From a market perspective, D2D and NTN have broad implications for mobile network operators (MNOs), satellite operators, equipment vendors, and regulators. That strategic importance helps explain why companies such as Apple, Amazon, SpaceX, and AST SpaceMobile are investing in this segment, alongside broader ecosystem activity around 3GPP-based NTN architectures.

Image Credit: Ookla

Ookla® has contributed to the discussion with a high-resolution poster showing global Speedtest® usage data for D2D services, along with a detailed market study on the D2D landscape. The analysis is based on Android devices that register with D2D-capable satellite systems from Starlink, Skylo, and Lynk, providing an early empirical view of how NTN-based connectivity is being used in practice.

Looking ahead, continued investment in larger satellite constellations and additional spectrum holdings should improve D2D capacity, coverage, and service robustness. As the technology matures, the industry is likely to move from narrowband messaging toward richer data services, with 3GPP NTN providing the standardization path for broader ecosystem scale-up.

For mobile network operators, the long-term effect could be a rebalancing of investment priorities at the edge of network coverage, particularly in sparsely populated regions. That may reduce the incentive for some rural tower builds and alter the demand outlook for parts of the RAN infrastructure supply chain.

Looking ahead, continued investment in next-generation satellite constellations, coupled with expanded spectrum access, is expected to enhance D2D performance and capacity. Key players—including Starlink, AST SpaceMobile, and Amazon’s Project Kuiper—are targeting higher data rates and broader service capabilities, with the objective of extending beyond narrowband messaging to support more data-intensive applications.

For MNOs, the evolution of D2D introduces potential shifts in network planning and capital allocation, particularly at the margins of coverage. Satellite-based augmentation could reduce the economic rationale for terrestrial infrastructure deployment in sparsely populated areas, with downstream implications for tower companies and certain segments of the radio access network (RAN) supply chain.

From a policy perspective, D2D also has the potential to reshape universal service frameworks and coverage obligations. Regulators seeking to expand connectivity may increasingly incorporate NTN-based solutions into their policy toolkits, prompting a reassessment of long-standing assumptions regarding the role of terrestrial infrastructure in achieving nationwide coverage.  In that sense, D2D is not just a satellite story.  It is becoming a broader telecom architecture shaped by 3GPP specifications and the convergence of terrestrial and non-terrestrial mobile networks.