Nokia cuts sales forecast as mobile sales drop 25%

Yesterday, Nokia cut its full-year sales forecast as the telecom market remains uncertain with network operators continuing to cut spending (CAPEX) in new network equipment, especially for the disappointing 5G (which is actually 4G with a 5GNR for 5G NSA which are by far the majority of 5G network deployments).

Nokia, like its Swedish rival Ericsson, has struggled to replace the strong revenue, high-margin contracts they enjoyed in North America early in the 5G cycle. When work in the region dried up, India became the main revenue generator, but work there attracted much lower margins and sales have now also slowed sharply.

Overall, sales at Nokia’s key mobile networks business fell 25% on year, mainly due to the sharp drop in India, but the company got a EUR150 million boost from a contract resolution with AT&T.  2Q-2024 net sales declined 18% y-o-y in constant currency (-18% reported) primarily due to strong year-ago quarter in India.

Nokia doesn’t provide specific group sales guidance but instead offers sales growth assumptions across its business units, which are all now seen at a weaker level than earlier as the expected net sales recovery is happening later than previously hoped.

The company said Thursday that comparable operating profit guidance of 2.3 billion euros to 2.9 billion euros ($2.52 billion-$3.17 billion) this year remains intact, tracking toward the mid-point or slightly below the mid-point.

“We believe the industry is stabilizing and given the order intake seen in recent quarters we expect a significant acceleration in net sales growth in the second half,” said Chief Executive Pekka Lundmark.

High inflation and rising interest rates have seen network operators spend cautiously over the last couple of years, but orders have slowly ticked higher over the last couple of quarters and the trend is continuing, particularly in network infrastructure, he said.

Late last year the U.S. operator awarded a major network contract to Ericsson for OpenRAN, replacing Nokia equipment. Nokia had contracts with AT&T and the Finnish company said it will still receive the value of those contracts while remaining a significant customer through other deals.

Network infrastructure sales declined 11% on the year, but Nokia said the unit has returned to growth in North America, which is important as it was one of the first markets to experience the 2023 market slowdown.

Nokia is desperately trying to reduce annual costs. Lundmark’s goal is to make cuts of between €800 million ($875 million) and €1.2 billion ($1.3 billion) by 2026, reducing the size of the workforce from about 86,000 employees when the program was first announced to between 72,000 and 77,000.  Expect at least 14,000 Nokia employees to be axed in the next 18 months

To date, Nokia has been able to achieve “run-rate” savings of about €400 million ($437 million), it revealed in its earnings report.

“With the challenges of 2023 behind us, and more normalized customer inventory levels, we believe we can now look forward to a stronger second half and a return to growth [in network infrastructure], which we expect to continue into 2025,” Lundmark said.

The company reported an operating margin of 8.7% in its mobile networks unit and it now expects to report a margin of between 4% and 7% in 2024, from 1% to 4% previously. It reported a margin of 6.4% in network infrastructure and still expects a margin of between 11.5% and 14.5% this year.

Group comparable net profit fell 21% to EUR325 million in the second quarter, beating a FactSet estimate of EUR280 million. Sales fell 18% to EUR4.47 billion, missing consensus at EUR4.78 billion.

Improving cash generation means Nokia now intends to accelerate its continuing EUR600 million buyback program with the view to completing it by the end of this year, compared to its previous end-of-2025 target, it said.

References:

https://www.nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2024/07/18/nokia-corporation-report-for-q2-and-half-year-2024/

https://www.wsj.com/business/telecom/nokia-cuts-sales-guidance-as-market-uncertainty-continues-32d93af1

https://www.lightreading.com/5g/nokia-takes-big-axe-to-mobile-jobs-but-grows-footprint-outside-at-t

Analysts: Telco CAPEX crash looks to continue: mobile core network, RAN, and optical all expected to decline

Nokia (like Ericsson) announces fresh wave of job cuts; Ericsson lays off 240 more in China

Ericsson expects continuing network equipment sales challenges in 2024

Recon Analytics (x-China) survey reveals that Ericsson, Nokia and Samsung are the top RAN vendors

Nokia: 5G Costs Hit Q1 Outlook as Shares Crash and Dividend Suspended

Analysts: Telco CAPEX crash looks to continue: mobile core network, RAN, and optical all expected to decline

Dell’Oro has just cut its outlook for mobile core spending for the fifth consecutive time. Not a single operator has adopted 5G SA this year. 

“It bears repeating, this is the fifth consecutive time we have reduced the growth rate of the MCN market as the build-out of 5G SA networks continue to wane compared to 5G Non-standalone networks,” said Dave Bolan, Research Director at Dell’Oro Group. “This is the first 5-year forecast out of the last five where the 5-year CAGR (2023-2028) has fallen into negative territory. The count of 5G SA networks commercially deployed by MNOs remains the same as it was at the end of 2023, about 50 5G SA networks.

“For the same reasons outlined for the MCN market, we reduced the 5-year cumulative revenue forecast for the Multi-Access Edge Computing (MEC) market, a sub-segment of the MCN market, by 18 percent. In the case of MEC, the adoption rate is slowed much more dramatically than the overall MCN market. The industry is addressing these concerns with several initiatives such as open gateway application programmable interfaces (APIs) to attract the application development community to develop applications for the mobile industry that can easily be leveraged across all MNOs. Release 18 is introducing capabilities for new use cases, and Reduced Capability (RedCap) RAN software to bring more 5G IoT devices to market. However, these will take time to bring solutions to market and more importantly at scale to have an impact on the overall market growth,” Bolan added.

Additional highlights from the Mobile Core Network & Multi-Access Edge Computing 5-Year July 2024 Forecast Report:

  • The CAGR is negative for all product segments—Packet Core, Policy, Signaling, Subscriber Data Management, and IMS Core.
  • The CAGR for the market segments is positive for 5G MCN and MEC, and negative for 4G MCN and IMS Core.
  • The CAGR by regions is positive for Asia Pacific excl. China, Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), and Worldwide excluding China. The regions with negative CAGRs are North America, CALA, China, and Worldwide excluding North America.

Dell’Oro has called the RAN market as “a disaster.” “It’s difficult to find a silver lining in the first quarter,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President and analyst at the Dell’Oro Group. “We’ve been monitoring the RAN market since the year 2000, and the contraction experienced in the first quarter marked the steepest decline in our entire history of covering this market. In addition to the known coverage related challenges that the market is dealing with when comps in the advanced 5G markets are becoming more challenging, there are now serious concerns about the timing of the capacity upgrades given current network utilization levels and data traffic growth rates,” continued Pongratz.   

While the overarching RAN sentiment appears to be mostly aligned over the long term, it is worth noting that internal expectations across the key players vary quite a bit over the short term. In addition to the coupling between coverage capex and the state of the 5G networks (per Ericsson’s Mobility report, 5G POP coverage is lower in CALA/MEA/APAC excl China&India), the dynamics between urban and rural sites also impact growth prospects. The Chinese RAN vendors are generally more optimistic about 2024 than the leading non-Chinese RAN suppliers.

It’s no secret that telecom operators are scaling back their investments in 5G. Preliminary findings show that worldwide telecom capex, the sum of wireless and wireline/other telecom carrier investments, declined for the full year 2023 in nominal USD terms, recording the first contraction since 2017. This deceleration in the broader capex spend is consistent with the aggregate telco equipment slump previously communicated for the six Dell’Oro telecom programs (Broadband Access, Microwave Transmission & Mobile Backhaul, Optical Transport, Mobile Core Network, Radio Access Network, Service Provider Routers & Switch).

