Gartner: Telecom at the Edge + Distributed Cloud in 3 Stages

Source: Gartner report on Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2020

Communicating to the Edge — The Role of 5G
Connecting edge devices with one another and with back-end services is a fundamental aspect of IoT and an enabler of smart spaces. 5G is the next-generation cellular standard after 4G Long Term Evolution (LTE; LTE Advanced [LTE-A] and LTE Advanced Pro [LTE-A Pro]).

Several global standards bodies have defined it — International Telecommunication Union (ITU), 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) [NOT A STANDARDS BODY] and ETSI [Has submitted their IMT 2020 RIT to ITU-R WP5D jointly with DECT Forum].

Successive iterations of the 5G standard also will incorporate support for NarrowBand Internet of Things (NB-IoT) aimed at devices with low-power and low-throughput requirements. New system architectures include core network slicing as well as edge computing.
5G addresses three key technology communication aspects, each of which supports distinct new services, and possibly new business models (such as latency as a service):

■ Enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB), which most providers will probably implement first.
■ Ultra-reliable and low-latency communications (URLLC), which addresses many existing industrial, medical, drone and transportation requirements where reliability and latency requirements surpass bandwidth needs.
■ Massive machine-type communications (mMTC), which addresses the scale requirements of IoT edge computing.

Use of higher cellular frequencies and massive capacity will require very dense deployments with higher frequency reuse. As a result, we expect that most public 5G deployments will initially focus on islands of deployment, without continuous national coverage. We expect that, by 2020, 4% of network-based mobile communications service providers globally will launch the 5G network commercially. Many CSPs are uncertain about the nature of the use cases and business models that may drive 5G. We expect that, through 2022, organizations will use 5G mainly to support IoT communications, high-definition video and fixed wireless access. The release of unlicensed radio spectrum (Citizens Broadband Radio Service [CBRS] in the U.S., and similar initiatives in the U.K. and Germany) will facilitate the deployment of private 5G (and LTE) networks.

This will enable enterprises to exploit the advantages of 5G technology without waiting for public networks to build out coverage. Identify use cases that definitely require the high-end performance, low latency or higher densities of 5G for edge computing needs.

Map the organization’s planned exploitation of such use cases against the expected rollout by providers through 2023. Evaluate the available alternatives that may prove adequate and more cost-effective than 5G for particular IoT use cases. Examples include low-power wide-area (LPWA), such as 4G LTE-based NB-IoT or LTE Cat M1, LoRa, Sigfox and Wireless Smart Ubiquitous Networks (Wi-SUN).
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Distributed Cloud examines a major evolution in cloud computing where the applications, platforms, tools, security, management and other services are physically shifting from a centralized data center model to one in which the services are distributed and delivered at the point of need. The point of need can extend into customer data centers or all the way to the edge devices.

A distributed cloud refers to the distribution of public cloud services to different locations outside the cloud providers’ data centers, while the originating public cloud provider assumes responsibility for the operation, governance, maintenance and updates. This represents a significant shift from the centralized model of most public cloud services and will lead to a new era in cloud computing.

Concept of Distributed Cloud:

Concept of distributed cloud. 

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Gartner expects distributed cloud computing will happen in three phases:

■ Phase 1: A like-for-like hybrid mode in which the cloud provider delivers services in a distributed fashion that mirror a subset of services in its centralized cloud for delivery in the enterprise.
■ Phase 2: An extension of the like-for-like model in which the cloud provider teams with third parties to deliver a subset of its centralized cloud services to target communities through the third-party provider. An example is the delivery of services through a telecommunications
provider to support data sovereignty requirements in smaller countries where the provider does not have data centers.
■ Phase 3: Communities of organizations share distributed cloud substations. We use the term“substations” to evoke the image of subsidiary stations (like branch post offices) where people gather to use services.

Cloud customers can gather at a given distributed cloud substation to
consume cloud services for common or varied reasons if it is open for community or public use.  This improves the economics associated with paying for the installation and operation of a distributed cloud substation. As other companies use the substation, they can share the cost of
the installation.

We expect that third parties such as telecommunications service providers will explore the creation of substations in locations where the public cloud provider does not have a presence. If the substation is not open for use by others outside the organization that paid for its installation, then the substation represents a private cloud instance in a hybrid relationship with the public cloud. The distributed cloud supports continuously connected and intermittently connected operation of like-for-like cloud services from the public cloud “distributed” to specific and varied locations. This enables low-latency service execution where the cloud services are closer to the point of need in remote data centers or all the way to the edge device itself.

This can deliver major improvements in performance and reduce the risk of global network-related outages, as well as support occasionally connected scenarios. By 2024, most cloud service platforms will provide at least some services that execute at the point of need.

References:

https://emtemp.gcom.cloud/ngw/globalassets/en/doc/documents/432920-top-10-strategic-technology-trends-for-2020.pdf

https://emtemp.gcom.cloud/ngw/globalassets/en/doc/documents/450595-top-strategic-predictions-for-2020-and-beyond.pdf

Gartner Group Innovation & Insight: Cutting Through the 5G Hype

WSJ: China’s financial support aided Huawei’s rise to #1 telecom vendor in the world

China’s tech champion got as much as $75 billion in tax breaks, financing and cheap resources as it became the world’s top telecom vendor

AJW Comment: This is something we’ve thought for years now, but it is not justification for accusing Huawei of spying or hacking for the Chinese government.  In our opinion, Huawei’s rise to the top in telecom was greatly aided by China government financial aid/tax breaks and policy favoring domestic suppliers of both telecom equipment and smart phones/tablets and other network connected gadgets.   Note that China’s three leading telecom network operators- China Telecom, Unicom and Mobile are state owned.   Here’s some revealing documentation:

Huawei (including the HONOR brand) leads the China smartphone market with its market share growing to 36%, reaching a record high. Counterpoint Research, Nov 26, 2019.

 “In the third quarter of this year, Huawei shipped 2.12 million tablets in China with a 37.4% market share, surpassing Apple for the first time as the country’s biggest tablet seller, according to statistics from market research firm IDC.” Nov 27, 2019.

Huawei’s Share of the Global Telecom Market Keeps Growing: “New research from Dell’Oro Group indicates that Huawei’s networking business remains almost completely unaffected by the ongoing political noise surrounding the company. Specifically, the firm found that Huawei’s market share grew from 27.7% in 2018 to 28.1% in the first half of 2019. When looking at Q2 2019 alone, Huawei’s market share improved to 29%. The figures put Huawei at the top of the heap in terms of global telecom equipment vendors. Nokia came in second with 15.7% share in the first half of 2019, according to Dell’Oro, while Ericsson was third with 13.1% share.”

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By Chuin-Wei Yap, Wall Street Journal chuin-wei.yap@wsj.com

Tens of billions of dollars in financial assistance from the Chinese government helped fuel Huawei Technologies Co.’s rise to the top of global telecommunications, a scale of support that in key measures dwarfed what its closest tech rivals got from their governments. A Wall Street Journal review of Huawei’s grants, credit facilities, tax breaks and other forms of financial assistance details for the first time how Huawei had access to as much as $75 billion in state support as it grew from a little-known vendor of phone switches to the world’s largest telecom-equipment company—helping Huawei offer generous financing terms and undercut rivals’ prices by some 30%, analysts and customers say.

Huawei is vying to build next-generation 5G telecom networks around the world. While financial support for favored firms or industries is common in many countries, China’s assistance for Huawei, including tax waivers that began 25 years ago, is among the factors stoking questions about Huawei’s relationship with Beijing.

“While Huawei has commercial interests, those commercial interests are strongly supported by the state,” said Michael Wessel, a member of a U.S. congressional panel that reviews U.S.-China relations, in an interview. The U.S. has raised concerns that use of Huawei’s equipment could pose a security risk, should Beijing request network data from the company. Huawei says it would never hand such data to the (Chinese) government.

The largest portion of assistance—about $46 billion—comes from loans, credit lines and other support from state lenders, the Journal’s review showed. The company saved as much as $25 billion in taxes between 2008 and 2018 due to state incentives to promote the tech sector. Among other assistance, it enjoyed $1.6 billion in grants and $2 billion in land discounts.

