Ericsson expects RAN market to be flat with 5G build-out still in its early days; U.S. cellular industry growth to slow in 2023
Ericsson is planning for a flat RAN market and is structuring its cost base and operations accordingly. Underlying the flat market is a technology shift to 5G from earlier generation. 5G build-out is still in its early days with only about 20% of all base station sites outside China installed with 5G mid-band. Because 5G is still in its early days, vendors like Ericsson and Nokia are seeing lower margins. Therefore, they are relying more heavily on patent royalties to boost profits. Because 5G is still in its early days, vendors like Ericsson and Nokia are seeing lower margins. Therefore, they are relying more heavily on patent royalties to boost profits.
Given the rapid increase in network traffic levels, operators’ investment in performance and capacity is expected to remain robust. The 5G RAN market is expected to grow by over 11% per annum over the next three years, with potential further upside from areas such as Fixed Wireless Access, Enterprise connectivity, XR and Mission Critical Services (which require URLLC which meets performance requirements in ITU M.2410).
In Networks, Ericsson expects to expand its global footprint and enhance gross income through continued investments in technology for performance and cost leadership and, in addition, improve productivity and capital efficiency across the supply chain. In particular the Segment will continue investing in enhanced portfolio energy performance, enabled by Ericsson Silicon and innovating next-generation open architecture, such as Cloud RAN – key areas of strategic importance for its operator customers. Cloud RAN also offers potential in the enterprise segment.
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Separately, Morgan Stanley analysts forecast that the U.S. wireless industry growth will slow in 2023.
“Carriers could move to cut pricing in order to maintain their subscriber bases,” the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a report to investors issued Thursday. That could reduce the operators’ ability to make money, they noted. “A continued adoption of premium plans could also support wireless service revenue growth,” they added.
Morgan Stanley analysts expect the U.S. wireless industry – including Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile, Dish Network and cable companies like Comcast and Charter Communications – to collectively add 8.7 million new postpaid phone customers during 2023. That’s down only slightly from 8.9 million during 2022 and just below the record 10 million that providers collectively added over the course of 2021.
“We see the biggest slowdown in 2023 adds at AT&T, while Verizon could grow adds modestly yoy [year over year] off a low base, and T-Mobile can do slightly better given this year saw the impact of the Sprint network shutdown,” the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote. “We will be watching the growing deployment of eSIM technology to see if it opens the door to higher switching activity, while it should also help carriers lower costs through an easier activation process.”
References:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ericsson-capital-markets-day-2022-301704231.html
https://telecoms.com/519003/ericsson-expects-ran-market-growth-to-be-flat-for-years/
T-Mobile and Cisco launch cloud native 5G core gateway
T-Mobile US announced today that it has collaborated with Cisco to launch a first-of-its kind cloud native 5G core gateway. T-Mobile has moved all of its 5G and 4G traffic to the new cloud native converged core which provides customers with more than a 10% improvement in speeds and lower latency. The new core gateway also allows T-Mobile to more quickly and easily test and deliver new 5G and IoT services, like network slicing and Voice over 5G (VoNR) thereby expediting time to market.
The T-Mobile US 5G SA core is based on Cisco’s cloud-native control plane that uses Kubernetes to orchestrate containers running on bare metal. The companies said this frees up more than 20% of the CPU cores.
It also uses Cisco’s 8000 Series routers, 5G and 4G LTE packet core gateways, its Unified Computing System (UCS) platform, and Cisco’s Nexus 9000 Series Switches that run the vendor’s Network Services Orchestrator for full-stack automation.
“T-Mobile customers already have access to the largest, most powerful 5G network in the country, and we’re innovating every day to supercharge their experience even further,” said Delan Beah, Senior Vice President of Core Network and Services Engineering at T-Mobile. “This cloud native core gateway takes our network to new heights, allowing us to push 5G forward by delivering next-level performance for consumers and businesses nationwide while setting the stage for new applications enabled by next-gen networks.”
With a fully automated converged core gateway, T-Mobile can simplify network functions across the cloud, edge and data centers to significantly reduce operational life cycle management. The increased efficiency is an immediate benefit for customers, providing them with even faster speeds. The new core is also more distributed than ever before, leading to lower latency and advancing capabilities like edge computing.
“Our strategic relationship with T-Mobile is rooted in co-innovation, with a shared vision to establish best practices for 5G and the Internet for the Future,” said Masum Mir, Senior Vice President and General Manager, Cisco Networking Provider Mobility. “This is the type of network every operator aspires to. It will support the most advanced 5G applications for consumers and businesses today and enables T-Mobile to test and deliver new and emerging 5G and IoT applications with simplicity at scale.”
The fully automated converged core architecture is based on Cisco’s cloud native control plane, optimized with Kubernetes orchestrated containers on bare metal, freeing up over 20% of the CPU (Central Processing Unit) cores. The converged core solution uses a broad mix of Cisco’s flagship networking solutions including the Cisco 8000 Series routers, 5G and 4G packet core gateways, Cisco Unified Computing System (UCS), and Cisco Nexus 9000 Series Switches with Cisco Network Services Orchestrator for full stack automation.
T-Mobile is the U.S. leader in 5G, delivering the country’s largest, fastest and most reliable 5G network. The Un-carrier’s Extended Range 5G covers 323 million people across 1.9 million square miles – more than AT&T and Verizon combined. 260 million people nationwide are covered by T-Mobile’s super-fast Ultra Capacity 5G, and T-Mobile plans to reach 300 million people with Ultra Capacity next year.