“The fundamental challenges have not changed. Operators have a fixed capital intensity budget and capex is largely constrained by the revenue trajectory,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President and analyst with Dell’Oro Group. “What is complicating the situation is that the revenue pie remains fixed. Following some positive developments amidst the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic, our analysis shows that operator revenue growth slowed in 2023 and has more or less remained stagnant over the past decade. And based on the guidance, operators, in general, are not overly optimistic that emerging opportunities with generative AI, edge computing, enterprise 5G, FWA, and 5G-Advanced will expand the pie,” continued Pongratz.

Additional highlights from the Dell’Oro March 2024 Telecom Capex report:

  • Global carrier revenues are expected to increase at a 1 percent CAGR over the next 3 years.
  • Market conditions are expected to remain challenging in 2024. Worldwide telecom capex is now projected to decline at a mid-single-digit rate in 2024 and at a negative 2 to 3 percent CAGR by 2026.
  • The mix between wireless and wireline remains largely unchanged, reflecting challenging times still ahead for wireless. Wireless related capex is on track to decline at a double-digit rate in the US in 2024.
  • 5G era capital intensity ratios peaked in 2022 and are on track to approach 15 percent by 2026, down from 18 percent in 2022.

The market research firm and also forecasts optical transport spending (which includes 5G backhaul) to decline as well. 

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What’s more important is that mobile network traffic growth is slowing. In the latest Ericsson mobility report, the authors cut mobile data traffic figures for the second half of 2023, yet declared that the growth outlook was virtually unchanged.

William Webb, a consultant and senior advisor at Access Partnership, is one who’s called out the authors of the report for this leap in logic. “If lower numbers are being reported for 2023 … then why should the traffic growth rate predicted remain the same?” he posted on LinkedIn.  He denounces the forecast as “a mess,” pointing out that the report, without any explanation, has somehow introduced a 10% jump in growth over 2023-24 to bring its new forecast into line with the old.

Separately, a new Analysys Mason paper says the telecom industry is running up against the limits of growth and faces a “crisis of bandwidth overproduction.” It says the telco responses to this looming crisis – volume price discounts and untried business models – replicate every other other industry in the same predicament. “Growth rates are not declining because of supply-side constraints such as spectrum or coverage; access networks have never been emptier,” the author argues. “Rather, the two principal drivers of traffic growth, smartphone usage and broadcast-to-streaming migration on mobile and fixed networks, respectively, have both run up against human limits; limited hours for engagement and the limits of human vision.”

If demand does not revive, then the lower unit costs brought about by over-investment in capacity will result in further deflation of margins and profitability, the paper maintains.  It calls on telcos to reduce CAPEX to make available more resources to invest in M&A, into other adjacent infrastructure businesses, or in some key non-connectivity B2B segments.

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References:

https://www.lightreading.com/6g/the-specter-of-a-capex-drought-looms-over-6g

Mobile Core Network Market Woes Continue, Market Forecast to Decline 10 Percent, According to Dell’Oro Group

RAN Market Still a Disaster, According to Dell’Oro Group

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/telecom-capex-declined-in-2023-as-operators-scale-back-on-5g-according-to-delloro-group-302102070.html

Analysys Mason’s gloomy CAPEX forecast: “there will not be a cyclical recovery”

China Mobile & China Unicom increase revenues and profits in 2023, but will slash CAPEX in 2024

Where Have You Gone 5G? Midband spectrum, FWA, 2024 decline in CAPEX and RAN revenue

MTN Consulting: Generative AI hype grips telecom industry; telco CAPEX decreases while vendor revenue plummets

Telecom and AI Status in the EU

By Afnan Khan with Ajay Lotan Thakur

Introduction

In the eerie silence of deserted streets and amidst the anxious hum of masked conversations, the world found itself gripped by the rapid proliferation of COVID-19. Soon labelled a global pandemic due to the havoc wreaked by soaring death tolls, it brought unprecedented disruption and accelerated the inevitable rise of the digital age. The era of digital transformation has swiftly transitioned, spawning a multitude of businesses catering to every human need. Today, our dependence on digital technology remains steadfast, with remote work becoming the norm and IT services spending increasing from $1.071 trillion in 2020 to $1.585 trillion. [1]

The chart below, sourced from Oliver Wyman Forum Analysis,[2] vividly illustrates our increasing dependence on technology. It presents findings from a survey conducted in the latter half of 2020 across eight countries – US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Singapore, and China. The survey reveals that 60% of respondents favoured increased use of video conferencing, while online grocery shopping and telehealth services each garnered 59% approval, and E-learning showed a strong preference at 56%. This data underscores how swiftly digital solutions integrated into our daily lives during the pandemic.

Source: Olive Wyman Forum Analysis [2]

Advancements in Telecom and AI Applications Across EU

The graph below represents the project and infrastructure finance deal volume in the telecommunications sector from 2020 to 2023. The dominance of Germany is evident, with the deal volume reported to be $36.115 billion, followed by the UK at $21.889 billion. France follows closely in third place with a deal volume of $20.415 billion, representing significant market potential. The only other two countries with substantial figures are Italy and Spain, although there have been some promising deals closing in Ireland, Portugal, and Romania with large new financing deals in the project finance sector.

Source: Proximo Intelligence [5]

Deutsche Telekom, the national provider, has spearheaded advancements with AI-powered network optimisation tools. These tools leverage real-time analytics, resulting in a notable 20% enhancement in network performance and a 15% reduction in customer complaints. [14] While 2022 marked a pivotal year for the industry in Germany, the evolution of German fibre optics infrastructure has continued apace. Germany led Europe’s FTTH (Fibre to the Home) initiative, with significant financings closing throughout the year. According to Proximo Data, 16 European FTTH financings concluded in 2022, amassing nearly $26 billion in deal volume, with German deals accounting for almost $9 billion of that total.

Spain’s Telefónica has deployed an advanced AI-driven fraud detection system that effectively blocks over 95% of fraudulent activities. This initiative not only protects Telefónica from financial losses but also enhances security for its customers. [15] The adoption of AI for cybersecurity underscores a broader trend in the telecom industry towards leveraging advanced technologies to bolster trust and safeguard digital transactions.

Orange has introduced AI-driven chatbots that autonomously handle more than 90% of customer queries in France, resulting in a significant reduction in customer service costs by 40% and a notable increase in customer satisfaction rates by 25%. [16] This innovation represents a paradigm shift in customer service automation within the telecom sector, demonstrating the effectiveness of AI in improving operational efficiency and enhancing the overall customer experience.

Telecom Italia (TIM) has implemented AI-powered network security solutions to proactively detect and mitigate cyber threats in real-time, achieving a remarkable 60% reduction in cybersecurity. [17]

This strategic deployment of AI highlights TIM’s commitment to enhancing network resilience and safeguarding critical infrastructure from evolving cyber threats, setting a precedent for cybersecurity strategies in the telecommunications industry.

Predictive Analysis Enhancing Telecom Resilience

Interference mitigation strategies are essential for smooth digital operations in the post-pandemic world. Picture digital experts rapidly addressing problems from rogue networks and environmental noise, creating a digital shield against disruptions, and ensuring a seamless user experience. These strategies propel telecom companies towards better connectivity and user satisfaction.

These examples highlight the trend of using AI and predictive analytics to boost network performance in cities. As urban areas contend with population growth and increasing digital demands, telecom companies invest in advanced technologies. These reduce network congestion, enhance service reliability, and support sustainable urban development. This trend not only improves customer experience but also positions telecom providers as leaders in developing future smart cities.

The chart below, from the Proximo Intelligence database, shows European deal volumes over the past three years, categorised by sub-sectors. The broadband and cable network sector leads with a deal volume of $79.784 billion from 86 deals out of a total 137 in project and infrastructure finance. Cellular and mobile infrastructure follows with $31.292 billion across 25 deals. Data centres, a growing trend, also report a deal volume of $30.967 billion across 25 deals.

