5G monetization
ABI Research: Expansion of 5G SA Core Networks key to 5G subscription growth
The number of 5G subscriptions will surge from 934 million in 2022 to 3.1 billion in 2027 -a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 27% – according to a study from ABI Research. Further, 5G traffic is forecast to increase from 293 Exabytes (EB) in 2022 to 2,515 EB in 2027, at a CAGR of 54%.
ABI’s forecast is largely based on an increase in 5G Core (5GC) networks. To date, more than 35 5GC networks are operating in 5G standalone (SA) mode. 5GC is expected to lead to a growth in devices connected to the network and the traffic routed through it.
“5GC holds potential for operators to monetize further existing cellular connectivity for traditional mobile broadband (MBB) use cases but also offers scope for operators to expand cellular capabilities in new domains. Additionally, 5GC also offers innovation potential for committed telcos to establish new operating models for growth outside of the consumer domain,” explains Don Alusha, Senior Analyst, 5G Core and Edge Networks, at ABI Research.
5GC presents Communications Service Providers (CSPs) with a fluid and dynamic landscape. In this landscape, there is no static offering (requirements constantly change), no uniform offering (one shoe does not fit all), and no singular endpoint (one terminal with multiple applications). 5GC guides the industry into edge deployments and topologies. CSPs step out of the four walls of either their virtual Data Center (DC) or physical DC to place network functionality and compute as close to their customers as possible. This constitutes decentralization, a horizontal spread of network assets and technology estate that calls for a ‘spread’ in the operating model.
The shift from a centralized business (e.g. with 4G EPC) to a decentralized business (5G SA core network) stands to be a significant trend in the coming years for the telecoms industry. Against that backdrop, the market will demand that CSPs learn to drive value bottom-up. “What customers need” is the starting point for companies like AT&T, BT, Deutsche Telekom, Orange, and Vodafone. In other words, in this emerging landscape, there will be enterprise-specific, value-based, and niche engagements where the business strategy sets the technology agenda. So, it is rational to conclude that a “bottom-up” approach may be required to deliver unique value and expand business scope. That said, CSPs may be better equipped to drive sustained value creation if they learn to build their value proposition, starting from enterprise and industrial edge and extending to core networks.
“A 5G cloud packet core can potentially unlock new transactions that supplement existing volume-centered modus operandi with a local, bottom-up value play for discrete engagements. But the power of a bottom-up model is not enough. To monetize a 5G cloud packet core at scale, some of the existing top-down intelligence is needed too. Learning how to operate in this hybrid top-down and the emerging bottom-up, horizontally stratified ecosystem is a journey for NTT Docomo, Rakuten Mobile, Singtel, Softbank, and Telstra, among other CSPs. In the impending cellular market, an effective and efficient operating model must contain both control and lack of control, both centralization and decentralization and a hybrid of bottom-up plus some of the ‘standard’ top-down intelligence. The idea is that CSPs’ operating model should flexibly fit and change in line with new growing market requirements, or new growth forays may hit a roadblock,” Alusha concludes.
Editor’s Note:
It’s critically important to understand that the 3GPP defined 5G core network protocols and network interfaces enable the entire mobile system. Those include call and session control, mobility management, service provisioning, etc. Moreover, the 3GPP defined 5G features can ONLY be realized with a 5G SA core network. Those include: Network Automation, Network Function Virtualization, 5G Security, Network Slicing, Edge Computing (MEC), Policy Control, Network Data Analytics, etc
Figure 1: Overview of the 5G system
The 5GC architecture relies on a “Service-Based Architecture” (SBA) framework, where the architecture elements are defined in terms of “Network Functions” (NFs) rather than by “traditional” Network Entities. Via interfaces of a common framework, any given NF offers its services to all the other authorized NFs and/or to any “consumers” that are permitted to make use of these provided services. Such an SBA approach offers modularity and reusability.
Figure 2: 5G SA Core Network Architecture
The 5G SA architecture can be seen as the “full 5G deployment,” not needing any part of a 4G network to operate.
Finally, 3GPP has not liased their 5G system architecture specifications to ITU-T so there are no ITU-T standards for 5G SA Core Network or any other 5G non-radio specification. Instead, 3GPP sends their specs to ETSI which rubber stamps them as “ETSI standards.”
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These findings are from ABI Research’s 5G Core Market Status and Migration Analysis report. This report is part of the company’s 5G Core & Edge Networks research service, which includes research, data, and analyst insights. Based on extensive primary interviews, Application Analysis reports present an in-depth analysis of key market trends and factors for a specific technology.
