Author: Alan Weissberger
India 5G Delayed due to spectrum sale and lack of fiber connectivity
The Indian government expects initial “5G” rollouts by late 2020. But sector experts say the country is running late and could be at least three years behind South Korea, Japan, Australia, the US, China, France and Germany in rolling out 5G networks. Pre IMT 2020 standard 5G services are likely to be rolled out in those markets by late 2019 or early 2020.
Some of the key reasons why India is slipping behind in 5G – after having missed the 3G and 4G early adoption train – include dismal state of fiber network infrastructure (needed for backhaul), absence of relevant use-cases and a very modest presence of household electronics plugged into the Internet.
Financial stress in the industry and a missing handset/mobile device ecosystem have already delayed a 5G spectrum sale to late 2019.
Further, high debt levels and the prospect of high reserve prices could further kill the appetite of telcos even when 5G airwaves are auctioned, especially for older carriers such as Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel, whose India operations remain in the red, say experts.
Problems related to setting up and maintaining fiber networks and poor 4G Internet availability in the villages and small towns, they say, could further scale down the business case for early 5G rollouts in India. 5G smartphones won’t come to India before 2020, although they will be available in early adopter markets next year (again, pre-standard and likely based on 3GPP release 15 5G NR).
Sunil Mittal-led Bharti Airtel said recently that the current wave of popular 5G use-cases such as “driverless cars to remote surgery are not practical in the Indian context,” which is why it expects deployments are four years away. He also said the company is in no hurry to bid for 5G spectrum.
Experts say a major deterrent to India’s 5G ambitions is lack of adequate fiber connectivity – less than 20% of the country’s telecom towers are linked by fiber. This can limit the capacity to connect the core of a mobile network to nodes and then on to towers for transmitting data. A reliable fiber-based network is critical to support 5G data speeds of 10 Gbps and next-gen applications such as video-on-demand and internet of things (IoT) to smart cities.
“If 5G is to succeed in India, at least 70-80% of mobile towers will have to be fiberised, failing which, severe data speed limitations will continue as present backhaul networks in India use microwave spectrum,” says TR Dua, director general of Tower & Infrastructure Providers Association, an industry grouping representing Indus Towers, Bharti Infratel, American Tower Corporation, GTL, Reliance Infratel and Tower Vision.
TV Ramachandran, president of the Broadband India Forum, agrees, saying, “Most 5G use-cases would fall if we don’t provide strong fibre connectivity.” The forum counts Huawei, Qualcomm, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Hughes and Intel among its members.
In comparison to India, China already has 75-80% of its mobile towers fiberised.
Moody’s Investors Service expects China to commercially deploy 5G services in late-2019 or by 2020, with pilot trials already under way. The Chinese government allocated 5G spectrum this month to the country’s top 3 telcos – China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom – to conduct field trials in the run-up to the commercial rollout of 5G services.
By contrast, India’s telecom department said that the 5G spectrum sale would take place in the secondhalf of 2019. It though recently invited telcos, equipment vendors and other stakeholders to partner with the government for 5G trials. Sources say trials are still some time away.
Nitin Soni, director (corporates) at global rating company Fitch, does not expect 5G to arrive in India before 2022 at the earliest because the telecom industry balance sheet – saddled with Rs 7 lakh crore in debt – is in no shape to support a 5G spectrum sale in the next one year.
“Even if 5G spectrum is auctioned by late-2019, I don’t foresee enthusiastic bidding, especially if reserve prices are high as older carriers are still struggling. Besides, India is nowhere near having ubiquitous fibre connectivity or a devices ecosystem comparable with China or Korea, which could delay 5G rollouts by another three years,” says the Singapore-based Fitch director.
Rajan Mathews, director general of the Cellular Operators Association of India, which represents Vodafone Idea, Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio Infocomm, says the primary reason South Korea, Germany, Japan or the UK have been able to brace for 5G early is due to the strong “financial condition of their telecom operators.”
The reserve price of 5G spectrum recommended by India’s telecom regulator, he said, “is much higher compared to Germany, South Korea or UK.”
In August, the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) set Rs 492 crore per unit as the minimum rate for 5G spectrum (in the 3.4-3.5 GHz bands), compared with Rs 131 crore per unit and Rs 66 crore per unit in South Korea and the UK, respectively.
A key global learning, Rajan says, is “pricing the spectrum at reasonable rates” to allow telcos to bid aggressively and roll out 5G services.
Fitch’s Soni says China has stolen a march over India as “it’s streets ahead in developing data-intensive 5G content coupled with music, movie and sport apps in regional languages,” which is slated to drive consumption once 5G services get rolled out there.
Experts also say that unlike India, China already has a buzzing internet of things ecosystem, wherein cars, machines and ordinary home appliances are plugged to the internet, providing the perfect springboard for 5G to rapidly gain traction.
The Modi government, though, doesn’t want India to miss the 5G bus – like the country did on 3G and 4G – as the economic impact alone of this superfast wireless broadband technology is estimated at over $1 trillion by 2035.
The government has set up a highpowered 5G Forum to advise on the path forward, which has suggested that most rules on regulatory matters be promulgated by next March to pave the way for early rollouts.
US chipmaker Qualcomm has downplayed concerns around 5G ecosystem challenges, saying that although the global infrastructure ecosystem is diverse, the vendors overseas and in India are the same.
“Different countries are at different stages of mass deployment of fibre and so on,” says Durga Malladi, senior vice president, Engineering & GM (4G/5G), at Qualcomm Technologies.
Reference:
Addendum:
Reliance Jio president Mathew Oommen told ETTelecom: “For service providers, just voice or even traditional data revenue alone is not going to be the cure. They have to invest and innovate so that they would not get displaced by other aggressive providers or more importantly by OTT companies.”
India telecom market leader Reliance Jio, second ranked Bharti Airtel and financially stressed Vodafone Idea (Vi) have filed applications for participation in the upcoming 4G spectrum auctions, due to start on March 1. The auction for over 2300 MHz of airwaves—valued at Rs 3.92 lakh crore at base price—though is likely to see limited bidding intensity for spectrum worth less than Rs 48,000 crore, with Jio and Airtel expected to be the main players. Industry executives have confirmed to ET that the three telcos have filed in their applications although Airtel, Jio and Vi did not respond to ET’s queries.
https://telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/jio-airtel-vodafone-idea-apply-to-bid-in-spectrum-auctions/80769608
Point Topic: Global fixed broadband take-up & forecasts to 2025 + Rethink TV: China to lead in gigabit broadband services
1. Point topic – FTTH/FTTP/FTTB:
Market research firm Point Topic predicts that 59% of broadband subscribers worldwide will be served by fiber to the home/premises/building (FTTH/FTTP/FTTB) by the end of 2025. That represents an 11% jump from current levels. Please see Rethink TV’s findings below, which corroborate the rise of fiber access based broadband network access.