For more information on T-Mobile’s network, visit: https://www.t-mobile.com/coverage/4g-lte-5g-networks.
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Cisco was part of T-Mobile US’ initial 5G SA core launch in 2020. This included the user plane, session management, and policy control functions. Those network functions run on Cisco servers, switching, and its virtualization orchestration stack.
This 5G work built on Cisco providing its packet gateway for T-Mobile’s 4G LTE mobile core, later adding its evolved packet core (EPC), and eventually virtualized the operator’s entire packet core in 2017. T-Mobile was also the first major operator to introduce Cisco’s 4G control and user plane separation (CUPS) in the EPC at production scale in 2018.
Cisco has also been core to 5G SA work by operators like Dish Network and Rakuten Mobile
References:
https://www.sdxcentral.com/articles/news/t-mobile-selects-cisco-for-cloud-native-5g-core/2022/12/
Comcast demos 10Gb/sec full duplex with DOCSIS 4.0; TDS deploys symmetrical 8Gb/sec service
Comcast announced in a press release it successfully tested a symmetrical multi-gigabit DOCSIS 4.0 connection on its live network, taking a major step toward “offering 10G-enabled services” in the second half of 2023. In Philadelphia, where Comcast is headquartered, it connected service at an undisclosed business location using multiple cable modems and a DOCSIS 4.0-enabled 10G node. If you’re wondering what 10G means, the answer is — more than 5G. As we noted in 2019, the cable industry rolled out its marketing term just in time to have something that’s twice as many Gb/sec as 5G wireless has.
DOCSIS 4.0 technology should enable download speeds of up to 10Gbps with 6Gbps uploads, and Comcast said a lab test in January achieved more than 4Gbps speed in both directions.
Earlier this year, Comcast announced it was working on rolling out multi-gig Internet speeds to more than 50 million residences and businesses in the U.S. by the end of 2025. The company planned on deploying 2Gbps speeds to 34 cities by the end of this month and has also given a slight bump to download speed on internet service in many areas.
The advantage of 10G tech is that it should make multi-gig speeds available for both downloads and uploads (currently, Comcast’s gigabit plans include upload speeds of just 200Mbps), just as it is with fiber optic internet connections. However, for anyone considering upgrading, we should note that you will probably need another new cable modem.
Ideally, this will increase speeds for those in places where fiber isn’t available, especially non-metropolitan areas. And in places that have competition, it measures closer against rivals that deliver fiber services, such as Verizon, AT&T, Google, and Frontier Communications, which are already offering some customers symmetrical multi-gigabit connections.
“We started this year with the announcement of our world-first test of 10G modem technology capable of delivering multi-gig speeds to homes and, as of today, 10G is a reality with the potential to transform and evolve the Internet as we know it,” said Elad Nafshi, EVP and Chief Network Officer at Comcast Cable. “It’s been an incredible year of progress, and we look forward to continuing to refine and harden our 10G technology as we work to make this service—and all its incredible benefits—available to all customers in the years ahead.”
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Separately, TDS Telecom [1.] said its new symmetrical 8Gb/sec (gig) service is already available in more than 75 of its fiber markets and runs $295 per month. While most U.S. operators [2.] are sticking with 2-gig as their top tier product for now, a handful of others have already pushed further into multi-gig territory. AT&T and Ziply Fiber, for instance, both offer residential plans providing up to 5 Gbps. And fewer still have gone beyond that. Lumen Technologies introduced an 8-gig tier for its Quantum Fiber service in August and Google Fiber has announced plans to trot out 5-gig and 8-gig plans in early 2023. Lumen’s service costs $300 per month.
Note 1. TDS Telecom offers internet service across 31 states with the greatest coverage in Wisconsin, Tennessee, and Utah.
Note 2. TDS is competing directly against AT&T, Comcast, Consolidated Communications and Lumen in the territory it serves.
While TDS in a press release pitched the 8-gig product as suitable for power users such as gamers and content creators, an operator representative told Fierce Telecom it doesn’t initially expect significant uptake of the plan. Instead, such offerings are tools in a marketing war being waged across the broadband industry.
Wire 3 offers a 10-gig service to customers in Florida, and Tennessee’s EPB and also provides a 25-gig service. However, it is not likely that consumers need those kinds of speeds currently.
On TDS’s Q3 2022 earnings call, TDS CFO Michelle Brukwicki stated its 1-gig and 2-gig plans are “important tools that will allow us to defend and win new customers.” She added nearly a quarter of new customers are taking its 1-gig service where it is available and its faster, higher-APRU tiers helped it boost residential broadband revenue in the quarter. However, TDS expects to miss 2022 fiber build target.
References:
https://corporate.comcast.com/press/releases/comcast-live-10g-connection-4-gig-symmetrical-speeds
https://www.theverge.com/2022/12/12/23505779/comcast-multi-gigabit-10g-docsis-40-cable-fiber-isp
https://www.fiercetelecom.com/broadband/tds-cranks-fiber-speeds-8-gbps
OneWeb, Jio Space Tech and Starlink have applied for licenses to launch satellite-based broadband internet in India
On December 13th, the chairman of Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI), PD Vaghela, said that India will be the first country in the world to auction spectrum for satellite communications. Noting that India’s telecom regulator (DoT was working on the matter, he added that TRAI will soon come out with ‘some sort of a model’ for the auction of space spectrum.