About ABI Research
ABI Research is a global technology intelligence firm delivering actionable research and strategic guidance to technology leaders, innovators, and decision makers around the world. Our research focuses on the transformative technologies that are dramatically reshaping industries, economies, and workforces today.
References:
https://www.3gpp.org/technologies/5g-system-overview#
https://www.nokia.com/networks/core/5g-core/
A few key 3GPP Technical Specifications (TSs) are listed here:
- TS 22.261, “Service requirements for the 5G system”.
- TS 23.501, “System architecture for the 5G System (5GS)”
- TS 23.502 “Procedures for the 5G System (5GS)
- TS 32.240 “Charging management; Charging architecture and principles”.
- TS 24.501 “Non-Access-Stratum (NAS) protocol for 5G System (5GS); Stage 3”
- TS 38.300 “NR; NR and NG-RAN Overall description; Stage-2”
PwC report on Monetizing 5G should be a wake up call to network operators!
A PwC report titled, “The challenge of monetizing 5G,” states that capital expenditures and operating expenses will likely be very high with the deployment of 5G standalone networks and their fully virtualized, cloud-native architectures. Yet returns have been anemic across all generations, ranging from 1.5% to 4.5% of return on assets.
PwC’s 26th Annual Global CEO Survey found that 46% of telco CEOs believe that if their companies continue on their current paths, their businesses would not be economically viable in 10 years.
Source: PwC
As 5G becomes an everyday reality for both investors and consumers, carriers are going to face increasing pressure on two fronts:
1. Improve return on assets
As capital markets and stakeholders begin to focus on investment returns in a high-inflation environment, there will be growing scrutiny on telcos and wireless carriers, especially in comparison to other capital-intensive investment opportunities. An exemplar cloud services provider (CSP) has demonstrated ROA of 17% to 20%+ over the past five years, which compares to the 2% to 3% ROA range of MNOs. The ROA of MNOs approximates that of regulated entities like utilities, which explains investor angst.
2. Deliver on demanding service-level agreements to support 5G “killer apps,” such as metaverse applications (really?)
Improving ROA is intrinsically tied to successfully managing the costs and revenues of 5G applications. Many operators face a growing clamor from application providers and up-stack players to create “metaverse-capable networks,” without much clarity on how application revenue will be shared with them. Network operators risk becoming trapped in a “give more, get less” scenario of providing pure-play connectivity, while up-stack companies monetize the 5G applications.
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For those who believe 5G FWA is the way to monetize 5G, PwC warned that’s not likely. The market research firm’s analysis showed FWA services could cost more than 22-times as much as mobile connectivity services. That’s due to costs associated with delivering data tied to specific latency or QoS service-level agreements (SLAs). Immersive and augmented experiences — such as virtual-reality apps, mobile metaverse and gaming — could cost three to four times as much. Network costs related to the Internet of Things (IoT) are even more challenging to estimate and track, primarily because of the extremely wide range of connected devices and applications available.
The report also found that FWA services could have up to 40-times less revenue potential. This is due to FWA services being price limited by competing fiber or cable internet options.
“Most FWA subscribers are willing to pay only as much as wireline plans cost, yet they expect a similar quality of service for internet connectivity,” the report notes.
PwC Partner Dan Hays explained during an interview with SDx Central at the MWC Barcelona 2023 event that operators should approach FWA and other alternative 5G connection services like IoT with reasonable financial and operational expectations. “Fixed-wireless access is a great way to fill out excess capacity, if you have it,” Hays said. “You see some of the carriers making that play.”
“It’s not a cure all by any means,” Hays said, explaining, “we look at it as not a business model but really a technology. It’s a technology choice that you can use.”
Hays said that operators are indeed being “really thoughtful” in managing capacity to serve FWA customers, but that can potentially run into a problem down the road where a particular site can no longer support a high-bandwidth FWA connection. “Do they fire you as a customer at some point,” he said.
In conclusion, PwC states:
Carriers will be increasingly challenged to demonstrate better returns on invested capital for massive 5G capital outlays, while simultaneously meeting the demanding service-level agreements of future 5G applications. Network costs are likely higher — and revenue potential is likely lower — than carriers understand for these applications. Critical strategies for improving ROA and monetizing 5G successfully involve accurately valuing network features, quantifying network costs and communicating them to all stakeholders, as well as improving 5G offer management, pricing and service evolution.