Point Topic forecasts that there will be 1.2 billion fixed broadband subscribers worldwide by the end of 2025. Broadband subscriber totals exceeded 1 billion in the third quarter of this year, the market research firm points out. Approximately 89% of these subscribers reside in one of the top 30 markets as defined by subscriber numbers recorded in this year’s second quarter.
Within these markets, FTTH and related options will grab market share primarily from xDSL, which should decline 19% to 9% during the forecast period. While overall subscriber numbers for fiber to the curb (FTTC) and VDSL, as well as DOCSIS-based hybrid fiber/coax (HFC), should climb during the forecast window, market share will remain fairly stable. FTTC will account for approximately 12% of connections, while HFC will check in at 19%, the researchers estimate.
While legacy copper networks have been losing customers to more advanced technologies for years. It looks like direct fibre networks will attract the majority of new customers, with DSL figures forecast to drop to hundreds or tens of thousands in most technologically advanced markets.
However, one cannot completely discount FTTC/VDSL and cable platforms, preferred by some operators, and especially their more advanced versions such as G.fast and Docsis 3.1 which are capable of gigabit speeds. We have seen their deployment gather pace in certain regions of the world (see their latest map).
The advent of 5G should have a dampening effect on fixed broadband in the forecast period, according to Point Topic. They are awaiting data from the field as 5G service is rolled out before predicting how much of an impact that market will have on fixed broadband.
The forecasts include data for the top 30 fixed broadband markets and the rest of the world. Point Topic has based them on historical data on fixed broadband take up. The forecasts include trends in subscriber churn for various broadband technologies, the size of the addressable market at country level, and current and planned network upgrades.
http://point-topic.com/free-analysis/fixed-broadband-take-up-forecasts/
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Point Topic’s most recent outputs put the total number of global fixed line broadband subscribers at 983 million at the end of June. Current adoption rates mean that the billionth broadband line appeared in September 2018, probably in China they say.
Technologies rarely manage to spread through the world so quickly, in only twenty years more than half the households in the world have a fixed broadband line.
http://point-topic.com/billion-lines-fixed-broadband-half-world/
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2. Rethink TV – China to lead in gigabit broadband:
A recent report from Rethink TV, the video research arm of Rethink Technology Research, says that “in advanced countries such as France, Switzerland and South Korea, more than 50% of households will take 1Gbps broadband by 2023.” Rethink TV says that 57% of the world’s 1Gbps connections installed by 2023 will be in China. Over 42% of all Chinese homes will have access to 1Gbps services, thanks to “a series of massive build-outs led by China Mobile.” Rethink CEO and co-founder Peter White, says that China will have 191 million homes connected to 1Gbps by 2023, leading the world market. Japan will have 19.4 million and South Korea will have 9.5 million 1Gbps homes. Today, China is already substantially in the lead with 18.8 1 Gbps lines, with France on 4 million, Japan on 3.8 million and the US on 3 million.
In sharp contrast, only 11% of North America households will have 1Gbps connections by 2023 (see map) – even though the US, at 33.5 million households, will be the second largest market behind China.
“Gigabit broadband will accelerate faster than previous forecasts have imagined, growing tenfold over the next five years,” said Rethink. “After a two-year period of being high priced luxuries, 1Gbps broadband will become commonplace and inexpensive.”
Fiber optics based network access will take over in most parts of the world from copper-based technologies such as G.fast, except in the US, where cable TV networks will rely on DOCSIS 3.1. “Laggards in percentage terms will include the United Kingdom and Germany and much of Latin America,” said Rethink.
https://rethinkresearch.biz/report/gigabit-broadband-forecast-to-2023/
Mexico’s Federal Telecommunications Institute (IFT) makes 600MHz band available for 5G services-AT&T or Telcel?
International Law Office (subscription required):
In October 2018, after relocating more than 200 TV channels, Mexico’s Federal Telecommunications Institute (IFT) approved the relocation of the last two TV channels that transmitted in the 600MHz band in order to free it up for 5G broadband services. In doing so, Mexico became the first country to finish implementing this transition and liberate the 600MHz band.
This transition will enable Mexico to make the 600MHz band available to the market through a bidding process and exploit international mobile telecoms (IMT) applications for 5G mobile broadband services. It is anticipated that the 600MHz band auction will be launched in 2020 so that the deployment of the network can commence in 2021.
Mexico had already successfully switched off the 700MHz band for analogue TV in November 2015. In such band, the government implemented the Red Compartida (or Shared Network) project through a public-private partnership in order to:
- provide broadband in areas that lacked coverage;
- improve service quality;
- reduce the price of mobile services;
- promote competitiveness; and
- improve digital service innovation.
The auction was won by Altán Redes, a new joint venture responsible for the design, implementation, operation and maintenance of the Red Compartida.
In addition, in 2018 the IFT conducted a bidding procedure in which it allocated 120MHz of the 2.5GHz band in favour of AT&T and Telefonica.
In light of the above, Mexico has allocated 584MHz to IMT, which represents 44.9% of the International Telecommunications Unit recommended spectrum allocation for 2015.
With the future auction of the 600MHz band, the IFT will take the lead in providing more spectrum for telephony and 5G mobile internet services. This is in line with the spectral policy, which has allocated more than double the amount of spectrum to the market over the past five years, resulting in greater benefits for Mexican users.
In addition, the IFT is considering using the 3.3GHz to 3.6GHz band for 5G technology, as some companies are already using this band for such purposes.
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With this, Mexico becomes the first country in the world to completely dislodge the frequencies from 614 to 698 Mhz to start testing the 5G network.
AT&T will likely be the first operator to deploy its 5G network in Mexicoo (at some point next year). Telcel would follow closely with the launch of its own technology a year later, in 2020 . The reality is that there is still a lot of work to be done , but apparently Mexico is on the right track.