Addressing the Broadband India Forum summit, Vaghela said that TRAI has received a reference from the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) on the allocation of the spectrum and other allied aspects. He added that TRAI plans to streamline the process of seeking permissions from multiple ministries. In this regard, the regulator will make recommendations to the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting, Communications and the Ministry of Space to ensure ease of doing business in the sector. “Any system that we will be bringing is to actually encourage and promote investment in the sector, and not increase any burden,” added Vaghela.
Responding to questions about the status of the consultation paper on the spectrum action for satellite communication, TRAI chief said that the telecom authority was deliberating with experts and regulators globally to arrive at a suitable framework. The paper could see the light of the day only after these discussions are over. He reiterated that nanosatellites coupled with other emerging technologies would drive innovation and bridge the digital divide.
“Nanosatellites and satellite Internet of Things (IoT) would drive the next generation of technology and such innovations are expected to enable connectivity across industries and empower it and the upcoming 6G capability. Innovations in satellite ground stations, orbital services, payloads, operational systems and artificial intelligence would enable satellites to perform more complex functions,” the chairman said.
TRAI chairman’s comments have come at a time when the satellite communications arena is witnessing rapid developments. In the recently released Telecommunications Bill, 2022, the government has sought to extend the scope of telecommunication services to include satellite-based communication services.
Alongside, the center is also looking at new technologies to increase the penetration of the internet. Recently, Minister of State for Electronics and Information Technology Rajeev Chandrasekhar said that satellite communications would play a key role in delivering internet services to 1.2 Bn Indians by 2025-26.
The government recently also announced a slew of reforms for the satcom space. The center has relaxed norms for obtaining the Global Mobile Personal Communication by Satellite (GMPCS) license, which is mandatory to operate as a Satcom player in India.
So far, usual telecom players are looking to grab a pie of this burgeoning space. In the race are Airtel-backed OneWeb and Jio Space Tech. Besides, Elon Musk‘s Starlink has also applied for a license to launch satellite-based broadband in India.
As per a report, the global demand for satellite applications is expected to soar to $7 Bn by 2031. On similar lines, the overarching Indian space industry is projected to grow to $13 Bn by 2025, with the satellite launch services segment expected to garner the fastest growth.
TRAI Chairman PD Vaghela addressing Broadband India Forum
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In summary:
- TRAI is said to have already received a reference from DoT for the auction of the spectrum
- TRAI will send recommendations to multiple ministries to streamline the process of permissions and enhance ease of doing business
- The government targets to deliver internet services to 1.2 B India residents by 2025-26
References:
https://inc42.com/buzz/india-to-be-first-country-to-auction-satcom-spectrum-trai-chairman/
India creates 6G Technology Innovation Group without resolving crucial telecom issues
Telecoms.com Survey Report assesses telecom industry in 2022 and outlook for 2023
Telecoms.com newly published survey report assesses the telecom industry’s performance over this year, as well as the views of the professionals participating in the survey on the outlook of 2023 and beyond. A general sense of optimism and achievement comes through as 63% of respondents believe that the business performance of telecoms in 2022 has been ‘excellent’ or ‘good’ while also reaching consensus on a positive outlook for next year.
Here are some of the key findings from the survey:
- More than two thirds view the industry’s business outlook for 2023 as positive, including about a third that believe the outlook to be very positive.
- Around two out of three respondents believe the industry’s performance in 2022 has been either excellent or good
- The majority of respondents believe 5G standalone (SA) core network will have a materially favorable effect on the adoption of 5G, but there remain many obstacles for deployment.
- Around one in three respondents report they have many service concepts to monetise as their capabilities evolve, but they find configuration and testing of services challenging.
- One in four respondents will upgrade existing BSS and charging stack to support new use cases for enterprise and B2B2X.
- Legacy infrastructure is considered the largest barrier to automated zero-touch services.
- Most respondents consider video delivery key for their telecom businesses, including more than a third who consider it a top priority.
- Healthcare and connected vehicles are the top two most interesting IoT use-cases.
- Nearly two thirds of respondents either plan to or have already deployed Open RAN commercially.
The survey report states that Security, Digital Transformation, IoT, and Broadband will be the top four areas for telecom businesses in 2023. 5G standalone core is identified as having a materially positive impact on the wider adoption of 5G. Nonetheless, high costs in network equipment and network deployment are still seen as the biggest key challenge for deploying standalone 5G.
Other challenges identified with broadband network and service automation include legacy infrastructure and siloed operations across technologies. Lack of skills and resources is also flagged as a key barrier to the deployment of IoT and also Open RAN technologies.
In terms of emerging services and technologies, Metaverse is identified with 60% as the most hyped emerging technology while more than half of respondents also view it as ‘not commercially interesting’. Meanwhile, the survey reports that more than four in five telecom professionals find video delivery as key for telecom businesses, including a third who consider it ‘top priority’.
References:
2022 has been a great year for telecoms, industry professionals say
Microsoft acquires Lumenisity – hollow core fiber high speed/low latency leader
Executive Summary:
Microsoft announced it has acquired Lumenisity® Limited, a leader in next-generation hollow core fiber (HCF) solutions. Lumenisity’s innovative and industry-leading HCF product can enable fast, reliable and secure networking for global, enterprise and large-scale organizations.
The acquisition will expand Microsoft’s ability to further optimize its global cloud infrastructure and serve Microsoft’s Cloud Platform and Services customers with strict latency and security requirements. The technology can provide benefits across a broad range of industries including healthcare, financial services, manufacturing, retail and government.