Huawei said in a statement that it received “small and non-material” grants to support its research, which it said weren’t unusual. Much of the support—for example, tax breaks to the tech sector—was available to others, it noted.

Wu Bangguo—who as a Chinese vice premier oversaw state-owned companies—assembled a team of auditors after tax breaks for Huawei led to accusations around 1998 that it was evading taxes. Huawei was cleared. PHOTO: XINHUA/ZUMA PRESS

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The Journal in its research made use of public records including company statements and landregistry documents. The Journal verified its methodology with subsidy analysts, including Usha Haley, professor at Wichita State University, and Good Jobs First, a Washington, D.C., organization that criticizes some tax incentives and provides widely consulted subsidy data.

State assistance for Huawei isn’t always quantifiable. In 1999, China’s central government arranged an unusual intervention to rescue the company from allegations of tax fraud, according to accounts by Chinese and other officials. Local tax breaks for Huawei drew anonymous accusations around 1998 that it was evading taxes. As the company’s business slumped, Li Zibin, then mayor of Shenzhen, where Huawei is based, said he took Huawei’s plight to Chinese then-Vice Premier Wu Bangguo.

Mr. Wu, who oversaw state-owned companies, wasn’t sure at first if he should act. He viewed Huawei as privately owned, according to a transcript of Mr. Li’s remarks at a state conference in 2012. Mr. Wu eventually agreed to assemble a team of auditors, Mr. Li said. Huawei was cleared
within weeks. Messrs. Li and Wu didn’t respond to requests for comment by the Journal.

Huawei’s official grants, disclosed in annual reports, total $1.6 billion since 2008. In the five years to 2018, they were 17 times as large as similar subsidies reported by Nokia Corp. of Finland, the world’s second-largest telecom equipment maker. Sweden’s Ericsson AB, the third largest, posted none in the period.

A Chinese flag flutters at the Beijing headquarters of China Development Bank, which has made a $30 billion credit line available for Huawei’s customers. PHOTO: FLORENCE LO/REUTERS

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In China’s southern city of Dongguan, state records show, Huawei bought more than a dozen state-owned parcels in largely uncontested auctions between 2014 and 2018 for its research campus. The company paid prices that were 10% to 50% of average rates for similarly zoned land in Dongguan, according to Chinese property value databases. The discounts saved Huawei some $2 billion, according to a Journal review. Huawei declined to comment on the estimate.  Other savings came from state policies to promote China’s tech sector. Tax deductions and exemptions helped Huawei save up to $25 billion in income, value-added and other taxes in at least the past decade, the Journal estimated. Responding to the estimate, a Huawei spokesman said the company is globally tax-compliant.

In his remarks at the conference, Mr. Li said local officials began waiving or reducing levies on Huawei, including income and value-added taxes, in the early 1990s. Financial support helped the company undercut rivals. In 2010, the European Commission found that Chinese modem exporters including Huawei had benefited from subsidies, according to a confidential report reviewed by the Journal. The commission cut short its probe after the complainant prompting it reached a “cooperation agreement” with the company. Huawei denied receiving such subsidies.

Besides subsidies, Huawei since 1998 has received an estimated $16 billion in loans, export credits, and other forms of financing from Chinese banks for itself or its customers, the Journal found.  China’s state-controlled banking system underpins cheap loans that lower costs for Huawei and its customers to buy its products on credit. State lending facilities for Huawei were among the largest in history.

Mega-lenders China Development Bank (CDB) and Export-Import Bank of China in the last two decades made available more than $30 billion in credit lines for Huawei’s customers. World Bank and official data indicate these banks were lending to the company’s clients in developing economies at some 3% in at least Huawei’s first decade abroad, around half of China’s five-year benchmark rate in since 2004.

A Huawei spokesman told the Journal that CDB’s $30 billion credit line “has seldom been more than 10% subscribed” and that customers’ use of the facility “fluctuates over time.” In 2011, Huawei Deputy Chairman Ken Hu said CDB had lent Huawei’s customers $10 billion since 2004. Huawei said that lenders—which it said were mostly non-Chinese banks—account for only 10% of the company’s financing needs as of the end of last year, funded at commercial rates, with the rest coming from Huawei’s own cash flow and business operations.

“If you’re going to buy a house, and if you are able to say you got backing of a half-million-dollar line of credit, that’s going to make you a much stronger bidder,” said Fred Hochberg, former chairman of U.S. Export-Import Bank. “What Huawei did, cleverly, is to make sure that, when
they made a bid, it came with financing terms” that surpassed those of competitors.

Official data show Swedish export authorities provided some $10 billion in credit assistance for Sweden’s tech-and-telecom sector as of 2018; Finland authorized $30 billion in annual export credit guarantees economywide from 2017. Huawei’s largest American competitor, Cisco Systems Inc., received $44.5 billion in state and federal subsidies, loans, guarantees, grants and other U.S. assistance since 2000, Good Jobs
First data show. Cisco didn’t comment.

China’s foreign ministry said in a statement that Huawei is a private company “like many others in China” whose achievements “are inseparable from a good policy environment.”

In summer 2009, Huawei pitched to Pakistan a surveillance system for its capital, Islamabad. Pakistan’s prime minister accepted, but Islamabad lacked funds and its procurement rules required competitive bidding, Pakistan court filings say.  The Chinese offered a solution. China Ex-Im would lend Pakistan $124.7 million for the project and waive most of the 3% annual interest on the 20-year loan. There was a condition, Pakistan Supreme Court filings show: Pakistan could choose only Huawei. Pakistan’s government
decided to proceed without competitive bidding.

“On the recommendation of Ex-Im Bank, the prime minister of Pakistan selected Huawei,” theninterior minister Ahsan Iqbal told Pakistan officials.
A Chinese embassy report showed Beijing’s then-ambassador to Islamabad officiating at the project’s inauguration in 2016 alongside Pakistan’s interior minister, standing before an array of glowing security monitors. “The Chinese government funded it and Huawei built it,” the embassy said.

Matthew Dalton contributed to this article.

Original article appeared at:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/state-support-helped-fuel-huaweis-global-rise-11577280736 (on line subscription required for access)

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WSJ Addendum: Aid has included tax savings, state credit facilities, land purchases and government grants

Huawei provides relatively limited disclosures on state incentives it receives. A Wall Street Journal review showed Huawei received as much as $75 billion in state financial assistance, including tax savings, state credit facilities, land purchases and government grants.

In its methodology, the Journal sought to estimate how key state fiscal incentives, adjusted to account for changes in their scope over the years, allowed Huawei to spend more freely. The calculations compared Huawei’s tax payments with the company’s projected tax liability in the absence of such incentives.

The Journal’s review excluded other forms of policy support available to Huawei, such as salary tax benefits, property-tax abatements and subsidized raw materials. The review also excluded tax breaks arising from standard accounting policy, such as tax deductibility for expenses including research and development, business and administration.

The Journal used third-party loan databases, company records and state media reports to calculate state loans made available to Huawei. The Journal’s review was based on the face value of the loans, which aren’t equivalent to subsidy amounts.

Also see: How Huawei Took Over the World

Founded in 1987 by former army engineer Ren Zhengfei, Huawei Technologies Co. is a Chinese colossus. The world’s largest supplier of telecom equipment and the No. 2 maker of mobile phones, its technology touches virtually every corner of the globe, and its massive R&D budget has made it a leader in 5G technology. Yet it has long faced scrutiny. Here’s how it found success……

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-huawei-took-over-the-world-11545735603

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Related NY Times article I thought was fascinating:

At the Edge of the World, a New Battleground for the U.S. and China: The Faroe Islands have become perhaps the most unexpected place for the United States and China to tussle over the Chinese tech giant Huawei.

 

 

Strand Consult: 5G in 2019 and 2020 telecom predictions

by John Strand – Strand Consult

Editor’s Note: This article is an abridged version of Strand Consult’s year end telecom review and 2020 forecast.  Copy edits (spelling, grammar) were made for correctness- content has not been altered.  Emphasis (bold font) was added in places the Editor deemed important.

Stand Consult’s full report is here.