In Xataka Mexico | 5G, everything you need to know about the new generation of mobile networks
References:
AT&T to deploy live mobile “5G” in the U.S. on Dec. 21st, but limited to single WiFi hotspot endpoint
Whew! I don’t have to hold my breath any longer! But is it really 5G? And whom other than stadiums/parks will buy it with only a single end device offered- a WiFi hotspot?
AT&T announced today that they will be offering their so called “5G” mobile network service in 12 cities on December 21st. The telco/media conglomerate says: “AT&T will be the first and only company in the U.S. to offer a mobile 5G device over a commercial, standards-based mobile 5G network.”
Please see Author’s Closing Comments below, which refute that “standards based” claim. We’ve repeatedly pounded the table that 3GPP Release 15 NR NSA is not 5G and nothing that comes out of 3GPP is a standard (as per their own website!).
As expected, AT&T’s initial 5G launch will use mmWave spectrum [1], which is claimed to offer users a faster mobile experience than standard LTE. The 5G service starts small and will be limited. AT&T’s mobile 5G network is live in parts of 12 cities: Atlanta, Charlotte, N.C., Dallas, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Fla., Louisville, Ky., Oklahoma City, New Orleans, Raleigh, N.C., San Antonio and Waco, Texas.
Note 1. Millimeter waves occupy the frequency spectrum from 30 GHz to 300 GHz. They’re found in the spectrum between microwaves (1 GHz to 30 GHz) and infrared (IR) waves, which is sometimes known as extremely high frequency (EHF). The wavelength (λ) is in the 1-mm to 10-mm range.
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“This is the first taste of the mobile 5G era,” said Andre Fuetsch, president, AT&T Labs and chief technology officer. “Being first, you can expect us to evolve very quickly. It’s early on the 5G journey and we’re ready to learn fast and continually iterate in the months ahead.”
In the first half of 2019 AT&T plans to deploy mobile 5G in parts of these 7 additional cities: Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Nashville, Orlando, San Diego, San Francisco and San Jose, Calif. The company says that as the 5G ecosystem evolves customers will see enhancements in coverage, speeds and devices.
“As the ecosystem evolves, this technology will ultimately change the way we live and conduct business,” said Mo Katibeh, chief marketing officer, AT&T Business. “We expect that our initial adopters will be innovative, growing businesses. They’re the starting point for what we think will be a technology revolution like we’ve never seen before.”
“Today’s news is a seminal moment in the advancement of mobile 5G technology,” said David Christopher, president of AT&T mobility and entertainment, in a statement. “This proves we are well on our way to the promise of mobile 5G for consumers.”
Early adopters will only have one choice of end user equipment: the NETGEAR® Nighthawk 5G Mobile Hotspot (aka “a puck”) on the mobile 5G+ network. AT&Ts 5G service will start out in dense urban areas. Through an initial offer, AT&T says they will deliver select businesses and consumers their first mobile 5G device plus 5G data usage at no cost for at least 90 days. Next spring, customers will be able to get the Nighthawk for $499 upfront and 15GB of data for $70 a month on a compatible plan and no annual commitment [2].
AT&T said its hot spot and the data it uses will be free for subscribers in the first 90 days of the rollout. After that period, the device will sell for $499 with a 15-gigabyte data plan priced at $70 per month—a rate slightly cheaper per-datum than the 10-GB for $50 it offers with 4G LTE hotspots.
An AT&T spokesperson said businesses and customers in the initial rollout areas can express interest in joining the early phase of the network on the company’s website. The spokesperson also said the network should eventually reach theoretical peak speeds of 979 megabits per second, but actual average rates will be lower.
In December, AT&T announced two 5G-capable smartphones for 2019. A Samsung-branded 5G smartphone operating on AT&Ts mmWave is will be released in the spring of 2019. Toward the end of 2019, AT&T will release another Samsung 5G smartphone with multi-frequency band support. None of those devices will meet the still uncompleted IMT 2020 standard for mobile 5G (see Closing Comments below).
Note 2. The NETGEAR Nighthawk device will require a 5G compatible AT&T data plan. Device availability and 5G+ coverage areas are limited.
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Expect to hear more about 5G soon at events like the big consumer electronics trade show CES in January in Las Vegas and MWC Barcelona (formerly the Mobile World Congress) in February in Spain. Wireless service providers including AT&T and Verizon are already talking up 5G. And device makers are previewing gadgets that will work with the technology.
Samsung recently demonstrated prototypes of 5G smartphones that are expected to operate on both Verizon and AT&T networks. Many other manufacturers are racing to follow suit, though Apple is not expected in the initial 5G wave. Analysts predict that iPhones with the new technology won’t arrive until 2020.
Qualcomm, the wireless chip maker, said it had demonstrated peak 5G download speeds of 4.5 gigabits/second, but predicts initial median speeds of about 1.4 gigabits/secon. That translates to roughly 20 times faster than the current 4G LTE experience, but is much lower than IMT 2020 objectives for peak and average bit rates.
The 5G speeds will be particularly noticeable in higher-quality streaming video.Downloading a typical movie at the median speeds cited by Qualcomm would take 17 seconds with 5G, compared with six minutes for 4G.
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From a previous IEEE Techblog post–AT&T’s 5G Roadmap (only mobile 5G was shown on Al Burke’s SCWS 2018 presentation – nothing on fixed 5G):
- 2019: 5G NR access with LTE Core network and LTE Access (=signaling?). The spectrum for AT&Ts initial mobile 5G rollout was not disclosed, but many believe it will be mmWave.
- 2020-2022+: 5G NR access with 5G Core network (3GPP Release 16 SA or IMT 2020?); also LTE Core with LTE Access
- 2019-2022+: mmWave NR : Evolution to Ultra High Speed and lower latency
- End of 2019-2022+: (unspecified time frame?), AT&T will provide sub 6 GHz 5G coverage in the U.S. speed and latency; dedicated & shared spectrum (LTE-NR-Coexistence)
When AT&T introduces its “5G” FWA residential service it will be based on LTE, according to Mr. Burke. In answer to a question from this author during the Q&A session, he said it would start as LTE but then transition to 5G NR based FWA. The spectrum to be used was not revealed by Mr. Burke, but it will likely be mmWave (like Verizon’s 5G Home).