Organizations within these sectors could see significant benefit from HCF solutions as they rely on networks and datacenters that require high-speed transactions, enhanced security, increased bandwidth and high-capacity communications. For the public sector, HCF could provide enhanced security and intrusion detection for federal and local governments across the globe. In healthcare, because HCF can accommodate the size and volume of large data sets, it could help accelerate medical image retrieval, facilitating providers’ ability to ingest, persist and share medical imaging data in the cloud. And with the rise of the digital economy, HCF could help international financial institutions seeking fast, secure transactions across a broad geographic region.
Types of Hollow Core Fiber:
Various types of hollow-core photonic bandgap fibers:
(a) Photonic crystal fiber featuring small hollow core surrounded by a periodic array of large air holes.
(b) Microstructured fiber featuring medium-sized hollow core surrounded by several rings of small air holes separated by nano-size bridges.
(c) Bragg fiber featuring large hollow core surrounded by a periodic sequence of high and low refractive index layers
Lumenisity HCF benefits:
Lumenisity’s hollow core fiber technology replaces the standard glass core in a fiber cable with an air-filled chamber. According to Microsoft, light travels through air 47% faster than glass. Lumenisity’s next generation of HCF uses a proprietary design where light propagates in an air core, which has significant advantages over traditional cable built with a solid core of glass, including:
- Increased overall speed and lower latency as light travels through HCF 47% faster than standard silica glass.[1]
- Enhanced security and intrusion detection due to Lumenisity’s innovative inner structure.
- Lower costs, increased bandwidth and enhanced network quality due to elimination of fiber nonlinearities and broader spectrum.
- Potential for ultra-low signal loss enabling deployment over longer distances without repeaters.
Lumenisity was formed in 2017 as a spinoff from the world-renowned Optoelectronics Research Centre (ORC) at the University of Southampton to commercialize breakthroughs in the development of hollow core optical fiber. In 2021 and 2022, the company won the Best Fibre Component Product for their NANF® CoreSmart® HCF cable in the European Conference on Optical Communication (ECOC) Exhibition Industry Awards. As part of the Lumenisity acquisition, Microsoft plans to utilize the organization’s technology and team of industry-leading experts to accelerate innovations in networking and infrastructure.
Lumenisity said: “We are proud to be acquired by a company with a shared vision that will accelerate our progress in the hollow-core space. This is the end of the beginning, and we are excited to start our new chapter as part of Microsoft to fulfill this technology’s full potential and continue our pursuit of unlocking new capabilities in communication networks.”
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Analysis:
The purchase is also noteworthy in light of Microsoft’s other recent acquisitions in the telecommunications sector, which include Affirmed Networks, Metaswitch Networks and AT&T’s core network operations (including 5G SA Core Network).
Microsoft isn’t the only company interested in HCF technology and Lumenisity. Both BT in the UK and Comcast in the US have tested Lumenisity’s offerings.
Comcast announced in April it was able to support speeds in the range of 10 Gbit/s to 400 Gbit/s over a 40km “hybrid” connection in Philadelphia that utilized legacy fiber and the new hollow core fiber. Comcast worked with Lumenisity.
“As we continue to develop and deploy technology to deliver 10G, multigigabit performance to tens of millions of homes, hollow core fiber will help to ensure that the network powering those experiences is among the most advanced and highest performing in the world,” said Comcast networking chief Elad Nafshi in the release issued in April.
References:
https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/microsoft-acquires-hollow-core-fiber-firm-lumenisity
Comcast Deploys Advanced Hollowcore Fiber With Faster Speed, Lower Latency
Another Opinion: 5G Fails to Deliver on Promises and Potential
Introduction:
For many years now, this author has repeatedly stated that 5G would be the biggest train wreck in all of tech history. That is still the case. It’s primarily due to the lack of ITU standards (really only one- ITU M.2150) and 5G core network implementation specs (vs 5G network architecture) from 3GPP.
We’ve noted that the few 5G SA core networks deployed are all different with no interoperability or roaming between networks. I can’t emphasize enough that ALL 3GPP defined 5G functions and features (including security and network slicing) require a 5G SA core network. Yet most of the deployed 5G networks are NSA which use a 4G infrastructure for everything other than the RAN.
It also must be emphasized that the 5G URLLC Physical layer specified in ITU-R M.2150 does not meet the performance requirements in ITU-R M.2410 as the URLLC spec is based on 3GPP Release 15. Astonishingly, the 3GPP Release 16 work item “URLLC in the RAN” has yet to be completed, despite Release 16 being “frozen” in June 2020 (2 1/2 years ago). The official name of that Release 16 work item is “Physical Layer Enhancements for NR Ultra-Reliable and Low Latency Communication (URLLC)” with the latest spec version dated June 23, 2022. That work item is based on the outcome of the study items resulting in TR 38.824 and TR 38.825. It specifies PDCCH enhancements, UCI enhancements, PUSCH enhancements, enhanced inter UE TX prioritization/multiplexing and enhanced UL configured grant transmission.
Finally, revision 6 of ITU-R recommendation M.1036 on terrestrial 5G frequency arrangements (especially for mmWave), still has not been agreed upon by ITU-R WP5D. That has resulted in a “frequency free for all,” where each country is defining their own set of 5G mmWave frequencies which inhibits 5G end point device interoperability.