References:
https://www.pwc.com/us/en/tech-effect/emerging-tech/5g-monetization.html
Juniper Research: 5G to Account for 80% of Operator Revenue by 2027; 6G Requires Innovative Technologies
5G to Account for 80% of Operator Revenue by 2027:
Juniper Research has forecast that communications operators are likely to generate $625B from 5G services globally by 2027, a substantial rise from the $310bn predicted for the end of 2023. The new report, Operator revenue strategies: Business models, emerging technologies & market forecasts 2023-2027, forecasts that 80% of global operator-billed service revenue will be attributable to 5G by 2027; allowing operators to secure a return on investment into their 5G networks. However, the increasing implementation of eSIMs into new devices will drive global cellular data traffic to grow by over 180% between 2023 and 2027, as data traffic is offloaded from fixed and Wi-Fi networks to 5G.
Juniper Research noted that the increasing implementation of embedded subscriber identity modules (eSIMs) into new devices would drive global cellular data traffic to grow by over 180% between 2023 and 2027, as data traffic is offloaded from fixed and Wi-Fi networks to 5G. Previous Juniper studies have observed that after spending more than a decade offering a potential breakthrough in mobile communications, embedded eSIM technology has enjoyed noticeable growth in the past 12 months, making its way from smartphones to smart devices. The report also calculated that, driven by Apple’s innovation disrupting the smartphone sector, the value of the global eSIM market was expected increase from $4.7bn in 2023 to $16.3bn by 2027.
Juniper Research author Frederick Savage commented: “eSIM-capable devices will drive significant growth in cellular data, as consumers leverage cellular networks for use cases that have historically used fixed networks. Operators must ensure that networks, including 5G and upcoming 6G networks, are future‑proofed by implementing new technologies across the entirety of networks.”
6G Development Necessitates Innovative Technologies:
To prepare for this increasing demand in cellular data, the report predicts that 6G standards must adopt innovative technologies that are not currently used in 5G standards. It identified NTNs (Non‑terrestrial Networks) and sub-1THz frequency bands as key technologies that must be at the center of initial trials and tests of 6G networks, to provide increased data capabilities over existing 5G networks.
However, the research cautions that the increased cost generated by the use of satellites for NTNs and the acquisition costs of high-frequency spectrum will create longer timelines for securing return on 6G investment for operators. As a result, it urges the telecommunications industry to form partnerships with specialists in non-terrestrial connectivity; thus benefitting from lower investment costs into 6G networks.
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References:
https://www.juniperresearch.com/pressreleases/operator-5g-revenue-to-reach-$625bn-by-2027
Juniper Research: CPaaS Gobal Market to Reach $29 Billion by 2025
Juniper Research: 5G connectivity opportunity for the connected car market
Juniper Research: 5G Fixed Wireless Access to Generate $2.5 Billion in Operator Revenue by 2023
Ericsson Mobility Report: 5G monetization depends on network performance
A special Ericsson Mobility Report – called the Business Review edition – addresses monetization opportunities as they relate to 5G. Flattening revenues have been a challenge for service providers in all parts of the world, often impacting network investment decisions as part of their business growth strategies, known as ‘monetization’ in the industry.
The report highlights a positive revenue growth trend since the beginning of 2020 in the top 20* 5G markets – accounting for about 85 percent of all 5G subscriptions globally – that correlates with increasing 5G subscription penetration in these markets.
The report finds:
- Tiered pricing models are key for service providers, both for effectively addressing the individual needs of each customer and for continuing to drive long-term revenue growth.
- The top 20 5G markets have seen a significant network performance boost following the introduction of 5G services.
- After a period of slow or no growth, wireless service revenue curves are again pointing upwards in these leading markets. This correlate with 5G subscription penetration growth.
- In the top 20 5G markets, the average downlink throughput has increased by 4.3 times over the past 5 years. This is 32 percent more than other markets on a global level, showing the positive impact 5G has had on network performance and user experience. The most significant network performance improvement in the top 20 5G markets was in 2020, following the introduction of 5G NSA network services.
- In the top 20 5G markets, the median downlink throughput of 5G is 5.8 times higher than the throughput of 4G (187 Mbps vs. 32 Mbps) in Q3 2022. This performance boost is what service providers could offer to consumers as an immediate benefit of upgrading to 5G.
Fredrik Jejdling, Executive Vice President and Head of Networks, Ericsson, says: “Meeting our customers’ challenges is at the heart of our R&D efforts and every resulting product we develop. The link between 5G uptake and revenue growth in the top 20 5G markets underlines that not only is 5G a game changer, but that early adopters benefit. What is particularly encouraging about this is that while 5G is still at a relatively early phase, it is growing fast with proven early use cases and a clear path to medium and long-term use cases.”
