Dell’Oro: Private Wireless Revenue Growth Prospects and Challenges
Executive Summary:
Dell’Oro Group just published its 2Q26 Private Wireless Report [1.]. The latest findings support the premise that the momentum is slowing, particularly in the enterprise campus segment, prompting another downward revision to their forecast.
Note 1. Dell’Oro Group explicitly measures Private Wireless RAN revenue. I believe they are referring ONLY to the cellular RAN equipment market, rather than a Wi-Fi LAN or conventional WAN market. However, private cellular deployments may coexist with Wi-Fi, and the RAN revenue measure should not be presented as total private-network spending.
“Private wireless continues to grow, but the market is developing more slowly than initially anticipated,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President at the Dell’Oro Group. “The divergence between campus and wide-area deployments is becoming more pronounced. While enterprise adoption remains gradual, demand for larger and more demanding wide-area networks is providing an important source of growth. We remain optimistic about the broader long-term private 5G/6G opportunity, though the adoption curve is clearly more gradual than initially expected.”
Private Wireless RAN revenue increased at a mid-single-digit rate in 1H26, down from the double-digit growth recorded in 2025. The slowdown is more pronounced in the Campus Network segment. Meanwhile, Wide-Area private wireless grew at a double-digit rate, reflecting stronger momentum in larger, mission-critical networks.
Supplier concentration remains high. Huawei continues to lead globally, while Nokia and Ericsson dominate outside China. The top five suppliers accounted for approximately 95% of Private Wireless RAN revenue in the first half of 2026. Despite slowing growth and downward forecast revisions, private wireless remains one of the stronger growth opportunities within the broader RAN market, which is expected to remain relatively flat. Private Wireless RAN revenue is projected to grow at a 10 to 13 percent CAGR over the next five years [2.].
Note 2. The 10–13% CAGR is a forecast, not an observed growth rate. The reported mid-single-digit growth in 1H2026 indicates near-term deceleration, while the latest forecast revision signals that the adoption trajectory remains less favorable than previously expected.
Dell’Oro’s message has not changed. Private wireless remains a largely untapped growth opportunity, but broader adoption is proving slower and more challenging than expected. The opportunity is increasingly shifting toward larger, wide-area and mission-critical deployments, while the enterprise campus segment continues to face headwinds. Private wireless network revenues are expected to account for 5 to 10% of total RAN revenues by 2030.
Analysis- Private Cellular Growth Prospects and Adoption Barriers:
Dell’Oro’s findings highlight an important distinction between the growth of private cellular RAN equipment revenue and the broader adoption of private wireless networking. The projected 10–13% CAGR over five years is attractive relative to a largely flat overall RAN market, but it starts from a comparatively small revenue base and follows another downward forecast revision. A double-digit growth rate therefore does not, by itself, establish that private wireless will become a major RAN revenue contributor.
Several factors help explain the slower-than-expected enterprise campus adoption. Private LTE/5G networks must compete with mature, less expensive Wi-Fi solutions that already meet many enterprise connectivity requirements. Additional obstacles include deployment and integration costs, spectrum availability, a limited ecosystem of compatible industrial devices, and the expertise required to operate cellular networks. Private 5G is most compelling where coverage, mobility, reliability, security, or predictable performance justify the additional investment.
The relative strength of wide-area deployments is consistent with the requirements of utilities, transportation systems, public safety, ports, mines, and other geographically extensive or mission-critical operations. These applications can justify dedicated cellular infrastructure where conventional Wi-Fi is impractical or insufficient.
The key question is whether private cellular can move beyond specialized industrial and mission-critical applications into repeatable, economically attractive enterprise deployments. Simpler turnkey solutions, lower total cost of ownership, and stronger integration with existing IT and operational technology networks will be important to expanding the addressable market. For RAN suppliers, private wireless represents a credible growth opportunity, but its commercial scale and timing remain uncertain.
References:
Private Wireless RAN Growth Slows to Mid-Single Digits in 1H26, According to Dell’Oro Group
Private 5G’s Business Model Shifts: Ericsson’s Move Signals a Market Reset
Nokia’s ECE Divestiture: Impact on Private 5G Market & Disaggregation
Dell’Oro: 6G RAN Capex to reach $500 billion by 2034 + Counterpoint
SNS Telecom & IT: Private 5G for the Defense Sector to hit $2.5 Billion by 2029
5G infrastructure moves from coverage and speeds to cloud-native, orchestration, automation and AI-assisted networks
SNS Telecom & IT: Private 5G Market to Reach $6.6 Billion as Physical AI Takes Hold
GSA: Global private mobile networks exceed 2,000 worldwide; Ericsson Private 5G from Verizon Business extends beyond U.S.
SNS Telecom & IT: Mission-Critical Networks a $9.2 Billion Market
Dell’Oro: Fixed Wireless Access revenues +10% in 2025 & will continue to grow 10% annually through 2029
Dell’Oro: RAN revenue growth in 1Q2025; AI RAN is a conundrum
Dell’Oro: Global RAN Market to Drop 21% between 2021 and 2029
Ericsson leads SK Telecom AI RAN vs. NVIDIA’s GPU centric AI RAN Alliance
AT&T/Ericsson Demonstrate 5G-Based ISAC for Drone Detection at World Cup Stadium
AI-RAN and Agentic AI get real: Ericsson, Nokia, Verizon & other operators enter into a new network automation era
Analysis: Ericsson’s leading role in French INTENTION 6G project
Ericsson’s June 2026 Mobility Report Highlights + AI impact on network traffic
One thought on “Dell’Oro: Private Wireless Revenue Growth Prospects and Challenges”
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ChatGPT’s Assessment:
Private wireless offers genuine growth opportunities, but its commercial prospects depend on demonstrable ROI rather than technical potential alone. The relatively slow adoption of enterprise campus networks suggests that private 5G has not yet established a compelling economic advantage over Wi-Fi for many applications.
The stronger opportunities are likely in industrial and mission-critical environments—including manufacturing, mining, ports, utilities and transportation—where mobility, wide-area coverage, reliability and predictable performance can justify the additional cost and complexity of cellular infrastructure.
Dell’Oro’s projected 10–13% five-year CAGR is encouraging, but it should be viewed in the context of the market’s relatively small revenue base. A high growth rate does not, by itself, establish widespread enterprise adoption.
An important distinction is that private cellular RAN revenue is not equivalent to total private-network spending, which can include core-network equipment, integration, software and services. Nor should private cellular market estimates be conflated with Wi-Fi-based private networks.
Ultimately, sustained growth will require simpler deployment, lower total cost of ownership, integration with existing enterprise systems, and independently demonstrable business benefits. The critical question is not whether private 5G can perform well, but where it delivers enough incremental value over Wi-Fi and other alternatives to justify enterprise investment.