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In an article titled, 5G Market Growth, Mohamad Hashisho provides his view of why 5G has not lived up to its promise and potential.
Standalone 5G Is Yet to Breakout:
5G market growth still needs to feel as imposing as many imagined it. A technology created to replace previous generations still relies on their infrastructure. Standalone (SA) 5G is unrestricted by the limits of the prior generation of telecommunications technology because it does not rely on the already-existing 4G infrastructure. As a result, it can deliver the fast speeds and low latency that 5G networks have consistently promised. Clearly, standalone(SA) 5G is the way to go, so why do we not see effective implementation and marketing for it?
The numerous challenges businesses encounter while using SA are alluded to in the various telco comments about device availability, carrier aggregation, and infrastructure upgrades. The 5G New Radio system is connected to the current 4G core, the network’s command center, with older NSA. As its name suggests, SA sweeps this crutch aside and substitutes a new 5G core. But operators face several difficulties when they push it out, according to Brown. The first is the challenge of creating “cloud-native” systems, as they are known in the industry. Most operators now want to fully utilize containers, microservices, and other Internet-world technologies rather than simply virtualizing their networks. With these, networks risk being less efficient and easier to automate, and new services may take longer to launch. But the transition is proving to be challenging.
Overpromising, Yet to Deliver:
5G came out of the corner swinging. Huge promises were thrown around whenever the subject of 5g was discussed. It has been a while since 5G came to fruition, yet its market growth remain humble. Some might say that the bark was way more extensive than the bite. While some of these promises were delivered, they weren’t as grand as the ones yet to happen.
Speed was one of the main promises of 5G. And while some argue that this promise is fulfilled, others might say otherwise. Speeds are yet to reach speeds that can eclipse those of 4G. It is not only about speeds, though. It is about the availability of it. The high-speed services of 5G networks are only available in some places. Its been years and many regions are yet to receive proper 5G services. Simply put, a large portion of the dissatisfaction surrounding 5G can be attributed to the failure to fully deploy the infrastructure and the development of applications that fully utilize 5G.
5G of Tomorrow Struggles With Its Today:
5G is, without a doubt, the way to go for the future, but does its present state reflect that? Maybe. That is the issue. Years into its adoption, the answer should be decisive. Telcos might see potential in the maybes and work based on tomorrow’s potential. Consumers won’t be as patient. The consumers need the promised services now. You need to keep your customer base around with promises of the future. Especially when 4G LTE did the job well, really well.
Moreover, some areas in the US, not in struggling countries, have speeds slower than 4G LTE. Some 5G phones struggle to do the minimum tasks. Phones have to stick to specific chips capable of 5G support. But it is not about the small scale. Let’s think big, going back to the big promises 5G made. Smart cities, big-scale internet activities happening in real-time. IoT integration everywhere, controlling drones and robots from across the world. Automated cars as well, 5G was promised to deliver on all that, today and not tomorrow, but here we are.
Finally, the marketing was hit and miss, more miss, to be frank. Most consumers pay more to be 5G ready, while 5G still needs to be truly prepared. It’s hard to keep people interested when 4G is doing great. The only thing that the people needed was consistency, and sadly 5G is less consistent than some would hope.
Concluding Thoughts:
Lastly, innovation waits for none. This even includes 5G and 5G market growth. There are talks, even more than talks, about 6G. China is pushing for 6G supremacy, while Nokia and japan are starting the conversation about 7G. A major oversight that 5G missed was range. 5 G does great over small distances.
When the promises were massive in scale and global, you practically shot yourself in the foot. Time is running out for 5G, or is it pressuring 5G to live up to its potential?
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References:
https://insidetelecom.com/5g-market-growth/
https://www.itu.int/rec/R-REC-M.2150/en
https://www.itu.int/pub/R-REP-M.2410
https://www.itu.int/dms_pubrec/itu-r/rec/m/R-REC-M.1036-6-201910-I!!PDF-E.pdf
https://www.3gpp.org/specifications-technologies/releases/release-16
Omdia and Ericsson on telco transitioning to cloud native network functions (CNFs) and 5G SA core networks
Introduction:
Telco cloud has evolved from the much hyped (but commercially failed) NFV/Virtual Network Functions or VNFs and classical SDN architectures, to today’s more robust platforms for managing virtualized and cloud-native network functions that are tailored to the needs of telecom network workloads. This shift is bringing many new participants to the rapidly evolving telco cloud [1.] landscape.
Note 1. In this instance, “telco cloud” means running telco network functions, including 5G SA Core network on a public, private, or hybrid cloud platform. It does NOT imply that telcos are going to be cloud service providers (CSPs) and compete with Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, Oracle Cloud, IBM, Alibaba and other established CSPs. Telcos gave up on that years ago and sold most of their own data centers which they intended to make cloud resident.
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In its recent Telco Cloud Evolution Survey 2022, Omdia (owned by Informa) found that both public and private cloud technology specialists are shaping this evolution. In July 2022, Omdia surveyed 49 senior operations and IT decision makers among telecom operator. Their report reveals their top-of-mind priorities, optimism, and strategies for migrating network workloads to private and public cloud.
Transitioning from VNFs to CNFs:
The existing implementations of telco cloud mostly take the virtualization technologies used in datacenter environments and apply them to telco networks. Because telcos always demand “telco-grade” network infrastructure, this virtualization of network functions is supported through a standard reference architecture for management and network orchestration (MANO) defined by ETSI. The traditional framework was defined for virtual machines (VMs) and network functions which were to be packaged as software equivalents (called network appliances) to run as instances of VMs. Therefore, a network function can be visualized as a vertically integrated stack consisting of proprietary virtualization infrastructure management (often based on OpenStack) and software packages for network functions delivered as monolithic applications on top. No one likes to admit, but the reality is that NFV has been a colossal commercial failure.