As expected, Enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB) is the main early use case for 5G, driven by increasing geographical coverage and differentiated offerings. More than one billion 5G subscriptions are currently active across some 230 live commercial networks globally. 5G eMBB offers the fastest revenue opportunities for 5G, as it is an extension of service providers’ existing business, relying on the same business models and processes. Even in the top 20 5G markets, about 80 percent of consumers have yet to move to 5G subscriptions – one pointer to the potential for revenue growth.
As highlighted in the November 2022 Ericsson Mobility Report, Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) is the second biggest early 5G use case, particularly in regions with unserved or underserved broadband markets. FWA offers attractive revenue growth potential for CSPs as it largely utilizes mobile broadband assets. FWA connections are forecast to top 300 million within six years.
Beyond consumer subscribers, there are growing opportunities in enterprise and public sector applications across the world. Ericsson sas that 5G enables significant value for enterprises, with private 5G networks and wireless wide area networks being deployed for enterprise and industrial use.
Upgrading existing 4G sites to 5G has the potential to realize increases of 10 times in capacity and reduce energy consumption by more than 30 percent, offering the possibility of growing revenue and lowering costs, while addressing sustainability.
Jejdling adds: “Revenue growth and sustainability are recurring themes in my discussions with customers. In this special Ericsson Mobility Report edition, we have explored how service providers are tapping 5G opportunities. We see initial signs of revenue growth in advanced 5G markets with extensive coverage build-out and differentiated service offerings. An equally crucial aspect of 5G is that it brings cost advantages and helps service providers handle the data growth needed to drive future revenue. This can make 5G the growth catalyst that the market has been waiting for.”
Read the full Ericsson Mobility Report Business Review Edition report here.
*Note: The markets categorized as the Top 20 5G markets in the report are: Australia, Bahrain, China, Denmark, Finland, Hong Kong, Ireland, Japan, Kuwait, Monaco, Norway, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan, the UAE, the UK and the US.
They were selected on the basis of 5G subscription penetration. These markets represent 85 percent of all 5G subscriptions globally – with each market having 5G penetration above 15 percent.
Related links:
Ericsson Mobility Report site
Ericsson 5G
Ericsson 4G and 5G Fixed Wireless Access
Breaking the energy curve
5G the next wave – what does consumers want
GSMA: Europe’s 5G rollout is too slow at 6% of mobile customer base
GSMA says in order to stay competitive European economies must ‘digitalize’ themselves through faster 5G rollouts and make a fair contribution. The telco trade body and owner of MWC event has released its 2022 Mobile Economy Report for Europe, in which it states the EU will not meet its ‘digital decade goals’ unless it starts rolling out 5G faster across the continent.
In 2021, 474 million people in Europe (86% of the population) were subscribed to mobile services, and this is expected to grow to 480 million by 2025.
The majority of countries in Europe have now deployed commercial 5G services, and nearly two thirds of wireless network operators in the region have launched 5G networks. At the end of June 2022, 108 operators in 34 markets across Europe had launched commercial 5G services, while consumer uptake was at 6% of the mobile customer base. Norway trended above this with 16% of its citizens using 5G, followed by Switzerland (14%), Finland (13%), the UK (11%) and Germany (10%).
GSMA forecasts that by 2025, there will be 311 million 5G connections across Europe, a 44% adoption rate. However, European markets still lag behind global peers such as Japan, South Korea and the U.S. in the adoption of 5G technology. In 2025, the UK and Germany will have the highest 5G adoption rates in Europe at 61% and 59% respectively, compared to 73% in South Korea and 68% in Japan and the U.S. 4G adoption in Europe will peak in 2022 and then decline. However, it is set to remain the dominant technology across the region, accounting for just over half of total connections by 2025.
The pace of 5G coverage expansion across Europe will be a key factor in the transition from 4G to 5G. Although 5G network coverage in Europe will rise to 70% in 2025 (from 47% in 2021), nearly a third of the population will remain without 5G coverage. This compares to 2% or less in South Korea and the U.S.
SOURCE: GSMA
“Europe is adopting 5G faster than ever before, but greater focus on creating the right market conditions for infrastructure investment is needed to keep pace with other world markets. This should include the implementation of the principle of fair contribution to network costs,” said Daniel Pataki, GSMA Vice President for Policy & Regulation, and Head of Europe.