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Introduction

Strand Consult has followed telecommunications industry for almost 25 years. 2019 was a year with much political and regulatory attention and a renewed appreciation for how the industry ensures the digital society that is ubiquitous, fast, safe, green, and inclusive.

5G became a mainstream topic in 2019 and rebooted the discussion of the value that telecommunications brings to society including innovation, security, and inclusion.

Consider the many transformations that the industry has delivered from the invention of the telephone, which required a person (a switchboard operator) to connect two people. Today the digital world, including its businesses, the communications of individuals, and the operations of the public sector is predicated on the advanced infrastructure that the telecom industry provides.

In 2019 Strand Consult published many research notes and reports to help telecom companies navigate a complex world. We focused heavily on the problem of Chinese equipment in telecommunications networks. While the media has largely focused on Huawei, the discussion should be broadened to the many companies that are owned or affiliated with the Chinese government including but not limited to TikTok, Lexmark, Lenovo, TCL, and so on. Although some of our customers disagree with our views, Strand Consult’s job is to publish what is actually happening and how policy decisions may affect their business in the future.

5G launched without a great vision
5G is coming faster and stronger than 2G, 3G or 4G. With each new G, implementation and adoption time gets shorter. However regulators in many countries are failing to keep pace with the technology, as they are behind on frequency allocation and rollout policy. Indeed few regulators have succeeded to make infrastructure rollout more efficient or auctions more speedy. The pressure is on the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in 2020 to deliver an auction for the C-band so that the US can stay in the global 5G race and correct for the misguided history of handing out frequency to government users without accountability measures in place.

Strand Consult has worked on these problems for years and notes that it is still too difficult and expensive to role out new network in most countries. See our reports on How mobile operators can reduce cost for mobile masts and improve mast regulationWhy the Quality of Mobile Networks Differs, and How to deploy 5G: Best practices for infrastructure, regulation and business models which describe how to address these challenges effectively. In Denmark Strand Consult has helped to reduced total annual rental costs for mobile masts by about 20 percent. In most countries, 5G will be first marketed as an alternative to fixed line broadband. Wireless solutions based on 5G will help stimulate competition.

The performance of most EU countries on 5G is disappointing. Countries which used to lead the world in mobile standards are no where to be found with 5G. Unless the EU reverses course on its anti-investment telecom policy, don’t expect to see the EU lead in 5G or any other G in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 or for that matter in 2030. See Strand Consult’s research note Five Nordic Prime Ministers signed an agreement on 5G. Here are five reasons why Europe has already lost the 5G race.

5G will be a repeat of 4G in certain ways
Like 4G, most of the value in 5G will accrue to players other than the telecom operators providing the networks. In 4G, most of the value went to smartphone makers and over the top service (OTT) providers such as Google, Facebook, and Apple. In the vast majority of countries, ARPU and earnings for mobile operators have fallen year after year—even though the speed and quality of mobile networks has increased.  Strand Consult would like mobile operators to focus on how partnerships and creative business models can use 5G to create value for their shareholders. Our new research How to deploy 5G: Best practices for infrastructure, regulation and business models can help. Mobile operators have had successful revenue partnerships with premium SMS to develop the service market and MVNO brand strategies to reduce their sales & marketing costs. Operators need to look at these models to find partners for 5G.

OTT, IOT, and all the other services
Already with 5G, we see the world moving to the over the top (OTT) providers and when it comes to Internet of Things (IoT). This creates a challenge for how mobile operators can engage in partnerships and business models. The big question is whether it will be a market that will be dominated by classic mobile operators or by MVNOs like Cisco IoT and Wireless Logic that offer corporate clients one stop shopping. Unless mobile operators are smart, they will relegate themselves to dumb pipes again.

Regulation will hit telecom operators again in 2020
The need for greater security in networks and removing vulnerable elements will hit operators in 2020 with new standards for resilience. While Huawei likes to spin that restrictions on its equipment are mere trade war tactics, the debate about security will become more holistic to encompass the many elements of security including software, practices, and risk management. See Strand Consult’s note on the topic The debate about network security is more complex than Huawei.

The need for network security can be traced through a century of telecom networks. More recently, Strand Consult documented that in 2005, restrictions were placed on Chinese technology for the 3G rollout.  It is telling that the current US President defends European technology companies Ericsson and Nokia while many European operators defend their Chinese suppliers. It will be interesting to see whether the new European Commission will finally ”walk the walk” and demand the same safety and security standards of Chinese companies that European, US, Korean and Japanese firms have had to uphold in EU.

Similar to the financial industry, the telecommunications industry will be subject to accountability requirements and compliance to ensure security. The big question is whether it will be easier and cheaper to meet these requirements when using Chinese equipment. Strand Consult doubts this.

The mobile operator’s classic business model is probably dead and buried
Most of the world’s mobile operators have evolved their business model in face of competition and revenue erosion by OTT players. Mobile operator has realize that revenue from traditional streams of voice, SMS, and MMS is in free fall. In 2020 the industry will see a new direction in which operators divide into infrastructure companies and service companies. We believe that this split comes in many forms and models. We think we will see companies that make a classic split, but we also think that we will see companies that will make more creative splits in which divesting masters and towers is just the first step. We expect this trend could translate to spectrum.  We envision an industry divided into three elements: infrastructure, services and spectrum.

Such fragmentation will require a new view of spectrum and who owns and how to use spectrum. When it comes to spectrum sharing, dynamic spectrum sharing will open up a number of new technical possibilities. The big question is who is going to use spectrum going forward and who is going to own spectrum on the other.

To see the future spectrum market, look at the introduction of CBRS in USA, a model likely to spread and which is creating a new value chain and dynamic market. Many new and exciting companies have already entered and created equipment and services. This is the same dynamic underpinning the introduction of premium SMS, MVNOs and in connection with the app industry that has emerged at the top of the smartphone universe.

There are now four models of spectrum:

1. Licensed spectrum owned by mobile operators.
2. Dedicated spectrum with optional synchronized sharing (see German model).
3. Unlicensed spectrum with asynchronous sharing.
4. Unlicensed spectrum with synchronized sharing.

Of note is massive rollout of 5G and fixed wireless access (FWA) solutions. If 5G is hot in 2020, then 5G/FWA will be super hot in 2020.  Strand Consult’s forthcoming report on 5G/FWA will show how fixed line providers can extend their service and revenue with 5G. The business and economics of this development follow a similar dynamic to the MVNO market, and customers can reuse this knowledge from Strand Consult.

Editor’s Note:  There is no standard for 5G/FWA, as IEEE refused to submit IEEE 802.11ax to ITU-R and there no other contenders have been submitted.  FWA is not a IMT 2020 use case.

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Wireless solutions will battle FTTH for supremacy, but will also partner for opportunity
Remember the many pundits and policymakers who described fiber to the home (FTTH) as the only ”future-proof” solution. Not only was that prediction proven false, but wireless solutions are complements and substitutes. Those FTTH providers which have seen their business languish can get a boost from 5G. Mobile operators aiming for 4G/5G solutions can sharpen competition in the broadband market and cannibalize the DSL/fixed line market.

The year 2020 will see many operators will switch off their 3G network while 2G is on life support. Operators will see value by refarming spectrum to focus on 4G and 5G LTE solutions. The benefits of having a clean 4G / 5G network are so great that upgrading 2G / 3G / 4G to 4G / 5G will mean that operators worldwide will recognize that a total network swap is best.

During the period 2011 – 2016, operators worldwide implemented 4G. At that time, it turned out that the costs associated with rolling out 4G were similar to a network swap and upgrading the existing 2G and 3G networks. During this time many operators replaced their 2G / 3G networks with new networks supporting 2G/3G and 4G. In connection with the introduction of 5G, we will experience the same, and operators such as TDC in Denmark and Telia in Norway have chosen to replace their entire existing network. Read more: The real cost to rip and replace Chinese equipment from telecom networks

Privacy: EU, US and the rest of the world

The drive for online privacy regulation worldwide reflects distrust and disappointment in the large platforms, however regulation frequently has the opposite of the intended effect.  2020 will mark the two-year anniversary of the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) in the European Union. For all the policymakers’ promise of a new level playing field, the largest platform companies have increaszed their market share and revenue in the region.  In some two decades of successive data protection regulation in the EU, small and medium sized internet companies have failed to grow, and consumer trust online is at its lowest point ever, according to Eurostat. This serves as a proof point for the historical US approach, supporting its risk-based policy which focuses on making rules based upon the sensitivity of data; preserving the mutual interests in accurate data between the user and collector of data; and solving for real, not theoretical, harms. The US has some two dozen information privacy laws and is predicated on a 220 year legal tradition which can deliver tougher oversight, enforcement and penalties that the European approach.  A new California law will come into play in 2020 which will likely precipate Congress to make federal rules.