The VNFs were “lift & shift” so were hard to configure, update, test, and scale. Despite AT&T’s much publicized work, VNFs did not help telcos to completely decouple applications from specific hardware requirements. The presence of highly specific infrastructure components makes resource pooling quite difficult. In essence, the efficiencies telcos expected from virtualization have not yet been delivered.
The move to cloud native network functions (CNFs) aims to solve this problem. The softwardized network functions are delivered as modern software applications that adhere to cloud native principles. What this means is applications are designed independent of the underlying hardware and platforms. Secondly, each functionality within an application is delivered as a separate microservice that can be patched independently. Kubernetes manages the deployment, scaling, and operations of these microservices that are hosted in containers.
5G Core leads telcos’ network workload containerization efforts:
The benefits of cloud-native are driving telcos to implement network functions as containerized workloads. This has been realized in cloud native 5G SA core networks (5G Core), the architecture of which is specified in 3GPP Release 16. A key finding from the Telco Cloud Evolution Survey 2022, was that over 60% of the survey respondents picked 5G core to be run as containerized workloads. The vendor ecosystem is maturing fast to support the expectations of telecom operators. Most leading network equipment providers (NEPs) have built 5G core as cloud-native applications.
Which network functions do/will you require to be packaged in containers? (Select all that apply):
This overwhelming response from the Omnia survey respondents is indicative of their growing interest in hosting network functions in cloud environments. However, there remain several important issues and questions telcos need to think about which we now examine:
The most challenging and frequent question is whether telcos should run 5G core functions and workloads in public cloud (Dish Network and AT&T) or in their own private cloud infrastructure (T-Mobile)? The choice is influenced by multiple factors including understanding the total cost of running network functions in public vs private cloud, complying with data regulatory requirements, resilience and scalability of infrastructure, maturity of cloud platforms and tools, as well as ease of management and orchestration of resources across distributed environments.
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Ericsson says the adoption of cloud-native technology and the new 5G SA Core network architecture will impact six strategic domains of a telco network, each of which must be addressed and resolved during the telco’s cloud native transformation journey: Cloud infrastructure, 5G Core, 5G voice, automation and orchestration, operations and life cycle management, and security.
In the latest version of Ericsson’s cloud-native 5G Core network guide (published December 6, 2022), the vendor has identified five key insights for service providers transitioning to a cloud native 5G SA core network:
- Cloud-native transformation is a catalyst for business transformation. Leading service providers make it clear they view the transformation to cloud-native as a driver for the modernization of the rest of their business. The company’s ability to bring new products and solutions to market faster should be regarded as being of equal importance to the network investment.
- Clear strategy and planning for cloud-native transformation is paramount. Each individual service provider’s cloud-native transformation journey is different and should be planned accordingly. The common theme is that the complexity of transforming at this scale needs to be recognized, and must not be underestimated. For maximum short-and-long-term impact tailored, effective migration strategies need to be in place in advance. This ensures that investment and execution in this area forms a valuable element of an overall transformation strategy and plan.
- Frontrunners will establish first-mover advantage. Time should be a key factor in driving the plans and strategies for change. Those who start this journey early will be leading the field when they’re able to deploy new functionalities and services. A common frontrunner approach is to start with a greenfield 5G Core deployment to try out ideas and concepts without disrupting the existing network. Additionally, evolving the network will be a dynamic process, and it is crucial to bring application developers and solution vendors into the ecosystem as early as possible to start seeing faster, smoother innovation.
- Major potential for architecture simplifications. The standardization of 5G Core has been based on architecture and learnings from IT. The telecom stack should be simplified by incorporating cloud native principles into it – for example separating the lifecycle management of the network functions from that of the underlying Kubernetes infrastructure. While any transformation needs to balance both new and legacy technologies, there are clear opportunities to simplify the network and operations further by smart investment decisions in three major areas. These are: simplified core application architecture (through dual-mode 5G Core architecture); simplified cloud-native infrastructure stack (through Kubernetes over bare-metal cloud infrastructure architecture); and Automation stack.
- Readiness to automate, operate and lifecycle manage the new platform must be accelerated. Processes requiring manual intervention will not be sufficient for the levels of service expected of cloud-native 5G Core. Network automation and continuous integration and deployment (CI/CD) of software will be crucial to launch services with agility or to add new networks capabilities in line with advancing business needs. Ericsson’s customer project experience repeatedly shows us another important aspect of this area of change, telling us that the evolution to cloud-native is more than a knowledge jump or a technological upgrade – it is also a mindset change. The best platform components will not deliver their full potential if teams are not ready to use them.
Monica Zethzon, Head of Solution Area Core Networks, Ericsson said: “The time is now. Service providers need to get ready for the cloud-native transformation that will enable them to reach the full potential of 5G and drive innovation, shaping the future of industries and society. We are proud to be at the forefront of this transformation together with our leading 5G service providers partners. With this guide series we want to share our knowledge and experiences with every service provider in the world to help them preparing for their successful journeys into 5G.”
Ericsson concludes, “The real winners of the 5G era will be the service providers who can transform their core networks to take full advantage of what 5G Standalone (SA) and cloud-native technologies can offer.”
