.5 billion).
CBN may be able to reduce that expense through cooperation with cellular providers, though, with a senior China Mobile official quoted as saying that the two providers had communicated ‘to discuss the possibility of co-construction.’
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References:
https://www.lightreading.com/5g/china-releases-700mhz-for-5g/d/d-id/758667?
FCC to vote April 23rd to open up 1200 MHz of 6 GHz spectrum for WiFi
“The FCC is aiming to increase the supply of Wi-Fi spectrum with our boldest initiative yet,” Pai said today, “making the entire 6GHz band available for unlicensed use. By doing this, we would effectively increase the amount of spectrum available for Wi-Fi almost by a factor of five.”
The FCC noted that Pai’s draft order initially contemplates two classes of wireless transmissions making use of the 6 GHz band: indoor, low-power operations could use any frequency range within the 1,200 MHz spectrum, while standard power transmissions will be able to access 850 MHz of spectrum, while keeping away from previously permitted 6 GHz users.
Collectively, the 6 GHz channels add over two times more capacity to the FCC’s existing 480 MHz allocation of 5GHz spectrum. They will also give WiFi routers the flexibility to choose between a greater range of additional frequencies. Apart from decongesting existing network environments, including dense housing where multiple users and devices are competing for limited 2.4GHz or 5GHz spectrum, the 6 GHz frequencies might be used for high data rate applications, without the need to rely on shorter-distance millimeter wave spectrum. The FCC said today that it will seek public comments on allowing “very low-power devices” to access the full 1,200MHz of spectrum for “high-performance, wearable, augmented-reality and virtual-reality devices.”
“From Wi-Fi routers to home appliances, Americans’ everyday use of devices that connect to the Internet over unlicensed spectrum has exploded,” said FCC Chairman Pai. “That trend will only continue. Cisco projects that nearly 60% of global mobile data traffic will be off-loaded to WiFi by 2022. To accommodate that increase in Wi-Fi demand, the FCC is aiming to increase the supply of Wi-Fi spectrum with our boldest initiative yet: making the entire 6 GHz band available for unlicensed use. By doing this, we would effectively increase the amount of spectrum available for Wi-Fi almost by a factor of five. This would be a huge benefit to consumers and innovators across the nation. It would be another step toward increasing the capacity of our country’s networks. And it would help advance even further our leadership in next generation wireless technologies, including 5G.”
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Expert Opinions:
Wi-Fi advocates say the bands currently used for Wi-Fi – the 2.4 and 5 GHz – do not offer enough to meet projected demands. They also say that the 6 GHz band offers super-wide channels, which are needed to carry traffic from a bunch of devices simultaneously, as well as to increase speed. Companies like Amazon, Facebook and Apple are eyeing the band for new devices, including wearables and wireless AR/VR headsets.
”Consumer advocates commend the FCC for its pathbreaking spectrum-sharing order,” said Michael Calabrese, director of the Wireless Future Project at New America’s Open Technology Institute, in a statement. “Opening the entire 6 GHz band for low-power, gigabit-fast Wi-Fi in every home, school, and enterprise will accelerate the availability and affordability of next-generation applications and services nationwide. Even the fastest fiber broadband internet service is useless for consumers without the Wi-Fi spectrum needed to connect all of our laptops, tablets, and smartphones.”
The Wi-Fi Alliance praised today’s FCC announcement while underscoring the growing importance of Wi-Fi. “Ensuring necessary unlicensed spectrum access is critical for Wi-Fi,” it said, “which now more than ever keeps us connected, supports our communications infrastructure, and delivers major economic benefits.”
While many Alliance members offered positive comments on the FCC news, Qualcomm CEO Steve Mollenkopf’s stood out as especially expansive regarding the 6 GHz spectrum’s potential.
“In February,we demonstrated a full suite of Wi-Fi 6E products ready to start using this large new swath of spectrum. We are also optimizing other exciting new technologies for this large swath of spectrum, including the next version of 5G and next generation Wi-Fi.”