Which of course is a reference to the ‘fair contribution’ argument that telcos and now the GSMA itself has been making for some time now, which in a nutshell says that since internet firms like Netflix and Facebook make tons of money, they should contribute to the building of physical network infrastructure because it is expensive and telcos don’t make as much cash as they used to.
This announcement from the GSMA goes a bit further than saying it’s unfair that content providers make much more margin streaming TV shows that telcos do on digging holes and dragging up cell towers, and seems to be asserting that unless something is done about all this then the entire continent of Europe will become uncompetitive on the world stage.
As economies and societies around the world digitalize, the acceleration of 5G in Europe is necessary to ensure that traditional industrial and manufacturing strengths are not dragged down by weaknesses in the ICT sector. To achieve this, it is vital to create the right conditions for private infrastructure investment, network modernization and digital innovation. A financially sustainable mobile sector is key to the delivery of innovative services and the deployment of new networks.
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References:
https://www.gsma.com/mobileeconomy/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/051022-Mobile-Economy-Europe-2022.pdf
How 5G network operators can stay competitive and grow their business
By Shekar Ayyar (edited by Alan J Weissberger)
Introduction:
New services enabled by 5G and the cloud present a significant business opportunity, but upgrading existing network infrastructure to deliver these services can be a challenge amid the ongoing supply-chain disruptions and significant economic volatility.
But that’s exactly what communications service providers (CSPs) need to do to stay competitive and ensure that they have the right infrastructure for success in the future.
This article suggests how this can be accomplished. Let’s first look at 5G use cases as illustrated below:
Image Credit: https://www.rajarshipathak.com/2020/01/requirements-for-5g-network-monetization-solution.html
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Discussion:
1. Introduce new services while being smart about infrastructure investments
5G requires an upgrade in network infrastructure to deliver more bandwidth, faster processing and lower latency. This transition impacts all parts of the network, from the access layer to the edge, across the transport layer and into the network core. And increasingly, it requires connectivity to multi-cloud environments, as several workloads are hosted there.
CSPs that are deploying 5G need to adopt agile, open, software-driven approaches and modern networks that are cost effective, efficient and programmable and allow them to deploy services at the edge all the way into the cloud. With the right technology, CSPs (and enterprises) are better positioned for new service creation to drive topline improvement, increase performance, enable quality of service and reduce costs to deliver bottom line improvement.
The right infrastructure can enable CSPs to launch new services like network slicing, multi-access edge computing (MEC) and multi-cloud networking (MCN), which can boost the top line in a world of declining average revenue per user (ARPU). Manufacturing automation is just one example of network slicing delivering benefits through dedicated bandwidth for IoT devices. And when network operators combine that with MEC in a low-latency environment, they can get much faster response rates to enable automation and machine learning in real time. In addition, MCN enables CSPs and co-location providers to offer secure multi-cloud connectivity to enterprises, on demand and as a service.
Software-based infrastructure that leverages compute resources delivers operational savings because it allows CSPs to use their infrastructure for many different use cases, which makes their networks much more efficient. This is akin to the efficiencies that virtual machines (VMs), which let multiple applications or instances run on a single server, brought to the data center.
2. Avoid doubling down on outdated tech, opt for next-gen programmable networks
Yet many network operators continue to rely on legacy networking equipment. That’s problematic because legacy networking technology is hardware-centric and tied to specific silicon choices, and does not deliver protection against supply-chain shortages and volatility. When CSPs and enterprises experience vendor lock-in, they become completely reliant and stake all aspects of their network on that one vendor: speed of innovation, pricing power and supply availability. This is risky, as evidenced by the recent chip shortages that all industries have witnessed.
But software-based networking can run on merchant silicon and purpose-built switch and router hardware, or on servers. It disaggregates the network stack, making it highly programmable for maximum agility; scales based on consumption; and works across the access network, edge and core. And it does all of the above using a single operating system, without requiring costly integration and in a way that lowers TCO and supply chain risk.
3. Disaggregated solutions break the stronghold that a single vendor can have on a CSP or enterprise.
By adopting this approach, CSPs and enterprises now have a broad choice of silicon as well as a wide range of off-the-shelf white-box platforms. Vendor diversification mitigates any supply-chain challenges. It also gives buyers greater pricing leverage.
And while CSPs and enterprises are controlling their costs and avoiding vendor lock-in, they get the modern networks that they need to move fast and effectively monetize 5G infrastructure.