Source: Proximo Intelligence [5]

In the post-COVID era, the adoption of predictive maintenance and real-time monitoring has accelerated, becoming a critical component of the new normal for businesses. These technologies enable companies to build more resilient infrastructures, proactively mitigate risks, and enhance operational efficiency. As businesses continue adapting to a rapidly changing environment, the integration of predictive maintenance solutions plays a pivotal role in sustaining long-term growth and stability.

Europe has seen profound impacts from these advancements, setting a precedent for global telecom strategies moving forward.

Future Trends and The Way Forward

European telecommunications face challenges shaped by regulatory frameworks, economic conditions, and technological advancements:

  • Brexit introduces regulatory uncertainties for UK telecoms. [18]
  • Germany’s GDPR compliance challenges demand heavy investment. [19]
  • Spain faces economic instability affecting telecom investments. [20]
  • France’s 5G deployment is delayed by regulatory barriers. [21]
  • Italy’s 5G rollout is hindered by spectrum allocation challenges. [22]
  • The Netherlands invests in cybersecurity for evolving threats. [23]
  • Sweden focuses on bridging rural connectivity gaps. [24]
  • Switzerland navigates complex regulatory landscapes for innovation. [25]

In the wake of COVID-19, with masks now a thing of the past and streets deserted only due to construction, digital technologies are transforming European telecommunications amidst regulatory shifts and economic uncertainties. Investments in infrastructure and AI innovations are pivotal, shaping the industry’s future and its adaptation to rapid change while driving economic recovery across Europe. How will the industry sustain innovation and meet growing digital demands ahead? Only time will tell.

References

  1. https://www.statista.com/statistics/203291/global-it-services-spending-forecast/
  2. https://www.oliverwyman.com/our-expertise/perspectives/health/2021/mar/why-4-technologies-that-boomed-during-covid-19-will-keep-people-.html
  3. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
  4. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-data-shows-small-businesses-received-213-billion-in-covid-19-local-authority-business-support-grants#:~:text=Press%20release-,New%20data%20shows%20small%20businesses%20received%20%C2%A321.3%20billion%20in,and%20arts%2C%20entertainment%20and%20recreation.
  5. Proximo Intelligence Data: www.proximoinfra.com
  6. Vodafone Press Release, 2022.
  7. “McKinsey & Company. “Predictive maintenance: The rise of self-maintaining assets.”
  8. Deloitte. “Predictive maintenance: Taking proactivity to the next level.”
  9. Forbes. “Why Virtual Assistants Are Becoming Essential for Businesses.”
  10. Statista. “Growth in Demand for Virtual Assistants in Europe.”
  11. TechRadar. “Vodafone’s AI traffic prediction cuts network congestion by 25% in London.”
  12. The Guardian. “BT/EE’s AI traffic prediction cuts network congestion by 30% in London.”
  13. FCC (2023). Spectrum Efficiency Report. Federal Communications Commission. Available at: https://www.fcc.gov/reports-research/reports/fcc-research/spectrum-efficiency.
  14. Deutsche Telekom’s AI-Powered Network Optimization,” TechInsights
  15. “Telefónica’s AI-Driven Fraud Detection,” TelecomsToday. Available at: TelecomsToday AI Fraud Detection
  16. “Orange’s AI-Enabled Customer Support,” AI Insider. Available at: AI Insider AI Customer Support
  17. “TIM’s AI-Powered Cybersecurity Measures,” CyberTechNews. Available at: CyberTechNews AI Cybersecurity
  18. TelecomsInsight. “Brexit’s Regulatory Impact on UK Telecoms.”
  19. DataPrivacyToday. “GDPR Compliance Challenges for German Telcos.”
  20. BusinessWire. “Spain’s Economic Recovery Challenges.”
  21. TelecomsObserver. “France’s Regulatory Roadblocks to 5G Deployment.”
  22. SpectrumInsight. “Italy’s Spectrum Allocation Challenges.”
  23. CyberDefenseMag. “Netherlands’ Cybersecurity Imperatives.”
  24. DigitalInclusionHub. “Sweden’s Rural Connectivity Initiatives.”
  25. RegTechInsights. “Switzerland’s Regulatory Adaptation Challenges.”

Afnan Khan is a Machine Learning Engineer specialising in Marketing Analytics, currently working as a Marketing Analyst at the Exile Group in London. He is involved in various projects, research, and roles related to Machine Learning, Data Science, and AI.

Ajay Lotan Thakur is a Senior IEEE Member, IEEE Techblog Editorial Board Member, BCS Fellow, TST Member of ONF’s Open-Source Aether (Private 5G) Project, Cloud Software Architect at Intel Canada.

Post COVID Telco AI Blueprint for the UK

By Afnan Khan with Ajay Lotan Thakur

Introduction

In the eerie silence of deserted streets and amidst the anxious hum of masked conversations, the world found itself gripped by the rapid proliferation of COVID-19. Soon labelled a global pandemic due to the havoc wreaked by soaring death tolls, it brought unprecedented disruption and accelerated the inevitable rise of the digital age. The era of digital transformation has swiftly transitioned, spawning a multitude of businesses catering to every human need. Today, our dependence on digital technology remains steadfast, with remote work becoming the norm and IT services spending increasing from $1.071 trillion in 2020 to $1.585 trillion. [1]

The chart below, sourced from Oliver Wyman Forum Analysis,[2] vividly illustrates our increasing dependence on technology. It presents findings from a survey conducted in the latter half of 2020 across eight countries – US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Singapore, and China. The survey reveals that 60% of respondents favoured increased use of video conferencing, while online grocery shopping and telehealth services each garnered 59% approval, and E-learning showed a strong preference at 56%. This data underscores how swiftly digital solutions integrated into our daily lives during the pandemic.

Accelerating Telecom Growth in Britain

Europe was among the hardest-hit regions by the pandemic, with death tolls exceeding 2.1 million. [3] This crisis accelerated the adoption of digital technologies, prompting businesses to invest in smarter, more sustainable operations to increase their longevity and stay relevant in the market.

In the United Kingdom, despite the government’s injection of £21.3 billion into the economy to support small businesses, the emphasis on digital transformation has been paramount. [4] The push towards digital solutions, including enhanced internet connectivity and robust data centres, underscores the long-term strategic shift towards a more resilient and technologically advanced business landscape.

Statistically, the UK telecom industry has experienced significant growth, driven by increased demand and advancements in network equipment. The shift towards digital dependency, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the rise of remote work, is expected to be long-term. This trend has also led to a surge in 5G and data centre deals.

According to Proximo, a leading Project and Infrastructure Finance Journal, projects worth $30.967 billion have closed in Europe between 2020 and 2023, highlighting the critical role of data centres in boosting the telecommunications sector. Of this, the UK accounted for $14.133 billion across seven deals, comprising both refinancing and new financing deals, representing 45.6% of Europe’s total contribution. Notably, one of the recent financing deals to close was for Ark Data Centres, based in London, with the term loan reported to be in the region of £170 million for five years, aimed at supporting a significant data project in the UK – thus establishing the country as one of the market leaders in Europe. [5]

Telecom Landscape in the UK’s New Normal

Imagine having the ability to pinpoint precisely when hardware needs replacement, akin to pre-emptively replacing floorboards. Vodafone’s United Performance Management (UPM) facilitates real-time monitoring and proactive identification of anomalies. [6] Predictive maintenance can reduce unplanned downtime by 30-50%, lower maintenance costs by 10-40%, and extend asset lifespan by 20-40%. [7][8]

Virtual Assistants

The integration of virtual assistants has not only streamlined operations but has also emerged as one of the most sought-after roles, as reported by Forbes. [9] In the telecom industry, where customer service reigns supreme, consider the live example of broadband giant BT/EE. Their adoption of remote customer support in the post-COVID world has propelled them to the forefront as the leading data provider in the UK. Mirroring European trends, the demand for virtual assistant roles has surged by 20%, [10] spurred on by initiatives such as digital nomad visas in Spain and Portugal. This trend not only reflects the changing landscape of customer service but also signals significant injections into the economy.