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Author’s Closing Comments:
A claim we’ve heard before (by Ericsson and Vodafone), but don’t believe: LTE network and terminal equipment will upgrade to 5G NR via “only a software upgrade.”As noted many times by this author and others,
AT&T has repeatedly stated they would roll out “standards based 5G” in 12 cities by the end of 2018 (they have only 3 weeks to fulfill that promise) and 19 cities in 2019. Some of the cities identified by AT&T for the 2018 launch include Houston TX, Dallas TX, Atlanta TX, Waco TX, Charlotte NC, Raleigh NC, Oklahoma City OK, Jacksonville FL, Louisville, KY, New Orleans LA, Indianapolis IN, and San Antonio TX.
How long can AT&T claim their “5G” network is standards based when they only support 3GPP release 15 “5G NR” NSA access with a LTE core network and LTE signaling? The ONLY 5G RAN/RIT standard is IMT 2020 which won’t be completed till the end of 2020. AT&T knows this well because one of their representatives is the Chairman of ITU-R WP 5D where IMT 2020 is being standardized.
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References:
SCWS Americas: Verizon and AT&T 5G Roadmaps Differ on FWA vs mobile “5G”
https://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/what-is-5g/
AT&T Fiber Expansion Adds 12 More Markets, Now Reaches 10M Locations
AT&T has expanded its AT&T Fiber service (Fiber to the Premises or FTTP) to 12 additional markets, including three in Texas and three in Florida. The telco’s FTTP offering now reaches more than 10 million locations in 84 metro areas, with 3 million of those having come this year. The company hopes to reach at least 14 million locations by mid-2019. That’s impressive!
AT&T now has fiber to more than 2 million business customer locations – with another 6 million locations within 1000 feet of fiber.
In a press release, the company said that mobile 5G success will rely on a quality fiber connection to the wireless towers or small cells, which then translate the fiber connection into an ultra-fast wireless signal for customers. Under the AT&T plans, eligible broadband customers can choose from a range of internet speed plans.
New research conducted for the Fiber Broadband Association by research firm RVA, LLC found 18.4 million U.S. fiber broadband homes as of September 2018, up from approximately 15 million a year earlier. Service providers made broadband available to a record-breaking 5.9 million new homes in the year ending September 2018, RVA said.
Network operators now market fiber broadband to 39.2 million U.S. homes, including 1.6 million homes that can get fiber broadband from two or more providers, according to the research.
Note:
AT&T says it offers Fiber to the premises in Santa Clara, CA (my home town for almost 49 years), but it’s not available anywhere in ny neighborhood. When I enter my zip code and address in the box on their website, I get no mention of fiber availability, but instead this box:
We found existing AT&T wireless service at your address.
This is my account and I’d like to see my offers and deals.
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In other words, it’s a frustrating cop-out on FTTP for Santa Clara, CA. Suggest readers check AT&T Fiber availability for your address/zip code.
References:
https://about.att.com/story/2018/internet-powered-by-att-fiber-available-12-metros.html
https://www.telecompetitor.com/att-fiber-expansion-12-more-cities/
Gartner Group Innovation & Insight: Cutting Through the 5G Hype
Executive Summary:
Most 5G deployments will initially focus on islands of deployment, without continuous national coverage through 2022. Enterprise architecture and technology innovation leaders must adapt digital business initiatives to the available network services.
Key Findings:
-
Despite service provider hype, most 5G rollouts will initially focus on islands of deployment. Broad availability of full-function public 5G from CSPs is unlikely before 2023, putting some digital business plans at risk — unless private networks are rolled out.
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Early public 5G deployments will be spotty in coverage, but will satisfy some enterprise use cases such as high-speed fixed wireless access.
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Enterprises may choose to deploy private 5G networks to address specific needs such as upgrading factory, stadium or warehouse networks. This may leverage Wi-Fi for access and 5G for the backbone.
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Application use-case requirements (such as latency) must be clearly defined, so alternatives to 5G can be considered where applicable. In many cases, Proto-5G (an enhanced 4G) will be good enough to satisfy application use cases.
Recommendations:
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Incorporate realistic networking assumptions for business plans by working with business leaders and network service providers to identify the availability of required advanced wireless services such as Proto-5G and 5G.
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Address current use-case requirements by identifying where 5G alternatives such as Proto-5 G can be leveraged when and where 5G is unavailable or too expensive.
Strategic Planning Assumption:
Analysis:
Adding to the confusion about 5G availability is the fact that many CSPs are claiming that everything they deploy is 5G. However, what they deploy may be little more than rebranded or advanced LTE, or a subset of 5G that is deployed in a very limited footprint.
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5G deployments will take more than twice as long as 4G/LTE because higher-frequency radio spectrum is required. This will force deployment of large numbers of new cellular radios.
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Spectrum allocation is progressing slowly.
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4G/LTE is successful and profitable.
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There are no killer applications to pay for the required investment.
Network-based CSPs in North America, Greater China and Japan will launch projects to complete 90% of nationwide 5G population coverage by 2023. CSPs in Western Europe will achieve similar coverage by 2026, while other regions will not achieve the same coverage until after 2026.
Figure 1. Estimated Timing of 5G Network Launches
Source: Gartner (December 2018)
Definition:
The official ITU specification, International Mobile Telecommunications-2020, targets maximum downlink and uplink throughputs of 20 Gbps and 10 Gbps, respectively; latency below 5 ms endpoint to RAN; and massive scalability, although initial deployments may be less ambitious. New system architecture includes core network slicing and edge computing.
Description:
Figure 2. Three Technology Pillars of 5G
Source: Gartner (December 2018)
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eMBB: High-throughput data transfer, with maximum speeds of 20 Gbps for downlink (although initial deployments will fall between 4 Gbps and 8 Gbps) and 10 Gbps for uplink.
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mMTC: Targets support of up to 1 million low-power nodes per square kilometer.
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URLLC: End-to-end cellular network latency of 5 ms or less.