CSPs and enterprises now have an important choice to make. Do they remain locked into legacy technology or attempt to integrate piecemeal open networking solutions? Or do they want to move into the future with minimal risk and maximum revenue potential and ease?
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Shekar Ayyar is chairman and CEO of Arrcus, the hyperscale networking software company and a leader in core-to-edge network infrastructure.
MoffettNathanson: 5G use cases and revenue streams have not yet materialized
Status of 5G Use Cases:
- Multi-access Edge Compute (MEC) remains relatively intangible, and is likely to be fiercely competitive (hyper-scalers/cloud services, and even tower operators, likely better positioned).
- IoT similarly has not demonstrated material revenue upside potential for carriers.
- Private 5G networks may not include carriers at all; and when they do, it is unclear that carriers will achieve attractive revenue splits with the (many) other participants in the value chain (systems integrators, software providers, hardware providers, security providers, hyperscalers).
- Fixed wireless access has emerged as a “consolation prize,” with incremental revenue but at very low revenue/bit, potentially significantly taxing network resources in a way other 5G applications do not.
Editor’s Notes:
The URLLC use case envisioned by the ITU does not exist because the 3GPP Release 16 URLLC in the RAN spec has still n not been completed and the ITU-R M.2150 recommendation uses 3GPP Release 15 URLLC which does not meet the ITU-R M.2410 performance requirements.
Also, the true 5G features, such as network slicing, automation/virtualization and security, can only be realized via a 5G SA core network for which there are relatively few.
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Telco incumbents always believe the answer is to “move up the (protocol) stack”… but they face much better-equipped competitors in the cloud service providers (Amazon, Microsoft, Google etc.).
Summary and Conclusions:
In our view, the broadband slowdown appears to owe more to a broad market deceleration than to significant shifts in market share…
• Cable broadband churn is at all-time lows
• TelCo broadband gains have not accelerated
• A significant portion of FWA appears to be market expansion
…so pricing and capital intensity do not appear to be at significant risk.
Footprint expansion initiatives are likely sufficient to keep broadband net add growth at least narrowly positive.
Wireless is now Cable’s Act III
Reference:
Moffett Nathanson Oct 2022 Slide Deck (subscribers only)
Viavi’s State of 5G report finds 1,947 5G cities (635 new) -mostly NSA- at end of 2021
As of end-December, the number of cities worldwide with 5G networks was 1,947 , with 635 new cities added in 2021, according to the latest Viavi Solutions report ‘The State of 5G.’
By the end of January 2022, 72 countries had 5G networks, with Argentina, Bhutan, Kenya, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Malta and Mauritius coming online in the second half of 2021.
Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) passed Asia Pacific including Greater China (APAC), to become the region with the most 5G cities, at 839. APAC has 689 5G cities and the Americas has 419.
China has the most 5G cities (356), ahead of the US (296) and the Philippines (98). However, more than half of China’s so called 5G subscribers are on 4G networks. Robert Clark of Light Reading wrote: “China has tried to kick-start 5G with low prices, with the result that it has a huge population of 5G subscribers on 4G networks. Less than half of China Mobile’s 467 million 5G subs are actually using 5G – a ratio that has remained constant for the past year.”
Most 5G networks deployed are Non-Standalone (NSA) networks. There are only 24 5G Standalone (SA) networks. It is widely considered that many of the next-generation use cases and monetization models associated with 5G, beyond enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB) will only be possible when Standalone 5G networks built on new 5G core networks are in place.
The State of 5G also highlights the growing Open RAN ecosystem, combining mobile operators as well as software and infrastructure vendors, seeking to develop an open, virtualized Radio Access Network (RAN) with embedded Artificial Intelligence (AI) control. As of March 2022, 64 operators have publicly announced their participation in the development of Open RAN networks. This breaks down to 23 live deployments of Open RAN networks, 34 in the trial phase with a further seven operators that have publicly announced they are in the pre-trial phase.
As of March 2022, 64 operators publicly announced their participation in the development of Open RAN networks, of which 23 were live deployments, 34 in the trial phase and another 7 operators in the pre-trial phase.
“5G continued to expand, despite the headwinds of a global pandemic,” said Sameh Yamany, CTO, VIAVI Solutions. “What comes next in 5G is the reinforcement of networks. This will take a couple of forms. Firstly, we expect to see more Standalone 5G networks, which will deliver on much of the promise of 5G, both for the operator and for the wider ecosystem of users. And secondly, we expect to see Open RAN continue its rapid development and start to become a de facto standard. VIAVI will continue to play a central role in testing those new networks as they are built and expanded.”