Traffic congestion

In the hustle and bustle of post-pandemic London, navigating the city’s streets amidst fluctuating traffic patterns and network demands presents a unique challenge. Telecom companies are stepping up to the plate, leveraging cutting-edge AI and ML technologies to tackle these issues head-on. By predicting traffic patterns and dynamically managing network loads, they’re ensuring that Londoners experience optimal connectivity and responsiveness, even during peak hours when congestion is at its peak. Imagine this: congestion hotspots are pinpointed in real-time, and network resources are strategically directed to these areas, reducing disruptions. This means that residents and commuters alike enjoy a smoother, more reliable connection, whether they’re streaming, working remotely, or simply staying connected on the go.

One shining example is Vodafone, which has implemented AI-driven traffic prediction models specifically tailored to London’s intricate traffic patterns. The result? A remarkable 25% reduction in network congestion during peak hours, as reported by TechRadar. [11] This underscores the significance of bespoke solutions in addressing London’s unique challenges post-pandemic, solidifying network performance and reliability for the city’s diverse population and thriving businesses.

Another notable case is BT/EE, which has also deployed AI-driven traffic prediction models in London. This initiative led to a significant 30% reduction in network congestion during peak hours. [12] Such tailored AI solutions not only enhance operational efficiency but also demonstrate the telecom industry’s commitment to leveraging technology to improve urban infrastructure.

Dynamic Spectrum

In the dynamic realm of post-COVID technology, telecom pioneers are revolutionising spectrum management with dynamic spectrum allocation. Imagine a digital symphony where frequencies dance to the beat of demand, seamlessly adapting to surges in digital traffic. This innovative approach ensures uninterrupted connectivity, even in the busiest digital arenas. According to recent studies, dynamic spectrum allocation has shown to increase spectrum efficiency by up to 40%, supporting seamless connectivity for the data-hungry masses. [13] Telecom wizards are thus reshaping the digital landscape, delivering turbo-charged connectivity.

References

  1. https://www.statista.com/statistics/203291/global-it-services-spending-forecast/
  2. https://www.oliverwyman.com/our-expertise/perspectives/health/2021/mar/why-4-technologies-that-boomed-during-covid-19-will-keep-people-.html
  3. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
  4. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-data-shows-small-businesses-received-213-billion-in-covid-19-local-authority-business-support-grants#:~:text=Press%20release-,New%20data%20shows%20small%20businesses%20received%20%C2%A321.3%20billion%20in,and%20arts%2C%20entertainment%20and%20recreation.
  5. Proximo Intelligence Data: www.proximoinfra.com
  6. Vodafone Press Release, 2022.
  7. “McKinsey & Company. “Predictive maintenance: The rise of self-maintaining assets.”
  8. Deloitte. “Predictive maintenance: Taking proactivity to the next level.”
  9. Forbes. “Why Virtual Assistants Are Becoming Essential for Businesses.”
  10. Statista. “Growth in Demand for Virtual Assistants in Europe.”
  11. TechRadar. “Vodafone’s AI traffic prediction cuts network congestion by 25% in London.”
  12. The Guardian. “BT/EE’s AI traffic prediction cuts network congestion by 30% in London.”

Afnan Khan is a Machine Learning Engineer specialising in Marketing Analytics, currently working as a Marketing Analyst at the Exile Group in London. He is involved in various projects, research, and roles related to Machine Learning, Data Science, and AI.

Ajay Lotan Thakur is a Senior IEEE Member, IEEE Techblog Editorial Board Member, BCS Fellow, TST Member of ONF’s Open-Source Aether (Private 5G) Project, Cloud Software Architect at Intel Canada.

ITU-R WP5D invites IMT-2030 RIT/SRIT contributions

ITU-R has commenced the process of developing ITU-R Recommendations for the terrestrial components of the IMT-2030 (6G) radio interface(s).  This work is guided by Resolutions ITU-R 56 and ITU-R 65.  As you can see from the timeline below, the final IMT-2030 recommendation won’t be completed until 2030.

The ITU Radiocommunication Bureau has established a “Web page for the IMT-2030 submission and evaluation process” to facilitate the development of proposals and the work of the evaluation groups. The IMT-2030 web page will provide details of the process for the submission of proposals, and will include the RIT and SRIT submissions, evaluation group registration and contact information, evaluation reports and other relevant information on the development of IMT‑2030.

Candidate RITs (Radio Interface Technologies) or SRITs (Set of  Radio Interface Technologies) will be evaluated by the ITU membership, standards organizations and other independent evaluation groups. Evaluation groups are requested to register with ITU-R1, preferably before [February/the end of 2027].

The evaluation groups are kindly requested to submit evaluation reports to the ITU-R in accordance with the evaluation process delineated on the IMT‑2030 web page. The evaluation reports will be considered in the development of the ITU-R Recommendation describing the radio interface specifications.

The evaluation guidelines, including the criteria and methodology, are to be finalized by WP 5D in June 2026. The availability of these guidelines on the IMT-2030 web page will be announced in a forthcoming Addendum to a Circular Letter calling for IMT-2030 RIT/SRIT contributions.

3GPP’s contributions will most likely be presented to ITU-R WP5D by ATIS. It remains to be seen what other entities will submit IMT-2030 RIT/SRIT proposals.

References:

https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-R/study-groups/rsg5/rwp5d/imt-2030/Pages/default.aspx

https://www.itu.int/dms_pub/itu-r/oth/0a/06/R0A060000C80001PDFE.pdf

Resolution ITU-R 56

Resolution ITU-R 65

Recommendation ITU-R M. 2160

Highlights of 3GPP Stage 1 Workshop on IMT 2030 (6G) Use Cases

NGMN issues ITU-R framework for IMT-2030 vs ITU-R WP5D Timeline for RIT/SRIT Standardization

IMT-2030 Technical Performance Requirements (TPR) from ITU-R WP5D

Draft new ITU-R recommendation (not yet approved): M.[IMT.FRAMEWORK FOR 2030 AND BEYOND]

Mauritius Telecom Expands 5G Network Across the Island

Mauritius Telecom announced that its 5G network is now available island-wide. The company made this announcement during an event on June 18th, in the presence of the Minister of Information Technology, Communication, and Innovation. This nationwide deployment represents a major step forward in the digital transformation of the country, offering unprecedented technological prospects for individuals and businesses.  It follows the initial deployment of its 5G network in 2021 [1.].

Up until now, the telco’s footprint was limited to six locations. With this expansion across populated areas, the mobile portfolio has been revamped to include 5G access under the my.t brand.

Note 1. Mauritius Telecom launched 5G in five specific areas in July 2021. Later, in April 2024, MT extended the 5G network to Rodrigues, expanding the operator’s 5G footprint to six locations.

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With this announcement, the company is now expanding the deployment of the 5G mobile network throughout the island, investing several billion Mauritian Rupees (1 Rp=$0.021). As part of this expansion into populated areas, the mobile portfolio has been revamped to include 5G access under the my.t brand.

Under my.t 5G, Mauritius Telecom promises download speeds of up to 1 Gbps, improved latency, and seamless connectivity, enabling multiple devices to connect simultaneously. The technology will also support innovations such as Augmented Reality (AR), Virtual Reality (VR), and the Internet of Things (IoT), the company said.