A Qualcomm spokesperson noted that 5G NR-U will be optimized to take advantage of the “massive amount of spectrum” in the 6 GHz band.
As expected, the proposed re-allocation of spectrum is being opposed by broadcasters, utilities and other companies that currently use the airwaves in question, known as the 6 gigahertz band, for beaming video signals or monitoring electric grids.
T-Mobile US Inc. and other telecommunications wireless carriers would also lose out. They had hoped to win exclusive rights to some of the airwaves as they build out cellular 5G networks.
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Conclusions:
FCC approval isn’t guaranteed as a result of the April 23rd vote, but it’s likely, as three of the five commissioners — including Pai — tend to vote in lock step. The Wi-Fi Alliance has said that 6GHz-compatible WiFi 6 devices will be ready to go relatively quickly after approval is finalized.
“Once all the rules are in place, products can move relatively quickly,” Blair Levin, an analyst at New Street Research, wrote in a note to his firm’s clients this week about the expected FCC move.
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Addendum – FCC Commissioner O’Rielly released the following statement on April 1st:
I am grateful that Chairman Pai has circulated an item to allow sharing between unlicensed services and incumbent providers in the 6 GHz band. Having worked for most of my professional career on unlicensed service issues and having taken on the lead advocate role for 6 GHz, I am extremely pleased that we have finally reached this point. It’s been a long and winding road.
Today’s item effectively concludes some of the substantive debates and will end some extraneous noise surrounding our approach. While I look forward to reading the specifics, it appears very consistent with my emphatic support for protecting incumbent users while permitting varied unlicensed services within the band.
Specifically, higher powered unlicensed services will be allowed in the band using a slimmed-down automated frequency coordination (AFC) regime, while low power indoor (LPI) use, which probably could use a closer review and improvements to its technical rules over the next couple weeks, will be allowed throughout the band without an AFC.
Although it initially settles on certain lower power limits for LPI use, the further notice will explore increasing these limits, as well as setting workable power limits and more specifics to effectuate very lower powered (VLP) unlicensed devices. “Over the last few years, I have heard from entrepreneurs and innovators discussing how dramatic the impact would be of unleashing such a large unlicensed allocation with seven 160 megahertz channels. I can’t wait to see, and use, the new services and ideas brought forward because of our work here.
Today’s action to permit all 1200 megahertz of the band to be used for unlicensed services means that proposals to license portions of the band were not accepted. I fully support this outcome, but I also remain fully committed to identifying other mid-bands for licensed services. Simply put, U.S. wireless providers must have more mid-band spectrum to meet consumer demand, and I will fight to refill the spectrum pipeline for future licensed wireless services.
This effort is absolutely vital to preserving U.S. leadership in wireless technology and to alleviate the demands being placed on existing networks. I firmly believe that the most likely candidate bands for this purpose are Federal spectrum allocations, such as the 3.1 to 3.55 GHz band, that can be converted to commercial use.
I look forward to discussing this draft with interested parties in the coming weeks, and I will go out on a limb to predict a unanimous vote from my colleagues.
https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DOC-363454A1.pdf
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April 23, 2020 UPDATE:
FCC to open up 6 GHz band for unlicensed use – boon for WiFi 6
References:
https://www.fcc.gov/document/chairman-pai-proposes-new-6-ghz-band-rules-unleash-unlicensed-use
FCC sets 6GHz Wi-Fi vote for April 23, opening door to Wi-Fi 6E
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fcc-moves-to-boost-wi-fi-speed-11585763721
https://www.fiercewireless.com/regulatory/fcc-sets-all-1-200-mhz-motion-for-6-ghz-unlicensed
The New T-Mobile (with Sprint): Merging incompatible 3G networks and integrated 5G
At long last, T-Mobile closed its $23 billion acquisition of Sprint today (April 1, 2020) after a two-year effort to merge the two companies. The New T-Mobile also replaced long-time uncarrier CEO (cowboy) John Legere with his hand-picked successor Mike Sievert. T-Mobile now takes its place as an equal among the three major wireless carriers in the US.