A new appreciation for the role that telecom companies provide for society
2019 was the year in which the telecommunications industry may have to acknowledge that the demands placed on the communication solutions used by the police, the fire department and other emergency units will spread to the mobile networks. We are talking about requirements that are closely linked to the national security policy.

In Europe and in large parts of the world, the focus is on protecting a democratic social model where freedom, freedom of expression, privacy and human rights are important elements. Europe attempts to focus on the rights of citizens, including data protection, and many want to preserve a role for technology to improve the quality of life and add value to our society. In a dictatorship like China, technology is instrumental for the state to fulfill its goals, regardless of whether it improves quality of life or promotes human rights.

Conclusion
We hope that our research note inspires you over the year. 2019 was Strand Consult’s 24th year in business and its 19th year in making predictions in which we try to inform, delight, and challenge our audience. We invite you to see for yourself whether we were right over the years.

Thank you for another great year. Merry Christmas and all the best for 2020.

Sincerely,

John Strand, CEO

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Reference:

Again, the complete (unedited and uncut) report is available to read at:

http://www.strandconsult.dk/sw8487.asp?utm_campaign=23.%20december%202019%20%20Presse%20%20Christmas%20Greetings%20and%202020%20predictions

Upstart Wytec International 5G small cell technology for cable operators

Wytec International, Inc., a small San Antonio based technology company with with 11 employees, is ramping up to bring 5G mobile wireless services to cable operators.  The company wants to upend the MVNO industry in the U.S. so that cable operators are able to compete on par with mobile carriers. That means removing excess costs with which cable operators currently contend.  Wytec owns patented small cell technology now recognized as a key component to delivering 5G fixed and mobile wireless services.

“Our 5G mobile services, offered through a Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) Agreement, will include a three-option plan designed for cable operators to “compete on par” with U.S. mobile carriers,” comments William Gray, CEO of Wytec.

Since the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) awarded Wytec its small cell patent known as the Light-Pole Node (LPN-16) on September 15th 2017, Wytec has been testing its unique features, capable of supporting a robust, “neutral host” dense wireless network, utilizing utility poles as its distribution access throughout America’s cities.  This feature collaborates exceptionally well with cable operators due to its existing utility pole access. In conjunction with its LPN-16 technology, Wytec’s MVNO solution includes carrier “roaming agreements” allowing cable subscribers access to a worldwide mobile network.

Wytec is nearing completion of a multi-test trial in the Central Business District (CBD) of Columbus, Ohio in preparation of securing its first MVNO Agreement to prospective cable operators in early March of 2020.

As Robert Merola, Wytec’s Chief Technology Officer and President of Wytec, states, “Our initial network deployment originates from one of the top ten Tier One providers in the U.S. and will expand accordingly in support of multiple MVNO cable operators throughout the U.S. We are excited to provide 5G services to the cable industry.”

Wytec has invested more than five years advancing its intellectual property related to fixed and mobile wireless distribution. In September of 2017 Wytec was awarded a “utility” patent on its LPN-16 Small Cell technology from the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) clearing a path for the development of its first 5G network deployment in Columbus, Oho.

City of Columbus, <br />Columbus, Ohio

Columbus, OH is the site of Wytec’s first 5G trial

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In June of 2019, the FCC awarded an “experimental use” license to Wytec for the testing of the newly issued Citizens Broadband Radio Service (CBRS) spectrum operating in the 3.5 GHz frequency band. The company plans to add fifteen (15) additional markets under an agreement with the sixth largest cable operator in the U.S. (unnamed).

Wytec has been funding its LPN-16 R&D through private Regulation D 506c PPM Offerings (Wytec’s Pre-IPO Offering) to accredited investors and subsequently filed an SEC S-1 registration (Now Effective) in preparation for listing its shares on a public market.

About Wytec

Wytec International, Inc. is a facilities-based wireless operator located in San Antonio, Texas with wireless networks located in San Antonio, TexasColumbus, Ohio; and Denver, Colorado. Wytec owns six wireless patents with its latest patent focused on 5G small cell technology called the LPN-16. Wytec was named one of San Antonio’s Best Tech Startups in 2018 and 2020 by The Tech Tribune. Learn more at www.wytecintl.com.

Media Contact:
Brianna Lohse, Media Relations
(210) 233-8980
231436@email4pr.com

References:

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/wytec-offers-5g-mvno-services-to-cable-operators-300978257.html

https://www.wytecintl.com/

ITU-R WP 5D Dec 2019 meeting #33: activity related to IMT 2020 RIT/SRIT

by ITU-R WP 5D Chair persons with Editor’s Note (and copy edits) by Alan J Weissberger, IEEE Techblog Content Manager

Main activities of WP5D WG Technology Aspects during meeting #33 (Dec 10-13 in Geneva) were:

i) Review additional materials provided by the candidate IMT-2020 RIT/SRIT proponents ETSI (TC DECT) and DECT Forum, Nufront and TSDSI, per the agreed way forward at the 32nd meeting of WP 5D regarding their respective submissions;

ii) Review of external activities in Independent Evaluation Groups (for candidate IMT 2020 RIT/SRITs) through interim evaluation reports;

iii) Continue work on revision of Recommendation ITU-R M.1457-14 (specification of terrestrial radio interfaces for IMT-2000)

iv) Start working on Report ITU-R M.[IMT-2020.OUTCOME].

v) Start working on Recommendation ITU-R M.[IMT-2020.SPECS].

During this meeting, WG Technology Aspects established three Sub-Working Groups (SWG):

–                 SWG Coordination (Chair: Mr. Yoshio HONDA)

–                 SWG Evaluation (Co-Chair: Ms. Ying PENG)

–                 SWG IMT Specifications (Chair: Mr. Yoshinori ISHIKAWA)

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Review of updated materials of IMT-2020 submissions:

As per the agreed way forward at the 32nd WP 5D meeting regarding candidate IMT-2020 RIT/SRIT submissions of ETSI (TC DECT) and DECT Forum, Nufront and TSDSI, the respective proponents provided updated materials of their submissions on September 10th of 2019.

After review of these updated materials of submissions under the IMT-2020 Process Step 3 – Submission / reception of the RIT and SRIT proposals and acknowledgement of receipt, the meeting determined that the submissions of ETSI (TC DECT) and DECT Forum, Nufront and TSDSI are “complete” per Section 5 of Report ITU-R M.2411 (Requirements, evaluation criteria and submission templates for the development of IMT-2020).

Editor’s Note:  Also see ITU-R Report M.2412: Guidelines for evaluation of radio interface technologies for IMT-2020.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………

During the course of this review, documents for observations on the submissions were updated.

Review of interim evaluation reports:

A workshop on IMT-2020 terrestrial radio interfaces evaluation was conducted at beginning of this WP 5D meeting (Dec 10-11, 2019), where the registered independent evaluation groups presented their activities and findings. In addition, some independent evaluation groups also submitted interim evaluation reports. The meeting reviewed these contributions and recorded them.

Report ITU-R M.[IMT-2020.OUTCOME]:

The meeting created the draft detailed workplan and draft working document towards a prelimininary draft new Report ITU-R M.[IMT-2020.OUTCOME] which will collect outcomes from Step 4 to 7 in IMT-2020 development process. Those two documents were carried forward to the next meeting for further work.

Detailed schedule for development of IMT-2020.SPECS:

Detailed workplan for development of draft new Recommendation ITU-R M.[IMT-2020.SPECS] and its working document were developed in the meeting.  A related liaison statement to the external organizations was also developed.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………..