“The deployment of 5G island-wide is a significant step in enhancing the digital landscape of our country and transforming not only our personal digital experiences but our entire lives,” Mauritius Telecom said.

References:

https://www.telecom.mu/mediacentre/pdf/press-release-5g.pdf

https://mitci.govmu.org/News/SitePages/Mauritius-Telecom-launches-first-5G-network.aspx

 

Harnessing the Power of 5G

Revolutionizing Telecom with Programmable Networks and APIs

By Ameer Shohail L with Ajay Lotan Thakur

Ameer Shohail is an experienced ICT Solutions Design Specialist and IEEE Senior Member at a Tier 1 telecom operator in the Middle East, specializing in advanced wireless technologies.

Ajay Lotan Thakur is a Senior IEEE Member, IEEE Techblog Editorial Board Member (who edits/adds to blog posts), BCS Fellow, TST Member of ONF’s open source Aether (Private 5G) Project, Cloud Software Architect at Intel Canada.

 

Abstract

The telecom industry is on the verge of a significant transformation driven by the convergence of 5G/Beyond 5G and programmable networks. This article explores the immense potential of these advancements, emphasizing the shift from rigid infrastructures to dynamic platforms that offer their capabilities as services. We delve into the importance of programmable networks, the Network as a Service (NaaS) model, and the critical role of APIs. The article highlights the Network Exposure Function (5G CORE – NEF) and its role in creating new revenue streams for CSPs and fostering a thriving digital ecosystem. The TM (TeleManagement) Forum’s emphasis on service lifecycle management and the collective effort towards a digitally interconnected future are key themes, inviting all stakeholders to embrace this transformative journey.

Introduction: The Paradigm Shift in Telecom

The telecom industry is undergoing a profound transformation from traditional infrastructures to more dynamic and flexible systems. This shift is essential to meet the increasing demands for faster, more reliable, and scalable network services. Innovation and collaboration are now crucial drivers of industry growth, enabling communication service providers (CSPs) to leverage cutting-edge technologies to enhance their offerings and stay competitive.

Figure1: EPS Architecture

Figure2: 5GS Architecture

Programmable Networks and NaaS: The New Frontier

Programmable networks and Network as a Service (NaaS) represent the next frontier in telecom innovation. These technologies allow CSPs to offer network capabilities as customizable services, enhancing flexibility and efficiency. The TM Forum’s Open Digital Architecture (ODA) is central to this transformation, providing a standardized framework for the seamless integration of network services. By adopting ODA, CSPs can decouple network functions from the underlying hardware, enabling greater agility and innovation

Figure3: NaaS function wheel, depicting various NaaS functions offered to consumers, REF[1]

APIs: The Engine of Innovation

APIs are fundamental to the telecom industry’s transformation, empowering developers to create innovative services that leverage network capabilities. The Common API Framework (CAPIF) by 3GPP standardizes API usage across various network functions, ensuring smooth and secure communication. This framework acts as a universal language, facilitating collaboration and enhancing security across diverse applications and industries.

Figure4: Functional model for the CAPIF

Network Exposure Function (NEF): Unlocking New Potential

3GPP 5G Core architecture

5GC (Figure2) is the new 3GPP standard for core networks defining how the core network should evolve to support the needs of 5G New Radio (NR) and the advanced use cases enabled by it. The figure below depicts NEF representation in the non-roaming architecture, using 5G reference point representation.

Figure5: Network Exposure Function in reference point representation REF[4]

The Network Exposure Function (NEF) provides a secure, standardized method for exposing APIs, enabling CSPs to broaden their service offerings and explore new revenue streams. NEF is essential for fostering a thriving digital ecosystem, driving innovation, and economic growth in the telecom sector. Figure below depicts how NEF plays a role with the IoT ecosystem in enabling the communication exchange through API.

Figure6: Illustrates NEF and its role in enabling the network and external applications to exchange information, REF[5]

CAMARA Project: Accelerating Innovation through Standardized APIs

The CAMARA project, an open-source initiative hosted by the Linux Foundation, is pivotal in advancing the telecom industry’s move towards programmable networks and Network as a Service (NaaS). CAMARA aims to develop standardized APIs for network services, enabling seamless integration and interoperability across diverse network functions and applications.

This initiative promotes community-driven development and open-source principles, fostering collaboration among CSPs, technology vendors, and developers. Supported by leading industry players, CAMARA drives the adoption of robust, secure, and widely accepted APIs, facilitating new business models and revenue streams. By focusing on the needs of future technologies, CAMARA ensures that the telecom sector is well-equipped to leverage the unique capabilities of 5G, B5G, and beyond. REF[8]

Transition to a Service-Centric Model

The TM Forum’s focus on NaaS and service lifecycle management underscores the industry’s shift towards a service-centric model. This approach emphasizes managing the entire lifecycle of network services, from design and deployment to operation and optimization. By adopting a service-centric mindset, CSPs can deliver more personalized and efficient services, improving customer satisfaction and driving business growth. This approach also helps CSPs optimize operations and reduce costs by streamlining processes and improving resource utilization.

Figure7: Open Gateway NaaS Architecture and contributing stakeholders REF[7]

Conclusion

The telecom industry’s shift to programmable networks and NaaS marks a pivotal moment in its evolution. By embracing APIs, NEF, and service lifecycle management, CSPs can unlock new opportunities for innovation and growth. The collective efforts of industry stakeholders, supported by initiatives from TM Forum, GSMA, and CAMARA, will pave the way for a digitally interconnected future where collaboration and innovation are the norms. As the industry continues to evolve, embracing these advancements will be crucial for CSPs to stay competitive and meet the ever-growing demands of the digital age.

This journey is not just about technological advancement; it’s a collective endeavor towards a digitally interconnected future. It’s an invitation for all stakeholders, from telecom operators and technology providers to developers, to contribute to and reap the benefits of the expanding digital economy. Let’s embrace this transformative time, shaping the way we connect and interact in the digital world.

References

  1. IG1224 NaaS Transformation v12.0.0″: https://www.tmforum.org/resources/reference/ig1224-naas-transformation-v12-0-0/
  2. “Northbound exposure – how NEF and CAMARA can enable telecom’s platform play” by James Crawshaw, Practice Leader: https://omdia.tech.informa.com/om028769/northbound-exposure–how-nef-and-camara-can-enable-telecoms-platform-play
  3. ETSI TS 129 522 V16.4.0 (2020-08) – 5G; 5G System; Network Exposure Function Northbound APIs; Stage 3.
  4. 3GPP TS 23.501 version 15.3.0 Release 15; System Architecture for the 5G System
  5. “Common Framework for 5G Northbound APIs”: https://www.etsi.org/deliver/etsi_ts/123200_123299/123222/15.03.00_60/ts_123222v150300p.pdf
  6. “5G and B5G NEF exposure capabilities towards an Industrial IoT use case” : https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=5G+and+B5G+NEF+exposure+capabilities+towards+an+Industrial+IoT+use+case&hl=en&as_sdt=0&as_vis=1&oi=scholart
  7. “The-Ecosystem-for-Open-Gateway-NaaS-API-development”: https://www.gsma.com/solutions-and-impact/gsma-open-gateway/gsma_resources/naas-ecosystem-whitepaper/
  8. https://camaraproject.org/; APIs enabling seamless access to Telco network capabilities

 

Ameer Shohail, Experienced ICT Solutions Design Specialist and IEEE Senior Member at a Tier 1 telecom operator in the Middle East, specializing in advanced wireless technologies

InterSAT extends Pan-African satellite services via Ku-band on Eutelsat 70B satellite

Eutelsat Group has extended its partnership with African satellite network service provider InterSat to support its growth in the pan-African enterprise and retail segments. Under the new multi-year deal, InterSAT will add Ku-Band capacity over Central and Eastern Africa on Eutelsat’s Eutelsat 70B satellite to its current portfolio, which already includes Ka-Band capacity on the Eutelsat Konnect satellite. The Eutelsat 70B offers wide beam coverage and four high-performance fixed beams, with a high degree of on-board connectivity. The partnership extension highlights the role of VSAT services delivered through powerful, geostationary capacity to reach remote areas.