References:
https://www.viavisolutions.com/en-us/literature/state-5g-may-2022-posters-en.pdf
https://www.lightreading.com/asia/consumers-still-seeking-reason-to-buy-5g/d/d-id/777250?
Moody’s skeptical on 5G monetization; Heavy Reading: hyperscalers role in MEC and telecom infrastructure
In a recent “Top of Mind” series report, Moody’s said, “The adoption of 5G is gaining momentum. Yet we question how fast companies can roll out 5G and the ability to generate revenue from applications based on 5G technology.”
“We do not expect material revenue increases in the global telecom sector from 5G in the 2022-2025 period. This is because 5G will mainly evolve around enhanced mobile broadband, which will be broadly similar to 4G.”
Wireless network operators have invested heavily in 5G spectrum, network infrastructure upgrades and the credit rating and financial research firm concludes global carriers’ capex will continue to rise through 2025. That’s despite more tepid carrier capex forecasts from Dell’Oro Group and others.
“Global capex growth is expected to moderate from 9 percent in 2021 to 3 percent in 2022, before tapering off in 2023 and 2024,” wrote Stefan Pongratz of Dell’Oro.
Wireless carriers’ capex as a share of revenue leveled off at 16% globally in 2019 and 2020, inched up to 17% in 2021, and is expected to hit 18% for the next four years, according to Moody’s.
Wireless telcos have cumulatively spent $200 billion globally on 5G spectrum to date, according to Moody’s, and GSMA predicts operators will invest about $510 billion on 5G-related infrastructure and services from 2022 to 2025.
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On the income side of the ledger, wireless carriers have experienced a prolonged period of flat to declining revenue. Rising costs and flat revenue portends a rough four-year stretch for operators, and there’s little to suggest that dynamic will change by 2026. One analyst said the only real revenue generator for wireless telcos in the last few years has been selling their cell towers!
The largely unmet promise of 5G, with no real “killer apps,” follows previous disappointments for carriers in the 3G and 4G time periods. Indeed, they did not make any money of mobile apps, cloud computing/storage, interactive gaming, edge computing or really any value added services.
“This phase carries the greatest uncertainty about companies’ capital spending. As a result, we remain cautious when projecting revenue growth derived from 5G until there is clarity on the business case, especially given the lessons of limited monetization of 4G and 3G,” Moody’s analysts wrote.
Specialized services for enterprises continue to be the most compelling use cases for 5G, and additional IoT applications could drive incremental revenue gains after 2025 but those are unlikely to justify carriers’ significant 5G investments, the financial research firm said.
While ultra low latency might be important (assuming 3GPP release 16 “URLLC in the RAN” spec is completed, performance tested and deployed), the resulting “almost immediate network response time is only relevant in specialized use cases, Indeed, it has become apparent that the most compelling use cases for 5G revolve around businesses rather than residential consumers,” the Moody’s analysts wrote.
“The wide array of potential applications — such as autonomous vehicles, robotics, and smart homes — places different demands on networks in terms of speed and latency, in contrast to previous generations that focused on one major advance, such as broadband mobile video with 4G or web browsing with 3G,” the analysts wrote.
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Moody’s missed a very crucial point related to 5G revenues: that the hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft, Google) will get an increasing share of 5G SA core network services and MEC revenues. That’s because of the partnerships wireless carriers have made with the big cloud service providers.
Heavy Reading noted that in a recent blog post. Heavy Reading conducted a survey in collaboration with Accedian, Kontron and Red Hat. The survey questioned 82 communications service providers (CSPs) that have launched edge computing solutions or are planning to do so within 24 months. One of the objectives of the survey was to examine the go-to-market strategies of the CSP and the role the hyperscalers have assumed in those strategies.
Hyperscalers have introduced dedicated edge products and embedded their software stack into operator infrastructure, including Internet of Things (IoT) devices and network gateways. They have introduced products dedicated to the telco market, such as Wavelength from Amazon Web Services (AWS), Azure Edge Zones from Microsoft and Anthos for Telecom from Google Cloud. According to Heavy Reading’s survey results, their efforts have paid off, as CSPs have unquestionably decided to partner with hyperscalers in their multi-access edge computing (MEC) services.
Q: Why do you plan to partner with a hyperscaler to deliver your edge computing? Select up to three. (n=82)
Source: Heavy Reading
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Heavy Reading’s most recent edge computing survey determined that the pivot to improved customer experience is the key goal of edge network deployments and that CSPs must clear new paths to achieve this goal. They must do so by:
- Leaning into automation, particularly in overall lifecycle management.