The deal was the subject of protracted legal actions, opposition by 11 state attorney generals, lobbying before the FCC and the Justice Department, and other actions as consumer groups tried to find a way to block it.
The merger required Sprint to divest itself of Boost Mobile and the remains of Virgin Mobile, and it required a number of commitments by T-Mobile not to raise prices for three years, and to provide widespread wireless broadband. T-Mobile also had to help Dish Networks become a competitive wireless company as a way to quell fears that the merger would leave the U.S. with only three wireless telcos instead of four.
“During this extraordinary time, it has become abundantly clear how vital a strong and reliable network is to the world we live in. The New T-Mobile’s commitment to delivering a transformative broad and deep nationwide 5G network is more important and more needed than ever and what we are building is mission-critical for consumers,” said Mike Sievert, president and CEO of T-Mobile. “With this powerful network, the New T-Mobile will deliver real choice and value to wireless and home broadband customers and double down on all the things customers have always loved about the Un-carrier. T-Mobile has been changing wireless for good — and now we are going to do it on a whole new level!”
Sievert continued, “All of us at T-Mobile owe John an incredible thank you for everything he’s done to get this company to where we are today. He has changed what it means to be a CEO. Everything that T-Mobile has accomplished is the result of his vision for what a different kind of wireless provider could be. John IS what the Un-carrier is all about: advocating for customers at every turn, forcing us to think differently and always driving for more. He has always pushed the boundaries of what’s possible and pushed us to do the same. His leadership has made us what we are today, and we will take that into the future. Thank you, John, for everything you’ve done for wireless consumers and for our beloved employees!
I also want to thank Marcelo Claure and the entire Sprint leadership team for their hard work to get us to this huge day! We did it!… and I’m looking forward to welcoming Sprint employees into Team Magenta, and to working with you now as a member of our Board of Directors.”
This quantum leap forward can only be achieved by using T-Mobile and Sprint’s combined low-, mid- and high-spectrum bands — and only the New T-Mobile will have the resources to do it quickly.
- The network will have 14 times more capacity in the next six years than T-Mobile alone has today, enabling the New T-Mobile to leapfrog the competition in network capability and experience.
- Customers will have access to average 5G speeds up to eight times faster than current LTE in just a few years and 15 times faster over the next six years.
- Within six years, the New T-Mobile will provide 5G to 99% of the U.S. population and average 5G speeds in excess of 100 Mbps to 90% of the U.S. population.
- New T-Mobile’s business plan is built on covering 90% of rural Americans with average 5G speeds of 50 Mbps, up to two times faster than broadband on average.
“The network is at the core of everything we do as a business, and it’s critically important for keeping customers connected to each other, their communities and the world,” said Neville Ray, president of Technology at T-Mobile. “The supercharged 5G network that we’ll build as a combined company will be a huge step forward, transforming wireless, fueling innovation and delivering new experiences for customers all across the country that we can’t even imagine today.”
Impact on Users:
For users, the merger will initially be a non-event. Sprint is now a subsidiary of T-Mobile and will operate as a separate company. The transition will occur in stages, and while T-Mobile isn’t commenting on that, a highly placed source at T-Mobile said on background that customers of both companies will find that they have access to the other’s network in areas where they need better coverage.
However, many Sprint 3G devices (CDMA) can work on the T-Mobile’s 3G network (GSM), especially for voice calls or if 4G LTE mobile data access is not available. T-Mobile plans to use the model it used when it acquired MetroPCS, which was also an incompatible network. In that merger, T-Mobile replaced incompatible handsets as the old network was decommissioned.