“We are delighted to be able to rely on Eutelsat capacity once again to support our growth ambitions in Africa, home to some of the world’s most remote and underdeveloped regions which represent a challenging environment for building terrestrial communication networks. Leveraging our VSAT service expertise and our teleport infrastructure, we are able to use satellite communication to deliver reliable and cost-effective connectivity to remote and underserved areas while assuring a high-end user experience for our customers,” said Hanif Kassam, Chief Executive Officer of InterSAT.

“We are honoured to be selected by our long-standing partner, InterSAT, to accompany the further roll-out of its services in Africa. The growth of VSAT services in Africa is a testament to the potential of this technology to transform the continent’s ICT landscape, connecting more people and businesses than ever before, as well as the ongoing relevance of our powerful geostationary in-orbit assets to deliver a compelling and reliable connectivity service to the remotest areas,’’ commented Ghassan Murat, Eutelsat’s Regional Vice President (RVP) of the Africa, Middle East, and Asia (AMEA) region

Image Credit: EUTELSAT GROUP

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On May 22nd, YahClick (the data solutions’ arm of UAE’s Al Yah Satellite Communications Company PJSC) and Eutelsat signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for YahClick to leverage capacity on Eutelsat’s geostationary satellite, EUTELSAT KONNECT. The collaboration between the two leading satellite operators is in line with Yahsat’s efforts to elevate its offerings and drive growth across its satellite broadband footprint in Africa to provide enhanced services and expand into new markets in Africa and beyond. As part of the agreement. Yahsat will enjoy exclusive rights to Eutelsat’s KONNECT capacity over Ethiopia, one of the fastest-growing African markets.

Sulaiman Al Ali, Chief Commercial Officer of Yahsat said: ‘We are delighted to partner with Eutelsat and have access to state-of-the-art orbital assets, to support our satellite network. This partnership shall enable us to further enhance our portfolio and drive growth of our ‘YahClick’ broadband services to consumer and enterprise markets. Yahsat supported Eutelsat in the early years of its African Broadband journey, and we are happy to be collaborating once again to ensure our existing and future customers benefit from the highest level of service and availability.”

Ghassan Murat, Eutelsat’s RVP of the AMEA region added: “We are honoured to further deepen our ties with our long-standing partner, Yahsat. Yahsat’s strong presence in Africa and the Middle East through the successful deployment of its YahClick satellite broadband service, together with the uptake we are seeing as we progressively transfer EUTELSAT KONNECT capacity to Africa highlight the buoyant demand for robust broadband services in the market, and the pertinence of satellite in connecting users, even in the most remote locations.”

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About Eutelsat Group:

Eutelsat Group is a global leader in satellite communications, delivering connectivity and broadcast services worldwide. The Group was formed through the combination of the Company and OneWeb in 2023, becoming the first fully integrated GEO-LEO satellite operator with a fleet of 36 Geostationary satellites and a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) constellation of more than 600 satellites. The Group addresses the needs of customers in four key verticals of Video, where it distributes more than 6,500 television channels, and the high-growth connectivity markets of Mobile Connectivity, Fixed Connectivity, and Government Services. Eutelsat Group’s unique suite of in-orbit assets and ground infrastructure enables it to deliver integrated solutions to meet the needs of global customers. The Company is headquartered in Paris and the Eutelsat Group employs more than 1,700 people across more than 50 countries. The Group is committed to delivering safe, resilient, and environmentally sustainable connectivity to help bridge the digital divide.

References:

https://www.eutelsat.com/en/news/press.html#/pressreleases/eutelsat-ku-band-capacity-selected-by-intersat-to-extend-its-pan-african-satellite-services-to-enterprise-and-retail-customers-3324324

https://www.eutelsat.com/en/news/press.html#/pressreleases/yahsat-partners-with-eutelsat-group-to-leverage-eutelsat-konnect-satellite-to-drive-growth-across-its-global-footprint-3324486

Hubble Network Makes Earth-to-Space Bluetooth Satellite Connection; Life360 Global Location Tracking Network

U.S. startup Hubble Network has claimed Bluetooth-based satellite communications is possible  after transmitting data from standard Bluetooth devices to its new satellite constellation, launched in March. The firm, with a $20 million funding round behind it, reckons it will extend Bluetooth transmissions from 10 meters to hundreds of kilometers. It wants to “connect a billion devices” on the “world’s first truly global, cost-efficient, and low-power network,” the company said in a press release.

“We’ve disproved thousands of skeptics,” claims Hubble Network co-founder and chief executive officer Alex Haro of his company’s milestone achievement. “By showcasing that we can send signals directly from Bluetooth chips and receive them in space 600km [around 370 miles] away, we’ve opened a new realm of possibilities.”

Hubble Network has successfully proven the core concept on which the company was founded: that a Bluetooth connection, typically thought of as exclusively for short-range wireless connectivity, can be made between a device on Earth and an orbiting satellite.

“We’ve disproved thousands of skeptics,” claims Hubble Network co-founder and chief executive officer Alex Haro of his company’s milestone achievement. “By showcasing that we can send signals directly from Bluetooth chips and receive them in space 600km [around 370 miles] away, we’ve opened a new realm of possibilities.”

Following its $20m Series A funding round in 2023, Hubble Network has been quietly working towards its most recent milestone. In early March this year it launched its first two satellites from the Vandenberg Space Force Base, to serve as a proof-of-concept test-bed for its core proposal: to use ground-to-space Bluetooth links for energy-efficient Internet of Things (IoT) connectivity.

“Our innovative approach allows existing Bluetooth-enabled devices to be retrofitted to transmit data to the Hubble Network without any hardware modifications,” explains co-founder and chief technology officer, “ushering in a new era of connectivity.”

According to Hubble Network’s internal testing, a device communicating with its satellites using Bluetooth could draw one-twentieth of the power of a similar cellular-based device — and be used at one-fiftieth the operating costs. This, too, using existing Bluetooth hardware, with no need to replace existing radio modules.

Two satellites, granted, is a somewhat limited constellation. Following its first successful Earth-to-space Bluetooth link, the company has stated that it will focus on increasing the number of satellites in orbit in order to boost capacity and increase coverage — and has opened a waitlist for those interested in experimenting with its official developer’s kit.

Separately,  Life360, a family connection and safety company, has announced a signed non-binding letter of intent with Hubble Network to become the exclusive consumer application of their groundbreaking satellite Bluetooth technology. Through this strategic partnership, Life360 will leverage Hubble’s global satellite infrastructure and Life360’s global network of over 66 million smartphones to introduce “Find with Life360,” a global location-tracking network. Hubble’s breakthrough achievement of connecting Bluetooth devices to a satellite tracking network avoids previous limitations of Bluetooth location-tracking devices. Find with Life360 has the potential to herald a new era in location tracking and surpass the finding network capabilities of Apple and Google.