The Evolution of 4G Versus the Promise of 5G:
Table 1: Proto-5G (Enhanced 4G) Compared to Existing 4G and 5G Wireless Access in the Future
|
Feature
|
4G
|
Proto-5G
|
5G Wireless Access
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
Requirement and Target
|
Up to several hundred Mbps downlink throughput
About several tens of ms latency
|
More than 500 Mbps downlink throughput
About 10 ms latency IoT connectivity support
|
More than 10 Gbps downlink throughput
About 1 ms latency URLLC support
|
|
Frequency
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Licensed (less than 6GHz)
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Licensed and unlicensed (less than 6GHz)
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Millimeter waves, in addition to Proto-5G’s frequency bands
|
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Device IoT Support
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LTE user equipment Cat. 1
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LTE user equipment Cat. 0, M1 and NB-IoT
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To be discussed in the technology standards
|
|
LTE = Long Term Evolution; URLLC = ultrareliable and low-latency communication
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Benefits and Uses:
In a shift from traditional cellular deployments, organizations will benefit from private network deployments that replace or augment campus Wi-Fi networks and wired in-building networks for applications such as factory automation and surveillance.
Figure 3. Expected Use for 5G-Capable Networks
Source: Gartner (December 2018)
Figure 4. Use Cases for Deploying 5G-Capable Networks for Operational Efficiency
Source: Gartner (December 2018)
Figure 5. Migration to 5G Will Enable Emerging Edge Computing Applications
Source: Gartner (December 2018)
Source: Gartner (December 2018)
Adoption Rate:
As a result, Gartner expects most 5G deployments to initially focus on islands of deployment, without continuous national coverage, typically reaching less than full parity with existing 4G geographical coverage by 2022 in developed nations.
Table 2: Representative Sample of 5G Deployments and Expected Use Cases to Be Supported
|
Country
|
CSP
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Launch Target
|
Use Cases and Demos
|
|---|---|---|---|
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U.S.
|
Verizon
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October 2018 and broader rollout in 2019
|
|
|
AT&T
|
AT&T plans to be the first U.S. company to introduce mobile 5G service in 12 cities in 2018.
|
|
|
|
T-Mobile
|
Build out 5G in 30 cities in 2018 and 2020 l for full nationwide coverage
|
|
|
|
Sprint
|
5G commercial services and devices by 1H19
|
|
|
|
South Korea
|
SK Telecom
|
Commercial launch March 2019
|
|
|
KT
|
Official 5G provider of the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics
Commercial launch March 2019
|
|
|
|
LG U+
|
Commercial launch March 2019
|
|
|
|
Japan
|
NTT DOCOMO
|
NTT DOCOMO will start 5G preservice in September 2019 and launch commercial service in spring 2020.
|
|
|
KDDI
|
Commercial launch in 2019 and massive deployment from 2020
|
|
|
|
SoftBank
|
Commercial launch in 2019
|
|
|
|
China
|
China Mobile
|
Commercial 5G services in 2020
|
|
|
China Telecom
|
Commercial 5G services in 2020
|
|
|
|
China Unicom
|
Commercial 5G services in 2020
|
|
|
|
Europe
|
EE in the U.K.
|
In late 2019
|
|
|
Deutsche Telekom in Germany
|
Strong preparation course for 5G rollout in 2020
|
|
|
|
Telia in Finland
|
Target 2019 for commercial rollout of 3.5GHz
|
|
|
|
Vodafone in the U.K.
|
Vodafone is gearing up for a full commercial launch of 5G services in mid-2019 and expects to have about 1,000 5G mobile sites in service by 2020.
|
|
|
|
Telefónica in Spain
|
2020
|
|
|
|
TIM in Italy
|
First 5G use cases made available in June 2018, and full rollout in Bari and Matera to be completed during 2019.
|
|
|
|
Swisscom in Switzerland
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Swisscom plans to introduce 5G at select sites in 2018. Extensive coverage can be expected in 2020.
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Middle East
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Etisalat in UAE
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Per a 14 May 2018 announcement, fixed devices and services will be available from September 2018 with the service gradually extended across the UAE.
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Ooredoo in Qatar
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Per a 14 May 2018 announcement, the first Ooredoo 5G site was launched, just days after Ooredoo’s new 5G Commercial Core Network was activated.
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STC in Saudi Arabia
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Per a 16 May 2018 announcement, the company will continue building the network gradually in Saudi Arabian cities until the 5G-capable devices are available during 2019.
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eMBB = enhanced mobile broadband; IoT; Internet of Things; N/A = not available; UAE = United Arab Emirates; VR = virtual reality
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Risks:
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Service provider hype will convince business leaders that 5G is broadly available well ahead of actual deployments.
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Differences in Proto-5G technologies will lead to inconsistent solutions across providers and regions.
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CSP capital expense budgets are constrained, which will slow deployments in all but the highest-demand locations and for the applications that generate immediate service provider revenue.
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Full-featured 5G requires a 4x increase in antenna density and an upgrade of the entire antenna to radio access node network, which will be challenging in cities due to existing buildings and lack of rights of way.
Acronym Key and Glossary Terms:
| AR |
augmented reality
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| CSP |
communications service provider
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| ITU |
International Telecommunication Union
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| LTE |
Long Term Evolution
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| ms |
millisecond
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| RAN |
radio access network
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| URLLC |
ultrareliable and low-latency communication
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| VR |
virtual reality
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SCWS Americas: Verizon and AT&T 5G Roadmaps Differ on FWA vs mobile “5G”
Verizon has no plans for linear or on-demand (or any other form) of pay TV for its “5G” FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) based residential/Verizon Home broadband service, according to Bill Stone, the company”s VP of technology development and planning. Stone stated that in a question from this author (during the Q&A session after his second presentation) at the excellent SCWS Americas conference in Santa Clara, CA on December 5, 2018. Instead, Verizon has a partnership with YouTube TV (first three months free) to provide OTT video to its FWA customers. Verizon Home customers get a free Apple TV 4K or Google Chromecast Ultra (Internet TV adapters with HDMI connection to the customer’s TV) when they sign up for 5G Home service.
Stone also said that Verizon’s FiOS will continue to offer higher speeds than its 5G Home service, which will transition from its proprietary “5G TF” spec to 3GPP release 15 5G NR NSA (non stand alone) in the near future. He told me privately that any wireless base station vendor that supports 5G NR would be able to interoperate on the carrier’s 5G FWA network (we don’t think so for many reasons). Verizon’s 5G Home service is currently available in Houston, Indianapolis, Los Angeles and Sacramento.
Stone noted with pride that the mega carrier continues to bolster its 4G LTE network with new technologies. “LTE has a lot of runway left,” Bill said to the audience.