Editor’s Note: 

IMHO, the IMT 2020.SPECS schedule is NOT realistic, mainly because there isn’t enough time for 5D WG Technology Aspects to evaluate 3GPPs expected Release 16 submission at their June 2020 meeting.  Note that China, Korea and India (TSDSI) have all based their IMT 2020 RIT submissions on 3GPP Release 15 “5G NR” data plane which must be enhanced in IMT 2020.SPECs to meet the ultra high reliability/ultra high latency performance requirements for both the data and control planes.

There are only two more WP 5D meetings in 2020 (see last section below) after the June 2020 5D meeting, yet a complete IMT 2020.SPECs must be submitted by Nov 23, 2020 to ITU-R SG 5 (5D’s parent) for approval.  If not, IMT 2020 will become IMT 2021 (or later if companion IMT 2020 recommendations have not been approved).  What good is it to have a 5G data plane without ultra low latency/ultra high reliability and a 4G (EPC) packet core?  With no 5G network management or 5G security specified (presumably by ITU-T)?

Specifically, what if the 5G Mobile Packet Core (3GPP 5GC), enhanced 5G control plane/signaling, 5G network management, 5G security, etc (all in 3GPP Release 16) are not completed in time to be considered by ITU-R or ITU-T in 2020?

Another danger is IMT 2020.SPECS revision control with multiple RIT submissions dependent on 3GPP 5G NR.  What if some proponents stick with Release 15 NR while others adopt Release 16 NR in July 2020?  And how can all the different proponent IMT 2020 RITs be harmonized to ensure interoperability and roaming?

……………………………………………………………………………………………………..

Objective for the 34th WP 5D meeting – Feb 2020 in Geneva:

The key objectives of WG Technology Aspects for the 34th WP 5D meeting are as follows:

i) Review of external activities and evaluation reports of Independent Evaluation Groups.

ii) Complete evaluation reports summary (IMT-2020/ZZZ).

iii)    Continue working on a new Report ITU-R M.[IMT-2020.OUTCOME].

iv) Continue the work on “Over-the-air (OTA) TRP field measurements for IMT radio equipment utilizing AAS” based on the requested response from 3GPP and expected input from other organisations and administrations.

v) Continue working on revision of Recommendation ITU-R M.1457-14.

vi) Continue working on new Recommendation ITU-R M.[IMT-2020. SPECS]

Submitted by Ying Peng, Chair, SWG Evaluation

…………………………………………………………………………………………

M.[IMT-2020.SPECS]:

Under agenda item 4 (PDN Rec. ITU-R M.[IMT-2020.SPECS]), the meeting received two input contributions from Korea, Japan and China.

Both contributions proposed the detailed work plan for developing the new Recommendation ITU-R M.[IMT-2020.SPECS] and the working document towards a preliminary draft new Recommendation.

The meeting reviewed those proposals and discussed the work plan and contents for the working document and agreed the detailed work plan and the working document towards a PDNR (preliminary draft new report).

Detailed workplan and working document towards PDNR M. [IMT‑2020.OUTCOME]

The meeting created the draft detailed work plan and draft working document towards PDNR M.[IMT-2020.OUTCOME] based on the carried forward document and input contributions to this meeting. Two TEMP Documents were created accordingly and will be carried forward to the next meeting.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Meeting #33 also created a liaison statement to relevant External Organizations (RIT/SRIT Proponents, potential GCS Proponent(s) of IMT-2020) to request the inputs to 34th and 35th meetings in accordance with Doc. IMT-2020/21. WG-IMT Specification seeks approval of this liaison in WG Technology Aspects Plenary and WP 5D Plenary.

Submitted by Yoshinori ISHIKAWA, Chairman, SWG IMT Specifications

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RECOMMENDATION ITU-R M.[IMT-2020.SPECS]:

Detailed specifications of the terrestrial radio interfaces of International
Mobile Telecommunications-2020 (IMT-2020)

Scope:

This Recommendation identifies the terrestrial radio interface technologies of International Mobile Telecommunications-2020 (IMT-2020) and provides the detailed radio interface specifications.

Korea, Japan:

[These radio interface specifications detail the features and parameters of IMT-2020, which enable worldwide compatibility, international roaming, access to the services under the usage scenarios including enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB), massive machine type communications (mMTC) and ultra-reliable and low latency communications (URLLC).]

China:

[These radio interface specifications detail the features and parameters of IMT-2020. This Recommendation includes the capability to ensure worldwi.de compatibility, international roaming, access to enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB), massive machine type communications (mMTC) and ultra reliability and low latency communications (URLLC).]

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………

For more details on skeleton IMT 2020.SPECs and related work plan, please see:

China ITU-R WP5D submission: work plan and working document for IMT-2020.SPECS

 …………………………………………………………………………………………

Because of their ultra critical importance we repeat the objectives of the last three WP 5D meetings in 2020:

Meeting No. 35 (Jun. 2020, [China])

1   Receive and review information, including the texts for its RIT/SRIT overview sections, List of Global Core Specifications and Certification B by GCS Proponents[1].

2   Reach its conclusion on the acceptability of the proposed materials for inclusion in the working document towards PDN Rec. ITU-R M.[IMT-2020.SPECS].

3   Finalizes the working document including specific technologies (not necessarily including the detailed transposition references) and provisionally agree for promoting the document to preliminary draft new Recommendation.

4   Provide and send liaison of the provisionally agreed preliminary draft new Recommendation ITU-R M.[IMT-2020.SPECS] to the relevant GCS Proponents and Transposing Organizations for their use in developing their inputs of the detailed references.

Meeting No. 36 (Oct. 2020, [India])

1   Update PDNR if there are modifications proposed by GCS Proponent.

2   Perform a quality and completion check of the provisionally agreed final draft new Recommendation ITU-R M.[IMT-2020.SPECS] without the hyperlinks.

3   Have follow-up communications initiated with GCS Proponents and/or Transposing Organizations, if necessary.

Meeting No. 36bis (Nov. 2020, Geneva)

1   Receive Transposition references and Certification C from each Transposing Organization.

2   Perform the final quality and completeness check (with detailed transposition references) of the preliminary draft new Recommendation and promotes it to draft new Recommendation.

3   —>Send the draft new Recommendation ITU-R M.[IMT-2020.SPECS] to Study Group 5 for consideration (at their Nov 23-24, 2020 meeting).

[1]   If the GCS Proponentrnal (potential GCS Proponent) decides to use DIS style, it doesn’t need to submit List of Global Core Specifications but needs to submit full materials for describing its RIT/SRIT in the Recommendation and Form B.

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AT&T and Verizon to use Integrated Access and Backhaul for 2021 5G networks

AT&T sketched out its plans to start testing Integrated Access and Backhaul (IAB) technology during 2020, saying it can prove a reliable backhaul alternative to fiber in certain cases, such as expanding millimeter-wave locations to reach more isolated areas. Verizon also confirmed, without adding any details, that it plans to use IAB, which is an architecture for the 5G cellular networks in which the same infrastructure and spectral resources will be used for both access and backhaul.   IAB will be described in 3GPP Release 16 (see 3GPP section below for more details).

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“Fiber is still required in close proximity to serve the capacity coming from the nodes, so if it can be extended to each of the nodes, it will be the first choice,” said Gordon Mansfield, VP of Converged Access and Device Technology at AT&T. in an statement emailed to FierceWireless.

“From there, IAB can be used to extend to hard to reach and temporary locations that are in close proximity. As far as timing, we will do some testing in 2020 but 2021 is when we expect it to be used more widely,” he said.

Verizon also told Fierce that it has plans to incorporate IAB as a tool. It doesn’t have any details to share at this time, but “it’s certainly on the roadmap,” an unknown Verizon representative said.

Earlier this year, Mike Dano of Lightreading reported:

Verizon’s Glenn Wellbrock said he expects to add “Integrated Access Backhaul” technology to the operator’s network-deployment toolkit next year, which would allow Verizon to deploy 5G more easily and cheaply into locations where it can’t get fiber.

“It’s a really powerful tool,” Glenn Wellbrock, director of architecture, design and planning for Verizon’s optical transport network, explained during a keynote presentation here Thursday at Light Reading’s 5G Transport & the Edge event.