References:

https://hubblenetwork.com/

https://www.hackster.io/news/hubble-network-beats-the-doubters-makes-its-first-earth-to-space-bluetooth-satellite-connection-1d05f8971283

https://www.prweb.com/releases/hubble-network-achieves-first-ever-bluetooth-connection-to-space-302134952.html

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/life360-partners-with-hubble-network-to-build-global-location-tracking-network-aiming-to-leapfrog-apple-and-google-302143503.html

Part-2: Unleashing Network Potentials: Current State and Future Possibilities with AI/ML

By Vinay Tripathi with Ajay Lotan Thakur

Introduction

In the dynamic realm of networking, AI/ML has emerged as a transformative force to reshape the networking world by making it more secure, reliable, efficient and optimized. In this blog we will dive into characteristics, possibilities, use cases and challenges of AI/ML in the networking.

About AI and ML

Definitions of AL/ML

AI and ML are often used interchangeably, but there are some key differences between the two.

  • AI is the ability of machines to perform tasks that would normally require human intelligence, such as understanding natural language, recognizing objects, and making decisions.
  • ML is a subfield of AI that allows machines to learn from data and improve their performance over time.
  • DL = Uses neural networks for complex structured models and greater insights.

Types of AI/ML

AI/ML encompass a wide range of techniques and algorithms that can be used to solve a variety of problems. In the context of networks, AI/ML technologies can be broadly categorized into the following types:

Key Points:

  • AI/ML taxonomy is continuously evolving due to industry growth and various methodologies and algorithms.
  • The choice of AI/ML algorithm significantly influences business outcomes, including training time, prediction accuracy, and resource usage.
  • The selection of algorithms depends on the type and volume of available data for a specific use case.

Popular ML Types:

  • Supervised/Unsupervised: When available data is simple or significant pre-processing has resulted in high data quality:
  • Neural Networks and Deep Learning: When you have substantial amounts of unstructured/structured data or unclear features these may offer superior accuracy over Classical ML methods
  • AutoML: When you need to streamline machine learning model development, especially with limited expertise, time, or resources.
  • NLP: When tasks involve text or language data and require automation, understanding, or generation of natural language content.
  • Reinforcement learning: Suitable when you need to train agents to make sequential decisions in dynamic environments, optimizing for long-term rewards, and when there is a need for autonomous decision-making, such as in robotics, game playing, or autonomous systems.

    Figure-1: Hierarchy of AI, ML and DL

Applications of AI/ML

AI and ML technologies provide a diverse array of applications in networks, encompassing security, engineering, capacity planning, and operations. These technologies have the capability to augment network security, optimize network design and performance, forecast traffic demand, and automate network tasks. This leads to enhanced efficiency, reliability, and overall network performance. Here are some specific examples:

Network Security

  • Intrusion Detection System (IDS): AI-powered IDS can detect and respond to cyberattacks in real-time, providing a more robust defense against threats.
  • Thread Detection and Prevention (TDP): AI can analyze network traffic to identify and prevent threats before they can cause damage.
  • Anomaly Detection: AI can detect deviations from normal network behavior, indicating potential security incidents.

Network Engineering

  • Quality of Service (QoS): AI can optimize network resources to ensure consistent and reliable performance for critical applications.
  • Routing and Traffic Management: AI can optimize routing decisions and manage traffic flow to avoid congestion and improve network performance.
  • Optimized Traffic Flow: AI can analyze traffic patterns and make real-time adjustments to optimize traffic flow, reducing latency and improving overall network performance.
  • Load Balancing: AI can distribute traffic across multiple servers or network links to balance the load and prevent bottlenecks.

Network Capacity Planning

  • Improved Capacity Forecasting: AI can analyze historical data and predict future traffic demand, enabling network operators to plan for future capacity needs.
  • Efficient Uses of Resources: AI can identify and allocate network resources more efficiently, reducing costs and improving network performance.

Network Maintenance, Troubleshooting, Operations and Monitoring

  • Real-time Monitoring: AI can continuously monitor network performance and identify potential issues before they cause outages or disruptions.
  • Quicker Resolutions of Vendor/Hardware Issues: AI can diagnose and resolve vendor and hardware issues more quickly, minimizing downtime.
  • Faster Root Cause Analysis: AI can analyze large amounts of data to identify the root cause of network issues, enabling faster resolution.
  • Quick Mitigations of Network Issues: AI can automatically implement mitigations for network issues, reducing the impact on users and applications.

AI/ML Based Network in Action

The seamless integration of AI/ML components at various levels of the network (edge, core, management, etc.) enhances its reliability, efficiency, and security by optimizing performance and safeguarding against vulnerabilities.

The diagram illustrates a practical application of AI/ML within one of the extensive networks.

Figure-2: AI/ML in action in a cloud network

Trends in AI/ML

AI/ML are revolutionizing the field of networks. These technologies are being used to improve the performance, security, and reliability of networks.

Here are some of the key trends in AI/ML for networks:

  1. Simplify and scale data operations.

    AI/ML can be used to automate and simplify many of the tasks involved in managing and analyzing network data. This can free up network administrators to focus on more strategic tasks.

  2. Increase accuracy of forecasts.

    AI/ML can be used to predict network traffic patterns, identify potential problems, and plan for future capacity needs. This can help organizations to avoid costly downtime and improve the quality of service for their users.

  3. Decrease time to market.

    AI/ML can be used to automate the process of designing, deploying, and managing new network services. This can help organizations to bring new products and services to market faster.

  4. Enable insights on otherwise unusable data

    AI/ML can be used to extract insights from network data that would otherwise be too complex or voluminous to analyze manually. This can help organizations to identify security threats, optimize network performance, and improve customer experience.

    Figure-3: Trends in ML

AI/ML Use Cases

The introduction of AI/ML use cases in network functions has revolutionized the field of networking. AI/ML technologies are being leveraged to enhance network security, optimize network design and performance, anticipate traffic demand, and automate network tasks. This integration leads to improved efficiency, reliability, and overall network performance.

Examples of the popular use cases of AI/ML in large networks.

Figure-4: AI/ML Use Case: Hardware Failure Prediction

Figure-5: AI/ML Use Case: Network Demand Forecasting

ML vs Non-ML Networks

The comparison of ML-based and non-ML-based networks provides valuable insights into the advantages and limitations of each approach. By examining the key aspects such as scalability, flexibility, accuracy, and security, organizations can make informed decisions about the most suitable solution for their specific networking needs. This comparison can guide network engineers, architects, and decision-makers in selecting the optimal approach to meet their performance, efficiency, and security requirements.

A comparison between ML-based and non-ML-based solutions is provided in the followingtable:

Figure-6: Comparison of ML and non-ML solutions

Reasons Not to Use AI/ML

While AI/ML technologies offer significant benefits for networks, there are certain scenarios where their application may not be suitable or feasible. Several factors, such as data availability, use case definition, cost considerations, the need for customized models, and the effectiveness of existing automation, can influence the decision to refrain from using AI/ML in networks. Understanding the limitations and potential drawbacks of AI/ML is crucial for organizations to make informed choices about the most appropriate approach for their specific networking needs.

  1. Not enough data sets to train the model:
    • AI/ML models require large amounts of high-quality data to train effectively. In the context of networks, it may be challenging to collect and prepare sufficient data. Factors such as network size, traffic patterns, and security considerations can make data collection a complex and time-consuming process.
    • The lack of adequate data can lead to models that are not well-generalized and may not perform well in real-world scenarios.
  2. Use case is not defined well:
    • AI/ML models are designed to solve specific problems or achieve specific goals. If the use case for AI/ML in networks is not clearly defined, it can be difficult to develop a model that effectively addresses the desired outcomes.
    • A poorly defined use case can lead to misalignment between the model’s capabilities and the actual requirements of the network.
  3. High cost is a problem:
    • Implementing AI/ML solutions in networks can be expensive. Factors such as hardware requirements, software licenses, and the cost of hiring skilled professionals contribute to the overall cost.
    • Organizations need to carefully evaluate the cost-benefit analysis before investing in AI/ML for their networks. In some cases, the cost of deploying and maintaining an AI/ML solution may outweigh the potential benefits.
  4. Customized AI/ML model is required:
    • Off-the-shelf AI/ML solutions may not always be suitable for specific network scenarios. Organizations may require customized models that are tailored to their unique requirements.
    • Developing customized AI/ML models requires specialized expertise and resources, which can further increase the cost and complexity of the project.
  5. Existing automation is already serving the requirement:
    • Many networks already have existing automation solutions in place, such as network management systems (NMS) and configuration management tools. These solutions provide a range of automation capabilities that may already be sufficient for the organization’s needs.
    • Implementing AI/ML in such scenarios may not offer significant additional benefits or may require a substantial investment to achieve incremental improvements.