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Omdia says another big challenge telcos need to manage is the fragmentation in cloud-native tools and approaches adopted by various technology providers. Again, this is nothing new as telcos have faced and lived through similar situations while evolving to the NFV era. However, the scale and complexity are much bigger as network functions will be distributed, multi-vendor, and deployed across multiple clouds. The need for addressing these gaps by adopting clearly defined specifications (there are no standards for cloud native 5G core) and open-source projects is of utmost importance.
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References:
Overcoming the challenges telcos face on their journey to containerized network functions
https://omdia.tech.informa.com/OM023495/Telco-Cloud-Evolution-Survey–2022
https://www.ericsson.com/en/news/2022/10/ericsson-publishes-the-cloud-native
https://www.t-mobile.com/news/network/t-mobile-lights-up-standalone-ultra-capacity-5g-nationwide
U.S. cable commercial revenue to grow 6% in 2022; Comcast Optical Network Architecture; HFC vs Fiber
U.S. cable multi-service operators (MSO’s) now generate more than $20 billion a year in business services revenues as the sector has emerged as one of the most profitable for the industry. However, cablecos face major challenges in maintaining their growth pace because of the economic meltdown wrought by COVID-19 and the emergence of new all-fiber and wireless competitors.
Cable business service revenues and customer growth each slowed during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, but they are clearly increasing again at the end of 2022.
U.S. cablecos commercial revenue growth is set to hit 6% in 2022, up from just 2% in 2020 and 3% in 2021, Alan Breznick, cable/video practice leader at Light Reading and a Heavy Reading analyst said in opening remarks at Light Reading’s 16th-annual CABLE NEXT-GEN BUSINESS SERVICES DIGITAL SYMPOSIUM, which focused on cable business services. [The source of that data is CMG/S&P.]
“There are signs of things pointing up again for the [cable] industry,” Breznick told the virtual audience.
U.S. cable is expected to bring in $20.5 billion in total commercial services revenues in 2022. Broken down by segment, small businesses (up to 19 employees), at $14.6 billion, will continue to represent the lion’s share, followed by medium businesses (20-99 employees), at $3.3 billion, and large businesses (100-plus employees), at $2.6 billion.
Commercial customer growth is estimated to reach 5% in 2022, down slightly from 2021 levels, but almost doubling the growth rate seen in 2020, when businesses across the country were hit by pandemic-driven shutdowns and lockdowns. Breznick estimates that US cable has about 5.5 million commercial customers.
Christopher Boone, senior VP of business services and emerging markets at Cable One, acknowledged that the commercial services market is returning to a faster rate of growth. However, businesses – and smaller businesses, particularly – are feeling labor and inflationary pressure as things continue to open up.
“Everything is expensive, including labor, and it’s hard to find [workers],” Boone explained. “For the small business owner, I think it’s pretty tough right now.”
During the earlier phases of the pandemic, Boone said Cable One didn’t emphasize new work-from-home products but instead focused on the broader customer experience. For example, Cable One put some customers on a seasonable pause for the first time, forgave early termination fees, issued credits and, where appropriate, helped customers move to lower-level services.
“We really threw the rulebook out and just said, do what it takes to take care of the customers,” he said. Even if some small businesses fail, the hope is that those entrepreneurs will return and choose Cable One again, remembering that the company did right by them when times were tough. Moving forward, he said Cable One will stick to its knitting and focus on connectivity rather than look to expand its product line for the business segment.
“I think our product menu needs to look like In-N-Out and not The Cheesecake Factory,” Boone said, noting that Cable One has opted to sit on the sidelines with product categories such as SD-WAN. “We’re pretty cautious in terms of new product launches … We feel that connectivity is really our sweet spot.”
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Comcast Business now serves, small, mid-range and enterprise-level customers with a variety of services including Metro Ethernet, wavelength services and Direct Internet Access. An important piece of the firm’s broader strategy revolves around a “unified optical network architecture” initiative that enables the MSO to serve a broad range of customer types, including those requiring that services are delivered to multiple locations in multiple markets.
Comcast’s unified optical architecture combines the access and metro optical networks using a set of items: network terminating equipment (NTE), a Wave Integration Shelf (WIS) and OTN (Optical Transport Network – ITU standard) “tails.”
The NTE is a small, optical shelf that today supports 10-Gig and 100-Gig up to a 400-Gig wavelength, and can reside at a single customer site or a data center. The WIS resides in the Comcast headend or hub, co-located with the metro optical line system, and serves as the demarcation point for commercial services. The OTN Tails are the key to connecting the access network to the metro network.
“We needed a way to provide commercial services to customers that were located in the access [network], but needed to reach the metro network to get to one of our routers for Internet access or possibly another segment of the access to connect their locations together,” Stephen Ruppa, senior principal engineer, optical architecture for Comcast’s TPX (technology, product and experience) unit, said this week during his keynote presentation.
The combining/meshing of the access and metro networks enables features such as remote management, performance monitoring data, alarming and a full “end-to-end circuit view,” including the customer sites themselves. “We use the same hardware, standards, configurations, designs, procurement, processes … in all the networks, regardless of the vendor,” Ruppa said.
And while there was once little need to connect two non-Comcast sites that resided in different areas or to provide connections greater than 10 Gbit/s, customer demands have changed. Ruppa said two products drove that demand and the desire to create the company’s unified optical architecture: wavelength services and high-bandwidth Metro Ethernet.