Wellbrock said IAB will be part of the 3GPP’s “Release 16” set of 5G specifications, which is expected to be completed by July 2020. However, Wellbrock said it will likely take equipment vendors some time to implement the technology in actual, physical products. That means 2020 would be the earliest that Verizon could begin deploying the technology, he added.

Wellbrock said IAB would allow Verizon to install 5G antennas into locations where routing a fiber cable could be difficult or expensive, such as across a set of train tracks.

However, Wellbrock said that IAB will be but one tool in Verizon’s network-deployment toolbox, and that Verizon will continue to use fiber for the bulk of its backhaul needs. Indeed, he pointed out that Verizon is now deploying roughly 1,400 miles of new fiber lines per month in dozens of cities around the country.

He said Verizon could ultimately use IAB in up to 10-20% of its 5G sites, once the technology is widely available. He said that would represent an increase from Verizon’s current use of wireless backhaul technologies running in the E-band; he said less than 10% of the operator’s sites currently use wireless backhaul. He said IAB is better than current wireless backhaul technologies like those that use the E-band because it won’t require a separate antenna for the backhaul link. As indicated by the “integrated” portion of the “integrated access backhaul” moniker, IAB supports wireless connections both for regular 5G users and for backhaul links using the same antenna.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

According to 5G Americas, the larger bandwidths associated with 5G New Radio (NR), such as those found in mmWave spectrum, as well as the native support of massive MIMO and multi-beams, are expected to facilitate and/or optimize the design and performance of IAB.

5G Americas maintains that the primary goals of IAB are to:

  • Improve capacity by supporting networks with a higher density of access points in areas with only sparse fiber availability.
  • Improve coverage by extending the range of the wireless network, and by providing coverage for isolated coverage gaps. For example, if the user equipment (UE) is behind a building, an access point can provide coverage to that UE with the access point being connected wirelessly to the donor cell.
  • Provide indoor coverage, such as with an IAB access point on top of a building that serves users within the building.

5G Americas also said that in practice, IAB is more relevant for mmWave because lower frequency spectrum may be seen as too valuable (and also too slow) to use for backhaul. The backhaul link, where both endpoints of the link are stationary, is especially suitable for the massive beam-forming possible at the higher frequencies.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………

3GPP Release 16 status of work items related to IAB:

(Note: Study is 100% complete, but others are 0% or 50% complete):

750047 FS_NR_IAB … Study onNR_IAB 100%
820170 NR_IAB-Core … Core part: NR_IAB 0%
820270 NR_IAB-Performance 850002 … CT aspects of NR_IAB 0%
830021 FS_NR_IAB_Sec … Study on Security for NR_IAB 50%
850020 … Security for NR_IAB 0%
850002 … CT aspects of NR_IAB 0%

References:

https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/at-t-expects-to-test-iab-2020-use-it-more-widely-2021

https://www.lightreading.com/mobile/5g/verizon-to-use-integrated-access-backhaul-for-fiber-less-5g/d/d-id/754752

China to launch first private 5G satellite by end of 2019

Sources: China Daily/Asia News Network and Beijing Daily (see References blow)

China’s first private 5G low-orbit broadband satellite has passed factory tests and is expected to be launched at the end of the year, chinanews.com reported.  The 5G satellite is expected to be put into orbit via Kuaizhou-1A (KZ-1A) rocket by the end of December.

It is China’s first satellite developed by a commercial aerospace company GalaxySpace and weighs approximately 200 kg.  The launch will be the first Q/V band and 200-kilogram private (non-government owned) satellite.

China’s first private 5G satellite manufactured by GalaxySpace has rolled off the production line. (Photo – China News Service)
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With an orbit altitude of 1,200 meters, it will cover 300,000 square kilometers, roughly equivalent to 50 Shanghai cities.  The satellite will gradually provide 5G signal services to various places through ground stations. From this starting point, China has  taken the first step in its 5G “space communications” journey.

The satellite, made by Galaxy Space, will be launched via the domestically made KZ-1A carrier rocket at the end of December.  Xu Ming, founder of GalaxySpace, said the launch of the satellite could mark the first step of its “space internet” project.  The company wants to develop more low-cost, high-performance 5G satellites in the future, so as to fill digital gaps and connect the world with the 5G satellite network, he added.

“The coverage of 5G signals from the sky is huge, and the signals of each 5G low-orbit broadband satellite can evenly cover a range of 300,000 square kilometers. Large cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen can easily achieve full coverage for autonomous driving, aircraft, ships, high-speed rail And other mobile platforms to provide high-speed, stable, low-latency 5G network connection services. “Liu Chang said.

“China Telecom has proposed to promote the integration of mobile phone communications and satellites through software and hardware technologies such as mobile phone multi-mode.” Biqi, the chief expert of China Telecom and a member of Bell Labs in the United States, who is participating in the World 5G Conference, told reporters that Among the operators, China Telecom is currently the only operator with satellite spectrum related resources.

In order to make commercial use of 5G satellite signals as early as possible, Liu Chang said that Galaxy Aerospace is indeed expected to cooperate with operators.

Low-orbit broadband communications satellites could overcome challenges that ground base stations currently confront in covering areas such as deserts and the ocean, and shed light on those living in places where communication signals rarely reach, the report said.

References:

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2019/12/13/china-to-launch-first-private-5g-satellite

http://bjrb.bjd.com.cn/html/2019-11/23/content_12431015.htm

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201912/12/WS5df20a57a310cf3e3557dc80.html

 

 

ITU-R Schedule for completion of IMT-2020.SPECS; Workshop Results

Schedule for Detailed specifications of the terrestrial radio interfaces of International Mobile Telecommunications-2020 (IMT-2020) – IMT-2020.SPECS:

Meeting No. 33 (Dec. 2019, Geneva)

  1. Develop a detailed work plan
  2. Develop a working document towards PDNR M.[IMT-2020.SPECS]

Meeting No. 34 (Feb. 2020, Geneva)

  1. Review the work plan, if necessary
  2. Continue developing the working document towards PDNR M.[IMT-2020.SPECS]
  3. Receive and take note of “Form A”, in order to determine the structure of the Recommendation
  4. Provide and send liaisons to RIT/SRIT Proponents and GCS Proponents

Meeting No. 35 (Jun. 2020, [China])

  1. Receive and review information, including the texts for its RIT/SRIT overview sections, List of Global Core Specifications and Certification B by GCS Proponents1
  2. Reach its conclusion on the acceptability of the proposed materials for inclusion in the working document towards PDNR M.[IMT-2020.SPECS]
  3. Finalizes the working document including specific technologies (not necessarily including the detailed transposition references) and provisionally agree for promoting the document to preliminary draft new Recommendation
  4. Provide and send liaison of the provisionally agreed Preliminary Draft New Recommendation ITU-R M.[IMT-2020.SPECS] to the relevant GCS Proponents and Transposing Organizations for their use in developing their inputs of the detailed references

Meeting No. 36 (Oct. 2020, [India])

  1. Update PDNR if there are modifications proposed by GCS Proponent
  2. Perform a quality and completion check of the provisionally agreed final draft new Recommendation ITU-R M.[IMT-2020.SPECS] without the hyperlinks
  3. Have follow-up communications initiated with GCS Proponents and/or Transposing Organizations, if necessary

Meeting No. 36bis (Nov. 2020, Geneva)

  1. Receive Transposition references and Certification C from each Transposing Organization
  2. Perform the final quality and completeness check (with detailed transposition references) of the preliminary draft new Recommendation and promotes it to draft new Recommendation
  3. Send the draft new Recommendation ITU-R M.[IMT-2020.SPECS] to Study Group 5 for consideration

1____________________ If the GCS Proponentrnal (potential GCS Proponent) decides to use DIS style, it doesn’t need to submit List of Global Core Specifications but needs to submit full materials for describing its RIT/SRIT in the Recommendation and Form B.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Workshop on IMT-2020 terrestrial radio interfaces evaluation (10 to 11 December 2019, Geneva, Switzerland):

ITU-R Working Party (WP) 5D started the evaluation process for Independent Evaluation Groups (IEGs) as of its 31st meeting in Oct. 2018, in conjunction with the ongoing IMT-2020 development under Step 3 and Step 4 of the IMT-2020 process.​