Verizon currently says that customers of its 5G Home service will receive download speeds of at least 300 Mbps. A video was shown of satisfied customers who all got download speeds of 800 Mbps or higher. The mega carrier said that speeds can range up to 1 Gbps depending on customers’ location in relation to the towers for the service.
Verizon currently charges new customers $70 per month for 5G Home service, but only $50 per month for existing customers (with 1st three months free) who also subscribe to the carrier’s $30/month mobile data plan. Voice is offered along with high speed Internet access, but no pay TV is available as with FiOS.
“The peak data rates here in millimeter-wave will definitely increase,” Stone told the audience. Verizon currently runs its 5G Home service in its 28 GHz licensed spectrum in 400 MHz channels. But he said the carrier has the ability to increase that spectrum allotment to 600 MHz and 800 MHz channels (Verizon owns huge amounts of millimeter-wave spectrum via its purchases of XO and Straight Path). Stone explained that expanding the service’s spectrum channels would both increase user speeds and increase Verizon’s network capacity. Verizon will move from 400 MHz to 800 MHz, and that will result in the speeds and capacity available would double as a result.
Currently, the antennas and receivers for Verizon’s Home broadband service are installed by “white glove” professional technicians. In the future, the carrier is planning to offer a self-installation option for its 5G Home service. “Over time the goal is to introduce the ability to drop ship equipment that the customer can install on their own,”
Stone said, without providing a timeline for such a move. tone touched on several other data points for its FWA home broadband service:
- 50% of Verizon’s 5G Home customers do not subscribe to the operator’s mobile service.
- The service can transmit 1 Gbps downstream up to 3,000 feet.
- The millimeter-wave service works in conditions including rain, snow and non-line-of-sight scenarios. Indeed, Stone said some transmissions work better in non-line-of-sight scenarios than when customers are within sight of the tower, due to the fact that millimeter-wave transmissions can reflect off various objects in order to reach their intended destination.
- Verizon’s 5G Home customers are switching to the carrier from a variety of other service providers, though no details were provided.
- Verizon ultimately expects to expand 5G Home to 30 million households at some unspecified time in the future, though Dunne said the carrier may revisit that figure as the company’s rollout progresses.
- Verizon won’t build any more locations with its 5GTF equipment, and will instead wait for 3GPP release 15 5G NR equipment to become available before expanding to additional neighborhoods and cities. However, the implementation of 5G NR by vendors will initially be non stand alone (NSA), which means its dependent on a LTE core network and LTE signaling. That may differ amongst wireless base station vendors as will the frequencies used for different 5G NR carrier networks.
- Verizon is making significant progress toward implementing vRAN technology on its 5G network, working with its vendors—including Ericsson, Samsung and Nokia—to virtualize the lower layers of its network in addition to the upper layers. The process of virtualizing the baseband functions in the RAN is part of a broader trend in the wireless and wider telecom industry in which operators are increasingly looking to move away from expensive, dedicated hardware from traditional suppliers and toward general-purpose compute servers running (mostly) open source software.
- Verizon remains interested in providing edge computing services, services he said the operator could sell to companies looking to provide offerings ranging from drones to autonomous vehicles. Verizon’s efforts in edge computing stem from the carrier’s moves to densify its network and to virtualize parts of its network functions. Those efforts, Stone said, would create a foundation for Verizon to eventually run edge computing sevices for third parties.
5G Home is one of many services Verizon plans to offer via 5G network technology with mobile 5G (again, based on 3GPP release 15 “5G NR”o NSA) being the next “5G” offering. When mobile “5G” is deployed in the 11st half of 2019, the Motorola moto z3 smartphone, paired with the 5G moto mod and a Samsung 5G smartphone will be available. So will an Inseego 5G hotspot that can access Verizon’s mobile network.
Addendum: 5G is one network, multiple use cases, Verizon CEO says
Last week at the UBS Global Media and Communications Conference, Verizon CEO Hans Vestberg touted the carrier’s 5G home residential broadband service as complementing its wired Fios offering while extending the ability to provide a wireless alternative to home connectivity. While the fixed wireless access service is only available in four markets, the carrier said half of the customers are new to the company.
In a discussion with John Hodulik of UBS Investment Bank and HSBC analyst Sunil Rajgopal, Vestberg said 5G Home comes with a guaranteed 300 Mbps but its millimeter wave spectrum can support up to 800 Mbps or 900 Mbps.
“It’s a totally different way to doing broadband, meaning, instead of having a cord into the house, you have a wireless wave into the house, but the experience is the same in the house. And I think that’s a big opportunity for us. We have one footprint of Home, and that’s the Northeast where we have our Fios footprint. For the rest of the country, we don’t have it. So of course, we see that as an opportunity.”
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In a SCWS Americas keynote speech, title “Building our 5G network,” Al Burke, AT&T Assistant Vice President – RAN Hardware and Software Development, described the progress the carrier has made in upgrading its network for 5G. The key points he made were:
- 5G will facilitate and support new applications such as VR/AR, remote surgery (Bill said he doesn’t want to be one of the first patients), connected cars, etc.
- Small cells will be an integral part of 5G networks and “bring them to fruition”
- By the ned of 2017, 55% of AT&Ts network functions were virtualized (I take that to mean they were implemented as software running on commodity compute servers)
- There have been huge shifts in AT&Ts network in the last few years:
1. From hardware to software implementations (e.g SDN, NFV);
2. From centralized to decentralized control (e.g. EDGE computing)
3. From observation (of network events, alerts, alarms) to insight via AI/ML (e.g.AT&T’s INDIGO)
- Open RAN (ORAN) is the way to move forward. Via disaggregation of RAN functions with well defined interfaces, ORAN is “open, modular, enables automation, and is lower cost. ORAN results in interchangeable network modules (from different vendors) vs vendor proprietary equipment.
AT&T’s 5G Roadmap (only mobile 5G was shown on Al Burke’s slide – nothing on fixed 5G):
- 2019: 5G NR access with LTE Core network and LTE Access (=signaling?). The spectrum for AT&Ts initial mobile 5G rollout was not disclosed, but many believe it will be mmWave.