A modular, simplified, commoditized and easily repeatable architecture enables Comcast Business to “easily offer the next gen of 400-Gig wavelengths and Ethernet services with a very light lift,” he added.
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Ed Harstead, Lead Technology Strategist, Chief Technology Office, Fixed Networks, Nokia presented the final keynote.
The panel session “Fighting Fiber with Fiber” was moderated by Breznick with panelists:
- Christian Nascimento, VP, Product Management & Strategy, Comcast Business
- Brian Rose, Assistant VP, Product Internet, Networking & Carrier Services. Cox Communications
- Steve Begg, VP/GM, Business Services, Armstrong Business Solutions
- Mark Chinn, Partner, CMG Partners
- Ed Harstead, Lead Technology Strategist, Chief Technology Office, Fixed Networks, Nokia
Decades old hybrid fiber-coax networks (HFC) drive fiber to the node outside of the premises, which is then hooked up using older cable (coaxial) technology. However, due to advances in cable technology such as the latest DOCSIS 4.0 technology, the cable industry has touted its newly developed technological capacity to support multi-gig symmetrical speeds over those hybrid networks. DOCSIS 4.0 currently supports speeds of up to 10 Gigabits (Gbps) per second download and 6 Gbps upload – its predecessor, DOCSIS 3.1, offered only 5 Gbps * 1.5 Gbps.
Christian Nascimento of Comcast stated that hybrid networks that deliver multi-gigabit speeds are “adequate” for smaller enterprises. “This is matter of matching the technology up with…the customer’s needs,” he said, adding that Comcast delivers these services in a “cost-effective way.”
For Cox Communications, the hybrid model is “an ‘and,’ not an ‘or,’” said Brian Rose, the assistant vice president of product internet for the cable company. While Cox may invest more heavily in fiber networks going forward, Rose said it will continue to invest in its cable networks as well. Rose said he welcomes market challenges from insurgent fiber deployers. “Competition is good for customers and the industry overall,” he said. “It pushes people to be better and to push the envelope.”
The panel wasn’t unanimously bullish on older cable technology, however. Ed Harstead of Nokia argued that a widespread transition to fiber is inevitable. “I don’t doubt that mom-and-pop businesses will be perfectly fine on [cable]. But to the extent that you need higher speeds and symmetrical speeds…it’s going to be fiber.”
The cable broadband industry faces an onslaught of criticism from fiber advocates. Organizations like the Fiber Broadband Association say their preferred technology performs better, last longer, and costs less in the long term than the competition. FBA President Gary Bolton has strongly opposed government support for all manner of non-fiber technology, including satellite and wireless.
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References:
https://www.lightreading.com/cable-tech/cable-business-services-bounce-back/d/d-id/782175
Cable Providers Back Hybrid Fiber-Coax Networks in Face of Pure Fiber
AWS, Google, Microsoft, Oracle win $9B DoD cloud computing contract (JWCC)
The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) finally revealed the awards for its revamped cloud contract “Joint Warfighting Cloud Capability (JWCC),” with Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft, Google and Oracle collectively getting $9 billion to improve the agency’s IT operations. The contracts run through 2028 the Pentagon said in a news release.
JWCC is a multiple-award contract vehicle that will provide the DoD the opportunity to acquire commercial cloud capabilities and services directly from the commercial Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) at the speed of mission, at all classification levels, from headquarters to the tactical edge.
This Indefinite-Delivery, Indefinite-Quantity (IDIQ) contract vehicle offers commercial pricing, or better, and streamlined provisioning of cloud services. With JWCC, warfighters will now have the opportunity to acquire the following capabilities under one contract:
- global accessibility
- available and resilient services
- centralized management and distributed control
- ease of use
- commercial parity
- elastic computing, storage, and network infrastructure
- advanced data analytics
- fortified security
- tactical edge devices
To get started using JWCC or to learn more, visit to contact the Defense Information Systems Agency (DISA) Hosting and Compute Center (HaCC) or to log-in to the JWCC Customer Portal. DISA has developed user-friendly cloud accelerators to make it easier for DOD customers to purchase, provision, and onboard into the cloud.
Photo of the U.S. Pentagon/DoD
The decision to award contracts to four companies was a shift for the Pentagon, three years after it had given a $10 billion cloud-computing contract to Microsoft. That contract, for the Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure, known as JEDI, became part of a legal battle over claims that President Donald J. Trump interfered in a process that favored Microsoft over its rival bidder, Amazon. In 2021, the Defense Department said it would not move forward with the Microsoft contract, as it “was developed at a time when the department’s needs were different and our cloud conversancy less mature.”
Instead, the Pentagon said, it would seek bids from multiple technology companies for the Joint Warfighting Cloud Capability. While market research indicated that Microsoft and Amazon would be best positioned to meet the needs, officials said they would also reach out to IBM, Oracle and Google.
“This is the biggest cloud Beltway deal in history and was a key deal to win for all the software vendors in this multiyear soap opera,” Dan Ives, a tech analyst with Wedbush Securities, said in an email. “It’s good to finally end this chapter and get a cloud deal finally done for the Pentagon after years of a roller coaster,” he added.
An AWS spokesperson said in an email, “We are honored to have been selected for the Joint Warfighting Cloud Capability contract and look forward to continuing our support for the Department of Defense. From the enterprise to the tactical edge, we are ready to deliver industry-leading cloud services to enable the DoD to achieve its critical mission.”
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