Working Party 5D has received, at its July 2019 meeting, several candidate technology submissions for IMT-2020 from six proponents, under Step 3 of the IMT-2020 developing process. ​

WP 5D held a workshop on IMT-2020, focusing on the evaluation of the candidate terrestrial radio interfaces at its 33rd meeting taking place December 2019 in Geneva, at which interim evaluation reports are expected. This will help the IEGs understand the details of the proposed candidate technologies, and interact amongst themselves as well as other WP 5D participants. This workshop is a continuation of the previous one on IMT-2020 held in 2017, Munich, which addressed the process, requirements, and evaluation criteria for IMT-2020 as well as views from proponents on the developments of IMT-2020 radio interfaces and activities of the IEGs.

https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-R/study-groups/rsg5/rwp5d/Pages/ws-20191210.aspx

December 12, 2019 UPDATE:

See Comment in box below this article for disposition of TSDSI, ETSI/DECT Forum, and Nufront IMT 2020 RIT self evaluations.  They have not “satisfactorily fulfilled Section 4.3 for the self-evaluation,” which means that the respective IMT 2020 RIT submissions will not be progressed at this time by WP 5D.

Analysis and results of FCC Auction 103 for 5G mmWave Spectrum

The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) commenced its latest 5G mmWave spectrum auction today. This morning, Auction 103 bidding began on spectrum in the upper 37 GHz, 39 GHz, and 47 GHz bands.  Auction 103 is the largest auction of millimeter wave spectrum the FCC has conducted. The Commission is making 3,400 MHz of millimeter-wave spectrum available through this auction.   At the end of the day there were $715,333,400 in second round bids at Auction 103, which had two rounds of bidding on Tuesday.  It’s moving to three rounds on Wednesday. Real-time results from the auction are available here.

After Round 1 in Auction 103, spectrum was selling for just $0.000931 per MHz-POP compared to $0.001606 per MHz-POP at the same point in Auction 102. “With 3400 MHz of spectrum available and just 35 bidders competing, it will be a struggle for Auction 103 to reach anywhere near the disappointing $0.009112 per MHz-POP that Auction 102 reached after 91 rounds,” wrote Sasha Javid, COO at the Spectrum Consortium, in a blog post.  “I think it’s safe to say they’re going to try to do this faster than the previous auctions,” he added, referring to the number of rounds per day. Javid is tracking the latest auction on his website.   Javid said he suspects the FCC will stick with three rounds for a few more days but will increase the number of rounds per day much faster than in previous millimeter wave auctions. “I think it’s safe to say they’re going to try to do this faster than the previous auctions,” he said, referring to the number of rounds per day.

The full list the 35 qualified bidders for Auction 103 is here. The FCC won’t release the identities of the bidders until the auction is over. And analysts continue to believe that overall demand for mmWave spectrum is cooling as more and more mmWave spectrum becomes available, and the industry’s attention turns to other types of spectrum — specifically midband spectrum for 5G.

“There’s so much of it [millimeter wave spectrum] that’s already been brought to the marketplace that hasn’t even started to be used yet,” Brian Goemmer, president of spectrum analysis company AllNet Insights & Analyticstold FierceWireless in October.

Analysts at Wall Street brokerage firm Raymond James wrote in an October report that there’s “not much treasure expected in these waters.” They estimate that the FCC’s newest mmWave spectrum auction will raise around $3 billion in total bids — slightly above previous mmWave auctions but well below auctions for mid-band and low-band spectrum.

The FCC has already auctioned a significant amount of mmWave spectrum during its two other auctions: Auction 101, which raised $703 million in bids, and Auction 102, which raised $2 billion in bids. The first round of Auction 101 raised just $36 million in bids, while the first round of Auction 102 raised $284 million in bids.

FCC Chairman Ajit Pai issued the following statement:

Today’s spectrum auction shows that America is continuing to lead the world in 5G, the next generation of wireless connectivity. These airwaves will be critical in deploying 5G services and applications. Auctioning the 39 GHz and upper 37 GHz bands together presents a critical opportunity for 5G deployment as it represents the largest amount of contiguous spectrum available in the millimeter-wave bands.

Notably, we’re setting up the Upper 37 GHz, 39 GHz, and 47 GHz auction to be our second ever incentive auction. This one will be different from the broadcast incentive auction that Congress authorized years ago, but it’ll have the same worthy goal: clearing or repacking existing licensees to make spectrum as useful as possible, boosting competition and benefiting consumers.

Pushing more spectrum into the commercial marketplace is a key component of our 5G FAST plan to advance American leadership in the next generation of wireless connectivity. Earlier this year, we concluded our first-ever high-band 5G auctions of the 28 GHz and 24 GHz bands. Next year, we look forward to initiating two mid-band spectrum auctions—the 3.5 GHz auction on June 25, 2020, and an auction in the 3.7-4.2 GHz band in the latter part of 2020. These and other steps will help us stay ahead of the spectrum curve and allow wireless innovation to thrive on our shores.”

Light Reading’s Mike Dano notes that most of the rest of the world is moving forward with 5G in midband spectrum, not mmWave spectrum. For example, China and South Korea are both mainly using the 3.5GHz band for their respective 5G buildouts.

A recent report from the Global mobile Suppliers Association (GSA) indicates that other countries besides the U.S have a vested interest in mmWave spectrum. GSA’s report on spectrum above 6GHz found that 66 operators across 13 countries hold licences enabling operation of 5G networks using mmWave spectrum, and that 14 are known to be deploying 5G networks using mmWave spectrum.  We analyzed and broke down GSA’s mmWave findings in this IEEE Techblog post.

In an earlier post, we noted that WRC 19 had approved the frequency bands of 24.25-27.5 GHz, 37-43.5 GHz, 45.5-47 GHz, 47.2-48.2 and 66-71 GHz for the deployment of 5G networks (IMT 2020).

………………………………………………………………………………………

Dec 13th Update from Light Reading:

Millimeter Wave Spectrum Auction Blasts Past $1.5B, Shows No Signs of Cooling

The FCC’s ongoing auction of millimeter-wave (mmWave) spectrum this week shot past the $1.5 billion-mark in terms of total bids placed, and the pace of action in the event hasn’t slowed down since it started on Monday. The spectrum will likely be put to use in 5G networks.

According to spectrum expert Stephen Wilkus of Spectrum Financial Partners, bidders in the FCC’s latest spectrum auction have been increasing their bids by 10% to 20% during each of the last nine rounds of bidding. He said that the event, which started Monday, has already exceeded his expectations and appears to be headed toward $3 billion in total bids.

However, analyst Tim Farrar with TMF Associates noted that the auction would have to generate between $7 billion and $8 billion in total bids to reach the same valuations as the FCC’s two prior mmWave spectrum auctions.

The FCC’s Auction 101 for 28GHz spectrum licenses raised $703 million in total bids, while its Auction 102 for 24GHz licenses raised $2 billion in bids. The FCC disclosed the results of those auctions this summer. The agency’s Auction 103, which started Monday, offers an astounding 3,400MHz of spectrum across the 37GHz, 39GHz and 47GHz bands — that’s far more overall spectrum than was available in the agency’s two prior mmWave auctions.

With more spectrum coming to market, the overall demand for the mmWave spectrum is declining. (The FCC just this week took steps to release even more spectrum for commercial uses.)

Wilkus of Spectrum Financial Partners said that the average price for spectrum licenses in the FCC’s ongoing Auction 103 clocked in at just $0.00187 per MHz/POP in round eight, which he said was five times lower than the final price of the 24GHz spectrum auction earlier this year.

At issue is the way the value of spectrum is calculated. “MHz/POP” refers to the amount of spectrum available in a license across how many people it covers. For lowband spectrum like 600MHz, those calculations often sit in the $1 range since 600MHz transmissions can travel across miles of geography, and operators generally buy licenses in the band in blocks of 10MHz. Calculations for mmWave spectrum are much different though, considering transmissions in such spectrum can’t travel more than a few thousand feet, and operators often buy such spectrum in 100MHz chunks. That’s why the FCC’s first two mmWave spectrum auctions ended at just $0.01 per MHz-POP.