AI/ML Challenges in Networks

AI/ML in networks has benefits but also challenges. Complexity arises from numerous interconnected components and interactions, which AI/ML further complicates. Data limitations and algorithmic bias are additional concerns. Regulatory compliance adds another layer of complexity. Some of the challenges are described in detail below:

Complexity

  • As networks become increasingly complex, it can be difficult to troubleshoot issues that arise. This is due to the large number of interconnected components and the complex interactions between them.
  • For example, a problem with a single router can have a cascading effect on the entire network, making it difficult to identify the root cause of the issue.
  • Additionally, the use of AI and ML in networks can further increase complexity by introducing new layers of abstraction and decision-making.

Data Requirements

  • AI and ML algorithms require large amounts of data to train and operate effectively. This can be a challenge for networks, as they may not have access to sufficient data to train their models.
  • For example, a network security system may not have enough data on recent attacks to train a model to detect and prevent future attacks.
  • Additionally, the data that is available may be biased or incomplete, which can lead to inaccurate or unfair models.

Algorithmic Bias

  • AI and ML algorithms can be biased, which can lead to unfair or discriminatory outcomes. This is because the algorithms are trained on data that may contain biases, such as racial or gender bias.
  • For example, a facial recognition system may be biased towards certain ethnicities, leading to false identifications or denials of service.
  • It is important to address algorithmic bias in networks to ensure that AI and ML are used in a fair and responsible manner.

Regulatory Compliances

  • Networks are subject to a variety of regulatory compliance requirements, such as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA).
  • These regulations impose strict requirements on how data is collected, stored, and used.
  • AI and ML can add additional complexity to compliance, as they can introduce new data processing and decision-making processes.
  • Organizations need to carefully consider the regulatory implications of using AI and ML in networks to ensure that they are compliant with all applicable regulations.

Ethical Concerns

  • The use of AI and ML in networks raises several ethical concerns, such as the misuse of data and job replacement.
  • For example, AI-powered surveillance systems could be used to track and monitor people without their consent, raising concerns about privacy and civil liberties.
  • Additionally, AI and ML could lead to job automation, which could displace workers and have a negative impact on the economy.
  • It is important to consider the ethical implications of using AI and ML in networks to ensure that they are used in a responsible and ethical manner.

Networks: AI/ML Benefits

In today’s digital world, networks are becoming increasingly complex and interconnected. To manage and operate these networks effectively, organizations are turning to AI/ML. AI/ML can automate repetitive tasks, identify, and mitigate network threats, and optimize network performance. AI/ML can also help organizations to gain more insights from their network data, which can lead to better decision-making and improved business outcomes. Some of the top benefits are described below:

Lower Cost:

  • Automated tasks: AI/ML can automate repetitive and time-consuming network tasks, such as configuration, monitoring, and troubleshooting. This can free up staff to focus on more strategic initiatives.
  • Efficient customer support: AI/ML-powered chatbots and virtual assistants can provide 24/7 customer support, answering common questions and resolving simple issues. This can reduce the need for human customer support representatives, saving costs.
  • Improved performance: AI/ML can be used to optimize network performance by identifying and resolving bottlenecks and inefficiencies. This can lead to reduced latency, improved throughput, and better overall network performance while minimizing the network operation cost.

Reduced Network Risk:

  • Resilient network: AI/ML can be used to create more resilient networks that are better able to withstand outages and attacks. This can be done by predicting and preventing network failures, and by quickly identifying and resolving issues.
  • Identify and mitigate threats: AI/ML can be used to detect and mitigate network threats, such as malware, DDoS attacks, and phishing attempts. This can help to protect sensitive data and systems from being compromised.
  • Accurate network trends and forecast: AI/ML can be used to analyze network data to identify trends and forecast future needs. This information can be used to make informed decisions about network planning and investment.
  • Network outage prediction: AI/ML can be used to predict network outages before they occur. This can help to prevent downtime and lost productivity.

More Revenue:

  • Enhanced network and capacity planning: AI/ML can be used to optimize network and capacity planning, ensuring that the network has the resources it needs to meet current and future demands. This can help to avoid costly over-provisioning or under-provisioning of network resources.
  • Faster time to market: AI/ML can help to accelerate time to market for new network services and applications. This can be done by automating the testing and deployment process, and by identifying and resolving potential issues early on.
  • Better customer experience: AI/ML can be used to improve the customer experience by providing personalized and proactive support. This can lead to increased customer satisfaction and loyalty.

Networks: AI/ML Innovation Catalysts

The convergence of AI/ML with networks is revolutionizing various industries. Here are some key factors driving this transformation:

  1. Increase in Data/Compute and Storage:
    • The proliferation of IoT devices has led to an exponential growth in data generation, fueling AI/ML innovation.
    • High-performance computing (HPC) clusters and cloud platforms provide the necessary compute and storage resources for complex AI/ML models.
  2. Edge Computing:
    • Edge computing brings AI/ML capabilities closer to data sources, enabling real-time decision-making.
    • Edge devices, such as sensors and gateways, collect and process data locally, reducing latency and bandwidth requirements.
  3. Cloud Infrastructure:
    • Cloud platforms offer scalable and elastic infrastructure for deploying and managing AI/ML workloads.
    • Cloud-based AI/ML services provide pre-built tools and frameworks for developers, accelerating the development and deployment of AI/ML applications.
  4. Increase in Devices Running AI:
    • Smartphones, smart home devices, and autonomous vehicles are increasingly equipped with AI capabilities.
    • These devices generate vast amounts of data and use AI to perform tasks such as image recognition, natural language processing, and predictive analytics.
  5. Pre-trained Models:
    • Pre-trained models, such as open-source BERT and ResNet, provide a starting point for developing custom AI models.
    • These models have been trained on large datasets and can be fine-tuned for specific tasks, reducing the time and resources required for model development.
  6. Human and AI Cooperation:
    • AI/ML is augmenting human capabilities, enabling collaboration between humans and machines.
    • Human-AI teams can leverage their respective strengths to solve complex problems and make better decisions.

Conclusion

AI and ML are revolutionizing the field of networking, bringing efficiency, automation, and significant performance improvements. As networks continue to grow and complexity, traditional management methods are becoming increasingly ineffective. AI and ML offer a powerful solution by enabling networks to self-configure, self-optimize, and self-heal, leading to a more agile, resilient, and cost-effective network infrastructure. The use of AI and ML in networks is still in its early stages, but it has the potential to transform the way networks are designed, built, and operated. As AI and ML technologies continue to evolve, we can expect to see even more innovative applications that will further unleash the potential of networks.

References

  1. https://cloud.google.com/blog/products/infrastructure/google-network-infrastructure-investments
  2. https://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/executive-perspectives/ai-ml-overview-of-industry-trends.html

**** This blog post was written with the assistance of Google’s Gemini. The AI was used to generate initial draft, rephrasing, and brainstorming, which I then refined, edited, and expanded upon.

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