D2D Direct to Device
Ookla: D2D satellite connectivity surged 24.5% during last 9 months; Starlink’s footprint expansion leads the way
Introduction:
Direct-to-device (D2D) satellite connectivity, primarily driven by Starlink deployments, continues to accelerate despite nascent market maturity. Ookla’s latest analysis reveals that while global D2D connections surged 24.5% from July 2025 to March 2026—spurred by Starlink’s expansion into Chile, Ukraine, Peru, and the UK—penetration among mobile subscribers remains under 1.5% in leading markets.
Starlink dominates D2D traffic, accounting for the bulk of connections alongside contributions from Skylo and Lynk Global. Initial use cases center on non-terrestrial network (NTN) extensions for SMS and geolocation in coverage gaps, with next-gen systems eyeing 5G NR integration via acquired spectrum like EchoStar’s holdings. Regional growth offset US/Canada dips, potentially tied to T-Mobile and Rogers introducing D2D surcharges amid seasonal patterns.
Image Credit: Ookla
Market Share Breakdown:
Adoption Barriers:
Terrestrial networks already blanket 96% of the global population per GSMA Intelligence, curbing urgency for D2D beyond edge cases. Low awareness and constrained throughput—versus 5G benchmarks—further limit uptake, though link budgets and multi-orbit architectures promise evolution.
Future Outlook:
Based on the February GSA (Global mobile Suppliers Association) report, Direct-to-Device (D2D) services have achieved commercial launch in 15 markets, with 61 countries currently in the evaluation, testing, or deployment phases of Non-Terrestrial Network (NTN) partnerships. Starlink dominates the landscape with 59 partnerships, followed by AST SpaceMobile at 28. In China—a market excluded from GSA data—ABI Research indicates that China Unicom and China Telecom are already leveraging the Tiantong GEO system for D2D. China Mobile is utilizing the BeiDou constellation while planning integrations with emerging LEO networks. To evolve from narrowband emergency services to full mobile broadband, all three Tier-1 operators are aligning with state-backed LEO mega-constellations, specifically Project Guowang and G60 Qianfan (Spacesail).
For Mobile Network Operators (MNOs), D2D integration significantly alters CAPEX/OPEX strategies. In rural or remote areas, MNOs must now run a cost-benefit analysis: deploy traditional macro sites or utilize satellite-based coverage to eliminate dead zones. While Starlink argues that D2D allows MNOs to reduce terrestrial investment, the technology is largely limited to outdoor environments. Given that approximately 80% of mobile traffic is generated indoors—where satellite link budgets typically fail—terrestrial densification remains critical.
From a regulatory standpoint, the rise of NTN-D2D complicates Universal Service Fund (USF) allocations. In the U.S., the FCC is currently assessing how the $9 billion 5G Fund for Rural America should account for D2D capabilities. Ultimately, while D2D may solve the “dead zone” problem for outdoor mobility, it serves as a complement to, rather than a replacement for, high-capacity terrestrial infrastructure. Enhanced spectrum harmonization and handset chipsets could pivot D2D from supplemental to resilient 5G NTN layer, challenging capex models for rural densification. Network operators must navigate billing handoffs and QoS parity to unlock scale.
References:
https://www.ookla.com/articles/measuring-the-direct-to-device-d2d-marketplace-2026
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