- Building in comprehensive security protections from the design phase forward.
- Enhancing performance control through automation and AI. CSPs’ growing collaborations with hyperscalers are key to achieving these goals and improving ease of deployment, accelerating time-to-market and enhancing cloud-based security.
Heavy Reading’s survey results show that carriers have committed to edge computing and are progressing rapidly with implementations. The deployment of edge computing brings with it issues of scale and complexity. CSPs are most concerned with overall network performance and security. In fact, those companies that have already deployed the edge have a heightened concern about these issues. They are looking for help from their traditional vendor and integrator partners, from their network monitoring and assurance tools and from the hyperscalers.
References:
Nokia survey finds CSPs are not monetizing 5G services- BSS must be improved
A Nokia-commissioned survey of 100 communication service providers (CSPs) around the world found only 11% have sufficient Business Support Systems (BSS) in place for effective 5G monetization. Yet this author believes such BSS are not the key issue in monetizing 5G. The IEEE Techblog which has repeatedly stated there are currently no compelling 5G use cases without URLLC in the RAN/core and cloud native 5G SA Core networks deployed. Also, a cloud-native software architecture is key to achieving a 5G-ready monetization system, with many benefits that include limitless scalability, and an ideal platform for AI, analytics, and edge computing capabilities for ultra-low latency use cases.
An overwhelming number of survey respondents, at 98%, indicated they would have to alter their BSS in the coming years in order to put proper, up-to-date monetization tools in place.
The survey also found that nearly 70% of CSPs are now considering deploying cloud-based monetization solutions. In addition, two-thirds of respondents indicated they believe that real-time charging is essential for 5G monetization, in part because of its ability to help CSPs respond quickly to customer demands.
More details on the research can be found here.
John Abraham, Principal Analyst at Analysys Mason, said: “Most Service Providers are ill-prepared to effectively engage and monetize emerging 5G-enabled use cases and need to urgently transform their BSS. With Service Providers looking to get that ROI on 5G, now is the time for them to invest in flexible monetization systems especially as 5G brings to the forefront the importance of real-time charging capabilities. Given Nokia’s portfolio and expertise, they are well placed to support CSPs on this journey.”
Hamdy Farid, Senior Vice President, Business Applications at Nokia, said: “To unlock 5G revenues and move beyond the traditional data plan model, a major shift among CSPs is needed toward adaptable monetization systems that utilize cloud-native, scalable and flexible infrastructure and open APIs for easy integration and deployment; and I think this survey highlights the work still to be done.”
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Nokia’s Head of Digital Business within CNS Jonah Pransky shared with RCR Wireless News that moving to cloud-native BSS “is becoming increasingly important to ensure greater business agility.”
“This is particularly true when it comes to efficiently monetizing 5G and capturing new revenue streams that 5G makes possible, including differentiated pricing, network slicing, and flexible product offerings, such as IoT and B2B2X. The 5G Standalone [SA] network is built on cloud-native network functions that provide the flexibility and agility to define, create and launch new services faster than ever before. 5G monetization systems, starting with the 5G charging function, need to be based on the same agile technology, or risk becoming a bottleneck in the release of new offers to the market, and ultimately slow the ROI that service providers must see sooner rather than later.”
Pransky also indicated that real-time charging is important for 5G-ready monetization systems, but provided a longer view of what capabilities are necessary, including support for open APIs, the enablement of new network-sliced based services easily and efficiently, meeting the CX demands of digital users for simple, transparent digital first commerce and finally, and being designed with no-code configurability.
While CSPs are still behind in their 5G monetization journeys, Pransky said that because the industry is moving away from large software monoliths and towards modular microservices-based applications, there is an opportunity for service providers to take a phased approach to transforming their monetization systems for 5G.
“That means they can begin with the most urgent need, which in this case is the 5G Converged Charging system,” he continued. “There is definitely still time with the roll out of 5G SA accelerating in some regions, but with many still only beginning to prepare for this. The advice [Nokia] would give would be to look for a monetization partner that has actual experience implementing 5G Charging in 5G SA networks in order to avoid potential pitfalls and hit the ground running, prepared for what will be necessary for effective monetization.”
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References:
CSPs are behind in 5G monetization, according to Nokia survey
https://www.rajarshipathak.com/2020/01/requirements-for-5g-network-monetization-solution.html