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Pundits Weigh In:
Keith Pennachio, EVP and chief strategy officer at SQUAN, a network infrastructure company serving both T-Mobile and Sprint, said that he expects to see growth in network infrastructure. “We’ll see network consolidation, networks convergence for some sites and for moving traffic,” he said.
“I expect T-Mobile to take advantage of spectrum assets where T-Mobile didn’t have assets previously,” Pennachio said. “What you’ll start to see in markets where Sprint had a decent footprint, T-Mobile may opt to supplant some equipment to their own.” This will mean that in areas where T-Mobile didn’t have a great signal, the company will use Sprint’s sites and frequencies to improve things.
As the merger progresses, T-Mobile will update the programming on some cell sites so that Sprint customers with compatible phones will be able to use them. T-Mobile will also begin using Sprint’s 2.5 GHz mid-band spectrum to build out its network.
“I think they’re going to be very busy integrating the business, the networks and the employees,” said Brandon Parris of Morrison & Foerster, “and start in earnest their upgrades and their focus on 5G.” Parris led the team that advised Sprint and and its owner Softbank on the merger with T-Mobile.
“Whenever you have two huge industry giants it takes time,” Parris explained, “but they will go through the process of making sure the technology is integrated, and then adding 5G. You have to integrate everything from office space to compensation arrangements. It’s huge undertaking.”
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Deploying 5G:
According to a FAQ press release, “the new T–Mobile will build a transformative nationwide 5G network that will drive innovation and connect every American. With T–Mobile’s low-band, Sprint’s mid-band, and other spectrum, the highest capacity nationwide network in U.S. history will be built—400MHz+ on average nationwide.”
T-Mobile is starting its 5G buildout “almost immediately”
T-Mobile has long said that the primary driver for its merger with Sprint is its desire to combine its 600MHz spectrum with Sprint’s 2.5GHz spectrum for a 5G network. Indeed, in its press release Wednesday the New T-Mobile promised its forthcoming network would have 14 times more capacity in the next six years than T-Mobile alone has today. The operator added that it expects to provide average 5G speeds above 100Mbit/s to 90% of the US population within the next six years.
In comments to CNBC, incoming CEO Sievert said the operator is going to start on the construction of the network “almost immediately.” He said the company would use equipment from its existing suppliers Nokia and Ericsson to build “the world’s best 5G network.”
A key factor in in the integration of the two networks, will be the speed at which T-Mobile can begin rolling out its use of Sprint’s mid-band spectrum, which is critical to its 5G success.
While T-Mobile already has nationwide 5G with its 600 MHz low-band frequencies that feature much longer range than can exist in higher bands, the low bands have lower speeds. Mid-band spectrum is considered a perfect compromise between the speeds in the millimeter wave bands and the lower speeds in the low bands.
“With its lead in customer care and cost of service, T-Mobile is well positioned to bring that winning culture to its new family members, both the employees of Sprint as well as its customers,” said Ian Greenblatt, TMT head at J. D. Power. “The only 5G nationwide network is notable (despite being 600MHz only – it’s still faster than the fastest 4G-LTE) and will be even more capable with the addition of Sprint’s mid-band spectra.”
CTO Neville Ray told CNET that the operator would turn on its new 5G network first in Philadelphia, and that other cities would go live “rapidly” in the coming weeks.
Conclusions:
According to Pennachio, T-Mobile’s culture will play a critical role in the success of the merged companies. “The culture of T-Mobile is very different,” he said. “Now it creates this third competitor that’s strong from a spectrum but with a culture that’s more in line with technology companies.”
T-Mobile’s “in your face” culture, which has been compared with that at many Silicon Valley startups, could play a significant role in how the company impacts the wireless business.
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References:
https://www.t-mobile.com/news/t-mobile-sprint-one-company
https://www.t-mobile.com/support/account/t-mobile-sprint-merger-faqs
https://www.lightreading.com/5g/the-eight-new-things-we-learned-about-new-t-mobile/d/d-id/758625?