- 2020-2022+: 5G NR access with 5G Core network (3GPP Release 16 SA or IMT 2020?); also LTE Core with LTE Access
- 2019-2022+: mmWave NR : Evolution to Ultra High Speed and lower latency
- End of 2019-2022+: (unspecified time frame?), AT&T will provide sub 6 GHz 5G coverage in the U.S. speed and latency; dedicated & shared spectrum (LTE-NR-Coexistence)
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When AT&T introduces its “5G” FWA residential service it will be based on LTE, according to Mr. Burke. In answer to a question from this author during the Q&A session, he said it would start as LTE but then transition to 5G NR based FWA. The spectrum to be used was not revealed, but you can assume it will be mmWave (like Verizon’s 5G Home).
Author’s Closing Comments:
A claim we’ve heard before (by Ericsson and Vodafone), but don’t believe: LTE network and terminal equipment will upgrade to 5G NR via “only a software upgrade.”As noted many times by this author and others,
AT&T has repeatedly stated they would roll out “standards based 5G” in 12 cities by the end of 2018 (they have only 3 weeks to fulfill that promise) and 19 cities in 2019. Some of the cities identified by AT&T for the 2018 launch include Houston TX, Dallas TX, Atlanta TX, Waco TX, Charlotte NC, Raleigh NC, Oklahoma City OK, Jacksonville FL, Louisville, KY, New Orleans LA, Indianapolis IN, and San Antonio TX.
How long can AT&T claim their “5G” network is standards based when they only support 3GPP release 15 “5G NR” NSA access with a LTE core network and LTE signaling? The ONLY 5G RAN/RIT standard is IMT 2020 which won’t be completed till the end of 2020.
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Fierce Wireless writes about what to expect from AT&T’s 5G mobile service. We’d like to know How much will it cost? And who will subscribe when only a WiFi hotspot with 5G backhaul is offered?
Verizon, Samsung & Qualcomm achieve 1.7 Gbps in mobile 5G test; 5G smartphone for VZ and AT&T
Verizon, Samsung and Qualcomm report achieving a speed of 1.7 Gbps [1] through a mobile 5G connection while using the 28 GHz band. The test took place at Qualcomm’s San Diego, CA facilities, using Samsung’s 4G LTE and 5G NR gear, Verizon’s 28 GHz spectrum and a Qualcomm Snapdragon X50 5G modem.
Note 1. For IMT 2020, the minimum requirements for peak data rate are: – Downlink peak data rate is 20 Gbit/s. – Uplink peak data rate is 10 Gbit/s. Recommendation ITU-R M.2083 defines eight key “Capabilities for IMT-2020”, which form a basis for the 13 technical performance requirements. Recommendation ITU-R M.2083 also recognizes that the key capabilities will have different relevance and applicability for the different usage scenarios addressed by IMT-2020 (enhance mobile broadband, massive machine to machine communications, and ultra reliable, low latency communications).
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“Successful inter-operation of multiple network technologies takes us another step closer to the commercialization of 5G mobility services,” Woojune Kim, the Senior Vice President and Head of North American Business at Samsung Electronics’ Networks Business said in a press release. “We are proud to join with Verizon and Qualcomm Technologies to spotlight the next steps driving network evolution. The use of substantial mmWave spectrum and EN-DC demonstrates how a seamless 5G/LTE approach succeeds in delivering high-speed, high-capacity mobility on next-generation networks.”
The year ahead likely will bring much news about the device market, which promises to be challenging. Indeed, the news seems to be picking up before the year arrives.
Verizon and Samsung said that they will bring a 5G smartphone [2] to market during the first half of 2019. They said that plans are to unveil a proof-of-concept 5G smartphone during the Qualcomm Snapdragon Technology Summit in Maui. The device seems similar to the one used in the data testing. It includes the Snapdragon Mobile Platform featuring the Snapdragon X50 5G NR modem and antenna modules with integrated RF transceiver, RF front-end and antenna elements.
Note 2. Samsung showed a prototype design of its first 5G phone at the Qualcomm Summit, one that it promised will launch with Verizon and AT&T in the first half of 2019. Those “5G” networks will be based on 3GPP Release 15 “5G NR” non stand alone (dependent on a LTE core network). The phone “is the result of years of collaboration to deploy an end-to-end solution for commercial 5G services using Samsung network equipment and personal devices,” the companies said in a press release.
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AT&T also said that it will offer a Samsung 5G smartphone during the first half of the year. Cities AT&T is targeting for mobile 5G in 2019 are Atlanta; Charlotte, N.C.; Dallas; Houston; Indianapolis; Jacksonville; Louisville; Oklahoma City; New Orleans; Raleigh; San Antonio and Waco, Texas; Las Vegas; Los Angeles; Nashville; Orlando and San Diego, San Francisco and San Jose, CA.
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Verizon Tests Interoperable 5G and LTE Technology, Achieves Mobile 5G Speed of 1.7 Gbps
5G Network and Smartphone Update: AT&T Verizon and Qualcomm
AT&T is sticking to its “end of the year” 5G commercial deployment schedule, but no smartphones or tablets will be available at that time. AT&T plans to have 5G available in parts of 12 markets up by the end of the year. AT&T Communications CEO John Donovan. said AT&T’s 5G is expected to move into 19 cities (so far) in 2019. AT&T has told Light Reading that it has 5G sites live in Dallas and Waco, Texas now. But the operator has not yet launched its commercial 5G service.
The only confirmed 5G device announced for AT&T’s mobile 5G network is the Netgear Nighthawk 5G Mobile Hotspot, which AT&T calls a “puck.”
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“We believe the early 5G opportunities are going to be in enterprise,” Donovan said. He noted that AT&T’s work with Samsung Corp. on“robotic manufacturing” and augmented reality with Magic Leap Inc. will be future 5G enterprise offerings. 5G smartphones will be available in 2019, according to Donovan.
According to The Verge, Verizon will technically have a phone when it launches its mobile 5G offering in early 2019. If you buy the existing, Verizon-exclusive Moto Z3 which is advertised as “5G ready.” Verizon says its first 5G device will be a magnetic, modular 5G Moto Mod attachment you can snap onto that phone to add speedy 5G NR (3GPP Release 15) connectivity.
AT&T and Verizon both say they’re exclusively rolling out millimeter wave (mmWave) radios, which inherently provide far more bandwidth and capacity than today’s networks. But at 39GHz and 28GHz, those millimeter wave signals also don’t travel as far or penetrate buildings as easily as conventional cellular. That means you’ll probably drop down to LTE speeds when you transition indoors, and in order to cover the same area as today’s LTE cell towers, carriers will need to provide many more smaller cell sites. AT&T says it’s focusing on outdoor cells first, but is also looking at indoor ones for public venues like stadiums and concert halls.