“Results after the first round of bidding in the FCC’s Auction 103 appear to indicate that the federal coffers may end up lighter than expected,” wrote Spectrum Consortium COO Sasha Javid on LinkedIn after the first day of bidding in Auction 103. Javid manages some of the spectrum holdings of some TV broadcasters. “Round 1 ended with gross proceeds totaling $637,295,800. While this is more than the approximately $284 million raised after Round 1 of Auction 102 (the 24 GHz auction), it is approximately 40% less on a MHz-POP basis. After Round 1, spectrum is selling for just $0.000931 per MHz-POP, compared to $0.001606 per MHz-POP at the same point in Auction 102. With 3400 MHz of spectrum available and just 35 bidders competing, it will be a struggle for Auction 103 to reach anywhere near the disappointing $0.009112 per MHz-POP that Auction 102 reached after 91 rounds.”

https://www.lightreading.com/mobile/5g/millimeter-wave-spectrum-auction-blasts-past-$15b-shows-no-signs-of-cooling/d/d-id/756295?

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Dec 24th Update from Light Reading:

mmWave Auction Nears $6B, but Action Slows

The FCC paused its millimeter-wave (mmWave) spectrum auction for the holidays, allowing bidders to take a break from their billion-dollar gambles. Action in the auction — which is nearing $6 billion in total bids — is scheduled to resume Jan. 6.

Already the auction has surpassed some initial estimates that pegged total bids topping out at $3 billion.

However, it appears that the event is slowly cruising toward a finish. “Incremental gross bids by round had been climbing uphill, but then started going downhill fast in recent rounds,” noted the analysts at Wall Street research firm Raymond James in a note this weekend to investors.

https://www.lightreading.com/mobile/5g/mmwave-auction-nears-$6b-but-action-slows/d/d-id/756484?

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Jan 22, 2020 Update from RCR Wireless:

mmWave auction activity surges as FCC pushes toward conclusion

Auction total hits $7.5 billion, as bidders scoop up licenses in smaller and rural markets

A nudge from the Federal Communications Commission has prompted a surge in bidding activity in the ongoing millimeter wave spectrum auction, with bidders broadening their interest to include licenses in geographic areas which they had ignored until this point.

That hasn’t moved the bid total by much, though, with gross proceeds having crept up from around $7.4 billion last week to  $7.5 billion as of the end of round 76 on Wednesday. No bidding was held on Monday due to the federal holiday.

As of Tuesday, the FCC began requiring that bidders use 100% of their eligible bidding activity, instead of the 95% that had been previously required. It’s a use-it-or-lose it scenario in which bidders who don’t use all of their bidding units risk having their eligibility for bid units decreased until it’s in line with their activity, a move which the FCC noted in an auction announcement could “possibly [curtail]or [eliminate]the bidder’s ability to place additional bids in the auction.”

In response, the number of spectrum “products” with more bidding demand than license supply has jumped, from low double-digits late last week to nearly 300 as of the end of round 76. Auction 103 is using a clock format for its first phase, in which bidders compete for the license type and location they desire, with prices automatically increasing each round, until bidders’ demand for licenses at a certain price matches the supply. At that point, the clock phase with end and an assignment phase for specific spectrum blocks will follow.

While major urban market licenses were bid up quickly and then mid-sized markets followed, licenses with low demand have been those in lightly populated, rural and remote areas, and U.S. island territories. There are 832 total spectrum products (the MN and P licenses in each of the 416 geographic Partial Economic Areas) available in the auction, and as of the close of round 76, 284 of those had greater demand than supply, 545 had demand equal to supply and just three had demand less than supply.

Last week, around 40 licenses had no demand at all, according to analysis from Sasha Javid, COO at the Spectrum Consortium and former chief data officer and legal advisor on the FCC’s Incentive Auction Task Force; that figure has since dropped to zero licenses with no demand.

There are still 35 qualified bidders competing in Auction 103.

Stephen Wilkus, CTO at Spectrum Financial Partners, has been tweeting his auction observations and opined on Tuesday that the push from the FCC “will pressure the auction to end in the next few rounds.”

Another five, 30-minute rounds of bidding are scheduled for Thursday, but the FCC has held off on scheduling rounds for Friday as of yet.

More than 14,100 licenses are up for grabs across three mmWave bands in Auction 103: the upper 37 GHz band (37.6-38.6 GHz), the 39 GHz band (38.6-40 GHz) and the 47 GHz band (47.2-48.2 GHz). The licenses are based on a Partial Economic Area geographic basis which divides the country into 416 sections.

There is more spectrum available at 39 GHz than in the other two bands, with 14 blocks of 100 megahertz available, or 5,824 individual licenses. The 47 GHz and upper 37 GHz bands each have 4,160 licenses available, or 10 blocks of 100 megahertz in each PEA. The FCC has divided the spectrum into two categories of licenses: 24 100-MHz licenses in the 37 and 39 GHz frequency blocks, the MN or M/N licenses, and ten 100-MHz licenses in the 47 GHz frequency block, the P licenses.

The FCC has authorized either fixed or mobile use in the bands, and the commission has emphasized the sheer amount of spectrum available: at 3,400 megahertz, Auction 103 puts up the largest amount of spectrum ever offered in an auction.

mmWave auction activity surges as FCC pushes toward conclusion

 

References:

https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DOC-361255A1.pdf

https://sashajavid.com/FCC_Auction103.php

https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/auction-103-concludes-second-round-715m-bids

https://www.lightreading.com/mobile/5g/surprise!-with-$637m-in-auction-bids-demand-for-mmwave-spectrum-continues/d/d-id/756202?

GSA Report: Spectrum Above 6 GHz & related FCC Activity

WRC 19 Wrap-up: Additional spectrum allocations agreed for IMT-2020 (5G mobile)

 

Information on FCC Auction 103 is available at: https://www.fcc.gov/auction/103/factsheet

To learn more about the FCC’s 5G efforts, please visit www.fcc.gov/5G

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia telco Optus claims ‘world first’ 5G data call over 2300 MHz spectrum

Optus, Australia’s second largest telco (Telstra is #1), says it is the first telecommunications network operator in the world to achieve a 5G data call over 2300 MHz spectrum, completing the test call in Sydney via pre-standard 5G equipment from partner Ericsson.

According to Optus its unique ownership of both 2300MHz and 3500MHz spectrum means that it will be able to build a “true dual band 5G network which will ultimately provide customers with even more capacity and more coverage on 5G than a single band 3500MHz 5G today.”

“There is strong industry interest in the use of the 2300MHz band for 5G and as the only telecommunications operator in Australia to currently have access to this band in metro capital cities, it’s great to be leading the way with testing and trialing this for future 5G deployment,” said Dennis Wong, Optus managing director networks.

“With its lower frequency the 2300MHz spectrum band will, in the future, ultimately offer our customers even greater speeds as well as providing greater coverage depth enabling even more customers to benefit from 5G services.

“We are actively pushing forward with our robust 5G deployment plan utilizing the 3500MHz spectrum band and have more than 300 5G sites now live. At this stage we are working towards deploying our 2300MHz spectrum some time during 2020 which together with our existing 3500MHz spectrum will offer our customers a world-leading 5G experience both in the home and on the go.”

Optus says it currently has more than 300 5G cell sites live across Sydney, Brisbane, Perth, Melbourne, Adelaide, Canberra and other important Australia locations in NSW, Victoria and Queensland.  The company currently offers 5G Home Broadband service with a 50Mbps Satisfaction Guarantee.  It plans to deliver 1,200 5G sites by March 2020.

Optus Mobile Tower

Optus Mobile Tower – Mt Sylvia, Queensland, Australia
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Media enquiries:
Anna Garcia
Optus Corporate Affairs
Tel: (02) 8082 7850
media@optus.com.au

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References:

https://www.optus.com.au/for-you/5g

https://www.optus.com.au/about/media-centre/media-releases/2019/12/optus-completes-worlds-first-5g-data-call-over-2300mhz-spectrum

https://www.optus.com.au/about/media-centre/media-releases/2019/01/Optus-5G-Whiz

 

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