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Qualcomm president Cristiano Amon expects the first real wave of 5G smartphones to arrive in Q2 2019 at the earliest. ”We are working, so as early as the second quarter of 2019, you’ll have smartphones being launched across the United States, across Europe, across South Korea, Australia. Some early in the quarter, some later in the quarter… they’re all going to be Android flagship devices,” says Amon. “You go to CES [in January], you’ll start to see a lot of phone announcements; you go to MWC [in February], you’ll see a lot of actual phone launches.”
Author’s Note: Don’t expect a 5G smartphone from Apple till 2020 at the earliest. The company is closely tracking the REAL 5G standard- ITU-R IMT 2020 which won’t be completed till year end 2020. Companion IMT 2020 standards from ITU-T won’t be finalized till 2021 or later.
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“We need to build a crescendo,” says Amon. “You’re not going to change your phone unless the battery life is higher, the form factor is attractive, and you need companies that can actually deliver the performance,” he added.
“Today you stream music everywhere. You don’t download music anymore; even if you have low coverage, you have enough quality to stream music. 5G will do that for video,” Amon says, before moving on to fancier, further-out predictions like unlimited storage and on-demand processing power from the cloud that can, he imagines, virtually cram the power of a Magic Leap-like augmented reality headset into a normal pair of glasses.”
The Verge says that Qualcomm will announce a new Snapdragon processor at its third annual Snapdragon Technology Summit next week in Maui. It is targeted at 5G NR smartphones. A “Snapdragon 1000” processor for a new wave of always-connected Windows laptops will also be introduced at the summit.
5G Security Issues Raise Mission Critical Questions & Issues
The type of AKA associated with 5G (via 3GPP- not ITU-R) should ensure that a device and a 5G network can authenticate each other while maintaining a confidential data exchange and keeping the user’s identity and location private. However, the researchers say, in its current state, the AKA could not fulfill those security aims because the requirements it sets forth are not sufficiently precise.
The team of researchers emphasized their belief that the AKA security for 5G would be superior to the AKA used in 3G and 4G network protocols. It still has gaps, though, including one that shows a phone’s presence in the vicinity without disclosing its owner’s identity. Moreover, this vulnerable version of the AKA could result in a person getting wrongfully charged for a third party’s usage of the 5G network.
The published paper about these findings recommends fixes. They include explicitly requiring intended security properties currently missing from the AKA and modifying the key-confirmation component so it offers a provably secure solution. Overall, the researchers say the AKA does not adequately protect privacy from active attackers but admit remedying that problem would not be straightforward.
In an attempt to implement more security in the AKA, the researchers have reached out to 3GPP and hope to engage in a joint effort to improve the protocol before 5G’s widespread rollout. Also, the European Union Agency for Network and Information Security, or ENISA, released a different report warning that identified flaws with signaling protocols on the 2G, 3G and 4G networks could appear in the 5G network.
Ericsson show there could be 3.5 billion Internet of Things units by 2023 — equalling five times the number of connected devices used now. Additionally, the company forecasts that 5G networks will spur the growth of Internet-connected devices.
People became familiar with the security weaknesses of IoT devices when cybercriminals first targeted them with distributed denial of service attacks several years ago.
An insecure 5G network sets the stage for increasingly widespread attacks due to 5G’s high-speed bandwidth, which increases the available attack points. It’s not difficult to imagine a business using IoT sensors within a factory setting and getting shut down due to a DDoS attack.
Chip architecture company Arm is working on a software stack that would let IoT devices run with SIM card chips, thereby making them similar to smartphones with mobile data plans. Then, it would not be necessary to connect IoT devices via Wi-Fi. However, hackers can attack SIM cards and make them unusable. They can also distribute malware through text messages during SIM card attacks.
It’s too soon to say whether hackers will exploit SIM vulnerabilities in IoT devices that may eventually include them, but the possibility is there. In any case, it’s evident that the opportunities 5G offers could spur hackers’ efforts to launch increasingly devastating attacks using methods people already know, as well as wholly new techniques.
“5G doesn’t necessarily changes the risk factors we have today,” said Tom Lally, vice president of sales for data storage and management company, DataSpan, Inc. “But it is going to exponentially increase the threat vectors and opportunities for attackers to exploit.”
“5G is going to enable businesses to connect more and more devices at higher speeds so more data can be consumed at much faster rates,” he says. “Thus, increasing the capacity and data flows in and out of the datacenter. So if you have more devices connected and more traffic flows, then you have more potential vulnerabilities derived from the increase in new vectors.”
“It’s going to become more important than ever to have proper monitoring, be able to identify attacks once inside, and have the capability to respond effectively, to remediate any potential issue,” says Lally. “At the end of the day, you’re still looking for anomalies, you’re just going to have more. So the ability to swiftly identify and respond will be critical to minimizing risk.”
It is both valuable and admirable that researchers endeavored to bring the security concerns mentioned here to light. However, it’s crucial for people to remember that 5G is a pioneering technology. Besides these potential problems, there are inevitable risks not anticipated yet in these early stages.
Conversely, there are unforeseen benefits that are more specific than the advantages so often highlighted in media coverage of the 5G network. For example, some of the inventions people rely on soon might not have been possible to develop on older networks. In order to enjoy all those advantages to the fullest, it’s necessary to continually prioritize 5G network security.
References:
UPDATE:
The real work on 5G security is being done by 3GPP with technical specification (TS) 33.501 Security architecture and procedures for 5G system being the foundation 5G security document. That 3GPP spec was first published in Release 16, but the latest version dated 16 December 2020 is targeted at Release 17. You can see all versions of that spec here.
3GPP’s 5G security architecture is designed to integrate 4G equivalent security. In addition, the reassessment of other security threats such as attacks on radio interfaces, signaling plane, user plane, masquerading, privacy, replay, bidding down, man-in-the-middle and inter-operator security issues have also been taken in to account for 5G and will lead to further security enhancements.
Another important 3GPP Security spec is TS 33.51 Security Assurance Specification (SCAS) for the next generation Node B (gNodeB) network product class, which is part of Release 16. The latest version is dated Sept 25, 2020.
Here’s a chart on 3GPP and GSMA specs on 5G Security, courtesy of Heavy Reading:
